Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions

[Philip]

This is a Sept'13 piece,no idea whether it was posted earlier.A case being made out for dumping the expensive Raffy in favour of cheaper MIGs.No doubt that this is a pitch to muddy the waters as the deal gets tied up in knots,but the tail of the report is what is interesting,which appears to mirror media reports about our DPSUs being unable to tackle the high-tech production issues and whether we should accept a "downgraded Rafale". I still feel that the Rafale deal should go through, in phases though.We bought the M-2000s off the shelf.It is for the French who have to compromise,unless they want to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

The last post,(no pun intended!)about an initial batch of 18 being acquired first fits in with those who've been advocating saving money by not going the whole TOT hog in view of other more advanced programmes (FGFA,AMCA) around the corner and LCA MK-2 dev.This as the last report says allows for a more careful menu choice for the main courses,while the "entree" is ordered to alleviate the hunger pangs. One can always later decide upon the number required of Raffys and other cost-effective alternatives to keep sqd. numbers happy.

http://indrus.in/blogs/2013/09/03/with_ ... 29025.html

With the MiG-29 on steroids, who needs the Rafale
September 3, 2013 Rakesh Krishnan Simha
With the air defence MiG-29s being upgraded to an advanced multirole aircraft, the Indian Air Force could save more than $10 billion by scratching the Rafale.

The MiG-29SMT upgrade will represent a major step forward for the aircraft on multiple fronts. Source: MiG Corporation

More than a year after the French Rafale won the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) dogfight, a contract is nowhere in sight – forget the delivery date. Not only is it the usual drawn-out drama that comes with India’s defence acquisitions, it is also clear the French have overpromised on the technology transfer provisions and now want to welch out.

The delay in the signing of the MMRCA contract, along with the high-octane upgrade of the Indian Air Force (IAF) MiG-29 Fulcrum and the advanced state of gestation of India’s fifth generation fighter, the Sukhoi PAK-FA, are creating a situation where the Rafale seems superfluous to India’s defence requirements.

The biggest game changer is the ongoing upgrade to the IAF’s Fulcrum fleet which will convert them to the MiG-29SMT. This means these aircraft will now be on a par with the advanced MiG-29M. “The MiG-29SMT upgrade will represent a major step forward for the aircraft on multiple fronts,” says Air Force Technology.
Military
Read section:
Defence and Security

Most Indian Fulcrums are MiG-29Bs, downgraded by removing Russian IFF (Identify Friend or Foe) and datalink equipment, and a subpar radar. (This is standard practice by all manufacturing nations which reserve the most advanced versions for their own defence forces while exporting stepped down models.)

The IAF has speeded up the MiG-29B upgrade programme because of two factors.

One, an impending fighter crunch. Hundreds of MiG-21 interceptors and MiG-23 interceptors and fighter bombers have been retired, and the long-serving MiG-27 ground attack fighter won’t be around very long. The 118 British Jaguars – which have been highly accident prone – may also have to be withdrawn from their deep penetration roles in view of the improvement in air defences in India’s neighbourhood.

Secondly, India’s Light Combat Aircraft, Tejas, which was to have filled the void created by the MiG-21’s exit, remains flight shy. The three-decade long programme is suffering from all sorts of problems, leaving India with a huge gap in its light interceptor fleet.

MiG-29 on steroids

Defense Industry Daily (DID) reports the 62 upgraded MiG-29s – 54 single-seat fighters and 8 trainers – will join the Mirage-2000 fleet in the IAF’s multirole middle-tier category. This is a category that is above the MiG-21s/27s and below the Sukhoi-30 MKIs. The upgrade will change their role from air-superiority planes to full multirole fighters with modern air-to-air and air-to-ground weapons.

The planes will be fitted with upgraded weapons and a new avionics suite, including the Phazatron Zhuk-ME radar. The Zhuk-ME’s acquisition range has increased 1.5 times. It also adds terrain following mode, and ground target acquisition including high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) to obtain a better picture than is possible with conventional radar.

After the $964 million upgrade, the Fulcrums are expected to remain in service for 10-15 more years, with their safe flight-hour lifetimes extended from 25 years/2,500 hours to 40 years/3,500 hours.

The IAF is also bulking up its middle tier by upgrading its 51 Mirage 2000s to a standard similar to the latest Mirage 2000-5. Flying with new radar and new weapons, the upgraded fighters can be expected to serve until around 2030.

Including aircraft under order, India’s Sukhoi-30 MKI fleet is currently pegged at 272. It is an impressive number for such a high-end and expensive weapons platform. This shows a keen sense of judgement by the IAF, which realizes that 100 percent fleet utilisation is impossible and having a large number of aircraft around is the key to getting the job done.

“These aircraft will be the high end of India’s air power, and can be expected to remain in the force past 2030, and are competitive with or superior to top-end European fighters and American F-15 variants,” says DID.

Even allowing for the inevitable delays – with India insisting on various customisations – Sukhoi’s fifth generation stealth fighter will be entering service well before 2030. Under these circumstances, the Rafale is too late to the party.
Related:

MiG-29s to be stationed aboard Vikramaditya and Vikrant

Ready to supply MiG-35s to India - Korotkov

MiGs touch down on the Vikramaditya’s deck

Are we losing out on the Indian market?

Rafale: Reasons for buying

To be sure, the primary reason for selecting a Western aircraft – ahead of more potent Russian alternatives – is to reduce dependence on one vendor country.

The other objective is to acquire the full technology suite of a modern aircraft for local production. French technology is being pitched as the magic potion that will save the Tejas programme, while also providing a large boost to aerospace and defence electronics industries in India. Basically, it will allow India to move up from screwdriver technology to building entire fighter aircraft from scratch.

But will Dassault, which builds the Rafale, oblige? The French newspaper L’Usine Nouvelle cites complex electronics, and especially the Thales AESA radar, as being difficult to transfer. The Delhi-based Daily Pioneer predicts a “stream of news reports that we’ve already heard a thousand times before will come out telling us how unprepared our institutions are to receive this technology”.

There is no reason for the IAF to accept a downgraded Rafale. In view of the massive fall in living standards in the West in general and mass unemployment in France in particular, it is France, not India that has to compromise. The alternative for Dassault is the closure of its Rafale plant. Someone should sit with the French and show them the mirror.

The IAF is clear that it does not want to repeat the story of the HF-24 Marut fighter – the first Indian supersonic aircraft – which was developed in the 1960s by HAL and the freelancing German aerospace engineer Kurt Tank. Like the Tejas, the Marut too was an underpowered aircraft that was quietly retired.

If the French do not deliver the technology, there is no point spending billions on sterile imports – unless someone in the vicinity of South Block is seriously committed to kickbacks.

Rafale’s costs may defy gravity

Another problem with the Rafale is the ballooning cost. The MMRCA was a requirement of the 2000s but the extended competition has inflated costs to stratospheric levels – from $10 billion a decade ago to around $20 billion, according to the New Delhi-based Institute for Defence Studies & Analysis (IDSA). Plus, nobody reckoned with the falling rupee, which has also increased the cost per plane.

DID believes the 100 or so Rafales would offer some compatibilities with the upgraded Mirage 2000s, but will come at about twice the Sukhoi-30 MKI’s price. “If budget pressures intervene and Tejas continues to lag, India could be forced to buy a less expensive mid-tier plane instead,” it says.

Assembly of MiG-29K naval fighters (video)

That plane could well be the MiG-29SMT. Its variant, the MiG-35 could easily replace the Rafale if India scratches the MMRCA and opts for a government to government deal instead.

Need for spending wisely

Acquiring the Rafale at such a prohibitive cost is extravagance which India cannot afford at a time when economic growth has hit an embarrassing 5 percent and the rupee is in free fall. “While it was presumed a few years ago that funds for defence would not be a constraint in the future, a slowing economy has led to these funds being curtailed,” says the IDSA. “The writing on the wall is clear: resource constraints are looming for the armed forces.”

When advanced Russian aircraft are available for less than half the price of the Rafale, it would be prudent to wait before signing on the line that is dotted. The money can be better spent on beefing up the Tejas programme. For the kind of cash we are talking, there is a hell of a lot of red hot technology that cash strapped defence companies in the West will part with.

[RKumar]

India May Close Interim MMRCA Deal Soon

However, the MMRCA pact might cover only the supply of 18 Dassault Rafale aircraft from the French production line, leaving further negotiations for the remaining 108 required to be concluded by the new government.

A government code of conduct prevents any contracts being awarded within 45 days of an election.

“If the contract is signed soon, it will be nothing but a paper deal that ensures commitment of the government. We can expect delays after the first 18 aircraft, since the remaining fighters will be built under license with transfer of technology. The government wants to ensure the contract is penned so that the [basic choice] cannot be questioned by subsequent governments,” said an official associated with the project. An official at the MoD noted that signature of the MMRCA contract would restore the confidence of international OEMs, which has been shaken by the recent scandal over the AW101 procurement.

Following lengthy discussions, HAL is thought to have now agreed with Dassault on the question of Tier 1 suppliers, including aerostructures.

Why India has to worry about others then our interests. GoI should not sign deal for 18 planes, it is like handing over you ace card. Once we have 18 planes, France can force their conditions on us.

Is GoI so stupid, not to understand the basic rules?
Or is something changing pockets?
This whole affair is sic, why it is so urgent during last days of Govt.; when it was sleeping for last 9 years?
GoI must not sign this deal at this point and let next Govt decide it (be it BJP, AAP or cong)?

[Brando]

Without a substantial increase in defense allocation will there even be enough financial outlay to sign the Rafale deal ? With the CAD, the FAD and the growing non-plan expenditure it will be remarkable if the Finance ministry can suddenly pull $20 odd billion out of its hat for this deal over the next 2 5-year plans.

Every day, it looks more uncertain the MMRCA deal with be signed based on the financial situation of the country. IMO this consideration is also part of the reason for the slow progress of the negotiators. If the MMRCA deal isn't signed by the end of 2014, I doubt it will be signed at all.

[Singha]

>> The 118 British Jaguars – which have been highly accident prone – may also have to be withdrawn from their deep penetration roles in view of the improvement in air defences in India’s neighbourhood.

and this in addition to their known thrust problems. I get the feeling the F125 engine deal will not be taken up as the airframe itself suffers limitations on G loads and nimbleness never being design for the high alt precision strike multirole self-escort thing the m2K & now the mig29 could grow into.

imo the writing is on the wall. perhaps a immediate order for 50 Tejas Mk1 and 50 Mig29K to get both lines humming and tide over the cancellation of the MRCA. that will get Tejas mk1 numbers up to 90 and permit a upscaling of HAL production line and better economy of scale.

Tejas can get the astra and 29k can get both the astra and the next-gen aam being designed for the pakfa later.

[Lalmohan]

^^^ have the jaguars had above normal accidents given their lo-lo-lo mission profile? (i don't believe so)
in the pak theatre, are jaguars really really obsolete? (i don't think so, but the threats have increased)
i am willing to accept that for tibet the performance levels possible in a jaguar are now surpassed by other aircraft
but the overall thrust of the article i think is trying to make a sales point in favour of the mig

[Viv S]

India May Close Interim MMRCA Deal Soon

An official at the MoD noted that signature of the MMRCA contract would restore the confidence of international OEMs, which has been shaken by the recent scandal over the AW101 procurement.

Perhaps the MoD should also issue a formal apology for shaking the confidence of international OEMs.

[Viv S]

Why India has to worry about others then our interests. GoI should not sign deal for 18 planes, it is like handing over you ace card. Once we have 18 planes, France can force their conditions on us.

Is GoI so stupid, not to understand the basic rules?
Or is something changing pockets?
This whole affair is sic, why it is so urgent during last days of Govt.; when it was sleeping for last 9 years?
GoI must not sign this deal at this point and let next Govt decide it (be it BJP, AAP or cong)?

Spot on.

We buy 18 today, the French decide what the next 108 will cost tomorrow.

Lets hope they're generous.

[member_20453]

Jags aren't as accident prone as other birds in the IAF's inventory, AFAIK, they are reliable birds and IAF loves to use them. I think the engine upgrade should breathe new life into the bird, also keeping in mind DARIN-3 upgrades are being rolled out ,with a new far more reliable F125 (which also increases the birds range by a whopping 35%), the bird is bound to be the primary deep strike bird. IAF also has begun integrated CBU-97/105 SFW serious cans of whoop ass on these birds.

Tis cheaper to operate too, the author is correct in pointing out the heavy useless cost of the Rafale, however the rest is bull. SH Internatinal or F-35 in FMS deals with local assembly line is the ideal option, LM would't mind a Asia/middle east centric Assembly line for the F-35 and Boeing certainly wouldn't mind having the SH assembly line moved to India entirely if orders are big enough. Both birds have more of a future than any of the competitors.

[JTull]

Interim order for 18, off the shelf, is very welcome. If you look at Su-30MKI history, I fully expect some more orders from Dassault, before HAL production comes online. IAF needs MMRCA fast, and this is a way to de-risk the acquisition.

[member_20453]

Actually the Su-30MKI deal is a different supplier, the equations are quite diffrent there, there was never any question of HAL as lead integrator and the TOT was never a dirty word from day 1. However in this case, we will be shooting ourselves pretty much in the foot since the price for the 18 birds could be quite different than to the price of the remaining 108 + options if needed. I think this is whole news stinks and that Rafale deal is being pushed through with plenty of TOT compromises. We are going to be saddled by a very expensive bird that will be expensive over a life time of use + upgrades. This bs deal needs to be scrapped. Moreover, with companies like Reliance in the deal, you know its been tainted even if IAFs selection process was squeaky clean.

[Manish_Sharma]

Sometime back Shri Mort Walker had raised a question that 'maybe MMRCA is IAF's requirement of a platform that has high availability + less man hours requirements'.

And seeing M2000's high availability compared to Mig 29 and other russki platforms, maybe that tops IAF's requirement.

A question after this info:

http://goo.gl/8a4uIp

Rafale has excellent payload for its small size. Officially Rafale C can carry a incredible 20900 pounds of payload despite the fact that it is slightly smaller than Typhoon which can carry only 16500 pounds. The payload of Rafale C is also officially MORE than F-18EF ( F-18EF is 42% larger than rafale C, but F-18ef carries only 17700 pound officially) And this is not all. When Rafale get its uprated M88-3 engine and when the new 3000 liter (792.6gals) center line external fuel tank is being qualified for use, rafale external payload weight will further increase to almost 23000 pound !!! Thats almost the same as the 24000 pounds achieve by the 50-65% larger F-15E. Rafale C MTOW will soon be increase to 60,000 pounds. Rafale C is about 20680 pound when empty. Its MTOW to empty weight ratio is 2.9 times !! F-15E MTOW to empty ratio is 2.56 or less. F-15E probably rank second. No other airplane is close or even close. eurofighter Typhoon MTWO to empty weight is only 2.14 ! B-2 bomber may have highere MTOW to empty weight ratio. But B-2 is a subsonic load carrying bomber. For fighter plane comparison Rafale C MTOW to empty weight ratio is HIGHEST among all supersonic fighre aircraft.

All those machines we get from France to manufacture such WEIGHT CARRYING MIRACLE of a plane we can use later to make AMCA too?

[Viv S]

Sometime back Shri Mort Walker had raised a question that 'maybe MMRCA is IAF's requirement of a platform that has high availability + less man hours requirements'.

And seeing M2000's high availability compared to Mig 29 and other russki platforms, maybe that tops IAF's requirement.

That's more an indictment of Russian equipment than it is a recommendation for French aircraft. The Mirage 2000's operational availability is no better than the F-16 or F-18. The Tejas will be quite competitive with those platforms and the Mk2 will likely be even better.

A question after this info:

When Rafale get its uprated M88-3 engine and when the new 3000 liter (792.6gals) center line external fuel tank is being qualified for use, rafale external payload weight will further increase to almost 23000 pound !!! Thats almost the same as the 24000 pounds achieve by the 50-65% larger F-15E.

The Rafale isn't getting the M88-3 in the foreseeable future, if at all. The French MoD was given that choice and opted for the M88-ECO development (entered service as the M88-4E).

All those machines we get from France to manufacture such WEIGHT CARRYING MIRACLE of a plane we can use later to make AMCA too?

The payload is a function of the design, materials and thrust. It can't simply be ported from one aircraft to another.

[Philip]

Septi,the F-35 at a minimum of $100M a pop is even more expensive than the Raffy and operating costs per hr. yet to be computed,current estimates far more than any of the existing 4thgen aircraft in the US inventory.The SH is below par and has no future upgrade potential ,not by any means cheap as well,at least $55M when compared to just $32M for a MIG-29K,with the Raffy upwards from $65M to $90M.

If the Scorpene deal is anything to go by we will be shafted yet again later on when second "portions" are ordered and like M-200 upgrades,at $40+M per plane,costlier than a brand new MIG-29K!! If you want cordon bleu French food,you've got to have very deep pockets.

[srin]

India May Close Interim MMRCA Deal Soon

However, the MMRCA pact might cover only the supply of 18 Dassault Rafale aircraft from the French production line, leaving further negotiations for the remaining 108 required to be concluded by the new government.

A government code of conduct prevents any contracts being awarded within 45 days of an election.

“If the contract is signed soon, it will be nothing but a paper deal that ensures commitment of the government. We can expect delays after the first 18 aircraft, since the remaining fighters will be built under license with transfer of technology. The government wants to ensure the contract is penned so that the [basic choice] cannot be questioned by subsequent governments,” said an official associated with the project. An official at the MoD noted that signature of the MMRCA contract would restore the confidence of international OEMs, which has been shaken by the recent scandal over the AW101 procurement.

Following lengthy discussions, HAL is thought to have now agreed with Dassault on the question of Tier 1 suppliers, including aerostructures.

That is just nuts. If you have a deal with Dassault just 18 Rafales, it is a different contract and it would be a single vendor problem. EADS can take the MoD to court because their proposal was for 126 aircraft and they will be sure they would have been L1 if given a chance, and that they were denied the chance. Some MP would write a letter to the RM on how the lifecycle costs were computed and how Rafale was found to be cheaper. And just before an election, signing a deal like this would result in a lot of allegations of corruption and no Govt (even this one) would want that.

And what is this joke about the confidence of international OEMs ? Don't they realize that it is the Indians who need to have confidence in the procurements ?

Someone is disconnected from reality.

[Lalmohan]

the structure of the deal was made public some time back, as were the stumbling blocks
wondering why we are reinventing the wheel here?

[Viv S]

Septi,the F-35 at a minimum of $100M a pop is even more expensive than the Raffy and operating costs per hr. yet to be computed,current estimates far more than any of the existing 4thgen aircraft in the US inventory.

Not necessarily. With the cut backs in the Rafale orders I wouldn't be surprised if its flyaway cost was nearing $100 mil as well . Operating cost is certainly higher but the munitions complement will be cheaper as will the upgrades.

[shukla]

RAFALE "F3 R" standard launched

The F3 R standard is an evolution of the RAFALE "F3" standard. It is part of the ongoing process to continuously improve the aircraft in line with operational requirements. It will enable Dassault Aviation to integrate the following equipment and weapons onto the RAFALE:

-- The European Meteor long-range air-to-air missile produced by MBDA. This
high-performance missile will achieve maximum effectiveness thanks to the
"active array" radar which equips all production RAFALE aircraft
delivered since mid-2013[1].

-- The Thales PDL-NG new-generation laser designator pod. Primarily used for
air-to-ground strikes, in daylight or darkness, this pod will further
enhance the high degree of precision that the RAFALE has achieved since
its first engagements (in 2007 in the Afghan theatre).

-- The laser homing version of the Sagem AASM Air-to-Ground Modular
Weapon[2]. This family of weapons, with GPS primary guidance and an
additional booster, is unmatched. It was used by the RAFALE during
operations in Libya (2011) to destroy targets at ranges of several tens
of kilometers with metric precision. The laser homing version is
particularly adapted to moving targets.

F3 R will also include upgrades to RAFALE sensors and to systems ensuring total interoperability.

The launch of the F3 R standard:

-- guarantees that French forces will continue to have a high-performance
aircraft adapted to their requirements.

-- reinforces the strong points of the RAFALE in export competitions.

-- contributes to maintaining the competences of the design bureaux of
Dassault Aviation and its industrial partners at a world-class level.

-- confirms the ongoing improvement process and opens the way to future
developments for France and export customers.

Validation of the F3 R standard is scheduled for 2018.

[Manish_Sharma]

The Mirage 2000's operational availability is no better than the F-16 or F-18. The Tejas will be quite competitive with those platforms and the Mk2 will likely be even better.

Other than the fact that phat panting teens couldn't take off from leh, while katrina did easily without a glitch, Ef2k also did but with small glitch of engine not starting after a night in open in leh. Finally when the teens took off they used double the runway and piddly payload compared to eurobirds.

Repeating my post:
http://www.indiastrategic.in/topstories39.htm

Three years ago, an article in a US journal described how the US sanctions had hurt India: HAL Hedges - US sanctions were a bitter experience for Indian manufacturer.



It reported as to how "the state owned Indian aircraft maker was hurt by the US sanctions imposed in 1998 and when it sent flight control systems for its Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) to the US for evaluation, they were impounded. Exports of components from HAL's Advanced Jet Trainer and engines for its Dhruv Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) were caught up in the ban which even covered the servicing of Indian Navy's Sea King helicopters in the UK due to the use of US-manufactured parts".

My immediate reaction on reading the text was that "Those who forget history are condemned to repeat it."

God forbid but now sanctions are going to hit much harder before it was LCA program + Sea King Helicopters.

Today LM 2500 engines, C-130 parts and maintenance, C-17 parts and maintenance, P-8, LCA Mk-I (GE 404), LCA Mk-2 (GE 414), NLCA (GE 404 - 414) + in case these materialise : Apache, Chinook, M-777, MH-60 navy helicopters.

[Viv S]

Other than the fact that phat panting teens couldn't take off from leh, while katrina did easily without a glitch, Ef2k also did but with small glitch of engine not starting after a night in open in leh. Finally when the teens took off they used double the runway and piddly payload compared to eurobirds.

Operating out of Leh can hardly be the single point of concern - in fact logistically its much smarter to operate a out of Srinagar (every litre of jet fuel at Leh has to dragged through the Zoji La).

And for the record, the Tejas Mk1 successfully cleared its winter trials at Leh. As will the Tejas Mk2.

In any case, the issue raised was about maintenance and not high altitude takeoff.

It reported as to how "the state owned Indian aircraft maker was hurt by the US sanctions imposed in 1998 and when it sent flight control systems for its Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) to the US for evaluation, they were impounded.

God forbid but now sanctions are going to hit much harder before it was LCA program + Sea King Helicopters.

Today LM 2500 engines, C-130 parts and maintenance, C-17 parts and maintenance, P-8, LCA Mk-I (GE 404), LCA Mk-2 (GE 414), NLCA (GE 404 - 414) + in case these materialise : Apache, Chinook, M-777, MH-60 navy helicopters.

Lots of things have changed since 1998. The US can't sanction us today without shooting themselves in the foot.

[merlin]

Lots of things have changed since 1998. The US can't sanction us today without shooting themselves in the foot.

As we saw with the DK episode no doubt.

[Viv S]

Lots of things have changed since 1998. The US can't sanction us today without shooting themselves in the foot.

As we saw with the DK episode no doubt.

The arrest certainly wasn't ordered by the White House. And her return was likely a result of State Dept pressure. How much would the outrage in India have mattered to them fifteen years ago.

[Singha]

WEIGHT CARRYING MIRACLE of Rafale

- it has some 14 hardpoints, incl I believe 5 wet ones..so lot of flexibility.only the F-15E/MKI might have more hardpoints..but laws of physics are not bendable...its engines are weaker than EJ200...wing area is less than EF...not to speak of the big hunters. so sure it can fly but nimbleness and acceleration will surely be low....G & AOA might be severely limited...wing loading very high..in reality a more typical warlike load for A2G might involve 2 drop tanks, 4 bombs ,1 litening pod and 2 mica and for A2A might be 2 drop tanks and 6 mica. any modern contender can carry that load.

every a/c under heavy payload suffers these limitations...even the redoubtable F-15E.

[abhik]

WEIGHT CARRYING MIRACLE of Rafale
...in reality a more typical warlike load for A2G might involve 2 drop tanks, 4 bombs ,1 litening pod and 2 mica and for A2A might be 2 drop tanks and 6 mica. any modern contender can carry that load.

every a/c under heavy payload suffers these limitations...even the redoubtable F-15E.

Exactly! Has the Rafale ever carried significantly more than 2,000 kg of bombs in "long illustrious service"?

[Manish_Sharma]

As we saw with the DK episode no doubt.

The arrest certainly wasn't ordered by the White House. And her return was likely a result of State Dept pressure. How much would the outrage in India have mattered to them fifteen years ago.

There is a very very VERY clever pattern here Viv S!

You have invented a unique way of defending the 'unkil', previously in a post you had covered up the misdeeds of amreeka during bangladesh war by saying "Nickson was anti-Indian, but US administration was pro-India..."
| But this fact didn't protect Bharat's interests from hurting |

Again for the criminal sanctions of '98 by amrika were defended by you saying "clinton was pro-Indian but albright and US administration was anti-India, thus the sanctions......"
| But AGGAIN this fact didn't protect Bharat's interests from hurting |

Now again the rape of our diplomat by barbarian amrikans is being defended by you, saying:
"The arrest certainly wasn't ordered by the White House."
| |

In future again, next PM of Bharatvarsh decides to test nukes, and US sanctions all our : LCA program + Sea King Helicopters.

LM 2500 engines, C-130 parts and maintenance, C-17 parts and maintenance, P-8, LCA Mk-I (GE 404), LCA Mk-2 (GE 414), NLCA (GE 404 - 414) + in case these materialise : Apache, Chinook, M-777, MH-60 navy helicopters. OR EVEN TEENS IF WE BY THEM.

You'll again shrug and say: "The US president, Secretary of the state are in India's favour but it was some undersecretary in such abd such dept. But don't let this stop India from buying F-35 & sixth gen f-18s."

WEIGHT CARRYING MIRACLE of Rafale

- it has some 14 hardpoints, incl I believe 5 wet ones..so lot of flexibility.only the F-15E/MKI might have more hardpoints..but laws of physics are not bendable...its engines are weaker than EJ200...wing area is less than EF...not to speak of the big hunters. so sure it can fly but nimbleness and acceleration will surely be low....G & AOA might be severely limited...wing loading very high..in reality a more typical warlike load for A2G might involve 2 drop tanks, 4 bombs ,1 litening pod and 2 mica and for A2A might be 2 drop tanks and 6 mica. any modern contender can carry that load.

every a/c under heavy payload suffers these limitations...even the redoubtable F-15E.

Thanks for explaining Singha ji, I fell for the advertising.

Thought maybe dassault has some new types of composites and alloys that allows such a miraculous load for rafale, and we can use those materials plus the machines for AMCA & Nirbhay too.

[Viv S]

There is a very very VERY clever pattern here Viv S!

You have invented a unique way of defending the 'unkil', previously in a post you had covered up the misdeeds of amreeka during bangladesh war by saying "Nickson was anti-Indian, but US administration was pro-India..."
| But this fact didn't protect Bharat's interests from hurting |
.
.
.

I don't have to defend it or protect. You simply put yourself in their shoes and its hardly difficult to predict their motivations and actions. At which point all we need to see is whether our interests coincide and on what issues.

Unlike you I see international relations from a very impersonal lens. Strategically we have many interests but only one concern (or threat if you prefer) i.e. China. Its assertive on the LAC, aggressive in the South China Sea and a dominant competitor in the global market.

As long as we have that in common with the US, I'm not concerned about the possibility of sanctions. As far as 'defended' the US goes, my interest is primary to put the focus back on the bigger picture.

How many Vietnamese people died between 1967 and 1973? If they can see the threat that's looming over them and pursue stronger strategic and military ties with the US (in addition to others), well ... our ties have been positively rosy in comparison. Bottom-line you don't have to love them, to do business with them.

[Manish_Sharma]

I don't have to defend it or protect. You simply put yourself in their shoes....

You stop thinking like an american & put yourself in Bharatvasis' shoes and you'll understand:
"I trust/allow you to sanction me once; shame on you,
I trust/allow you to sanction me again; shame on me!!!"

How many Vietnamese people died between 1967 and 1973? If they can see the threat that's looming over them and pursue stronger strategic and military ties with the US (in addition to others), well ... our ties have been positively rosy in comparison. Bottom-line you don't have to love them, to do business with them.

Doing business is different than putting you armed forces at their mercy.

Our ties wouldn't have been rosy too if Soviet sub hadn't pinged and stopped the seventh fleet midway.

[Viv S]

You stop thinking like an american & put yourself in Bharatvasis' shoes and you'll understand:
"I trust/allow you to sanction me once; shame on you,
I trust/allow you to sanction me again; shame on me!!!"

I am a Bharatvasi. Just one with enough confidence in my country's economic and military heft, not to be terrified of sanctions.

Doing business is different than putting you armed forces at their mercy.

Our armed forces will not be affected, precisely because it'll hurt their business.

Our ties wouldn't have been rosy too if Soviet sub hadn't pinged and stopped the seventh fleet midway.

Or what? They'd have invaded? In the middle of the Vietnam war?

And what if they'd ignored it? Would the Russians have told the submarine to open fire? Which would have sunk the 7th Fleet?

Please at least attempt to look through the hype.

[Philip]

Reg. the JSF and costs,AWST reports a spat between Lockheed and Rand,who've given a negative report about JSF costs,etc. But the bird is off the table as far as this MMRCA deal is concerned.So little need for further discussion in this td.The interim order is to "seal the deal" before the UPA exits.One the camel's nose is in the tent,conventional wisdom suggests that you have to eventually allow the entire body in!This interim deal; will ensure that the Raffy's "stakes" are planted in Indian soil.One must now watch for the "interim" prices and long term costs.

[Viv S]

Reg. the JSF and costs,AWST reports a spat between Lockheed and Rand,who've given a negative report about JSF costs,etc.

What RAND claimed was that based on 'historical evidence', three independent aircraft programs would have cost less than a single joint program. Total nonsense, since the 'history' of joint programs is nearly non-existent (notable exception: T-6 trainer).

But the bird is off the table as far as this MMRCA deal is concerned.So little need for further discussion in this td.The interim order is to "seal the deal" before the UPA exits.One the camel's nose is in the tent,conventional wisdom suggests that you have to eventually allow the entire body in!This interim deal; will ensure that the Raffy's "stakes" are planted in Indian soil.One must now watch for the "interim" prices and long term costs.

We can't afford 126 F-35s in same time-frame either, so yes its certainly not a replacement. But the example of the F-35\ does illustrate how much (or rather how little) value-for-money the Rafale offers. The entire MMRCA contract needs scrapping especially since the Tejas program is finally over the hill. The only thing worse than spending $20 billion on 126 Rafales, is buying 18 Rafales and then negotiating a price for the rest.

[NRao]

How many Vietnamese people died between 1967 and 1973? If they can see the threat that's looming over them and pursue stronger strategic and military ties with the US (in addition to others), well ... our ties have been positively rosy in comparison. Bottom-line you don't have to love them, to do business with them.

Do not need to go that far into history, here is a very recent incidence:

Jan 6, 2014 :: U.S. and Iran Face Common Enemies in Mideast Strife

Even as the United States and Iran pursue negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program, they find themselves on the same side of a range of regional issues surrounding an insurgency raging across the Middle East.

*While the two governments quietly continue to pursue their often conflicting interests, they are being drawn together by their mutual opposition* to an international movement of young Sunni fighters, who with their pickup trucks and Kalashnikovs are raising the black flag of Al Qaeda along sectarian fault lines in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan and Yemen.

As long as we have that in common with the US, I'm not concerned about the possibility of sanctions. As far as 'defended' the US goes, my interest is primary to put the focus back on the bigger picture.

One point, in strategic thinking, there really is no "past".

And another, whatever any party has done or not done, each party acts in her own interest.

You state these, and others, in different words.

[Manish_Sharma]

I am a Bharatvasi. Just one with enough confidence in my country's economic and military heft, not to be terrified of sanctions.

What has confidence to do with it? When the war machinery would become unusable due to sanctions; how will confidence compensate. Strike a/c pilots will be going on gliders to throw grenades on enemy instead of PGMs and LGBs?

http://www.indiastrategic.in/topstories39.htm

Three years ago, an article in a US journal described how the US sanctions had hurt India: HAL Hedges - US sanctions were a bitter experience for Indian manufacturer.

It reported as to how "the state owned Indian aircraft maker was hurt by the US sanctions imposed in 1998 and when it sent flight control systems for its Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) to the US for evaluation, they were impounded. Exports of components from HAL's Advanced Jet Trainer and engines for its Dhruv Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) were caught up in the ban which even covered the servicing of Indian Navy's Sea King helicopters in the UK due to the use of US-manufactured parts".

My immediate reaction on reading the text was that "Those who forget history are condemned to repeat it."

The industrial policy resolution enunciated in 1956 with the preamble that "Self-reliance is the keynote of India's industrial policy." And went on to outline the many thrust areas, one of the predominant ones being the Defence sector.

The conflicts of 1962, 1965 and 1971 generated an experience which proved as to how fragile the fighting machinery could become due to lack Self Reliance in Aviation Lubricants of spare parts and consumables, and how risky it could be to be at the mercy of foreign suppliers who would be guided by their own interests.

And this was just lubricants.

Doesn't it boil you blood as a bharatvasi that US will check yearly that we have in no way tampered with their P-8s? Would a Bharatvasi buy a personal car from Ford or GM in case the company says "you sign here on EULA, EUMA clause that we can check that you're not tempering with our car you have bought and paid for anyway?"

This shows the sick control-freak mentality of khan. The french don't ask for it, russians don't ask for it. Nobody does, except amrika.

Your confidence is misplaced, the right way to show confidence is by feeling proud that our Air Force has created such a genius competition as MMRCA with its 643 parameters which even brazilians wanted to learn from for their own FX prgram.

The planes having to land with one engine switched off, they had all the 6 birds stripped and danced to see their strengths and weaknesses.

And through such a genius system they rejected 4 birds due to certain incapabilities which IAF is not ready to compromise on period

So as a Bharatvasi have confidence and proud in our Air Force and their professional judgement.

Let the rich bitch amrika learn from its past sins, change their own laws get in shape and come to us with ironclad contracts such as that it would be illegal for them to put sanctions against us. The amrikan expression "customer is always right", should be not only for their domestic populace but for countries with different race too. NOT WITH MENTALITY THAT UMMM WE CAN SELL INDIANS THE JAVELINS, BUT ONLY WITH LIMITED NUMBER OF LAUNCHERS ELSE IT TIPS THE BALANCE AGAINST PAKISTAN TOO MUCH.

Otherwise, we have beaten their super-capable f-86 sabres & pattons with our pathetic russian equipment. Those defeated captured pattons are testimony to that.

[Karan M]

I am a Bharatvasi. Just one with enough confidence in my country's economic and military heft, not to be terrified of sanctions.

Wonder why your confidence didn't confer the FBW DFCC & other stuff the sanctions delayed.
Emotions & all are good. They don't substitute for planning & hard facts.

I don't have to defend it or protect. You simply put yourself in their shoes....

Nope dont have to. That's their problem, not ours. We deal with outcomes not their feelings, emotions or other stuff.

[Victor]

Couple of things:

Sanctions are punishment for letting off a nuclear explosion, not because we are India. Not saying this is right or wrong but it is something I hope we do too were Bangladesh to set one off tomorrow.

Eula etc are not for average commercial buy-sell activity but for transfer of weapons to countries percieved to be friendly. Unlike Brits or French of Russians, US won't sell to any abdul with money, just those it trusts enough.

Finally, super duper selection process is fine but in the end it is subject to political compulsions. In our case it is not critical. We need fighters desperately, period.

[Aditya_V]

Victor- US supplies Pakis with its own aid money free of cost and looks the other way when Pakis, Arabs and Chinees flout all these laws. And this has been going on since we can clearly tell since 1971.

OT reagarding LCA in Rafale thread.


Regarding US engines, today we have no choice,

The plus point and I agree with the original decesion. The GE 404 has proved to be a very relibale engine over 2500 flights and no LCA crashed, any other engine and Given the record of Mig21, 27, 29 etc and we probably had 1 crash and arms mafia would have terminated the LCA.

ON rafale having gone down the road this far, unless the French have some really unreasonable demands which may not be in the public domain, I think we should induct these aircraft as soon as possible.

[Manish_Sharma]

Couple of things:
Sanctions are punishment for letting off a nuclear explosion, not because we are India. Not saying this is right or wrong but it is something I hope we do too were Bangladesh to set one off tomorrow.

Nope just 2 years before us french conducted tests but there were no sanctions. Even last china tests drew no sanctions.

Eula etc are not for average commercial buy-sell activity but for transfer of weapons to countries percieved to be friendly. Unlike Brits or French of Russians, US won't sell to any abdul with money, just those it trusts enough.

Trusts enough? Like porkis? Inspite of paying good money to buy we're supposed to feel honoured that great unkil has put trust in us....

Finally, super duper selection process is fine but in the end it is subject to political compulsions. In our case it is not critical. We need fighters desperately, period.

But we don't need particularly amrikan fighters.

[Viv S]

What has confidence to do with it? When the war machinery would become unusable due to sanctions; how will confidence compensate. Strike a/c pilots will be going on gliders to throw grenades on enemy instead of PGMs and LGBs?

http://www.indiastrategic.in/topstories39.htm

You're sidestepping the main question - will sanctions be applied? Let me put it another way, if you were the US pres/state sec or on the Congress' foreign relations committees, would you apply sanctions on India, if India conducted third round of nuclear tests?

My immediate reaction on reading the text was that "Those who forget history are condemned to repeat it."

In that case, Mongolia is the country that we along with the Chinese, ought to be really worried. By all means, learn from history but do ensure that it doesn't straitjacket your thinking.

Doesn't it boil you blood as a bharatvasi that US will check yearly that we have in no way tampered with their P-8s? Would a Bharatvasi buy a personal car from Ford or GM in case the company says "you sign here on EULA, EUMA clause that we can check that you're not tempering with our car you have bought and paid for anyway?"

This shows the sick control-freak mentality of khan. The french don't ask for it, russians don't ask for it. Nobody does, except amrika.

Well first off the clause has not been enforced for a long time. Secondly, if the equipment is ever inspected it'll be done at a time or place of India's choosing, so our operational routines will not be affected, nor will the Americans get access to sensitive military bases.

As for blood boiling, can I then assume that Russians completely disregarding the terms of a signed contract, or the French leveraging their monopoly to squeeze the GoI, does not 'boil your blood'? Both instances cost us money. Actual money that could have been assigned to more productive avenues, and not just a pinch to the pride.

Your confidence is misplaced, the right way to show confidence is by feeling proud that our Air Force has created such a genius competition as MMRCA with its 643 parameters which even brazilians wanted to learn from for their own FX prgram.

And through such a genius system they rejected 4 birds due to certain incapabilities which IAF is not ready to compromise on period

So as a Bharatvasi have confidence and proud in our Air Force and their professional judgement.

The MMRCA deal doesn't start and end with the flight evaluation. What the entire process does not incorporate is the cost factor, wherein we ended up shortlisting the two aircraft that offered the least value-for-money. And where the costs should have been amply clear given the L1/L2 bidding process, the CNC has spent the last 3 years merely negotiating the terms of the contract and its price. A price tag that given our current circumstance we can scarcely afford to pay.

Otherwise, we have beaten their super-capable f-86 sabres & pattons with our pathetic russian equipment. Those defeated captured pattons are testimony to that.

We haven't. Our soldiers, sailors and airmen have. And forcing them to fight with 'pathetic' equipment so we can feel better about the deal, is a disservice to their sacrifices.

[Viv S]

I am a Bharatvasi. Just one with enough confidence in my country's economic and military heft, not to be terrified of sanctions.

Wonder why your confidence didn't confer the FBW DFCC & other stuff the sanctions delayed.
Emotions & all are good. They don't substitute for planning & hard facts.

Sure. And the hard fact is that there's been a sea of change in India's military-economic strength and in the US' threat scenario since 1998.

Nope dont have to. That's their problem, not ours. We deal with outcomes not their feelings, emotions or other stuff.

What problems? I suggested putting ourselves in their shoes to predict their responses, not to empathize with them.

[Manish_Sharma]

We haven't. Our soldiers, sailors and airmen have. And forcing them to fight with 'pathetic' equipment so we can feel better about the deal, is a disservice to their sacrifices.

That's why we shouldn't get pathetic phat panting teens, f-18 didn't even have proper IRST, couldn't take of from leh!

Let's equip them with the winners: rafale or ef2k.

[Viv S]

That's why we shouldn't get pathetic phat panting teens, f-18 didn't even have proper IRST, couldn't take of from leh!

Let's equip them with the winners: rafale or ef2k.

We can't afford the Rafale. If you want something that offers us genuine value for money, you have to look no further than the Tejas.

[NRao]

US supplies Pakis with its own aid money free of cost and looks the other way

A very old and valid argument (and if you have read news reports US states it is in their self interest).

The IN was the first to venture into a "strategic partnership" and here is a very interesting point made by Adm Prakash (thanks to RajitO), for your consideration:

April 21, 2007 :: Admiral Arun Prakash On The New Indo-US Strategic Partnership

LiveFist: The Navy was at the forefront of the new strategic Indo-US complexion with exercises and exchanges at the topmost levels. How did you personally see this evolving equation, and what are the risks India needs to keep in mind with such a resolute foreign policy initiative on the military front?

Admiral Prakash: In international relations you cannot go wrong if you proceed on the basis of two premises: It is not altruism but self-interest that invariably motivates nations. There are no free lunches, and a price will one day have to be paid for everything. And, when you negotiate in the big league, you should be prepared to play “hard ball”.

That should cover all concerns presented here.

Every nation acts in her own self interest - US giving "aid" to Pakis, Soviet subs pinging in 1971 or Russia sending arms to India, BOTH nations are acting in their own self interest. (Which is one of the main reasons why Russia is crying foul when India looks elsewhere for arms - their national interest is hurt, even when India acts in her own interest.)

And, a price, for every action, will be paid at some point in time.

And, of course, perhaps the most important one: "hard ball". A strategist, no matter what happens or what does not, that person sleeps very, very well - with very normal BP.

Great powers obviously have fewer scruples in international relations and are far more conscious of “realpolitik” than novices like India. We have to get used to the idea that everything is negotiable if the supreme national interest is at stake. Therefore clarity of vision and maintenance of aim are vital principles in geo-politics.

This covers the UNSC veto and other similar aspects.

No matter who it is - how big a nation - it really does not matter. Everything has a price - the question is who pays what and when. AND, it works both ways. Just because a nations pulls a fast one today does not mean it will last for ever.

This has come out quite clearly in the Indo-US Nuclear Cooperation negotiations. The actual US goal right through has been to get India to “cap and roll back” its nuclear weapon programme, and every attempt has been made to push this agenda through. When faced with determined opposition by Indian negotiators, they have slowly stepped back, but still done their best to extract the maximum out of India.

US and Indian"interest".

As far as the IN-USN paradigm is concerned, in 2004 it was obvious that we had been sparring around for over a decade (since the Kicklighter Proposals) and while joint exercises and Op Sagittarius (the Malacca Strait patrol), did signify considerable progress, the US industry was chafing at not getting its teeth into the lucrative pie which they saw the Indian market as. It was obvious that a “hardware transfer” at this stage would enable the US industry to put a foot in the door and make an opening in the Indian market.

Again, another US "interest".

As far as the IN was concerned, we had managed without US origin hardware (except some components of our German origin HDW submarines) for over 50 years, and having established multiple other (more reliable) sources, were quite content to do without it. On the other hand, it was obvious that cutting edge technology in many warfare areas was to be had only in the USA, and an entry into the US arms market could have great operational benefits for us. It would also create a badly needed alternate source of supply for us.

Hard facts (to deal with while making decisions) - which way do you want to go? Both are open.

However, there were numerous roadblocks. Wherever the US industry representatives went, the first question they had to answer was: “What happens if your government imposes sanctions again?” They really did not have an answer for this, so after some time people stopped asking. Moreover, we found that not only is the US system full of internal tensions and contradictions, but that their bureaucracy is as strong and obtuse as ours.

Age old question, with no real answer in the business sphere, but there is an answer in the strategic sphere.

On a number of occasions, because they could not obtain complete alignment between the Pentagon, the Department of State, and Department of Defence, many well-intentioned acquisition plans fell through. The transfer of USS Trenton thus became a test case and a prestige issue for both navies. A determined push was applied at multiple points (NHQ, MoD, MoF and their counterparts in the USA) at the highest levels to ensure that the deal fructified at the eleventh hour.

Problems on both side, but overcome by strategic needs.

__________________

Also, if this Indo-US "Strategic partnership" has to be derailed, there are plenty of other opportunities: Iran is perhaps teh most volatile one (and there have been a handful of US Senators that have questioned Indian policies), then there is the ever present Pakistan (no need to get into that) and in the very recent past, Afghanistan and BD. In BD, it appears India and the US are sitting at the opposite end of the table and literally hitting each other.