Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 20 Feb 2015 00:48

Other possible pending export for rafale : Quatar (24 to 36 aircrafts and the UAE 60 aircrafts):

Arms exporters eye deals at Idex defence show

[...]
French deals

"Regional instability is generally good for arms sales," said Richard Aboulafia, vice-president of analysis at Teal Group. "That combination of military threats, local wealth, and no locally-built alternatives makes the area the best in the world for arms exporters."

According to latest data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, defence spending in the Middle East rose 4 per cent in real terms in 2013 and 56 per cent between 2004 and 2013, to hit an estimated $150 billion two years ago.
Earlier this month, Egypt agreed to buy 24 Rafale fighter jets from France's Dassault Aviation -- the first foreign order for the aircraft and which could spark a flurry of new orders.

The UAE is in talks to purchase up to 60 Rafales while also weighing options to buy Eurofighter Typhoons from BAE Systems.
"Talks are progressing well with both parties," a UAE defence source told R-euters, declining to elaborate.
France is also in the ‘final stages’ of negotiations to sell up to 36 Rafale warplanes to Qatar, a senior French source said earlier this week.

Elsewhere in the Gulf, the Eurofighter and F-18 are competing for a possible Kuwaiti deal for 28 jets. Oman is also in talks to buy planes.

Regional states are also looking to buy helicopters, tanks, drones and ammunition to beef up security. A number of military deals are expected to be signed during Idex, organisers said.

"If anything, the market is expanding, as wealthy Gulf countries subsidise weapons purchases by militaries in less rich countries. Egypt's Rafale deal is the best illustration of that," said Aboulafia.

http://www.emirates247.com/news/emirate ... 9-1.581480

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 20 Feb 2015 00:49

Qatar, France and Rafale deal (40 credits)
Qatar and France are said to have gone beyond an agreement of principles about a deal for 24 Rafale fighter jets to reach the stage of a first agreement on the deal. The following 398-word report sheds light on the subject and tells what about the agreement, notably on what concerns the aircraft price and the cost of maintenance

http://www.tacticalreport.com/view_news ... _deal/4378

srin · Post by **srin** » 20 Feb 2015 00:57

NRao wrote:^^^^^

That depends on which "bird".

Is it the F3 @ $20+ billion (in which case the MKI does make financial sense, even though they are not the same) or the F2 @ $11-12 billion?

Dassault wasted a LOT of time arguing for MLU being incorporated into the MMRCA and sharing the associated costs. The IAF did not test the F3 (great as it is - granted).

I think this is perfect. Get the F2, rag it till 2035 and toss it out - no need to upgrade it then. Replace all of them with AAMCA.

Rafale Jet Deal: Final Decision Only After March, Says Indian Defence Minister
And it is outright silly to think some deal with ME countries will impact Indian decision.

I thought that only the F3 version has the AESA (and not the F2) and MMRCA mandates AESA as a requirement. So how could Dassault have offered the F2 ?

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 20 Feb 2015 01:22

Arthuro,

I want to ask you a question. Suppose today 5 countries around the world decide to buy say 150-odd Rafales, do you think it will change the decision making process in India? It will certainly allow Dassault to press harder, but trust me this govt. does not give a damn.

All these last 40 odd pages of discussion boils down two points:
1. Dassault stops trying to bend the RFP. You can chose to believe what the Dassault bosses are saying, but they won't decide whether the govt. signs the contract.
2. India has to somehow find the money from somewhere. Right now, it seems really tight. This govt. knows to assert who is boss on the armed forces. There is no way IAF will get these planes if Parrikar says no.

Unless, the above two happen, this deal is not going through. We can discuss for 100 more pages on who is right and who is wrong, but that won't change anything. India will find other ways to fill up squadron strength. The rest of suppliers will not ignore a market as big as India. Dassault will probably lose $80 Bn (20 Bn for 126 first up, 15 Bn for 84 follow-on, and 45 billion in midlife-upgrades). On the other hand, it may find oil-rich countries to buy Rafales. The world will continue spinning.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 20 Feb 2015 01:29

Well summarized.

negi · Post by **negi** » 20 Feb 2015 02:34

Rohit about ORBAT and TOE yes they are very important aspects to look at however there are times when crucial decisions need to be made keeping in mind long term goals and nation's interests for instance if US would have back in the day just gone by TOE and played it safe M1 A Abrmas would not have happened , they never had a backup MBT at that time not in the class of Leo 2 which they were co-developing with the Germans . Same is the case with Dassault Rafale it would not have happened had the French not walked out of much less risky and financially less draining Eurofighter . IAF and other services today are in the same position as the US and French now the question is will it decide to play it safe and buy something from the world market or take that leap of faith and go all in with Tejas MK1 ? I mean seriously what mission or role can any of the remaining Mig-21s and even the floggers in IAF perform which the Tejas MK1 cannot ? IAF needs to show that faith in terms of orders tomorrow if god forbid a war breaks out who takes the guarantee that French will sell Rafale or even spares to us (they did that during Kargil) ?

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 20 Feb 2015 02:44

indranilroy wrote:Arthuro,

I want to ask you a question. Suppose today 5 countries around the world decide to buy say 150-odd Rafales, do you think it will change the decision making process in India? It will certainly allow Dassault to press harder, but trust me this govt. does not give a damn.

All these last 40 odd pages of discussion boils down two points:
1. Dassault stops trying to bend the RFP. You can chose to believe what the Dassault bosses are saying, but they won't decide whether the govt. signs the contract.
2. India has to somehow find the money from somewhere. Right now, it seems really tight. This govt. knows to assert who is boss on the armed forces. There is no way IAF will get these planes if Parrikar says no.

Unless, the above two happen, this deal is not going through. We can discuss for 100 more pages on who is right and who is wrong, but that won't change anything. India will find other ways to fill up squadron strength. The rest of suppliers will not ignore a market as big as India. Dassault will probably lose $80 Bn (20 Bn for 126 first up, 15 Bn for 84 follow-on, and 45 billion in midlife-upgrades). On the other hand, it may find oil-rich countries to buy Rafales. The world will continue spinning.

My posts are here to inform and balance the many rumors and other unnamed source. That's it. I don't know what will be decided in the end, I just know that those who pretend to know have about 50% chance to be proven right or wrong.

On other potential exports you miss the point. You thought that I thought it would give some clout to Dassault in India while this is not my point. It was more an answer to those who believe the program is doomed. Well it is not forever, but we'll see it until at least 2025 and more if other export materializes.

I don't really care of armchair general opinions. I can't answer the dozens of POV expressed here if I don't agree. I just hope to fuel the debate with some inputs.

My modest armchair opinion is known and was often aggressively attacked even though this had little effect

-SU30: it is impressive because it's big but in terms of avionics, ergonomics, situation awarness etc it is obsolete (not even HOTAS for instance). It can be upgraded, but I am skeptical that it will get a fully integrated sensor suite like the F35 or rafale.
-LCA: honorable indigenous effort but its very far from being a serious contender vs established MMRCA competitors. Otherwise it would already compete on exports markets. IAF has no doubts about its capability : an advanced trainer and move on to the mk2.
-FGFA: Nice to have but it will be a niche aircrafts with great BVR abilities. For other roles it will be rather limited for other roles compared to its size & price (Little AtG payload & external fuel). I am also dubious on its stealth performance and the level of avionics integration despite what's advertised.
-AMCA: for now very speculative given LCA & other trainer record and in best cases not available before a very long time.
-I also don't qualify an aircraft 5th gen just because it has a blended fuselage and an internal bay. Anyone can do that. It is the overall package that counts (avionics, weapons etc...)

For those reasons I believe the IAF knows the MMRCA (not necessarily the rafale) is a reasonable choice to get quality with controlled risks as option here above are not satisfying. Of course MMRCA brings its own questions...There is no perfect choice.

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 20 Feb 2015 02:46

Fair enough!

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 20 Feb 2015 05:10

FWIW,

Keeping up squadron strength and getting TOT are mostly mutually exclusive, one or the other is going to suffer if you try and get both as a package, unless all the stars are in perfect alignment!! The Rafale saga is testament to this.

India should have kept the two apart. To keep squadron strength up on an urgent and priority basis it should/should have approached:

Dassault,
Eurofighter,
&
Boeing

for the
Rafale,
Typhoon,
and an India specific version of the F15 respectively.

Depending on the budget, 60-100 aircraft to be bought off the shelf. Deliveries would have been probably completed by now at least as far as Boeing is concerned given their track record on the C17 and deliveries of the F15K to South Korea, I think the South Koreans got their last aircraft 6 years after signing the agreement. Winner decided on price/delivery.

As far as TOT is concerned, IMO, there is no substitute for tinkering around on your own and learning what constitutes intellectual property. For specific areas which India badly needs,such as engine technology, approach somebody like GE and offer them all engine orders including the option of opting for GE engines on all civilian aircraft that are bought by India based airlines as an incentive. Offer civilian airlines tax breaks if they opt for GE engines. It could also be RR, but zero in on a specific engine manufacturer. Similarly get specific tie ups for other areas i.e. radars, avionics etc. IMO that is much easier than trying to get 1 manufacturer to provide everything. Besides the range of companies available for collaboration is much larger e.g. in avionics and radar besides the above 3 countries, Israel is also available. The integration of this 'home understood/manufactured' technology will go into improving the LCA and developing the AMCA.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 20 Feb 2015 05:23

spawning off as many models as we can for R&D will always pay, but not for operational sense. but then, having not addressed the core requirement for so many years does not make sense too. i have no idea about the contractual clause, but what i hear is dassault is asking more money for the lesser product/version. i don't think that is any good for a negotiator who wants to sell and get it going. this is a niche market, and a balanced at that where it is more squarely at the seller's hand because of the technology it posses. but, it loses charm if it either reduces the package or increases the cost.

if the buyer enhances the quality of home grown technology to match that of the seller, then it all boils down to cost-benefit analysis. we are not close on the engine front., and the reason DRDO is trying hard to get a 110kN support/help. q: what if none comes with terms and conditions we set?

nothing better pays better than home grown hard works. one can't keep telling the world that we did x in y cost, and hence we are a cheaper place to make it. it has to be sell-able and at the feature that is competing, along with safety-critical data., a market size that is definitely defined by the work one puts in. sure, but one can't quote a martian pricing for such a product.

there are some huge issues here [more so because, we are not an oil rich country, and also not a technologically dumb buyer].

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 20 Feb 2015 07:58

arthuro wrote:This is for VivS and other supporter of US platforms for MMRCA. Imagine if India decided to go against Pakistan without US permission....Hey Egypt is taking on...ISIS and the US already complains !

^ Rafale Air Display, LAVEX 2006, Libya

French Defense Execs Woo Gaddafi - DEC 2007

Libya renews discussion on Rafale - JAN 2010

_____________________________________________________

Libya strikes showcase French warplane - MAR 2011

French lead call to step up Libya operation - APR 2011

^ Rafale Air Display, Opération Harmattan 2011, Libya

P.S. We can handle Pakistan just fine even without MMRCAs.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 20 Feb 2015 09:00

arthuro wrote: My modest armchair opinion is known and was often aggressively attacked even though this had little effect

-SU30: it is impressive because it's big but in terms of avionics, ergonomics, situation awarness etc it is obsolete (not even HOTAS for instance). It can be upgraded, but I am skeptical that it will get a fully integrated sensor suite like the F35 or rafale.

when you write rubbish like this, its a given you will get responses back, did some french magazine say Su30 has no HOTAS, some french pilot claim after seeing the cockpit and not even operating the avionics.

obsolete in terms of avionics etc... even when the baseline Su-30MKI has capabilities the rafale is yet to get..but will.. one day..

no wonder the rest of the world thinks the french crowd is completely ga-ga when it comes to the rafale and loses all sense of objectivity.
i remember a F/A-18 guy savaging the rafale claims of super spectra and french crowd saying no no its special.

-LCA: honorable indigenous effort but its very far from being a serious contender vs established MMRCA competitors. Otherwise it would already compete on exports markets. IAF has no doubts about its capability : an advanced trainer and move on to the mk2.

sure, sure.. the fact that india does not export weapons platforms is of course not to be considered.. and that the IAF is mostly deploying full up weapons systems on its fighter as versus a trainer doesn't count either..

-FGFA: Nice to have but it will be a niche aircrafts with great BVR abilities. For other roles it will be rather limited for other roles compared to its size & price (Little AtG payload & external fuel). I am also dubious on its stealth performance and the level of avionics integration despite what's advertised.

lol..as if the concept of IFR doesnt exist and the Russians have released any data on what external payloads will be.. of course you are dubious about everything else.. its not french, in which case even the most egregious claims would be acceptable.

rest is your usual stuff, not worth a response.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 20 Feb 2015 09:02

My posts are here to inform and balance the many rumors and other unnamed source.

: ). Funny.

All the dots are now connected.

* no more noise from Dassault about quality of Rafales made in India .................. India is good enough to produce the F2 and was not for the F3 (which comes out in 2018). Both are true
* Recent reports that Rafale was not L1. True. Dassault tried to sell the F3. The cost of F3 could not have been L1
* IAF made noise about the FGFA and reports that they wanted to sabotage the FGFA deal. I bet that is true too. IAF wanted F3 and the only way to get those funds were to trash the FGFA. ?????
....
.....
.....

I do not see any rumors out there. The fact - as I see it - France tried to get India to pay (or share) for the upgrades (to F3) and the IAF wanting teh upgrades opted out of the FGFA to fund the F3. Neither worked.

The sale of Rafale to other nations is a non issue.

Now that the F2 will be bought, there should be enough to buy the FGFA too. The FGFA deal will be signed a month or so after the Rafale deal.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 20 Feb 2015 09:08

Confusion from the chief's statements.Two conflicting reports in diff. papers. One quotes him as saying that "not necessarily" is the Rafale the only MMRCA bird. In another report,he rules out the SU-30 as a replacement for the Rafale,saying that "both are needed"."There is no Plan B" he said! This is at odds with the DM's words earlier,where he said that the MKI could be bought in larger number if the deal fell through. The MKI deal for the last 42 MKIs was officially "$1.6B" for the package! Around just $40M/aircraft. So where does that leave us? In another report,the French say that there will be "no price reduction". Perhaps the Egyptian and Qatari orders have buoyed them up sensing that the deal may fall through now and that it is upto us to take a final call,not them.From which horses' mouth should we deduce the future.The Ides of March will make it all clear.

From all the reading between lines,lines and quotes,the FGFA is alive and kicking,induction hopefully around 2020,the AMCA prog. will begin with the choice of an engine first,the LCA prog. plods on like an Indian Railways "Fast Passenger",and the Rafale deal -from the air chief's categoric statements,will be pushed as hard as poss.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 20 Feb 2015 09:53

NRao, the basic thing is since IAF wants Rafale to hedge the Su-30s and as its a shinier toy than the LWF class LCA, the Rafale crowd has convinced themselves that their super fighter is the best out there & IAF is buying it because of its ultra dooper sooper technology, ergo even the FGFA is bad. Its a bit hilarious really. You would have noticed for a couple of days, the braggadacio was down - that was when Parrikar mentioned more Su-30s are possible, then there were media reports likewise. Now, some PR from Dassault saying everything is fine, the Egypt deal and the swagger is back. LOLZ onlee.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 20 Feb 2015 10:04

Also just to point out how completely stupid the claims of FGFA to have limited A2G capability are - never mind its external carriage, lets look at what it has.

http://aviationweek.com/awin/t-50-detai ... w-air-show

More details of the Sukhoi T-50 stealth fighter emerged at the MAKS air show at Zhukovsky, outside Moscow, last week. It was confirmed that the T-50 is being designed to carry heavy, long-range missiles internally, its engines incorporate built-in features to reduce radar cross-section and infrared signature and a new engine for the aircraft, offering improved supercruise performance, is under development.

The initial service-entry engine for the T-50 is the United Engine Co. 117. It was not shown at MAKS but a UEC engineer confirmed it is very similar to the 117S engine for the Sukhoi Su-35S, that was. Both engines are derived from the AL-31F series used on the Su-27 and other members of the Sukhoi family. In particular, the stealth technology applied to the 117S will be carried over and improved for the 117.

It was also confirmed at MAKS that the T-50 has been designed to carry larger weapons than will fit in the Lockheed Martin F-22 and F-35. Tactical Missiles Corp. showed a video of the T-50 carrying the Kh-58UShE anti-radar missile, a highly modified version of a weapon in service since the 1970s, with folding wings for internal carriage. It has a shorter radome than the original Kh-58, inertial mid-course guidance and a broadband seeker where earlier Kh-58s were fitted with different seekers for different targets.

Also likely to be carried internally by the T-50 is the RVV-BD (long-range air-to-air missile), a modernized version of the Vympel R-37 that was designed for the MiG-31M Foxhound-B but never put into production. Its total external dimensions are within centimeters of the Kh-58UShE with wings folded. It seems likely that the T-50 forward bay has been designed around the minimum-risk RVV-BD, with the Kh-58 being modified to fit the same envelope.

Both weapons are long-range types. The Kh-58UShE is a 1,400-lb., Mach 4 weapon with a range up to 130 nm from a 65,000-ft. launch altitude, and the RVV-BD has a claimed maximum range of 110 nm against a head-on target. This indicates a different operational philosophy from U.S. stealth aircraft, for which a key principle has been to use stealth to permit the use of short-range, low-cost weapons.

Also exhibited here was the T-50's helmet-mounted display (HMD), comprising a module attached to the custom-fitted pilot's helmet and incorporating light sources for the optical head-tracking system. A unique feature is that the HMD has two visors—a seamless outside visor for physical protection, and an inner visor on which binocular, wide-angle symbology can be projected. The Zvezda company exhibited the T-50's ejection seat, the K-36D-5, which incorporates a fully electronic control system and an improved parachute-deployment mechanism that is designed to meet the same “expanded-pilot population” standards as recent Western seats, accommodating pilots weighing 55-125 kg (121-275 lb.).

Of course, the FGFA is not going to be as sophisticated as the Rafale.

Anybody can make a blended platform with internal bays.. (ooops that's why the Rafale doesn't have it? And the Neuron is still trudging along?). These "but the grapes are sour" claims call for some new meme..

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 20 Feb 2015 10:22

In fact I was carefully studying excellent pics of the FGFA/T-50 from material picked up at AE.There are two large internal weapons bays,which appear to be at least 60-70% of the length of the aircraft. The space between the engines is vast. It may also be possible that BMos-M could be carried internally as well,if the ultra-LR AAM meant for the MIG-31 will be carried. But then the Raffy F3/4/5 whatever has secret lasers,rail guns,EMP weaponry that will blast the target from afar!

It may be more prudent to abandon the Rafale and use part of the money saved to accelerate the AMCA which would slot in v.nicely between the LCA and FGFA.

srai · Post by **srai** » 20 Feb 2015 10:39

negi wrote:Rohit about ORBAT and TOE yes they are very important aspects to look at however there are times when crucial decisions need to be made keeping in mind long term goals and nation's interests for instance if US would have back in the day just gone by TOE and played it safe M1 A Abrmas would not have happened , they never had a backup MBT at that time not in the class of Leo 2 which they were co-developing with the Germans . Same is the case with Dassault Rafale it would not have happened had the French not walked out of much less risky and financially less draining Eurofighter . IAF and other services today are in the same position as the US and French now the question is will it decide to play it safe and buy something from the world market or take that leap of faith and go all in with Tejas MK1 ? I mean seriously what mission or role can any of the remaining Mig-21s and even the floggers in IAF perform which the Tejas MK1 cannot ? IAF needs to show that faith in terms of orders tomorrow if god forbid a war breaks out who takes the guarantee that French will sell Rafale or even spares to us (they did that during Kargil) ?

Although this BR page on IAF: Aircraft Fleet Strength hasn't been updated for the last two years, it gives us an idea on how many MiG-21 and 27 squadrons need replacing within the next 3 to 5 years.

5 x MiG-21 M/MF squadrons
2 x MiG-21 Bis squadrons
3 x MiG-21 FL squadrons/units
3.5 x MiG-27 ML squadrons

Total: 13.5 squadrons

Comment: Why only 40 LCA Mk.1 (or 2 squadrons) on order? With or without MMRCA (6 squadrons), more LCA Mk.1 needs to be ordered.

Additional aircrafts that need replacement early 2020s.

6 x MiG-21 Bison squadrons
2 x MiG-27 UPG squadrons

Total: 8 squadrons

Comment: These can be replaced by LCA Mk.2.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 20 Feb 2015 10:43

srai, its not that hard to see through the IAF gameplan. aim is to order second tranche of rafales and skimp on the light fighter class ie LCAs.
inifinite funds, rich country syndrome.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 20 Feb 2015 10:58

I am a well wisher of france but with no manned fighter projects going in europe and scarce funding to upgrade the canard family, do they hope to totally skip the manned VLO game and move to UCAVs alone? on that count also , he US is creating much more products (and tests , and general noise) both in land and naval use.

not seeing what is the plan in europe.

>> accommodating pilots weighing 55-125 kg

55kg I can understand women pilots...but 125kg is a bit of a stretch how anyone can be that big and still pass the fighter pilot fitness tests!

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 20 Feb 2015 11:15

Singha wrote:I am a well wisher of france but with no manned fighter projects going in europe and scarce funding to upgrade the canard family, do they hope to totally skip the manned VLO game and move to UCAVs alone? on that count also , he US is creating much more products (and tests , and general noise) both in land and naval use.

not seeing what is the plan in europe.

find countries like india to fund them no doubt.. meanwhile fly around TDs and PVs ad infinitum

>> accommodating pilots weighing 55-125 kg

55kg I can understand women pilots...but 125kg is a bit of a stretch how anyone can be that big and still pass the fighter pilot fitness tests!

125 kg is light weight kamerad

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 20 Feb 2015 11:36

Karan M wrote:srai, its not that hard to see through the IAF gameplan. aim is to order second tranche of rafales and skimp on the light fighter class ie LCAs. inifinite funds, rich country syndrome.

First, those numbers put up by srai are incorrect. And second, you're looking at the issue of aircraft only from overall numbers perspective. And placing Tejas Mk-1 and Tejas Mk-2 on top of these numbers w/o factoring into account aspects like balance Su-30 induction, production timeline and roll-over timeline.

While the fact of the matter is that more than MMRCA, it is 6 x Su-30 MKI and 2 x Tejas Mk-1 which will fill out the immediate requirement. And 4 x Tejas Mk-2 and 6 x MMRCA fill out the second phase of squadron roll-over.

(number of balance Su-30 MKI to be inducted may be lesser; there is some confusion on number of squadrons raised. But the ratio should hold true, more or less)

If you were to look closely at squadron roll-over numbers, it is the dominance of Su-30 MKI with 14 squadron worth of planes which has actually replaced or will replace the bulk of Mig-21, Mig-23 and Mig-27 in Indian inventory. Tejas Mk-1/Mk-2 and MMRCA will together account for balance 50%.

But my calculation shows that above numbers hold true only for 38 squadron worth of a/c. To reach planned strength of 42 squadron by 2027, three things are likely to happen:

- follow on order for Rafale.
- follow on order for Tejas Mk-2.
- Russians surprise us and we see a squadron or two of FGFA by this period.

The second wave of large scale transition in 2028 and 2040 period will led by FGFA and AMCA.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

When we talk about IAF ordering more of Tejas Mk-1, we need to also factor in where it will fit in!

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 20 Feb 2015 11:39

On the 125 Kg thing , do the G Suites of Pilot also carry some kind of Emergency Survival kit and chutes etc ?

Texafr · Post by **Texafr** » 20 Feb 2015 16:10

NRao wrote:

*India is good enough to produce the F2 and was not for the F3 (which comes out in 2018).
* Dassault tried to sell the F3. The cost of F3 could not have been L1
*France tried to get India to pay (or share) for the upgrades (to F3)

Now that the F2 will be bought

You are badly informed about the Rafale. In consequence, your never-ending speculations are neither accurate, nor interesting.

The Rafale F2 disappeared from the picture in 2008-2009. It was never tested or offered to the Indian Air Force.
Dassault's facilities have been producing Rafale "F3.x" for France since 2009. Year 2015, all the Rafales in active service are Rafales F3.3', they are progressively upgraded to the F3.4+ standard.
Dassault's prototypes are always ahead of the production curve and the Rafales in active service. The Rafales tested by foreign air forces belong to Dassault.
Dassault is currently busy with the development of the F3-R standard (development and upgrades already paid for by France) which will be completed in 2018. F3-R will become the production standard that year.
Regardless of India, the Rafale already has several ongoing upgrade programs paid for. If the MMRCA is completed, IAF's Rafales will be a mix between the "insert year" production and the IAF requirements.

You can forget your fixation with the F2, Dassault and partners will never produce this standard again. It would make no sense to have two vastly different standards (softwares, microprocessors, electronics components, parts) on the production line at the same time (rationalization of costs).

srin wrote: I thought that only the F3 version has the AESA (and not the F2) and MMRCA mandates AESA as a requirement. So how could Dassault have offered the F2 ?

Sir, you are correct. The AESA radar and the F3.x standard go hand in hand.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 20 Feb 2015 17:02

Texafr wrote:The Rafale F2 disappeared from the picture in 2008-2009. It was never tested or offered to the Indian Air Force.

The MMRCA technical evaluations ended in 2008. So it was the F2 that was tested by the IAF. Or rather an F2 'plus' bridge to the F3. The aircraft that Dassault intends to deliver on the other hand is the F3R. The financial bids deposited with the MoD have lapsed, and Dassault has definitely revised its offer both to factor in costs associated with the new variant as well as inflation but without the constraints of competition.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 20 Feb 2015 17:58

HAL will take full responsibility for Rafales’

Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) chairman T Suvarna Raju on Thursday said that HAL is willing to take full responsibility for the Rafales that it manufactures if the contract with French Defence major Dassault is signed. The comment assumes significance in the backdrop of a disagreement between India and Dassault over who would take guarantee for the Rafale fighter jets.
The Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft project involves buying of 18 aircraft from Dassault in flyaway condition, while the rest are to be manufactured by HAL under license.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 20 Feb 2015 19:31

How much does HAL stand to lose if the deal gets cancelled? At least $5 billion in revenues would be my guess, with another $5 billion split by BEL, Reliance and others. (Roughly speaking Dassault accounts for a third of the Rafale production by value, Thales another third with Safran and others splitting the remainder. One can make a educated guess from that.)

Maybe I'm reading this wrong but does anyone else sense a touch of desperation showing among those involved in the deal (which includes HAL & Dassault)?

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 20 Feb 2015 21:11

You can add IAF. The Mindef review expected soon is the final step for this deal. Every stakeholders is a bit nervous waiting for the final décision.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 20 Feb 2015 21:19

arthuro wrote:You can add IAF. The Mindef review expected soon is the final step for this deal. Every stakeholders is a bit nervous waiting for the final décision.

Doesn't end at the MoD. The Ministry of Finance is going to have its say, since the budget will have to be reapproved (since the $11bn allotted has been... exceeded). The PMO/CCS will get its say as well (deal is less than satisfactory from the 'Make in India' perspective with a substantial part consisting of SKD/CKD assembly). And all of the above actors will have to keep in mind that somewhere down the line the CAG will get the opportunity to make all of them miserable.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 20 Feb 2015 21:35

Texafr wrote:
NRao wrote:

*India is good enough to produce the F2 and was not for the F3 (which comes out in 2018).
* Dassault tried to sell the F3. The cost of F3 could not have been L1
*France tried to get India to pay (or share) for the upgrades (to F3)

Now that the F2 will be bought
You are badly informed about the Rafale. In consequence, your never-ending speculations are neither accurate, nor interesting.

The Rafale F2 disappeared from the picture in 2008-2009. It was never tested or offered to the Indian Air Force.
Dassault's facilities have been producing Rafale "F3.x" for France since 2009. Year 2015, all the Rafales in active service are Rafales F3.3', they are progressively upgraded to the F3.4+ standard.
Dassault's prototypes are always ahead of the production curve and the Rafales in active service. The Rafales tested by foreign air forces belong to Dassault.
Dassault is currently busy with the development of the F3-R standard (development and upgrades already paid for by France) which will be completed in 2018. F3-R will become the production standard that year.
Regardless of India, the Rafale already has several ongoing upgrade programs paid for. If the MMRCA is completed, IAF's Rafales will be a mix between the "insert year" production and the IAF requirements.

The number following "F" has no bearing on my argument - it could have been F1.

And, none of your arguments talk about the price - which is what I am arguing about. Why did it escalte from $11 billion to $20 and perhaps now back to 11? Any idea?

You can forget your fixation with the F2, Dassault and partners will never produce this standard again. It would make no sense to have two vastly different standards (softwares, microprocessors, electronics components, parts) on the production line at the same time (rationalization of costs).

Great news.

India - as stated - will pay for what the IAF tested. IF what the IAF tested is no longer in production, then India pays for what Dassault can produce ........... which is the F3.x (as you stated). IF that F3.x is better than what India tested, nice deal.

srin wrote: I thought that only the F3 version has the AESA (and not the F2) and MMRCA mandates AESA as a requirement. So how could Dassault have offered the F2 ?
Sir, you are correct. The AESA radar and the F3.x standard go hand in hand.

As usual FUD.

Seems to be a Dassault trait. FUD + expense. Granted the product is great.

Dassault ups the ante with full technology transfer for Rafale news
05 November 2008

Paris: The French government has cleared full technology transfer for Dassault's Rafale combat jet, one of the six contenders for the Indian Air Force's (IAF) 126 multi-role medium range combat aircraft (MMRCA) tender, which is estimated to be eventually worth atleast $11 billion over its lifetime.

Briefing Indian media representatives at its Champs-Elyses, Paris, headquarters Dassault Aviation's senior vice president for military sales, JPHP Chabriol, said, ''When we talk about technology transfer, we mean full technology transfer and not in bits and pieces.''

Rafale''The way we work, we first have to obtain clearance of the government before putting in our proposal. If we win the order, we can begin work on transferring technology from day one - unlike our competition,'' he added.

Critically for India, the transfer-of-technology (T-o-T) would include that of a state-of-the-art Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar that would provide Rafale the ability to also function as a close battlefield support airborne warning and control system (AWACS), apart from its designed function as a fighter. The AESA radar T-o-T would also include transfer of software source code, according to Chabriol.

This is a matter of great concern for India, or any country, that seeks T-o-T of sensitive equipment. Lack of access to the source code would not allow a country to re-programme a radar or any sensitive equipment should it so wish.

Defence analysts point out that this could seriously compromise India's national security as the IAF would not be able to re-programme the radar should it wish to at a later stage.

The AESA radar on offer from Dassault is still under development by French aerospace giant Thales and is expected to be integrated with the aircraft by 2012. This is roughly the time the selected aircraft from the MMRCA tender may be expected to enter IAF service.

I bet they will now transfer code from that early version. Boy at least India gets wheels for the $11 billion. Nice

India should dump teh MMRCA and have Dassault build 80 Rafales to spec and be done with.

vaibhav.n · Post by **vaibhav.n** » 20 Feb 2015 22:11

Viv S wrote:somewhere down the line the CAG will get the opportunity to make all of them miserable.

The current CAG was Joint Secy (Air) and later Def Secy through this affair, all very platonic onlee. They have him by his testic...erm you get the idea.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 20 Feb 2015 22:19

vaibhav.n wrote:
Viv S wrote:somewhere down the line the CAG will get the opportunity to make all of them miserable.
The current CAG was Joint Secy (Air) and later Def Secy through this affair, all very platonic onlee. They have him by his testic...erm you get the idea.

(He'll be retired by 2017 though, so the MMRCA/Rafale report will most likely be done under his successor.)

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 21 Feb 2015 14:48

Viv S wrote:Doesn't end at the MoD.

It ends at MoDi

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 22 Feb 2015 02:50

AERO INDIA: HAL defends ability to produce Rafale fighter

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 22 Feb 2015 02:57

Rubber meets the road?

For *all* those that made *all* that noise about Rafale the best, CAS lovin' it, yada, yada, yada, ......................

Aero India 2015: Indian Air Force chief adds to MMRCA confusion

"It is important we have an MMRCA. I would not say Rafale, but we need to have it [MMRCA] in the quickest possible time," the IAF chief said.

I think the price of the Rafale just fell another $1 billion.

$11 billion for 126 Rafales? What was it F3.x?

And, oh .................... almost forgot:

The air chief's remarks, however, further fuelled speculation that the deal for 126 Rafales to meet the MMRCA requirement could well be on the rocks.

ACM Raha said that three of four subcommittees negotiating the Rafale tender had completed their tasks of determining offsets, maintenance support and technology transfer to HAL to licence produce Rafales.

The fourth, the Cost Negotiation Committee (CNC), was still in consultation with Dassault and was yet to submit its report to the Ministry of Defence (MoD), he said.

The stalemate over the CNC's deliberations concerns the escalated contract price - which has reportedly doubled to around USD20 billion - and the standoff between Dassault and the MoD over the licensed production of the fighters.

F1, F2, F3.x, whatever. The fixation is over the price.

Heal.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 22 Feb 2015 03:02

I'm glad these UPA jokers are out. We finally brought in people who can negotiate indian ishtyle. This deal is just too big for the French to back out of. I have a feeling they're going to cave.

devesh · Post by **devesh** » 22 Feb 2015 06:57

They might not. I have a feeling both Ind and France are playing a cat-and-mouse game calling each others' bluffs.

Fundamentally, there might be 3rd parties who are whispering selective "intel" to both sides to call the bluff. Either way, this might turn out to be a nasty exercise in relations between India and France.

If Rafale doesn't happen, what are the options? Su-30 has already been heard as an alternative. But Chief Raha is clearly saying that Su-30 cannot be the MRCA. I think there might "emergency meetings" that will probably involve NaMo directly if the Rafale deal falls through. Then the Civ/Mil leadership will have to sit and decide what to do next: there is no way they can restart the process and spend another decade twiddling thumbs. In that scenario, they might decide to do the unthinkable: Govt-to-Govt deal for F-18.

this is pure speculation, on my part. But I'm wondering what is the alternative if Rafale is too expensive, as I'm sure many others are as well.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 22 Feb 2015 09:23

well, there are ups and downs after parrikar took over, and i am all seeing red on modi's face that rafale folks would not budge too much on 'make in india' [at least that is what i get a feel after aero india 2015].. modi never was happy with full blow imports, and wants make in india happen. 70% import is something he does not want to see. that is a strong stand, and i don;'t think france can get past that line so easily.

now, comes the cost.. and recent issues regarding various aspects of who are the likely screw drivers.. now that leaves a big question on should we be actually doing screw drivers or look at some deep manufacturing capabilities. given some huge bucks, we can establish advanced facilities for LCA mk2, and further on to AMCA, that might equal Rafale in all terms.

Rafale would come, if they France agrees in make in india, and accepts what modi might want them to do.. when visits paris, a fine oppty for sealing the deal or get embarrassing to note, Fr would not bow down on their heavy handed technology and egoistic projections of that is the best thing for India. [capabilities and nothing else India has better ]

I'd see a big win, if France wuld come down on their cost, make in India, and consider some reasonable ToT per RFP, and not to back off on responsibilities. we can't be making deals if two hands don;'t shake

Sumeet · Post by **Sumeet** » 22 Feb 2015 11:33

France in new bid to nail fighter jet deal with India

France's defence minister will visit New Delhi this week in a fresh bid to nail a troubled deal to sell 126 Rafale fighter jets which has been snagged for three years and now faces new questions about its cost.

Jean-Yves Le Drian will meet his counterpart Manohar Parrikar and other officials on Monday and Tuesday to prevent the sale's collapse ahead of an upcoming visit to Paris by India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

French company Dassault Aviation won the right in January 2012 to enter exclusive negotiations with India to supply 126 Rafale fighters, with experts saying a final deal could be worth $12 billion.

The idea is for Dassault to supply 18 of the twin-engine fighters later this year while the remaining 108 would be made by state-run Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd under technology transfer agreements with India.

But negotiations have proved fraught, both under Modi's government and its Congress predecessor, while a committee which is looking into the deal has reportedly found that it was not the cheapest option.

France's defence ministry has said the visit will give the governments a chance to discuss "international affairs and defence industry issues", but there is little doubt Rafale will dominate proceedings.

Le Drian's visit comes barely two months after he also came to India for talks with Parrikar when they both agreed to push on with negotiations.

Modi's right-wing government, which won power in elections last May, has been blowing hot and cold about the progress of discussions.

A defence ministry spokesman said during Le Drian's visit in December that outstanding differences "would be resolved in a fast-track manner".

- Doubts over costs -

But the government has also commissioned a report about the project costs, adding yet more uncertainty.

Speaking at an air show in Bangalore last week, Parrikar said he expected the contract negotiation committee (CNC) to submit its report within weeks.

"I have asked the CNC to speed up the process of completion of the report for us to take a decision on the acquisition of Rafale," he told reporters.

India's Business Standard newspaper reported earlier this month that the committee had found the Rafale proposal was in fact more expensive than a rival one by Eurofighter for its Typhoon jets.

The paper quoted defence ministry sources as saying the Rafale deal was "effectively dead" although the Indian top brass is still publicly backing it.

If the deal were to collapse, it would be a huge embarrassment for the French government, which is preparing to welcome Modi for his first visit to Europe as premier in April.

Dassault was able to celebrate the signing of a purchase agreement with Egypt last Monday for 24 Rafales, the first foreign sale of the fighters.

While the company's chief executive Eric Trappier has acknowledged the Indian negotiations have taken longer than expected, he told France's Les Echos financial daily recently that "we are not particularly worried".

One of the main sticking points has been over who should carry the can for any problems with the 108 planes that would be made in India, with the government in Delhi wanting guarantees from Dassault.

Dassault however has baulked at the idea of taking responsibility for the larger Indian-made batch of fighters.

India, which has long been the world's largest buyer of defence equipment, is in the midst of a multi-billion-dollar upgrade of ageing hardware, and recently lifted a cap on foreign investment in defence.

While his government has pledged to push forward with purchases which stalled under Congress, Modi wants to end India's status as the world's number one defence importer and to have 70 percent of hardware manufactured domestically by the turn of the decade.

With clouds hanging over the Rafale deal, there have been reports India could instead buy more Russian-made Sukhoi jets.

But the head of the Indian air force said that the Sukhois had different capabilities and could not be seen as a like-for-like replacement, as he called for the Rafale deal to be expedited.

"Rafale has been selected as L1 (lowest bidder)," Arup Raha said in Bangalore.

"It is important that we have the MMRCA (Rafale) and we need to have it in the quickest possible time".

Raha insisted no alternative plan was being considered at the moment but did not rule one out for the future.

"No, we don't have a Plan B as of now. We are only working on Plan A," he said.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 22 Feb 2015 13:04

Modi has not given any major deal to USA or Japan even though he visited them.