Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 04 May 2015 11:32

My favorite quote from wikileaks was the one made by Li wherein he said that the GDP figures are just place holders and whats more keenly tracked in the electricity consumption.

The Chinese were always lying WRT the GDP numbers. Real GDP should be closer to 3.7-3.8% per most serious analysts.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 04 May 2015 18:33

Let’s not be in a hurry to resolve border dispute with China: Arun Shourie
About one of the few times I want Shourie to be wrong. The Modi government should listen to him and should do so because of his critiques.

It views India as a potential nuisance—one that must be kept busy in South Asia. And it has a willing instrument in Pakistan to do so. The Wiles of War, a Chinese war-classic, advises, “Murder with a borrowed knife”! Second, the Chinese establishment has long felt that Indians are a docile people who will always be doing somebody’s bidding: first they did what the British wanted; then India was under the tutelage of the Soviet Union; now, in their assessment, it is becoming the instrument of the Americans.

I would go further. As Mr Shyam Saran reminded us in his K Subramaniam Lecture, the Prime Minister must remember that the Chinese regard deception, double-talk to be just elements of statecraft, and would be astonished, even offended, if you held the deceptions against them. He recalled how, on his visit to Peking, Mr R K Nehru had told Chou en-Lai that China’s statements on Kashmir seemed to call into question India’s position in regard to J&K being a part of India. Chou had asked, “Has China ever said that India’s position on J&K is wrong?” We had taken this to be endorsement of our position. On a subsequent visit, R K Nehru drew Chou’s attention to the fact that by then Chinese statements had begun mirroring Pakistan’s position even more closely. He reminded Chou of what Chou had said on their last interaction: “Has China ever said that India’s position on J&K is wrong?” Chou now asked in return, “But has China ever said that India’s position on Kashmir is correct?”

One of our wisest strategic thinkers, General V Raghavan, tells us how they lull others by talking “strategic reassurance”, even as they foment “tactical turbulence”. And in our case, they are moving fast to reinforce not just tactical but strategic inequality: from Arunachal to the ring of ports, to the projects they are executing in PoK; from the planned railway line to Kathmandu to the militarisation of Tibet; from blocking ADB loan for a mere technical study for a project in Arunachal to preventing reform of the Security Council; even as they forcibly alter the rules of international order in the South China Sea and in regard to the Air Notification Zone in East Asia . . .

Raising issues apart, what more should the government do?

We must do everything possible to speed up development of the Northeast—and that does not mean just throwing money at the region; and ensuring that people from the region feel welcome and esteemed everywhere in India. Beware of opening up the border towards Kunming: that will only clear the gates for China to suck the Northeast into the Chinese “sphere of prosperity”. Second, we must reflect on what reconciling ourselves to Chinese occupation of Tibet has cost us. Our interests, our security are deeply intertwined with those of Tibet. There are several reasons why China is now fabricating and pressing its claims in regard to Arunachal. But one reason clearly is that it is preparing itself for the post-Dalai Lama time: that no reincarnation may be claimed to have taken place in Tawang, for instance, as is said to have happened in the case of the Sixth Dalai Lama. The slightest easing on such matters will have catastrophic consequences. Whatever the Chinese say, we must leave no one in any doubt that we will continue to support the Dalai Lama, and his successors.

We should go further and think in terms of a Buddhist civilisational challenge to China: careful observers of China report that large numbers of Chinese are turning again to dharma: including relatives of very high personages of the current government of China. But to do so, we must learn about Buddhism. We must revere those who practise it: especially the masters who are in India itself. Everyone will see through our efforts if we just use Buddhism as a device to attract tourists. Nor can we convince anyone that we are the land of the Buddha, that we greatly treasure the teachings and memory of the Buddha, and simultaneously try to snatch the Bodh Gaya temple from Buddhists.

What if you were asked to suggest just one or two things to the PM?

Don’t worry; I am not going to be asked. But if I were asked, I would say: one, do not disregard the institutional memory of the Ministry of External Affairs; more than that, two, spend time with those — persons like General Raghavan and Shyam Saran whom I mentioned — who have spent years and years studying China, and its methods. When you meet them, reflect carefully on views and assessments that are contrary to your instincts: remember the consequences that flowed from the heavy hand by which Panditji throttled the views which he said were contrary to his world view—those of the Counsel General in Lhasa, the Political Officer in Gangtok… to say nothing of the letter of Sardar Patel.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 05 May 2015 20:44

vijaykarthik wrote:My favorite quote from wikileaks was the one made by Li wherein he said that the GDP figures are just place holders and whats more keenly tracked in the electricity consumption.

The Chinese were always lying WRT the GDP numbers. Real GDP should be closer to 3.7-3.8% per most serious analysts.

May be you are correct. But even with fudged GDP numbers, it cant be below 4%. Any economist worth his/her salt knows how to improve GDP numbers. And Chinese have deep pocketed government who do exactly as these economists ask things to be done. The economists in turn are given specific instructions to give guidelines to make recommendations to improve GDP numbers. It gives us an idea why Chinese built a city where no one lives, why there are new factories springing up next to existing ones when the existing ones have enough capacity to more than easily double up the manufacturing etc.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 05 May 2015 23:12

panduranghari wrote:
vijaykarthik wrote:My favorite quote from wikileaks was the one made by Li wherein he said that the GDP figures are just place holders and whats more keenly tracked in the electricity consumption.

The Chinese were always lying WRT the GDP numbers. Real GDP should be closer to 3.7-3.8% per most serious analysts.
May be you are correct. But even with fudged GDP numbers, it cant be below 4%. Any economist worth his/her salt knows how to improve GDP numbers. And Chinese have deep pocketed government who do exactly as these economists ask things to be done. The economists in turn are given specific instructions to give guidelines to make recommendations to improve GDP numbers. It gives us an idea why Chinese built a city where no one lives, why there are new factories springing up next to existing ones when the existing ones have enough capacity to more than easily double up the manufacturing etc.

Why does China need economist when every dept is controlled by the state

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 05 May 2015 23:30

India China state discussion is now full fledged.

From 1962-1981 there was no discussion between China and India
From 1981-2002 - Only border discussion
From 2003- Full state dialogue

The west has managed to cut off relations between China and India for the last 60 years until 2003
The west has tried to control the future of Asia by controlling the state relations between the largest two states of 2.5 B population
Even the PRC trade relations out side China is controlled by US based companies owned by pro US chinese.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 05 May 2015 23:33

China's "dialogue" with India is basically worthless, given that China actions and words are never in sync as a matter of chinese policy. China says all sorts of cr@p with a large "buyer beware" sign on it. India's relations with China have been impeded not because of the USA but largely due to China's predatory behavior/policies in India's context.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 05 May 2015 23:35

View of Chinese leadership on Indians and Indian state is colored by the USA and western worldview

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 05 May 2015 23:53

svinayak wrote:View of Chinese leadership on Indians and Indian state is colored by the USA and western worldview

And you say this after watching the chinese hand over nuclear weapons to Pakistan and otherwise pick fights with India and usurp Indian territory? Really? Where did the US come in all of the above actions of the chinese? This view that the US is responsible for China's bloody minded behavior seems to assume (a) chinese leadership have not indulged in inimical behavior against India with intention to destroy India (b) Indians are too stupid to form their own views of china (from an overtly pro-china media in India) and have to depend on US sources. Both of those assumptions are not supported by reality.

Both US and China have been responsible in providing cover to the paki nuclear weapons and keeping them focussed on India, so there is no need to pretend that China is some sort of benign state that is being given a bad reputation by someone else.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 05 May 2015 23:56

Tuvaluan wrote:

And you say this after watching the chinese hand over nuclear weapons to Pakistan and otherwise pick fights with India and usurp Indian territory? Really? Where did the US come in all of the above actions of the chinese? This view that the US is responsible for China's bloody minded behavior seems to assume (a) chinese leadership have not indulged in inimical behavior against India with intention to destroy India (b) Indians are too stupid to form their own views of china (from an overtly pro-china media in India) and have to depend on US sources. Both of those assumptions are not supported by reality.

You need to read the history of China and US from 1900-1940.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 06 May 2015 00:20

You need to read the history of China and US from 1900-1940.

And you think that is going to explain china's proliferation to Pakistan? Seriously. The above history is bloody irrelevant as you would realize if you just stepped back and consider China's actions since 1960/1970s when they were an independent state and made whatever decisions based on their own worldview. Utter nonsense to pretend that history has influence on actions of states beyond a certain period. If you really think some past events around WWII influenced China's behavior in 1990s, you need to be less vague and state exactly how you came to that conclusion, because it just sounds like trash when you proclaim such things without evidence to back you up, at least in the form of the dots that you connected to make your claims.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 06 May 2015 02:12

Revising U.S. Grand Strategy Toward China
http://www.cfr.org/china/revising-us-gr ... r-campaign

"China represents and will remain the most significant competitor to the United States for decades to come. As such, the need for a more coherent U.S. response to increasing Chinese power is long overdue," write CFR Senior Fellow Robert D. Blackwill and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Senior Associate Ashley J. Tellis in a new Council Special Report, Revising U.S. Grand Strategy Toward China.
"Because the American effort to 'integrate' China into the liberal international order has now generated new threats to U.S. primacy in Asia—and could result in a consequential challenge to American power globally—Washington needs a new grand strategy toward China that centers on balancing the rise of Chinese power rather than continuing to assist its ascendancy."

The authors argue that such a strategy is designed to limit the dangers that China's geoeconomic and military power pose to U.S. national interests in Asia and globally, even as the United States and its allies maintain diplomatic and economic interactions with China.
Blackwill and Tellis recommend that Washington do the following:
Revitalize the U.S. economy
"Nothing would better promote the United States' strategic future and grand strategy toward China than robust economic growth…This must be the first priority of the president and Congress."
Strengthen the U.S. military
"Congress should remove sequestration caps and substantially increase the U.S. defense budget...Washington should intensify a consistent U.S. naval and air presence in the South and East China Seas," and "accelerate the U.S. ballistic-missile defense posture" in the Pacific.
Expand Asian trade networks
"U.S. grand strategy toward China will be seriously weakened without delivering on the TPP [Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement]. A major push by the White House for ratification should therefore begin immediately in the new Congress, including seeking trade promotion authority."
Create a technology-control regime
"Washington should pay increased attention to limiting China's access to advanced weaponry and military critical technologies." The United States should encourage its allies "to develop a coordinated approach to constrict China's access to all technologies, including dual use."
Implement effective cyber policies
Washington should "impose costs on China that are in excess of the benefits it receives from its violations in cyberspace…increase U.S. offensive cyber capabilities . . . continue improving U.S. cyber defenses," and "pass relevant legislation in Congress, such as the Cyber Information Security Protection Act.Reinforce Indo-Pacific partnerships
"The United States cannot defend its interests in Asia without support from its allies," and "should build up the power-political capabilities of its friends and allies on China's periphery."Energize high-level diplomacy with BeijingThe United States should work to mitigate tensions with China, and "reassure U.S. allies and friends in Asia and beyond that Washington is doing everything it can to avoid a confrontation with China . . . U.S.-China discourse should be more candid, high-level, and private than is current practice."

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 06 May 2015 02:32

svinayak wrote: Why does China need economist when every dept is controlled by the state

TO prevent them from being taken for a ride. But they still were. When US let China into the WTO in 2001, they made them sign all sorts of things to ensure Chinese can't get easy access to global markets. In theory WTO access means increase in global market access by equalising many things and providing a redressal system. China from 2001 started buying US treasuries like no tomorrow and until last October were the largest foreign buyers. All these savings but cant spend any. Economist driven investments into things like AIIB, NDB are white elephants. They have no future. Besides these economists being trained in the west, see the world through those western glasses. They think if WB worked for US, then AIIB will work for Chinese. You must read the essay by Michael Pettis on - Will AIIB one day matter - in the Chinese economy thread. Will clear many misunderstandings about the Chinese economic might or lack of.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 06 May 2015 02:36

should build up the power-political capabilities of its friends and allies on China's periphery."Energize high-level diplomacy with BeijingThe United States should work to mitigate tensions with China, and "reassure U.S. allies and friends in Asia and beyond that Washington is doing everything it can to avoid a confrontation with China . . . U.S.-China discourse should be more candid, high-level, and private than is current practice."

Interesting that the "dialogue" is to be "private". So, basically, US is being advised play both sides in Asia to maximize benefit (nothing new there)...same old Balance of power script. Raise the china boogie man and get the other Asian states to accept US as the "peacemaker" with China and privately deal with China to keep the other side in line. How nice.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 06 May 2015 13:31

China’s keenness to settle border dispute questioned - Dinakar Peri, The Hindu

The Chinese are always talking about fixing the border problem with India, but whenever it suits them they create a problem, Greg Sheridan, noted Australian Analyst and Foreign Affairs Editor of The Australian told The Hindu .

Hopes are high ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to China later this month on positive outcome on the boundary issue. The special representatives of both the countries on the boundary question recently concluded their 18th round of talks and agreed to find a “mutually acceptable resolution” at an early date.

“They want an issue they can turn on and off. I don’t think they are going to make a binding lasting settlement… It suits them to have these issues with lot of counties so they can turn on and off..,” Mr. Sheridan said. He was speaking at a lecture organised by Australia India Institute on Tuesday.

Observing that China could settle the issue any time if it so desires, Mr. Sheridan said there is only one way to do that which was accepting the existing positions.

While welcoming the rise and growth of China, Mr. Sheridan observed there are certain elements of Chinese behaviour that are troubling like the rapid military modernisation aimed at countering the US and “creeping annexation” of islands in the South China Sea by reclaiming coral reefs.

Welcoming greater multilateral military cooperation between India, Australia, Japan and US, Mr. Sheridan said, “India’s military doesn’t threaten anybody it reassures people, the stronger India’s military gets the better.”

Does the Aussie Government share India's concern about the increasing presence of PLAN in IOR and the sinister attempts it is making under the guise of MSR etc? There is certainly divergence on this issue between India and Australia.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 May 2015 23:27

jhujar, The measures suggested by kala vasiyat and Tellis are same old tired balance of power(BOP) strategy used by UK against Europe.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 07 May 2015 03:56

China-Pakistan bhai bhai - G.Parthasarathy, Business Line

Assessments of President Xi Jinping’s visit to Pakistan have varied from being characterised as a “positive development” for India to a “threat” to India’s security. Pakistani hyperbole outdid itself when a senior Pakistan diplomat described the relationship as: “Higher than the mountains, deeper than the oceans, stronger than steel, dearer than eyesight and sweeter than honey”!

Not to be outdone, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said the relationship was “unique, unparalleled in the history of sovereign nations”. President Xi was more measured, noting in Pakistan’s parliament: “Pakistan has stood on the frontline of the international fight against terrorism.” He called for elevating the relationship to an “all-weather strategic partnership”, to which Nawaz Sharif responded: “We are friends forever”!

The Chinese are supreme realists in assessing power equations within Pakistan. Xi Jinping made the unprecedented gesture of separately meeting Pakistan’s service chiefs led by generals Rashad Mahmood and Raheel Shareef; he had no time to spare for Pakistan’s hapless and mostly invisible defence minister Khwaja Mohammad Asif.

Mercifully, he did not follow the precedent set by President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan, who visited Pakistan’s generals in their GHQ in Rawalpindi.

Seeing things clearly

We should be clear about the emerging contours of the Rawalpindi-Beijing military nexus. The strategically located Gwadar Port, close to the mouth of the Straits of Hormuz, is now leased for 40 years to China. President Parvez Musharraf had declared in 2003, during the visit of former Chinese prime minister Zhu Rongji, that India would find the Chinese navy positioned in Gwadar in the event of hostilities.

China is bolstering Pakistan’s maritime capabilities. The supply of four frigates is to be followed up by 8 submarines. Not long ago, a PLA navy officer had warned: “The Indian Ocean is not India’s Ocean.” New Delhi will now have to look afresh at the security of its oil supplies.

Given the past history of nuclear weapons and missile collaboration between China and Pakistan, India should also presume that China will assist Pakistan’s development of plutonium-based tactical nuclear weapons. At the same time, one need not get too worried about Pakistan spending its scarce resources on acquiring Chinese equipment like its 1990s vintage JF 17 fighters. Moreover, the fear of facing a full-scale “two-front war” has to give way to planning responses for more realistic scenarios.

Xi Jinping’s comments suggest a continuing Chinese policy of not acting against and indeed condoning the activities of India-centric terrorist groups operating out of Pakistan. This will be reinforced by the emerging US-China-Pakistan axis, working for “reconciliation” with the Afghan Taliban.

Morale-booster

Xi Jinping arrived in cash-strapped Pakistan sounding like Santa Claus arriving with gifts to boost a sagging Pakistani national morale. The $46 billion aid package to Pakistan includes the construction of a “strategic corridor” linking Kashgar in China’s Muslim majority Xinjiang province, through the Pakistan Occupied “northern areas” of Gilgit and Baltistan, to Gwadar.

Interestingly, the route of the strategic corridor, which traverses Islamabad and Lahore (strongholds of Sharif’s Muslim League), was repeatedly changed to avoid the turbulent areas of the Pashtun-dominated Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province and Baluchistan. China has been concerned about the safety of its nationals in these provinces. Baluchi and Pashtun nationalists are not going to take kindly to this new routing.

China has been assured that the Pakistan army will raise additional units to provide security for its personnel. India has inexplicably not protested to China for undertaking such a project through PoK.

While the $46 billion “aid” programme looks generous, there is considerable opacity about the terms of repayment and other conditions attached to the implementation of projects involved. Apart from the much touted economic corridor, the bulk of the activity is in the power sector, involving coal-powered thermal projects, together with new coal mines and a few hydro-electric projects. These projects will reportedly add 10400 MW of capacity over the next 15 years.

Development projects funded under Overseas Development Assistance by western donors and Bretton Woods institutions such as the World Bank have traditionally been on concessional terms. Chinese aid projects, however, are often undertaken on quasi-commercial terms, involving little or no transfer of technology or skills. It was only when such terms became an unbearable burden in Sri Lanka that the Sirisena government pulled the plug on the Chinese-financed Colombo Port project. The Myanmar government similarly rejected Chinese projects for copper mining, a hydro-electric dam, and a proposed rail link between Kunming and Kyaukphyu in western Myanmar.

Many Chinese-aided projects are primarily for exploitation of raw materials in recipient countries. They are administered by Chinese state-run enterprises such as the CNPC or Petro-China, with supplies of equipment and machinery coming from Chinese state-owned enterprises such as Huawei.

Judicious approach

Pakistan will likely find that construction of the economic corridor will mean large elements of Chinese labour, raw material and machinery. While western China will get access to the oil-rich Persian Gulf though Gwadar, it is still not clear how this corridor, viewed with serious misgivings in the restive Baluchistan province, will catalyse growth across Pakistan. More importantly, can Pakistan, torn apart by terrorist violence and home to terrorist groups of various shades and colours, provide the sort of security the Chinese demand?

Pakistan has been in a state of economic crisis since the 1990s. Its economic fundamentals show no sign of the change required for rapid growth, with a declining tax/GDP ratio which has fallen to 9.2 per cent, and an abysmally low rate of domestic savings. The country now regularly seeks bailouts from the IMF and despite growing remittances from workers, has a precarious balance of payments situation.

In these circumstances, Indian diplomacy has to remain focused on terrorist and other challenges in relations with Pakistan.

There has to be a judicious mix of incentives and disincentives to deal with Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. We also need to evolve strategies and build partnerships to deal with an increasingly assertive China across our Indian Ocean neighbourhood.

The writer is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 07 May 2015 15:02

China proposes joint mining of Indian Ocean with India - PTI, ToI

Ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit here next week, China has said it is "eager to cooperate" with India on deep seabed mining in the Indian Ocean where its deep diving vessel reported to have discovered large deposits of precious metals like gold and silver.

"With quickening oceanic development and increasing mineral exploration in the Indian Ocean, China is eager to cooperate with India on deep seabed mining," the China Daily quoted China Ocean Mineral Resource R&D Association as saying.

Terming India an ideal partner, deputy director of the association He Zongyu told the state-run daily that "China and India are both developing countries and contractors with the International Seabed Authority (ISA) so we have a lot in common and plenty of opportunities for further cooperation."

The association is China's official organization engaged in exploration and development of ocean floor and subsoil.

Chen Lianzeng, deputy director of the State Oceanic Administration, visited India on April 20 and suggested the two sides enhance cooperation on oceanic research and development. "If we cooperate, we could share the costs, the risks and the benefits," He said.

Proposing the cooperation, He said China and India are on about the same level in terms of the development of deep seabed mining, which makes India an ideal partner.

Deep seabed mining is high-cost and high-risk work, with costs for a mining site topping $1.6 billion, he said.

Beijing's proposal for India-China cooperation comes in the immediate backdrop of the completion of the 118-day voyage of the China's deep-sea manned submersible Jiaolong in the southwest Indian Ocean here it reported to have discovered large deposits of precious metals like gold and silver.

During the latest mission in March, Jiaolong successfully carried out 13 dives to observe different hydrothermal areas, the characteristics of hydrothermal fluids and deep-sea biodiversity, gathering a huge amount of data and more than 700 samples.

The surprise proposal comes ahead of Modi's three-day visit from May 14 during which he will hold formal and informal talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang in Xi'an and Beijing.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 07 May 2015 19:59

Another ploy by the chinese to gain strategic dominance in the IOR by getting a nod from India to get its foot in the door. Hope the PM's peace-love-cooperation charade with China will not be followed by actual decisions that give an inch to china's design in the IOR. China is a hostile enemy as far as the IOR is concerned, but GUBO-ing to China is the overall foundation Indian diplomacy towards china these days.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 07 May 2015 21:07

Let China share the data as good will toward India. India then can study and verify before making any decision.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 07 May 2015 21:18

India already has these data and had a small program on this. This is about surface mining of poly-metallic nodules...just scoop the ocean floor.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manganese_nodule

This one has even more details. So why would we need Chinese help when we are a pioneer state in this activity.
http://www.deepoceanmining.org/docs/atmanand.pdf

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 07 May 2015 22:23

Chinese being deceptive in nature will never share the right data. Sucking up the mineral/ metalic noodles from ocean floor is more than decade old stuff. I recall, it was discussed here after 98 blast and sanctions. Real treasure is under the sea bed, nothing more important for us in IO than Gas Hydrates.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 08 May 2015 02:00

This entire chinese charade is just to get a reason to hang around in the Indian Ocean and then later on pretend that moving out is not an option as China has "interests" in the Indian Ocean, and they will point to India's acquiescence to the entire charade if India goes along with this BS now -- this is all about an excuse to be present in the region to challenge India down the line. If India does not relent, then India removes any excuse for china to hang out in the region, so the chinese will have to do so overtly without any fig leaf of "searching for minerals". Any attempts by them to start building structures in the Indian ocean will not have any fig leaf of "sucking minerals from ocean" or whatever stunt it is they are pulling. Recall that this is the same BS they are trying in the south china sea.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 08 May 2015 06:22

http://qz.com/397126/chinese-bloggers-a ... di-online/
Chinese bloggers are heckling Indian prime minister Modi online

ne of the top comments (link in Chinese) under Modi’s greeting was “Hello Indian brother! Tibet belongs to China.” The two countries remain at loggerheads over the Sino-Indian border in a region in the northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh that China refers to as “South Tibet.” A brief border war was fought in 1962 and incursions and skirmishes still occur today. Another blogger wrote “Tibet belongs to China,” and added 阿三, or A-san, a slangy Chinese term for Indians that dates back to British colonialism.China’s own leaders have been reluctant to open themselves up to a public forum, even in China, and that appears to have made international leaders even more welcome, no matter what the politics. As one Chinese commentator wrote to Modi, “Hello PM! Hope you can quickly get used to the bloodbath that is Weibo! Looking forward to interacting with you.”Chinese leaders would likely get an even harsher skewering than Modi, if they were to join Weibo themselves. One blogger wrote on Modi’s page, “A foreign prime minister’s Chinese microblog. Where is the Chinese microblog of China’s premier?”

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 08 May 2015 08:09

SSridhar wrote:China proposes joint mining of Indian Ocean with India - PTI, ToI

India should propose joint management of Tibet with China.

Pulikeshi · Post by **Pulikeshi** » 08 May 2015 08:26

Jhujar wrote:http://qz.com/397126/chinese-bloggers-a ... di-online/
Chinese bloggers are heckling Indian prime minister Modi online

”Chinese leaders would likely get an even harsher skewering than Modi, if they were to join Weibo themselves. One blogger wrote on Modi’s page, “A foreign prime minister’s Chinese microblog. Where is the Chinese microblog of China’s premier?”

The Chinese stratagemic Sun Tzu would say:

"Heckle Indian Prime Minister, look like a *&@#!)*~!! - around the world"

or

"Cheer the Buddha's birthday tweeting Indian Prime Minister message of peace, get thrown in reprogramming camp"

Sucks to be Chinese citizen! All your weibo belongs to us!

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 08 May 2015 17:27

South Korea vows to get tough with illegal Chinese fishing - AFP

South Korean fishermen who work the flashpoint maritime border with North Korea tend to be a resilient bunch, but these days a larger, more powerful neighbour is making them lose sleep.

“North Korea is nothing compared to the Chinese fishing ships,” said Choi Won-Jin, who has fished the crab-rich waters around his home island of Daecheong for decades.

Daecheong is one of five “frontline” islands whose proximity to the disputed border with North Korea means they are manned by thousands of South Korean soldiers and bristling with artillery units and bomb shelters.

But all that weaponry has failed to guard against what Choi sees as the biggest threat to the livelihood of the islands’ fishing communities — the “invasion” of Chinese trawlers.

According to official estimates, more than 1,000 Chinese fishing ships illegally accessed exclusive South Korean waters around Daecheong last year, with only four coastguard ships on hand to pose a deterrent.

The numbers have been growing every year as China’s increasing affluence and appetite for seafood pushes more fishermen to venture beyond its overfished waters.

Smaller, wooden Chinese ships sneaking into South Korean waters were once tolerated in an area where the top priority has always been guarding against potential incursions from North Korea.

But in recent years, the small boats have given way to larger steel trawlers who engage in bottom trawling — dragging a large, weighted net across the sea floor — and sweep up “everything in their path,” Choi told AFP.

“By the time they are gone, we have nothing left. It’s all gone, including our fishing pots,” he said.

Around 2,200 Chinese vessels have been stopped and fined by South Korea for illegal fishing in the past four years, and the number of arrested fishermen jumped from two in 2010 to 66 in 2013.

There were only five arrests in 2014, but coastguard officials said that was largely due to all resources being diverted to the lengthy rescue and recovery operation that followed the Sewol ferry disaster in April that year.

Chinese captains are well-organised, said coastguard commando Lee Kyung-Hak, and frequently chain their ships together “like a big floating city” in the event of a confrontation.

Crew members often arm themselves with steel pipes and knives, and have been known to throw burning gas canisters at officers trying to board their ships.

“We are trying our best to drive them off our territory... but the sheer number of them sometimes feels overwhelming,” Lee told AFP.

A recent study estimated that 675,000 tonnes of fisheries products were illegally taken from South Korean waters in 2012 by China — with a value of around 1.3 trillion won ($1.2 billion).

“If anything, the situation has worsened since then,” said Lee Kwang-Nam, head of the Fisheries Policy Institute in Seoul who authored the 2014 study.

According to Lee, the undermanned coastguard only manages to seize or arrest less than one percent of Chinese poachers.

“Our fisheries resources are relatively well-preserved thanks to strict regulations... but may face serious shortages if this pace keeps up,” he told AFP.

Under growing domestic pressure to crack down harder on the Chinese fishing vessels, South Korean officials have signalled a tougher line with the start of this year’s fishing season in April.

“We were greatly outnumbered and overwhelmed by them last year... but we’ve had enough,” said Yun Byoung-Doo, the chief of the Incheon coastguard which guards the Yellow Sea border islands.

Yun said the coastguard would use firearms, including handguns and onboard cannon more actively “if deemed necessary.”

Beijing’s foreign ministry, when contacted by AFP, did not directly comment on Seoul’s toughened stance against illegal fishing, but urged it to “enforce the law in a reasonable way, and ensure the safety and lawful rights and interests” of Chinese fishermen.

“China will continue to strengthen the education and guidance for its fishermen,” it said in a statement faxed to AFP.

Two Chinese fishermen have been killed in violent clashes with the South Korean coastguard since 2012, prompting angry protests from Beijing.

Seoul insists the violence is initiated by the Chinese crews and point to the stabbing death of a South Korean coastguard member in 2011 by a Chinese fisherman.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 09 May 2015 00:14

http://www.mumbaimirror.com/columns/col ... 208379.cms
What Modi can offer China

Here are five sectors where we need an aggressive push. The first is pharmaceuticals.
...The second area is IT and software.... The third sector where India can make a dent is cinema and entertainment. ...The fourth sector is tourism....A fifth area for increasing India's exports is industrial goods, including auto ancillaries, small scale engineering, metal works etc.

....
Apart from these five examples, Modi can make a grand offer to China. Since we owe $ 40 billion to them (our net trade deficit), ask them to invest that money annually into India's infrastructure (like roads, ports, airports, dams, power projects). We can guarantee them a better return than what they get from investing in the US bonds. They anyway have a stock of close to $4 trillion foreign exchange, so 40 bn is barely 1 per cent.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 09 May 2015 03:56

RajeshA wrote:
SSridhar wrote:China proposes joint mining of Indian Ocean with India - PTI, ToI
India should propose joint management of Tibet with China.

This would actually be a very useful step in the right direction - perhaps even partition tibet between independent Tibet (South/West) and TAR. Let the govt. in exile move to the independent region. In exchange, China stops needling via Pak. Time for India to further the ante by starting talks with Taiwan.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 09 May 2015 08:44

Red sanders smuggling: duo remanded in A.P. - K.Umashanker, The Hindu

While the A.P. police have alleged that red sanders smugglers in Rayalaseema had links with their patrons in China, Myanmar and South East Asian countries, they had not been able to substantiate their claims.

The arrest of a Chinese national Yang Ping in Hyderabad in a joint operation by the Red Sanders Anti-Smuggling Task Force and Chittoor police on Thursday is likely to be a breakthrough, police said. Red sanders commands a premium in China.

The recent arrest of Chennai-based Yangon-settled Soundara Rajan and his gang on the West Bengal-Bhutan border and Chennai on April 17 appear to have given vital clues to the Chittoor police and that helped them unravel the Chinese links.

Police brought Ping and Raju to Chittoor on Friday and after a formal medical examination, produced them before III Additional Judicial Magistrate Court, which remanded them. Chinese currency to the tune of 10,000 Yuan and Indian currency of Rs. 10,000 and 30 kg of red sanders logs, were seized from Ping.

The arrested duo have been mentioned as A4 and A5 in the FIR filed by the Puthalapattu police.

Yang Ping, who had a valid passport and visa, is said to be on this fourth visit to India, police said. According to the FIR, the Chinese national, informed the police that he had visited India as a tourist, and that he was trying to take some small quantity of red sanders to China.

member_23692 · Post by **member_23692** » 09 May 2015 09:35

Indian Army faces massive ammo shortage, reserves may last 20 days of intense fighting: CAG report

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-new ... 45376.aspx

I have repeatedly made the point about our armed forces' lack of preparedness. Now the government has said it. Not just the ammo, there are many many more serious issues with our preparedness.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 09 May 2015 10:11

China a huge market for smuggled red sanders - Devesh K Pandey, The Hindu

The arrest of an alleged Chinese smuggler of red sanders at Chittoor in Andhra Pradesh on Thursday provides yet another indicator of the ever increasing cross border smuggling of the rare wood for use in the manufacturing of musical instruments, expensive furniture and cosmetics in China.

In the past two years, Indian enforcement agencies have arrested or detained about 60 Chinese nationals for their suspected role in the illegal trade in connivance with local gangs operating in southern Andhra Pradesh and northern Tamil Nadu.

The rampant smuggling had led the A.P. police to set up special task forces and in one of the alleged confrontations, 20 alleged illegal red sander woodcutters were killed in Seshachalam forest of Chittoor last month.

Investigating agencies have reasons to believe that China-based organised gangs, which are suspected to have set up base in Sri Lanka, have been indulging in large-scale smuggling of red sanders.

Last year, the Customs Department had detained nine Chinese nationals with over 400 kg of red sanders at the international airport in Ahmedabad. The accused were attempting to smuggle the consignment out via Singapore.

Four other Chinese nationals were arrested by the Bengaluru police in January for allegedly storing and running a “rare wood” illegal factory. Another consignment was seized at Kolkata international airport in December 2013, following which a Chinese national was arrested under the Wildlife Protection Act and the Foreign Trade Act.

Similar seizures have been reported at the Delhi airport as well, with the enforcement agencies impounding over 18,000 kg of red sandalwood in 2013. Large seizures have also been reported at Mumbai airport in the recent past. The Directorate of Revenue Intelligence has also seized similar consignments.

The Chinese are systematically denuding us of our flora & fauna.

anchal · Post by **anchal** » 09 May 2015 11:46

^^Did CAG feel some shame before signing on that report indicating critical ammo shortage? He had been Defense Secy during UPA II loot era, appointed as CAG by Maino, just after venerable Vinod Rai. So we all know how much integrity the guy has or what stellar role he played in bearing that situation after such a 'hard work'. Truly shameless!

If there is one cadre which has done the most damage to the nation per capita, it has to be the IAS. Most are pretentious crooks with oversized egos, woolly ideas about their being messiah and obviously create redundant institutions to secure cushy jobs post-retirement - NHRC, minorities commission, National Green Tribunal, pollution control boards, RTE advisory committees, SC/ST commissions, empowered committees. In short, sum total of 1/6th humanity is deemed to vest in 5,000 "civil" servants. Nobody has ever known better nor would know in future

<rant>
There is little hope for any change. Every person who comes to Delhi become infested with status quoism singing praises to the 'steal frame'. I was surprised to see Modi's high praises to these overlords on civil service day! </rant off>k

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 09 May 2015 12:46

Japan, Philippines to hold first naval drill in South China Sea: sources - Japan Times

Japan and the Philippines will hold their first joint naval drill this month in the South China Sea near a disputed shoal claimed by Beijing, sources in Tokyo and the Philippines said.

Tuesday’s maritime safety exercise, which will practice the code for unplanned encounters at sea, known as CUES, is part of an agreement signed by Japan and the Philippines in January aimed at tightening security cooperation.

The nature of the training is unlikely to worry China unduly, as it has conducted similar exercises with the United States in the past.

But the presence of Japanese naval vessels in the South China Sea signals Japan’s growing interest in the region, and may irritate Beijing as criticism of its land reclamation projects there mounts.

“The exercise will not be far from Scarborough Shoal,” one of the sources in Japan said, referring to a rocky outcrop that China seized in 2012 after a three-month standoff with the Philippines.

The two-hour practice within Philippines territorial waters near Subic Bay, a former U.S. navy base, will involve a Japanese warship and a Philippines Navy frigate, a spokesman at the Philippines Navy said.

A spokesman for Japan’s Maritime Self Defense Force declined to comment.

China, which claims about 90 percent of the 3.5 million sq. km (1.35 million sq. mile) South China Sea, is asserting its territorial claims by building a chain of man-made islands on coral reefs in the Spratly archipelago.

The Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam also claim large parts of the sea.

Recent satellite images show China is reclaiming land around seven reefs in the Spratlys, and is building what appears to be an airstrip on one of the artificial islands.

Although it has no territorial claims in the South China Sea, Tokyo is worried that Beijing’s domination of the region could give it control of international waterways through which a significant portion of Japanese trade travels.

Japan’s military is considering joining the United States in maritime air patrols in the South China Sea as a counterweight to growing Chinese power, sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters last month.

That strategy, which is being encouraged by the Philippines, is spurring closer security ties between Manila and Tokyo. Their defense agreement in January also established regular vice ministerial defense talks and exchanges of senior officers.

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 09 May 2015 17:29

China's total debt reaches 282% of its GDP: McKinsey

BEIJING: China's debt mountain is casting a shadow over the world's second-largest economy.

Total debt has reached 282 per cent of GDP, according to the McKinsey Global Institute. While other big economies aren't far behind, it's the pace of China's credit expansion that's worrying policy makers, spurring targeted stimulus strikes while trying to avoid a debt sugar hit.

Here's how the debt breaks down, according to McKinsey: Central government debt is low by global standards, giving room for fiscal stimulus if the economic downturn deepens. Local authorities are in a more delicate position, having borrowed heavily via vehicles after the global financial crisis and now grappling with repayments.

While bank debt doesn't flash red alert yet, rising bad loans signal more pain to come. For non-financials, especially real estate developers, the burden is greater, raising question marks over whether monetary policy loosening will spur a pickup in loan demand among already tapped out corporates. Last month, Baoding Tianwei Group, a power-equipment maker became China's first state-owned enterprise to default on domestic debt.

Now on to the good news: households. China's famously frugal citizens have plenty of scope to take on more credit, spurring hopes consumption can help plug a growth gap that's widening amid the slowdown in investment.

As for who dished out the loans, an estimated 30 per cent comes from the shadow banking system -a lending channel policy makers are trying to rein in due to concerns over transparency. Then there's foreign lending, which could come back to bite if the currency weakens. Even after a slight decrease in the fourth quarter of 2014, outstanding claims on China totaled $1 trillion at the end of 2014, well ahead of $308 billion for Brazil and $196 billion for India. There are signs that credit has peaked, with Standard Chartered estimating China's debt-to-GDP ratio is stabilising.

Cheers

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 09 May 2015 18:16

When we go to the horse's mouth:
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/econom ... leveraging

China’s debt has quadrupled since 2007. Fueled by real estate and shadow banking, China’s total debt has nearly quadrupled, rising to $28 trillion by mid-2014, from $7 trillion in 2007. At 282 percent of GDP, China’s debt as a share of GDP, while manageable, is larger than that of the United States or Germany. Three developments are potentially worrisome: half of all loans are linked, directly or indirectly, to China’s overheated real-estate market; unregulated shadow banking accounts for nearly half of new lending; and the debt of many local governments is probably unsustainable. However, MGI calculates that China’s government has the capacity to bail out the financial sector should a property-related debt crisis develop. The challenge will be to contain future debt increases and reduce the risks of such a crisis, without putting the brakes on economic growth.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 10 May 2015 13:35

Dancing with the dragon

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 10 May 2015 16:55

Japan, EU to warn against China’s maritime ambitions - JIJI, Japan Times

BRUSSELS – Japan and the European Union are considering warning against China’s expansion in its maritime operations in a communique to be adopted at their upcoming summit meeting, it was learned Saturday.

A draft communique for the May 29 summit in Tokyo says, “We underline the need . . . to refrain from unilateral actions, including the use of force and coercion, that could increase the tension in the East and South China Sea.”

The communique for last year’s Japan-EU summit made reference to East Asian maritime security but did not mention any specific geographical name. If this year’s communique actually refers to the East and South China Seas, Japan and the EU will be taking one step further in issuing a warning against China.

Regarding the ongoing negotiations to conclude a Japan-EU economic partnership agreement, the draft communique says, “We aim to reach agreement in principle encompassing all the key issues on a highly comprehensive and ambitious Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) during 2015.”

If this sentence is retained in the actual communique, it will be the first time for Japan and the EU to set a deadline for the negotiations.

Touching on Japan’s so-called proactive pacifism policy, which calls for the country to play a more active role in ensuring world peace and stability, the draft says the EU leaders “welcomed and supported Japan’s efforts including its efforts for the development of seamless security legislation” to allow the country to exercise the right to collective self-defense, or coming to the aid of an ally under attack, and expand the roles played abroad by the Self-Defense Forces.

In connection with the 70th anniversary this year of the end of World War II, the draft notes both Japan and Europe, including the EU, have made “contributions to the peace, stability and prosperity” of the international community. The Japanese and EU leaders “reaffirmed the commitment to further enhancing cooperation and collaboration in this field at both global and regional levels,” draft statement says.

EU member countries are now discussing the draft communique and may add some opinions and make wording adjustments, an informed source said. But the Japanese and EU sides have already agreed on the basic portions of the communique, the source added.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 10 May 2015 18:13

http://www.oneindia.com/international/c ... 42673.html

Washington, May 10: China has significantly increased its defence budget which is now more than three times that of India, the Pentagon has said. China's official defence budget last year was USD 136.3 billion while that of India was USD 38.2 billion, the Pentagon said in its annual report to the Congress based on its assessment of military and security developments involving the Communist giant.

Read more at: http://www.oneindia.com/international/c ... 42673.html

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 10 May 2015 19:44

India can go to war with China,saysVice Chief of Army General Philip

While inaugurating a seminar, 'Make in India Made Easy:Opportunities and Challenges in Defence Sector', at the Army
Institute of Management Technology, Lt General Campose said "Economically and militarily, India and China are moving to the world's most influential nations and there is much likelihood of both countries to enter into a war in this decade."

Philip emphasised the need for a synergised approach by all stakeholders to ensure success of the 'Make In India' initiative in the defence sector and said India's 60 per cent defence procurement requirements are met by imports.

Moreover the effect of China's influence in Asia can be judged along their shared 4,057-km border, most notably over Arunachal Pradesh (which Beijing asserts is part of Tibet and therefore of China), and over the Aksai Chin region at the western end of the Tibetan Plateau

Lt General Campose said " India is facing threat from China and the terror groups like Islamic State, Talibans and Al Qaeda from neighbouring country Pakistan .

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 10 May 2015 22:43

panduranghari wrote:
vijaykarthik wrote:My favorite quote from wikileaks was the one made by Li wherein he said that the GDP figures are just place holders and whats more keenly tracked in the electricity consumption.

The Chinese were always lying WRT the GDP numbers. Real GDP should be closer to 3.7-3.8% per most serious analysts.
May be you are correct. But even with fudged GDP numbers, it cant be below 4%. Any economist worth his/her salt knows how to improve GDP numbers. And Chinese have deep pocketed government who do exactly as these economists ask things to be done. The economists in turn are given specific instructions to give guidelines to make recommendations to improve GDP numbers. It gives us an idea why Chinese built a city where no one lives, why there are new factories springing up next to existing ones when the existing ones have enough capacity to more than easily double up the manufacturing etc.

Mmh. Except that it is. How? Because no one apart from China understands how they calculate inflation. A lot of serious economists have tried and have got frustrated and left it. And unless inflation is calc properly, its clear that *real* GDP can't be estimated.
The estimated real GDP is in the region of 3.6-3.8%

If anyone is interested and motivated, just try checking the various ways Chinese industries cheat - by using circular letters of intent, credit and also how they move money out of the country by inflating their export item bills of material etc. Its a fascinating read of how its a house of cards and how stuff NEVER adds up. Yes, there are bills to show that trades took place but there are fictional entries just to increase velocity (of money) but the actual trade doesn't take place at all. Raw material at times doesn't even leave the godown.