Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 13 Jul 2014 04:23

These are closely guarded future technologies. No one will share these with us at the R&D stage. The AMCA experience should give us plenty of know how to rapidly make high technology combat UCAV's of equal or higher quality to the AMCA.

I am not looking for any handouts or expect them to share, even if India is willing to pay for them - if it happens that is a different matter. IMHO, Russia is at that stage today with the FGFA effort - where they are unwilling to part with some highly guarded technologies - and that is perfectly fine.

What I am talking about is what happens in a design phase. A design cannot be suggested without technologies to back it up. As a consequence Indian participation in a design should provide India with what is missing in her technical arsenal. India may or may not have similar capabilities or even may not want to go down the same path, but at least an opaque window is opened to some of those thinking.

Better than staying on the sidelines or even worse having someone else design, build a black box for India, India dolling out billions and at the end India is precisely where she was when all the drama started.

The AMCA experience should give us plenty of know how to rapidly make high technology combat UCAV's of equal or higher quality to the AMCA.

Then my most urgent concern, Avinash Chander, just a few days ago:

“We are lagging at a faster and faster pace,” Avinash Chander, head of the department for Defense Research and Development Organisation, a government unit that develops military technology, said this week. “That requires resources commitment as well as a focus on the key areas.”

The problem with "leaning" when-we-do-that, is that it more than likely (90%?) will introduce a "lag". One cannot escape it, unless the other entity remains a constant, in which case one can catch up or at least reduce the distance.

By the time India learns from the AMCA (which is what I used to propose/support), the others will move even further.

There is an exception and that is if India has a goal to achieve and is happy with it. Which I do not think can happen, these "gens" are a moving target and a "5th Gen" will become obsolete within our/your life time.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 13 Jul 2014 04:35

Pagot wrote:Well according to AdA, Rafale will be relevant during 2050ies. (of course a NG version). Take a look on the article in latest avweek, many explanations about eurocanards and their EW, radar etc evolutions.

Does not shed too much light on the Indian Rafale being relevant.

But .................................. can we expect, by 2050ish, that the entire Rafale contract would cost India around $60+ billion? Cycle of life.

Base, in 2016, $20 billion. First upgrade, in 2030, $20 billion (easy). Second upgrade, in 2045, $20 billion (that would be change by then).

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 13 Jul 2014 04:59

NRao wrote:By the time India learns from the AMCA (which is what I used to propose/support), the others will move even further.

There is an exception and that is if India has a goal to achieve and is happy with it. Which I do not think can happen, these "gens" are a moving target and a "5th Gen" will become obsolete within our/your life time.

We have the only option to move forward? now, faster we move forward, the faster we advance.
One can keep complaining about things, and do nothing.. it does not help.

We should bring the LCA baby and mature it up into LCA -3 and twin engine variants etc. unless you walk, you can't feel the road.

member_28476 · Post by **member_28476** » 13 Jul 2014 05:05

NRao wrote:
Pagot wrote:Well according to AdA, Rafale will be relevant during 2050ies. (of course a NG version). Take a look on the article in latest avweek, many explanations about eurocanards and their EW, radar etc evolutions.
Does not shed too much light on the Indian Rafale being relevant.

But .................................. can we expect, by 2050ish, that the entire Rafale contract would cost India around $60+ billion? Cycle of life.

Base, in 2016, $20 billion. First upgrade, in 2030, $20 billion (easy). Second upgrade, in 2045, $20 billion (that would be change by then).

There is never been any "BASE" 20 billions, just a misunderstanding between a russina journalist and Dassault CEO french pronounciation for one (un) and 20 (vingt) are very close.
On the other hand, 20 billions is not a crazy price if india want to implement many indinization stuff, build a local industrial base etc.
All iin all, we have no clue of te real price. We just know the fly waway costs of F3.3' and its CFPH (and this value is also very varaible according to the way you calculate it).
Let's see.
Will be our for a week in Mountains (Alps), see ya all soon!

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 16 Jul 2014 04:20

Wonder why SSwamy is keeping mum over rafale deal these days? Couple of years back he was all fired up against it making serious allegations:

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic ... oY01IOkzdA

Just two days after the dramatic elimination of M-MRCA from contract deal by the Indian Technical Evaluation Committee, Mr Subramaniam Swamy, national president of Janata Party, wrote a letter to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, and alleged that the pre-determined decision to favour the French aircraft Rafale over M-MRCA was the outcome of several conversations between the wife of French President Ms Caria Bruni and the Chairperson of the National Advisory Council Ms Sonia Gandhi, and surprisingly also with two foreign nationals who are the sisters of Sonia Gandhi. He alleged that he had credible proofs and some credible information on the conversation between Ms Caria Bruni and Sonia Gandhi’s sisters, there had been an agreement of the French to pay a hefty bribe for favouring the purchase of French aircraft Rafale. He disclosed that his reliable friends abroad, some of them his former French national students informed him that members of Sonia Gandhi’s family were in St Tropez in southern France. In the company of notorious Qauattrocchis and other family members discussing defence deals and the sequencing/parceling of huge bribes likely to be paid. More so he also wrote that IAF favours the Rafale because there is also a high level back channel Italian connection.

(a)He further reveals these connections as: Ms Sonia Gandhi is an Italian born, with much of her relatives still living in Italy, especially her two sisters who were in conversation with the wife of French president Ms Carla Bruni and Ms Sonia Gandhi.

(b) Subramanian Swamy further called Sonia as “Antonia” as her real Italian name, also stated in her birth certificate. He requested PM to comprehend the risk and understand first who the Sonia is and what of kind of danger she, her family and her friends in Italy holds for Indian security.

(c) He further revealed that Sonia is the name given to her subsequently by her father, Stefano Mano (now deceased) who had been prisoner of war in Russia during World War-II.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 16 Jul 2014 11:03

he did raise the issue again on twitter about this

Sumeet · Post by **Sumeet** » 16 Jul 2014 13:00

India closes in on $20 billion Rafale deal

NEW DELHI: Unruffled by the last-ditch bids being made by countries like the US, UK, Germany and Sweden to wade into the "mother of all defence deals", India is quietly continuing its final negotiations for acquiring 126 French Rafale fighters in the almost $20 billion MMRCA (medium multi-role combat aircraft) project.

Defence ministry sources on Monday said another meeting of a sub-committee of the ongoing CNC (contract negotiation committee), which includes representatives from MoD, IAF, DRDO and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), is slated to take place on July 17-19 in Bangalore with the French companies led by Dassault Aviation.

As reported by TOI last month, the complex negotiations have now finally reached a stage from where they can be wrapped up in the next three months, with over 50% of the final contract as well as the inter-governmental agreement already finalized. "After that, it will be a political call. The approval process will go right up to the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) before the contract can be inked," said a source.

Once the project is finalized, the first 18 jets are to be delivered to IAF within 36-48 months, while the rest 108 will be manufactured by HAL with transfer of technology over the next seven years.

With the final lap is sight, a lot of heat and dust is now being generated by the rivals earlier eliminated from the race after exhaustive technical and commercial evaluations since the MMRCA selection process began way back in August 2007.

Last week, for instance, visiting British foreign secretary William Hague lobbied hard for the Eurofighter Typhoon, which is backed by UK, Germany, Spain and Italy, during his meetings with the Modi government. Germany, too, is learnt to have renewed the push for the Typhoons.

Similarly, the US lobby still harbors the hope that either the F/A-18 `Super Hornet' or the F-16 `Super Viper' can fly back into the MMRCA competition, and it will set the "right tone" for PM Narendra Modi's meeting with President Barack Obama in Washington in September.

But the Indian defence establishment is quite clear there can be "no comebacks" in the ongoing MMRCA project. "There are only two possibilities. One, the deal is inked for the Rafale jets. Conversely, the entire MMRCA process is scrapped, after being in the works for a decade, with a fresh global tender or RFP (request for proposal) being issued," said the source.

The Rafale deal is being attacked on the ground that it will prove to be exorbitant. But the Typhoon, the only other fighter to pass muster during the extensive field trials, had proved to be "much more expensive" than the Rafale on both "direct cost of acquisitions" and "life-cycle costs" in January 2012.

With IAF down to 34 fighter squadrons, when at least 44 are required, IAF has identified the MMRCA project as its "topmost priority" for the Modi government. The indigenous Tejas light combat aircraft, which is yet to receive its final operational clearance despite being in the making for 30 years, cannot fulfill the MMRCA's role. {Ignore this line since its from Rajat Pandit} A MMRCA, for instance, will have three times the range and weapon-load carrying capacity as compared to the Tejas, which will be critical to take on China if required.

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 16 Jul 2014 17:54

I, for one, would like someone to prove that Rafale has thrice the range of the Tejas with equivalent fuel and payload in terms of payload weight to aircraft weight and fuel weight to aircraft weight.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 Jul 2014 21:41

IAF inches closer to the mega fighter jet deal

In a move that is being viewed with much anticipation, starting tomorrow, officials from French firm Dassault Aviation, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and Indian Air Force (IAF) will engage in 48 hours of negotiations in Bangalore over the deal to acquire 126 Rafale fighter jets under the long-standing Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) contract. The conclusion of this round is likely to land the IAF just one step away from concluding the entire set of negotiations and thereby, signing the deal.

A senior Ministry of Defence (MoD) official said, "We expect total closure of negotiations over Transfer of Technology (ToT) from this round. With that done, we will have completed negotiations by sub committees on ToT, offsets and maintenance." He added, "What will remain will be the overall cost and there too, 75 per cent of the work has been completed."

Sources indicated the IAF believes that Contract Negotiation Committee (CNC) could complete its entire gamut of work before December this year, following which the matter will be placed before the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), after consultations with the Finance Ministry. "We are not being ambitious if we say we expect the deal to be signed before the end of this financial year," said a source.

With the phasing out of the MiG fighters and delay in acquisitions, the Indian Air Force's plan to have 42 squadrons by 2022 has taken a hit. Presently, it is down to 34 squadrons from the 39 that it should ideally be holding. Comprising these 34 squadrons are several MiG21s and the IAF ideally wants to avoid giving flying duties to these aircraft for obvious reasons.

On the other hand, the home grown Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas which was being originally seen as a replacement for the ageing MiGs, is yet to acquire its Final Operational Clearance (FOC) for introduction into IAF fleet. To add to the IAF's predicament, it is the MkII version of Tejas that it really wants. "But that version is on the drawing table. Realistically speaking, we have little hope from Tejas," said a source.

Thus, with the MMRCA, the IAF is looking at merely curbing the downfall and retaining its numbers.

Read more at: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/indi ... 72739.html

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 16 Jul 2014 22:07

For IAF, Rafale makes the grade ---- The Hindu Dated 16-July-2014

Russia is fast losing its dominance in Indian skies as the Indian Air Force is sticking to its guns on inducting 127 Rafale fighter jets from France and turning to the domestic military industry to supplement its requirements.

Defence sources told The Hindu that despite an aggressive counter campaign by the British and Americans, the Indian side is firm about wrapping up the Rafale deal. The Rafale has made the grade because it is a safer twin-engine aircraft, which the IAF wants to fly for the next 40 years. Besides it has the teeth to undertake multiple missions including long-range air strikes, facilitated by powerful radar jammers that are part of the plane’s electronic warfare suite.

I think what swing the deal in favour of Rafale was its suite. Note how with SU-30MKI how we did not go with the avionics suite of Russia.

“In the field of aerodynamics, the Russians are unbeatable, but the benefit this imparts to dog fights is now hardly relevant as modern air combat is conducted at long ranges,” the sources observed.

High maintenance costs, resulting, for instance, from fuel guzzling engines, deficiencies in avionics and shortfalls in the durability of airframes, are persuading the IAF to look for alternatives.
....
....
The IAF is also finding the conduct of mid-life upgrades of the Mirage-2000 and the Jaguars more rewarding as the airframes of these planes are proving stronger, making them more reliable and cheaper in the long run.

IAF has been known to push the air frames of its fighters to the edge and then beyond. But Dog fight is not dead. Close Air combat is still something which our planers have to plan for. If Dog Fight was dead F-22 would have lost to F-23, which was allegedly more stealthier and more faster than the F-22.

“We were persuaded to go in for the Rafale partly because there is a genuine transfer of technology element in the deal that can energise domestic aviation industry, especially in the private sector,” the sources said.

Frankly that is a dubious claim. Rafale for all of its attraction remains a 4th or shall we say 4+ gen fighters. Getting ToT for a 4th Gen fighter when the capabilities of 5th gen are more profound is a waste. I wonder how much of Rafale's ToT would we able to carry to our first 5th Gen fighter, i.e. AMCA or even to any of our other 5th Gen initiatives.

SanjayC · Post by **SanjayC** » 16 Jul 2014 22:08

"But that version is on the drawing table. Realistically speaking, we have little hope from Tejas," said a source.

These dudes would work out every way to reject Indian products so that imports are the only hope. The moment Tejas II is ready, they would ask for Tejas III as only that would meet their world-famous requirements which no one else can comprehend.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 17 Jul 2014 01:31

I was reading a piece recently which was taking a candid view of one of the JSF's harshest critics,Pierre Sprey,"both brilliance and bullsh*t",or words to that effect,as he is well known for his yen for light fighters.One of the points convincingly made out was the relevance of the F-15.It may be large,heavy,but has a huge radar-with far greater capability than smaller radars,range,endurance,payload,etc. The same arguments could be used for the MKI.Not too long ago,there was a pic of the Rafale along with an MKI during the recent Indo-French exercises.It was simply dwarfed by the MKI.With BMos,a 200+KM LR AAM ,extra range and the ability to carry a host of weaponry and EW pods,the strike capability of the Super Sukhoi will be superior to the Rafale apart from its air combat capability. The Rafale with a full load of weaponry and ordnance isn't going to be a stealthy bird either.Most importantly,as the programme is a lengthy one,the costs are simply going to escalate,not reduce as is being touted for the JSF as series production for the US services and allies firms up.India is going to be the ONLY customer for the Rafale unlike the Typhoon! So all escalating costs of the tech,etc. will be to India's account.

The concerns about the LCA's progress are genuine.But it isn't an alternative for the MMRCA role,tasked to replace the 250+ MIG-21s still in service.So the media argument is irrelevant.latest reports indicate that the Bisons may serve upto 2025! So there's plenty of time to get the Mk-2 into series production at least by 2020. By then the LCA might show up more touted fighters just as the Bison showed up the F-15 when the first Indo-US exercises were held. The IAF is demanding "a bird in the hand" rather than "anything in the bush".However,given the huge price tag,it would be prudent for the GOI to examine alternatives also evaluated from the cost-effective angle,if only to bring down the exorbitant price of the Rafale.The moment the French see that other birds are beign reviewed,just watch the "sale price" of the Rafale dive !

Kopp on the same,too lengthy to post ,check the link.
http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-2008-04.html

A few quotes.

Perhaps the most foolish of the popular misconceptions of Russian basic technology is that which assumes that the US and EU maintain the technological lead of 1-2 decades held at the end of the Cold War. Alas, nearly two decades later, in a globalised, digitised and networked world, the US retains a decisive lead only in top end stealth technologies, and some aspects of networking and highly integrated systems software. The Russians have closed the gap in most other areas, but importantly, have mastered the difficult embedded software technology so critical for radar and electronic warfare systems, as well as sensor fusion, networking and engine and flight controls. The Russians are working very hard at closing the remaing gap, with the planned PAK-FA fighter to be properly shaped for low observable and very low observable stealth capability.

The latest Russian MiG-35 Fulcrum F and Su-35-1 Flanker E+ both illustrate this in a very convincing manner.

The Su-35-1 Flanker E+ is currently intended to carry a 20 kW hybrid ESA Irbis E radar, which is comparable to the technology in the Rafale, but boasts the largest antenna in any agile fighter, and peak power and range performance claimed to be competitive against the F-22A's APG-77.Given the larger size of Russian radars compared to their US peers, in terms of raw range performance the Russians equal or better all except the F-22A's APG-77.

DID:http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/ind ... kis-05852/

Earlier-model SU-30MK aircraft and crews performed very well at an American Red Flag exercise in 2008, and the RAF’s evident respect for the SU-30 MKIs in the 2007 Indra Dhanush exercise is equally instructive. The Russians were intrigued enough to turn a version with different electronics into their new export standard (SU-30MKA/MKM), and even the Russian VVS has begin buying “SU-30SM” fighters.

An improved set of 42 HAL-built SU-30MKI “Super 30s”. A preliminary order was reportedly signed in 2011, but the final deal waited until December 2012.
The Super 30 represents the next evolution for the SU-30MKI. Upgrades are reported to include a new radar (probably AESA, and likely Phazotron’s Zhuk-AE), improved onboard computers, upgraded electronic warfare systems, and the ability to fire the air-launched version of the Indo-Russian BrahMos supersonic cruise missile.

June 16/14: Display fix. HAL chairman R K Tyagi discusses the issue of SU-30MKI display blanking and mission computer failure (q.v. March 15/14):

“The issue has been addressed by upgrading the software by the Russian side and replacing the mission computer and HUD wherever it was found unservicable during service checks [in India].” He further said that following the software upgrade and other service action taken, no problems concerning the Su-30 fighters has been reported from any IAF base.”

Sources: Defense World, “Software Upgrade Solves IAF Su-30MKI’s Display Problem”.

May 5/14: Astra AAM. An SU-30MKI successfully test-fires an Indian Astra BVRAAM (Beyond Visual Range Air-to-Air Missile), marking the next stage beyond the avionics integration and seeker tests that went on from November 2013 – February 2014. The firing marks a significant milestone for India.

The SU-30MKI will be the 1st fighter integrated with India’s new missile, giving its pilots an indigenous option alongside Russia’s R77 / AA-12 missiles. It will also be integrated with India’s LCA Tejas light fighter, alongside RAFAEL’s Derby. Sources: The Hindu, “Astra successfully test-fired from Sukhoi-30 MKI”.

The IAF was scheduled to raise its 8th SU-30 squadron by December 2012 at Sirsa, close to the Pakistani border, but public sources don’t show that yet. This is part of a larger balancing of India’s force structure. Initial SU-30 MKI squadron deployments had been focused near the Chinese border, but the new deployment will even things out.

A squadron will also reportedly be based at the new airfield in Thanjavur, across from Sri Lanka. The airfield required extensive refurbishment, and was formally opened in May 2013. Its SU-30MKIs will offer India comfortable strike coverage of Sri Lanka, including the major southern port of Hambantota that’s being built with a great deal of Chinese help.

Some notes on the Red Flag exercises where Vishnu Som gave us the truth.:
Dissecting a dogfight: Sukhoi vs USAF at Red Flag 2008
http://in.rbth.com/blogs/2014/03/10/dis ... 33623.html

Among the observers who had front row seats to the dogfights was senior Indian journalist Vishnu Som. According to him, contrary to the picture painted by Fornof, the IAF and its Sukhois more than made a mark during their stint in the United States. “For starters not a single Su-30MKI fighter was shot down in close air combat missions at Mountain Home AFB. In fact, none of the Sukhois were even close to being shot down in the 10-odd one on one sorties which were planned for the first two days of the exercises at Mountain Home. These one on one engagements featured USAF jets such as the F-15 and F-16 in close air engagements against the Su-30MKI. The majority of the kills claimed in these engagements were granted to the IAF with the remainder of these being no-results.”

Som adds by the time the exercises at Mountain Home had matured the IAF had graduated to large formation exercises which featured dozens of jets in the sky. In one of these exercises, the blue forces, of which the IAF was a part, shot down more than 21 of the enemy jets. Most of these `kills’ have been credited to the IAF.

The colonel wrongly assessed the Sukhoi’s rate of turn at 22-23 degrees but he also made the startling revelation that the Raptor’s was 28 degrees. Did he unwittingly reveal classified information? At any rate, the Sukhoi’s rate of turn – with thrust vectoring – is considerably superior at 35 degrees.

It is acknowledged in aviation circles the Flanker is a class above the F-15. In Fornof’s own view a well-flown F-15 can trouble an F-22; so a properly flown Flanker can potentially kill a Raptor in a knife fight.

As Col Fornof himself said about the IAF, “They were extremely professional – they never flew out of the airspace which we were very concerned about. They had zero training rule violations. And that in itself was incredible. We were very impressed and thanked them so much because they were very very professional.”

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 17 Jul 2014 02:14

Garuda feedback:

Air&Cosmos 2412, june 27:

3 pages on Garuda V; excerpts:

- The French detachment included 94 military, among them 14 Rafale crews and only 27 technicians.

- the Commander of the Lorraine squadron [UAE] and IAF group captain Rajat prepared this exercice since December 2013

- In terms of weaponry, the IAF wanted to protect the confidentiality of its air-air missiles. Both parties therefore agreed to use the same air-air, fire and forget, fictional missile. Its range was roughly comparable to Mica. "so, only pilot experience and team tactic make the difference."

- However, both Armée de l'Air and IAF played their conventional air-ground weaponry : bombs equipped with AASM kit for the French side, smooth mk 82 and laser guided munitions for the IAF.

- According to Air Commodore Saju "missions, red against blue, have opposed mixed teams, the goal was to train French and Indian pilots to work together"

- Difference of culture: in the IAF, the air traffic controller is the key player, he conducts the missions and gives the orders of commitments. Conversely, this task is delegated to the pilot who is head of mission in the Adla. "in NATO we work with L16 . therefore the head of mission receives the same information than the controllers while benefiting in addition from a faster information from the sensors of its own aircraft"

- Air Commodore Saju was satisfied "we have improved our methods to conduct operations in distant theaters , it is the advantage of working with pilots and technicians who served in Afghanistan, Mali or Libya "

- A dozen Indian pilots have flown on Rafale B. But the French pilots who have flown on SU-30 had little freedom because of their unfamiliarity with the aircraft.

- According to French pilots: the SU-30 has a previous generation cockpit ergonomics while the Rafale has a Hotas interface. SU-30 has good maneuverability with a good thrust-to-weight ratio and thrust vectoring; "Nevertheless, Rafale , in a larger range of speed, is more maneuverable than SU-30" says Lieutenant-Colonel Lyautey. "However, it would take more time to estimate the performance of the aircraft, i made only 2 close combat against the SU-30. "

- " the Goal of the IAF was not to evaluate the Rafale, this work has already been done," said a pilot. However, the Indians have watched with interest how the Rafale is used. Many observations that could help to define the future employment of the Rafale in the IAF.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 17 Jul 2014 02:18

Farnborough 2014: Thales unveils its new laser designation pod

[...] For the successor to the current Damocles, Thales has developed a new display mode, called "Permanent Vision", which combines the display of an infrared sensor or TV camera with the one of a terrain map file. "We have in some ways mimicked the functioning of the human eye which combines a peripheral vision with a pointed vision," explains Bruno Depardon, responsible for "airborne optronics" products and consultant at Thales Optronics.
Thus, on the screen in the cockpit, the pilot or weapon system officer will have a wide field image with at the center the image seen by the pod and around a skin image coming from a third sensor. "This could be a terrain file downloaded previously, a satellite image, or still an image from another pod like Reco NG" says Bruno Depardon.
With this new display concept, Thales expects to exceed the concepts of sensor resolution. Those of Talios, infrared sensor and TV camera, should nevertheless have resolution amounting in "megapixels".
The Talios pod will be tested in flight in 2016 on a Mirage 2000D. It must be declared operational on French Rafale and Mirage 2000D by 2018.

video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjFADduFzEU

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 17 Jul 2014 13:25

Philip wrote: The concerns about the LCA's progress are genuine.But it isn't an alternative for the MMRCA role,tasked to replace the 250+ MIG-21s still in service.

Nope, LCA is very much the alternative for MMRCA. If it wasn't then the-same-sized | the-same-weight | the same-ranged | grippen wouldn't have been called for MMRCA.

So the media argument is irrelevant.latest reports indicate that the Bisons may serve upto 2025!

Cunning foreign arms agent paid media was continuously harping upto 3 years back that "how due to delay in Tejas program MMRCA was needed" as Tejas neared IOC and FOC this cribbing has stopped, it gives a clear picture of how much media is under control of foreign arms agents.

RKumar · Post by **RKumar** » 17 Jul 2014 14:41

First it was IOC, then it is FOC and next one MK-2 still on drawing board. Some have all their hopes in paid media and corrupt officials. Why media is not putting name to words, there is nothing to hide if their intentions are clear. These people are pushing hard, as they know that MK-1 planes will be start rolling out from production lines from next month.

Don't make fool of yourself, no Rafale deal in possible this financial year as there is no budget for it. Border and infrastructure are the thrust area. Don't expect many major deal, except Chinook, C-xxx or some navy deals.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 18 Jul 2014 22:15

A former service chief's son is supposedly running an import export business out of France per a Chaiwala.

It is not beyond the realm of possibility that this combo may be greasing the wheels to get this deal off the ground.

member_23694 · Post by **member_23694** » 18 Jul 2014 22:35

A former service chief's son is supposedly running an import export business out of France per a Chaiwala.

It is not beyond the realm of possibility that this combo may be greasing the wheels to get this deal off the ground.

You know Sir, it has now become a fashion in our country for hit and run activities without concrete facts. Can we have some factual input as to what is preventing the ramp up of production for Tejas MK.1 , what is preventing the Tejas MK.2 proto rollout ? How can these be speeded up. These will make the IAF stronger

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Indi ... 609015.cms

According to him, synergy and better co-ordination were being promoted among user services, DRDO and production agencies through cluster meetings.

Jaitley also said the general impression that DRDO is lagging behind and that government is not providing enough support "may not be very accurate".

"It is not fair to say that activities of DRDO have been curtailed by paucity of funds," he said.

Either one believes both the highlighted part or neither of them.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 19 Jul 2014 15:47

Today's media reports says that the CAG has pulled up the IAF for decisionmaking timewasting,leading to delays increasing the cost and even the very worth of upgrades to MIG-27s-with an Israeli system which will only be finished by 2016/17,since they're already being phased out and inordinate delays involved in the AN-32 upgrade by the Ukraine.In the case of the AN-32s,the actual number of new engines was not known leading to extra purchases and costs.

Coming back to the Raffy,if the negotiations reg. the tech issues,etc. are going smoothly,earlier reports said that price negotiations had yet to start.This is the key factor in the entire deal.No one doubts that the aircraft is a great bird,but at what cost? The JSF though not in this contest but as a yardstick of affordability,is around $100M when it finally appears.Once serial production starts the price will come down by at least 10% say the manufacturers.It can be benchmarked at around that price (as engine costs still kept confidential by the manufacturer and are extra!),F-18SH at around $60-70M,Gripen around $45-50M,MIG-29/35s from around $35M-40M,and Typhoons even more expensive than the Raffy,which won't be less than around 80+M.That the IAF prefers a twin-engined fighter for the role is well known.$70M is what it reportedly costs us to build from scratch an SU-30MKI.

So ultimately the bottom line will decide whether we will see the Raffy in IA roundels or not.For the sake of some byzantine bargaining,there is no harm in informal discussions with the other contestants what their birds will now approx. cost in case the French do not come down on the extremely high cost of the Raffy.The jury is still out whether it is worth $20B for just 126 aircraft of the 4++ gen,when much cheaper alternatives are available in production,and 5th-gen aircraft are just around the corner in the form of the FGFA and JSF.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 19 Jul 2014 17:45

Informal discussions on what? Complex TOT and collaborations? It appears thats what is the reason for the price rise. Apart from the Mig-29, most of these fighters will become expensive (JSF even more so) if the same level of TOT is required. Is there any report claiming that the cost of the french produced rafale has gone up for the IAF compared to the benchmark cost in the french budgeting? Obviously a new operator cost would be significantly more and include training of a large number of individuals, equipment, logistical costs and weapons etc.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 19 Jul 2014 21:29

So what do we do if we don't have the money? Borrow like a poor farmer and get sucked into a perpetual debt spiral? Our babus are legendary for being able to squeeze blood out of a stone.If I was the DM,I would look very firmly at the cost of the deal and keep other options open.Here are details about price escalation.

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-dn ... ty-1957107

dna exclusive: 100% price escalation on Rafale fighter aircraft to Rs 1.75 lakh crore likely to dent IAF's strike capability

India’s biggest deal of procuring 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) for $18 billion (Rs90,000 crore) has hit rough weather. Two years after French aircraft maker Dassault Aviation bagged the deal for its Rafale fighter jets on account of being the lowest bidder, its cost has now shot up by 100 per cent.

In January 2012, when Rafale was declared the winner, its price was quoted between $60-65 million (Rs373-Rs400 crore). A top defence ministry official said the price of a fighter jet made by Dassault could now cost $120 million (Rs746 crore). The second bidder, Eurofighter, had quoted $80-85 million (Rs497-Rs528 crore).

The price hike would mean that the deal would cost India nothing less than $28-30 billion (Rs1.75 lakh crore-Rs1.86 lakh crore),” said an Indian Air Force (IAF) official, who is privy to discussions of the cost negotiation committee.

The defence ministry headed by AK Antony has developed cold feet after the cost doubled compared to the original estimate. With the general elections just months away, Antony is unsure about the fate of the deal, a defence ministry official said. “As the negotiations continue, the cost is spiralling out of hand. It is a major worry,” he said.

An IAF official said that in 2007, when the tender was floated, the cost of the programme was $12 billion (Rs42,000 crore). When the lowest bidder was declared in January 2012, the cost of the deal shot up to $18 billion (Rs90,000 crore).

Eighteen of the 126 planes will be purchased directly from Dassault, while Hindustan Aeronautics Limited will manufacture the other 108 under a licence, at an upcoming facility in Bangalore.

The IAF, which is fighting its depleting combat strength, was banking on Rafale as this was going to be the force’s leading fighter plane for the next four decades. “With chances of the MMRCA deal getting inked appearing dim, there seems to be no solution to the immediate problem of shrinking squadron numbers as existing aircraft are forced into retirement,” said another IAF official.

The air force is seeking to replace its ageing MiG-21s with a modern fighter and MMRCA fits between India’s high-end Sukhoi-30MKIs and its low-end Tejas LCA lightweight fighter. The IAF has a sanctioned strength of 45 fighter jet squadrons. However, it only has 30 squadrons operational as old aircraft have been retired.

The enormous disparity in comparative costs seems rather strange,as by the prices given,we should've instead picked the cheaper Typhoon! However,the escalation costs have not been contradicted and the last but one report about negotiations said that price negotiations had yet to begin.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 19 Jul 2014 21:41

Here is another more recent report about downsizing of the deal.

http://www.defenseworld.net/news/10754/ ... _Contract_
Will Cost Escalation Down-Size Rafale Jet Contract?
Source : Defenseworld.net News Analysis ~ Dated : Friday, July 4, 2014

India many consider downsizing the Rafale fighter order from 126 to 80 following concerns over cost escalation, Indian media reports.

The DNA newspaper quoted an unnamed IAF officer saying, “Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) has asked France to re-consider the price. Cost escalations and disagreements over production have delayed the contract.”

The report speculated that in the absence of an agreement on price, India my cut down the order to 80 in order to save money and keep the purchase within the originally budgeted amount of US$ 12 billion.

The Indian MoD and Dassault have not reacted to the report. In fact, both sides have officially kept mum over the progress in the negotiations over the last few months while news quoting unnamed Indian officials has been trickling in from time to time, mostly indicating that the delay is over price negotiations. These reports have not been denied either.

The cost of the program was $12 billion when the initial tender was floated.
The price shot up to $18 billion when Dassault won the contract as the lowest bidder in January 2012. The transfer of technology, life cycle costs and creating assembly line might finally cross $20 billion.

The government may find it difficult to justify a nearly 80% price hike for the Rafale jets to the Indian parliament. In the past, the accounting watchdog, the Comptroller and auditor general (CAG) has criticized the government for its fiscal conduct while concluding defense deals.

According to reports, India would have to pay an advance of at least $1.5- 2 billion to Dassault, manufacturer of Rafale jet aircrafts. This will hamper other defense equipment procurements which are waiting in the wings such as purchase of Boeing Apache and Chinook helicopters among others.

Indicating a that money was the problem in the Rafale MMRCA deal, A.K.Antony, former Defense Minister had said in February this year “Major procurement can only be possible in the next financial year.

With 92% of capital budget exhausted, there is no money left for the fiscal year”..

The new government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears to have inherited a depleted government kitty. The Prime Minister seems to be less in favor of imports and more for indigenous production. “We need to give importance to latest technology. Why should we import defense equipment? We must be self-sufficient. Why can’t we sell our defense equipment to other nations?” Mr Modi had questioned while dedicating to the nation the INS Vikramaditya aircraft carrier on June 14.

However, Arun Jaitley, Defense Minister did hint about expediting defense purchases. "The entire resources of the country, notwithstanding various pressures, have to be made available in significant amount for those in defense of the country," he said.

The picture regarding defense procurement is expected to be clear after July 10 when the union budget for fiscal year 2014-15 is presented in parliament.

While the defense forces have asked for a higher allocation, it is unlikely that all their demands would be met. However, a substantial increase in capital outlay would be the clearest indication of one or major defense procurement deals in the offing this fiscal.

If this is true,then "cutting our cloth to suit our coat" seems to have been taken to heart and head by the IAF/MOD.It is exactly what I've been posting for ages,that nations that have eco problems have been cutting down on their purchases (JSF in particular) and extending the life of legacy assets,even buying extra legacy aircraft to keep numbers and capability healthy.

Since the aircraft has been through the "wringer" in years of evaluation and negotiations,the IAF appears to be taking the next best step of getting its bird,but fewer of them. The hope is that kicking the LCA programme handlers even harder in the backside will produce the desired results and the lack of Raffy numbers will be offset eventually with MK-2s. The money saved can be used for the other platforms equally urgently required like Tankers,AEW aircraft apart from the attack helos,Chinooks and even LUHs.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 19 Jul 2014 21:46

Unfortunately, the public sector rules the roost. We still won't have a homegrown engine for the LCA for the next 10 years b/c of lack of incentives and work culture. Green shoots are beginning to show with a move towards privatization. Lets see where it goes.

member_23694 · Post by **member_23694** » 19 Jul 2014 21:50

^^^^^^
^^^^^^^^^^^
Surprisingly both the news link are from the same publication. Do we have some other publication too with same information or are they exclusive news by this publication

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 19 Jul 2014 23:11

The Rafale deal seems to have reached such gigantic proportions financially that it might have become politically unviable. Imagine the the amount of political muscle power it will take to sell a foreign arms deal costing well over 1 lac crore(which I think is a psychological barrier) especially in a time of austerity. Also the fact that the price has actually gone up AFTER the the Rafale has was chosen as L1 will leave it vulnerable to accusations by the opposition.

kit · Post by **kit** » 19 Jul 2014 23:23

If at all the Rafale deal goes through there has to be some strategic military giveaway on part of the french ..not quite unlike the Nuke sub deal with Russia couple with the Vikramaditya !!

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 19 Jul 2014 23:37

^^^^^

I thought the same when the M2K "upgrade" price was announced.

I am betting that the French have validated the entire range of Indian nukes. Especially those meant for CMs.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 19 Jul 2014 23:58

you wish.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 20 Jul 2014 03:44

So what do we do if we don't have the money? Borrow like a poor farmer and get sucked into a perpetual debt spiral? Our babus are legendary for being able to squeeze blood out of a stone.If I was the DM,I would look very firmly at the cost of the deal and keep other options open.Here are details about price escalation

Many options are available if the present deal is unaffordable -

* Downsize the order
* Reduce Transfer of technology to areas where it is not as costly
* Reduce the number of jets licensed produced in India and buy more from the french line that is operational
* Buy the entire 120 Rafale's from the french line. This should cost us around 100 Million Dollars net (With the logistical costs, not just flyaway). The total acquisition cost would then be around 12 Billion dollars.

The Mig-29 or -35 would be the only option for a cheap TOT deal as you are dealing with a government entity in Russia. Companies like Dassaut, Snecma, thales etc will would a value on their IP and R&D. Expect the same from BAE, Lockheed, Boeing or SAAB.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 20 Jul 2014 09:47

Or... Scrap the the Rafale and go for a twin engine LCA MkIII or MCA with only engines imported till we get the Kaveri online.

I am serious. The LCA MkII with increased dimensions and thrust is pretty close to MMRCA standards. Add 01 engine, increase some body size and we can have ready a non stealthy MCA which is Indian. This will be technically more challenging than how I make it sound.

The time lines will get extended of course.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 20 Jul 2014 15:24

brar_w wrote:* Downsize the order
* Reduce Transfer of technology to areas where it is not as costly
* Reduce the number of jets licensed produced in India and buy more from the french line that is operational
* Buy the entire 120 Rafale's from the french line. This should cost us around 100 Million Dollars net (With the logistical costs, not just flyaway). The total acquisition cost would then be around 12 Billion dollars.

- Downsizing the order will only push up the cost further.
- We can reduce the ToT requirements, but as long as the aircraft are being assembled/manufactured domestically, there's only so much that you can save.
- $100M for the Rafale is a lot less than even the French MoD paying for the full package (procurement). With the aircraft about $80-85M flyaway, the procurement cost will be no less than $130M/unit. The figures from the Brazilian competition go past $200M per unit (incl local assembly but excluding long term support).

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 20 Jul 2014 16:05

brar_w wrote: The Mig-29 or -35 would be the only option for a cheap TOT deal as you are dealing with a government entity in Russia.

The problem with migs-russians is the availability, the IAF wanted less manuevering - less capable M2k for MRCA in '99 instead of buying Su-30 was due to french (western) platforms' high availablity less maintenance. That's why 60 strong Baaz force never got expanded.

If top parameter in 643 parameters of IAF are to be guessed I bet high availablity will top the list.

Something like F-15 thing with 15000 hours of body life and 10000 hours engine life before the overhaul thingy. The russians may make more manuevering platforms but never such highly available less maintenance ones.

If Bharatvarsh buys 200 F-15s off the shelf from US, and we go to war after they have been digested properly by IAF I bet these 200 silent eagles will trump 300 mkis role and performance just due to their high availablity by big margin.

Mig 35 was just given a chance so as not to humiliate russkies completely.

Leo.Davidson · Post by **Leo.Davidson** » 21 Jul 2014 22:28

deejay wrote:Or... Scrap the the Rafale and go for a twin engine LCA MkIII or MCA with only engines imported till we get the Kaveri online.

I am serious. The LCA MkII with increased dimensions and thrust is pretty close to MMRCA standards. Add 01 engine, increase some body size and we can have ready a non stealthy MCA which is Indian. This will be technically more challenging than how I make it sound.

The time lines will get extended of course.

GOD protect us from these people... The LCA design is already 20 yrs old and still not operational. It was designed to replace the Mig-21 and might just meet that target in a couple of decades. And these fools want us to surrender our freedom for the cause of indigenisation. There is no short or long term gain here, the LCA is bound to fail. Weaponizing the Hawk might work better.

We need the Rafale. the TOT is essential for enhancing our fleet of aircraft. We know that the Russian do not have the technology, they are a decade behind the west as far as digital/microprocessor/software technology/... technology is concerned. We should not be trying to catch up with them, we need to get past them.

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 21 Jul 2014 23:12

Actually, no.

I'd like to see that 20 billion $ go into the LCA program, and see the quantities that arrive from it.

I'd like to see it spent on creating ab initio RnD to feed into such programs.

RKumar · Post by **RKumar** » 21 Jul 2014 23:16

Leo.Davidson wrote:GOD protect us from these people... The LCA design is already 20 yrs old and still not operational. It was designed to replace the Mig-21 and might just meet that target in a couple of decades. And these fools want us to surrender our freedom for the cause of indigenisation. There is no short or long term gain here, the LCA is bound to fail. Weaponizing the Hawk might work better.

We need the Rafale. the TOT is essential for enhancing our fleet of aircraft. We know that the Russian do not have the technology, they are a decade behind the west as far as digital/microprocessor/software technology/... technology is concerned. We should not be trying to catch up with them, we need to get past them.

I would like you sitting in the Hawk and test pilot in LCA. Then let us find out how long do you survive.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 22 Jul 2014 00:22

Su-27 is from 1969? Su-30 is 1990ish.
Rafale is from 1975ish
F-22 from 1980ish
F-18E/F 2000+
Turkey ................... ancient, prehistoric.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 22 Jul 2014 05:42

Just ck. my earlier post.It appears that any deal is better than none and the Indo-French negotiators are zeroing in onto reduced numbers and perhaps lower cost too. 80 Rafales is a sizeable number that can be offset later on by either LCAs or MIGs if need be.It leaves the IAF with enough money for other key force-multiplying acquisitions like tankers,AEW aircraft,etc.

Leo.Davidson · Post by **Leo.Davidson** » 22 Jul 2014 07:18

Pumping all of the money on the LCA is baffling. I've always compared the LCA to an auto-rickshaw; useful, (the auto-rickshaw being) nifty, economical and you name it. But neither are a hero nor the solution. This LCA plane will not save our skin in war; we'll lose the war because of it. We need a tank, a truck, an SUV, a roadster, ....; we shouldn't be racing with an auto-rickshaw.

Note: Pun intended...

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 22 Jul 2014 07:34

OK, the LCA is a auto-rickshaw. Get that.

What exactly are in the "a tank, a truck, an SUV, a roadster" categories?

Gurneesh · Post by **Gurneesh** » 22 Jul 2014 08:06

Oops..wrong thread...