Mihaylo wrote:I am revising down my last projections just because I feel we are discounting the possible significant impact of EVM magic and rigging.
Before:
Week 5
Mihaylo: 0 25 50 25 0 0
After
Week 5
Mihaylo: 0 45 40 15 0 0
Ok. Let me play a bit of a devils advocate here. Call it DA, red teaming ... anything you like. So, we wanted GJP style functioning and thinking. Lets attempt it here. Helps to think in a Bayesian way.
This is a qn for everyone. not just mihalyo. So feel free to answer / structure and modify as reqd:
a. How much of the vote rigging do you think will impact the results. will it have a positive (upside) or negative (downside) effect? To whom (by looking at your results, I assume you are looking at vote rigging as being disadvantageous to Modi)
b. How easy does one think its going to be to rig. Will it be in pockets or will it be rampant? [What exactly is the process involved?]
c. How easy is it going to be, if and when the rigging is done, to find the event out -- if EC finds the rigging, surely they wont turn a blind eye? So in a nutsheel, how effective are the EC in finding reports of rigging. Is that scientific [it will be interesting to find that out! Say, if the EC found 80% of the cases of rigging, then we are much better off!]
d. How rampant will rigging be and how will that distribution look like -- will the rigger have a distinctive strategy and rig only a few booths / constituencies or like a blithering idiot attack constituencies of all hues and colors [alternatively put, if the rigger knew that a few are suspect constituencies, will the EC not be aware of it and make alternate measures. Alternate alternatively, if the govt [read UPA] knew that the constituencies were riggable and EC knows about it, will they have deliberately made lesser security arrangements in place? [If that were the case, will the EC not have screamed by now?]
From what I am given to understand and what I know of the process:
reg pt b of mine first. : Rigging is not so easy. I have talked about it to people in the know and have at least an understanding of the process involved. Most machines are clean when they arrive. [I saw a few reports which talked of malfunctioning machines at the factory itself. We will take them up later]. Besides, when the machine comes in, its the duty of the polling officer or his assigns to ensure that the machines work -- they press buttons, vote for different parties, check results etc etc to satisfy themselves, look at it, analyse it and then reset it before polling starts. [I am assuming they will perhaps do it before the volunteers of the parties too? I am not sure if this happens currently. Does anyone know?]
On the day of polling, the votes surely are counted. Volunteers from all parties are around and rigging is quite incredibly difficult? If it takes more than 1 person to rig something, its difficult. But on the day of polling, I am assuming to effectively rig, the entire booth needs to stink up to the high heavens. For successful rigging. Not very easy in an elections as this. [I may be wrong. But one gets the idea]. So, its a likely low probability event. [But I am still fascinated by this point and will like imputs / analyses of the rest if they have a better explanation / answer / rebuttal]
Since pt b makes it a low probability event [per me, atleast], lets attack pt a. Yes, rigging will ideally be disadv modi. but since rigging is quite difficult (I will say a 5-7% probability of overall rigging throughout the country). So, I will put it at a <5% event. [overall]
Pt c: EC has been looking at reports and proactively been advising repolling. --> implies to me that they are doing a fair job. I will say they are atleast taking action on 30% of the cases? [Is that more or less?]. Which given my %s tells me that of the <5%, close to 1.5% gets reported and found. Which brings up the tally of potential rigging that is unfound to be 3.5% [I will round it to 5% for now]
pt d: interesting but I don't have a lot of idea on this. I am assuming the rigger will be a strategist. So, he will rig only select constituencies. Which will those be? My assumptions: they will need to be safe seats of congress where they have worries about winning. perhaps constituencies where big shots of bjp stand, perceived closely fought seats (where margin of support is perceived to be even for 2 parties etc), home bastions / constituencies etc. But however, the EC and the volunteers will be aware of this and will be doubly careful? I would like to think so.
I don't know about the rest. But structuring this way helps me in my thought process atleast and helps to crystallize my thoughts. Whew. Long post!
Update: now that this has been mentioned and it is hopefully read and if someone is in agreement, the most important qn. Will it make you change your forecasts? Are you planning to do it? Lets get that done too if this convinces you. (if it doesn't convince, I am all for hearing the "other "side!)