Indian investments thread

kenop · Post by **kenop** » 12 Mar 2015 02:47

Personally I would stay away (for long term, trading is another matter) from Suzlon having bought it once 10 years ago for moderate loss, which is not the reason.
# I had some personal interactions (after having bought and sold, ref above) with one manager and my impression was that the promoters were in a rush to get rich quick.
# They had got into this sector which in my view suffers (more prominently now) from some inherent problems like paucity of sites in India. The best locations are taken already leaving lesser capacity for growth
# This sector has another inherent issue related to its dependence on govt subsidies which kept it afloat so long. Withdraw support/subsidies today and it is sure to collapse.
# Tax concessions for individuals/corporates made a lot of people rush into this sector 10 years ago (set up wind farms etc). They all got tax benefits, balanced their accounts and some got out while it was good time (I suspect that is what the promoters did too at one level)
# They bought a couple of companies in Europe mainly to benefit from the R&D strengths and at least one was sold within a 3-4 y time period. Their internal R&D/innovation efforts are below par (had another level of interaction with some people and got this strong impression)
All unscientific thought process onlee.

kenop · Post by **kenop** » 12 Mar 2015 02:58

I am thinking of doing some short term trading pretty soon.
During the rush of pre-2003 I lost almost all my investments (shares bought at 1000 levels went down as low as 20 !) and have not been quite active since.
I have ICICI account which I'll be using after a *substantial* gap. Better options for trading are welcome. As I am willing to even do day trading (if my trading system gives me confidence) better means uninterrupted/hassle-free activity.
Wishing luck myself. I'll do some activity over next 2-3 month with a very small amount that I plan to raise by selling two IT scrips I hold.

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 12 Mar 2015 13:57

kenop wrote:Personally I would stay away (for long term, trading is another matter) from Suzlon having bought it once 10 years ago for moderate loss, which is not the reason.
# I had some personal interactions (after having bought and sold, ref above) with one manager and my impression was that the promoters were in a rush to get rich quick.
# They had got into this sector which in my view suffers (more prominently now) from some inherent problems like paucity of sites in India. The best locations are taken already leaving lesser capacity for growth
# This sector has another inherent issue related to its dependence on govt subsidies which kept it afloat so long. Withdraw support/subsidies today and it is sure to collapse.
# Tax concessions for individuals/corporates made a lot of people rush into this sector 10 years ago (set up wind farms etc). They all got tax benefits, balanced their accounts and some got out while it was good time (I suspect that is what the promoters did too at one level)
# They bought a couple of companies in Europe mainly to benefit from the R&D strengths and at least one was sold within a 3-4 y time period. Their internal R&D/innovation efforts are below par (had another level of interaction with some people and got this strong impression)
All unscientific thought process onlee.

So many nice details about the company. Thanks for providing them.

This same company's share soon after their IPO some 10 years or so before - were skyrocketing and always floating around with a high PE. Then economic issues started happening worldwide in 2008 and since then this company's share has always been going down and hasnt recovered since then. Poor banks that lent this company so much money are left holding a very leaky bucket.

My biggest cry about Wind Energy based Power is that - it is not available throughout the year, unlike other power sources including Solar Energy. In TN for example, the State EB gets an average of 4000 MW odd power from wind sources during the period from MAY until OCTOBER and there is absolutely no load shedding or power supply issues during this period of abundant wind energy. But at other times of the year when the wind doesn't flow much across the areas that are filled with windmills - the wind based power supply drops roughly to around 50 MW or so !!!. Isn't that ridiculous even though its clean energy ?.

Numerous companies and celebrities used to invest in windmills just to offset some of their profits against tax concessions associated with setting up windmills and also for having a separate source of power (even though they would mostly be able to feed the power into the EB's grid only).

Solar Energy and related technologies appear far more acceptable than wind energy sources - for their consistent power supply potential.

Vriksh · Post by **Vriksh** » 14 Mar 2015 11:05

Airbourne Wind Energy Startup anyone?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airborne_wind_turbine

kenop · Post by **kenop** » 14 Mar 2015 18:14

Vriksh wrote:Airbourne Wind Energy Startup anyone?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airborne_wind_turbine

Investors are still VERY VERY cautious. A couple of self-funded projects did attempt but their concepts were inherently bad and hence no fun putting more money in them. The star of the field Makani too is technically not so strong but they did get google interested in ~2006. At the end of the day they have spent $20m or so but not made much headway. Their marketing material is good though and makes you think that the sky will be full of their machines next year.
One self-funded project got merged in Makani 2-3 years ago.
Just of a couple of airborne wind energy concepts have real potential but they have not got ANY funding yet. Another 15-20 years and other options like fuel cells/thorium may be there making such projects useless

Vriksh · Post by **Vriksh** » 15 Mar 2015 12:33

kenop, what you say is very interesting. Can you point out why such concepts will not be successful. I find that in the 2000m+ Altitude the winds are fairly constant in direction and velocity. The technical problem of being able to pipe down the power is to be solved.

My Basic reading into the philosophies behind airborne wind power is (correct me if I am wrong):
Makani is generating electrical power on the kite and conducting it down the kite string?
Kitegen driving a ground shaft by a computer controlled system of flying kites and transmitting mechanical power down the kite string. I am assuming that these are concepts that use line tension differences to drive the ground shaft and generators

I am wondering why using tether cable twist (cable representing a long thin shaft) has not been looked into as power transmission? tether weight/length issues perhaps

kenop · Post by **kenop** » 15 Mar 2015 16:57

Vriksh wrote:Can you point out why such concepts will not be successful

Most of the problems can be traced to tether drag. It kills everything that is good in any concept.
Generating in-flight and using a conductor is not a very bright idea to say the least. I am not a wireless expert, but who knows it could be a solution.
Using torsion at ground is interesting.
But at the end of the day investors have to let people try out these concepts. Remember, there are no laws as yet that could explicitly allow such adventures. FAA seems to be moving slowly to enable some activity over next few years.
Interesting discussion on this yahoo group
Congrats for receiving recognition recently.

archan · Post by **archan** » 15 Mar 2015 21:38

I'm helping someone who has shares, MFs and bonds from an era when ze internets didn't exist. Someone sold them with the old paper method.
So how do I get started? I have the list and quantity of each.

I'd like to set them up with something like icici direct so everything is brought online and trading can be done.

Vriksh · Post by **Vriksh** » 15 Mar 2015 21:47

Yallah Kenop-uddin I thought this was Burkha forum. BTW have we interacted somewhere before? Interesting reading that Yahoo group.

kenop · Post by **kenop** » 16 Mar 2015 05:30

archan wrote: So how do I get started? I have the list and quantity of each.

dematerialization process needs to be started

Procedure to dematerialize your share certificates:
Fill up a dematerialization request form, which is available with your DP. Submit your share certificates along with the form; (write "surrendered for demat" on the face of the certificate before submitting it for demat) Receive credit for the dematerialized shares into your account within 15 days.

kenop · Post by **kenop** » 16 Mar 2015 05:32

Vriksh wrote:Yallah Kenop-uddin I thought this was Burkha forum. BTW have we interacted somewhere before? Interesting reading that Yahoo group.

Sorry to cause alarm.
It was reported in a relevant burka phorum.

archan · Post by **archan** » 20 Mar 2015 18:51

dhoti shiver time begins..

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 20 Mar 2015 21:23

archan wrote:dhoti shiver time begins..

Why saar? The best time to buy stocks is when there is blood on the streets. Unless you urgently need money in next few months, (in which case that money should never be in stock markets in the first place!!!) we should be rejoicing when market falls.

Falling markets are like discount sales. Take advantage & ignore notional losses.

This is applicable only if we are buying quality stocks. If we buy crappy stocks, we will lose money sooner or later.

archan · Post by **archan** » 20 Mar 2015 22:09

Satya vachan.
Since I am a newbie, my equity investments are taken care of by the MF managers

. And they are doing a darn good job so far. My direct equity exposure is more of a learning exercise (hopefully without losing much money!). So far I have booked profit on scrips like Suzlon, Natco Pharma, Axis bank.
I'm not sure if I am looking for more long term direct equity investments as of now except for some scrips (I am holding my Lupin and some tiny test investment in Indowind). I booked profit/loss on everything else so I start with a clean slate and buying power on Tuesday.
I will still make some long term investments. Perhaps L&T, HDFC, TCS types.
But I am looking to play a bit of a dangerous game - double edged. I am thinking I will figure out something (through broker's research reports mainly) that is due to rise by say 20 points in the next 2 weeks. I want to buy like 1000 of those to seek a 20k profit and then get out. Of course, I can lose as well. The way to minimize risk would be I will only buy a good stock rather than betting on an unknown horse. Good like the ones I mention above. So even if i am down in 2 weeks, I have the option of holding on to it for months or even years. Let's see how this works. So I am not planning to build an independent equity portfolio as such at the moment.
In any case they are expecting a good 20% or so correction and some say it could fall to 8000 levels even. So it's the time to bide one's time I guess.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 23 Mar 2015 12:15

Experts, I am planning to invest about Rs 15,000 every month in MF.
Can you suggest few good options available in the market. My time horizon is about 3-5 years.

Archan ji: If it was so easy to figure out stocks that would rise 20% in 2-3 weeks, we all would be sipping Pina Colada in a hammock in some tropical Island with a hot bikini babe on the side

a_bharat · Post by **a_bharat** » 23 Mar 2015 18:47

The annual expenses of equity mutual funds are anywhere between 2-3%, which is quite a big chunk of the returns. So, I was thinking of moving my Mutual Fund investments into my own portfolio of stocks. Here is a list of 25 stocks I used to construct my portfolio (4% each), mostly based on ROE, Revenue Growth, Operating Margin and PE. A few of the stocks made it to this list despite high PEs, due to other factors. This list is not meant for trading -- only for long term investing: (> 5 years) with periodic reviews, say every quarter. The review is not for price movement, but to check whether the fundamentals remain in tact.

archan · Post by **archan** » 23 Mar 2015 19:45

Good list. I'll soon start building SHQs portfolio with long term focus only.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 23 Mar 2015 20:49

Funny because I too have a large portfolio with about 70 stocks.
So do you folks think that it is better to build our own MF ?

a_bharat · Post by **a_bharat** » 24 Mar 2015 07:06

If you think you have the time, inclination and right psychology for managing long term investments, you can consider doing it yourself. (The fact that we spend time on BRF means we do have spare time

)

One thing that is holding me back in managing my own portfolio of individual stocks is the lack of comfort factor with the discount brokers that I use for short term trading. I don't feel comfortable keeping more than 10 lakhs with any single broker for long term investments. The bigger and more trustworthy(?) firms like icicidirect have exorbitant transaction charges (but will still be cheaper than MF expenses, if there is not too much churn in the portfolio).

Even though there are intermediaries like CDSL and NDSL involved with demat account management, frauds did happen in the past, so, I am trying to understand the loopholes in the system and means to safeguard against frauds before exiting my mutual fund investments.

archan · Post by **archan** » 24 Mar 2015 16:49

How much brokerage do you pay in %age terms?

a_bharat · Post by **a_bharat** » 25 Mar 2015 04:36

If you are used to US online trading, you will be shocked at how much it costs to trade with bigger name Indian online brokerages in the equity delivery segment. At icicidirect, the charges are:

brokerage: 0.55% of turnover (x 2 for buy & sell)
Service Tax: 12.36% on brokerage
Securities Transaction Tax: 0.1% of turnover
SEBI turnover charges at 0.0002% on turnover.
Transaction Charges will be charged @ 0.0031% for NSE

So, if you turnover your portfolio a couple of times in a year, your expenses equal equity MF expenses.

There are several online discount brokers in India (I use Zerodha and RKSV where the brokerage is much less -- 20 Rs per trade + Rs 490 for 1 crore of turnover charges, but rest of the taxes apply, the biggest component being 0.1% of STT). But, I won't be comfortable with keeping large long term investments with these brokerages or other similar ones. Fradulent transfers and transactions were reported with even the bigger full service brokerages such as Edelweiss and UTI securities. http://www.rediff.com/money/2006/may/08spec2.htm

archan · Post by **archan** » 25 Mar 2015 13:52

I had thought of going with RKSV for trading but after talking to their representative (who barely seemed interested) and getting all their forms etc. I didn't go through with it. It appeared that I won't have smooth online transactions as they cannot have an account for me. They would go through a 3rd party to give me an account to trade. It was a tad too complicated for my gyan level.

a_bharat · Post by **a_bharat** » 25 Mar 2015 14:30

archan wrote:They would go through a 3rd party to give me an account to trade. It was a tad too complicated for my gyan level.

That is strange. Usually they are very eager to open new accounts. Did you by any chance tell them that you are new to trading? That is the only reason I can think of why they might have done this.

Perhaps the 3rd party reference was to the depositary participant for the demat account (for trading in equities -- non intraday). They take care of this part themselves, you only need to sign. Nothing unusual here.

For trading in futures (stock, commodity, currency) and options, you don't need a demat account. But for trading stocks for delivery, i.e, non-intraday trading (which is what I think you want to do), you do need a demat account which they will arrange through 3rd party depositary participant such as IL&FS.

archan · Post by **archan** » 25 Mar 2015 17:32

^ yes. I am not a trader, but an investor mainly and partly a fun seeker/gambler and student of the market.
I get emails from NSDL to use their app to view my demat account. One I recognize is through my depository participant (DP) and they were able to provide me the 8 digit customer ID. However, I got another email saying that I have to get (another) ID from BNP Paribas who is apparently my DP. I have never dealt with them so I am not sure why NSDL has a demat account in my name with them as my DP.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 28 Mar 2015 16:06

Bhai log, Pls advice a good MF for SIP with a time horizon of 3-5 years. Intend to reduce investment in gold ETF after 2 years of investments now and switch back to MF.

a_bharat · Post by **a_bharat** » 28 Mar 2015 18:07

There are lots of good funds, but which one(s) to choose depends entirely on your risk tolerance and any hard requirement to withdraw the money after n number of years (irrespective of the market condition). If you aim for higher returns, you will have to accept higher risks. Here are a few funds in the increasing order of risk and returns:

Birla Sunlife Short Term Fund -- a debt fund, can expect 10-11% annual returns, relatively safe
HDFC Balanced Fund -- a balanced fund (65% equity, 35% debt); go with this if you are aiming for about 16% returns with moderate risk
UTI MNC Fund -- a diversified multi-cap equity fund; consider this if you are aiming for > 20% returns with higher risk
HDFC MidCap Opportunities -- a mid-cap equity fund; consider this if you are aiming for > 20% returns with higher risk

If you have a hard requirement to withdraw money after x years, go with short-term debt fund. Otherwise, you may incur a loss if the market conditions are not good at the time you withdraw.

srin · Post by **srin** » 02 Apr 2015 20:45

Has someone here registered on to the MF Utilities for direct investments in MF ? I'm using FundsIndia right now, and want to move to direct plans. Any feedback on how long it takes to get a CAN ? And how the portal is ?

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 29 Apr 2015 02:02

"The best time to invest is when there is blood on the streets"

I hope people have taken advantage of recent 10% fall in the markets. Mid caps fell even more

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 29 Apr 2015 09:40

Can somebody track as to what are "New" Investments of Motilal Oswal and Jhunjunwala, so that we can do copycat.

VenkataS · Post by **VenkataS** » 01 May 2015 04:41

Guys - I have a basic question. How can I invest in Indian mutual funds in rupees (such as HDFC Balanced Fund). I am an NRI based in the US. If there is a way for me to invest which ones do you recommend I should choose. I plan to hold these long term. Currently I have an account with Fidelity.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 01 May 2015 05:46

Vamsee wrote:"The best time to invest is when there is blood on the streets"

I hope people have taken advantage of recent 10% fall in the markets. Mid caps fell even more

Boss, India or US?

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 01 May 2015 10:15

Pls Suggest specific shares one can buy

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 01 May 2015 14:34

NDTV Profit - Latest Research Report

http://profit.ndtv.com/market/market-da ... ch-reports

This is an effort to collect all such links in one thread for later reference. For all you TFTA research needs. There is NOT a recco on any site or stock.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 01 May 2015 23:00

vayu tuvan wrote:
Vamsee wrote:"The best time to invest is when there is blood on the streets"

I hope people have taken advantage of recent 10% fall in the markets. Mid caps fell even more
Boss, India or US?

India

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 01 May 2015 23:04

Gyan wrote:Can somebody track as to what are "New" Investments of Motilal Oswal and Jhunjunwala, so that we can do copycat.

Wrong approach. Most of RJ's wealth was made in Titan, Crisil & Lupin. Things like spicejet or A-Z engg are less than 1% of his portfolio.
If people buy them because they are "new", it would be a disaster.

If one really wants to copy RJ, put most of your money in above 3 & less than 1% in his "new" picks

Also I never understood this fascination with "new" ideas. Sometimes old is gold i.e. the best stock to invest may be one which is already in your portfolio.

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 05 May 2015 08:58

archan wrote:I'm helping someone who has shares, MFs and bonds from an era when ze internets didn't exist. Someone sold them with the old paper method.
So how do I get started? I have the list and quantity of each.

I'd like to set them up with something like icici direct so everything is brought online and trading can be done.

Archan,

First get a demat account.

Then check the brokerage of each of those shares. You will have to contacts them and ask them to convert the physical shres into demat form.

You might get multiple brokerages, but check if you have a dominant brokerage. Try to get a demat account with this brokerage - they will be more helpful in converting the shares they had handled and so a large portion will be taken care of by them.

If the owner of the shares is alive then process will take a few months. If not, it will take close to an year.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 05 May 2015 20:13

But these (old) shares of RJ are now pretty costly, not a value pick.

member_23061 · Post by **member_23061** » 07 May 2015 18:45

Has anyone here invested in the National Pension Scheme?

If so, which is your Pension Fund Manager? How have you distributed your assets?

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 08 May 2015 01:20

Gurus, will a long term government bond be a good option for pension?

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 08 May 2015 10:50

Vamsee wrote:
Gyan wrote:Can somebody track as to what are "New" Investments of Motilal Oswal and Jhunjunwala, so that we can do copycat.
Wrong approach. Most of RJ's wealth was made in Titan, Crisil & Lupin. Things like spicejet or A-Z engg are less than 1% of his portfolio.
If people buy them because they are "new", it would be a disaster.

If one really wants to copy RJ, put most of your money in above 3 & less than 1% in his "new" picks

Also I never understood this fascination with "new" ideas. Sometimes old is gold i.e. the best stock to invest may be one which is already in your portfolio.

But these (old) shares of RJ are now pretty costly, does not seem like a value pick. It would be helpful if you can explain why you feel these shares are still worth buying. Based on your earlier posts, I am looking to pick up some HDFC Bank as soon as the market gives me a chance.