Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions

[arthuro]

HAL's poor track record casts shadow on French fighter-jet deal

[..]During the ongoing negotiations, Dassault refused to take responsibility of aircraft that would be produced by HAL, though it will give product support. It insisted on signing separate contracts for 108 and 18 aircraft.The defence ministry, however, made it clear it would not be possible to change the terms of the contract as outlined in the request for proposal issued in 2007.
Sources said the differences have been resolved and the negotiations have moved forward. But that has not taken away the fact that HAL's existing capacity to absorb technology remains in doubt, a fact the IAF is still coming to terms with in the case of Sukhois.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/in ... -deal.html

[arthuro]

Looking at the way they have squandered a lot of potential clients, Dassault is very much capable of messing this one up big time, I hope they do since on the long run it would be better for us. We could go for FMS and save billions on the long run. US would make a far better strategic partner than France ever was. One has to be realistic, takes time for a proper relationship to mature and such a deal would ensure a new level of trust and confidence with Unkil.

FMS is nice and simple but you can say goodbye to ToT with the US.

As far as France is concerned as a strategic partner it was precisely one of he reason that lead India to go with Dassault as previous experiences have been satisfactory which collides directly with your personnal opinion. The US are a bigger risk for India...France is a smaller country and it is certainly easier for India to pressure France than the US.

[RoyG]

What sort of ToT are the French offering us? ToT has become = to assembly in the Indian context.

[NRao]

The risk that the US posed will not be there for some time to come. In fact (said this before) there is a reluctant convergence between India and the US - it cannot be avoided.

The points you make are old stuff, MAY NOT apply in the next few decades. And there are plenty of reasons for them.

This is not a knock on France (or for that matter any other nation) - just the dynamics.

Whatever the reasons are France in the recent past has not been a good player for India. For where India is today and where she is going France needs to change her stance for everyone's sake. On the Rafale topic France is taking too short a term view - including the selection of the JV partner in India. And in the processes is neglecting the longer one.

Whatever happens, the window is closing and no bold, red fonts will help. Times have changed and people need to keep up.

[NRao]

HAL's poor track record casts shadow on French fighter-jet deal

[..]During the ongoing negotiations, Dassault refused to take responsibility of aircraft that would be produced by HAL, though it will give product support. It insisted on signing separate contracts for 108 and 18 aircraft.The defence ministry, however, made it clear it would not be possible to change the terms of the contract as outlined in the request for proposal issued in 2007.
Sources said the differences have been resolved and the negotiations have moved forward. But that has not taken away the fact that HAL's existing capacity to absorb technology remains in doubt, a fact the IAF is still coming to terms with in the case of Sukhois.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/in ... -deal.html

How can they resolve the issues and yet have concerns about quality of production? The ONLY issue has been the quality of production.

[arthuro]

The risk that the US posed will no not be there for some time to come. In fact (said this before) there is a reluctant convergence between India and the US - it cannot be avoided.

The points you make are old stuff, MAY NOT apply in the next few decades. And there are plenty of reasons for them.

This is not a knock on France (or for that matter any other nation) - just the dynamics.

Whatever the reasons are France in the recent past has not been a good player for India. For where India is today and where she is going France needs to change her stance for everyone's sake. On the Rafale topic France is taking too short a term view - including the selection of the JV partner in India. And in the processes is neglecting the longer one.

Whatever happens, the window is closing and no bold, red fonts will help. Times have changed and people need to keep up.

I think most people are guessing too much and over reacting to every single articles that most of the time repeat themselves creating a "halo" of worrying news when there is actually nothing new.
The current issue between Dassault and HAL is nothing extraordinary in the frame of normal negotiations and dassault has in fact a long term view of the contract anticipating potential responsabity and penalties issues. Every sensible economic organization would do that. I don't understand the "emotional" arguments arguing Dassault is foolish whatsoever...External observers are simply oversensitive which is in way understandable after so many years waiting.

[PratikDas]

It will become emotional for Dassault and the French if the contract falls apart. Simple.

[NRao]

I think most people are guessing too much and over reacting to every single articles that most of the time repeat themselves creating a "halo" of worrying news when there is actually nothing new.
The current issue between Dassault and HAL is nothing extraordinary in the frame of normal negotiations and dassault has in fact a long term view of the contract anticipating potential responsabity and penalties issues. Every sensible economic organization would do that. I don't understand the "emotional" arguments arguing Dassault is foolish whatsoever...External observers are simply oversensitive which is in way understandable after so many years waiting.

Not/Never AFTER responding to a RFP.

I support Dassault on the concerns of quality, economics, risks, etc.

But I am opposed to Dassault because they signed the RFP.

Dassault/France MUST abide by the RFP. There should not be an exception to it - economics or not. It is too late to make those arguments at this stage and request two separate contracts.

[NRao]

IF Dassault requests two contracts - meaning that the RFP is not valid any more, then India should have the option of looking at other options.

There was a time to make the concerns known, that time has gone by.

Now stick to the RFP or let us move on.

[Will]

Looking at the way they have squandered a lot of potential clients, Dassault is very much capable of messing this one up big time, I hope they do since on the long run it would be better for us. We could go for FMS and save billions on the long run. US would make a far better strategic partner than France ever was. One has to be realistic, takes time for a proper relationship to mature and such a deal would ensure a new level of trust and confidence with Unkil.

Why are you so intent in putting our Ba**s in unkils hands when everyone knows that unkil has a fetish for squeezing any ba**s he can get his hands on from time to time? He dosent even trust his pet poodle (read the island nation). What makes you think he will trust us?

[RoyG]

Will,

Congress neutered India in 2004.

[SaiK]

we neutered ourselves by self moratorium procedures.

[member_20292]

HAL's poor track record casts shadow on French fighter-jet deal

[..]During the ongoing negotiations, Dassault refused to take responsibility of aircraft that would be produced by HAL, though it will give product support. It insisted on signing separate contracts for 108 and 18 aircraft.The defence ministry, however, made it clear it would not be possible to change the terms of the contract as outlined in the request for proposal issued in 2007.
Sources said the differences have been resolved and the negotiations have moved forward. But that has not taken away the fact that HAL's existing capacity to absorb technology remains in doubt, a fact the IAF is still coming to terms with in the case of Sukhois.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/in ... -deal.html

The dailymail is as credible a source, as Don, Ashi, septimus P or any of our esteemed worthies. Kindly bear in mind.

[Rishirishi]

Dassault is doing India a favor. HAL is a very very poorly run company, has a very bad record (as do most PSU,s)

The french are afraid that HAL can turn their sky dragon into a mud elephant. RIL did not have any experience in building oil refineries, but they did manage to put up the worlds most cost effective one. They did not know anything about mobile telephony, they did not know anything about oil exploration..... See a pattern here. Where are BSNL, ONGC, Indian Oil etc compared to RIL

Tatas did manage to create TCS, Tata Steel, Telco, etc and even managed to turn arround Jaguar ltd.

Both companies have mature organizations which can handle the entire task of managing the Rafael. And do not get surprised if they manage to improve upon the Rafael, or even build the next generation plane.

Personally I think Tata would be best suited, as the have a very ethical record, are global leader in steel (Former corus), TCS, know how to manage large It systems, Telco has vast experience in manufacturing.

[sourab_c]

Not sure how feasible this is but I would love to see the MOD split the deal between TATA/Reliance and HAL. It would send a strong signal to HAL to get their act together when a private company is in competition and it may be the spark that the private industry needs to foray into developing such complex systems in the future on their own.

[NRao]

Did HAL just a bad company? Strange that Daussalt and all are waking up in 2013 and finding out that HAL is bad. Was HAL bad all these years when the RFP was written and the trials went on and the winner of the MMRCA competition was announced?

What good is all that work that went into the selection when the effort had "HAL" in it and not one person shouted it was a bad deal? What good is Dassaults signatures if we were to let them do what they please - now?

IF we all agree HAL is bad, then we need to restart the MMRCA process. Start a new RFP and this time put "RIL" in there. And replace incompetency with corruption.

[SaiK]

It is a joke that Dassault thinks India would do a U turn on HAL, and go aping on RIL. It is better they lose their stupidity and the order, and take a look at EADS or the worst case, cancel this, focus on Kaveri and LCA.

[sourab_c]

^ Nobody is saying HAL is bad, but it could be better (like any other PSU) and maybe Dassault didn't do its homework and got to know HAL only after they were selected and had to do feasibility studies. Or maybe it was MOD's fault for projecting HAL for such a task when really it can not be done without pushing deadlines. Either way, issuing a new RFP would jeopardize national defense in the coming years.

I am in full favor of Kaveri + LCA. $20 billion dollars will do wonders to our indigenous manufacturing (and not just in defense).

[ShauryaT]

Scrap Rafale, Viva Tejas!

The UPA can approve Rafale’s $22 bn contract and benefit France. Or, it can choose Tejas that can revive a comatose Indian aircraft industry.

With the larger air intake and the slight upward curvature of its wingtip, Mk-II Tejas, experts believe, has a better angle of attack (in excess of 28 degrees) with heavier payload than what Rafale can manage. The larger, three-metre longer, version of the Mk-I LCA, able to carry a bigger weapon load (five tons for Mk-II to Rafale’s stated six tons, which will be lesser because the European ambient conditions it is built for don’t obtain here), and has similar range, about 600 kms, and can be inducted into service in less time than the Rafale will take to roll out of HAL lines. Further, with a cranked-arrow delta wing with canards, the Mk-II will be superior to the Rafale in manoeuvrability. The basic Tejas Mk-I is already entering Limited Series Production (LSP) as prelude to full production. It will not be difficult to speedily establish a separate development and production line for Mk-II. In fact, HAL has shown confidence to reject European offers of help to set up the Tejas production infrastructure.

[rajanb]

The risk that the US posed will no not be there for some time to come. In fact (said this before) there is a reluctant convergence between India and the US - it cannot be avoided.

The points you make are old stuff, MAY NOT apply in the next few decades. And there are plenty of reasons for them.

This is not a knock on France (or for that matter any other nation) - just the dynamics.

Whatever the reasons are France in the recent past has not been a good player for India. For where India is today and where she is going France needs to change her stance for everyone's sake. On the Rafale topic France is taking too short a term view - including the selection of the JV partner in India. And in the processes is neglecting the longer one.

Whatever happens, the window is closing and no bold, red fonts will help. Times have changed and people need to keep up.

I think most people are guessing too much and over reacting to every single articles that most of the time repeat themselves creating a "halo" of worrying news when there is actually nothing new.
The current issue between Dassault and HAL is nothing extraordinary in the frame of normal negotiations and dassault has in fact a long term view of the contract anticipating potential responsabity and penalties issues. Every sensible economic organization would do that. I don't understand the "emotional" arguments arguing Dassault is foolish whatsoever...External observers are simply oversensitive which is in way understandable after so many years waiting.

+1
Indeed that people are overreacting. And let us not be naive. The competition are capable of colouring the reports we read. Haven't we heard so many times about the Rus and the EFs saying we still have hope.

This is a normal thing in contract negotiations. What does not bode well is that babudom, if the reports are correct, insisting that a vendor be responsible for the manufacturing process done by another company. Accountability and responsibility will be filled with so many loopholes, reflecting the tenets of lacklustre weak management.

I would rather, HAL set up a good quality testing and compliance process for all things supplied by Dassault,and then be held responsible for how they implement it.

This would alleviate our oft repeated moans of the the quality of all things HAL.

[chetak]

It is a joke that Dassault thinks India would do a U turn on HAL, and go aping on RIL. It is better they lose their stupidity and the order, and take a look at EADS or the worst case, cancel this, focus on Kaveri and LCA.

Why is it a joke??

dassault have seen personal interest dominate over Indian national interest in every case, case after case. Shady local mothers who rip off the Indian system as a matter of right and entitlement. They are fully justified in thinking that they too can rip off the system by paying off a few of these very mothers.

Their influential partner has developed the art of ripping off to a very fine level. Why do you think that dassault went with them in the first place??

dassault has already secured the meat and now for dessert they want all the cream.

Not an iota of difference between dassault and their jv partner as far as business goes.

[Austin]

Just one of the many hicups we have seen with MMRCA deal in past 12 years ...this too will pass away , If IAF wants Rafale then IAF will get it as simple as that.

[Sagar G]

Where are BSNL, ONGC, Indian Oil etc compared to RIL

Good question take a look yourself

BSNL

ONGC

Indian Oil

RIL

Also take a look at Reliance Petroleum

If all these data is able to cross your density then I think you might want to re-frame your question.

People here like it or not but many of our DPSU's are 800 lb. gorillas. There capability is limited by their leadership and unions.

Did HAL just a bad company? Strange that Daussalt and all are waking up in 2013 and finding out that HAL is bad. Was HAL bad all these years when the RFP was written and the trials went on and the winner of the MMRCA competition was announced?

All this drama only goes to show (AGAIN !!!!) that the west can only do big talk about sharing technology but at the end of the day will play bitch. I was sure since the beginning that all those sugar coated talks about "partnership", "friends", "allies", "ToT" is just BS and will quickly disappear when the winner is declared. I find it very strange that even senior posters were living in cloud cuckoo land thinking that Dassault would honour the deal and would be willing to share the tech we want. I now sincerely hope that this deal never materializes since unless and until the entire system isn't given a very nasty jolt which will leave a very bitter aftertaste IAF/MoD aren't going to realise the importance of indigenization.

[member_20453]

The only deal that makes sense is an FMS in this case simply because its standard a deal and mostly transparent and we can certainly have local assembly of the aircraft with a good amount of TOT. Actually when it comes to full-tot 'everyone' will throw a hissy fit. Might as well go for the most economical option over its life time. We do more excercises with Unkil than we have ever done with any one else including our long term partner Russia. Its obvious that though we take cautious steps with unkil we have certainly not hesistated in buying hardware and it is slowly moving away from the usual non lethal stuff to heavy hitting fire power.

As times goes on we are stuck with depleted squadron strengths. We are squandering away billions for an aircraft that has little or no overall advantage over the SH International. Buying the SH would give us a jack of all trades, a true workhorse, reliable and rugged with tons of off the shelf tech and lots of new features. We would have deliveries at a great speed and savings of billions over decades of engine commonality with LCA mk-2 and AMCA (since Kaveri no where in sight and EPE would be a perfect fit)

No matter how much we'd like to think that we are autonomous in our actions vis a vis any confrontation Cheen or Pak, the reality remains we still need Unkil's blessing/notification for any full scale operation against either of our adversaries. With Unkil diverting a significant amount of its Naval power to the Pacific, it will rely thoroughly on India to keep up its end of holding down the fort in the Indian ocean so lets stop with senseless ranting about our relationship with unkil.

[Austin]

I think F-18 will only come into the picture if a Political Decision is made to go with F-18 or if negotiations with Rafale and Typhoon fails.

F-18 is a hot potato as US would prevent it getting hard wired for nuclear role and the nuances of CISCMO EUMA needs to be looked at , it wont be a straight decision and will be a political one with all its pros and cons.

Plus IAF has no experience of operating a US type like it has French or European type basicly a long working relationship.

I would bet my money and says US Fighter aircraft will be very low on the list.

If Mukesh Ambani reputation is any thing to go by he would easily have MOD Antony replaced if he is sticking point , That man is too powerful and has direct access to any one in political circle.

I know of a senior Congress leader who told MA can get access to SG and MM any time he wants to without going through his secretary or other staff and SG travels frequently in MA business jet .....its seems you can count on finger the number of people who has such access.

[NRao]

If Mukesh Ambani reputation is any thing to go by he would easily have MOD Antony replaced if he is sticking point

That is what I have been told.

Dassault's choice is a perfect one. Time is all that matters to them. The loser in all this will be the IAF - they will get an old technology. Dassault + RIL + some corrupt politicians will get the $$$.

IF India has any ability to think they would dump this deal. RIL in any equation is bad. So I was told way back.

[NRao]

Because it is so late in the game - the next gen planes are nearly upon us - I feel the MMRCA should be a lowest possible technology for the lowest price, to get the squadrons filled up, quickly.

The F-16 (US frame + engine, rest as much from Israel). The US should agree to that (I think).

[Austin]

The IAF likes the Rafale that is the reason it was selected among 6-7 aircraft including the proven US F-18 and F-16. It is also based on IAF experience in operating M2K for 3 decades and prior to that IAF operated French aircraft and it works even though it may be bit expensive.

So IAF is the net gainer since Rafale has won the race , Now for the nitty gritty that is MOD job to negotiate a deal that is favourable to Indian industry and more specifically MIC.

In the good old days we used to just buy Aircraft what IAF wanted and be happy about buying the best , in more favourable case we would buy Lic production , thats how M2K was bought. So it took care of IAF needs but not the over all need of Indian MIC.

Now we look at purchases more wholistically so we have TOT for better maintenance of product inhouse without running to the vendor or stocking up spare and then we have offsets what helps in Indian Industry Development or more specifically MIC.

It could be Reliance or it could be TATA or Mahindra who ever is more favourable should get it and move on.

We already got a good aircraft it is just a matter of walking the final mile.

Buying US aircraft comes with its own big risk specially if you have to hardwire it for Nuclear Role and CISMO/EUMA stuff that is another headache .....IAF is better off keeping politics , rules and obligation out of the picture and focus on how to fully utilise the fighter aircraft be it Conventional or Nuclear role.

[Austin]

Because it is so late in the game - the next gen planes are nearly upon us - I feel the MMRCA should be a lowest possible technology for the lowest price, to get the squadrons filled up, quickly.

The F-16 (US frame + engine, rest as much from Israel). The US should agree to that (I think).

I am a great fan of F-16 arguably one of the greatest single engine fighter of all times whose production ran in thousand and calling it lowest possible technology would be like an insult being compared to piggy JF-17.

Though F-16 Block 60 or 80 is heavy it still packs a lot of advanced avionics that is comparable to other 4th Gen fighter.

Since the eventual requirement of MMRCA would be 200 aircraft or close to that number , we could have broken MMRCA into two aircraft 120 Rafale and 80 F-16 , LM could have delivered all the 80 in 4-5 years time frame by which time Rafale production would be started in India.

We could have bumped up the squadron strength with a cost effective single engine fighter and would have started getting in twin engine Rafale , in a way its a strategic opportunity lost by selecting a single fighter for such a huge order.

[NRao]

My conundrum is that IAF will get the FGFA just around when they will get the MMRCA.

Q: Is it REALLY worth paying some $20 BILLION for the MMRCA when - perhaps (granted there are no sureties) - India could get a next gen plane for right around the same price?

I am dead sure that 20 will bloat to some unimaginable figure in a few years. It has to. (Look at the M2K "upgrade" price - unreal.)

IF there was a way I would dump this entire MMRCA effort. It has come a bit too late.

I love the idea of diverting the funds to a home grown plane. Will it happen? More than likely not - no politician will make money on it.

All I see when someone mentions MMRCA is - refill-those-squadrons-right-now.

[Austin]

FGFA is a work in progress and like any high technology program things dont go as scripted even for the advanced aerospace country .

Rafale assures an aircraft thats matched in quality and capability it take care of depleting squadron strength and also allows for unforeseen delays in future programs like FGFA.

Rafale is proven aircraft and in service with French Airforce , IAF experience with French Aircraft has been exceptionally good so it is not a risky affair for IAF to put its egg in the french basket.

The cost of $22 Billion is the entire program cost which includes Lic Production , TOT and building manuf plant in India to build Rafale under lic .... which would occur in next 2 decade , plus the maintenance , MRO and stuff you need to support any aircraft.

The cost looks high because Military Inflation gallops like a Wild Horse and every year you can expect the same aircraft built to cost 3 to 5 % more for the same reason and this cost is spread out across 15-20 plus years ...... it is just the cost you would pay for F-18 or Typhoon plus or minus a little.

FGFA cost $35 billion for the same reason because it would be a $100 million plus aircraft now and then later it would keep increasing due to Mil Inflation plus add other cost that has been mentioned for Rafale.

[Sancho]

Government hopeful of $15 billion Rafale fighter jet deal going through

Earlier this month, in a rather unusual move, the Indian Air Force (IAF) strongly refuted a report that it was working on a Plan B should its negotiations fail to buy 126 combat jets from Dassault Aviation...

...The statement was unusual for two reasons. Usually, it's the Defence Ministry that handles clarifications and responses to reports about acquisition of equipment and technology. Also, this is the first time that a press note has been officially issued about plans for procurement...

...The press statement issued earlier this month, sources say, was triggered by concerns in the Defence Ministry and the Air Force that rumours were being spread by those with 'vested' interests or rival manufacturers to prevent the deal with Dassault Aviation from being signed...

http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/gover ... ugh-353301

[vic]

Scrap Rafale, Viva Tejas!

The UPA can approve Rafale’s $22 bn contract and benefit France. Or, it can choose Tejas that can revive a comatose Indian aircraft industry.

[quote The basic Tejas Mk-I is already entering Limited Series Production (LSP) as prelude to full production. It will not be difficult to speedily establish a separate development and production line for Mk-II. In fact, HAL has shown confidence to reject European offers of help to set up the Tejas production infrastructure.

[/quote]

+1

[SaiK]

yes! more than the +1 voting, I want a $15b plan for LCA and LCA++/AMCA.

If HAL is < Private, then Rafale is all BSing this. There is none established Private >= HAL as of now.

[Christopher Sidor]

^^^
Whether we should be spending 10-15 billion USD dollars on a Rafale or on LCA is moot. The LCA/Tejas is a Light fighter. Rafael falls under a medium category. Apples and Oranges. But if the question were to be that should we divert this money towards AMCA then the answer would be different.

[Singha]

imo it would be wise to treat the Tejas as a bedrock F16/F15 type pgm and commit long term some $15 b to it over 15 yrs. keep producing and improving in tranches including enlarged mk3 model. if necessary import the radar and munitions but commit solid funds to those as well. with a fleet strength of around 400, any radar or munitions maker in world will be happy to sell us their kit while domestic kit matures.

producing 100 tejas, 100 amca, 100 this, 100 that -- never builds economy of scale or reduces costs ... never gives the chance for tranche based improvements or a chance for domestic projects to mature and deployed in fielded product.

[vic]

Cancel Rafale and go for

LCA Mark-1 around 100

LCA Mark-2 around 200

LCA Mark-3 with GE 414 EPE around 300

LCA Mark -4 semi stealth with Kaveri engine around 400

[SaiK]

LCA Mk3 should not be LCA, but M4K-ish tech demo- twin engined one. there is no looking back on that on this puppy!

Remember, without LCA, there is nothing called Su30 MKI
Without LCA mk-3, there would be nothing called AMCA!!

[Victor]

We should drop the term "LCA" and adopt a more businesslike one like HF-xx which will leave more room for outside speculation on its intended capabilities and also expand our thinking. The days of aspiring to a khadi nano fighter good only for Republic Day fly pasts are over.

[NRao]

Cancel Rafale and go for

LCA Mark-1 around 100

LCA Mark-2 around 200

LCA Mark-3 with GE 414 EPE around 300

LCA Mark -4 semi stealth with Kaveri engine around 400

@ 8 a year: 125 years
@16: 63 years
@ 40: 25 years

Need to produce at 60-80 a year.

Just saying.