Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 10 Apr 2014 22:08

^^^^ SRoy, saar. (WRONG message you are reading)

Yogesh · Post by **Yogesh** » 10 Apr 2014 22:10

Sroy Jee- guess Fanne jee said all in jest onree & was mucho in lighter vein

shyamoo · Post by **shyamoo** » 10 Apr 2014 22:18

Mort/SRoys saars.. CYA... I'm sure you have figured it out by now..

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 10 Apr 2014 22:21

If its in jest...well he shouldn't do so.

His posts (3-4 other people also) are from direct sources and has leeway to post stuff without any journalistic reference.
Such poster carry some responsibilities.

I just referred to a BRF dormant member to read the thread and see if he/she can contribute. These are not BRF regulars, he/she has pointed out the post that I've just objected to.

He/she doesn't know who is 'fanne' and what he posts.

BTW, deleted my post.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 10 Apr 2014 22:26

Methink couple enroute to some 5star lunch party direct after voting hence the dress.

siddharth mallya and bollywood studs dress like that...ganji and coat, no shirt.

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 10 Apr 2014 22:30

disha wrote:Good analysis by 5forty3 team (or a single person)., let us hope things are as optimistic as the team projects.

Haryana was a wash since INLD did not join BJP. I never gave more than 3 in Haryana to BJP. Anything else is bonus.

Kids do not remember the chautala days of vidhan sabha elections where newspapers reported "Mayhem in Mahem". Yes, 20-30 deaths (officially) during state elections was considered normal!

^And Vadra is on steroids. He is building his muskels using steroids! And his goonda-type image is showing through. However, Priyanka vadra seems to be genuinely sold on him.

I thought the dude was fat and short. WTF do I see?

I didnt know that he caught the gh@y too.

Denis · Post by **Denis** » 10 Apr 2014 22:42

According to sources from not to be named sarkari agency it will be 4 for BJP in Haryana including Gurgaon. Delhi 6-1 in favour. Clean sweep in west UP.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 10 Apr 2014 22:44

fanne wrote:Btw we all understand here that exit polls are banned, what 5forty3 is doing is wishful analysis or how he wants things to turn up. He is not dessemating that news. We some drunkyards are spending money worth a movie ticket to just read and be on a high, forget the world problem around (as in movies) for few hours.

IIRC I dont think polls are banned; it is releasing results which is embargoed.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 10 Apr 2014 23:01

^ Who wears coat in this hot weather and Pink trousers ? Seriously!!
But then to each one his own.. The guy has sacrificed his whole family to reach where he is..

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 10 Apr 2014 23:12

To be honest, it's not really hot in Delhi these days. Quite pleasant. But he is a buffoon nevertheless.

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 10 Apr 2014 23:17

Bhere ij Atri Gurudev? We want MH update.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 10 Apr 2014 23:20

Amravati – 65%
Ramtek – 55.5%
Nagpur – 59%
Yavatmal -60%
Chandrapur – 65%
Akola – 65%
Bhandara-Gondiya – 61%
Wardha – 64%
Gadchiroli – 61%
Buldhana – 59%

NDA will win handsomely in Vidarbha. Voting could have been slightly better. Summer taking its toll. Summer may be one factor working against NDA. deters people from coming out to vote. And its still early april. I wonder how janta will behave on 12th may etc..

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 10 Apr 2014 23:24

Sorry sir this is disclaimer only - Btw we all understand here that exit polls are banned (rather dissementing that info), what 5forty3 is doing is wishful analysis or how he wants things to turn up. He is not dessemating that news. We some drunkyards are spending money worth a movie ticket to just read and be on a high, forget the world problem around (as in movies) for few hours.

Typically I have seen Indian surveyes have nationwide sample of 25,000 (on the higher side). Exit polls also may have similar sample sizes. If you look at what 543 is doing, it has 100 field workers, I would imagine they would be each getting 50 people (high end, but then some interview etc could be simultaneous- like giving paper etc to fill in) so in a day a sample of 5000. With 5 rounds of voting (2 small rounds not included), they will also have a sample size of 25,000, same as Neilson or CSDS. The only benefit here is that here the methodology is superior (or so I hope/infer) and the person will not lie/manipulate.

To be scientifically accurate, you need a sampel size of 15,000 per seat (99% confidence, 1-2% error margin - required in UP/Bihar , less so in MP, Rajasthan), lets take an average sample size of 10,000. At least there are 400 seats where you need survey (even if you assume say Vidisha will be won by Sushma and Amethi by RG). So you need sampe of 60 Lakhs. Now that needs a lot of money. When you analyse these polls, please keep this in mind. You are predicting something that requires 60 lakh (scientifically) on basis of 25,000 sample size.

Now if you want that sample size to grow, please give money it to the most competent team - 543. You would aslo know if EVM magic is for real or not.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 10 Apr 2014 23:38

8 out of 10 seats are assured for NDA. Sena will win 4/4.. BJP will win 4/6. I am worried about gadkari.. He may barely pull through.. I hope I am wrong.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 10 Apr 2014 23:39

Please note that the absolutely tackily clad pics of Vadra may be embargoed by MSM, so if you need them for future reference, please save them offline and post elsewhere.

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 10 Apr 2014 23:42

Supratik wrote:
satya wrote: Wrong . Very wrong assumption ! They ( west) want to deal simple as that . They are showing the sacrificial lambs simple as that . Since when does real dealers became media personalities ,media & its make up shakeup is one thing boss , dealing is whole another . Name one forex dealer who come regularly in front of media & they are the one with real balls who make quote for 1 -5 yards just like that . At best these 2 takkas are mere note/letter carriers ( remember Barkha's role in Radiagate ) . Even that role will go for a toss 'if' Modi become PM hence all the cheekna chilana in indian media . That's what they hoped for & aspired for under Congi rule . Modi is a very str8 dealer. Ask those who dealt with him . Str8 to point no beating around the bush .
It is not based on assumption but twenty years of analysis. They will work with whoever wins Delhi as long as they make money but their horses in the subcontinent are the Islamists and leftists. You should start with Jinnah, Muslim League and partition.

Guys - when are we going to reverse this on to them ?. We need to prime our current & next generation for this. I want that Indian educated, Indic guys teach them their own History with dollops of striking details on how they have played havoc with the whole word during their bloody colonial ruling period.
I also want them to go to the state where they are willing to flagellate themselves to source the latest technologies, heavy engineering products & medicines out of our hands. Hope NM secures the shaky foundation for this to happen in a widespread fashion in a few decades from now.

Ameet · Post by **Ameet** » 10 Apr 2014 23:46

muraliravi wrote:http://5forty3.in/subscription/

Guys, please subscribe, its just Rs. 500. If you want quality exit poll data, you should go for it.

Though this may not sound right, I will request subscribers not to post his future analysis anywhere on the web. Let people pay and read it. He needs to pay his field workers to collect data.

Done deal.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 10 Apr 2014 23:53

I am dhoti shivering about the less than expected voter turnout. I was expecting it to be 70+ across all seats. Does this dent the phenomenon that is a Modi wave?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 10 Apr 2014 23:54

What are the voter turnout stats ? Is there a list of stats after polling ended ? There are several numbers for intraday turnout, which can be confusing because turnout trends are not linear but generally fat tailed.

Added: I reported detailed stats for day1: Upper Assam/Tripura turnout data

I would appreciate others helping by adding more stats on a seat-by-seat basis for each phase.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 10 Apr 2014 23:56

The EC must have press releases on the voting. Their website does not have the latest and greatest of elections. The data must be good, but poorly organized. Any links please? Useful for the peaceful transition dhaaga.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 11 Apr 2014 00:10

Nagaland could have had 91% polling http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-re ... nd-1976790

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 11 Apr 2014 00:18

undie tv

rvishwak · Post by **rvishwak** » 11 Apr 2014 00:20

SwamyG wrote:
amdavadi wrote:^^^^ SwamyG,

I know devang since his diaper days. When he is silent he knows team he is supporting is doing good . When he starts shouting than you start to worry....
Please accept virtual Tirunelvelli Halwa onlee. No harm in shivering till 16th. Irrational exuberance does not do good.

Meanwhile Su Swamy called Babur and Mir Baqui foreigners to Burkha's face. No protest from her or sanctimonious rhetoric. Digvijaya's face remained crestfallen, shook his head a little bit like an old grumpy grandpa. Burkha not displaying the fighting spirit.

I dislike Su Swamy, but love the way he dishes out to MSM to Congress. Digvijaya got offended so soon

In the same debate, when the discussion on NAMO mentioning his wife while filing election nomination was going on, SuBu said why don't we discuss the problem with Raul baba due to which he is not able to marry, Dogvijay threatened to walk out of debate

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 11 Apr 2014 00:20

Here's data from firstpost and oneindia about Delhi constituencies, though their numbers don't match exactly. Where they conflict, I picked the higher number. Note that the firstpost numbers seem newer since the numbers are mostly higher in it. However, oneindia has more data, but all their turnout figures may be intermediate and not final ones:
Delhi reports highest turnout in 3 decades
Updates Phase 3 LS turnout

Code: Select all

Seat   2009    2014
NorthEast   ??  67.08%
Chandni Chowk   ??   66.8%
NorthWest(res)  ??  61.38%
East   ??   65.69%
West   ??   65.64%
South   ??   62.67%
New Delhi  ??  65.9%

UP

Code: Select all

Seat   2009   2014
Aligarh  ??   60.04%
Baghpat ??  65.6%
Bijnor ??   65.38%
Bulandshahr ??  29.36%
Gautam Buddh Nagar ?? 58.83%
Ghaziabad ?? 60.2%
Hapur ?? 63%
Meerut ?? 62.68%
Muzaffarnagar 54.37% 67.78%
Kairana ?? 70.85%
Saharanpur ?? 70.64%

Others:
Maharashtra saw 56% polling. In 2009, it saw 55.7% polling.
Kerala saw 75% polling. Last time, it was 73.52% in the southern state.
Jharkhand saw 58% polling. Last time, it was 50.9%.
MP saw 66% polling. Last time, it was 53.66%.
Jammu and Kashmir saw 65% polling. In 2009, the figure was 49%.

Please copy my post and fill in 2009 numbers if you can find them. I'm impressed with 65% turnout in UP. I take back my pessimism regarding muraliravi's assumption of >60% turnout. It looks like overall turnout there can make it to close to 70% with strong voting in central and east UP.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 11 Apr 2014 00:22

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/dam/assets ... allery.jpg
mmmm.. that ink is very watery!

James B · Post by **James B** » 11 Apr 2014 01:25

In Jammu’s refugee camps, a BJP wave could sweep votes

Kaushik Kumar, a 62-year-old, is among the one lakh refugees from West Pakistan who have been living in Jammu since 1971. He is among the 40,000 refugees who are part of the electorate for Jammu-Poonch parliamentary constituency.

"We always used to vote for Congress party, but this time I will vote for Modi’s candidate. At least, if he comes to power, my grandchildren can avail of the facilities, which I and my children never did,” Kumar told Firstpost.

Looks like BJP has good chance in Jammu this time.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 11 Apr 2014 01:35

In Jammu’s refugee camps, a BJP wave could sweep votes

"We always used to vote for Congress party, but this time I will vote for Modi’s candidate. At least, if he comes to power, my grandchildren can avail of the facilities, which I and my children never did,” Kumar told Firstpost.

The displaced refugees, according to Kumar, have been waiting for a redressal of their grievances, but state and central government has failed to address their issues.

The refugee population and migrants living in Jammu can vote in the Lok Sabha elections, but not in the Assembly elections and is one of the long pending demands of this group. They cannot apply for a government job or buy property in the state of Jammu and Kashmir.

Most of these refugees came into Jammu after 1947 and after the two wars of 1965 and 1971 between India and Pakistan. A majority of them are Hindu and residents of west Pakistan and some of them are Muslims.

During a recent rally in Jammu, the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi had recently demanded justice for refugees from Pakistan.

Pradeep Sharma, another refugee from Pakistan, said the entire refugee community will be voting for BJP as Modi had promised them their rights if he comes to power.

The Congress candidates from Jammu Lok Sabha Constituency had recently claimed to have the support of the refugee population. Yet refugee leader Labha Ram Gandhi, who filed his nomination papers for the Jammu-Poonch Parliamentary constituency, later withdrew saying that he would back of BJP candidate.

Gandhi announced that his organization has taken a decision to openly support BJP in view of Modis' recent promises.

Gandhi said that despite Supreme Court directives, parties like Congress have all along exploited them and got their votes, but did nothing to empower them.

The BJP leadership, according to sources, has been in constant touch with refugee leaders, trying to persuade them in favour of their candidate.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 11 Apr 2014 01:35

What is the word about Kerala this time? Any projections if the BJP will make any headway and pick up a few seats?

Manu · Post by **Manu** » 11 Apr 2014 01:35

Voted at 6 PM at Sri Ram School in Vasant Vihar. In the assembly elections, my family and I left the place with mixed feelings as the Louis Vuitton people were kamal and Nepali Basti people were AAP.

Not this time.

Sticking my neck out.

BJP has won Delhi. 6, if not all 7.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Apr 2014 01:36

My twitter feed was saying Tharoor is a distant 3rd.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 11 Apr 2014 01:37

hanumadu wrote:
disha wrote: ^And Vadra is on steroids. He is building his muskels using steroids! And his goonda-type image is showing through. However, Priyanka vadra seems to be genuinely sold on him.
Why can't he dress his age and dress for the occasion? He seems to have her eating out of his hand. He is running circles around the entire family and his corruption will be their down fall (further than it would have been otherwise).

Vadra looks like an aging gay pimp.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 11 Apr 2014 01:42

the modi wave can be measured only after a quantum vote needed for it.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 11 Apr 2014 01:46

pink trousers and white socks in UK is hallmark of gay, vadra & priyanka are completely detached from reality, no idea how much water has flown under. Priyanka is talking to media as if her arrival will turn con by 180*

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 11 Apr 2014 02:03

Ok should I start worrying?

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 11 Apr 2014 02:09

Rvishwak: yup that is the part I was talking about where digvijaya got so offended.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 11 Apr 2014 02:34

Check phase 4 and 5. Total 8 seats, a delaying tactic by EC to help Congress.

http://eci.nic.in/eci_main1/GE2014/Schedule/Phase4.htm

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 11 Apr 2014 02:51

Facebook Would Like to Influence India's Elections

http://valleywag.gawker.com/facebook-wo ... 1561753922

Why is Facebook so interested in India's election, asks Buzzfeed. More like why not! The event will mark the largest democratic election ever conducted around the globe. For a social network in a midlife-crisis, a country where half the population is under 24 has to look like salvation.Just yesterday, Facebook announced that it had 100 million active users in India, the second country to cross that mark after the U.S., and would reset its sight on 1 billion users. India is also the only country where Facebook can even "hope to corral" 1 billion new users.One way to get there? Inserting yourself into the political process of the world's largest democracy. Early last month, Facebook India launched an election tracker, modeled after one used in the 2012 presidential elections in the United States. Facebook explained this decision with the kind of language you expect to read in The Circle:
"Our mission is to make the world more open and connected," Facebook's Public Policy Manager Katie Harbath told BuzzFeed in a phone interview. "Part of that is helping to connect citizens with the people who represent them in government. Elections are the first way that citizens have that opportunity to voice their opinions."As you'll notice, however, that election tracker has some fine print at the bottom:Candidates are ranked based on the number of mentions on Facebook
Facebook's tracker may end up being more accurate than a Gallup poll, but this handy visualization of which candidate is in the lead is not representative of the Indian populous. Only an eighth or so of eligible Indian voters are on Facebook :"Of the 800+ million people eligible to vote in India, 170 million of them are on the Internet and well over half of Internet users in India are using Facebook," Facebook spokesperson Andrew Stone told BuzzFeed in an email. That said, Buzzfeed reports that segment of the population that might use an American company as part of its voting process is growing:Half of India's total population is younger than 24, and about 150 million people in India's total electoral pool are first-time voters. According to some estimates, more than 40% of India's eligible voters are between 18 and 35 years old. Surveys have found that 70% of all Indian students own smartphones. This is all to say: For the first time in Indian history, there is a significant overlap between the urban, educated, tech-savvy India and the India that lines up to cast its vote.
Facebook claims the goal is to drive more citizens to the polls, rather that get new users, and has built some features to that end. Facebook India features a button labeled "I'm a Voter," to allow users to tell their friends they voted. The button is only visible to users over 18, when voting is taking place in their region. Google also launched a "Know Your Candidate" tool that "shows criminal cases against a particular leader along with their assets info." NDTV said its utility was limited:If you were wondering whether the 79-year-old candidate from your constituency has a verified Twitter presence, then this tool is extremely handy - however, the information being presented is a very basic snapshot, and should only be used as the first stop on the way to making an informed choice.Google has been launching country specific "election portals" since the Arab Spring. Facebook efforts to take some of the democratic election market share have been successful. Buzzfeed says "Facebook pages for Indian politicians and parties have garnered likes faster than any other political pages worldwide."

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 11 Apr 2014 03:12

All the social media "giants" are getting into this business of social metrics concerned to electioneering and making a business out of it(I.e tweaking and modifying outcomes to suit dictates or patrons).

Similar to facebook using its "likes" system to delineate political heirarchies , googal chacha too has introduced a trends measuring feature on its "election portal" and its supposedly based on a automatic algo of number of searches on a candidate name .
Recently saw a farticle in our paid media (sourced from Roosi MTS "tracker" from its Social Samosa) claiming that Modi , Khujli and dogvijay are the politicos against whom there is maximum negative chatter .
http://www.deccanherald.com/content/396 ... -modi.html

A recent post related to Google election portal quoted below.

Lilo wrote:.......

Btw Google chacha has created a special portal for Indian elections.
http://www.google.co.in/elections/ed/in/home

Guess More money to be made by tweaking perceptions and filtering news stories and trends for sAAP and CongI in contract from the eNREGA kitty (official = mere 500Cr , unofficial =??)

http://www.ndtv.com/elections/article/e ... pie-502136

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 7#p1620467

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 11 Apr 2014 03:17

mee dhoti shivering

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 11 Apr 2014 03:42

While there is always a first time...but blaming EC has become frequent here. For my own education is thereba history of EC bias? Several institutions have been diluted and corroded by INC. Discounting Personal inclinations, is there an institutional bias by EC?