Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 21 Jun 2015 23:13

http://tribune.com.pk/story/907482/disc ... l-estates/

ISLAMABAD:
During a preliminary research on the prospects of investment under the China-Pak Economic Corridor accord, I found out that over 150 such zones and estates were created ever since the military regime of Ayub Khan (1958-68).

Less than half of them are operative. Where did hundreds of billions of rupees spent on creating them go? Purchase of lands, Pc-1s, grading of land, leveling, infrastructure and amenities were some of the categories under which the bureaucracy used the taxpayer money for creating these estates.

Most of them, however, were non-starters as the existing ones were inoperative and no survey and research was conducted on the prospects of new ones. For the federal and provincial bureaucracy, this venture was one of the biggest sources of cuts and commissions. The authorities mostly purchased land pieces at higher-than-market rates, offered them to the buyers who eventually sold them out like property pieces when the prices went up. They never set up an industry, in clear violation of the rules that governed these estates—these lands were exclusively for creating industries, and not for commercial sale.

The authorities did not go after the culprits, as they too, were in league with them. The trend of buying and selling of plots eventually began converting the estates into mini townships and places of villas. Billions of rupees are still pending against the original buyers of these industrial plots, but with no serious official follow-up for recovery.

K Mehta · Post by **K Mehta** » 22 Jun 2015 09:01

@a Gupta ji no idea, have not looked into it. Only thing I know is that it will be through public or foreign debt.
Both of which are huge already.

K Mehta · Post by **K Mehta** » 22 Jun 2015 10:04

Continuing the budget discussion

The revenue is supposed to increase by ~18% from 2.9 trillion PKR to 3.4 trillion PKR, while last year there was a shortfall of ~10%.

My estimate is that this year at least 0.3 trillion PKR shortfall will be there along with 0.1 trillion PKR shortfall in provincial surplus. There will be other shortfalls too, like privatization etc. Already they have announced rollback of schemes that will cost them ~0.200 trillion PKR. Then there is higher cost of oil which will drive the deficit further.

The military budget will also go up because of
1 obsolescence
2 zebr e azzb
3 disproportionate response by our side and force modernization.
4 blowchistan ops
5 usual increases.
My estimate is that this will be around 0.300 trillion PKR.

Then there is fudged data like unreturned advance taxes claimed as income in revenue etc. That will screw up the budget real bad.

The "circular debt" issue will be a catastrophe in this scenario. Dar has tried to kick the can down the road by offering a rebate. Success of this scheme is doubtful.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/905340/amne ... ues-by-30/

Private sector’s power dues have mounted up to Rs382.7 billion, which indicates weakening of the state’s writ. In its summary, the Ministry of Water and Power told the ECC that out of Rs382.7 billion, an amount of Rs181.8 billion could be recovered as a result of the amnesty scheme. Major defaulters in the private sector are industrial consumers.

The non-payment of power dues is one of the main reasons behind the continuous inter-corporate power sector debt.

According to a World Bank report on monitoring implementation of $600 million energy sector reforms loan, by March this year, bill collection stood at 88.5%, only a slight 2.5% rise from levels in June 2013. The remaining 11.5% adds into the country’s mounting circular debt each month.

Add to this the added debt that has to be paid now after the mush adjustment has ended.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/900316/bill ... comes-due/

Pakistan must begin repayments on $8.6 billion in loans in fiscal 2016.

In the first year, Islamabad would return $252 million to the Paris Club – the common name for 18 developed countries, formerly known as the Aid to Pakistan Consortium. In September 2001, the Paris Club rescheduled $12.5 billion Pakistan’s debt. Out of that $3.6 billion in Non-Official Development Assistance (ODA) had been rescheduled for five years and its payments already started in 2006.

In the outgoing fiscal year, Pakistan returned $233 million to Paris Club on account of non-ODA debt. The Paris Club’s remaining outstanding balance stood at $11.6 billion by March 2015 – roughly $900 million less than the amount rescheduled in 2001. However, the major chunk of $8.6 billion of concessionary loan, Official Development Assistance (ODA) had been rolled over for a period of fifteen years.

K Mehta · Post by **K Mehta** » 22 Jun 2015 10:24

Regarding the schedule of "load shedding"

http://tribune.com.pk/story/902676/repe ... -billions/

overview of the schedule of power outages being implemented in urban, rural and industrial areas. On average, power companies are resorting to load-shedding for six hours in urban areas, eight hours in rural areas and four hours in industrial areas throughout the country.

However, the duration of outages varies in areas covered by the feeders where losses are high.

Daga said the ministry could implement the approved load management plan strictly in accordance with the directives only because of increased hydroelectric power generation and favourable weather conditions that kept the demand within manageable limits.

However, the power ministry needed continuous and enhanced support of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources and the Ministry of Finance in the shape of uninterrupted fuel supply and cash support.

In case of any interruption in oil and gas supplies, he cautioned, it would hardly be possible to maintain the schedule of outages in rural and urban areas.

Hat tip to dishaji about the weather conditions. The krachi baking is going to go up.

amit · Post by **amit** » 22 Jun 2015 11:44

The perils of getting into debt with China.

Ecuador To Sell A Third Of Its Amazon Rainforest To Chinese Oil Companies

Ecuador owed China more than $7 billion — more than a tenth of its GDP — as of last summer.

In 2009 China began loaning Ecuador billions of dollars in exchange for oil shipments. It also helped fund two of the country's biggest hydroelectric infrastructure projects, and China National Petroleum Corp may soon have a 30 percent stake in a $10 billion oil refinery in Ecuador.

"My understanding is that this is more of a debt issue – it's because the Ecuadoreans are so dependent on the Chinese to finance their development that they're willing to compromise in other areas such as social and environmental regulations," Adam Zuckerman, environmental and human rights campaigner at California-based NGO Amazon Watch, told the Guardian

In the bolded part you can interchange Eucadoreans with Pakistanis.

I think it's becoming clear why the Dragon was so munificent with its gold for the Pakis. They don't want it back with interest. Being an expansionist power they want land and resources in exchange. POK for strategic reasons to ensure that India does not get a land route to Central Asia and resource rich Baluchistan are likely targets.

Falijee · Post by **Falijee** » 23 Jun 2015 22:45

World Bank to release $500 million credit today- Pakistan Breathes Sigh of Relief

Vice President of the World Bank’s South Asia Region Ms Annette Dixon called Finance Minister Ishaq Dar on Monday to congratulate him on successful completion of talks on Development Policy Credit-II and convey that “$500m would be released within 24 hours”.

What do you mean "500m would be released within 24 hours" - we wanted it yesterday

Last week, the bank had approved the $500m loan to support the privatisation [*] [/b]and revenue generation programmes, but deferred an equivalent loan for energy sector reforms because of slow progress on that front.

[*][/b] Now wait for street protests following rate increases

The credit is financed from the International Development Association, the World Bank[*] Group’s grant and low-interest arm, with a maturity of 25 years, including a grace period of five years.

[*] Is Indian Money indirectly being used for life support to this critically -ill patient ?

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 28 Jun 2015 20:01

Exports in Pakistan fall short on target
ISLAMABAD:Pakistan’s exports of merchandise fell short by over $2.8 billion in the fiscal year (outgoing), the third consecutive year in which PML-N failed to achieve targets.

The government had projected an export target of $27bn for 2014-15, but actual export proceeds stood at $24.2bn.

One of the major factors of decline in exports is concentration of exports in textile and clothing which constitute as much as 50pc. Exporters blame the ministry of textile industry for its failure to guide the industry.

Cheers

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 29 Jun 2015 11:37

Is it the WB? I saw in the TV that IMF was planning to give about 506mn as a bailout.

that's what this says too: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 858308.cms

Or is it that both WB and IMF are giving 2 different bailouts [one goes to the nominal head Sharif and the other to the actual head Sharif?]

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 29 Jun 2015 11:42

^ on 2nd thoughts, its possible that the idiots at Dawn don't actually know who is actually giving them money? I see nothing in the news reg WB paying Pakistan money.

WOW. A wonderful Paki media fail moment.

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 29 Jun 2015 14:07

vijaykarthik wrote:^ on 2nd thoughts, its possible that the idiots at Dawn don't actually know who is actually giving them money? I see nothing in the news reg WB paying Pakistan money.

WOW. A wonderful Paki media fail moment.

vijaykarthik Ji :

A double WOW Indeed. Methinks mayhaps there are two tranches programmes i.e. Both from IMF & WB.

Cheers

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 29 Jun 2015 14:26

World bank:
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press- ... mic-growth

IMF
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2015/pr15301.htm

$500 million each.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 30 Jun 2015 06:08

its indeed as we have thought. 2 different tranches of about 506 mn each. Amounts to approx. 1.1bn USD. Why this urgency for 2 different banks to go heels over head and give Pakistan money now? [I wonder if the timing has anything to do with the AIIB?]

Isnt it that Obama approved the tranches amounting to about 908mn USD after he came to India? I would think sometime like Feb, they got about 908mn USD as part of the US assistance.

that's about 2bn USD in a few months in assistance and development loans.

Falijee · Post by **Falijee** » 04 Jul 2015 18:04

Four Pakistani Banks Fail To Meet Minimum Capital Requirement Rules - I.M.F

KARACHI:

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that as many as four small banks operating in Pakistan are still below the minimum absolute capital requirement.

In its seventh review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), the IMF said these banks have yet to meet the minimum capital requirement (MCR) of Rs10 billion, although they fulfill the capital adequacy ratio requirement of 10% of their risk-weighted credit exposures.

Speaking to The Express Tribune, Taurus Securities Head of Research Zeeshan Afzal said the ‘equity without surplus’ of Silk Bank, Bank Islami, Burj Bank and First Women Bank was less than Rs10 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2015.

In the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies submitted to the IMF, the government had assured the IMF that the SBP was making progress in bolstering banks that were below the regulatory capital adequacy requirement. Only one out of 36 banks remained CAR-noncompliant, the memorandum said.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 04 Jul 2015 20:04

Bloomberg story:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... an-revival

One sentence in it:

Pakistan is a reform story like neighboring India’s, but only better, said Renaissance’s Robertson.

Pakistani take on it:
http://dunyanews.tv/index.php/en/Pakist ... -Bloomberg

LAHORE: (Web Desk, Dunya News) – Pakistan’s economy has been declared better than India’s in Bloomberg report published on Friday. Pakistan has been included among the Top 10 emerging economies of the world, reported Dunya News.

According to the report published by Bloomberg, economic reforms and good relations with the international monetary organizations gave boost to Pakistan economy. It said that the success is better than India’s.

Here are Pakistan's cement figures:
http://www.apcma.com/data_monthly1415.html
Overall, 3.47% growth in volume year-over-year (2014-15 compared to 2013-14), with 7.98% growth internally and 10.82% shrinkage in exports.

The installed capacity (May 2015) is 45,618,750 (presumably tons/year).
http://www.apcma.com/data_productioncapacity.html
The annual production is 32,134,417 per above link, i.e., 70% utilization, which is apparently a trigger for adding more capacity (e.g., Indian figures - http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/eco ... 811938.ece )

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 04 Jul 2015 23:43

http://tribune.com.pk/story/912659/regi ... n-2014-15/

Stocks that yielded the highest returns in 2014-15 were Pak Elektron (236%), Kohinoor Textile Mills (170%), Maple Leaf Cement (154%), Indus Motor (148%), Honda Atlas Cars (135%), Fauji Cement (92%), Nishat Chunian Power (81%) and Hub Power Company (78%).

Pak Elektron is heavily into home appliances. There is a construction increase, presumably driven by the demand for housing. And there are cars. Seems like there is some upper class/middle class strength in the Paki economy?

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 04 Jul 2015 23:44

Other question for the gyaanis - the Chinese stock market has dropped 30% of its value in the last three weeks; though folks are saying it is only a market correction, not a crash, $3.7 trillion in value has been lost. In those circumstances, what the effect on promised Chinese investments in Pakistan?

Falijee · Post by **Falijee** » 05 Jul 2015 00:22

A_Gupta wrote:http://tribune.com.pk/story/912659/regional-markets-kse-100-outperforms-most-in-2014-15/
Stocks that yielded the highest returns in 2014-15 were Pak Elektron (236%), Kohinoor Textile Mills (170%), Maple Leaf Cement (154%), Indus Motor (148%), Honda Atlas Cars (135%), Fauji Cement (92%), Nishat Chunian Power (81%) and Hub Power Company (78%).
Pak Elektron is heavily into home appliances. There is a construction increase, presumably driven by the demand for housing. And there are cars. Seems like there is some upper class/middle class strength in the Paki economy?

My question:

-Are the Financial Statements of these companies audited- did they receive a 'clean' audit report?
- Is this a one -time phenomenon?
- What does 'highest return' mean ?
As they say, the devil is in the details

Trust But Verify- as the cowboy US Prez, used to say

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 05 Jul 2015 03:07

Cross Posted on STFUP Thread

Forced closure: Textile millers decide to close down business after Eid

LAHORE: Punjab-based textile millers have decided to close down their industrial units, blaming direct and indirect taxes coupled with the energy crisis as the core reason for them to take the extreme step.

“We had persuaded our members to not go on strike but the current scenario has tied their hands and they have no choice but to opt for the closure,” said All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (Aptma) Chairman SM Tanveer.

The textile industry consumes about 2,000MW of electricity, most of which is consumed in Punjab.

Tanveer said the additional tax translated into an extra burden of Rs200 million per day on the textile industry. The power tariff in all regional economies is lower than 10 cents while Pakistani spinners, after the levy of tax, are charged 14 cents per unit.

“Against Pakistan’s textile exports of $13 billion, the industry will be paying an additional $1 billion in new power and energy taxes imposed in the budget,” he said. “Which industry could bear an additional 9% expenditure when it cannot recover the money from exports?”

Cheers

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 05 Jul 2015 18:45

To better understand the Pakistan economy, it may be necessary to dig into its real-estate market. What is available on the web is information about the upper end of that market.

1. Via Wiki ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marla_%28unit%29 ) Indian marla and Pakistani marla differ.

1 Pakistani marla = 20.903 square meters
1 Pakistani kanal = 20 Pakistani marlas = 418.06 square meters.

2. http://www.homespakistan.com/blog/predi ... ctor-2015/
"Predictions for Pakistan real estate sector in 2015"

When it comes to Pakistan real estate sector, since the beginning of 2014, the residential and commercial market showed stability in terms of buying and selling activity in all the leading cities. As the year progressed, the market started showing increase in demand of properties in Lahore, Karachi and Islamabad along with substantial increase in property prices. However, right after the announcement of annual budget 2014-15 when the government increased the amount of property taxes and in August 2014 when anti-government protests recrudesced in Islamabad, the market experienced a negative (downward) growth trend.

Most of the transactions are cash based in realty sector, therefore, as soon as investors return, the market shows positive and upward growth trend. Majority of overseas Pakistanis are willing to invest their hard earned money in realty sector.

When it comes to Lahore, DHA is and will be the ultimate choice for investing in properties in Lahore. Other than DHA, Johar Town, Model Town, Gulberg, and Bahria Town will be star performer in Lahore. In recently launched societies, LDA City will manage to attract more number of potential property investors. In Islamabad, Zone II holds charm and attraction for potential investors due to its growth and promising returns. You can invest in Fazaia Housing Scheme, Tarnol, Army Welfare Trust (AWT), and Pakistan Engineering Cooperative Housing Society (PECHS).

However, in Karachi, DHA, Clifton and Bahria Town will continue to be the most promising residential societies in terms of Return on Investment (ROI) and security situation. More and more people are buying properties there and properties prices are at their peaks in these areas.

3. http://www.homespakistan.com/blog/real- ... n-economy/
"Real Estate Sector to contribute more to Pakistan economy"

Bahria Town is the largest real estate development in Pakistan, which has also introduced a new concept of gated residential developments. Bahria Town is the first residential society in Pakistan that is load shedding free and developer made sure to implement the idea of foolproof security. Following its footprints, developers now tends to offer the same features in their newly-introduced residential societies. For instance, most of the new gated residential societies are now load shedding free and fully secure.

After being open heartedly accepted in Lahore, the developer launched Bahria Town projects in Islamabad and Karachi. Bahria Town Karachi (BTK) is a huge success as it offers secure and extortion free lifestyle to the residents there. Besides premium living, Bahria Town also offered economical housing options named Awami Villas for middle and lower middle income strata.

Another magnificent real estate project is Defence Housing Authority (DHA), which is administered by Pakistan Army and mainly develops residences for in-service and retired military officers. Like Bahria Town, DHA is also extended to all major cities such as Lahore, Karachi and Islamabad. Recently, the authority has also introduced this project in Multan and Gujranwala.

These two and few other high end residential developments have been fuelling the growth of real estate sector in Pakistan.

4. http://www.zameen.com/blog/expert-inter ... e-4-u.html
"Expert Interview: Syed Khurram Gillani of Estate 4 U"

Zameem.com: Which areas are good for short- and long-term investment in Lahore?

SKG: I would obviously suggest DHA Lahore for both short- and long-term investment. You might think I am being biased about DHA, but the fact remains that in DHA people do not face litigation issues and they see excellent appreciation with complete peace of mind.

And if you want me to be specific, I would say DHA Phase VII is good for short-term investment. DHA handed over possession in Blocks Q, S, T, U and V of Phase VII four months ago, and the developer will soon provide possession in the remaining blocks. And for the long term, I recommend Phase IX (Prism 9) for the reasons I have highlighted above.

The residents of Lahore face land-grabbing issues in Lahore Development Authority (LDA)’s housing projects and many other societies, but DHA is safe for investment as well as living.

Since the inception of DHA Lahore in 1979, people have not seen any problems here, which is the main reason I recommend it for both short- and long-term investment.

Zameen.com: DHA or Bahria Town, where would you suggest overseas Pakistanis invest, and why?

SKG: Bahria Town is a one-man show. Though DHA does not offer as many facilities as Bahria Town, it is also true at the same time that the former provides investment security, which is why I would suggest overseas Pakistanis invest in DHA.

In Bahria Town, the allottees are often compensated with alternate plots because of litigation issues and investment there usually becomes more of a gamble. Also, when Bahria Town launches a new project, it forgets its previous projects. In DHA there are no such issues. For instance, the launch of DHA Gujranwala and DHA Multan did not affect DHA’s market in Lahore at all.

5. Current prices (Lahore, daily price update)
http://www.lahorerealestate.org/lahore- ... es-update/

DHA Town Lahore Phase 9 5 Marla For 38.70 Lacs
DHA Lahore Phase 9 Proper 1 Kanal For 58.50 Lacs

etc.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 05 Jul 2015 19:11

http://dailytimes.com.pk/punjab/05-Jul- ... s-minister

To another question, he said that efforts were being made to improve recoveries, besides giving incentive package and “we would go to any level for this purpose”. He added that Sindh government’s Rs 69 billion recovery is receivable, HESCO (Hyderabad) and SEPCO (Sukkur) Rs 70 billion, PESCO (Peshawar) Rs 90 billion, QESCO (Quetta) Rs 148 billion, AJK Rs 48 billion and FATA owe Rs 49 billion.

Abid said that electricity worth billions of rupees was being stolen across Pakistan, asserting that “PESCO’s 600 feeders are running in loss and its 110 feeders are making up 85 percent losses, similarly there were law and order issues in QESCO domain, while all the four distribution companies’ (DISCOs) in Punjab (Lahore, Faisalabad, Gujranwala and Multan) and Islamabad’s (IESCO) accumulative losses remained at only 14 percent.”

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 05 Jul 2015 20:35

http://www.dawn.com/news/1192398

After an especially dry 24 hours, satellite imagery on the Met Office website showed even more clear skies over Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran and most of northern and western India, with no sign of cloud cover anywhere.

“Due to these conditions, very hot and humid weather is expected in the plains of the country up to Sunday,” a Met official told Dawn.

In the context of this forecast, the Ministry of Water and Power issued a statement on Saturday night advising consumers across the country to save electricity by minimising the use of air conditioners so as “to avoid forced loadshedding”.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 06 Jul 2015 12:06

A_Gupta wrote:Other question for the gyaanis - the Chinese stock market has dropped 30% of its value in the last three weeks; though folks are saying it is only a market correction, not a crash, $3.7 trillion in value has been lost. In those circumstances, what the effect on promised Chinese investments in Pakistan?

FWIW: its indeed a controlled pricking of the asset bubble that China is seeing. And its become too frothy even for China.

But whats more shocking: I think they timed their stimulus of today in such a way that it will buffet the Greece vote. Looks like it did work for a couple of hours but its broken again (but not down for the day yet).

China is facing headwinds and is in a spot of bother. But that will not impact the promised Chinese investments. This fall in mrkts will clobber the retail investors the most as in most developed companies. The smart money will have gone out already by now. And the Chinese state owned companies will do their bidding regardless of how bad things are - because that's the only way its possible to survive and exist.

A Deshmukh · Post by **A Deshmukh** » 06 Jul 2015 12:11

Q for TSP experts:
when will TSP reach Greek-like debt trap / economic collapse status?
Who are the topmost lenders to TSP?
What can they take if TSP is unable to repay the debt?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 06 Jul 2015 12:26

A Deshmukh wrote:Q for TSP experts:
when will TSP reach Greek-like debt trap / economic collapse status?
Who are the topmost lenders to TSP?
What can they take if TSP is unable to repay the debt?

can't see this happening.

their nukes are their red lined firewall onlee. Any hint of serious distress that may induce them to sell their nukes in the open market will bring uncle sam running to their rescue as indeed it will bring prospective customers desperately buzzing around like flies on a shit pile.

the pakis will expertly play on this fear long before such a point is reached.

They are already in deep shit with the saudis and gelf states being katti with them. The pakis have made a major, major mistake here in cutting off the saudis and the gelf states like they openly did by using the pathetic sham excuse of their parliament. The saudis and other gelf arabs have lost face in the region and that is a very big tribal no, no.

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 06 Jul 2015 12:45

chetak wrote:They are already in deep shit with the saudis and gelf states being katti with them. The pakis have made a major, major mistake here in cutting off the saudis and the gelf states like they openly did by using the pathetic sham excuse of their parliament. The saudis and other gelf arabs have lost face in the region and that is a very big tribal no, no.

Is that really so? We haven't seen Saudis (or their affiliates) take any drastic steps against Pakis- no calling in debts, no suspension of oil credit, no expulsion of Paki workers infesting their lands...

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 06 Jul 2015 12:59

Kashi wrote:
chetak wrote:They are already in deep shit with the saudis and gelf states being katti with them. The pakis have made a major, major mistake here in cutting off the saudis and the gelf states like they openly did by using the pathetic sham excuse of their parliament. The saudis and other gelf arabs have lost face in the region and that is a very big tribal no, no.
Is that really so? We haven't seen Saudis (or their affiliates) take any drastic steps against Pakis- no calling in debts, no suspension of oil credit, no expulsion of Paki workers infesting their lands...

in good time saar. The house of saud does not like to lose face in such a manner, as indeed the other gelf sheiks. The pakis have seriously blotted their copybook and it's no longer business as usual. The sheiks wanted paki body bags not arab ones.

the arrest of Zaid Hamid is the first tangible expression of their displeasure. Eight years and 1000 lashes is no joke. They will lash the bugger 10 times, wait for it to heal, then lash him 10 times again wait for that to heal and so it will go on.

each lashing will tear the flesh from his back and take weeks /months to heal

Falijee · Post by **Falijee** » 06 Jul 2015 21:43

Is ‘Oh my God’ going to become ‘Oh my Allah’

in Pakistan?

Falijee · Post by **Falijee** » 06 Jul 2015 22:15

Paki Female 'Mule'

Caught In Middle

Money laundering case: Model’s remand extended till July 13

A customs court on Monday extended model Ayyan Ali’s judicial remand in the money laundering case till July 13.

The model said she was being denied her basic rights as [*]suspects arrested for laundering Rs25 crore and Rs16 crore were granted bail but her bail applications have been rejected.

[*][/b] Maybe, she needs to' realign'

her political connections

Ali’s counsel, former Punjab governor and [*]Pakistan Peoples Party leader Sardar Latif Khosa[/b]

[*] At least , the 'Party' has provided her with top

-notch legal advice pro-bono

Ayyan Ali once again refused to meet her father Raja Hafeez who had come to the court on Monday. The model’s counsel requested the court to ask Hafeez to leave the courtroom.

The 'poor woman' is caught between in a unfortunate tussle between two Paki politcal factions and is now paying the price .

And no one is 'willing' to save her skin or her reputation with all these 'unfounded' rumours of her pregancy floating around!

Falijee · Post by **Falijee** » 06 Jul 2015 22:28

Sorry, Posted In Wrong Thread !

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 08 Jul 2015 16:41

There is some consumer uptick in Pakistan it would appear.
http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2015/07 ... -trillion/

As against a single-digit growth in overall advances, car financing increased by 11pc in first four months of 2015 which is the highest during the last eight years, according to data of State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 10 Jul 2015 22:56

Why Pakistan Economy Is Weaker Than India?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wn4SQO-FEUg

Shankas · Post by **Shankas** » 12 Jul 2015 08:31

Wonder what happened to this...

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 15 Jul 2015 17:30

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/business/1 ... fy-2014-15

Overseas Pakistanis sent around $18.454 billion home in financial year 2014-15 (FY 14-15), showing a significant double-digit growth of 16.5 percent compared with $15.837 billion received in previous financial year.

I wonder if this is the underlying cause of uptick in construction, cars, and other consumer durables.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 16 Jul 2015 09:15

A Gupta, part of that 18 Billion is Gulf and Massa Backsheesh which is hidden as NRP remittances to save H&D.

abhischekcc · Post by **abhischekcc** » 16 Jul 2015 11:57

Falijee wrote:Sorry, Posted In Wrong Thread !

No no its fine. After all, drugs are one of the pillars of paki economy.

Falijee · Post by **Falijee** » 21 Jul 2015 22:30

Lack Of Trust And Regulations

Haunt Pakistan`s E Commerce Experiment

Flaws in Pakistan’s e-commerce industry needs immediate fixes

The field of electronic commerce is relatively new and its usages are alien to most business enterprises in developing countries. Pakistan constitutes around 200 million individuals, 9 percent of whom went online during last year while another 30 percent are likely to get connected to Internet in next three to five years (or earlier).

With such stats, Pakistan is bound to become next major internet market – in terms of number of connected people – within next few years and this is a potential that should be kept in mind while dealing with all things online.

Despite such huge potentials, our e-commerce industry – like any other thing in Pakistan – is operating with near to zero regulations. Currently, the whole Pakistani commerce industry is operating on Trust which is just a wrong way of doing e-commerce.[[*]quote]
[*] Trust but verify

Such fraudulent activities are in fact already happening, for example a person from Peshawar [*]lost his Rs. 126,000 that he paid online to acquire some computer items. His ordee r was never delivered neither he has received any refund even after three months of initial transaction.
[/b]
[*] Rules in Frontier Towns are always `flexible`

Similarly, a person from Karachi Gaffar Ahmad ordered an Air Conditioner (AC) from Daraz.PK and paid the bill through credit card in advance. After two weeks, instead of delivering the
order, Daraz notified him that AC was out of stock and that his payment will be refunded after 45 days because that’s how banking system works.

These example, alongwith unreliable supply of electric power indicate that Pakistan is not yet ready for E commerce

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 23 Jul 2015 16:22

Pakistan's economic disarray. Heritage Foundation - so the "how to fix it" part is another matter.
http://www.heritage.org/research/report ... -to-fix-it

Two sample paragraphs:

Since the late 1980s Pakistan has increasingly relied on foreign assistance, in the form of grants or loans, to keep its economy afloat and bridge the gaps caused by persistent deficits. Pakistani governments have been overspending for decades, in part due to increases in debt servicing, large subsidies to public-sector enterprises (PSEs—specifically in the electricity sector), and questionable development spending. The result has been an almost permanent budgetary gap—8.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the 1960s, and 8.5 percent in 2012[5]—that has meant unending reliance on external borrowing. Recent trends have shown an improvement to 5.5 percent in 2014, due to the government’s efforts to reduce expenditures and a growth in tax revenues; according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), however, this improved performance was supported by several one-off inflows—including the fact that the government did not provide the de facto subsidies to the electricity generation/distribution sector in FY 2014[6] by paying off that sector’s “circular debt” as it had in prior years.

The continuing balance-of-payments crisis and insufficient foreign exchange reserves have prompted the IMF to sign 12 agreements with Pakistan since 1988. With each agreement, Pakistan pledged to endeavor to reduce its balance-of-payments deficits and raise the level of reserves,[12] and each time it failed to do so. The most recent IMF bailout was a loan signed in 2013 for $6.6 billion under a 36-month Extended Fund Facility, notwithstanding the fact that Pakistan had not met some of the conditionality terms of its previous IMF package signed in 2008.[13] Tax revenue targets were not met, and Pakistan requested relaxation of budget deficit targets to avoid excessive cuts in development spending

In the "How to Fix it" section, as expected, "India must" do a lot.

Pakistan and India together must fully ratify SAFTA; open their markets and borders to facilitate low-cost trade; decrease overall tariffs for all eight South Asian countries under the agreement; categorically remove the many physical barriers (such as inefficiencies at the border for transport and transit, difficulties in custom procedures, complex visa regimes, operational, infrastructural and banking constraints); and eliminate the unyielding, bureaucracy-based, non-tariff barriers that have hindered trade, specifically on the Indian side of the border. As part of its counterterrorism efforts in South Asia, the U.S. government should encourage economic cooperation between the two countries, which would stabilize the region.

IMO, India should do the above pairwise with each cooperating member of SAARC.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 23 Jul 2015 20:17

The state of Pakistan Railways:
http://tribune.com.pk/story/924031/paki ... ges-ahead/

Though the company is recovering and increasing its locomotive strength by rehabilitating and purchasing new engines from the most trusted name – General Electric – mostly for freight operations, its assets are deteriorating.

“The railways lacks technical and infrastructural expertise as it didn’t hire the required technical staff due to small number of express and branch line trains,” the official said.

Apart from this, the tracks and bridges are in a dilapidated condition. Of the total 13,841 bridges, most have crossed their life span. Signalling system too has not been upgraded, which may lead to an unpleasant situation.

“We are working with a small number of technical workers since the financial health of railways is not allowing the recruitment of new staff,” said Inayat Ali, President of the Railways Workers Union. “It is now looking for more government support like in the case of purchasing new coaches.”
...
...
“I don’t think railways can go for rehabilitation and upgrading of the new track alone. We have limited powers and have the expertise to only repair or lay short-distance tracks,” Anwar said.

I'm just thinking of the wealth of railway expertise in India that might be available to Pakistan in Indian Rupees (not USD or EUR) if only it came to its senses.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 26 Jul 2015 01:34

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... 0-day.html

While I hate the poverty *****., there is some important info in this headline:

Portraits of poverty: Powerful images capture the children, elderly, mystics and snake-charmers in Pakistan who survive against the odds on as little as £1.30 a day

* The people live in the slums of Sahiwal, Pakistan's 22nd largest city, which has a population of around 270,000
* More than 60 per cent of the city's residents live in extreme poverty, surviving on as little as £1.30 a day
* United Arab Emirates photographer and professor Sohail Karmani wanted to show how people survive in poverty
* He shot expressive portraits of everyone from children to the elderly, to mystics, snake-charmers and fruit-sellers

I am following Sahiwal, because of the coal thermal power plant there is a prime example of purported Chinese investment in Pakistan.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 27 Jul 2015 08:48

The WTO, on the export performance, commented that Pakistan has a very narrow export basket where three categories of products (agriculture, textiles, clothing) are approximately ¾ of Pakistan’s exports. The situation has not improved since the last review of Pakistan in 2008.

"WTO's trade policy review..."
http://tribune.com.pk/story/926822/wtos ... rformance/