India-Russia: News & Analysis

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Sep 2015 20:05

Nations have interests.

I think the die has been cast WRT Indo-Russia. There is not much out there to recover from. IF Russia and China had managed to dilute the text it would have been worse. That they both are working to remove/replace the US person should be another indicator.

But, good. This should make India really independent now.

On Paki-Russo. There is that little thing called funds. Russia needs them - badly. Short term thinking, but a necessary one for Russia.

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 18 Sep 2015 20:07

Karan M wrote:And pigs will fly..
Pakistan will claim it has been in negotiation for the F-22 as well.
Beggars can't even afford the J-10 and suddenly they'll buy the Su-35.

Pakistan is desperate to do a equal-equal with India after loosing out on US support to India so they would love nothing better then showing off to India that its former ally Russia is now in its camp. For H&D reasons and to have the huge impact of having an aircraft better then the mainstay and frontline plane of IAF(SU-30) they will come up with the money somehow for 16-24 planes if Russia is willing to sell and risk this plane/technology going to china.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 18 Sep 2015 20:13

The Chances of Paki buying Su-35 is as good as India buying F-22

After long negotiation the only system they managed to buy are 4 Mi-35M

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 18 Sep 2015 20:18

^^From the link above by Austin

However, in the highly unlikely scenario that the Su-35 wears Pakistani colours, Russia can say goodbye to its largest buyer. Although Russia was the second largest arms exporter in the world during the period 2010-14, it was less diversified than the US. According to SIPRI, “Three countries; India, China and Algeria; accounted for almost 60 per cent of total Russian exports.” India alone accounted for 39 per cent.

In contrast, the US which led with 31 per cent, had Korea as its top buyer at just 9 per cent. The US therefore had a better spread than Russia.

So without India, Russia’s arms exports will atrophy. And although the likes of Algeria, Indonesia and Malaysia continue to be steady buyers of Russian weapons, the flows to these countries are a trickle rather than a torrent. No country offers Russia such a long-term market as India.

Is the Russian bear penny wise pound foolish? Narendra Modi should read out the riot act to the Ruskies when he vistits Russia later this year. IAF wants to test ride the PAK-FA. India wants to check if the millions of dollars they have spent on the design so far is worth it and to check if it just being sold a lemon now.The russian buggers are now dilly-dallying on allowing it so most likely there are problems with program and they just want more money from India which they can then spend to perfect it.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Sep 2015 20:55

^^^^^

I am not too sure, but I doubt that Indian funds are responsible for the PAK-FA. What I can buy is that Indian funds would be needed for further progress, but without Indian participation.

After long negotiation the only system they managed to buy are 4 Mi-35M

Only because Pakistan was able to prove they had monies for 4. Russia would have sold them more if there were funds out there.

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 18 Sep 2015 21:04

If the Indians have an iota of common sense and national pride, they would get off the PAK-FA wagon and focus on the LCA/AMCA aircraft.

How long can you stop nations from selling to Pak. Heck if they want to and Pakis can pay, we should let them. Let the Pakis also suffer from low availability of Russian hardware. Pukistan will go bust trying to keep the Russian planes flying.

This is the best gift that Russia can give to India.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Sep 2015 21:13

Well, it seems it is really worse than that.

IF it is true that Indians are facing problems just checking out the PAK-FA, test flying it, then imagine how bad the situation is.

What is wrong, I have no clue, but that something is certainly up is for sure.

Secondly, I doubt that the Russians want to sell. Their primary interest is Indian funds. Diff between the two.

Again, not a knock, that is how nations at times behave.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 18 Sep 2015 21:41

India wants to check if the millions of dollars they have spent on the design so far is worth it and to check if it just being sold a lemon now.The russian buggers are now dilly-dallying on allowing it so most likely there are problems with program and they just want more money from India which they can then spend to perfect it.

There is a contradiction here. If PAK-FA were a lemon, why would Russia want more funds to perfect it suddenly? India should have participated and financed the offer as it is a top of the line 5th Gen fighter jet and no other country was made such offer.

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 18 Sep 2015 21:53

^^^^^ Confused by your post Vishwak

There is a contradiction here. If PAK-FA were a lemon, why would Russia want more funds to perfect it suddenly?

Not sure what you're trying to say. If PAK-FA is underperforming, Russia would seek funds to try to improve it. What is the contradiction?

India should have participated and financed the offer as it is a top of the line 5th Gen fighter jet and no other country was made such offer.

How did you decide it was a top of the line fighter? Because Russia was making it?

Good time to step off and look at your own abilities. No one will give this type of capability away. Make your own!!

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 18 Sep 2015 22:07

The funds were not for improving underperformance, but were step by step development. If there were issues, that would reflect, too. Not ignoring making our own, however participating in 5th Gen fighter jet project was a chance that no other country had. That says a lot by itself.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Sep 2015 22:15

There is a contradiction here. If PAK-FA were a lemon, why would Russia want more funds to perfect it suddenly?

No matter what, to complete a project one needs funds. The question typically is whose funds, mine or yours. If yours what can I provide as security? India is not buying the PAK-FA as security. Loss of trust for some reason. Perhaps it is not as good as advertised is my bet.

The last time Indians were shown the plane it caught fire.

Long way to go. And, someone wants to check things off before modi lands in Moscow. A plane is not something to tick Mark.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 18 Sep 2015 22:31

That says a lot by itself.

It should. But does it?

Considering Indians have been requesting a closer look at what they are funding/buying for years now.

Something is wrong here. Does not look good.

Modi bought 36 from France. Doubt he will buy any here.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 18 Sep 2015 23:11

I don't have luxury of betting with confidence because of F-35 and nothing else. Russia is obviously suffering from -and corresponding from time elapsed in development- collapse of USSR. However, going by experience Su-35MKI, there is enough to put confidence in Russian plans considering that Su-30MKI is one of the best, if not THE BEST, 4++ Gen fighter jet. The confidence will increase as planned AMCA development begins.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 18 Sep 2015 23:22

Vipul wrote:
Karan M wrote:And pigs will fly..
Pakistan will claim it has been in negotiation for the F-22 as well.
Beggars can't even afford the J-10 and suddenly they'll buy the Su-35.
Pakistan is desperate to do a equal-equal with India after loosing out on US support to India so they would love nothing better then showing off to India that its former ally Russia is now in its camp. For H&D reasons and to have the huge impact of having an aircraft better then the mainstay and frontline plane of IAF(SU-30) they will come up with the money somehow for 16-24 planes if Russia is willing to sell and risk this plane/technology going to china.

That is perhaps the most illogical thing I have read all day. Do you think Pak has not been trying to do an equal equal with India from the day of its existence?
Where has Pak lost out on US support? It continues to fly F-16s and get sniper pods and jeeps and what not.
It can't even afford JF-17s on its own and needed PRC to finance them.

And why will Russia sell 16-24 aircraft to Pakistan, when they have the potential of several hundred upgraded Su-30s with India plus another couple of hundred FGFAs? Its one thing to dislike Russia for whatever reason etc or even be upset at their double dealing on the UN deal (if that report is true) but none of that translates to the leaps of logic you are making here.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 18 Sep 2015 23:26

Vipul wrote:^^From the link above by Austin

However, in the highly unlikely scenario that the Su-35 wears Pakistani colours, Russia can say goodbye to its largest buyer. Although Russia was the second largest arms exporter in the world during the period 2010-14, it was less diversified than the US. According to SIPRI, “Three countries; India, China and Algeria; accounted for almost 60 per cent of total Russian exports.” India alone accounted for 39 per cent.

In contrast, the US which led with 31 per cent, had Korea as its top buyer at just 9 per cent. The US therefore had a better spread than Russia.

So without India, Russia’s arms exports will atrophy. And although the likes of Algeria, Indonesia and Malaysia continue to be steady buyers of Russian weapons, the flows to these countries are a trickle rather than a torrent. No country offers Russia such a long-term market as India.
Is the Russian bear penny wise pound foolish? Narendra Modi should read out the riot act to the Ruskies when he vistits Russia later this year. IAF wants to test ride the PAK-FA. India wants to check if the millions of dollars they have spent on the design so far is worth it and to check if it just being sold a lemon now.The russian buggers are now dilly-dallying on allowing it so most likely there are problems with program and they just want more money from India which they can then spend to perfect it.

You have the data here yourself to show the kind of kiteflying that so called report of Su-35s to Pakistan was all about.

This is a typical Pakistani ploy from time immemorial.

Pakistan always talks big, pretends that everyone is in its camp, is negotiating with all those who are time tested Indian suppliers etc. Its all about creating an image locally that all iz well and Pakistan is India's equal.

In reality, nothing changes.

In all likelihood if the UN report is true, that's what NaMo will be direct about, or even JF-17 engines to Pakistan. Not Su-35 wagehra which everyone knows is a big farce.

KrishnaK · Post by **KrishnaK** » 19 Sep 2015 02:07

Philip wrote: We had this leverage when we were the acknowledged leaders of the NAM

dsreedhar · Post by **dsreedhar** » 19 Sep 2015 06:59

We should not get paranoid about the changing situation but should pay attention and be cautious. There are some hints of tilt of Russia. They are desperate and going thru some tough times. They will try to play game and will do whatever is necessary to further their nation interest and also project and maintain their status of power.

arun · Post by **arun** » 19 Sep 2015 08:00

Russia steadily moves up the escalatory ladder of working against India’s interest regards the Islamic Republic of Pakistan:

First, Dual civilian/military use Helicopter => Mi 17

Then, Military Components for Fighter Aircraft => RD-93 Engines for the JF-17 fighter

Thereafter, Military use Helicopter => Mi-35 Attack Helicopters

Next possibly, complete Fighter Aircraft => Su-35 Fighters (?)

dsreedhar · Post by **dsreedhar** » 19 Sep 2015 08:45

Russia's economy in shambles. Let it sell its mediocre defense stuff to Pak and get the money it needs. India is a huge country with huge appetite for resources. Indian corporate world should look into opportunities to tap the resources in Russia and try to establish its hold in Russia's economy in a mutually beneficial way.

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 19 Sep 2015 09:05

From history -

"How Russia prevented a joint US-UK attack on India in 1971"

http://www.defencenews.in/defence-news- ... ZDbdMJQ%3D

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Sep 2015 09:37

Karan M wrote:And why will Russia sell 16-24 aircraft to Pakistan, when they have the potential of several hundred upgraded Su-30s with India plus another couple of hundred FGFAs? Its one thing to dislike Russia for whatever reason etc or even be upset at their double dealing on the UN deal (if that report is true) but none of that translates to the leaps of logic you are making here.

The most funny part of the argument is our Friends are crying over hypothetical Su-35 deal but forget how are Baki Brather was aided in Military Aid of USD $ 31 Billion from 2002-2016

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/pakaid.pdf

I dont think our entire Arms Import during that period is even reached that figure , Jai Ho !

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Sep 2015 09:44

"Semiotics" was released in the Indian market for microarray analysis of blood and plasma donors

Portfolio companies RVC Biofund "semiotics" signed with the Indian company Yashraj Biotechnology Ltd., a member of the top 20 Indian pharmaceutical market, an agreement to supply the research of carbohydrate microarray (glikochip) for the quantitative determination of glycan-binding proteins.

Glikochip "semiotics", is a thin plate made of plastic, contains built up over 30 years, the library of polysaccharides (glycans). The chip 600 can be positioned to glycans, and with their help diagnose a hundred diseases. In particular, it can be used for the diagnosis of infectious diseases, autoimmune diseases and cancer.

The study, conducted by experts of the Indian company Yashraj Biotechnology Ltd. via glikochipa "Semioticians" containing 400 glycans was found that two of the seven antibodies specifically bind carbohydrate ligands. These data open perspective focused bioengineering new antibodies intended for the diagnosis and therapy of malignant tumors.

The concept of a unique microchip was born and developed in the Institute of Bioorganic Chemistry RAS Shemyakin-Ovchinnikov laboratory team carbohydrates in conjunction with New York University (New York University), which assists in the conduct of clinical studies, certification and licensing of the microchip for the market of Russia, CIS and the United States.

Today microchips "semiotics" is already used by several scientific and medical centers in Russia, Switzerland, Spain, Bulgaria and the USA.

"For example, cooperation with Yashraj Biotechnology Ltd. we see demand glikochipovoy platform developed "semiotics" to solve complex research problems to find diagnostic biomarkers not only in Russia but also abroad ", - said Egor Beketov, CEO of RVC Biofund.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 19 Sep 2015 12:19

Ironic how almost all of Pak's entire cutting edge mil tech is American,from F-16s,P-3Orions,Harpoon missiles,etc. plus billions in mil/civil aid even as of now,and rumours of mil sales by Russia turn it into an 'enemy" of India.Such baseless propaganda by US fans,akin to Snake-Oil Singh,fool few if any. This xcpt. from the 71 War history (Austin) is revealing.US attitude to India hasn't changed very much except that it now wants us to be its frontline cannon fodder against China!

Standing between the Indian cities and the American ships was the Indian Navy’s Eastern Fleet led by the 20,000-ton aircraft carrier, Vikrant, with barely 20 light fighter aircraft. When asked if India’s Eastern Fleet would take on the Seventh Fleet, the Flag Officer Commanding-in-Chief, Vice Admiral N. Krishnan, said: “Just give us the orders.” The Indian Air Force, having wiped out the Pakistani Air Force within the first week of the war, was reported to be on alert for any possible intervention by aircraft from the Enterprise.

Meanwhile, Soviet intelligence reported that a British naval group led by the aircraft carrier Eagle had moved closer to India’s territorial waters. This was perhaps one of the most ironic events in modern history where the Western world’s two leading democracies were threatening the world’s largest democracy in order to protect the perpetrators of the largest genocide since the Holocaust in Nazi Germany. However, India did not panic. It quietly sent Moscow a request to activate a secret provision of the Indo-Soviet security treaty, under which Russia was bound to defend India in case of any external aggression.

The British and the Americans had planned a coordinated pincer to intimidate India: while the British ships in the Arabian Sea would target India’s western coast, the Americans would make a dash into the Bay of Bengal in the east where 100,000 Pakistani troops were caught between the advancing Indian troops and the sea.

To counter this two-pronged British-American threat, Russia dispatched a nuclear-armed flotilla from Vladivostok on December 13 under the overall command of Admiral Vladimir Kruglyakov, the Commander of the 10th Operative Battle Group (Pacific Fleet). Though the Russian fleet comprised a good number of nuclear-armed ships and atomic submarines, their missiles were of limited range (less than 300 km). Hence to effectively counter the British and American fleets the Russian commanders had to undertake the risk of encircling them to bring them within their target. This they did with military precision.

In an interview to a Russian TV programme after his retirement, Admiral Kruglyakov, who commanded the Pacific Fleet from 1970 to 1975, recalled that Moscow ordered the Russian ships to prevent the Americans and British from getting closer to “Indian military objects”. The genial Kruglyakov added: “The Chief Commander’s order was that our submarines should surface when the Americans appear. It was done to demonstrate to them that we had nuclear submarines in the Indian Ocean. So when our subs surfaced, they recognised us. In the way of the American Navy stood the Soviet cruisers, destroyers and atomic submarines equipped with anti-ship missiles. We encircled them and trained our missiles at the Enterprise. We blocked them and did not allow them to close in on Karachi, Chittagong or Dhaka."

At this point, the Russians intercepted a communication from the commander of the British carrier battle group, Admiral Dimon Gordon, to the Seventh Fleet commander: “Sir, we are too late. There are the Russian atomic submarines here, and a big collection of battleships.” The British ships fled towards Madagascar while the larger US task force stopped before entering the Bay of Bengal.

The Russian manoeuvres clearly helped prevent a direct clash between India and the US-UK combine. Newly declassified documents reveal that the Indian Prime Minister went ahead with her plan to liberate Bangladesh despite inputs that the Americans had kept three battalions of Marines on standby to deter India, and that the American aircraft carrier USS Enterprise had orders to target the Indian Army, which had broken through the Pakistani Army’s defences and was thundering down the highway to the gates of Lahore, West Pakistan’s second largest city.

According to a six-page note prepared by India's foreign ministry, "The bomber force aboard the Enterprise had the US President's authority to undertake bombing of the Indian Army's communications, if necessary."

Multatuli · Post by **Multatuli** » 19 Sep 2015 13:04

Karan M wrote

That is perhaps the most illogical thing I have read all day. Do you think Pak has not been trying to do an equal equal with India from the day of its existence?

Where has Pak lost out on US support? It continues to fly F-16s and get sniper pods and jeeps and what not.
It can't even afford JF-17s on its own and needed PRC to finance them.

And why will Russia sell 16-24 aircraft to Pakistan, when they have the potential of several hundred upgraded Su-30s with India plus another couple of hundred FGFAs? Its one thing to dislike Russia for whatever reason etc or even be upset at their double dealing on the UN deal (if that report is true) but none of that translates to the leaps of logic you are making here.

Thank you for pointing out the obvious and infusing sanity in the discussion. I think the Vipul's comments in the original article he posted were quite offensive. Mind you, I am not a Roos bhakt, I just don't like that kind of language, and certainly not inserted in the original article.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 19 Sep 2015 13:36

Philip wrote:Ironic how almost all of Pak's entire cutting edge mil tech is American,from F-16s,P-3Orions,Harpoon missiles,etc. plus billions in mil/civil aid even as of now,and rumours of mil sales by Russia turn it into an 'enemy" of India.Such baseless propaganda by US fans,akin to Snake-Oil Singh,fool few if any. This xcpt. from the 71 War history (Austin) is revealing.US attitude to India hasn't changed very much except that it now wants us to be its frontline cannon fodder against China!

The differences with 1971 are glaringly obvious -

- Pakistan had rejected Soviet overtures before 1970 -> it has wholehearted embraced Russian ones now.
- US had managed to corral the PRC into its sphere -> the PRC is a strategic rival and soon-to-be equal of the US today.
- Pakistan relations with US were at their peak -> relations with the US today are rock-bottom with the ~~extortion~~ aid stream close to expiry.
- The PRC & USSR had just got done fighting a border conflict -> today their border disputes have been long resolved and strategic ties are closer than ever in the wake of Western sanctions.

The implications too ought to be obvious to those who's judgement isn't clouded by sentiment and nostalgia.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 19 Sep 2015 13:43

Austin,

Good find. The the non sentimental kind need to look at this.

Military Aid of USD $ 31 Billion from 2002-2016

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/pakaid.pdf

Something Amreeka rakshaks on bharat rakshak try to downplay.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Sep 2015 13:43

I suspect some private company might just build this in india or may be HAL itself as they are scouting for Indian companies and manufacturing base

Sukhoi Superjet-100 may be produced in India

“We came to India to see what we could do within the country’s ‘Make in India’ program, in terms of the (SSJ100) project. Moreover, our experts have already visited several Indian companies for an audit of their technological capabilities, and they were pleasantly surprised by the levels they saw,” said Mr. Slyusar.

He noted that the SSJ100 – “is a world-class product, and it is possible to produce it in enterprises in India, which are quite competitive, in terms of technology and costs.”

At recent JetExpo-2015 they have presented a business version of Superjet ( Pictures )

http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/67943/

Some photo report on Superjet

http://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/67574/

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 19 Sep 2015 13:47

ramana wrote:KaranM, Between 1965 and 1970 FSU courted TSP thinking of weaning it from US. Found hard way won't happen. Same way Russia is trying to find some space for itself.
So don't rule out anything.

The numbers don't bear out any serious rapprochement between Russia and Pakistan. The Russians wouldn't be illogical enough to supply 2 squadrons of Su-35s and jeopardize over 4 dozen squadrons worth of Su-30/FGFA upgrades/purchases by India. In the same vein, the Pakistanis can't even buy peanuts on their own. Even their JF-17s were financed by PRC. Right now Russia is trying to court PRC and India together. With NaMo at helm, I bet they will find India is no longer a chalta hain customer who can be ignored either. If the UN report is true, they committed a grave miscalculation, this Govt is not like MMSs; it will stand up strongly for India's interests. I bet Putin will be given a strong message when Modi meets him.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 19 Sep 2015 15:31

Will the military aid continue after the Americans withdraw from the AfPak? If not, then foreign policy circa 2016-2030 will adapt to that (a process that's continuing under the current govt) as the threat from China continues to grow. The Russian outreach is driven at least partially by the realisation that there's a break coming which will result in a power vacuum (albeit filled mostly by China).

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Sep 2015 17:27

US provided Aid to Pakistan even before US was in AFPAK , Paki-US relation are very institutional which every Paki Army chief making a visit to to Pentagon and DC to take their blessing and if Wikileaks revelation shows openly discussing to take over Democratic Government with US Diplomat.

Pak are very useful to US ,first and foremost to Contain India Rise beyond what DC is comfortable with and to maintain a control over Afghanistan via its proxy Good Talibunny to deter CIS using the space in Afghanistan post US withdrawl

Pakistan was not even punished for hiding OBL right besides its Army Estb

cant imagine any country getting away with so much of Brazenness ( Oh yes ofcourse they didnt knew he was there )

All now Paki has to do is to get hold of some Tallibunny the US wants from Haqani or other network and hand over to them and streamline their funding

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 19 Sep 2015 17:32

Multatuliji my post is not without reason. My post are in context of a series of Russian perfidies which ofcourse the Natasha loving Russian fan-boys will try to ignore or gloss over. Why they even want India not to pursue its interests and try to be a pacifist power following Russian diktats (NAM argument above was such a lame and comic one

)

i) Signing the TOT for T-90 Tanks with India and then refusing to transfer the technology to make barrels.
ii) The wanton blackmailing and extortion of triple the amount committed by India for buying the Gorshkov
iii) Trying to sell sub optimally performing KLUB missiles to India and rectifying issues only after Indian Navy refused to take delivery.
iv) Upset at loosing the kilo class refit business to Indian ship yard how Russians intentionally mismanaged the INS Sindhukirti upgrade in India and over 9 years made the Indian shipyard do several multiples of the work then normally would have been done at a Russian shipyard. This while they were supposed to "supervise the work" for the upgrade.
iv) The PAK FA/FGFA saga where Russians agreed to do a 50-50 development role for India and then after taking the Indian Money for design phase unilaterally reducing India share from 50% to 26% and now 13% which will further go down by the time India takes delivery (if it happens and i hope it does not).

I am sure there are other instances which i am not recollecting now while i am writing this post. If admins find my my post offensive then my apologies.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 19 Sep 2015 18:20

Austin wrote:US provided Aid to Pakistan even before US was in AFPAK , Paki-US relation are very institutional which every Paki Army chief making a visit to to Pentagon and DC to take their blessing and if Wikileaks revelation shows openly discussing to take over Democratic Government with US Diplomat.

Pak are very useful to US ,first and foremost to Contain India Rise beyond what DC is comfortable with and to maintain a control over Afghanistan via its proxy Good Talibunny to deter CIS using the space in Afghanistan post US withdrawl

US sanctions were lifted after 9/11, when the Afghan campaign begun. Between 1991 (Pressler Amendment) and 2001 even economic aid was minuscule.

World events have proceeded well past the point where 'containing' India was a feasible plan. Given the pace of Chinese modernisation (both military and economic), and the (relative) decline of the US, there's no question of containing India. This isn't an idea one hears expressed anywhere but BRF (where too its been losing currency).

Pakistan was not even punished for hiding OBL right besides its Army Estb cant imagine any country getting away with so much of Brazenness ( Oh yes ofcourse they didnt knew he was there )

All now Paki has to do is to get hold of some Tallibunny the US wants from Haqani or other network and hand over to them and streamline their funding

Precisely. There is no love lost between the two. Whatever support that exists, exists because supplies for 10,000 US troops are still shipped in through Karachi. Unlike the retiring old guard (like Raphel), the new lot esp. at the DoD pretty much despises them. But even they can't afford to be sentimental about it.

Afghanistan is a write-off as a strategic outpost. All they're looking for now, is an honourable exit. The residual power in Central Asia is up for the grabs, with China looking dominant. The Russians know this better than anybody else, hence the effort to secure their position in the region, with their new outreach to Pakistan. Makes sense for Pakistan too. With US leaving (and taking its support with them), bolstering ties with Russia is a ideal hedge against their current over-dependence on China.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Sep 2015 18:41

Viv S wrote:US sanctions were lifted after 9/11, when the Afghan campaign begun. Between 1991 (Pressler Amendment) and 2001 even economic aid was minuscule.

It was lifted because of DC desire for equal equal to India , when DC realised India military power was growing and had to prop pakistan to contain its growth , Who Pays $31 billion dollar to fight Tallibunny an organisation in the first place built and sustained by Pakis

World events have proceeded well past the point where 'containing' India was a feasible plan. Given the pace of Chinese modernisation (both military and economic), and the (relative) decline of the US, there's no question of containing India.

Containment is the primary policy of US , its not restricted to India alone , US contained USSR in its own way , India via Pakistan during Cold war and now and China via India , US would definitely contain India and Paki are most useful in that role.

Dont equate US desire to contain China using India as Indian Desire to be a US poodle , US wants India much like US wants Pakistan , India is not in the game and can deal with China in its own way

Precisely. There is no love lost between the two. Whatever support that exists, exists because supplies for 10,000 US troops still come are still shipped in through Karachi. Unlike the retiring old guard (like Raphel), the new lot esp. at the DoD pretty much despises them. But even they can't afford to be sentimental about it.

The reason would always exisit , Post US exit Pakistan would be US Chaukdar to manage the Afghanistan and money would flow , Infact that is the idea of Good Talib managed by Paki

Afghanistan is a write-off as a strategic outpost. All they're looking for now, is an honourable exit. The residual power in Central Asia is up for the grabs, with China looking dominant. The Russians know this better than anybody else, hence the effort to secure their position in the region, with their new outreach to Pakistan. Makes sense for Pakistan too. With US leaving (and taking its support with them), bolstering ties with Russia is a ideal hedge against their current over-dependence on China.

If Afghanistan was a write off US would not have stayed for 15 years , They would be there in small numbers and would like Paki manage the show

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 19 Sep 2015 19:05

Austin wrote:It was lifted because of DC desire for equal equal to India , when DC realised India military power was growing and had to prop pakistan to contain its growth , Who Pays $31 billion dollar to fight Tallibunny an organisation in the first place built and sustained by Pakis

In which case, it would have lifted sanctions only from Pakistan.

The cost of the US war in Afghanistan has been about $1 trillion. $31bn is a mere 3% of that.

Containment is the primary policy of US , its not restricted to India alone , US contained USSR in its own way , India via Pakistan during Cold war and now and China via India , US would definitely contain India and Paki are most useful in that role.

Dont equate US desire to contain China using India as Indian Desire to be a US poodle , US wants India much like US wants Pakistan , India is not in the game and can deal with China in its own way

You're alleging a secret conspiracy theory when much simpler explanations for already exist and are widely accepted. Are the Americans worried about being a poodle to India or Japan? Why shouldn't we be similarly confident in our capabilities, as far as protect our national interest is concerned?

And yes we'll deal with China in our own way. And 'our own way' includes decisions such as restarting a multilateral Malabar exercise, starting new annual exercises with Japan & Australia, while strengthening ties with the US & Vietnam.

The reason would always exisit , Post US exit Pakistan would be US Chaukdar to manage the Afghanistan and money would flow , Infact that is the idea of Good Talib

If Afghanistan was a write off US would not have stayed for 15 years , They would be there in small numbers and would like Paki manage the show

They've stayed for 15 years trying to salvage something from the mess, one that was supposed to be the 'good war' (as opposed the 'dirty war' in Iraq). Afghanistan however still remains a basketcase and unlike China & Russia, a maritime power like the US is paying a steep price for accessibility. And they're more than happy to let the Chinese and Russians borrow their headache in the AfPak region.

China Has a Plan to Take Over Central Asia — and America Loves It

As for Russia, its concerns have long been that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor represents the southern flank of Beijing’s takeover of all of Central Asia, an increasingly important energy market for Moscow since the Ukraine crisis disrupted ties with Eastern Europe. While that’s bad for Russian President Vladimir Putin, it fits squarely into American objectives to break the Kremlin’s grip on the Central Asian economies.

“It’s been a long-term U.S. objective to wean Central Asia off its dependence on Russia and give the Central Asian states a wider set of security and economic relationships,” said Small in an interview. “Preferably that would’ve been the Europeans and Americans, but the specific objective of balancing Russia’s role in Central Asia is something China is doing to the benefit of the autonomy of some of the states of the region.”

KrishnaK · Post by **KrishnaK** » 21 Sep 2015 05:55

Philip wrote: According to a six-page note prepared by India's foreign ministry, "The bomber force aboard the Enterprise had the US President's authority to undertake bombing of the Indian Army's communications, if necessary.

From http://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/frus ... /48539.htm

Kissinger: Well because I think once the news of that hits there’ll be so many people screaming we’re [there] for intervention. And then we have to explain what we will never do.

Kissinger: He would do everything that I recommend, except moving the carrier because he thinks it might be a political liability. He’d move the helicopters there.
Nixon: Why does he think the carrier is a political liability?
Kissinger: Because he thinks people will then ask, "Are we going to intervene militarily?" And that, he thinks, is not feasible.
Nixon: I know, but we’re not going to intervene. What does it mean?

All of this from the same document where they talk of committing acts illegal under US laws and getting the Chinese to intervene. A lot of that article is hot air.

TSJones · Post by **TSJones** » 21 Sep 2015 06:22

Austin wrote: The most funny part of the argument is our Friends are crying over hypothetical Su-35 deal but forget how are Baki Brather was aided in Military Aid of USD $ 31 Billion from 2002-2016

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/pakaid.pdf

I dont think our entire Arms Import during that period is even reached that figure , Jai Ho !

also funny is your selective interpretation of the link that you provided.

There was $7.6 billion security related.

the rest of it appears to related to economic aid such as child medical and diet, disaster relief due to earth quake, floods, and conditional payments by the pentagon for things like internal anti-terrorists operations.

I would note that the US operations would not have been possible w/o Pakistan permitting US logistical access.

We also made payments to Russia(yes, we used the Russian railway system at times, as well as ports of entry) and the 'stans north of Afghanistan for logistical access.

They *all* got the money. Not just Pakistan.

deWalker · Post by **deWalker** » 21 Sep 2015 08:42

TSJones wrote:
also funny is your selective interpretation of the link that you provided.

There was $7.6 billion security related.

the rest of it appears to related to economic aid such as child medical and diet, disaster relief due to earth quake, floods, and conditional payments by the pentagon for things like internal anti-terrorists operations.

Outside of quake relief, which is an unanticipated event, all other aid money just allows Pakistan to shift monies from their own domestic responsibilities to defense / terror spending. I've never understood how we can compartmentalize aid, in the end it is money and it is fungible in purpose.

They *all* got the money. Not just Pakistan.

But the others aren't spending money on "state actors" and "non-state actors" w.r.t India.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Sep 2015 08:51

Karan M wrote:Austin,

Good find. The the non sentimental kind need to look at this.

Military Aid of USD $ 31 Billion from 2002-2016

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/pakaid.pdf

Something Amreeka rakshaks on bharat rakshak try to downplay.

Actually, I provided that link to Austin in another thread. No one is trying to downplay the duplicity of unkil here. At the same time you can not sugar coat that Russia is a corrupt kleptocracy (Putin's inner circle has a net worth of $200 billion) that is a white Christian country where its people desire to integrate with the rest of Europe. India is far from their minds.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Sep 2015 08:57

TSJones wrote: also funny is your selective interpretation of the link that you provided.

There was $7.6 billion security related.

the rest of it appears to related to economic aid such as child medical and diet, disaster relief due to earth quake, floods, and conditional payments by the pentagon for things like internal anti-terrorists operations.

I would note that the US operations would not have been possible w/o Pakistan permitting US logistical access.

We also made payments to Russia(yes, we used the Russian railway system at times, as well as ports of entry) and the 'stans north of Afghanistan for logistical access.

They *all* got the money. Not just Pakistan.

This is the wrong thread and is OT - but....

The Pakistanis admitted in 2008 that most US aid was diverted to fight India. I find it incredulous that DoD and the spooks didn't know about this. More likely they looked the other way.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/10/0 ... 09283.html

The United States has long suspected that much of the billions of dollars it has sent Pakistan to battle militants has been diverted to the domestic economy and other causes, such as fighting India.
Now the scope and longevity of the misuse is becoming clear: Between 2002 and 2008, while al-Qaida regrouped, only $500 million of the $6.6 billion in American aid actually made it to the Pakistani military, two army generals tell The Associated Press.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Sep 2015 09:11

The whole Su-35 sale to Pak is a red-herring. Pakis are interested in around 48 aircraft, but the Chinese wanted a bigger number only a few years back, but they were turned down. The Russians want India to get all worked up about this and then negotiate some other deal with UAC to tie up their military aircraft production for the next few years. Just like the FGFA deal where India has put in $280 million for development for which it will get nothing back.