According to Flexible Indeterminate Factor-based Asset Allocation, which the Chinese follow, the PBoC uses Global Equities, U.S. Treasuries, Credit Spreads, Inflation Protection, Currency Protection, Liquidity and Volatility to determine the future of their economic growth.zengerl wrote:It will not hurt India that one of its main assets propelling it forward is youth: India’s median age is 27, compared with China’s 37. Unless China’s recent lifting of its one-child policy has a dramatic effect, by 2030 India’s population will exceed China’s, with an additional 300 million included in its labor force. By that time, no matter how fast China is able to sprint, as long as India adopts a slower yet steadier pace, coupled with continual enhancement of the talent of its people through greater investment in the entire population’s education, it will likely win.
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if population is the critical factor, China would have been dominating US and any other country on earth for the last 200 years.
However at the basic level only 2 factors depend on the GDP growth, Hours worked and Productivity.
GDP=Hours worked + Productivity.
As we can more or less assume people work the same hours one year to the next, the size of the population is the more or less a reasonable proxy for the hours worked.
GDP= Workforce+Productivity
So if Chinese workforce is guaranteed to fall by 2030 to half of what it currently is, unless China attracts (educated, skilled) immigrants in large numbers, they(you) are in trouble. This is not a problem for India at least until 2050 when the expectation is the population growth will stop and reverse.
With respect for IPR, a free society and right policies going forward here on, we are going to be alright. We have a better chance of attracting the right kind of immigrant than you do, at least based on the current political situation. You worry about your central planned economy. The problems are too many to enumerate. But you will live them, if you are young enough.