Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions

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Viv S
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Viv S »

arthuro wrote:To put things straight:

-Your paper describe the program unit cost (cost of development+cost of procurement)/number of units procured.
Afraid that doesn't compute.

If the price including the R&D cost had to be calculated the simple way of doing that would be to divide the total program cost i.e. €40,690 million by the total production log i.e. 286. The PAUC therefore is equal to €142 mil or $192 million.


^^ This is as per the 2010 figures. According to the 2013 figure of €45.9 billion, the PAUC would be €160 mil or $217 million.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by arthuro »

Viv S wrote:
arthuro wrote:To put things straight:

-Your paper describe the program unit cost (cost of development+cost of procurement)/number of units procured.
Afraid that doesn't compute.

If the price including the R&D cost had to be calculated the simple way of doing that would be to divide the total program cost i.e. €40,690 million by the total production log i.e. 286. The PAUC therefore is equal to €142 mil or $192 million.


^^ This is as per the 2010 figures. According to the 2013 figure of €45.9 billion, the PAUC would be €160 mil or $217 million.
I don't see the issue. That just means that France is still investing of the rafale but does not increase the number of aircraft ordered. The program unit cost will mechanically go up just like in every fighter program. I am not sure you really understand those reports...
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Viv S »

arthuro wrote:I don't see the issue. That just means that France is still investing of the rafale but does not increase the number of aircraft ordered. The program unit cost will mechanically go up just like in every fighter program. I am not sure you really understand those reports...
This issue is not that the cost increased. That is an obvious and predictable thing.

[ Cost of Production + Cost of R&D ] / Production Volume = $200 mil approx (45900/286). This is the figure that includes R&D.

Point is, the $145 million figure stated in the 2010 comptroller report is the production cost (not including R&D).
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by arthuro »

Point is, the $145 million figure stated in the 2010 comptroller report is the production cost (not including R&D).
The only point is that you are wrong and refuse to admit it. If you did your homework properly instead of quoting documents you don't understand you would avoid a correction:

extract p50 above the chart:
Or, les cibles retenues ne cessent en général de décroître au fil du temps. Cette décroissance induit mécaniquement une baisse du coût global du programme (ou un ralentissement de sa hausse), mais également une hausse du prix unitaire des matériels commandés, les coûts non récurrents de développement restant évidemment inchangés dans l’opération ; de plus, cette même réduction de cible a des conséquences sur le déroulement du processus industriel, le rendant plus onéreux compte tenu du ralentissement de son rythme.
However, the targets set in general continue to decline over time. This decrease mechanically induced a decrease in the overall cost of the program (or slow its increase), but also an increase in the price of materials ordered, non-recurring development costs remaining unchanged course in the operation, in addition, the same reduction target has consequences on the course of the manufacturing process, making it more expensive given the slowdown in the pace.
Now this report can have encompassed a different perimeter for R&D (determining costs of a project is not an easy science as you can have common research program etc...) but it does include R&D. The fact that you are mistaken shows you don't even grasp the purpose of this document...

http://wayback.archive.org/web/20120130 ... mement.pdf

here is rafale unit procurement cost without R&D with the latest and most official figures :

Image
http://www.senat.fr/rap/a13-158-8/a13-158-814.html

Rafale C : 68,8 Meuros
Rafale B : 74 Meuros
Rafale M : 79 Meuros
Karan M
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Karan M »

And that is 90 mn to 110 mn, per unit.

Austin, these are per unit costs not LCC.

And there will be additional TOT, Capex in India, for mfg costs which will take it higher in all likelihood.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by arthuro »

And that is 90 mn to 110 mn, per unit.

Austin, these are per unit costs not LCC.

And there will be additional TOT, Capex in India, for mfg costs which will take it higher in all likelihood.
Indeed.

But still India is not going to replace MRCA by LCA mk2 and SU-30 mki upgrade. Either Indian MoD/IAF are being incompetent to spend money on the rafale if the two other options are sufficient either LCA mk2 and SU30 mki upgrade are not that great...

I bet the IAF and Indian MoD are more informed than the average forumer so they must have good reason to push for MRCA deal to be signed as soon as possible.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Viv S »

arthuro wrote:The only point is that you are wrong and refuse to admit it. If you did your homework properly instead of quoting documents you don't understand you would avoid a correction:

Now this report can have encompassed a different perimeter for R&D (determining costs of a project is not an easy science as you can have common research program etc...) but it does include R&D. The fact that you are mistaken shows you don't even grasp the purpose of this document...
Three posts and in each one of them you've shied away from the €45.9 billion figure for program cost. For 286 aircraft, that puts the unit cost of the Rafale at about $220 million. This figure includes production cost and R&D cost.

Its evident from the above that the $145 million cost is the cost of acquisition and does not include R&D investment.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Viv S »

arthuro wrote:I bet the IAF and Indian MoD are more informed than the average forumer so they must have good reason to push for MRCA deal to be signed as soon as possible.
Perhaps you could explain why the French MoD/AdlA/MN reduced the Rafale order from 286 to 225.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by member_23694 »

Point is what kind of air force we want. What kind of advantage 126-200 Rafale will bring to IAF. What kind of impact these aircraft have against China (for Pakistan it is an overkill).
My understanding is we desperately need Rafale since we need a powerful and attacking airforce rather than a good and defensive air force.
The last fighter to be added to IAF was the SU-30 , 15 years back. Future for IAF is told to be the Mk.2 and PAK FA. However both of these are in development and not expected to join in significant numbers before early next decade
So in the meantime some stability is needed in IAF and this is where Rafale and Su-30 comes in.
You develop new and powerful aircraft from a position of strength with time in hand rather than rush some thing to fix the falling strength of the IAF .
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Viv S »

dhiraj wrote:Future for IAF is told to be the Mk.2 and PAK FA. However both of these are in development and not expected to join in significant numbers before early next decade
The Rafale isn't joining the IAF is significant numbers before early next decade either. You'll have the first squadron of French-built Rafales delivered by 2018 earliest. HAL too is unlikely to deliver more than a squadron before 2020.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by member_23694 »

Viv S wrote:The Rafale isn't joining the IAF is significant numbers before early next decade either. You'll have the first squadron of French-built Rafales delivered by 2018 earliest. HAL too is unlikely to deliver more than a squadron before 2020.
I knew this question would come up. But then we will be having a continuous flow of Rafale from production line by then like Su 30 now.
But this cannot be guarenteed for the other aircraft
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Viv S »

dhiraj wrote:I knew this question would come up. But then we will be having a continuous flow of Rafale from production line by then like Su 30 now.
But this cannot be guarenteed for the other aircraft
And why not? The Tejas line will be capable of putting out 16 aircraft annually by 2017-18, when it switches to the Mk2. The Sukhoi line is already running at 16 aircraft/yr and will deliver the required quota of 270 aircraft by 2017. Assuming a contract to license build the PAK FA goes through, it'll run just two or three years behind the Rafale line.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by member_23694 »

Regarding Tejas : You missed the below point
dhiraj wrote:since we need a powerful and attacking airforce rather than a good and defensive air force
Patriotism is one thing and objectivity is another. Tejas is very good plane and Mk.2 will be better but Rafale is in a different league
and i am discussing this with China in perspective.

Regarding PAK FA : You mentioned
Viv S wrote:Assuming a contract to license build the PAK FA goes through
What if it does not go through. Also having Rafale will provide some additional leverage while negotiating for PAK FA and not end up like the Vikramaditya when we are left wanting for options

Point is we need to think in terms of great power who dominates its own and enemy airspace rather than some deterrent force. >= 126 fully loaded Rafale along with Super Su 30 for me is a symbol for power projection that India deserves.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by abhik »

dhiraj wrote:Regarding Tejas : You missed the below point
dhiraj wrote:since we need a powerful and attacking airforce rather than a good and defensive air force
If I may ask, How did you come to that conclusion?
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by member_23694 »

ok let me put it this way

of the below combination which will give IAF more dominance over enemy airspace and
better ground attack capability

Su 30 + LCA
or
Su 30 + Rafale

LCA is a good aircraft but i am talking about dominating enemy airspace and i am keeping China in mind. With the
Su 30 + Rafale combo we should be in a better position to fight over there air space rather than our

Having PAK FA and MK.2 over and above the Rafale and Su 30 will be an icing in the cake.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by abhik »

dhiraj wrote:ok let me put it this way
...
If your response is to my post above, then it doesn't answer the question on why we need a "powerful and attacking airforce rather than a good and defensive air force". Why do you say this?
of the below combination which will give IAF more dominance over enemy airspace and
better ground attack capability

Su 30 + LCA
or
Su 30 + Rafale
I think a combination of F-22s and F-35 will be even better. What is the best possible force structure is besides the point. Nobody is claiming that the Rafale is not more capable aircraft than the LCA. The question is why is a significantly cheaper combination of LCAs and the very large number of MKI that we already have(or is on the way) not enough?
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Philip »

Dear Abhik,numbers matter.From available info,250 MIG-21s are to be retired.The LCA,MK-1 and MK-2 are primarily meant to replace them.Even with the most optimistic production figures,we will be hard pressed to meet the MIG-21 replacement numbers as LCA MK-2 still hasn't flown and FOC expected for MK-1 only by Dec. 2014.The primary role of the MIG-21 was air defence with GA/close support secondary.SU-7s and MIG-27s were tasked for that role earlier,the MIG-27s after upgrades still remain.However,in the light of vastly improved air defences and newer more capable aircraft in the Paki inventory,and the new threat posed by China,the aircraft that performed the so-called "deep strike" role like the Jags are frankly a generation too old.Jag upgrades to Darin-3 std. with new engines from Honeywell,etc., have yet to arrive and even afterwards will not deliver the capability that either of the two Euro-canards bring to the battle.The only silver lining is the upgrade of M-2000s (hideously expensive) and MIG-29s,turning the latter into a genuine 4++ multi-role aircraft.But with even the MIG-27s and Bisons retiring around 2020,there is no alternative but to import 120+ multi-role single-seat aircraft that can perform the so-called "omni-role" of air superiority-cum-strike .The MKIs and Super Sukhoi std. upgrades are still for a heavy-weight twin-seat aircraft.We are not also privy to comparative sortie rates for the two,ease of maintenance,etc.The Rafales are obviously being tasked to take over part or all of the N-role that was earlier allotted to the M-2000s.FGFAs when they arrive post 2020 will also be too small in number and will have significant operating/maintaining costs that seem to come with advanced stealth aircraft,and will be our primary fighter to preserve air dominance countering China's own stealth birds.

Despite its huge cost per aircraft,the IAF say that they have no alternative.In that case they should've prioritised their acquisitions and delayed the extra 6 Hercules deal,which from statements made attributed to their top brass were alledgedly "shocked" by the decision of the MOD giving priority to (US) transports when they want "fighters".

In any future spat with Pak/China,prime targets will be the missile launchers and missile bases.IN GW1 and GW2,Saddam's ER Soviet era tactical missiles used to hit Israel and the Gulf,were prime targets,as they could've had WMD warheads.V.Adm. Arun Kumar has just recently written about Paki plans to use its Chinese origin cruise missiles with tactical N-warheads aboard its Chinese subs on order to attack IN task forces and carriers at sea,as well as targeting major Indian cities/bases located on the coast like Bombay,etc.The same missiles exist in mobile form on land.Locating them and taking them out will call for aircraft that can do the business.Perhaps that is why the IAF say that they have "no alternative".
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by adarshp »

dhiraj wrote:ok let me put it this way

of the below combination which will give IAF more dominance over enemy airspace and
better ground attack capability

Su 30 + LCA
or
Su 30 + Rafale

LCA is a good aircraft but i am talking about dominating enemy airspace and i am keeping China in mind. With the
Su 30 + Rafale combo we should be in a better position to fight over there air space rather than our

Having PAK FA and MK.2 over and above the Rafale and Su 30 will be an icing in the cake.
Where do you expect IAF to dominate over chinese airspace which will be more than a few hundred kilometers over the border to support our ground forces. For what other purposes do we require control of the skies. For all other types of engagements, realistic scenarios are counter strikes against air bases and ground assets, and airspace denial for chinese striking forces. Beyond this theatre of engagement, missiles can provide coverage and strike capability without this kind of money being spent. The kind of asset density which will require air dominance to support persistent bombing and enemy losses does not exist in proximity to Indian border for China. We will need to cross Tibet. We have a lot of assets to put in place for IAF and the rest of the armed forces, and fighters is just one component. It can not and should not be bought at a capital expenditure that would sacrifice other procurement due to lack of funding, or lead to unsustainable growth in year on year defense spending where this kind of procurement is heading.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by member_23694 »

It depends on individuals perspective .
For me yes a combo of F 22 + F 35 + B2 would be the best but US will not sell F 22 and B2.
So the next i go with Rafale since the IAF chose it from the rest.
Point is from my perspective the IAF should have the best equipment in which they
are comfortable to destroy the enemy when needed .
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Viv S »

dhiraj wrote:Regarding Tejas : You missed the below point
dhiraj wrote:since we need a powerful and attacking airforce rather than a good and defensive air force
I assure you I did not miss it. I just couldn't figure out how to explain that air warfare is not like a football game where everyone runs after a single ball and you can dominate the game by pushing into the other side's half. The air force cannot be powerful or attacking without the requisite number of aircraft in its inventory, and the Tejas is the most cost effective way to push the IAF's numbers up.

Patriotism is one thing and objectivity is another. Tejas is very good plane and Mk.2 will be better but Rafale is in a different league and i am discussing this with China in perspective.
'Different league'? You've clearly bought into the advertising then. Make no mistake, the Rafale will get destroyed just as thoroughly deep in the PLAAF airspace as any other type if it attempts any more than the odd one-off deep strike mission. And as far as air superiority goes, between a Rafale and a pair of Tejas Mk2s datalinked to a Super Sukhoi, my money's on the latter.

Regarding PAK FA : You mentioned
Viv S wrote:Assuming a contract to license build the PAK FA goes through
What if it does not go through. Also having Rafale will provide some additional leverage while negotiating for PAK FA and not end up like the Vikramaditya when we are left wanting for options
If there's a probability of the PAK FA contract getting delayed, the MoD's better served by investing time and effort into ensuring it meets our requirements, rather than blowing $20 billion+ to have a fallback that can't be relied on to the job as well.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by abhik »

Philip wrote:Dear Abhik,numbers matter.From available info,250 MIG-21s are to be retired.The LCA,MK-1 and MK-2 are primarily meant to replace them.Even with the most optimistic production figures,we will be hard pressed to meet the MIG-21 replacement numbers as LCA MK-2 still hasn't flown and FOC expected for MK-1 only by Dec. 2014.The primary role of the MIG-21 was air defence with GA/close support secondary.SU-7s and MIG-27s were tasked for that role earlier,the MIG-27s after upgrades still remain.However,in the light of vastly improved air defences and newer more capable aircraft in the Paki inventory,and the new threat posed by China,the aircraft that performed the so-called "deep strike" role like the Jags are frankly a generation too old.Jag upgrades to Darin-3 std. with new engines from Honeywell,etc., have yet to arrive and even afterwards will not deliver the capability that either of the two Euro-canards bring to the battle.The only silver lining is the upgrade of M-2000s (hideously expensive) and MIG-29s,turning the latter into a genuine 4++ multi-role aircraft.But with even the MIG-27s and Bisons retiring around 2020,there is no alternative but to import 120+ multi-role single-seat aircraft that can perform the so-called "omni-role" of air superiority-cum-strike .The MKIs and Super Sukhoi std. upgrades are still for a heavy-weight twin-seat aircraft.We are not also privy to comparative sortie rates for the two,ease of maintenance,etc.The Rafales are obviously being tasked to take over part or all of the N-role that was earlier allotted to the M-2000s.FGFAs when they arrive post 2020 will also be too small in number and will have significant operating/maintaining costs that seem to come with advanced stealth aircraft,and will be our primary fighter to preserve air dominance countering China's own stealth birds.

Perhaps that is why the IAF say that they have "no alternative".
We have been over this many times, still:-
-> The Rafale isn't the best way to increase numbers. LCAs production rates are proportional to the numbers ordered. There is no reason that the rate cannot be upped to something like 40-50 per year.
-> The Rafale isn't coming any faster than the LCA. The Rafale deal is unlikely to be signed before 2015 by which time the LCA would have attained FoC. We are also likely to see the Mk-2 ready about the same time Rafales will roll out of the HAL lines in around 2020.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by arthuro »

[Deleted]
Last edited by Raja Bose on 20 Jan 2014 03:12, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: User warned for making personal attacks.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Viv S »

arthuro wrote:Another internet idiot which cannot admit he was wrong...Doesn't even understand the report he is quoting as he obviously doesn't speak french...No matter the report clearly says it includes R&D and you quote in bold the report to show the idiot he was wrong, the idiot will persist in his ignorance. What a waste of time.
:lol:

This is the fourth post now in which you've ducked the Rafale's officially acknowledged program cost i.e. €45.9 billion, putting the Rafale's cost at $230 mil inclusive of R&D.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by arthuro »

This is the fourth post now in which you've ducked the Rafale's officially acknowledged program cost i.e. €45.9 billion, putting the Rafale's cost at $230 mil inclusive of R&D.
:lol:
And this this your "X"th post where you prove again that you are not intellectually able to debate on reports you don't even understand.
Cost reporting perimeter can vary from a report to another depending on the period or scope of analysis but the report you randomly quoted without understanding a single word as you don't speak french clearly stated R&D costs are included as quoted.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by srin »

Okay, even accepting that Rafale is really good and better than anything we have right now, there are a few questions that arise ...
A) fifteen years later, when FGFA/PAKFA, and probably AMCA are inthe IAF stables, would the Rafale still have a role or would it be considered "obsolescent" ?

B) For any fighter, there are the platform, sensors and weapons. Is there a reason why the MKIs cannot be upgraded for sensor fusion, AESA and very long range AAM capability ?

c) Rafale might be a great aircraft, but at what price will the deal stop making sense ?
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Viv S »

arthuro wrote:And this this your "X"th post you prove again that you are not intellectually able to debate on reports you don't even understand.
Cost reporting perimeter can vary from a report to another depending on the period or scope of analysis but the report you randomly quoted without understanding a single word as you don't speak french clearly stated R&D costs are included as quoted. But idiot don't learn.
Fifth post now. :lol:

And I don't need to understand French to know you're selling a load of bull on this forum and demanding to be thanked.

Rafale International Forum - A topic about programme costs

The Rafale's unit program cost is over €160 mil ($220 mil). Hell you haven't even tried denying it, preferring obfuscation and insults instead. Make your peace with that figure.. its not going away.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by arthuro »

Viv S wrote:
arthuro wrote:And this this your "X"th post you prove again that you are not intellectually able to debate on reports you don't even understand.
Cost reporting perimeter can vary from a report to another depending on the period or scope of analysis but the report you randomly quoted without understanding a single word as you don't speak french clearly stated R&D costs are included as quoted. But idiot don't learn.
Fifth post now. :lol:

And I don't need to understand French to know you're selling a load of bull on this forum and demanding to be thanked.

Rafale International Forum - A topic about programme costs

The Rafale's unit program cost is over €160 mil ($220 mil). Hell you haven't even tried denying it, preferring obfuscation and insults instead. Make your peace with that figure.. its not going away.
:lol:
And now you are talking about program unit cost when the whole discussion was on unit procurement cost without R&D. It seems that you have a hard time debating on a coherent line which tend to tell that you actually don't really understand what you are talking about.

If you took time to read just the first post from Tmor which I know you could have quoted this :
2013 updates :
Total programme cost :
€44.2Bn

Unit costs (without development) :
Rafale C : €66.2M (for 118 aircraft) ;
Rafale B : €71.2M (for 110 aircraft) ;
Rafale M : €76.1M (for 58 aircraft).
http://rafale.freeforums.org/a-topic-ab ... ts-t7.html

failed. (frankly the answer that debunked you was included in the very first post ! You could have done a minimum effort).
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by member_23694 »

srin wrote:Okay, even accepting that Rafale is really good and better than anything we have right now, there are a few questions that arise ...
A) fifteen years later, when FGFA/PAKFA, and probably AMCA are inthe IAF stables, would the Rafale still have a role or would it be considered "obsolescent" ?

B) For any fighter, there are the platform, sensors and weapons. Is there a reason why the MKIs cannot be upgraded for sensor fusion, AESA and very long range AAM capability ?

c) Rafale might be a great aircraft, but at what price will the deal stop making sense ?
Quoting you Sir since i don't want to get dragged in the other serious discussion going on in this thread :)

15 years later means around 2030 , $ 20 billion should be a small change for India and if not then it should also be understood that India will in big trouble then. Also the 20-25 billion will be spent across a period.
Further Rest assured that 15 years down the line if India is in a position to field large number of FGFA and AMCA then it will also be true that
it will be in a position to dump all the other fighters in its inventory or sell it to some its allies 8)

Also in the current environment I don;t see any 4+ Gen fighter coming with a life cycle cost of less than a $100 M .

BTW the price quoted in all above discussion for SU 30 is considering the fly away cost of life cycle cost and if not then what is the life cycle
cost for a SU 30 MKI
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Viv S »

arthuro wrote::lol:
And now you are talking about program unit cost when the whole discussion was on unit procurement cost without R&D...Are you mentally sane ? It seems that you have a hard time debating on a coherent line which tend to tell that you actually don't really understand what you are talking about.
You're the one pretending that the $145 mil cost is unit program cost (production + R&D). This when every senate, comptroller and media report proves that its $200 mil.

If you took time to read just the first post from Tmor which I know you could have quoted this :
Allow me to quote TMor -



The unit programme cost of a Rafale for France (tax payers + industrials) is €142M with VAT (119 without).

We have a total production cost of €40.7Bn...

This is made of R&D + production + VAT.

The above document gives us the production cost of each Rafale : €101.1M per Rafale with VAT.


http://rafale.freeforums.org/a-topic-ab ... ts-t7.html



This is from 2011, so the €40.7B program cost is now €45.9B. Unlike you TMor hasn't included R&D in the €101.1M figure. Maybe he doesn't know French huh?
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Viv S »

Just for perspective -


Image


COST: Upto $150 million
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by arthuro »

You're the one pretending that the $145 mil cost is unit program cost (production + R&D). This when every senate, comptroller and media report proves that its $200 mil.
Well YOU quoted a report with the 145M euros figure that you don't even understand and that you quoted randomly to look knowledgeable when you are just another ignorant that can't accept to be proven wrong. For your education this figure includes R&D and production costs as clearly stated and quoted in this very report. Simply the period and scope of costs that this report use differ from other reports (from the senate for instance).
Allow me to quote TMor -
The unit programme cost of a Rafale for France (tax payers + industrials) is €142M with VAT (119 without).
We have a total production cost of €40.7Bn...
This is made of R&D + production + VAT.
The above document gives us the production cost of each Rafale : €101.1M per Rafale with VAT.

This is from 2011, so the €40.7B program cost is now €45.9B. Unlike you TMor hasn't included R&D in the €101.1M figure. Maybe he doesn't know French huh?[
http://rafale.freeforums.org/a-topic-ab ... ts-t7.html
now let's keep quoting Tmor correctly with more recent and official figures which are always more reliable than guess work:
2013 updates :
Total programme cost :
€44.2Bn

Unit costs (without development) :
Rafale C : €66.2M (for 118 aircraft) ;
Rafale B : €71.2M (for 110 aircraft) ;
Rafale M : €76.1M (for 58 aircraft).
http://rafale.freeforums.org/a-topic-ab ... ts-t7.html

And don't forget that latest 2014 figures are even more up-to date :
Image
http://www.senat.fr/rap/a13-158-8/a13-158-814.html

All official sources over years are consistent : rafale production cost without R&D and with VAT is between 70M and 80M depending on versions.
Viv S
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Viv S »

arthuro wrote:Well YOU quoted a report with the 145M euros figure that you don't even understand and that you quoted randomly to look knowledgeable when you are just another ignorant that can't accept to be proven wrong. For your education this figure includes R&D and production costs as clearly stated and quoted in this very report. Simply the period and scope of costs that this report use differ from other reports (from the senate for instance).
That's $145M not €145M. And if this figure is inclusive of R&D costs, then explain the breakdown of the €160 mil unit program cost (which is always procurement cost + R&D cost).

For your education this figure includes R&D and production costs as clearly stated and quoted in this very report.
I just went through the report and it says nothing of the sort.

Par ailleurs, les devis de production prennent en compte la « cible » (nombre total d’exemplaires à produire) telle qu’elle est arrêtée au moment de leur chiffrage. Or, les cibles retenues ne cessent en général de décroître au fil du temps. Cette décroissance induit mécaniquement une baisse du coût global du programme (ou un ralentissement de sa hausse), mais également une hausse du prix unitaire des matériels commandés, les coûts non récurrents de développement restant évidemment inchangés dans l’opération ; de plus, cette même réduction de cible a des conséquences sur le déroulement du processus industriel, le rendant plus onéreux compte tenu du ralentissement de son rythme.

Which basically translates to - Target production estimates are usually reduced. This leads to a fall in overall cost, but increase in material cost. Non-recurring development costs remain unchanged. Production pace slows down and program becomes more expensive.

It does not say - the production costs given below are inclusive of R&D costs.
now let's keep quoting Tmor correctly with more recent and official figures which are always more reliable than guess work:
You're sidestepping the issue. TMor's post very clearly states that the €101.1M/$145M figure is the production cost and does NOT include R&D costs (which he calculated separatedly).

Unit costs (without development) :
Rafale C : €66.2M (for 118 aircraft) ;
Rafale B : €71.2M (for 110 aircraft) ;
Rafale M : €76.1M (for 58 aircraft).
Flyaway costs.
Last edited by Viv S on 20 Jan 2014 00:56, edited 1 time in total.
arthuro
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by arthuro »

That's $145M not €145M. And if this figure is inclusive of R&D costs, then explain the breakdown €160 mil program cost (which is always procurement cost + R&D cost).
Do you realize you are talking about a report you don't understand ? This figure includes R&D as already demonstrated & quoted although not the same cost perimeter as senate report. Feel free to quote the part that make you think otherwise.
You're sidestepping the point. TMor's post very clearly states that the €101.1M/$145M figure is the production cost and does NOT include R&D costs (which he calculated separatedly).
I am not. I bring official sources, you bring guess work.
Unit costs (without development) :
Rafale C : €66.2M (for 118 aircraft) ;
Rafale B : €71.2M (for 110 aircraft) ;
Rafale M : €76.1M (for 58 aircraft).
These are flyaway costs. The acquisition cost on the other hand is typically 40-50% higher than the flyaway cost.
Half way through as these costs do not include simulators or support facilities but includes spares (additional engines, radars and other parts which are ordered with each tranche of rafale).
Viv S
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Viv S »

arthuro wrote:Do you realize you are talking about a report you don't understand ? This figure includes R&D as already demonstrated & quoted although not the same cost perimeter as senate report. Feel free to quote the part that make you think otherwise.
The comptroller report says that €101.1M or $145 mil is the production cost. As shown in the excerpt above, it does not say that this includes R&D.

Production cost + R&D = Unit Program Cost = $230M (inc VAT)
You're sidestepping the point. TMor's post very clearly states that the €101.1M/$145M figure is the production cost and does NOT include R&D costs (which he calculated separatedly).
I am not. I bring official sources, you bring guess work.
Do you mean to say that TMor's post is wrong? Because it clearly places R&D costs separate from the €101.1M production cost.

Half way through as these costs do not include simulators or support facilities but includes spares (additional engines, radars and other parts which are ordered with each tranche of rafale).
^^ Do you have any sources to support this?

Acquisition cost is inclusive of support. So clearly the APUC is well in excess of these figures.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by arthuro »

The comptroller report says that €101.1M or $145 mil is the production cost. As shown in the excerpt above, it does not say that this includes R&D.
It says exactly the opposite as you quoted yourself : it does include R&D. The point of the paper is to show that Program Unit Costs (inclusive of R&D) go up when orders go down. As a consequence arbitrage taken at the beginning of a program is flawed.
Do you mean to say that TMor's post is wrong? Because it clearly places R&D costs separate from the €101.1M production cost.
Do you mean french senate and french parliament are wrong ? Tmor lacked information in 2010 which resulted in his calculation with the assumption/data he had this year. Of course when official figures are available viv S is silent...I wonder why. Besides look at years with official figures : quoted price are consistent: between 70 and 80 millions euros.
Acquisition cost is inclusive of support. So clearly the APUC is well in excess of these figures.
If you include support yes but conversely flyaway prices are lower than those figures. If you get rid of VAT and spares fly away costs is "roughly" between 50M to 60M depending on versions. Originally I started the debate because you and other were making apple and oranges comparisons like rafale APUC vs fly away cost of F35, SH etc...which was unfair.
Viv S
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Viv S »

arthuro wrote:It says exactly the opposite as you quoted yourself : it does include R&D. The point of the paper is to show that Program Unit Costs (inclusive of R&D) go up when orders go down. As a consequence arbitrage taken at the beginning of a program is flawed.
Please point where the comptroller report says that the production cost includes R&D. And yes the increase in the program unit costs has been shown - from €39.07 billion to €40.69 billion.

Do you mean french senate and french parliament are wrong ? Tmor lacked information in 2010 which resulted in his calculation with the assumption/data he had this year. Of course when official figures are available viv S is silent...I wonder why.
TMor would have read the comptroller report. He clearly did not find it saying that the production cost included R&D, that's why he's taken calculated it separately.

And the official reports clearly deal with flyaway cost not total acquisition cost.

If you include support yes but conversely flyaway prices are lower than those figures. If you get rid of VAT and spares fly away costs is "roughly" between 50M to 60M depending on versions. Originally I started the debate because you and other were making apple and oranges comparisons like rafale APUC vs fly away cost of F35, SH etc...which was unfair.
Please share sources confirming that the figures you posted include spares and exclude support.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Roperia »

I like Tejas but what's with comparing costs of a foreign fighter (which will be sold at premium) in the medium-heavy weight category that has very low RCS, has an in production naval variant, has good range, has a full suite of weapons for ground, anti-ship and air-to-air role and an impressive take off load with a mostly indigenous fighter in the light weight category that has no BVR capability (oh wait no gun too), 500 km range and an underpowered engine.

I'm all in for putting more money for Tejas than for buying Rafale but this comparison is absurd FWIW.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by NRao »

On
(Rafale) has an in production naval variant
I was about to post in the naval thread.

The Rafale naval version does NOT have a wing that folds.

At the moment I do not know how that will impact anything, but as compared to a MiG-29K (which has a folded wing), the Rafale occupies some 30-35% more area. It should boil down to the design of a hanger, but at the moment I do not think the naval Rafale is an option.

On Indian vs. Rafale, India - in the past week or two - has been moving very quickly to do the right thing. Whatever is happening with the LCA it is certainly moving in the right direction and moving much faster than ever. The Rafale is a mere filler (yeah, it will not sound right on the internet, but Rafaleiets have to learn to live with that).
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Karan M »

arthuro wrote:India is willing to buy the rafale with all the Technology, know-how etc at a high price compared to LCA mk2 and a Mki upgrade because there is simply a reason some on this board refuse to see...

IAF/india know that nor the LCA Mk2 nor the Mki upgrade will bring the capabilities and/or technologies that are dreamt by some members on this board.

Instead of accusing IAF or Indian MoD of incompetence for choosing the rafale you should instead understand what are the reasons which make them say "there is no other alternatives" and why they are ready to pay so much to get the rafale and its technology.

Obviously they are not so confident with the LCA mk2 and Su-30 mki upgrade to stop pushing for a rafale deal as some would like.

There is a distortion between what is dreamt by LCA/SU30 enthusiast which gives LCAmk2 and SU30 all attributes and the reality perceived by Indian authorities. Otherwise like many say : Why going ahead with the rafale ?

I believe they are perfectly aware there is a huge difference in technology and capabilities in favor of the rafale. I believe they know LCA mk2 potential is very limited and that they are less than confident considering previous record on this program. I believe Su-30 mki upgrade (if it happens...) will increase sensor&EW performance but it will not change SU-30 mki old gen weapon architecture. It will remain a big aircraft with a big radar but with limited sensor fusion and thus will remain a step behind in terms of sensor integration, situation awareness and survivability. This rationale is consistent/coherent with decision of Indian MoD/IAF to push for a rafale deal.
Thats your nationalism coming to the fore in terms of jingoistic over the top proclamations that the Indian purchase of the Rafale is merely about technology, and that too superior French technology.

In the process, you avoid looking at the basic facts that the IAF wants a new source of supply than just being reliant on Russia alone for its requirements. The FGFA is also coming with Russia. The LCA is a tactical fighter with lesser range and payload but fits exactly into the IAF light category for which its designed.

And it would help to know the history of the MMRCA program. It was about procuring a cheaper single engine, medium weight plane, the Mirage 2000 to boost up the numbers when the Su-30 MKI program was still developing and a new induction. Instead, the Indian Auditors had it made into a multivendor competition with relaxed requirements. In which case the IAF went for the best 2 of the lot and picked the L1.

It has little to do with the Rafale being sooper dooper technology per se. If that were the criterion, the IAF would wait for the FGFA AND jump on to the JSF program which has better technology than on the Rafale, truth be told.

As regards Super 30 architecture, you really know little about the program, so please stop embarrassing yourself. It envisages a new IMA mission computing set up and the Su-35 already has sensor fusion.
Big Fighter, Big Glass
Posted by Bill Sweetman at 6/20/2007 3:14 AM

Sukhoi's Su-35,.... dominated by two 15-inch diagonal LCDs - more glass area than any other fighter cockpit, including that of the JSF. There are no mechanical displays in the cockpit, and the pilot interacts with the displays using a cursor control device on the stick and soft-key pushbuttons surrounding the glass.

The two screens are each split into four sub-windows, which are normally managed automatically according to the mission plan. Primary flight instruments are carried on the left side of the right-hand screen, with the left-hand screen being the primary display for maps and targeting information - so that the pilot can operate the screen with his left hand with the right hand on the stick.

According to Sukhoi engineer Alexey Mukhin, the Su-35 has a sensor-fusion avionics system which assigns each target a single identity - Sukhoi calls it a "passport" - and indicates which sensor or sensors have tracked it. The fighter also has an intra-flight datalink that can support four groups of four fighters simultaneously and share targeting information between them.
Guess what? The Super 30 upgrade pics so far show exactly the same cockpit layout. Food for thought, to anyone who had not brought so totally into my plane strongest coolaid (the Typhoon has it too, is being finetuned, and so does the F22/JSF and the Super Hornet is getting it in a block upgrade).
The Su-35 introduces integrated flight and propulsion control using three-dimensional thrust vectoring, providing full-envelope carefree handling with any combination of loads. It has electronic throttle controls and the system also manages the fuel load. One novel feature: when the pilot extends the refuelling probe, the aircraft automatically switches to a more stable flight control mode.
And needless to say, the Rafale does not even have the more proven TVC - which is operational on IAF Flankers.. think about what that does to nose pointing...and nor does it even have a FLIR channel yet.

Coming back to sensor fusion...and so will the LCA MK2 which program BTW, despite your constant disparaging allusions to it, has consistently delivered on the avionics front in terms of its mission computing, EW & sensor integration, with a cycle time of 2-3 years before complete replacements, let alone upgrades.

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-_vOp ... rences.jpg (the first point notes: 1.Advanced glass cockpit with high performance graphics to support situational awareness, Decision Support and data fusion)
Which facet, sensor data integration, BTW is already being demonstrated on the Indian AEW&C program
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XsneTR3Mxbk/T ... ster-1.jpg

Tell you what, stick to program costs and stuff and pure Rafale stuff, you follow that program and hence you are better off there then talking up tech comparisons with programs you barely understand or even follow.
Last edited by Karan M on 20 Jan 2014 02:59, edited 1 time in total.
Karan M
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Karan M »

Roperia wrote:I like Tejas but what's with comparing costs of a foreign fighter (which will be sold at premium) in the medium-heavy weight category that has very low RCS, has an in production naval variant, has good range, has a full suite of weapons for ground, anti-ship and air-to-air role and an impressive take off load with a mostly indigenous fighter in the light weight category that has no BVR capability (oh wait no gun too), 500 km range and an underpowered engine.

I'm all in for putting more money for Tejas than for buying Rafale but this comparison is absurd FWIW.
The mere differential of the cost of one Rafale and one Tejas ($80 Mn), India could integrate a similar range of weapons as on the Rafale (and BTW, its getting its gun & BVR capability certified this year).

The 500 km radius (not range! ferry range on the MK1 is reported as 1700 km) is similarly pointless to nail down as it without IFR and OBOGS (both to be integrated), and as regards an underpowered engine - tell that to the French, they face the same accusation from many.

The LCA BTW has an engine that is 5kn more than that on the Gripen and on a lighter airframe to boot, with more fuel. Go figure on the IAF specs before thinking that the LCA engine or even it overall merely needs more thrust.

And if you look into it further, LCA specs were drawn up with IAF asking for an uber fighter able to do instantaneous nose pointing & high STR, so as to orient short ranged, slower R60MKs onto the target. Today, it has a HMS with all aspect HOBS of the most lethal kind with near BVR ranges. Think about whether lethality has declined or improved on what was asked for, and as to why IAF is ok with 40 MK1s not merely 10 trainers etc. The IAF test pilots class it firmly as an upgraded Mirage 2000.

The MK2 as things stand is in the class of the NG, with IAF leveraging what the Navy asked for.

Also, money is not infinite and does not grow on trees. If the Rafale is indeed coming in at $110Mn+ (many more considering production costs with new eqpt which will be passed onto the IAF) vs a $65 Mn Su-30 MKI and a $26 Mn LCA, its worth asking what India gets out of the deal.

I support the Rafale purchase, but the prices have to be reasonable for it to continue to make sense. If the differential is so much that many force multipliers could be purchased a much larger inventory of weapons built up, more programs supported... then it becomes a tough call.
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