Managing Chinese Threat

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 20 Jun 2013 07:57

Let us look at the utility of RoC as far as India is concerned. Assume that a conflict were to break out around McMohan line in oct-2013. Let us examine how RoC will be able to help us

1) By tieing up troops on the eastern sea board of PRC?
Not possible. Taiwan is in no position to tie up any significant amount of PLA divisions

2) By tieing up PLAAF assets on easten sea board of PRC?
Not possible.

3) By providing moral, political support
In the current political environment RoC's support means squat. What matters is what Japan, US, EU, UK, Russia, South Africa, Brazil, Saudi Arabia stand.

4) By providing material support
There is practically no comnanality between the weapon systems that we use and what the armed forces of RoC uses. Moreover due to long SLOC these shipments would be at the mercy of PLAN/PLAAF in south china sea.
In case of finance, RoC is not such a big economy, unlike Japan, that it can help us financially.

RoC and PRC share no land border, unlike Vietnam, Russia and Mongolia. RoC's company are interested inIndia because the Indian labour cost is less compared to PRC. But it implies that they are looking at Indian colies.

And is it not significant that KMT was recently voted back to power by the very same people who aspire for RoC to transform into Republic of Taiwan?

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 20 Jun 2013 08:33

Ahead of key visits, China's Vice Pres. says new leadership keen to push forward India ties - Ananth Krishnan, The Hindu

Ahead of key visits by top Indian officials in coming days, China’s Vice-President Li Yuanchao on Wednesday said the new Chinese leadership wanted both countries to push their strategic ties to a higher level.

Mr. Li, who sits on the 25-member Politburo, made the comments to a visiting delegation of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), led by General Secretary Prakash Karat. {We don't know what else he said to them and what these Indian Communists told their mentors}

The Chinese Vice-President told the delegation he was optimistic about the future of bilateral ties. During talks, he also called on the visiting CPI (M) delegation to “strengthen contact” with the Communist Party of China, even as he praised “left wing parties like the Communist Party of India (Marxist) [for playing] an important role in safeguarding China-India friendship”.

Mr. Li is seen as a reform-minded, key figure in the next line of leadership that will be promoted in 2017, when five of the seven members of the current Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) will retire. President Xi Jinping voiced his backing for Mr. Li to take a place alongside him and Premier Li Keqiang on the next PBSC by choosing him as his Vice-President despite some opposition from retired leaders. Unusually, 80 dissenting votes were cast against Mr. Li when his appointment as Vice-President was formalised at the National People’s Congress session in March.

Mr. Li said on Monday India and China would “need to work hard to push their strategic cooperative partnership for peace and prosperity to a higher level,” the State-run Xinhua news agency quoted him as saying. {What is this 'strategic partnership' that he is talking about ? In whose imagination does this 'strategic partnership' exist between India and China ?}

He said he saw “new progress” in ties with India “since the beginning of the year,” {that culminated in the 19 km intrusion and three-week stand-off exhibiting the 'new progress in ties'} suggesting that the new leadership had taken ties forward.

However, the three-week-long stand-off in Depsang, sparked by a Chinese incursion on April 15, has dampened expectations for ties in the coming year. While Chinese officials say the peaceful resolution of the stand-off had underscored the effectiveness of mechanisms in place, officials in India acknowledge that the Depsang incident has left considerable mistrust.

Both sides will have the opportunity to address this issue in coming weeks, with National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon expected to travel to China, followed by a visit by Defence Minister A.K. Antony expected to take place between July 4 and 7. {Antony must make India's position clear to miffed Indians first before embarking on the journey to the Middle Kingdom. One does not expect SS Menon to say anything.}

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 20 Jun 2013 11:27

NYT: Why India Trails China
by Amartya Sen

India’s underperformance can be traced to a failure to learn from the examples of so-called Asian economic development, in which rapid expansion of human capability is both a goal in itself and an integral element in achieving rapid growth. Unlike India, China did not miss the huge lesson of Asian economic development, about the economic returns that come from bettering human lives, especially at the bottom of the socioeconomic pyramid.

rajrang · Post by **rajrang** » 20 Jun 2013 16:27

Deleted.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 21 Jun 2013 08:01

China’s Arctic Strategy

http://thediplomat.com/2013/06/20/china ... -strategy/

China has certainly been busy since it won observer status at the May Arctic Council summit in Kiruna, Sweden.

First, Yu Zhengasheng, Chairman of China’s Political Consultative Conference, visited Finland, Sweden and Denmark with an eye to boosting general trade and cooperation, particularly in the Arctic. China then announced an expanded research and scientific polar institute that will collaborate with Nordic research centers to study climate change, its impact and desired Arctic policies and legislation. With this, Beijing made clear it did not intend to be a passive member of the Council; it planned to have a real say in its future proceedings. China National Offshore Oil Corporation meanwhile announced a deal with Iceland’s Eykon Energy firm to explore off Iceland’s Southeast coast....

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 21 Jun 2013 13:25

Our North-Western states are reporting 14000 people missing with most of the roads washed away. If today PLA/PLAAF were to stage the incursion in Ladakh or in Arunachal again, where would our IA and IAF choppers be deployed? And how would we respond. The utter failure of our civilian and paramilitary forces to pick up the baton and free up our Armed Forces for defence of our borders is laid thread bare. I recall going from Chandigarh to Manali in the past 2-3 years. The road practically run parallel to the river through out the way. Hell even an airport was built on the banks of a river. No wonder we are forced to rely on choppers. And transporting stuff via choppers is expensive. Extremely expensive.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 21 Jun 2013 14:57

Taiwan-China Sign Pact to Open Services Sectors - Straits Times

Taiwan and China have signed an agreement to open up their service sectors, further deepening their ever closer trade and economic ties.

The two sides signed the pact on Friday in Shanghai following two years of negotiation.

Effective late this year, China will allow Taiwanese firms to conduct online shopping and offer medical care, tourism and other services on the mainland, Taiwan's semi-official Straits Exchange Foundation said on its website.

Taiwan will allow mainlanders to run businesses like cargo transport, beauty shops, funeral morgues and dock facilities, it said.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 21 Jun 2013 15:36

China denounces Philippines of illegal reef occupation - Straits Times

China condemned on Friday what it called the "illegal occupation" of a disputed coral reef by the Philippines, and vowed to protect its sovereignty after Manila moved new soldiers and supplies to the remote location.

The Second Thomas Shoal, known in China as the Ren'ai reef, is at the centre of the latest territorial dispute between Beijing and Manila. Both countries have been locked in a decades-old territorial squabble over the South China Sea.

The Philippines is accusing China of encroachment after three Chinese ships, including a naval frigate, converged just 5 nautical miles (9 km) from an old transport ship that Manila ran aground on a reef in 1999 to mark its territory.

"China's determination to safeguard its national sovereignty is resolute and unwavering and (we) will never accept any form of illegal occupation of the Ren'ai reef by the Philippines,"Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told a regular briefing.

One admires the Chinese intransigence. It has so many disputes with almost all its neighbours, some of them like with India being quite serious. Yet, it does not let go an opportunity to dare these nations and keep asserting its claims.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 21 Jun 2013 18:55

Does China mix business with politics ? - Mandip Singh, IDSA

In an apparently conscious decision, the Government of India blanked out the media from the deliberations, border meetings, diplomatic parleys and formal talks that brought an end to the Chinese intrusion in Ladakh . This led to intense speculation in the media with some quarters terming the Indian response to be soft and weak. Amongst the theories doing the rounds, one that some analysts seemed to endorse was that ‘upping the ante’ against China would jeopardise our bilateral trade, already under strain due to a yawning deficit of $29 billion in favour of China.1 The question that begged response is – does China feel like wise? Does China go soft when trade is threatened? Does China mix business with politics? The answers to these questions drew some interesting conclusions while researching China’s trade figures with those countries with which it has strained political relations.

Interesting.

Arihant · Post by **Arihant** » 22 Jun 2013 02:26

Christopher Sidor wrote:Let us look at the utility of RoC as far as India is concerned. Assume that a conflict were to break out around McMohan line in oct-2013. Let us examine how RoC will be able to help us

1) By tieing up troops on the eastern sea board of PRC?
Not possible. Taiwan is in no position to tie up any significant amount of PLA divisions

2) By tieing up PLAAF assets on easten sea board of PRC?
Not possible.

3) By providing moral, political support
In the current political environment RoC's support means squat. What matters is what Japan, US, EU, UK, Russia, South Africa, Brazil, Saudi Arabia stand.

4) By providing material support
There is practically no comnanality between the weapon systems that we use and what the armed forces of RoC uses. Moreover due to long SLOC these shipments would be at the mercy of PLAN/PLAAF in south china sea.
In case of finance, RoC is not such a big economy, unlike Japan, that it can help us financially.

RoC and PRC share no land border, unlike Vietnam, Russia and Mongolia. RoC's company are interested inIndia because the Indian labour cost is less compared to PRC. But it implies that they are looking at Indian colies.

And is it not significant that KMT was recently voted back to power by the very same people who aspire for RoC to transform into Republic of Taiwan?

Let me address this last point first. Elections in Taiwan are held over the barrel of a gun - the Chinese gun. If you observe Taiwanese society up close, you will notice that they live under constant threat of Chinese attack. This manifests in interesting social phenomena. One is the phenomenon of "parachute" kids, where kids are sent to study, migrate and acquire citizenship in destinations such as the US, Australia and New Zealand as a means of getting out of military service obligations, and as a means of ensuring that they get to live a "safer" life. The other is this sense one gets that Taiwanese tend to live like there is no tomorrow (as a fundamentally Confucian, East Asian, society, the manifestations are muted).

The second aspect of Taiwanese elections is that they end up being referendums on economic survival strategies. In the absence of alternatives, China is the _only_ economic survival strategy available to them. KMT promises them economic goodies by cosying up to China. The DPP cannot offer anything remotely as sweet. Their attempts to develop India as an alternative economic survival strategy over their period in power (2000 - 2008) fell flat - thanks to our reticence.

The third aspect of Taiwanese elections is that they are typically very close, with the electorate nearly split down the middle.

In relation to your questions (1) - (4), the answer is yes. Taiwan is able to offer all of those kinds of help, as much as Vietnam and Japan are able to offer those kinds of help.

Taiwan's offensive military capabilities are well known.

Even under a China-leaning Ma Ying Jeou government, consider this:
Taiwan’s military deterrent remains strong, Ma says

Arihant · Post by **Arihant** » 22 Jun 2013 02:28

SSridhar wrote:Taiwan-China Sign Pact to Open Services Sectors - Straits Times
Taiwan and China have signed an agreement to open up their service sectors, further deepening their ever closer trade and economic ties.

The two sides signed the pact on Friday in Shanghai following two years of negotiation.

Effective late this year, China will allow Taiwanese firms to conduct online shopping and offer medical care, tourism and other services on the mainland, Taiwan's semi-official Straits Exchange Foundation said on its website.

Taiwan will allow mainlanders to run businesses like cargo transport, beauty shops, funeral morgues and dock facilities, it said.

The longer we remain reticent, the more of this we will see....

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 22 Jun 2013 09:02

Upstaging India, China to Get 20% Stake in Russian LNG Project - Vladimir Radyuhin, The Hindu

China has upstaged India in the battle for Russian energy resources .

China National Petroleum Corp. on Friday signed an agreement with Russia’s biggest private gas producer Novatek to acquire a 20 per cent stake in the latter’s LNG project in Yamal Peninsular in the Arctic region of northeast Siberia, and to secure long-term LNG supplies from the plant to be built in 2018.

The same day, another Chinese company, Sinopec, signed a contract with Russia’s State-owned Rosneft for the supply of 365 million tonnes of crude over the next 25 years at a cost of $270 billion.

ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL) had bid for up to 20 per cent stake in the Yamal project in a tie-up with Petronet LNG and Indian Oil Corporation.

However, Novatek’s deal with China leaves only a 9 per cent stake up for grabs, as France’s Total has another 20 per cent in the project and Novatek wants to keep 51 per cent for itself.

The Yamal field has proven and probable reserves of 907 billion cubic metres of natural gas as of December 31, 2012.

India has made few inroads in the Russian energy market after OVL acquired a 20 per cent stake in the Sakhalin-1 hydrocarbon block for $1.7 billion in 2001. Imperial Energy, which OVL bought in 2009, has proved a liability, as production keeps falling, with a further 17 per cent decline to 5,12,900 tonnes planned for this year.

Two years ago, Indian energy companies signed four preliminary deals with Russia’s Gazprom for annual supplies of up to 10 million tonnes of LNG for up to 25 years. But so far only one deal has been firmed up, with GAIL India signing a 20-year contract with Gazprom last October for the supply 2.5 million tonnes of LNG.

India also seeks a stake in Sakhalin-3 oil and gas project and in an LNG project Gazprom plans to build in Vladivostok.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 22 Jun 2013 16:50

China Sets Summit Preconditions for Japan - Japan Times

As a condition for holding a Sino-Japanese summit amid a dispute over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, Beijing demanded after Tokyo effectively nationalized the islets last September that Japan acknowledge a territorial dispute exists and agree on a 12-nautical-mile no-entry zone around the territory, sources said Friday.

Japan rejected such demands for “shelving” the dispute over ownership of the uninhabited Japanese-controlled islets, which are claimed by China and known there as Diaoyu, according to the sources, who are involved in bilateral relations.

Tokyo’s position is that the islets are historically part of Japan and thus no dispute exists over the territory, which it initially placed under its control in 1895.

Japan and China have not held a summit for more than a year and talks have been suspended on an official agreement to build a “maritime liaison mechanism” to avoid an accidental clash.

A year ago, Japanese and Chinese defense officials had agreed to start such talks.

Amid rising tensions and fearing a possible clash around the islets after the Japanese government’s purchase of three of the five Senkaku islets from a private Japanese owner last September, Tokyo had by last December sent Vice Foreign Minister Chikao Kawai and Shinsuke Sugiyama, head of the Foreign Ministry’s Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau, separately to China.

They made diplomatic efforts to help the Japanese and Chinese leaders reach an agreement on the maritime liaison mechanism, including a hotline, which was largely agreed upon in working-level talks last June.

Even after the change of government last December with the inauguration of the administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, China has continued to call for Japan to acknowledge that a territorial dispute exists as a precondition for holding a summit.

Diplomatic talks by high-level officials of the two countries have also been suspended, tripartite summit talks involving Japan, China and South Korea expected to be held this spring were not held, and Japan-China diplomacy has remained deadlocked.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 22 Jun 2013 19:39

China shield washed away

New Delhi, June 19: The Indian military has assessed that a major portion of its roads leading to the China border through Uttarakhand, a substantial portion of its defences and installations in the middle sector of the Line of Actual Control with China and also roads leading from the India-Nepal border westwards to Pakistan have been damaged in the rain and floods since June 16.

The Indian Air Force this morning flew a newly acquired C-130J Hercules aircraft with electro-optical infra red devices to assess the damage to both strategic installations and also to civilian life and property over Uttarakhand and Himachal. Till this evening the photographs and data collected were still to be analysed.

These strategically important roads are vulnerable to the vagaries of the weather all too often. The army’s roads in North Sikkim are yet to be completely rebuilt since the earthquake year before last. The roads in the middle sector in Uttarakhand were still fragile since the rebuilding after cloudburst in August and September 2012. This time the rains lashed the region much ahead of time.

The middle sector of the LAC has reported the least number of misunderstandings between the Indian and Chinese militaries. But sensitivities are running high since the Eastern Ladakh incident at Raki Nala in April and May this year.

The army has assessed that the logistics and supply lines of its 9 (Independent) Brigade headquartered in Joshimath were severely constrained. A soldier, Subedar J.S. Bagane Shivaji, from the western command composite signals unit who was sent to rebuild a BSNL telecom tower, was killed in a rockfall at Dublim under the Pooh brigade in Himachal.

The principal builder and maintainer of roads in the zone is the military agency, the Border Roads Organisation (BRO). The BRO was understood to have reported major losses in three project areas: Project Deepak, that covers most of Himachal, Special Task Force Hirak, that covers roads along and leading to the border with Nepal and the frontier with China, and Project Shivalik, that has the largest area of responsibility from Hardwar in the plains (in the south) to the Mana Pass (with Tibet) in the north.

In the Project Shivalik area, on the Rishikesh-Joshimath-Mana road, the BRO reported 26 major landslides, formation-breaches at five locations, a washout of the Rudraprayag bye-pass and full formation washouts at two places. Between Rishikesh and Dharasu, there were 27 major landslides and formation-breaches at five locations. Between Dharasu and Gangotri, there were 10 landslides and four formation-breaches. Between Rudraprayag and Gaurikund, part of the way used by pilgrims to Kedarnath, there were four major landslides, four formation-breaches, a cracked abutment and the washout of a steel bridge.

Arihant · Post by **Arihant** » 22 Jun 2013 20:19

An interesting discussion on identity politics from Taiwan:
‘Chinese people’: A mere ploy for politics

rajrang · Post by **rajrang** » 24 Jun 2013 10:33

John Kerry in India - policy statement

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 733775.cms

Quoting - "valued India's role in ensuring a stable Asia even as he maintained that India and the US should come together as partners and not as a threat to any country"

Statements made a year ago as seen in the example link below do not contain the explicit "not as a threat to any country"

http://csis.org/publication/panetta-india-why-now-what

“The United States is also investing in a long term strategic partnership with India to support its ability to serve as a regional economic anchor and provider of security in the broader Indian Ocean region.”

" ..... the new U.S. ambassador to New Delhi, Nancy Powell emphasized that her top objectives would include, “Expanding our defense cooperation across all the military services and at all levels… Encouraging India’s role in promoting a peaceful, prosperous, and democratic Indian Ocean region " "

" ........... with India emerging as an important “provider of security in the broader Indian Ocean region.” "

The above potential role of India in the Indian Ocean is no longer being mentioned.

Does the "not a threat to any country" suggest that India will now be on its own in its confrontation with China?

Is this a subtle but remarkable shift in policy from the statements of last year when India was being increasingly viewed as an ally in a US effort to build a coalition of countries in Asia to deal with China's arrogance? This was to be expected after India's pontification to Leon Panetta last June on the need to not confront China.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 24 Jun 2013 19:40

Fishermen alarmed by Chinese vessels under Lankan flag - KA Martin, The Hindu

Fishermen’s organisations and boat owners in Kerala are wringing their hands over Sri Lankan government’s recent decision to let more than a dozen Chinese fishing vessels to operate under the island country’s flag under an arrangement called ‘distant water fishing’.

The arrangement lets a country’s fishing fleet to scoop up marine wealth from another country’s exclusive economic zone for money.

On Saturday, a statement by Matsya Thozhilali Aikya Vedi said the move to let Chinese vessels operate close to common fishing ground between India and Sri Lanka would affect the livelihood of thousands of fishermen.

The Chinese vessels, reported to be more than 150 feet long, would sweep clean India’s best deep-sea fishing resource in the Wadge Bank, south of Cape Comorin and extending up to Sri Lanka over an area of about 4,000 sq. miles, which was a common fishing ground for the two neighbouring countries, claimed Charles George, convenor of the Aikya Vedi.

He said one of the resources that would be hauled away in mammoth scale by the industry-scale boats operating in the sea off India would be oceanic tuna,

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 25 Jun 2013 13:59

Australia seeks Triton Superdrones for Indian ocean Region overwatch
While ostensibly for China, India must be aware of the double-edged sword.

Rising Indian Ocean rivalries as China seeks to safeguard key energy lifelines loom behind an Australian push for a $3 billion fleet of maritime superdrones, which will likely boost intelligence sharing with the United States.

With elections looming and pressure for budget savings, the purchase of up to seven MQ-4C Triton unmanned aircraft has emerged as rare point of bipartisan agreement between Australia's Labor government and conservative opponents, but both sides are reluctant to discuss their wider strategic aims.

"There's not a lot of new money in our policy, (but) we are going into Broad Area Maritime Surveillance, the Triton," said conservative defence spokesman David Johnston, who is likely to become defence minister following the Sept. 14 elections.

The Triton, under development by Northrop Grumman, is the size of a small airliner with a 40-metre wingspan. It can cruise at 20,000 metres for up to 30 hours, sweeping a distance greater than Sydney to London with 360-degree radar and sensors including infra-red and optical cameras.

Both the government and opposition say the world's most expensive and advanced Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) will be used mainly to combat asylum seekers arriving in fishing boats from Indonesia and Sri Lanka, and which have become a hot political issue in Australia.

"But it is not about detecting leaky boats. You don't need to spend billions of dollars to do that. This is about maritime security and surveillance in the Indian Ocean," a senior Labor insider with close knowledge of defence planning said.

"This is a force multiplier. It's better to think of Triton as a mobile satellite we can steer around the Indian Ocean," said the source, who declined to be identified because of sensitivity around what will be an Asia-first military purchase.

The U.S. Navy is still testing the Triton and has plans to buy 68, with the first due in service in 2015. Several will be based at Guam, the key U.S. base in the western Pacific, as part of a repositioning of forces in the Asia-Pacific as China's strategic clout expands into the South China Sea and beyond.

Critics of the U.S. "pivot" have warned that sophisticated drone and UAV aircraft could be destabilising as Asian militaries seek to modernise with new submarines, warships and aircraft, including Lockheed Martin's F-35 fighter.

Energy Supply

The Indian Ocean has become one of the world's most vital routes for energy and raw material supply, with over 80 percent of China's oil imports transiting through the area. Japan, India and South Korea are also dependent on Indian Ocean routes. Australia's Labor government, under pressure to make cuts in Australia's $24 billion a year defence budget, has asked the United States for information on the Triton.

But Johnston said a conservative government in Australia, traditionally a close U.S. ally, had already decided on seven to help with border patrols.

"Triton has the endurance to go from Broome (on Australia's northwest coast) or Darwin to Sri Lanka {They are careful to avoid mentioning India}, do a couple of laps, and then come home without stopping," he said.

Both sides are reluctant to mention Chinese ships and submarines as a target of Triton surveillance, as Beijing is Australia's largest trade partner and bristles about Western efforts to contain its growing strategic clout.

Andrew Davies, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said Canberra would be using Tritons for more than just border surveillance, and would push their security envelope well into the Indian Ocean.

One Triton, when complemented by Australia's intended purchase of Boeing P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, can cover almost seven million square kilometres in one mission, twice the surface area of India.

"Tritons will be contributing to the military surveillance picture, and to the extent that Chinese military expansion is one of the things that needs to be kept an eye on, they will be doing that," said Davies.

He said the Tritons would effectively become the southern arm of a broad allied network that would see Canberra exchanging intelligence with the United States, which already rotates Marines and naval ships through northern Australia.

Johnston, whose conservatives have always favoured the tightest possible U.S. alliance, said Australian Tritons would neutralise thoughts in Washington of Canberra's far-flung Cocos-Keeling islands being upgraded as a base for U.S. UAVs in the eastern Indian Ocean, just south of Indonesia.

"Darwin would be much more logical," he said.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 26 Jun 2013 20:18

Since the Taiwan thread has gone dormant:
Taiwan tweaks Beijing by welcoming one of China's worst critics

Taiwan, long overshadowed by political and military rival China, reasserted its individuality Monday by receiving one of Beijing’s worst critics, civil rights activist Chen Guangcheng.

The Chinese lawyer, who moved to the United States last year after escaping house arrest and reaching the US Embassy in Beijing, gave a number of pro-democratic Taiwan speeches on Monday, the first full day of his 18-day trip to advocate more freedoms and civil rights for Chinese people.

His series of speeches and meetings are expected to put a shine on democratic Taiwan by pointing out contrasting curbs on freedoms in Communist China.

“Taiwan’s success with democratization shows that democracy isn’t some kind of so-called Western system in its origin, just one that was led by the West,” Mr. Chen told a news conference on the island that China claims as part of its own territory.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 26 Jun 2013 23:23

Naval Gazing
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... er_in_asia

On June 23, during a visit to New Delhi, Secretary of State John Kerry gave a speech in which he explained the role that India plays in Asia. He mentioned Pakistan six times, climate change eight times, and Afghanistan 12 times. China, Southeast Asia, and East Asia only merited one mention, while the "Look East" Policy -- India's effort to expand its economic and military relationships with East Asian and Southeast Asian nations -- received only two mentions, both in the same sentence. Kerry's speech probably disappointed New Delhi: India no longer wants the world to see it as an inwardly focused nation mired in its own backyard.Indeed, over the last month, India's Navy made goodwill visits to Vietnam and Malaysia; a mid-June trip to the Philippines included "courtesy calls, receptions" and shipboard tours, according to the Inquirer, a Filipino newspaper. In May, for the first time ever, an acting Indian defense minister made an official visit to Australia; the two sides agreed to start annual naval exercises. After a late-May visit to Thailand and Japan, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said that he is "hopeful" of the Look East Policy's future success.The rest of the region, however, should not share Singh's optimism: India's ability to become a major Asian power is constrained by conventional and insurgent threats, resource and organizational limitations, and a chaotic domestic political scene.
Yes, India is modernizing its armed forces. In February, India announced it will spend over $37 billion on its military, a 14 percent increase from last year; for the last three years, it has been the world's largest arms importer. But India's military remains distracted by counterinsurgency operations in the disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir and in the country's restive northeast, as well as by a fractious relationship with Pakistan. And India still lacks the ability to secure its borders. One of the embarrassing takeaways of a border crisis in early May, in which roughly 30 Chinese troops pitched tents 12 miles inside Indian territory, was that India lags far behind China in its ability to move forces into the contested area.Indian strategists place their greatest hopes for influencing Asia's security dynamic on naval power. India's annual naval spending grew from $181 million in 1988 to $6.78 billion in 2012; the navy is now a professional and capable force that, in combination with the United States and other allies, could potentially balance China in the South China Sea.But some Indian strategists and political elites worry about excessively close cooperation with the United States. India's Look East Policy has already created friction with a China worried about being contained. New Delhi is wary of further provoking its neighbor to the north, one of Asia's dominant military powers and one of India's largest trading partners. Both countries have stated that they want bilateral trade to reach $100 billion by 2015, up from $68 billion today; this is particularly important at a time when India's economy is growing at its slowest rate in a decade. And without partners like the United States, the Indian Navy is unable to sustainably project power -- doing so alone would require at least several years of modernization, expansion, and investment in logistics, support, and surface and submarine vessels. Courtesy visits to Manila are not the same thing as deployable military power in the South China Sea.Indian domestic politics present another hurdle. India's defense bureaucracy is slow and inefficient, and an ambitious strategy such as this would require sustained oversight and prodding by powerful politicians. Yet India's most influential elected officials seem focused on the instability of the ruling government and, above all, the 2014 general elections. There is no incentive for Indian politicians to focus on defense policy or alliance strategy. Politicians win votes by distributing patronage, building local alliances with regional political parties, and making appeals to class, caste, language, and religion. As former Chief of Naval Staff Arun Prakash said in May, "Since defense and security have not, so far, become electoral issues," Indian politicians are "happy to leave defense and security matters" to the bureaucracy, which lacks the power to make changes to defense policy. Until India gets its own house in order, Singh's hope that his country's diplomacy "will contribute to peace, prosperity and stability" in the region will continue to ring hollow. In his Sunday speech, Kerry also said that "India is a key part of the U.S. rebalance in Asia." That it is -- and it's not ready to go into Asia alone.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 27 Jun 2013 10:21

Mozambique Gas Deal: How India Can Take on China in Big Oil and Africa - Arijit Barman,Economic Times

From offshore Caspian, the great game between India and China to secure energy acreages around the world just got shifted to the deep waters of Mozambique - home to the world's biggest gas discovery in a decade.

Tuesday finally brought home some good cheer. India managed to consolidate its toehold in the hottest new hydrocarbon frontier: the $2.5-billion acquisition by ONGC Videsh (OVL) and its partner Oil IndiaBSE 3.12 % (OIL) for a 10% stake in a Mozambique gas field.

This is a play for Big Oil. The Rovuma Area 1 block with estimated recoverable reserves of 35-65 trillion cu ft (tcf) of gas is poised to make Mozambique potentially the second largest LNG exporter in the world after Qatar. To put it in context: this is 20 times India's current annual gas consumption and enough to fire 42,000 MW of power plants, more than the total capacity of India's largest power producer NTPCBSE -0.64 %.

India's geographical proximity - you can join our LNG terminals in west coast with a diagonal straight line - also makes us the logical home market for the gas that is to come out five years from now.

But these are exactly the reasons why all the other energy hungry Asian economies have already parked themselves in Mozambique. Earlier, in March, just hours before the deadline for non-binding bids for Videocon's 10% stake in Rovuma were to be submitted, China's largest oil producer, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), picked up an indirect yet highly strategic 20% economic interest in the adjoining block that is manned by Italy's ENI SpA. Thus, in one sweep, CNPC claimed, it got access to close to 75 tcf of gas, or more than Norway's existing reserves.

The stakes are sky-high. And this is where OVL - after its misadventures in Russia and probably in the Balkans too - needs to step on the gas. For the next five years, the game will be as much diplomacy as it will be commercial.

We also need to be mindful of the hard reality: there is no "equity gas" in Mozambique. This means that India, with a 20% economic interest via BPCLBSE 0.73 % and now OVL-OIL, does not have the right to ship back an equal quantum of LNG, commensurate with the companies' stakes. They only have a revenue upside.

But being the second-largest shareholder after the operator Anadarko, the Indian consortium will have a seat - and a significant one too - at the high table. That is leverage worth using to the hilt when it comes to the marketing and gas offtake negotiations that are to crystallise in the coming months.

As an oil industry senior executive explained it, the first cargo of gas will be commercially available in 2018. Till then, India will have to bargain both as a shareholder and a buyer. It's a no-brainer that bigger the offtake commitment, greater the influence. There is also an $18-20 billion capex programme that's to be shared by all.

Today, Mozambique has near-zero infrastructure and need exhaustive drilling, platforms, pipelines and natural gas liquefaction plants with facilities to compress and purify them. At least four such "LNG trains" of five million tonnes are being thought of initially along with a port and a jetty. To make it more intriguing, most of the consortium members lack the expertise to handle such massive buildouts.

There is no Chevron or a BP but possibly Shell will move in as Anadarko too pares its stake in the block. It's absolutely essential to have a credible consortium as natural gas cannot be stored for long, and as we have learnt from KG-D6, one may not get what one sees initially. It's that volatile.

This should also be the worrying bit. With so many moving parts, Indians will have to move nimbly, negotiate harder and work diplomatic channels to do what the Chinese have excelled in: use a heady concoction of debt, oil and influence to win over African hearts and hydrocarbons.

On this kind of realpolitik, our track record isn't very good. Plus, the Chinese endgame in Mozambique is still far from clear. That's all the more reason India act fast and smart - the deal dynamics may change when the plans to work towards a joint field development programme take concrete shape.

India has failed before - remember Maurel & Prom or Petrocas? This time, failure will be costlier.

Arihant · Post by **Arihant** » 28 Jun 2013 04:09

X-posted from the PRC thread:

Agnimitra wrote:X-post from Tibet Shivabhumi thread:

The Economist:
Tibet policy: Bold new proposals
"Welcome signs that some officials are at last starting to question policies on Tibet"
FEW outside China think the Communist Party’s strategy for Tibet is working. A combination of economic development and political repression was meant to reconcile Tibetans to Chinese rule and wean them off their loyalty to the Dalai Lama, the exiled spiritual leader. Instead disaffection is still rife, especially among the young. And all across Tibetan areas of China, Tibetans still display the Dalai Lama’s portrait, sometimes openly. Since March 2011 more than 100 Tibetans—especially in Tibetan areas of provinces bordering what China calls the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR)—have set themselves on fire. Most have done so in part to call for the Dalai Lama’s homecoming. An overwhelming security presence and the Dalai Lama’s commitment to non-violence mean that the unrest is easily contained. Hence little has suggested that China’s leaders are concerned about the bleak implications for the future: that their rule in Tibet can be maintained only by the indefinite deployment of massive coercive force.

So for a Chinese scholar, Jin Wei, who is director of ethnic and religious studies at the Central Party School in Beijing, to call for a “creative” new approach is startling. For her to do so publicly, in an interview this month with a Hong Kong magazine, Asia Weekly, suggests that she has high-level backing.

Here, on Tibet, is at least a hint of a crack in the hardline consensus. Some have detected another in the appointment of Yu Zhengsheng to head the party’s main policy group on Tibet and Xinjiang, a Muslim-majority region in the north-west. Mr Yu is the head of an advisory body designed to promote national unity. Previous heads of the group have been security specialists.

Ms Jin’s analysis, though couched in the terminology of party orthodoxy, is similar to that of many foreign observers. She argues that, by demonising the Dalai Lama, and viewing any expression of Tibetan culture as potentially subversive, the party has turned even those Tibetans sympathetic to its aims against it. The struggle has evolved from “a contradiction between the central government and the Dalai Lama separatist clique into an ethnic conflict between Han Chinese and Tibetans”.

She is not advocating a new soft approach to “political” issues, such as the Dalai Lama’s call for greater autonomy for Tibet and Tibetans’ hankering after a “greater Tibet”—ie, within its historic borders, beyond the TAR. But in fact, most protests in Tibet are not about “politics”, defined like this. Many have been sparked by anger at Chinese repression—of Tibetan culture, language and tradition, or of individual protesters. It is a vicious circle, made worse by anger at the large-scale immigration into Tibet of Han Chinese.

Ms Jin has ideas on how to break the impasse. Talks with the Dalai Lama’s representatives, stalled since the most recent of nine fruitless rounds in 2010, should resume, she says. They should concentrate on “easy” issues first, setting contentious debate about Tibet’s status to one side for now. China should consider inviting the Dalai Lama to visit one of its semi-autonomous cities, Hong Kong or Macau, and eventually allowing him back to Tibet. It should also try to defuse the crisis his death will bring by agreeing with him on a chosen reincarnation from inside China’s borders. Otherwise, China risks having to deal with two incarnations: one it endorses and one in exile who is more likely to be revered by most Tibetans.

The debate Ms Jin’s comments have provoked will not bring any immediate relief to Tibetans in Tibet. The infrastructure of Chinese repression is being enhanced and refined, with the implementation of a new “grid” system of street-level surveillance (see article). Dissenters are still locked up every week.

Moreover Ms Jin’s is still a lone voice, at least in public. Few others seem to realise that a new approach in Tibet is in China’s interest. Not only would it ease tension in Tibet; it would help relations with other minorities in China, make reunification with Taiwan more likely and improve China’s relations with the outside world. The more conventional Chinese view is the one voiced recently by a scholar at a Beijing think-tank: “The old Dalai will die soon. End of problem.” Though the Dalai Lama seems in good health, he turns 78 next month. The hope is that Ms Jin will not be the only Chinese adviser to understand that the dying in exile of this Dalai Lama would not be the end of China’s difficulties in Tibet. Rather, his death risks an explosion of violence and the rekindling of a Tibetan independence movement that is for now kept in check by the Dalai Lama’s search for a “middle way”.

This is a dangerous move that we must counter immediately.

The whole point of the exercise is to ensure that the Dalai Lama's reincarnation is "found" in China. The current trajectory, including explicit moves/statements by the Dalai Lama, was intended to ensure that the successor would be from outside China (and likely India). That scenario has the Chinese panicking - hence this.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 28 Jun 2013 04:37

NSA Shiv Shankar Menon in Beijing for border talks

China is according high importance to national security adviser Shiv Shankar Menon's visit to the country, with Premier Li Keqiang and foreign minister Wang Yi among those scheduled to meet him. Menon will hold negotiations on the boundary issue and lay the ground for defence minister A K Anthony's visit to Beijing early next month.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 28 Jun 2013 13:45

China Does Not Want 'Unexpected Border Incident' Says PLA General - Ananth Krishnan, The Hindu

People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Major General Luo Yuan, one of China’s most recognised military strategists, has said China does not want to see “unexpected” incidents along the disputed border with India and believes that the situation along the boundary could be effectively managed with the right mechanisms in place.

Major General Luo told The Hindu that he did not even see the boundary dispute with India as figuring among China’s top five current military threats or challenges. He identified these threats as the East China Sea, where China is currently engaged in a dispute with Japan; the South China Sea, whose waters and islands are disputed by several countries; and the newly emerging financial, cyberspace and “outer space” threats.

The senior PLA officer is widely known in China as a strategist with hawkish views and a well-connected political background that has allowed him to often break from the official script in voicing his opinions. His father, Luo Qingchang, once headed China’s intelligence agencies and also served as a top official in the State Council, or Cabinet, who advised the former Premier, Zhou Enlai. The younger Luo heads a Centre for World Military Affairs at the PLA’s Academy of Military Sciences. His commentaries often appear in the Communist Party-run outlets such as the People’s Daily and Global Times .

While his views often diverge from, and are significantly more hard-line than, the official position, that Major General Luo has been allowed to express them unhindered is seen by many diplomats here as underscoring his strong political connections as well as the support he enjoys among sections of the party and the military.

For a famed PLA hawk, Major General Luo expressed a surprisingly upbeat view on relations with India. Despite the recent strains after the April 15 Chinese incursion in Depsang that sparked a three-week stand-off, he said he was of the view that relations were “smooth and stable” following Premier Li Keqiang’s visit to New Delhi in May.

“Of course, we are not denying there are some conflicts that exist between us, especially on the border issue,” he said. “But if we both have the will to be peaceful, and to build [an effective] consultation mechanism, we can ensure that the border issue can be managed.”

“We should both manage the border together,” he said, “and neither side should cause trouble. We do not want to see any unexpected incident.”

His comments came a day before India and China hold the 16th round of talks on the boundary issue. On Friday, National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon and his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi, who took over as the Special Representative on the boundary question earlier this year, will meet at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in central Beijing.

Mr. Menon will also meet Premier Li Keqiang and Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his two-day visit, the Foreign Ministry said. His visit is expected to be followed by that of Defence Minister A.K. Antony, who is scheduled to be here between July 4 and 7. Mr. Antony will meet PLA officers and may also meet President Xi Jinping.

The fall-out of the Depsang stand-off, which was sparked by Chinese troops pitching a tent in a disputed area, is likely to cast a shadow over both visits. During Mr. Li’s visit to New Delhi in May, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Chinese counterpart directed the Special Representatives to ensure that such face-offs did not occur in future and examine the incident more closely.

While there are still unanswered questions about what prompted the PLA to spark the stand-off, officials on both sides say the consultation and coordination mechanism largely worked satisfactorily to defuse the row peacefully. However, that the stand-off took as long as three weeks to be defused pointed to gaps in communication, particularly on the Chinese side, where the PLA and the less influential Foreign Ministry often did not appear to be on the same page on certain instances during the stalemate.

While the PLA’s moves have been seen by some Indian analysts as part of a pattern of Chinese assertiveness on display in other disputes, Major General Luo defended China’s actions in the East and South China Seas. Though he did not comment on Depsang, he blamed Japan for sparking the tensions around the Diaoyu, or Senkaku, islands by moving to purchase them last year from their private owner.

He pointed out that China had even made elaborate plans — subsequently cancelled — to celebrate the 40th anniversary of diplomatic relations with Japan last year. Japanese officials, however, say China overreacted to the move, especially since Tokyo was, in a sense, forced to purchase the islands to pre-empt the hard-line Tokyo Governor, Shintaro Ishihara, from doing so.

“On the South China Sea, similar things happened,” Major General Luo said, pointing to a recent incident in which the Philippines shot dead Taiwanese fishermen. “Sometimes, even if a tree likes to stand still, the wind keeps blowing,” he said. “If countries keep provoking China on these issues, we will have to do something to safeguard our national interest. Being prudent does not mean to never wage war. As a soldier, we are under obligation to protect the integrity of our territory.”

Maj. Gen. Luo Yuan may be decribed as 'hawkish' but he is also very clever. His smooth talk hides serious issues. He may not be seeing India-China border dispute in the Top-5, but it will certainly be there in the Top-6.

When he says that 'unexpected incidents' [like Depsang, that is what he means] can be stopped if 'boundary could be effectively managed with the right mechanisms in place', he is in fact referring to the new Chinese fad of BDCA. By this he also implies that the existing mechanisms are insufficient and that showed up at Depsang.

Before the arrival of the Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang in New Delhi on May 19, 2013, the Chinese side had proposed a ‘Border Defence Cooperation Agreement’ (BDCA) on March 4 and insisted that the agreement be signed during Li’s visit. The Indian Foreign Minister, Salman Kurshid, batting for the Chinese, said that the BDCA “rationalizes all the existing arrangements”, though India and China could not sign the agreement during Li’s visit. During the Q&A session after the visit, India’s Ambassador to China, S Jaishankar, said : “The Chinese gave us their draft on the 4th of March. I think we gave them our draft on the 10th May. Obviously now we will be discussing it with the Chinese. Since our draft is pending their consideration, to me it is not at all surprising the matter did not come up because it is still something on which we need to engage them in detailed discussion”The new BDCA is being pushed by China because India has begun to concentrate on its eastern borders (against the usual practice of concentrating on its western borders) in military, infrastructure and logistics terms and China felt compelled to contain it through the means of a new agreement, it having already developed its infrastructure along its side of the border. Some of the clauses it proposed are said to be directed towards this purpose.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 28 Jun 2013 14:21

Uttarakhand Flood Fury Wrecks Key Road to China Border - Economic Times

A strategic road connecting much of the forward areas of Uttarkashi to the China border has been destroyed in the devastating rains and landslides in Uttarakhand and is likely to remain shut for months.

The high-altitude road that is several kilometres long and considered the lifeline for reaching the border areas in this difficult terrain has been damaged at various points. At many places, it has just been washed away, at others, big boulders have broken down the road completely.

The ghosts of the 1962 war are still dancing in these parts of the border. The treacherous terrain and the recent landslides have yet again exposed the extreme folly of not developing the region because of a lopsided fear of Chinese military waves sweeping in through good roads. It was the defeat by the Chinese military that prompted the government not to develop road networks along the China border, but today that decision is haunting the lives of thousands and strategic military posts.

According to local sources, the only way to approach the border posts now is through helicopters, which is also not very easy considering that it is a difficult andhigh-terrain area . Alternate routes on the treacherous terrain is also very difficult and not sufficient to carry a large number of army men or supplies. When asked for its comments, the army headquarters in New Delhi said the Dharali-Nelong stretch, north of Harsil, has witnessed landslides which are normal there. It said all the roads in the area have been washed away, but "foot movement and connectivity are there" . Officers who were on their way to the post have been stranded and are currently helping in relief and rescue operations at Harsil, one of the last cantonment areas in the region . Sources said while adequate supplies and ration was there at the post, a delay in constructing the road could lead to constraints going forward.

The bad weather in the area and the difficult terrain are expected to make this task difficult , and with the monsoon rains around, not much headway is expected here. With winter setting in thereafter, it gets more difficult as the whole area gets engulfed in heavy snow.

Sources said a team specially brought in to construct bunkers in the border post had also been stranded. These have army personnel from the Engineers Corps. The story of Nelong's single road and its destruction represents the strategic fallouts of deadly rains and landslides of last week.

The single most important road on the Badrinath stretch, Rishikesh-Joshimath-Badrinath-Mana road is also broken at various locations. The story isn't very different in other stretches in Uttarakhand. And on the rest of the border with China, it would only take a heavy downpour to expose the poor Indian infrastructure, compared to the sleek connectivity up to the last post on the China side.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 28 Jun 2013 15:21

China Ready to Break New Ground on Border Talks with India

This may be a sensational headline. The new Special representative can be only expected to say nice things which should not be taken literally. After all, Yang Jeichi is renowned to be a tough negotiator. Geostrategically & geopolitically as well, China can be expected to mouth such platitudes. China asked Japan not to drive a wedge in the relationship between India and China (paraphrasing) during the recent visit of Man Mohan Singh there !

We have to wait and watch how the talks progress. After all, China is not even willing to give its maps to us.

China today said it was ready to "break new ground" with India to resolve the boundary dispute as the Special Representatives of the two countries held 16th round of border talks to find a solution to the vexed issue.

"I stand ready to work with you to build on the work of our predecessors and break new ground to strive for the settlement of the China-India boundary question and to make greater progress in the China India strategic an cooperative partnership in the new period," newly appointed Chinese Special Representative Yang Jiechi said here.

Former foreign minister Yang, who took over from the long-standing Chinese Special Representative Dai Bingguo, welcomed his Indian counterpart National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon, saying "the two Special Representatives have a lofty mission and heavy responsibilities".

This is the first meeting of the border talks after the new leadership took over in China in March.

India asserts that the dispute covered about 4,000 km, while China claims that it confined to about 2,000 km to the area of Arunachal Pradesh, which it refers as Southern Tibet.

"First of all let me warmly welcome you to come to China for the 16th round of the Special Representatives meeting on the China-India boundary question," he said, stating that "over the years you have made important contribution to the growth of China-India relations in various capacities."

"You and I have known each other for a long time. We are very familiar with each other and established a good working relationship and personal friendship," Yang said. He also complimented Dai for the work done in the last decade.

Yang recalled the recent visit of Premier Li Keqiang to India stating that it was an important event coming after the meeting between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Durban in March.

Li's visit "injected fresh and strong momentum into the further development of our bilateral relationship," he said.

"The China-India relationship has developed good momentum of development. The Special Representatives meeting is an important exchange and cooperation mechanism between our two countries," he said.

On his part, Menon expressed his pleasure to hold talks with Yang. "You are an old friend and in India you are known for your various contributions you have made to the positive development of our bilateral relations," Menon said.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 29 Jun 2013 18:19

China should accept McMahon Line as border with India: Subramanyam Swamy - ToI

Janata Party president Subramanian Swamy has asked China to accept the McMahon Line as the border with India just as it did in the case of Myanmar to resolve the vexed dispute.

China should accept McMahon Line since it had accepted the same line drawn at the same time in 1912 with Myanmar, Swamy said while speaking on "China's relations with its neighbours" at the 2013 World Peace Forum organised by China's Tsinghua University in association with Chinese foreign ministry.

"Such an acceptance will vastly improve India-China relations," Swamy argued in a lengthy paper presented at the meeting attended by strategic think-tanks from China and a number of other countries.

Coincidentally his comments were timed along with the two-day 16th round of border talks held here since Friday between national security advisor Shivshankar Menon and his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi.

Swamy said unlike Japan, there is no historical legacy in India-China ties that hurts Chinese sensibilities.

"On the contrary for more than two-and-a-half thousand years, India and China, two large neighbours and economic superpowers by the then prevailing standards, have had good and peaceful relations based on mutual respect and cultural exchanges, and in fact never had a single military clash till 1962," he said.

"Chinese grievance is that the border delineated by British imperialists and colonialists and called the Sir Henry McMahon Line was unfair to China, taking advantage of China's then weak position," he said.

"Of course this is a contestable view," Swamy said. "The key question is what prompts today's China in regard to Japan and India, to make a grievance of a long past historical injustice and unequal treaties enforced by imperialists on a weak China, versus what makes China of today to ignore such injustices in case of others such as in the now settled China-Myanmar border dispute accepting the same McMahon Line?" he said.

"Again, why China reached a 'standstill' agreement on the disputes with India and Japan, but on an insubstantial provocation abrogates the agreement and resumes aggressive posturing unilaterally, puzzling the best of China's admirers?" he asked.

All this does not answer the question as why China, a country three times the size of India, and having obtained willingly India's concurrence for Tibet's assimilation into it chose to make the Sino-Indian border an issue of such serious contention and distrust?, he asked.

He said, time has come therefore for Indians too to bring some fresh air to re-assess and formulate India's China policy.

India has to find an accommodation with China without letting its guard down "As we did in the 1950s", he said adding, "I would say that when the risk has been properly factored in, India and China should be strategic partners, not adversaries."

Arihant · Post by **Arihant** » 30 Jun 2013 02:42

Xinjiang, HK can teach Taiwan

Taiwanese cannot be like the Chinese, who have become slaves under thousands of years of traditional Confucian education.
We need to use the blood that pumps in our veins to get rid of this slave mentality, if we are serious about protecting the universal value of human rights.
If peaceful and rational protest does not work, and when sovereignty and human rights are in danger, because those in power use sinister means and violent suppression, all men and women should unite in stronger protest.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 30 Jun 2013 09:09

China terms two day border talks as constructive and fruitful - ToI

China on Saturday described negotiations between state councilor Yang Jeichi and national security advisor Shiv Shankar Menon as "constructive and fruitful" at the end of the two-day 16th round of border talks between the two countries.

A Chinese foreign ministry statement said the two countries agreed to "give full play to the (existing) mechanisms on border-related issues and maintain peace and tranquility in border areas before issues are resolved''. {This is interesting. Is the word 'existing' added by the reporter ? If the word is there in the statement, then it means that India and China have disagreed on the Chinese proposal for the new BDCA. China has been very insistent on that and wanted the agreement signed during Li Keqiang's Deli trip.}

An Indian embassy statement said the officials discussed peace and tranquility in the border areas including possible additional confidence building measures, besides means of strengthening existing mechanisms for consultation and coordination on border affairs and methodology to enhance communications. {The underlined could mean the BDCA was discussed especially because India had sent back the modified draft to PRC in May}

The talks were held in the backdrop of recent Chinese incursion in Ladakh.

The two sides did not comment on any breakthrough on the proposed border defence cooperation agreement, which is being negotiated. The agreement draft, originally proposed by China, will be further discussed during the defense minister AK Anthony's visit to China on July 4.

Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is due to make his first foreign visit to China on the same day.

Observers said China might hold discussions with Islamabad about the draft before taking a final view on it.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 01 Jul 2013 08:37

Chinese Trio Held by Indian Troops near LAC - Business Line

After dealing with the PLA incursion last month, army personnel have now apprehended three persons of Chinese origin along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) carrying political maps in Arabic language in the same area.

The three men, identified as Adil, Salamo and Abdul Khaliq, were nabbed inside the Indian territory on June 12 near Sultanchku and it took nearly 10 days for the authorities to make them give their name, official sources said.

All the three men are Sunni Muslims aged between 18 and 23 with fair complexion but their language was not comprehensible, they said.

The three men — one of whom is one-eyed — were at present in the custody at Murgo post and efforts were on to comprehend their language which did not have any similarity with either Chinese or Balti spoken in Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir’s Baltistan.

It was also not clear where from they had come as the nearest habitation across the LAC was in North of Karakoram Range. Authorities are working on the possibility that they could have entered through either Raki Nallah, Jeevan Nallah or North of Daulat Beig Oldie, where Indian and Chinese troops had a face-off for nearly 21 days from April 15 to May 5.

The three men, who are well built, cannot be interrogated until they are brought to Leh town where translators could be used to understand their language, the sources said.

There was a possibility that the language could be Yarkandi spoken in Xinjiang province, close to Pakistan- occupied-Kashmir and touches DBO tip in north of Ladakh. The area has a huge Uyghur population.

Both summer and winter road connectivity to this post were cut off due to bad weather in Ladakh region this year.

Now the authorities have sought permission to airlift the trio to Ladakh for a detailed questioning.

The Home Ministry had written to the Defence Ministry seeking clearance for a helicopter to ferry the trio, the sources said, adding that it was still awaited.

The three men were carrying a big political map and two smaller versions of the document with Arabic script on it.

Besides this, they were carrying improvised swords and knives, tinned food including egg powder (useful in higher region), Chinese currency of over 900 yuan and Chinese leather jackets.

According to the laid down procedure along the LAC, the custody of any accused apprehended in the area has to be with the Indo-Tibetan Border Police and interrogation can be carried out by central security agencies.

Arihant · Post by **Arihant** » 01 Jul 2013 08:52

US boss detained in China for bid to shift business to India?

Workers at the plant were enraged when they saw a group of Indian engineers visiting the plant for inspections ahead of the company's plans to shift its injection moulding division to Mumbai, sources said.

Arihant · Post by **Arihant** » 01 Jul 2013 08:55

HK serves as warning, academic says

“The situation in almost every aspect of life in Hong Kong has gotten so bad that Hong Kong independence — for which support remains very weak, however — has been mentioned among the people,” said Chen Yi-chi, a doctoral candidate at University of Leiden in the Netherlands.

Arihant · Post by **Arihant** » 01 Jul 2013 09:05

Sovereignty belongs to Taiwanese

However, there is a twist to the issue because what Shaw’s argument neglects to mentions is that the San Francisco Peace Treaty never specified to whom Japan was to cede Taiwan.
Furthermore, the US has continued to state — up to the present — that the matter of who Taiwan belongs to remains “undecided.”
Continuing in this vein, there is no official record of the US transferring sovereignty of Taiwan to the ROC government, unfortunately for Shaw and the KMT.
If one pursues this line of argument, all evidence points to a completely different distinction, one that threatens the KMT’s long-term and questionable claim to legitimacy over Taiwan.

It is this distinction that promises to send national pundits and scholars running to scrutinize historical documents and also revives the old issue of what the US really means when it uses the phrase “one China.”
Using Shaw’s phrasing, the argument would posit that the US allowed the KMT to have administrative control over Taiwan, but it never gave the KMT sovereignty over Taiwan.
In effect, the KMT then remains a dispossessed diaspora that was allowed to settle in Taiwan and set up a one-party state — an unfortunate situation for the Taiwanese, but one that met the US’ national interests at the time.
This throws the KMT narrative of its legitimacy further into question.

Arihant · Post by **Arihant** » 01 Jul 2013 18:30

SSridhar wrote:China Ready to Break New Ground on Border Talks with India

This may be a sensational headline. The new Special representative can be only expected to say nice things which should not be taken literally. After all, Yang Jeichi is renowned to be a tough negotiator. Geostrategically & geopolitically as well, China can be expected to mouth such platitudes. China asked Japan not to drive a wedge in the relationship between India and China (paraphrasing) during the recent visit of Man Mohan Singh there ! We have to wait and watch how the talks progress. After all, China is not even willing to give its maps to us.

China today said it was ready to "break new ground" with India to resolve the boundary dispute as the Special Representatives of the two countries held 16th round of border talks to find a solution to the vexed issue.

"I stand ready to work with you to build on the work of our predecessors and break new ground to strive for the settlement of the China-India boundary question and to make greater progress in the China India strategic an cooperative partnership in the new period," newly appointed Chinese Special Representative Yang Jiechi said here.

Former foreign minister Yang, who took over from the long-standing Chinese Special Representative Dai Bingguo, welcomed his Indian counterpart National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon, saying "the two Special Representatives have a lofty mission and heavy responsibilities".

This is the first meeting of the border talks after the new leadership took over in China in March.

India asserts that the dispute covered about 4,000 km, while China claims that it confined to about 2,000 km to the area of Arunachal Pradesh, which it refers as Southern Tibet.

"First of all let me warmly welcome you to come to China for the 16th round of the Special Representatives meeting on the China-India boundary question," he said, stating that "over the years you have made important contribution to the growth of China-India relations in various capacities."

"You and I have known each other for a long time. We are very familiar with each other and established a good working relationship and personal friendship," Yang said. He also complimented Dai for the work done in the last decade.

Yang recalled the recent visit of Premier Li Keqiang to India stating that it was an important event coming after the meeting between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Durban in March.

Li's visit "injected fresh and strong momentum into the further development of our bilateral relationship," he said.

"The China-India relationship has developed good momentum of development. The Special Representatives meeting is an important exchange and cooperation mechanism between our two countries," he said.

On his part, Menon expressed his pleasure to hold talks with Yang. "You are an old friend and in India you are known for your various contributions you have made to the positive development of our bilateral relations," Menon said.

China does not want a multi-front conflict. It has Japan to deal with, plus pin-pricks from the Philippines. The sweet-talk ensures that we hold back and not mess up China's schedule (our turn comes a bit later..). This, of course, does not explain the mystery of the April invasion.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 02 Jul 2013 19:58

India loses Kazakh oil field to China - ToI

ONGC Videsh, the overseas investment arm of state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC), had in November last year struck a deal to buy ConocoPhillips' 8.4 per cent stake in Kazakhstan's biggest oilfield, Kashagan for $5 billion.

As per Kazakh law, the Central Asian nation had the right of first refusal or pre-emption rights that allowed it an option to step in and buy the stake at the price agreed between the Indian firm and ConocoPhillips.

The Kazakh government has decided to exercise its ROFR and acquire the stake held by ConocoPhillips, sources with direct knowledge of the development said.

The Central Asian country's Oil and Gas Ministry has informed ConocoPhillips its national oil company KazMunaiGaz will buy the US oil company's 8.4 per cent interest in the world's largest oil find in five decades for about $5 billion. This stake will then be sold to China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) for a reported $5.3-5.4 billion.

CNPC beat India by agreeing to pay $4.18 billion in August 2005 for PetroKazakhstan, then China's biggest overseas oil deal. At that time, oil minister Mani Shankar Aiyar had stated that India's bid for PetroKazakhstan was thwarted as the "goalposts were changed after the game began."

The Chinese firm had trailed ONGC and its partner Lakhsmi N Mittal's $4 billion bid at the close of bidding on August 15, 2005. But post-close of bidding, it was allowed to raise the offer price to $4.18 billion, which saw PetroKazakhstan, a Canadian oil firm operating in Central Asia, go to CNPC.

A month later, CNPC against outbid ONGC in buying assets of Encana Corp in Ecuador for $1.42 billion.

In March 2010, ONGC lost out on acquisition of oil Block 1 and 3A in Uganda oilfields to China's Cnooc who offered as much as $2.5 billion for the 50 per cent stake.

In May 2011, ONGC lost a bid to buy Exxon Mobil Corp's 25 per cent stake in an Angolan oil field. ONGC had offered about $2 billion for the stake in Block 31 off Angola's coast.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 02 Jul 2013 23:00

Lest keep in mind, China has more to loose now than what they had 10-15 years ago. Same case for next 10 years . India need to concentrate on economy and defence and most of all be ready for war . China should have the good option of loosing Shanghai -Shenzen -Peking etc over Aksai Chin or choked Sea lanes, Energy Corridor or Pakistan etc.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 02 Jul 2013 23:12

Jhujar wrote:Lest keep in mind, China has more to loose now than what they had 10-15 years ago. Same case for next 10 years . India need to concentrate on economy and defence and most of all be ready for war . China should have the good option of loosing Shanghai -Shenzen -Peking etc over Aksai Chin or choked Sea lanes, Energy Corridor or Pakistan etc.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 03 Jul 2013 13:57

India worried over PLA expanding transborder military capabilities - ToI

ndia is likely to raise the expanding transborder military capabilities of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), including its stepped-up exercises in the high-altitude Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, when defence minister A K Antony leads a top-level delegation to China from July 4 to 7.

Sources said while India will "reassure" China that it has absolutely no intention of joining any multi-lateral strategic grouping that seeks to "contain" Beijing, it will also underline several "bilateral concerns" that need to be addressed.

"There are legitimate concerns about PLA's military capabilities, assertiveness and intentions, its massive infrastructure build-up along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and, of course, incidents like the Depsang incursion in Ladakh in April," said a source.

India, however, is keen to progressively enhance military ties with China, keep "communication channels open" and "eliminate potential" for Depsang-like incidents to reoccur.

The two sides will also discuss resumption of the joint Army "Hand-in-Hand" (HiH) counter-terrorism exercise towards end-2013 after a five-year gap as well as explore establishing the fourth border personnel meeting (BPM) mechanism near Lipulekh-Mana Pass in the "middle sector" after the existing ones at Chushul, Nathu La and Bum La.

The keenness to "constructively engage" with China's military leadership can be gauged from the fact that Antony's delegation, apart from defence secretary R K Mathur, will include Eastern Army commander Lt-General Dalbir Singh Suhag and Southern Naval commander Vice-Admiral Satish Soni, who are slated to take over as the next Army and Navy chiefs in 2014 and 2015, respectively. The Indian delegation will visit Shanghai, Beijing and the Chengdu Military Area Command, which controls Tibet and almost the entire disputed LAC.

Though the need to fortify de-escalatory mechanisms to prevent face-offs between the two armies will be stressed during the trip, India is in "no hurry" to ink the new Border Defence Cooperation Agreement (BDCA) proposed by China earlier this year.

"The revised BDCA draft submitted by China is being examined," said a source. MoD was perturbed by the earlier draft since it suggested that both sides should freeze troop and infrastructure levels along the LAC.

MoD is in the process of getting the Cabinet Committee on Security's (CCS) final nod for raising a new mountain strike corps (40,000 soldiers), apart from two "independent" infantry brigades and two "independent" armoured brigades, to plug operational gaps along the LAC as well as to acquire "some ground offensive capabilities" against China. Moreover, India is belatedly trying to counter the major infrastructure build-up by China over the last couple of decades.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 03 Jul 2013 17:48

SSridhar wrote:India loses Kazakh oil field to China - ToI

I'm wondering whether all this out-bidding has got anything to do with industrial espionage.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 03 Jul 2013 17:53

^ I don't know. But, at least in the Kazakh case, it seems to involve bribery and deep pockets.