Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan-July 10, 2015

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 19 Aug 2015 22:04

The Hindustan Times reports:
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-new ... 81996.aspx
Top general says pounding Pak posts to cause casualties

A top army officer on Wednesday said the Indian Army was pounding Pakistani positions along the Line of Control (LoC) with explosives to cause enemy casualties in retaliation to ceasefire violations.

Days ahead of NSA-level talks on August 23-24, Nagrota-based 16 Corps commander Lieutenant General RR Nimbhorkar told HT, “Our job is to make them suffer casualties, otherwise they will merrily escalate hostilities. We are responding with overwhelming firepower to stop them in their tracks.”

He said Pakistan-provoked military escalation in the Jammu region had spread fighting to a 114-km expanse of the LOC and forced the Indian Army to adopt a muscular stance.

A surge in ceasefire violations by Pakistan has triggered skirmishes along a stretch of more than half of the 224-km disputed border in the region. Ceasefire violations in the Jammu region have spiked since August 8, with Pakistan cranking up tensions with the use of high-calibre weapons and targeting civilian population.

The area has seen more than 20 violations during the last 10 days, including a mortar attack that left five civilians dead and 20 injured in Poonch sector on August 15. “We are prepared for any type of escalation and our retaliation will be massive. However, being a professional and ethical force, we will never target their civilians,” said Nimbhorkar, who has served in J&K for more than 15 years during his 37-year-long military career.

Pakistan is using 120mm and 82mm mortars, 14.5mm anti-aircraft guns, rocket-propelled grenades and heavy machine guns against Indian targets. The 120mm mortar bombs have an explosive content of 10.5%, compared to 3.7% in the 81mm mortars India retaliates with. “The quantum and accuracy of our firepower is sufficient to deal with them,” the general said.

Each violation by Pakistan triggers a heavy exchange of mortar, rocket and machine gun fire that usually goes on for several hours. Pakitani troops on Wednesday stepped up offensive in Hamirpur and Mendhar areas in Poonch, triggering an exchange of fire that lasted nearly six hours.

"The 120mm mortar bombs have an explosive content of 10.5%, compared to 3.7% in the 81mm mortars India retaliates with" -- please explain what this means?

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 19 Aug 2015 22:12

CRamS wrote:
A_Gupta wrote:http://zeenews.india.com/news/india/ind ... 49509.html

India to respond 'appropriately' if Pak NSA Sartaj Aziz meets Kashmiri separatists

What that means is not spelled out.

Yesterday, true to his form as an ISI spokesman, thappad demanded that P.R.Chari, BJP spokesman, explain what Doval meant by TSP losing Baluchistan should they attempt another 26/11. P.R. Chari handled himself well, but it could very well be that ModiJi could invite a few Baluch leaders in retaliation, or at least warn TSP that India could play the Baluch card.

Questions though are, like the aggressive defense and hitting TSP hard for their LoC violations, will India threatening to play the Baluch card deter TSP from its Kashmir obsession? I would any day welcome India to show some spine and support Baluchis in their quest for self determination from Pakijabi Nazis. And there is no comparison, none whatsoever, betwene the papmemered treatment that Kashmiri Muslims get with the sorry plight of the Baluchis, not to mention all the legal angles.

But assuming India does use the Baluch card, and assuming TSP really the feels the heat, and agrees to to lay off Kashmir if India lays off Baluchis, while it will be fine in real-politick terms for India, it will be sad IMO for India to use the Baluchis and then dump them when India's objectives are met (this is US/UK style of betrayal). But then again, in international relations, there is no morality, so I am torn.

In any case all this moot, I am not sure how much of Baluch lever India really has over TSP as Doval claims compared to the Kashmir card that TSP (and its 3.5) has over India.

Just want to point out that anyone wanting India to play the "Baloch card" should consider the human aspect in which Balochis are not just cards.

They are already getting massively tortured and murdered by paki army, despite there being some sort of lip service in paki political circles about doing justice to them. If India openly embraces the Balochis, there will be no end to the hell they will suffer at the hands of genocidal pakis. Demographically and geographically they are in a very different position than erstwhile east pakistanis in terms of fighting back. They are very much diluted with influx of pakhtuns etc, anyway they have a low population to start with. We are not in a position to save them the way we saved the east bengalis, and Iran is not going to intervene either.

salaam · Post by **salaam** » 19 Aug 2015 22:13

Shahid Masood - 19 Aug

Salient Points:
- Coming up NSA talks are going to be tough as per the discussion points shared till now.
- India will raise Gurdaspur whil Pak will raise Balochistan.
- Its unusual what Modi did in UAE, i.e. address a crowd of 50k
- Even Madhuri/Aishwarya gather a crowd of 100k in UAE, so its not great that a 'similar' character like Modi attracts 50k.
- If Pak is being sidelined will a 'Hindu' protection army goto SA? Or will Indian army separate muslims for deployment in SA?
- We can't refute the fact that Modi Saheb is an active guy. Modi is a middle class guy who went to top, unlike our politicians who have kids/properties in Dubai.
- This is going to be a very interesting game if India jumps in Middle-East fire.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 19 Aug 2015 22:14

Karan Pradhan in Firstpost:
http://www.firstpost.com/world/call-in- ... 99010.html

But wait, you may well ask, if Pakistan doesn’t want talks, why doesn’t Islamabad just go cancel them instead of embarking on this far more complicated and tedious route?

Answer: That doesn’t fit into the Pakistani strategy of denial, misdirection and self-victimisation. By letting New Delhi cancel talks, Islamabad is able to take the perceived moral high ground and tell the world (especially Kashmiris) that India is not interested in the peace process.

For example, check out last year’s MoFA statement issued after foreign secretary-level talks were cancelled by India. It rued that the “Indian decision is a setback to the efforts by our leadership to promote good neighbourly relations with India”.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 19 Aug 2015 22:18

KLNMurthy wrote:
Just want to point out that anyone wanting India to play the "Baloch card" should consider the human aspect in which Balochis are not just cards.

They are already getting massively tortured and murdered by paki army, despite there being some sort of lip service in paki political circles about doing justice to them. If India openly embraces the Balochis, there will be no end to the hell they will suffer at the hands of genocidal pakis. Demographically and geographically they are in a very different position than erstwhile east pakistanis in terms of fighting back. They are very much diluted with influx of pakhtuns etc, anyway they have a low population to start with. We are not in a position to save them the way we saved the east bengalis, and Iran is not going to intervene either.

If Lahore and Islamabad is under attack and the Pakistani army is busy in those areas, then it leaves the Balochis, Sindhis and Pakthoons to do whatever they want. So, Bhaarath is in a position to help them by mounting an attack on the main cities of Pakjab which are right at the border of Bhaarath.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 19 Aug 2015 22:38

“Talks with Pakistan are like walking on glass,” BJP spokesperson M.J. Akbar told a TV channel on Wednesday. “You don’t know when they can shatter.”

via the Hindu:
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/i ... 556731.ece

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 19 Aug 2015 22:42

Tuvaluan wrote:
So I am quite certain that when PM Modi gives in somewhere, it is because he is getting something more somewhere else. Strategy should not be viewed at the individual two-body game level. In a crude quantitative way, assign some value number to each of India's important relationships. Each action India takes, adds or diminishes to each of these numbers.
That is all well and good. My point is that it is clear that the pakis have gamed India's reaction not least due to "8% economy will lift India's foreign policy too" rhetoric that is repeated by all politicians and babus. Pakis reaction is that "war is not good for business" -- push us and we will bring you war. That is a stalemate, and effectively moves us back to the mid 90s in terms of how pakistan deals with India -- granted all things are not the same in terms of context, which gives India more room. Summarily, the pakis have to be taught that they cannot game our behavior, which means behaving unpredictably to cause them pain without necessarily harming ourselves. Don't see that happening in the current context. Gen. Ata Hasnain's recent article points to people in the MoD who have leash on all the PR with respect to Pakistan, which needs to change for the Indian armed forces to move in a different direction than what has been gamed by the pakis.

One way to think about this:

"Gaming " and defeating the other guy's gaming efforts, are all at the tactical level. You can bluff but when you have to show the cards, the stronger hand will win, and there is nothing the weaker hand can do about it, after all the gaming and bluffing and counter-gaming and counter-bluffing is over.

Modi has been focusing on revealing India's strategic strengths: hardworking youthful population, stability, attractive and benevolent civilizational ethic, etc., and getting tremendous acknowledgement and response, in a way previous rulers, all ashamed of India at heart, have never done.

If countries of the world, even fairly uncivilized muslim countries like UAE are buying into this vision of India, implicitly it means that they will not be giving space to the exact opposite of that vision, which is represented by Pakistan. This is the laying down of the strategic cards that Modi is doing. In Dubai, Modi invited Pakistan to choose: lay down its cards or keep playing a bluffing game (Actually bluffing only themselves) with a poor hand. Maybe, just maybe, pakis will find the wisdom to make the right choice, this time. After all, it has never been presented to them in quite this way before, not even since the time of Mohd bin Qasim, I imagine.

It may be true that, in the process, there may be some tactical setbacks like the huriyat meeting (though that move is not yet played out, so we can't yet say it is a setback). Which, when it comes down to it, is just pakis doing a foolish face-saving act. Yes, I know there was a precedent last time for canceling the meeting, but let us say Modi, who is playing this game for the first time in centuries, is also learning through trial and error. Only brain-dead DIE media will grudge Modi the chance to learn and raise his game.

Any tactical setback won't matter if we (I should say Modi, because it seems no one, even his supporters, actually appreciate him) win the strategic game.

We don't know whether Modi will win or not, it will take many years to find out. But for now, it is a joy and a delight to see someone playing for India, after so many centuries. It makes me proud and I will keep watching captain Modi on the field.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 19 Aug 2015 22:55

What are the ramifications if we openly declare support for baloch independence movement?

Is anybody in for this?

I say lets do it. Time is right.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 19 Aug 2015 23:00

johneeG wrote:
KLNMurthy wrote:
Just want to point out that anyone wanting India to play the "Baloch card" should consider the human aspect in which Balochis are not just cards.

They are already getting massively tortured and murdered by paki army, despite there being some sort of lip service in paki political circles about doing justice to them. If India openly embraces the Balochis, there will be no end to the hell they will suffer at the hands of genocidal pakis. Demographically and geographically they are in a very different position than erstwhile east pakistanis in terms of fighting back. They are very much diluted with influx of pakhtuns etc, anyway they have a low population to start with. We are not in a position to save them the way we saved the east bengalis, and Iran is not going to intervene either.
If Lahore and Islamabad is under attack and the Pakistani army is busy in those areas, then it leaves the Balochis, Sindhis and Pakthoons to do whatever they want. So, Bhaarath is in a position to help them by mounting an attack on the main cities of Pakjab which are right at the border of Bhaarath.

Sure, pakis are famous for using tactical brilliance to turn a favorable or a neutral situation into a strategic disaster. We have to see how far they will alienate mohajirs and sindhis. For now, we should wait it out, or just stir the pot quietly.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Aug 2015 23:03

KLNM, Very perceptive. Bluff works in two person game but fails when its show time.
NaMo is playing different game.

UAE told in 1993, that India was playing wrong game by rules set by the game backers.

To give analogy, NaMo is playing the MB dice game with his own rules.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 19 Aug 2015 23:05

abhijitm wrote:What are the ramifications if we openly declare support for baloch independence movement?

Is anybody in for this?

I say lets do it. Time is right.

We should have done it yesterday only, saar.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 19 Aug 2015 23:19

A_GuptaJi, I need your insight. You have been quite eloquent in various fora in pointing out that US dept of treasury as well as UN had a narrative that implicated a Paki pigLeT Quazmi or whoever for the Samjotha express attack. Thanks to MMS/Sonia, they emphasized more the "Hindu terror" angle to that attack which TSP has seized gleefully with both hands and so have their 5th column in India and used as a stick to beat India with ever since 9especially since these talks were announced). This morning, on a TV interview, BJP spokesman Siddharth Nath Singh brought in the UN angle when Samjotha came up. To which Praveen prestitute Swami jumped and challenged Singh saying firstly, UN has said nothing, and second US dept of treasury did indeed issue that but has since withdrawn it, and furthermore, the prestitute true to his form asked sarcastically if there is grand conspiracy against BJP because Indian police, India law enforcement have indeed investigated and brought a case against Indian (Hindu) nationals. Your enlightening thoughts appreciated.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 19 Aug 2015 23:23

The Hindustan Times reports:
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-new ... 82045.aspx

South Block sources said that the NSA level meeting is not about “talks and terror”, but moving forward on “all issues related to terrorism”, as agreed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Pakistan counterpart Nawaz Sharif in the Russian city of Ufa in July.

On the issue of Aziz meeting Hurriyat, the officials said: “We reiterate that India-Pakistan issues are bilateral in nature and there is no role for any third party. Any deviation from this would mean the onus for continuing with the talks is with Pakistan. We are keen on seeing progress on the issue of terrorism.”

The sources reiterated that the “NSAs are meeting only on terrorism and not to discuss any issue, including Kashmir”. India had called off the foreign secretary level talks last year after Pakistan high commissioner Abdul Basit met Hurriyat leaders before talks. The sources said Pakistan “is free to bring up any issues related to terrorism.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 19 Aug 2015 23:27

Pretty clear that paki intent is to not be seen as the one cancelling talks, going by how they are inviting the hurriyat again, hoping the GoI will cancel talks this time too. This whole talks route with pakis is futile, as the paki army/govt. perceives that the cost of committing terrorism and nuiscance in India is low enough for the paki army to continue its shenanigans, and they also think the cost of escalation is something India cannot absorb. India will have boxed itself into a corner quite nicely, if it continues to be predictable in its reaction like it was during the MMS regime, which successfully boxed itself into a corner.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Aug 2015 23:34

CRS, have you noted ED director and a persistent Congress mole in IPS were both fired today.

Pravin Swami will also get what is due.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 19 Aug 2015 23:39

KLNMurthy wrote: n Dubai, Modi invited Pakistan to choose: lay down its cards or keep playing a bluffing game (Actually bluffing only themselves) with a poor hand. Maybe, just maybe, pakis will find the wisdom to make the right choice, this time. After all, it has never been presented to them in quite this way before, not even since the time of Mohd bin Qasim, I imagine.

Pakis are not going to make the right choice this time either -- this can be inferred by their reaction (like cancelling houbara hunting licenses) to the ME countries that supported them materially in the past decade, indicating that they have placed all their faith and trust in the Chinese, like they did with the Americans in the past.

KLNMurthy wrote: It may be true that, in the process, there may be some tactical setbacks like the huriyat meeting (though that move is not yet played out, so we can't yet say it is a setback). Which, when it comes down to it, is just pakis doing a foolish face-saving act. Yes, I know there was a precedent last time for canceling the meeting, but let us say Modi, who is playing this game for the first time in centuries, is also learning through trial and error. Only brain-dead DIE media will grudge Modi the chance to learn and raise his game.

The PM is definitely working on forging a different path, but he is constrained by his own larger policy goals for India and in that context, Pakistan is a much smaller problem, or at least this is being openly acknowledged whenever someone in the govt. says "India needs to stick to an 8% growth rate" -- and I am not disagreeing with any of these facts and constraints on the PM or the current govt./bureaucracy.

Legislation to kickstart the local economy is stalling due to a nuisance opposition that has no intention of being constructive, and delaying crucial policy changes, and this has provided the pakis with more breathing space, which is why they seem to be so cocksure that they can continue with their nuisance mongering and "nuclear flashpoint" bluffing. However, the tighter they embrace china, they will lose the support they get from their backers in West Asia and the USA, which is 2 out of four fathers.

I have no doubt that the PM and his team are resourceful (given that he has managed to rise up to be PM against all odds, for one thing) and will manage to do the right thing, but local politics is stopping India from gaining the strength required to gain more allies in the larger arena, and thus affect the overall picture.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 19 Aug 2015 23:50

CRamS wrote:A_GuptaJi, I need your insight. You have been quite eloquent in various fora in pointing out that US dept of treasury as well as UN had a narrative that implicated a Paki pigLeT Quazmi or whoever for the Samjotha express attack. Thanks to MMS/Sonia, they emphasized more the "Hindu terror" angle to that attack which TSP has seized gleefully with both hands and so have their 5th column in India and used as a stick to beat India with ever since 9especially since these talks were announced). This morning, on a TV interview, BJP spokesman Siddharth Nath Singh brought in the UN angle when Samjotha came up. To which Praveen prestitute Swami jumped and challenged Singh saying firstly, UN has said nothing, and second US dept of treasury did indeed issue that but has since withdrawn it, and furthermore, the prestitute true to his form asked sarcastically if there is grand conspiracy against BJP because Indian police, India law enforcement have indeed investigated and brought a case against Indian (Hindu) nationals. Your enlightening thoughts appreciated.

It is a big mystery to me. First some facts:

1. Arif Qasmani continues to be listed on the United Nations Security Council list.
e.g., http://www.un.org./sc/committees/1267/1267.htm

2. I'm unable to find any delisting of Qasmani on the US Dept. of Treasury site.

3. E.g, this Sept 30, 2014, Muhammad Naeem Sheikh is designated as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist, in part for contributing financially to Qasmani's Lashkar-e-Taiba cell.
http://www.treasury.gov/press-center/pr ... l2653.aspx
They'd have hardly mentioned that if Qasmani had been delisted.

4. Even if we discount Qasmani, there is the Washington Post story of one of David Headley's wives saying that she was innocently used in the plot to blow up the train.

In The Washington Post, May 11, 2010, Sebastian Rotella wrote:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 06271.html

“In a previously unreported tip just seven months before the Mumbai attacks, one of Headley’s ex-wives told U.S. officials overseas that she suspected he was linked to a 2007 bombing in India that killed 68 people and has been blamed on the Lashkar-e-Taiba militant group. She also warned that Headley was on a “special mission,” according to a senior anti-terror official. ”

“”She said Headley had been given a special mission and that he had both U.S. and Pakistani passports,” the senior anti-terror official said. “She said she felt she had been innocently used in an express train bombing” in India that had killed 68 people in 2007.”

Did she simply read the news and make up the story?

Second: some speculation

1. It is possible that the current accused Hindus also had a plot to blow up the train, obviously independent of the LeT. The train is bombed, and then, if the conspiracies were sufficiently compartmentalized, neither side knows whether it was themselves or not.

2. The whole Hindu angle is rubbish. Wouldn't Indian investigators find that out? Why pursue it then? It would have to be precisely because it serves the equal-equal purpose of blunting the issue of Paki terrorism. One would have to explain why Modi Sarkar doesn't put an end to this though; but maybe it is not worth spending the political capital.

3. I don't think the Americans would simply name some people in Pakistan in order to put pressure on Pakistan for some purpose; I think there are enough cases that having to make up one is not necesssary.

I think the most realistic chance of getting more info is if Wikileaks or some such gets us the basis on which the American actions were made. I doubt the GoI is going to make information available.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 19 Aug 2015 23:50

ramana wrote:KLNM, Very perceptive. Bluff works in two person game but fails when its show time.
NaMo is playing different game.

UAE told in 1993, that India was playing wrong game by rules set by the game backers.

To give analogy, NaMo is playing the MB dice game with his own rules.

In MB, Sakuni was manipulated by Krishna for the strategic goal of ending the Kauravas and cutting down the entire Kuru clan to size, as a way of ensuring a soft landing for kaliyuga. Tactical defeat in dice was required to cause the war in which kauravas, and everyone who was on their side, would be destroyed.

In Dubai, Modi laid down the challenge: choose your side, for terrorism or against. No soft options, no ambivalence. Whether message is heard or not, Modi's actions will be the same--pakiness will be isolated and ended.

Modi is human and not Krishna, and this is real life not MB. So the progress of the game will be more messy and outcome will be less certain.

The more I see of this man Modi, the more I come to believe that his enemies are right about him: he is a fundamentalist Hindu with a deep grasp of the fundamentals of his religion, and the worst enemy of secular forces.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 20 Aug 2015 00:00

I suspect there is another aspect that is being diligently suppressed by Modi sarkar: congis left India utterly broke and weapons-nude. It is whispered now and then but only in specialist circles. Clearly not something to advertise to investors or adversaries or even our own people but something that will constrain our actions quite a lot.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Aug 2015 00:01

A_Gupta, On the Indian side UPA game was to ban the Hindu organizations in India.
And not just blunt TSP terrorism angle. Don't forget they are equally venal.

member_28803 · Post by **member_28803** » 20 Aug 2015 00:25

ramana wrote:KLNM, Very perceptive. Bluff works in two person game but fails when its show time.
NaMo is playing different game.

UAE told in 1993, that India was playing wrong game by rules set by the game backers.

To give analogy, NaMo is playing the MB dice game with his own rules.

Ramanaji, Can you please expand on the bolded part? Not sure I understand what you are referring to. TIA!

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 20 Aug 2015 01:28

A_Gupta wrote:The Hindustan Times reports:
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-new ... 81996.aspx
Top general says pounding Pak posts to cause casualties

Pounding paki posts doesn't seem to be helping. Doesn't matter what the volume of fire is. This has gone on for far too long. India needs to change the game. The outskirts of lawhore and even Allama Iqbal airport would be within artillery range of the Indian border. If paki mortars kill our civilians. We shell lawhore from inside our territory for a few minutes and then move out all the guns to avoid getting hit by counter-battery fire. This will need planning of course but isn't impossible.

Being reactive has brought us nothing. We need to be unpredictable and even appear completely crazy. Otherwise we are just playing their game.

Abhay_S · Post by **Abhay_S** » 20 Aug 2015 01:29

http://www.dawn.com/news/1201503/modi-in-the-uae

INDIAN Prime Minister Modi’s visit to the UAE, and the joint communiqué issued afterwards, should be nothing less than a wake-up call for Pakistan. Both countries have agreed to enhance their economic cooperation and set specific targets, including bringing UAE investment into Indian infrastructure up to $75 billion and raising their bilateral trade by 60pc in five years. The communiqué also goes to some lengths to “condemn efforts, including by states, to use religion to justify, support and sponsor terrorism against other countries”, dilating upon this commitment with a specificity and sweep that almost betrays a sense of relish with which the words were written. The language is being widely interpreted to be pointed towards Pakistan.

By itself, the growing closeness between India and the UAE would be cause for little more than some alarm. But given the diplomatic moves under way in the region it highlights how the conduct of foreign policy is changing in profound ways. India has already received overtures from Iran for expanding its economic beachhead at Chabahar port, giving access to Iran and Afghanistan as well. It has obtained American support for its Look East policy, building a Trilateral Highway through Myanmar to Thailand, as well as greater connectivity with ASEAN countries. The main artery of the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) corridor is almost ready as an all-weather road, linking Yunnan province in China with West Bengal. In short, India is on the move in the region, keeping countries as diverse as the UAE, Iran, China and the United States on board as it spins a web of connectivity from the Middle East to Southeast Asia.

This should be enough to wake Pakistan’s foreign policy community up to the fact that their game has changed fundamentally. Lingering territorial disputes are no longer the driving force behind foreign policy. Instead, the foreign interests of states are now, more than ever before, viewed through an economic lens. States can be rivals in one sphere and partners in another. The game is no longer about pushing a single-agenda item, but the meticulous placement of pieces on an increasingly complex and interconnected chessboard. For Pakistan, remaining wedded to an old foreign policy template developed in the early Cold War years — which saw friends and masters in its search for a big brother who would help solve problems in return for a geopolitical alliance — is no longer a viable option. Maturity is the need of the hour in Pakistan’s foreign policy, as a thaw with Iran opens up opportunities to the west, and the possibility of building an economic partnership with India to the east — however remote it might seem at the moment — remains a viable foreign policy goal. It’s time to emerge from the old world, and recognise the changes happening in our region before it’s too late.

PS: If we are still benchmarking response time it is now 72 hrs

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 20 Aug 2015 02:04

Nachiket, on the micro-game - LoC Firing - agreed nothing has changed. But Abhay_S's find from the Dawn above, shows that at least one person in Pakistan gets that India has changed the overall game. It is unfortunate that likely nobody in Pakistan will be able to act on the insight, the institutional forces/interests that keep them doing the same thing over and over again cannot be easily overcome.

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 20 Aug 2015 02:08

ramana wrote:CRS, have you noted ED director and a persistent Congress mole in IPS were both fired today.
Pravin Swami will also get what is due.

ramana Ji :

Please advise Link.

TIA
Cheers

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 20 Aug 2015 02:25

Saw a couple of Paki talk shows that covered the Narendra Modi visit to UAE and what was said is:
-India is desperate to show more investments then pakistan as it got the $46 Billion from China.
-What India got is just a fund, while what pakistan got is actual investment
-India got $75 Billion while pakistan is 1/10 in economic size got $46 billion, so we are on top!!!!
-Gwadar is going to rock and will bring in prosperity which will bring 50 Billion each year into Pakistan every year!!!!
-Modi got nothing from UAE it is just PR work.
-How can UAE side with an anti-muslim Modi against a muslim country like Pakistan.

All in all the Anchors were desperate to generate sound bytes from their "experts" and even putting words into their mouth to say to the awaam that all is well

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 20 Aug 2015 02:25

ChristineFair wrote: The Obama administration asked me 2 B the DAS for South Asia. *I* declined so that I can keep on HOLLERING

Looks like the US SD offered CF a position to shut her up, and she wisely declined -- more power to her.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 20 Aug 2015 02:29

Vipul wrote: All in all the Anchors were desperate to generate sound bytes from their "experts" and even putting words into their mouth to say to the awaam that all is well

Seems to be on expected lines, the paki elite/Pak army's overriding interest is to lie to ensure that the hairy, illiterate hordes of citizens don't see the con job they are pulling. Not that I have any sympathy for the average India-hating paki oiseaule..they deserve each other.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 20 Aug 2015 02:44

Someone is doing predictive work here, not for Paki attacks on India; but for the probability of coups.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm? ... id=1531942

Abstract:
Examining onsets of political instability in countries worldwide from 1955 to 2003, we develop a model that distinguishes countries that experienced instability from those that remained stable with a two-year lead time and over 80% accuracy. Intriguingly, the model uses few variables and a simple specification. The model is accurate in forecasting the onsets of both violent civil wars and nonviolent democratic reversals, suggesting common factors in both types of change. Whereas regime type is typically measured using linear or binary indicators of democracy/ autocracy derived from the 21-point Polity scale, the model uses a nonlinear five-category measure of regime type based on the Polity components. This new measure of regime type emerges as the most powerful predictor of instability onsets, leading us to conclude that political institutions,properly specified, and not economic conditions, demography, or geography, are the most important predictors of the onset of political instability.

The estimates for 2015:
https://dartthrowingchimp.wordpress.com ... -for-2015/

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 20 Aug 2015 03:32

nachiket wrote:We shell lawhore from inside our territory for a few minutes and then move out all the guns to avoid getting hit by counter-battery fire. This will need planning of course but isn't impossible.

Being reactive has brought us nothing. We need to be unpredictable and even appear completely crazy. Otherwise we are just playing their game.

Yes, but that kind of escalation should be attempted iff we are willing to go the whole hog. If it spins out of control, we will have a mini-war on our hands at the wrong time. It goes against the principle of striking at the enemy with overwhelming force at a time and place of our choosing.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 20 Aug 2015 03:48

nachiket wrote:...
Being reactive has brought us nothing. We need to be unpredictable and even appear completely crazy. Otherwise we are just playing their game.

Buy the soosai services of the Greenwater types in Pakjab. Nothing ideological here. Totally transactional. Sort of like Uber for plausibly deniable activities.

RCase · Post by **RCase** » 20 Aug 2015 04:45

Cosmo_R wrote:[ Totally transactional. Sort of like Uber for plausibly deniable activities.

This will give ideas to all those IT techno whiz kids of Al-Bakistan to develop the next hot startup - Uber of IT (obviously in the Paki context!).

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 20 Aug 2015 05:18

Govt soothes Sangh fears

However, it was stressed that "enough and more" spadework had been done to ensure that Islamabad is not allowed to reset or veer away from the agenda.

Among the "assurances" given by high-level sources were the talks would take place before the high commissioner's reception, that the two exercises would be "de-linked" and the social event would not be "politicised".

The Sangh fraternity was also told that Doval would confine the dialogue to "all forms of terrorism" and not allow Aziz to raise Kashmir.

The word from the ruling establishment was that Doval would arm himself with "evidences" on the terrorists allegedly involved in last month's attack in Gurdaspur, Punjab, and on Mohammed Naved, the "Pakistani infiltrator" who reportedly ambushed a BSF convoy in Udhampur, Jammu, days later.

The NSA, sources said, would also bring up the "unprovoked" firing from across the border, infiltration and the alleged presence of militant training camps in Pakistan.

But "most importantly", they said, Doval would confront Aziz with "visual proof" that Mumbai blasts mastermind Dawood Ibrahim continued to live in Karachi under Pakistani "patronage".

Doval is expected to seek a "firm commitment" from Aziz that Dawood should be handed over to India.

shaardula · Post by **shaardula** » 20 Aug 2015 05:19

good riddance to really bad rubbish. i only hope he suffered and bore pain proportional to that which he inflicted on others. not much hope, i just wish. anyways dead and gone is dead and gone. may evil like that never return.

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 20 Aug 2015 05:43

I am not sure that Pakis meeting the Hurrirats is that big a deal. Basically there are two moves afoot. India wants to talk terror and Pakis want to talk Cashmere. The meeting the Hurrirats is an attempt to shift the dialog from terror to Cashmere.

The Hurrirats should also have some sense. During ABV time, it was pointed out to them that they are becoming irrelevant and they should join the electoral process. They threw in their lot with Pakis and refused to participate in elections. Leading to more irrelevance today. The problem they face is that the political space they vacated is being occupied by PDP and NC and Congress and BJP are battling it out for more "mainstream" votes in Jammu. Hurrirats are quickly losing relevance. They have to cling on to the Pakis because the Pakis never tire in saying that they consider Hurrirats to be the "true representatives of Cashmere" which is all bull. Good for soothing their ego, but bullsh1t nevertheless.

India can offer more candy to Hurrirats than Pakis can ever do. Maybe someone should make a business deal that they cannot refuse. It is only a matter of time before they see it and switch sides.

Nothing is going to come out of NSA level talks. Sartaj Aziz knows this well. Last time he was FM, Kargil happened and he knew that he controlled nothing. Same as today. He has no say over the terror machinery. After the container protests, the civvies have no control over vast swathes of the government, including terror, foreign policy, domestic security and international relations. Nawaz Sharif is the Mayor of Press conference in Isloo. Thats about it. To divert attention from this fact, Sataj Aziz is going to talk border shelling and Cashmere. What more can he do?

Maybe OT for this dhaaga, but did anyone see whats happening to Shanghai Stock market? Random farmers in China have borrowed 8x, 10x the money they have and bought stocks. Now the stock market has crashed. The number of retail stock investors in China is more than the membership of the Chinese communist party. The government is pumping in money now, asking brokers and government institutions to buy stocks. Wonder how much remaining money they have to flush down the Pakistan. If this keeps going on, they are going to demand increased guarantees, rates and conditions from their proposed 1000 beelliion treeelllion economic corridor investment in Pakiland.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 20 Aug 2015 07:11

Anujan wrote: To divert attention from this fact, Sartaj Aziz is going to talk border shelling and Cashmere. What more can he do?

He can say "I defect, and request asylum".

Well, you asked!

Oh, it was a rhetorical question!

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 20 Aug 2015 10:06

Guys, sections of DDM are reporting that the Harried rats have been put under house arrest. I think its a good move. The rats need to be shown their place. Will be interesting to see what TSP reaction will be.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 20 Aug 2015 10:16

India: Situation in Baluchistan is due to Pakistan’s faultlines; Samjhauta blasts and 26/11 case different - Aman Sharma, Economic Times

The situation in Baluchistan is due to Pakistan's faultlines and India has no interest in it, while the Samjhauta blasts case is headed for a conviction in a year's time and cannot be compared to the 26/11 case: This will be India's counter to Pakistan's two main agenda points for the NSA-level talks, along with a thick dossier and a swelled-up list of over 60 Indian fugitives.

Former intelligence bureau chief Asif Ibrahim — who was recently appointed special envoy to West Asia and Afg-Pakistan region {a la Holbrooke, eh?} — is compiling the dossier for the talks, a senior government official told ET.

Intelligence Bureau and Research and Analysis Wing have sent their inputs directly to Ibrahim while the home ministry compiled the inputs from the National Investigation Agency and forwarded them to Ibrahim's desk at National Security Council Secretariat in the Prime Minister's Office. NSA Ajit Doval, to whom Ibrahim reports, met home minister Rajnath Singh on Wednesday to discuss broad contours of the upcoming talks.

India hopes to pin Pakistani on Mohammad Naveed's disclosures. Naveed's interrogation report, a digest of which will be handed over to Pakistan, spells out his family's location at Rafiq Colony of Ghulam Mohammad Abad in Faisalabad.{Not enough proof for Pakistan}

Hafiz Saeed and some men, whom Naveed suspects to be Pakistani Army and ISI officers, visited his terror camp in Markazi Aksa near Shahabi Nala for motivation and tips on how to attack security forces, officials say citing his disclosures.

"There are nearly 25 LeT terrorists at this camp. They were shown Hafiz Saeed's virulent speeches for motivation... these public speeches will also be raised," an official said.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 20 Aug 2015 10:25

CRamS wrote:Guys, sections of DDM are reporting that the Harried rats have been put under house arrest. I think its a good move. The rats need to be shown their place. Will be interesting to see what TSP reaction will be.

Of course, Pakistan would cry 'murder of freedom of speech by a country which claims to be the largest democracy' etc. and newspapers like The Hindu and channels like NDTV, who are already sulking from the hanging of Yakub Memon and the notices sent by the I&B Ministry, will write evocative editorials and conduct panel discussions condemning Modi of a high-handed behaviour.

But, if they are arrested, that is the right way to handle. There were two options open to GoI. Allow the Kashmiri jihadi terrorists to meet Sartaj Aziz and then call-off the talks on that pretext with Sartaj Aziz still at New Delhi. The other was preventive detention. By resorting to the latter, GoI has shown that it is keen to engage with Pakistan while still standing by its principled stand of 'no talks if the Kashmiri jihadi terrorists meet the Pakistanis'.

Allowing the talks after the meeting between the two sets of terrorists at the Pakistni den of terrorism that goes by the name of High Commission, was simply untenable whatever justification is proffered.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 20 Aug 2015 10:31

vayu tuvan wrote:
nachiket wrote:We shell lawhore from inside our territory for a few minutes and then move out all the guns to avoid getting hit by counter-battery fire. This will need planning of course but isn't impossible.

Being reactive has brought us nothing. We need to be unpredictable and even appear completely crazy. Otherwise we are just playing their game.
Yes, but that kind of escalation should be attempted iff we are willing to go the whole hog. If it spins out of control, we will have a mini-war on our hands at the wrong time. It goes against the principle of striking at the enemy with overwhelming force at a time and place of our choosing.

Yes that is where the C-system sabotage comes in, from converting M-2000-5 buy to MMRCA, to stop Denel 155mm upg, Delaying Nalanda indigenous production of 155mm shells, and million other