Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

member_28722 · Post by **member_28722** » 10 Dec 2014 02:32

^^^
I am not sure if the Sukhoi model is applicable to Rafale deal. From the onset this seems to be a different deal
Your 1 & 2 can be done in parallel to a better extent. If it holds then we should see 2 squadrons before turn of decade.

srai · Post by **srai** » 10 Dec 2014 04:47

^^^

Yes. That's why I had the dates between 1 through 4 overlapping since processes for each lot will begin earlier. For 2, HAL would need to build new infrastructure and train manpower. So while the work will begin as soon as contract is signed, assembling even from CKDs can be expected to take longer due to the initial learning curve and you also have to account for the production capacities at Dassault and its partners who will be busy with the first 18 units.

koti · Post by **koti** » 12 Dec 2014 20:51

Canada's take on Rafale, EF and JSF
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... ns-407025/

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 12 Dec 2014 21:07

koti wrote:Canada's take on Rafale, EF and JSF
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... ns-407025/

Four aircraft – the F-35, the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Dassault Rafale and Eurofighter Typhoon – were compared in the report, called the Evaluation of Options for the Replacement of the CF-18 Fighter Fleet.

Each was assessed on its ability to carry out six mission sets including defence of Canadian airspace, responding to an “international event”, such as the Olympics, in Canada or a terrorist attack, peace enforcement, humanitarian disaster relief and state-on-state war fighting.

All aircraft were deemed low-risk candidates to perform each of the missions up to 2030 and beyond, except in fighting another peer nation. In that category, all the aircraft were deemed a higher risk platform beyond 2030 and none distinguished itself.

Canada does not intend to fight state-on-state wars and rated that contingency as highly unlikely. In the state-on-state war fighting mission, the range was from low to significant in the first timeframe and medium to high in the second timeframe “largely due to the higher level of potential threat confronting fighter aircraft in that mission and the evolution of those threats”, the report says.

I think the LCA would be a nice fit for what their needs are.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 12 Dec 2014 21:19

koti wrote:Canada's take on Rafale, EF and JSF
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... ns-407025/

Replied:

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=6203&p=1764005#p1764005

GeorgeWelch · Post by **GeorgeWelch** » 13 Dec 2014 02:32

koti wrote:Canada's take on Rafale, EF and JSF
http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... ns-407025/

Since the affordable Super Hornet is just as good as the overpriced Rafale, the decision is clear

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 13 Dec 2014 03:41

Each was assessed on its ability to carry out six mission sets including defence of Canadian airspace, responding to an “international event”, such as the Olympics, in Canada or a terrorist attack, peace enforcement, humanitarian disaster relief and state-on-state war fighting.

defence of Indian airspace,
responding china and pakistan attacks simultaneously
frequent pakistan incursions and smoking them out of himalayas
frequent cross border terrorism and 2611 attacks
frequent attacks across the nation
belligerent china occupying NE lands
frequent national disasters of epic proportions
frequent nuke capable enemies on the attack mode
non-democratic neighborhood and highly volatile mindsets
.. the list goes on.. just no comparison at all!

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 14 Dec 2014 21:45

Air&Cosmos 2433:

Early studies on the future F4 standard
Development axes could be communications, connectivity, digital fighting, secured networks ...

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img673/2766/nlWBjn.jpg

On defense news from French air force chief of staff :

On the technology front, a future version of the Rafale is expected to show “a major evolution” with high datalink capacity and an active electronically scanned array radar fitted in the skin of the fighter, instead of the present front-facing radar. That new capability is expected in 2020 to 2025 and would allow an active electronic warfare and a very high data rate for communications, he said.

http://www.defensenews.com/article/2014 ... le-Exports

Development for the F3R standard has just begun (it is expected to be commissioned in 2018) that a new major evolution is already in the works with revolutionary capabilities. This should put an end to some posters' speculations over french support and orders for the rafale program. It will also allow the rafale to remain highly competitive against so called "5th generations" wannabes.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 15 Dec 2014 07:53

arthuro wrote: http://www.defensenews.com/article/2014 ... le-Exports

Development for the F3R standard has just begun (it is expected to be commissioned in 2018) that a new major evolution is already in the works with revolutionary capabilities. This should put an end to some posters' speculations over french support and orders for the rafale program. It will also allow the rafale to remain highly competitive against so called "5th generations" wannabes.

French Air Chief Confident on Rafale Exports

France has a good chance of winning export sales for the Dassault Rafale fighter, which is needed to balance the defense budget books, French air chief Gen. Denis Mercier said on Dec. 11.

..................................................

The French government has written an assumed sale of the Rafale to foreign clients into the multiyear budget. The deals are needed to maintain annual production of 11 aircraft from the line near Bordeaux, southwest France.

India and France have agreed to speed up negotiations for a US $12 billion order for 126 Rafales for the south Asian nation, with plans to seal the deal by March 31.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 15 Dec 2014 08:16

I think they have provisioned for X number of exports but in the absence or delay will invest back into the process to make up the capacity. At least that is what I remember reading.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 15 Dec 2014 08:31

126 @ $12 billion.

F3: $4 billion.

F4: $4 billion.

Total, by 2025, $20 billion.

$10 billion for munition.

Sign here ---->

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 16 Dec 2014 16:55

^and file for bankruptcy?

From the indications I see from the last 6 months from GOI conduct I strongly believe that we are not going to purchase Rafale. At least not for IAF and not at this cost. I do not think French will offer any significant reduction of price which may clinch the deal. May be few numbers for Navy to IAC2. The main reason is the cost. I do not see NMs GOI spending money required for a gora maal in this level. LCA-2 may be acquired in large numbers and IAF will be asked to use that the nation can purchase with its limited resources.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 16 Dec 2014 18:23

NRao wrote: $10 billion for munition.

Given the domestic developments, I don't think we'd be buying much munitions

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 16 Dec 2014 19:08

The logic is backwards.

The French need to balance their defense budget. The cost to India is fixed. Up to India as far as the numbers it buys OR does not buy.

Caveat emptor.

What might matter if other nations (like Egypt) decide on purchasing the rafale too.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 16 Dec 2014 19:11

From what I understood, they have provisioned for a small number of exports (1 to 2 years worth of production) failing which they would simply add to their order. Of course balancing the budget would be difficult but in my opinion they would still do it regardless given that its the only fixed wing fast jet program in France, and is pretty much their biggest and most important program.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 16 Dec 2014 19:26

co·nun·drum: /kəˈnəndrəm/: ~~Noun~~ Verb: France cannot afford to let go the expertise they have built nor can they afford the expertise they have built. They need someone else to pay for it all. So, they are juggling their books, until they find the right bakra.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 16 Dec 2014 21:05

^well, france has a behavior model that supersede such analysis. anything that challenges their behavior model will be trashed.. being french is different! they can junk even the most expensive technology rather donate to a poor nation not on the security model, but on the aspect that they think what values should be attributed to their design and what should not.

member_28722 · Post by **member_28722** » 17 Dec 2014 06:11

Yagnasri wrote:^and file for bankruptcy?

From the indications I see from the last 6 months from GOI conduct I strongly believe that we are not going to purchase Rafale. At least not for IAF and not at this cost. I do not think French will offer any significant reduction of price which may clinch the deal. May be few numbers for Navy to IAC2. The main reason is the cost. I do not see NMs GOI spending money required for a gora maal in this level. LCA-2 may be acquired in large numbers and IAF will be asked to use that the nation can purchase with its limited resources.

I am 100% sure that we will not do any partial buying like we did for M2K & Mig29. We will either go with the full number or not at all. There is no need to buy Rafale for Navy, when can buy more Mig29K in case the NLCA suffers from delays.
The only reason where Rafale may be cancelled is if we get some PAKFA early.

member_28722 · Post by **member_28722** » 17 Dec 2014 06:27

Viv S wrote:1. The F-22's upgrades have been long delayed. That hasn't made it any less of a 5th gen aircraft, because it has remained a VLO design from Day 1.
2. The Rafale will still be in service after a decade. How do you propose retrofit VLO capability to it?

The Rafale deliveries will start no earlier than 2018, when every other country on that list will be inducting (not selecting) 5th gen aircraft.

In 2026, we'll have the only major air force in the world still inducting brand new 4.5 gen aircraft [along with Brazil and Pakistan (and possibly Iran)]. Most air forces will phase out their 4th gen fleets by 2040. We'll be operating ours as late as 2065, so your point doesn't stand.

There are two independent issues that you're conflating here - the J-10's design and the overall Chinese aviation industry. The absence of a carrier variant for the J-10 has absolutely zero bearing on its capability as a fighter aircraft. And while SAC did manage to get access to a Su-33 prototype, the actual (and very rigorous) process of navalising the Su-27 platform was carried out by them in-house.

This is just base semantics. It could simply be matter of interpretation. How do you know he wasn't referring to the Emcon concept? The range figures vis a vis the RBE-2 on the other hand are very specific, spells out the relevant target RCS, and leave no room for ambiguity whatsoever.

Getting the source code of the radar (assuming we do get it) still won't change is mediocre power output. While the J-20's radar might not have the SAR resolution or the dexterity of the RBE-2AA, in terms of range it'll beat the Rafale, as will the J-31.

The PAK FA is a still a prototype and they still putting it into production in 2016. Its definitive variant might only come only in 2023 but the interim one is more than a match for the Rafale are air combat.

1. The IAF will face lopsided odds against it and the Rafale doesn't change that equation.
2. You're wrong about the operational costs. 'Double/triple' is complete guesswork on your part.
3. The J-20 and J-31 are both VLO designs whether you like it or not. And they'll both be inducted in far greater numbers than the Rafale.
4. The PRC is behind the RF only in terms of propulsion. It most other respects its caught up with the Russians, and in several respects outpaced them.

_________________________________

Not surprisingly, this year’s CIDEX show saw groups of Russian specialists going through the halls and looking for components that they could source out of China to be utilised in Russian-designed weapon systems. Russian specialists will point out that they are now at a huge disadvantage to the Chinese in two very significant respects.

One is that the commitment by the central government in resources to the defence electronics sector is both sustained and serious. “They can take a field where there is nothing but flat land and wild grass,” said one Russian company representative, “and the next thing you know there is a full-blown factory or design centre there turning out a world-class product.”

The other advantage to China is the unfortunate reality of actuarial tables. Younger scientists and engineers who are needed in Russia to form the next-generation of weapons designers are leaving the nation in droves. A few years ago the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) estimated that 70,000 scientists and specialists from Russian defence institutes and military-industrial complex enterprises had left the country.
_________________________________

5. The number of Rafales delivered to India, four years hence will firmly be in the low single digits.

You're assuming without evidence or basis that the Chinese started AESA development only after the Phalcon sale was blocked by the US. Its widely reported and accepted (incl. by IHS Jane's) that the KJ-200 and KJ-2000 both employ AESAs.

How many MiGs? Hundreds. And there was no hand-holding by HAL for the ADA during the LCA program . The Tejas is a product of sweat and perseverance and not in the least of ToT purchases.

We are obviously not going to get anywhere
According to you cost is the factor and per me cost is a factor
Also the consistent over assumptions of PRC future aviation capabilities is killing any chance to have decent debate on the opposition IAF is expected to face in future.

I don't see Rafale deal being killed unless we have a bonafide guarantee that we will have PAKFA in good numbers in same timeframe with FGFA to follow soon.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 17 Dec 2014 11:32

^^. It is quite possible sir. If 2018 is the time frame that we start to get the Rafale and that too in small numbers then it may make sense to concentrate more on LCA Mk2 and induct them is good numbers as an interim solution in place of MMRCA. I am not sure of that though. The huge savings remaining can be FGMA purchases. As per the reports India putting pressure of Russia for speedy delivery and more contracted period of acquisition etc for FGFA.

As you said if there is a surety that FGFA - even a Russian version is available by 2018 for induction in India it does make sense to take a serious look into that option. some 250 5th gen ACs (126 instead of MMRCA and another 126 original order of FGFA) will be a serious force.

member_28722 · Post by **member_28722** » 18 Dec 2014 01:18

^^
Sir, Per info on the FGFA thread, Russia will get 55 PAKFA by 2020, so if IAF can parallely also get those off the shelf, by similar timeframe with FGFA coming out post 2020, then by all means cancel Rafale
But if we do decide to go for Rafale then go in properly, not with limited numbers for Navy.

GeorgeWelch · Post by **GeorgeWelch** » 20 Dec 2014 19:47

Livefist ‏@livefist 10h10 hours ago
Spent some time with some HAL folks this week here in Bangalore. Level of chagrin & hostility with @Dassault_OnAir is thick. #MMRCA

Livefist ‏@livefist 10h10 hours ago
There's been some epic bickering between Dassault & HAL that hasn't been reported. Details soon on Livefist. #MMRCA

Even after this gets 'resolved', I can't imagine that helps their working relationship.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 21 Dec 2014 12:34

Crash landing!!!

http://www.newindianexpress.com/thesund ... 581039.ece
Rafale Deal Nosedives in Negotiation Combat
By PRADIP R Sagar
Published: 21st Dec 2014

Parrikar has said that the government must stand its ground and not give in during negotiations
In rough weather :Rafale fighter jet

NEW DELHI: The much-awaited multi-billion dollar Rafale combat aircraft deal with France has once again run into rough weather. After negotiations of almost three years, it has now hit a ‘deadlock’ with both India and France refusing to concede to the other’s demands.

When Rafale was declared the lowest bidder in January 2012, all eyes were on the inking of this deal that was touted as the ‘mother of all defence deals’. But the cost negotiation committee set up in February 2012 to work out the modalities for the deal has not reached a conclusion yet.

The newly-appointed Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar and a top official of his ministry are determined to block the deal till the ministry’s demands are accepted by the French side. Though during the recent visit of French defence minister Jean-Yves Le Drian earlier this month Parrikar had assured he would do everything in his power to expedite the deal, he is firm that his ministry’s demands must be accepted first. According to defence ministry officials privy to developments, at a presentation on the Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) programme a fortnight back, Parrikar said that the government must stand its ground and not give in during negotiations. Parrikar’s opinion is seconded by the Joint Secretary and Acquisition Manager (Air) Rajeev Verma, who plays a key role in the deal. Verma, a 1992 UT-cadre IAS officer, has made it clear that till the French side agrees to ministry’s demand, which was specified in the original tender, there will be no progress on the matter. During recent meetings of the negotiations committee, Verma has been virtually hostile towards the deal, say sources.

After cost escalation, the French major Dassault Aviation, which manufactures Rafale fighter jets, has refused to take “full responsibility” for the 108 fighters to be manufactured in India by Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) as per the original tender. Eighteen of the 126 planes will be purchased directly from Dassault, while Hindustan Aeronautics Limited will manufacture the other 108 under a licence, at an upcoming facility in Bangalore. “The ministry is in no hurry to conclude the negotiations despite what people may say. Dassault has to accept commitment mentioned in the RFP (Request for proposal),” a key defence ministry official said on the condition of anonymity.

Another ministry insider said the production sharing agreement with HAL is stuck as well. Furthermore, Dassault is not agreeing to HAL’s demand that it take responsibility for manufacture in India, regardless of French government’s pressure. It is too risky, according to a defence ministry source.

“After cost escalation, now accepting terms and conditions of the original tender have emerged as the key issue to be resolved. The RFP clearly stated that under the transfer of technology agreement, the French will have to fully comply with it and also take full responsibility of Indian manufactured fighter jets,” said a senior defence ministry official. Officials say in 2007, when the tender was floated, the cost of the programme was $12 billion (`42,000 crore). When the lowest bidder was declared in January 2012, the cost of the deal shot up to $18 billion (`90,000 crore). Now with inclusion of transfer of technology, life cycle cost and creating assembly line, the deal has virtually crossed a whopping $20 billion.

The Air Force is seeking to replace its ageing MiG-21s with a modern fighter and MMRCA fits well between India’s high-end Sukhoi-30MKIs and its low-end Tejas LCA lightweight fighter. The IAF has a sanctioned strength of 45 fighter jet squadrons. However, it only has 32 squadrons operational as old aircraft have been retired. M/s Dassault Aviation of France, the Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) of Rafale aircraft, emerged as L-1 bidder for procurement of Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) based on its quotation. Sources also said the Dassault India representatives have repeatedly denied meeting with the ministry officials, including Verma.

Past time to dust off the alternatives.The report quoting sources that the GOI is in "no hurry" must indicate that there have been alternatives considered.With the Russian rouble more attractive now,the price for Russian MIG-29/35s and MKIs should come down.The Rupee's fall too is only makingthe deal get more expensive.With a projected wish for 45 sqds. alternatives must be seriously considered now that Dassault is being stubborn.If HAL can build at home,with 70% indigenous material,MKIs,heavywieght fighters superior to the Rafales in most parameters,and one is sure that the Russians are guaranteeing quality of the same,why is Dassault being so unresponsive? The firang "vultures" must be casting their beady eyes on the scene below and waiting for the blood to spill!

PS: For $20B one would easily get at least 400 MIG-29/35s at even an inflated $50M per aircraft.IN MIG-29Ks were bought for just $32M.With $20B to spread around,there are far better alternatives not just for an MMRCA,but using the saved money for many other programmes.More basic trainers (Pilatus),SU-34 dedicated bombers,LCA-stealth,etc.,etc.

nash · Post by **nash** » 21 Dec 2014 16:54

if above thing go on for say 2-3 years, then french certainly would say good bye to this deal. It means more MKIs(Super sukhoi), which will be now more economical given the situation in Russia, more push to get FGFA in IAF colors and more orders to Mk-I to gap up the numbers.

First symptoms would be ordering 40-50 MKI next year. Interesting time ahead on what French will do if MoD firm on its ground.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 21 Dec 2014 17:02

Or a he'll lot of LCA, with money to spare for AMCA research & development programme.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 21 Dec 2014 18:23

I think Ruskies need to wake up and throw some Su-30MKIs in the mix by offering additional technology transfer, deeper manufacturing and some strategic technology freebies..

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 21 Dec 2014 18:39

I think the article needs to re-calculate the cost. At $15,000 - $18000 per flight hour The rafale over its lifetime i.e 8000 hours times 126 would cost between $15 Billion - $18 Billion to operate i.e The cost of actually operating the jet. As has been previously described the total cost of an aircraft over its lifetimes includes A)The R&D design phase

The procurement Phase C) The O&S phase that the actually cost to run the thing over its 8000 hour life D) Airframe Disposal Cost.

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 21 Dec 2014 22:51

GeorgeWelch wrote:Livefist ‏@livefist 10h10 hours ago
Spent some time with some HAL folks this week here in Bangalore. Level of chagrin & hostility with @Dassault_OnAir is thick. #MMRCA

Livefist ‏@livefist 10h10 hours ago
There's been some epic bickering between Dassault & HAL that hasn't been reported. Details soon on Livefist. #MMRCA

Even after this gets 'resolved', I can't imagine that helps their working relationship.

yes. And this would be perfumed roses with the manufacturer of the F 18, with a highly trustworthy, long standing relationship.

GeorgeWelch · Post by **GeorgeWelch** » 22 Dec 2014 00:42

mahadevbhu wrote:yes. And this would be perfumed roses with the manufacturer of the F 18, with a highly trustworthy, long standing relationship.

My thought is more the problem is with the structure of the MRCA. It tries to do everything and ends up doing nothing. If you need a gap-filler, then just buy a gap-filler. If you need tech-help in a certain area, then buy the help in that area. HAL doesn't need another screwdriver assembly-line project.

And of course, the initial down-select ignored price, which is nonsense. Everything is about tradeoffs and you must be willing to ask how much more a particular feature is worth to you.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 22 Dec 2014 00:52

GeorgeWelch wrote:Livefist ‏@livefist 10h10 hours ago
Spent some time with some HAL folks this week here in Bangalore. Level of chagrin & hostility with @Dassault_OnAir is thick. #MMRCA

Livefist ‏@livefist 10h10 hours ago
There's been some epic bickering between Dassault & HAL that hasn't been reported. Details soon on Livefist. #MMRCA

Even after this gets 'resolved', I can't imagine that helps their working relationship.

The author is Aroor. The drama queen of Indian defence journalism.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 22 Dec 2014 00:55

http://www.newindianexpress.com/thesund ... 581039.ece

“After cost escalation, now accepting terms and conditions of the original tender have emerged as the key issue to be resolved. The RFP clearly stated that under the transfer of technology agreement, the French will have to fully comply with it and also take full responsibility of Indian manufactured fighter jets,” said a senior defence ministry official. Officials say in 2007, when the tender was floated, the cost of the programme was $12 billion (`42,000 crore). When the lowest bidder was declared in January 2012, the cost of the deal shot up to $18 billion (`90,000 crore). Now with inclusion of transfer of technology, life cycle cost and creating assembly line, the deal has virtually crossed a whopping $20 billion.

This puppy is going nowhere

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 22 Dec 2014 07:49

The government simply cannot at this point accept deviations to the original terms, it will get roasted by the CAG, and will be called a scam.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 22 Dec 2014 08:23

I think French simply over played their hand with us. Price is a critical issue for us in the present state of economy ( for the last 3 years) and French failed to take into account the same. I do not see any scope for present GOI under NM agreeing to the price band being reported in the media. May be if IAF presses this matter very hard then it may accept.

We may end up seeing huge LCA Mk2 orders instead.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 22 Dec 2014 08:53

perils of not thinking about investing in kaveri and lca advanced enough.. and most importantly ignore the industry and people, and nation's security from hf24 times. great job for having sucked us babooze! please mark these experiences, and never vote a gov to power that does not think for the nation.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 23 Dec 2014 00:37

Yagnasri wrote:I think French simply over played their hand with us. Price is a critical issue for us in the present state of economy ( for the last 3 years) and French failed to take into account the same. I do not see any scope for present GOI under NM agreeing to the price band being reported in the media. May be if IAF presses this matter very hard then it may accept.

We may end up seeing huge LCA Mk2 orders instead.

Which is a desirable outcome.

Will · Post by **Will** » 23 Dec 2014 00:58

Enter the F-35. Maybe Obama is coming to push it

Having said that Dassault is famous for shooting itself in the foot. The French President was left tearing his hair off during the UAE deal calling Dassault a bunch of "morons" if not in so many words. Remember they came close to being kicked out in the Indian tender even before the trials had started I think due to their pig-headedness.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 23 Dec 2014 02:39

There is no natural death in bijnej!

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 23 Dec 2014 02:40

pandyan wrote:1. what will happen if india decides to no to pursue this deal
2. what will happen if this drags on for a few more years and let it die a natural death :?

The deal has to be signed by March 31 else, it will dies a natural death. I'd bet anything that HAL in fit of pique at Dassault, lobbies (that Srinivasan guy writing to Parrikar re US) for the F-35 especially as Obama is coming.

Any attempt to select any plane that was part of the MMRCA competition, will result in lawsuits. So plan B is full bore on LCA mk2 and/or the F-35.

Anyone know when the first Mk2 is expect for FOC relative to the Rafale arrival?

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 23 Dec 2014 02:41

Dassault seems to revel in ensuring they lose out to the yanks.

Kartik · Post by **Kartik** » 23 Dec 2014 09:35

Karan M wrote: The author is Aroor. The drama queen of Indian defence journalism.

Perfect term for him..seen him as the news anchor on some tv channel..boy does he make me laugh with his "style" on air..