Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 14 Apr 2014 16:15

SRoy wrote:unfortunately non-summer time frame is not feasible either.

summer (Apr-June)->monsoons(Jul Sept)->festivals(Oct-Jan)->school exams(Feb-Mar/Apr)?

it is the summer breaks that ensures max participation

PS: Anyway major schools are still open in all of April. Damage will be minimal in May.

Exactly the school holidays in delhi start from 15 of May, I don't know about other places.

amritk · Post by **amritk** » 14 Apr 2014 16:16

Singha wrote: only exception is brazil where again the votes are not stored but transmitted by satellite link somewhere http://www.intelfreepress.com/news/braz ... ctions/195
.

IOW the data are submitted in near real time, reducing the potential for "post-processing"/photoshopping etc. IIRC in Brazil voting is completed and results declared same day.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 14 Apr 2014 16:21

I started watching one clip about women's safety (at least that was the title), but listening to the video made me wonder, if highly educated intelligent students in LSRCC can carry such discourse, it is alarming. Is the line of thought the baseline in institutions of higher studies in India these days or is it more a Sagarika Ghose crowd?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxZoUtW4tTw

Most of their demands are valid and genuine, but the alienation from mainstream politics/social-norms/rural-India is absolute. They would be more comfortable in SUNY than in DU.

This is another one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PF6sh1Z68hg

Even Meera Sanyal has to comment that you guys are disconnected from reality.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 14 Apr 2014 16:24

1. Japan and Germany two of most technically advanced nations not using EVMs as their various studies showed it was not possible to make a perfect foolproof EVM.

2. US also has now only reduced to 10 states which use EVM that too with a paper trail.

3. Even in our sansad of 543 many times the EVM system has malfunctioned.

4. To go there and press a button without showing me that exact thing I wanted to happen has happened, makes me believe that EVM in its current form is very very very baaaad for our nation.

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... r#p1330599

hnair wrote: There is no printer in the world that does not need a brick-sized manual

Why do they need printers et al? Just have a machine punch the logo that the voter selected in the existing machines, onto a slip that voter carries into the booth with a traceability code. Then the voter verifies if it is the right selection as the machine one. S/he comes out and drops the paper into a box in front of the commandeered-babu who mans the booth. The original machines can be used for quick tallying as is being done now. In case of challenges, one can dump the box' contents and start sifting the paper that has the punch marks.

The machine can be super simple, as it just makes a single pre-defined imprint and am pretty sure the current machines support THAT

(Sounds like the beginning of an Epsongate "billion printers needed"....)

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 14 Apr 2014 16:42

How is the voting going today?

Sumeet · Post by **Sumeet** » 14 Apr 2014 16:49

If EVMs have to be used why not make it ourselves locally after all how tough can that software be to make ?

Any reason why we should have to use EVMs ? I mean we can discard them go to old paper trail ways.

sunnyP · Post by **sunnyP** » 14 Apr 2014 16:51

There is a chap from Gujarat who should be included in that list too - Devang Nanavati. And personally I think they should keep Ravi Shankar Prasad away from tv - he is too robotic and has very little charisma.

Shamlee wrote:
Sumeet wrote:BJP should have following representatives only: N Sitharaman, MJ Akhbar, Meenakshi Lekhi, Piyush Goel, Rudy and the person I would love the most will be Navin Kohli (the man speaks with Authority and has the face and body to back up the commanding voice. I still remember the show where is owned Rahul (AAP guy) and Vishnu Som.)

Prasad, Javredkar, Trivedi, Seshadari Chari should be made to focus there energies elsewhere.
Nalin Kohli is fantastic. I like Smriti Irani as well.

Sunil Alagh who although not a BJP member but a Modi supporter is also fantastic.

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 14 Apr 2014 16:56

Dhananjay wrote: http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... r#p1330599

hnair wrote: There is no printer in the world that does not need a brick-sized manual

Why do they need printers et al? Just have a machine punch the logo that the voter selected in the existing machines, onto a slip that voter carries into the booth with a traceability code. Then the voter verifies if it is the right selection as the machine one. S/he comes out and drops the paper into a box in front of the commandeered-babu who mans the booth. The original machines can be used for quick tallying as is being done now. In case of challenges, one can dump the box' contents and start sifting the paper that has the punch marks.

The machine can be super simple, as it just makes a single pre-defined imprint and am pretty sure the current machines support THAT

(Sounds like the beginning of an Epsongate "billion printers needed"....)

Reminds me of the story where they tell you to put the mosquito on the block marked A and hit it with the block marked B. Perfect idea.

archan · Post by **archan** » 14 Apr 2014 16:56

Adding one more dhoti shiver point..
Cong fudge voter list

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 14 Apr 2014 17:04

Although I'm a skeptic of EVM magic theory, if at all they want to manipulate EVMs they should not have to temper them just before or after the polls (which is impossible to do on mass scale). They are manufactured in netherlands. They can be pre-programmed in such a way that whenever there is close contest between bjp and cong (for that particular machine) it transfers some votes from bjp to cong at the time when they are calculating the votes. It can also be programmed in such a way that it will do it only when mass level voting has happened - basically to not to get caught by the polling agent when they are testing them.

That said, I for one am not ready to listen EVM magic rents by BJP after polls even if that is the reality. They had sufficient information about this possibility from the beginning. They have all the machinery behind them (including man/money power, IB, dynasty insiders etc.) to ensure this doesn't happen. If they fail to beat it then they don't deserve to win.

BTW is there any link where we can see the history of orders placed by EC for EVMs? When was the last they ordered them? Are we still using the same EVMs which were used in 2004 or 2009?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 14 Apr 2014 17:05

NDTV ‏@ndtv 3h

Who took away PM's right to free speech, asks Narendra Modi sarcastically http://www.ndtv.com/elections/article/e ... lly-508304 …

ANI ‏@ANI_news 3h

Many senior media editors tell me that BJP leaders call them up and threaten them for future,one such editor has already resigned-Kejriwal

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 14 Apr 2014 17:06

Btw Netherlands is the stealth EJ country. Many backroom controller's trail runs upto Netherland

dhruvM · Post by **dhruvM** » 14 Apr 2014 17:10

Re EVM tampering dhoti shiver..

I agree with Nageshksji instead of SanjayC guru. It is certainly possible to tamper EVM vote counts (EVM magic was the only reason Chidambaram survived recount) BUT the logistics of it don't scale up. You need to physically access the machines (need bolis for this + the fact that party agents can and do monitor the storage rooms from time of polling till the counting day). This might be possible for a few booths per constituency but to imagine that it happened all over the country in 2004 & 2009, without any party complaining and no sting operations... is a long shot.

Wiki says this is a simple machine patented in 1980

and manufactured by desi BEL. - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_voting_machines

FWIW all my family members in the government, all committed RSSwallahs, say this EVM magic theory is non-sense. We lost 2004 for the cadres were not enthused, and 2009 cause of lohpurush and his leadership or lack thereof. Occams razor

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 14 Apr 2014 17:12

Point no.1: not one single CREDIBLE survey predicted a bjp win in 2009. See csds jan 2009 poll prediction. I already posted it, if gvl rao and cvoter are credible then god help you

Point no.2: will one of the moderators please put an end to this crappy evm discussion on this thread, there is a separate thread for that

Point no.3: i request all evm skeptics to analyze 2004 election results state by state, and for heavens sake just use a timeline google search to see 2009 prepolls predictions of various credible agencies before yelling evm evm for 2 pages. Granted no one gave cong 205, but 175 was expected. If bjp can be expected to reach 230 owing to momentum despite csds saying 200, why cannot cong get that 30 extra bump

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 14 Apr 2014 17:18

OK allright..enough allready with the official dhoti shivering.

EVM discussion closed and election discussion to restart.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 14 Apr 2014 17:20

archan wrote: That will never change, unfortunately. So the easier option is to try and move the elections to a non-summer time frame, while making sure it does not coincide with any major festival.

Difficult. Most of poll officers are govt school teachers. Thry r available in summer easily. Not much work to do in farms as well, so farmers can participate.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 14 Apr 2014 17:45

Not that it matters. CON is doing shoot and scoot wonlee to a new position and keep repeating hoping to confuse the public about corruption. They have directly entered the fray because AAP "BJP==CON" Farzi has lost his credibility.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 14 Apr 2014 17:49

Modi will lose onlee.

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 14 Apr 2014 17:58

pankajs wrote:
ANI ‏@ANI_news 3h

Many senior media editors tell me that BJP leaders call them up and threaten them for future,one such editor has already resigned-Kejriwal

Time to call on farzi's number

tera kya hoga re farzi....

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 14 Apr 2014 18:18

I think mayawati or kejriwal will be next PMs of India.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 14 Apr 2014 18:20

CNN-IBN News ‏@ibnlive 49m

RT @IBNLivePolitics: Parakh demands CBI probe into PM's role in coal scam http://ibnlive.in.com/news/parakh-deman ... 37-64.html …

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 14 Apr 2014 18:27

Atri ji,
Request, please be careful what you state, not in half zest unless you really mean it. Then please explain that for the unwashed.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 14 Apr 2014 18:40

Vijay ‏@centerofright 2h

RT @jitengajaria: Balloon, toffee.... Rahul speeches prove that he is a kid finally

सुरेश नाखुआ ‏@sureshnakhua 1h

Har haath toffee har haath lollypop #Pappu

Subramanian Swamy ‏@Swamy39 1h

Yesterday I sent a letter to the President of India proving that DLF Amit Mehta is a co promoter of companies of Vadra. Uma is right!!

Kanchan Gupta ‏@KanchanGupta 1h

Someone tell Congress their 'decisive' PM Manmohan Singh was on verge of flushing national interest by cutting deal on J& K with Musharraf.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 14 Apr 2014 18:41

Atri wrote:I think mayawati or kejriwal will be next PMs of India.

Could have been possible, however Kejriwal's AAP is not going to win a single seat in India, and there would be other parties which would be having more seats than Mayawati's BSP, so it would be difficult to make the case for a Mayawati-headed Congress-supported Third Front.

More likely scenario is the Dynasty pulling back and Nandan Nilekani taking over Congress's 50-60 strong parliamentary party, with Karnataka and Assam as the only Congress-led govts after 2014.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 14 Apr 2014 18:55

http://5forty3.in/2014/04/the-heartland-analysis/

The numbers are out, stop the shivering, Modi will be the next PM. Fanne ji, please check sample size, to me it looks good. 1893 in UP across 5-6 representative seats of the 10, Bihar 1623 across 3 of the 6 seats, MP 951 across 4 of the 9 seats.

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 14 Apr 2014 18:57

So which are the Congress double digit states in GE 2014. Karnataka, Kerala and Maharashtra for sure. Any others?

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 14 Apr 2014 19:05

muraliravi wrote:http://5forty3.in/2014/04/the-heartland-analysis/

The numbers are out, stop the shivering, Modi will be the next PM. Fanne ji, please check sample size, to me it looks good. 1893 in UP across 5-6 representative seats of the 10, Bihar 1623 across 3 of the 6 seats, MP 951 across 4 of the 9 seats.

Protected content.

Atri ji, please explain what brings you to that conclusion. Your observations are very very sharp.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 14 Apr 2014 19:10

Chandragupta wrote:
muraliravi wrote:http://5forty3.in/2014/04/the-heartland-analysis/

The numbers are out, stop the shivering, Modi will be the next PM. Fanne ji, please check sample size, to me it looks good. 1893 in UP across 5-6 representative seats of the 10, Bihar 1623 across 3 of the 6 seats, MP 951 across 4 of the 9 seats.
Protected content.

Atri ji, please explain what brings you to that conclusion. Your observations are very very sharp.

You have to subscribe sir.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 14 Apr 2014 19:11

Has Kejriwal been slapped again today? I thought I caught a snippet in the news...

Meanwhile, someone with skillz should create a "Slap Kejriwal" game... each slap a talk-bubble comes up with his excuses or related comments, like:

"Why are they doing this to me only"?
"Who are the masterminds"?
"why am i being repeatedly attacked?"
"What do they want?"
"What do they achieve?"
"Is violence an answer to country's problems?"
"let them tell me place n time. I will come there"
"Let them beat me as much as they want..."
"...but will that solve the problems?"
"Please stop"
"wtf"
"I want to go home"
"where's my scarf I'm feeling cold"
"Politics is a fatherless game"

...and so on...

Winner is the fastest slapper/second... to reach the end of the talk-bubbles.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 14 Apr 2014 19:14

Rakshaks, plez plez reach out to your extended families, especially the 70+ chachi, dadi, aunty, etc etc.....They are patient listeners, and can bring a lot of Parivartan.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 14 Apr 2014 19:27

घणी खम्मा भाई, घणी खम्मा... tried to do dilbu like anti-jinx chant.. it failed apparently.. जिसका काम उसीको छाजे और करे तो डंडा बाजे..

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 14 Apr 2014 19:33

http://www.bseindia.com/stock-share-pri ... er/512599/#

Look at the Adani ticker in the last 1 month. Probably the best indicator unless something else happened significantly to the company otherwise. Anyway, should one buy adani stocks if he/she is confident of a BJP win??

Especially look at the volume of trading around april 10 when probably the 1st exit polls reach the satta bazaar.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 14 Apr 2014 19:36

^ If you have any cash lying around and if you're not sure how to use it - close your eyes & buy Adani. This is what somebody who deals in the market told me. It's all market sentiment - all thanks to Kejriwal. In a way, it could be Kejriwal who could be working for Ambani/Adani - link them so much to Modi that when Modi wins, their share prices hit the roof.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 14 Apr 2014 19:38

RajeshA wrote:
Atri wrote:I think mayawati or kejriwal will be next PMs of India.
Could have been possible, however Kejriwal's AAP is not going to win a single seat in India, and there would be other parties which would be having more seats than Mayawati's BSP, so it would be difficult to make the case for a Mayawati-headed Congress-supported Third Front.

More likely scenario is the Dynasty pulling back and Nandan Nilekani taking over Congress's 50-60 strong parliamentary party, with Karnataka and Assam as the only Congress-led govts after 2014.

yes.. that future is very improbable now.. It was a distinct possibility when we were discussing potential ghatotkacha candidates earlier in 2013..

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 14 Apr 2014 19:41

Chandragupta wrote:^ If you have any cash lying around and if you're not sure how to use it - close your eyes & buy Adani. This is what somebody who deals in the market told me. It's all market sentiment - all thanks to Kejriwal. In a way, it could be Kejriwal who could be working for Ambani/Adani - link them so much to Modi that when Modi wins, their share prices hit the roof.

Just crunching the numbers before i finally take that plunge. I will suggest Ambuja also, considering the fact that Namo is planning the most ambitious economically viable/profitable mass housing/infrastructure after 1947.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 14 Apr 2014 19:58

Atri wrote:घणी खम्मा भाई, घणी खम्मा... tried to do dilbu like anti-jinx chant.. it failed apparently.. जिसका काम उसीको छाजे और करे तो डंडा बाजे..

LoL...

Amangalam pratihatamaugaka!

Dilbumia is designated jinxer... Only he can do certain things...

you dont say anything Atri-mahasaya... you have truth serum on your tongue.

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 14 Apr 2014 20:00

Chandragupta wrote:
muraliravi wrote:http://5forty3.in/2014/04/the-heartland-analysis/

The numbers are out, stop the shivering, Modi will be the next PM. Fanne ji, please check sample size, to me it looks good. 1893 in UP across 5-6 representative seats of the 10, Bihar 1623 across 3 of the 6 seats, MP 951 across 4 of the 9 seats.
Protected content.

Atri ji, please explain what brings you to that conclusion. Your observations are very very sharp.

No Atri ji. if you want to know the result without paying any subscription....the tally will be 330 plus. Same way if you want to know, Cong less 100

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 14 Apr 2014 20:03

Can someone tell that 5forty3 guy to fix the Indian map? It is really irritating for some idiots not to learn about simple things.

Here is one link: http://5forty3.in/2014/04/the-11-am-ana ... d-in-race/

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 14 Apr 2014 20:06

Some views/rants/rumblings from me on karnataka scene.

=============

Recently had been to mysore. No where it seemed that there is a election in less than 10 days

Even in bengaluru also there are no open signs that elections are there

. Recently held okkaliga sangha eletions were much much better. So many posters, cutouts etc etc. Even on the okkaligara sangha election day one should have seen the polling booths, so many people, each group canvassing for their candidates. It bought out the nostalgic feelings in me, general/state elections in 90s.

Met some friends of mine in mysore, everyone was saying that bjp will have a tough time in mysore this time. Esp in villages, it seems the common talk is siddaramaiah is our guy, how can we not vote for kai paksa (hand party i.e. congress) now. One more thing which is against bjp in mysore is its candidate. Pratap simha is a actually not a politician at all, though not sure what really inspired him to plunge into electoral politics. Though the only silver lining is his community(okkaliga if am not wrong) may stand behind him as jd(s) is just a "also ran" (what we call 'aaTakkunTu lekkakkila' in kannada) in this elections in mysore.

=============

But imo if there is any seat where bjp literally shot itself in the foot is bidar. This is a seat where bjp has good organisation, but the candidate is so "strong" that leave alone the taluk i doubt if anyone "knows" him in his own locality. If bjp wins here, it is a surest sign of modi wave in karnataka. I am not saying that there is no modi factor in karnataka, but in this LS seat bjp has to bank mainly on modi factor as the candidate does not bring anything to the table(yes, he is veerashaiva if am not wrong but still he does not bring anything onto the table).

In begaluru south, it looks like it really tough fight for anantkumar not because of congress candidate against him but because of congress party. Multiple sources in kannada media have put across the info that: strong message has been passed to every faction in congress that nilkeni is rahul's candidate and he has to win. Need to be seen if every faction really puts in effort for nilkeni (as congress mla's may feel its better to in the good books of the MP whose party looks very much likely to form govt in dilli

).

The most safe seat for bjp in bengaluru was supposed to be bengaluru north, but it seems congress is picking up even there. This weekend a kannada news channel had conducted a opinion poll in bengaluru north seat. As per them the sample size was 1 lakh and congress narrowly bet bjp here(though the congress guy narayanaswamy (formerly in janata dal) is not a bad guy and was formerly a LS member from bengaluru north in 96 elections. Though the seat has undergone a HUGE change from then). One thing which is certainly in favour of bjp(sadananda gowda) here is that congress did not field krishna byregowda.

Also the most unsafe seat in bengaluru for bjp was bengaluru central(hence safe seat for congress), it seems this seat has seen some polarisation between both "secular" and "communals" which may help bjp.

========

Overall bjp may still breach the double digit figures which was not a possibility in any scenario only a few months back. Who knows bjp may surprise everyone on may 16th. Modi for sure has done lot number of rallies in karnataka. Even on sunday he had 2-3 rallies here. He certainly is betting on karnataka a lot more to provide him a big chunk of MPs on his mission 272+.

member_26255 · Post by **member_26255** » 14 Apr 2014 20:25

NDTV opinion poll is up.