IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

JTull · Post by **JTull** » 25 Jan 2016 15:42

In all negotiations you've your target price and their target price. So the upper and lower bound are known. If most of the costs are already agreed and for a small fraction you know the bounds, then it is conceivable to have a deal with known risks.

Let's say the costs of acquiring the planes is agreed but there are sticking points in servicing agreements (such are level of cover needed or penalties for failing to deliver something on time) then it is perfectly possible to go ahead.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Jan 2016 16:07

hollande looks like he would rather be at home.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 25 Jan 2016 16:34

So is it an agreement on an future agreement to buy the Rafale?

Will · Post by **Will** » 25 Jan 2016 16:49

Now whats this supposed to mean?

You have either bought it or not. If the price hasn't been decided how can it be a "buy"?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Jan 2016 20:23

Intent to buy and sell is firmed up. Not the price yet.

Relax its a done deal.

Will · Post by **Will** » 25 Jan 2016 20:26

ramana wrote:Intent to buy and sell is firmed up. Not the price yet.

Relax its a done deal.

We all know that but "when will it be a totally done deal" is the q

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 25 Jan 2016 22:01

They had to sign something. I think they had already signed an MoU when Modi was in France. An IGA is not ready yet. So an "MoU to IGA" was signed this time. Very innovative!

Khalsa · Post by **Khalsa** » 25 Jan 2016 23:36

lol I love this
Just love this incremental approach.

All right I knew it was gonna another announcement at the R-Day.
Oh well lets wait another 3 months then (they said 1, I say 3).

And then price will be fixed...

Time to focus on our next phoren fighter.
FGFA

Let the MKI days begin again

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Jan 2016 23:57

Will wrote:
ramana wrote:Intent to buy and sell is firmed up. Not the price yet.

Relax its a done deal.
We all know that but "when will it be a totally done deal" is the q

When power plants get built and the mfg plant for it.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 26 Jan 2016 04:56

I am hoping that the deal won't go through. Spend the Billions on AMCA, Tejas, their variants & a 100 other programs that are fund-starved. A mere 36 fighters, inducted over a decade+ is not going to win us any wars. Building our own MIC will.

I hope this is the Indian babu frog-slow-boil treatment meted out to the French. 2 more years of these MoUs and they will give up altogether

member_28756 · Post by **member_28756** » 26 Jan 2016 04:58

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... -a-421190/

Dassault to work with India to build on new Rafale agreement
25 January, 2016 BY: Murdo Morrison Paris
Dassault says it will “go step by step” to securing further Rafale orders from India after prime minister Narendra Modi signed an agreement on 25 January with his French counterpart to purchase 36 of the type.

During a state visit by president Francois Hollande, the French and Indian governments signed an intergovernmental agreement which “paves the way” for the conclusion of a contract, and Dassault says it is working with Paris to finalise it within four weeks.

Speaking to Flightglobal on 20 January – ahead of Hollande’s visit to India this week – Dassault Aviation chief executive Eric Trappier said the company would work with the customer to add to the order.

Four years ago, New Delhi selected the Rafale for its $20 billion, 126-aircraft Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) requirement, but in August cancelled the doomed programme after announcing it was likely to only place an order for 36 fighters.

The acquisition of the 36 aircraft is now set to go ahead, although financial issues relating to the new agreement need to be agreed, which "must be resolved as soon as possible", a joint government statement says.

Under the agreement, Dassault will supply French-built aircraft in “flyaway” condition, although Trappier acknowledges selling further fighters will require the formal involvement of Indian industry in their production, thought to be a stumbling block to securing a larger initial deal.

“We worked to get [an order for] 126, but it took time as we had to license HAL [Hindustan Aeronautics]. It looks like the [Indian] government has decided to go faster, with 36 to fly away,” says Trappier.

He adds Dassault does not have “concerns” about the ability of potential industrial partners to participate in the Rafale programme, but says “it will take time for India to reach that competence”. Also, “their industry is very busy [with other military projects]”, he adds.

“If they order more we will have to create more jobs in India.”

A sale to India would mark the third export contract for the Rafale, following deals last year with Egypt and Qatar, each for 24 aircraft.

Trappier is also confident of securing business from Canada, whose new government is threatening to pull out of its commitment to the Lockheed Martin F-35 with the launch of a new competition.

“Canada is interesting,” says Trappier. “We are waiting for them to launch a competition and we will be a solid candidate.”

member_27845 · Post by **member_27845** » 26 Jan 2016 09:59

11 Billion for 36 aircraft is 305 mil per aircraft !!

Even 7 billion is 195 mil per aircraft !!

If each aircraft was supposed to cost 100 Mil , the deal should be valued at 3.6 Bil , instead now it is 2x , 3x multiples

I just hope we ditch the deal and focus in MKIs and LCA mix for the medium term future

member_29294 · Post by **member_29294** » 26 Jan 2016 10:03

^According to the rumors

French Offer:

$11 Billion /w 30% offset for 36 fighters.

$7.7 Billion for 36 fighters, real cost.

~$214 Million per fighter.

Indian Offer:

$7 Billion /w 30% offset for 36 fighters.

$4.9 Billion for 36 fighters, real cost.

~$136 Million per fighter.

This entire deal is such a mess it is unbelievable. There is a whooping ~$70 million price difference from French and Indian demands

. Indian offer is perfectly reasonable compared to the ridiculous demands of the French, and they should not compromise. Rafale is not worth +$200 million, when the more capable F-35 can be bought at nearly half that price. Get real.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 26 Jan 2016 10:16

Wow! What a mess. So a $4 billion difference? Time to dump the Rafale, but GoI has committed so much to this deal it seems hard to back out now, but back out it must! Maybe negotiations will conclude in a 3-4 years.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 26 Jan 2016 12:21

Austin wrote:
Y. Kanan wrote:Another day, another Rafale MoU, how many is that so far? Not that I'm complaining; I hope we never buy the damn things.
http://m.hindustantimes.com/india/india ... MrKBN.html
why ? what is alternative you suggest ?

Upgraded Mirage-2000's or increasing local production of the SU-30MKI. We don't need a huge investment in current-tech fighters right now, just interim solutions to tide us over until the next generation tech becomes attainable for India.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 26 Jan 2016 12:36

Said aeons ago,"cost,cost,cost". Secondly,one must remember that the Rafale is NOT an F-35 or FGFA! It is not an aircraft ror the future which justifies such uber expenditure,that too for a paltry 36.Just imagine a massive infrastructure,training,tech trg. regime for 2 sqds.If we put our backs to the bird and give it a push for a miniscule equiv financial effort,MKI availability will skyrocket setting up Indian entities like Tatas to manufacture spares,etc. A second LCA manufacturing line could also be set up either an HAL effort or with a pvt. partner.That will guarantee at least 20-24 LCAs arriving every year,one a month from each line,very doable. So in a decade,by 2016,we would be able to have inducted at least 200 LCAs into the IAF and can even ramp up production for export.

If Mr.Modi and his party are truly serious about the "make in India" mantra,the even better "made in India" LCA of which 200 are required to replace all our venerable MIG-21s/27s,should be given the top priority above the Rafale.As said earlier ,we can even offer the LCA as a JV to Russia,whoever, for their force or for filling a gap in the export portfolio. We should expand the LCA's export potential after its Bahrein debut and not be one-eyed with the Rafale.

In fact we could even offer it to the French for a JV for export as they have no small single-engined fighter in their portfolio. A future stealth version could also be built with a new French engine.If the French can get aboard the LCA bandwagon the gap of "$4B" could be bridged with our deal for the LCA!
MP,MOD are you listening?

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 26 Jan 2016 12:59

"Make In India" - what a joke that platitude has turned out to be. This Rafale deal is absolutely insane. At these prices even buying from the US starts to look palatable. We could afford three F-35's or six SU-30MKI's for each single Rafale. No way the Rafale is anywhere close to being worth that. Does the Modi govt have some deep-seated aversion to dealing with the Russians and a complete lack of faith in our own indigenous capability to improve on the SU-30 fleet's reliability and field a potent fleet of LCA's?

Another question: if SU-30 fleet's servicability rates weren't so low, and if LCA program was properly funded, would we even be so desperate to buy an MMRCA?

member_20453 · Post by **member_20453** » 26 Jan 2016 15:23

Wow, day light robbery

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 26 Jan 2016 15:31

Y. Kanan wrote:Another question: if SU-30 fleet's servicability rates weren't so low

Silly of me to ask, but couldn't we make up for low serviceability rates by buying 3 Su-30s for the price of one Rafale than be robbed blind in this deal.

As much as one talks of PM's political acumen, this is one thing that baffles no end.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 26 Jan 2016 15:34

^Er..you have to train 6 more pilots you know. Replacementand ground crew follow as well.

JTull · Post by **JTull** » 26 Jan 2016 15:42

I think it is pointless to comparie acquisition + long-term maintenance costs of Rafale to just the acquisition costs of Su-30MKI. The maintenance costs of Su-30MKI are infinite as no amount of cash can get it to the serviceability rates of Rafale.

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 26 Jan 2016 15:45

Paul wrote:^Er..you have to train 6 more pilots you know. Replacementand ground crew follow as well.

Like I said, it was probably silly of me to ask. I was thinking more on the lines of keeping those additional Su-30s in reserve to augment the fleet once the front line aircraft developed serviceability issues and till those were sorted out.

I understand it's not as simple as picking up a spare car, while the other one's in the garage. Just a thought.

It's not as if with the price that we are being charged, we are getting a vastly superior combat jet.

Akshay Kapoor · Post by **Akshay Kapoor** » 26 Jan 2016 15:46

Philip wrote:Said aeons ago,"cost,cost,cost". Secondly,one must remember that the Rafale is NOT an F-35 or FGFA! It is not an aircraft ror the future which justifies such uber expenditure,that too for a paltry 36.Just imagine a massive infrastructure,training,tech trg. regime for 2 sqds.If we put our backs to the bird and give it a push for a miniscule equiv financial effort,MKI availability will skyrocket setting up Indian entities like Tatas to manufacture spares,etc. A second LCA manufacturing line could also be set up either an HAL effort or with a pvt. partner.That will guarantee at least 20-24 LCAs arriving every year,one a month from each line,very doable. So in a decade,by 2016,we would be able to have inducted at least 200 LCAs into the IAF and can even ramp up production for export.

If Mr.Modi and his party are truly serious about the "make in India" mantra,the even better "made in India" LCA of which 200 are required to replace all our venerable MIG-21s/27s,should be given the top priority above the Rafale.As said earlier ,we can even offer the LCA as a JV to Russia,whoever, for their force or for filling a gap in the export portfolio. We should expand the LCA's export potential after its Bahrein debut and not be one-eyed with the Rafale.

In fact we could even offer it to the French for a JV for export as they have no small single-engined fighter in their portfolio. A future stealth version could also be built with a new French engine.If the French can get aboard the LCA bandwagon the gap of "$4B" could be bridged with our deal for the LCA!
MP,MOD are you listening?

Philip sir, the problem is that Russians are not allowing us to make our own spares and spare parts as per the contract signed with them. If we can change the contract and then put serious leadership (and keep babus completely out) into setting up an ecosystem for MKIs, then of course it can be done. After all we have designed LCA ourselves. Our problem will be scaling and productionising. But it can be solved at a fraction of the cost IF we bring the right talent and leadership to it - an area we have not excelled at !

But regardless I am now also of the view that the Rafale is not a good deal at this price. Lets see what happens.

Akshay Kapoor · Post by **Akshay Kapoor** » 26 Jan 2016 15:48

I really hope GoI will play some hardball with the french. Lets say 7 billion is our last bid , walk away and see what happens.

Guddu · Post by **Guddu** » 26 Jan 2016 15:50

Something does not add up, Raffy cannot be so expensive.
Ze lentil izz black.

Akshay Kapoor · Post by **Akshay Kapoor** » 26 Jan 2016 16:13

I think we should be ready to walk away and be seen to be ready to walk away. We should publicly start making noises for an immediate procurement of F35, F18 etc as a alternative to Rafale and also send a high powered empowered delegation to UK for the Eurofighter. Let the brits and frogs slug it out. If we negotiate properly and are willing to walk away, we will get a much better deal.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 26 Jan 2016 16:18

It depends on the package we have Opted for without knowing the details its hard to say why it cost that much , also consider 50 % offset in this deal.

IF both parties come midway then the cost will be around $9 billion

Akshay Kapoor · Post by **Akshay Kapoor** » 26 Jan 2016 16:38

My understanding of offsetts was that if I buy something for 100 and there is 30% offsett then I pay 100 and the seller invests 30 in India buying defence equipment. Not that I pay 100 for the equiment and then give the seller another 30 invest in India !!!

Akshay Kapoor · Post by **Akshay Kapoor** » 26 Jan 2016 16:41

9 billion for 36 jets even if it covers spares @ 5 % a year for 5 years and a weapons package including say 36*100 ( far more than we ever buy) = 3600 missiles, is way too expensive.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 26 Jan 2016 17:53

Akshay Kapoor wrote:My understanding of offsetts was that if I buy something for 100 and there is 30% offsett then I pay 100 and the seller invests 30 in India buying defence equipment. Not that I pay 100 for the equiment and then give the seller another 30 invest in India !!!

Offsets increase the price since the company making the offset has to absorb a new set of manufacturers into its existing product supply chain. If they are investing 50% back as offset, it isn't unreasonable to expect that the cost of the deal would rise by 15-20% to account for that. The reason its still beneficial to India, is that it gives a huge $ amount of work to indian companies that would not have been possible otherwise.

Will · Post by **Will** » 26 Jan 2016 17:54

Wanna bet which well known company is going to benefit from the offsets.

. At the prices quoted this has the makings of a major scam. Time to dump the Rafale.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 26 Jan 2016 18:24

The IAF made such a fuss about the Rafale being the only answer, no Plan B, without even evaluating other options, that India rushed willy nilly into this deal and now political capital has been invested making it too big to fail. High time an integrated plan was done to look at the entire perspective plan of all 3 services.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 26 Jan 2016 18:45

Karan M wrote:The IAF made such a fuss about the Rafale being the only answer, no Plan B, without even evaluating other options, that India rushed willy nilly into this deal and now political capital has been invested making it too big to fail. High time an integrated plan was done to look at the entire perspective plan of all 3 services.

The IAF made no fuss as the prerogative always rests with MOD/GOI of the day to cancel the deal and Parrikar was on record in Parliament to state the plan B was to build more MKI and Tejas.

The MMRCA process was itself a very flawed one where every type was allowed to compete single and double engine , light and medium types.

Over that we never had any fixed timelines for MMRCA it kept extending for years and with new DPP coming up and no deadline to buy the types , over that extremely complex TOT regiems demands and offset programs and Lic Manuf program.

The IAF just kept waiting perpetually and in frustration for 10 years when it first asked for 126 of M2K types post kargil.

Finally Namo/MOD in their wisdom just decided to go for G2G deal with lesser number to take care of rapidly depleting squadron and the unsaid Nuclear detterrent role as even m2K was getting too long in tooth and Super MKI is no where in sight.

The present GOI just fixed what looked like never ending process of selection then negotiation which made IAF look like fools to wait in perpetuity for no fault of theirs. All they asked for 126 Fighter in 1999 with zeroing in on M2K but Politician and MOD Flawed Procurement process screwed it up

We need to fix our procurement system make it time bound , financial bound and clear as to what we need , Once that is done the rest will just get fixed automatically and we will have a predictable procurement in place.

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 26 Jan 2016 18:57

A very basic question. Wasnt price per aircraft a part of the MMRCA tender process? Wouldnt the French have quoted a price when they bid? If yes how can they now jack it up so much? Even if the total order size has reduced it no way justifies the almost 2-3 fold increase now being quoted.

Is there something else being procured from the French under the garb of this deal? No way someone is so dumb both in the North and South Block to otherwise agree to the new deal.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 26 Jan 2016 19:11

The IAF made such a fuss about the Rafale being the only answer, no Plan B ............

Some people have amnesia. Time started with Parrikar. Even if that is true, then there must be a negative time, when Plan B was no an option?

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 26 Jan 2016 19:13

Austin wrote:The IAF made no fuss as the prerogative always rests with MOD/GOI of the day to cancel the deal and Parrikar was on record in Parliament to state the plan B was to build more MKI and Tejas.

The IAF made enough of a fuss with public statements of there being no Plan B, any mention of a Plan B being due to vested interests and what not.
They pretty much made it clear to France, IAF was desperate and was doing all it could to make GOI sign on dotted line.

Sukhoi cannot replace Rafale: Arup Raha, IAF chief
http://articles.economictimes.indiatime ... -arup-raha
No Plan B on MMRCA: IAF Chief
http://www.spsshownews.com/news/?id=172 ... -IAF-Chief

Parrikar/GOI were forced to make statements to the contrary in public. Once Parrikar/MOD made it clear that funds weren't there.
http://www.sunday-guardian.com/news/iaf ... in-trouble

There is a problem in India wherein everyone (and the Pathankot attack was a perfect example) gabs away without even considering a united front, giving all the negotiating power to the opposite side. The IAF played to form there in this instance. The MOD also did its bit in the prior Govt, where it announced the Rafale as the winner for the MMRCA, pompously stating no negotiations with EF would be possible, and Dassault leverages good PR for its own benefits and India is left holding ...nothing. Because the final deal was yet to be finalized.

The MMRCA process was itself a very flawed one where every type was allowed to compete single and double engine , light and medium types.

Of which a lot of issue rests not just with the CAG but with the IAF itself. What were they thinking when for the MMRCA, they had single engine platforms competing with dual ones and with no clear marking for superior performance on specific attributes which would have excluded aircraft like the MiG-35 from day 1.

Over that we never had any fixed timelines for MMRCA it kept extending for years and with new DPP coming up and no deadline to buy the types , over that extremely complex TOT regiems demands and offset programs and Lic Manuf program. The IAF just kept waiting perpetually and in frustration for 10 years when it first asked for 126 of M2K types post kargil.

First asked for 126 M2Ks which would have been obsolete in the 2020-30 timeframe as the striking edge of the fleet. And making them current at least avionics wise with a MLU, a daunting prospect since the French moved onto the Rafale.

Finally Namo/MOD in their wisdom just decided to go for G2G deal with lesser number to take care of rapidly depleting squadron and the unsaid Nuclear detterrent role as even m2K was getting too long in tooth and Super MKI is no where in sight.

What deterrent, where? If deterrent was the state role we have enough airframes in place. Plus 40 upgraded Sukhois with the SAP-518 were also procured stating similar stuff. There is no evidence whatsoever that these Rafales are for any deterrent role bar some journos doing speculation.

The present GOI just fixed what looked like never ending process of selection then negotiation which made IAF look like fools to wait in perpetuity for no fault of theirs. All they asked for 126 Fighter in 1999 with zeroing in on M2K but Politician and MOD Flawed Procurement process screwed it up

Actually, it was the CAG which insisted it be made into a contest and not a single vendor deal. But IAF bears equal issue for making it a circus with so many competing platforms and no clear cutoff.

We need to fix our procurement system make it time bound , financial bound and clear as to what we need , Once that is done the rest will just get fixed automatically and we will have a predictable procurement in place.

[/quote]

Agree, and the IAF etc also need to revise their needs and doctrines clearly to know what they need and why they need it.

kit · Post by **kit** » 26 Jan 2016 19:15

kind of fascinated by the Rafale deal .. go slow ...s l o w ... s l o w ... meantime get your stuff done your way ! (get the french to walk their talk ! ) .. now what if the french gave a bank loan similar to the Japanese for the shinkansen

.. even better

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 26 Jan 2016 19:30

Agree, and the IAF etc also need to revise their needs and doctrines clearly to know what they need and why they need it.

...and whether they need it at all!

Rafales for the strat N-bombing role? Whom do the IAF intend to N-bomb then? Only Pak and BDesh perhaps,but Beijing? Or have they abdicated that role to the IN's SSBNs! What then do the IA do with their Prithvis,BMos land attack,Agni-1s,Shouryas,etc? There are road/rail deployed N-tipped BMs too don't forget.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 26 Jan 2016 23:29

If we forget all the fancy gizmos and assume that India had continued the production of Mig-21, 27 and Jaguars till date (with modern radars & avionics) then we would have had additional 300 Mig-21, 300 Mig-27 and 100 Jaguars which is lot better than Zero Rafales/MMRCA

pkudva · Post by **pkudva** » 27 Jan 2016 07:42

The way things are going for Rafael, India should take its own Time until French reduce the Price.

Mean Time, India has 2 Options go with SuMKI/Su-35S (which I am sure) Russians vl again again harder to get as much money as Possible.

Second would be the easiest, Induct & Enhance the Production Facility of LCA which can only resolve the Problem.

India now should certainly think of Acquisition/Inhouse Designing of Bomber which would serve its purpose for Long time.

IAF would now surely feel they should have developed Inhouse designing agency much like Indian Navy which has fructified immensely in designing the ships the way they want.