Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 12 Mar 2017 16:14

They came, they fought, they stayed - The Hindu

On December 16, 1971, the India-Pakistan war ended with the liberation of Bangladesh. The war was short — it had raged for all of 13 days — but India had mobilised its entire land forces, including a secretive unit of soldiers from the Special Frontier Force (SFF), a group raised for trans-Himalayan combat. Some of the SFF recruits were not Indians. They were from Tibet and had come into India on forced exile, in waves and participated in the ground battles and the combing operations that followed with minimal knowledge of South Asian languages and the people they encountered. They had hoped that after the war India would send them home to fight the Chinese forces in Tibet as a reward — but that was not to be.

Dhondup Palden, now in his 80s, a resident of Lama Camp in Tezu, Arunachal Pradesh, was one of the Tibetans who despite their Buddhist faith took up arms. Sitting at the porch of his home-on-stilts that is painted blue and decorated with Buddhist prayer flags, he reminisces about the war and how he had ventured into unfamiliar territory. “We killed many enemies in that war. For 15 days, we moved across the country rounding up Pakistani soldiers and pro-Pakistan agents.” The war stood out as it was the first time that the Tibetans, a mountain people, had to negotiate with the riverine landscape of Bangladesh. “We walked on muddy riverbeds, and went from village to village looking for enemies. The experience was unusual for us Tibetan soldiers,” he says.

The war of 1971 was not the first Dhondup and his compatriots in Lama Camp experienced. Their war began 20 years earlier in the 1950s, when they fought a guerrilla battle against the Chinese forces in Tibet supported by weapons and trainers from the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) which wanted to dislodge China from Tibet.

As we catch up with Dhondup, he is soaking in the celebrations of Losar, the Tibetan New Year which began in the last week of February. Losar to the Tibetans means crushed corn which is sprinkled on guests and meant for auspicious occasions, good food, drinks and a time to recollect the past. His kitchen is stocked with savouries and drinks. This is the Year of the Firebird which, like the phoenix, stands for resurrection and the burning away of wasteful deeds. Keeping with the spirit of the new year, Dhondup wants to relive the war of his youth.

“We had inadequate weapons and ammunition but we wanted to fight the Chinese who forced us to build roads and bridges,” he says in a mix of Hindi and Tibetan that was interpreted by his son Tsering. The guerrillas fought with .303 rifles of World War II vintage, receiving better weapons only in the later phase.

Dhondup and five other veterans are the remaining few from the hundreds of unknown foot soldiers of a liberation war, unlamented and unsung. These former soldiers were of fighting age; in exile now, time is ticking away. Many have passed away. One of their comrades, who rose to run a movie theatre in the neighbourhood, passed away earlier this year. They were the pioneers of a resistance movement that took to violence before the Dalai Lama weaned them away to non-violent means.

Enter the CIA

Dhondup was a member of the only modern insurgent group of Tibet, the Dhokham Chushi Gangdruk (DCG). The DCG was formed on June 16, 1958 in Tibet by a charismatic nobleman, Andrup Gonpo Tashi. For some time the group carried out ambushes against the Chinese forces as Beijing tried to consolidate its gains in Tibet. Dhondup, then in his twenties, was one of the early recruits in this movement and was trained in sabotage and the use of arms.

“During the struggle, we used basic weapons like the old rifles that fired one bullet at a time,” he says, explaining that the movement expanded rapidly from the Kham region of Tibet despite shortage of weapons and ammunition.

The DCG became known worldwide for being the secret force of the CIA, which sent trainers and equipment to Tibet to support the rebels. Dhondup recalls how the Americans sent high-flying cargo jets into the Tibetan airspace for his group that consisted of 600 volunteers.

One of the key assignments of the DCG was to guard the Dalai Lama as he planned to go into India. A little distance away from Dhondup’s Tezu home lives one of the former DCG fighters who accompanied the Dalai Lama during that momentous journey. “The journey of 1959 was arduous. Yaks and horses were used to cross the snowy mountain. We ensured safety for the Dalai Lama with one group travelling with him and another providing support at Lhasa,” says Zolpa Sibu, the ex-DCG fighter.

Sibu is nostalgic about his DCG days. “We did not have the best of weapons to fight. Many of our comrades died in bombing and counter-insurgency operations carried out by the Chinese forces,” he says, recounting that even the force’s founder was brought to India with injuries he sustained in a blast. He remembers how grim the situation in Tibet had become. “We were evicted from our homes. Families broke up — the Chinese employed women and men separately for forced labour projects that would go on for months. Social and religious gatherings became impossible as the police questioned all such gatherings.”

The DCG put up a strong resistance, but the end was inevitable. Sibu was arrested but released after months of detention. As was Dhondup. “I was kept in prison for two months and for weeks my hands were tied up,” he says, showing his permanently scarred hands.

The DCG’s fighters decided to escape into India through the mountain passes in eastern Arunachal district of Upper Dibang Valley and the western district of Tawang via Bomdila. The journey was difficult; many perished but the likes of Dhondup, Sibu and their families survived the trek.

The war for Bangladesh

Soon after coming into India, these fighters were asked to settle in Tezu but within a year they had to move as India-China hostilities intensified in the run-up to the 1962 war. As the border districts of the North East Frontier Agency, as Arunachal Pradesh was then known, were evacuated, the fighters were resettled in Dibrugarh and Guwahati in Assam. They returned to Tezu after the war ended, and soon found themselves recruited by Indian military officers who had by now realised their potential as trained guerrillas and intelligence-gatherers. “The military instructors tested our firing skills, asked us to take physical fitness tests. Most of us passed the test and joined the Indian military as we were eager to go back to Tibet and fight the Chinese forces again,” says Dhondup.

The fighters boarded a train at Guwahati and were taken to Chakrata in Uttarakhand (then in Uttar Pradesh) where a rigorous training programme began to equip them for special military operations. “We were trained to handle mortar fire, automatic weapons, rocket launchers. I was specially recruited into a team of paratroopers in the SFF,” says Dhondup, explaining that the Tibetans were expected to go back into their country for special operations. As first-generation exiles, the men did not always understand the detailed discussions held among Indian military officers, but carried out the assigned duties nevertheless.

Havildar Sangey was also among the ex-DCG SFF recruits. He counts himself as lucky, having been taken as part of a three-member group for a special training programme in Europe. “I even trained with some American officials abroad,” he says, reliving his days as a paratrooper.

The hostility between India and Pakistan gave the SFF fighters a new chance to test their fighting skills. “During the 1971 war, many of our friends died fighting,” says Dhondup, recounting that the war had left him injured and he was admitted in the Armed Forces Medical College, Pune. “Generals and [Prime Minister] Indira Gandhi came to see us in hospital. We got a transistor radio as reward,” he adds, his eyes lighting up as he recounts the heady days.

By the time the Bangladesh war ended, most of the soldiers had acquired family and had young kids at home. But newer assignments beckoned, including reconnaissance missions in Ladakh and in the high Himalayas. “We wanted to fight in Tibet because the SFF [training] taught us lot more than we knew in the DCG days, but that fight never came,” rues Sangey. “We had all the necessary advanced weapons. We would not have left Tibet if we had these weapons and training at that time.”

Renewed rumble in the east

The amphitheatre of much of the 1962 war, the epic face-offs of yesteryear still linger in the air of the Arunachal Himalayas, especially the mountains from Tezu to Anjaw district which were the scene of the bloodbath of Namti where an unknown number of Indian and Chinese soldiers died.

Having spent their youth in the midst of guerrilla warfare and tectonic political churn, the elderly denizens of Lama Camp find themselves still engulfed by geopolitics thanks to the evolving importance of the Eastern Himalayas. In recent years, the U.S. and India have begun to work on salvaging the remains of aviators who crashed in the mountains near Tezu during World War II. The discovery of a Chinese citizen in the region in 2010 stirred up matters between India and China. Guang Liang spent months in a prison in Arunachal Pradesh before the Chinese reportedly took him back. In addition, barely a dozen kilometres from the neighbourhood of these former guerrillas is the brand-new easternmost airport of India at Tezu which can also host heavy bombers and cargo carriers. Recent reports about an impending visit by the Dalai Lama to Arunachal Pradesh have again stirred up the pioneers of DCG.

While the region remains the locus of power games, the exploits of the octogenarians of Lama Camp slowly recedes into oblivion. In the sunset of their lives, they wish to bequeath their saga of resistance in Tibet to posterity. “Most of us did not get a chance to lead a normal life. We were deprived of the education that would have trained us to record and write our experience as soldiers,” says Sibu.

The legacy and the future

In recent years there have been some attempts to recognise their signal contribution. The Central Tibetan Administration has set up offices in Delhi and Dharamsala for addressing the needs of these senior community members. On the 50th anniversary of the founding of DCG in 2008, special commemorative events were organised by the Tibetan community in India to honour them and recognise the armed struggle that they executed against China.

Young Tibetans also drop in once in a while to seek blessing of these elders. The Tibetan diaspora has also shown interest in chronicling the story of DCG and a number of websites provide information about the violent movement which faded out with the exile of Tibetans to India. However most of the literature focusses on the CIA’s role in fuelling the war in the Cold War period and is inadequate in recording the narratives of the men who fought the war not just for the CIA but also for India. “Our lives were disrupted. At the time of DCG, we did not foresee our exile and that is why we did not bother to photograph our homes and our struggles,” says Sibu, urging better documentation of the scattered photographs and other records of the movement in Tibet.

Despite their advancing years, the DCG fighters do not receive any additional financial support from the Government of India — the SFF gave a comprehensive settlement package, a one-time lump-sum amount at the time of retirement.

While the passage of time has dimmed Dhondup, Sibu and Sangay’s hopes of returning to their homeland, the fire still burns. “Even now I dream of fighting in the streets of Tibet with a gun,” says Dhondup. The DCG, incidentally, still exists in exile, espousing an independent Tibet. Dreams don’t die.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 13 Mar 2017 03:11

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 609069.cms
'India should not fall into US, Japan's trap to contain China'
By PTI | Mar 12, 2017, 09.58 PM IST
BEIJING: India should not fall into the "trap" of the US and Japan who are trying to use it to contain China, the Chinese official media said, underlining that such a move may make New Delhi face more risks.
"Washington hopes to use New Delhi to contain China in the Indian Ocean. Tokyo wishes to counter-balance China in the Pacific Ocean with the help of New Delhi," an editorial in the Chinese version of the state-run Global Times said.
"All these seem to be strategic opportunities for India, but they are actually nothing more than traps. Once India falls into them, the country will become a pawn for the US and Japan and will lose numerous opportunities while facing more risks," it said.
"As a nation which sees itself as a major power, if India relies on external forces for its security, it will become more self-abased. The best path for India's development is to be more open to its neighbours and join regional dev ..
...

See the lizard cares.
Gautam

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 13 Mar 2017 07:32

What about China falling into Pakistani trap?

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 13 Mar 2017 14:58

Vietnam demands China stop cruises in South China Sea - Reuters

Vietnam demanded on Monday that China stop sending cruise ships to the South China Sea in a response to one of Beijing's latest steps to bolster its claims in the strategic waterway.

A Chinese cruise ship with more than 300 passengers visited the disputed Paracel Islands earlier this month.

"Vietnam strongly opposes this and demands that China respect Vietnam's sovereignty over the Paracel Islands and international law and immediately stop and not repeat those activities," foreign ministry spokesperson Le Hai Binh told Reuters.

"Those actions have seriously violated Vietnam's sovereignty over the Paracel Islands and international law," he said.

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 13 Mar 2017 15:21

Chinese Communist Party officials harden rhetoric on Islam

BEIJING: Chinese officials are issuing new warnings about the specter of global religious extremism seeping into the country, following reports of fighters from China's Muslim minority fighting alongside militants in Syria and Iraq.

Sharhat Ahan, a top political and legal affairs party official in Xinjiang, on Sunday became the latest official from a predominantly Muslim region to warn about China becoming destabilized by the "international anti-terror situation' and calling for a "people's war."

Over the past year, President Xi Jinping has directed the party to "Sinicize" the country's ethnic and religious minorities, while regional leaders in Xinjiang, home to the Uighur (pronounced WEE-gur) ethnic minority, have ramped up surveillance measures, police patrols and demonstrations amid an uptick in violence blamed on Islamic separatists.

Although some scholars question whether global jihadi networks have indeed penetrated the country, top Chinese officials, including those overseeing areas outside Xinjiang, are increasingly echoing certain strands of international discourse to back up claims that Islamic extremism is growing worldwide and needs to be rolled back.

Officials from Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region — which has an ethnic Hui population that is predominantly Muslim but, unlike Xinjiang, rarely sees separatist or religious violence — warned similarly this past week about the perils of Islamic extremism. Speaking at a regional meeting open to the media, Ningxia Communist Party secretary Li Jianguo drew comparisons to the policies of President Donald Trump's administration to make his point.

"What the Islamic State and extremists push is jihad, terror, violence," Li said. "This is why we see Trump targeting Muslims in a travel ban. It doesn't matter whether anti-Muslim policy is in the interests of the U.S. or it promotes stability, it's about preventing religious extremism from seeping into all of American culture."

Wu Shimin, a former ethnic affairs official from Ningxia, said that ideological work must be strengthened in the region to promote a Chinese identity among its Hui population, the descendants of Muslim traders plying the Silk Road centuries ago.

"The roots of the Hui are in China," Wu said. "To discuss religious consciousness, we must first discuss Chinese consciousness. To discuss the feelings of minorities, we must first discuss the feelings of the Chinese people."

Mohammed al-Sudairi, a doctoral student at the University of Hong Kong and an expert on Islam in China, said the comments by Ningxia party officials reflected the increasingly anti-Islamic rhetoric that has been rolled out over the past year by the top leadership in Beijing.

"There's a strengthening trend of viewing Islam as a problem in Chinese society," al-Sudairi said. "Xi Jinping has been quite anxious about what he saw as the loss of party-state control over the religious sphere when he entered power, which necessitated this intervention. I don't think things will take a softer turn."Aah! Now the Chinese Screw Turns on the Pieceful Followers of the World's Only Religion of Peace especially in the Land of the Pure and the Home of the Terrorists

In Xinjiang, where hundreds of people have died in recent years in violent attacks, the government's rising rhetoric has coincided with new security measures that activists say exacerbate a cycle of repression, radicalization and violence. The government, meanwhile, says Xinjiang faces a grave separatist threat from Uighur fighters linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group, though it provides little evidence for such claims.

IS released a video in late February purportedly showing Uighur fighters training in Iraq and vowing to strike China, according to the SITE Intelligence Group.

On Sunday, a delegation of Xinjiang leaders appeared at a news conference at Beijing's Great Hall of the People, but absent was the region's new top leader, Chen Quanguo, who has led a series of high-profile anti-terror rallies that have involved phalanxes of police and armored vehicles rumbling through the streets of the regional capital. As was the case for several other regions and provinces, most of the Xinjiang delegation's meetings were conducted with top Chinese leaders behind closed doors this past week, according to state media reports.

On Friday, Xi met with Xinjiang officials, according to state media, and directed them to safeguard the region's stability by erecting a metaphorical "great wall of iron."

It was a reference loaded with historical and martial overtones: Former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping praised the People's Liberation Army as a "great wall of iron and steel" in June 1989, days after the military quashed a pro-democracy protest in Tiananmen Square in a bloody assault.

Cheers

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 13 Mar 2017 17:57

China to expand marine corps for deployment in Gwadar - PTI

China is set to increase the number of its marine corps from 20,000 to one lakh as part of plans to deploy them overseas for the first time, including at the strategic Gwadar port in Pakistan and military logistics base in Djibouti in the Indian Ocean.

The expansion is planned to protect China's maritime lifelines and its growing interests overseas, Hong-Kong based South China Morning Post reported today.

Some members would be stationed at ports China operates in Djibouti and Gwadar in southwest Pakistan, Chinese military insiders and experts were quoted as saying.

Gwadar port is a deep-sea port next to the Strait of Hormuz, the key oil route in and out of the Persian Gulf, built with Chinese funding and operated by mainland firms.

Although the port is not home to any PLA installation, navy ships are expected to dock at the facility in the near future, the report said.

Gwadar also connects the $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) through PoK with China's Xinjiang.

Reports from Pakistan said the country itself is setting up Special Security Division comprising 15,000 troops, including 9,000 Pakistan Army soldiers and 6,000 para-military forces personnel to protect CPEC and Chinese personnel.

The expanded Chinese marine corps is part of a wider push to refocus the world's largest army away from winning a land war based on sheer numbers and towards meeting a range of security scenarios using highly specialised units, the report said.

Towards that end, Chinese President Xi Jinping is reducing the size of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) by three lakh, with nearly all of the cuts coming from the land forces, it said.

For this, two brigades of special combat soldiers had already been moved to the marines, nearly doubling its size to 20,000, and more brigades would be added, the report said.

"The PLA marines will be increased to 100,000, consisting of six brigades in the coming future to fulfil new missions of our country," it quoted a source as saying.

The size of the navy would also grow 15 per cent from its current estimated size of 2.35 lakh personnel.

China this year plans to increase its defence spending by about seven per cent to $152 billion. Much of it was expected to go to the navy as China plans to spread its influence far from its shores.

Traditionally, marines have mostly operated only in China's coastal areas, as their role was limited by their relatively small numbers and basic equipment, Beijing-based naval expert Li Jie said.

But a bigger corps could be deployed much farther afield as the navy takes on more challenges.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 13 Mar 2017 18:43

China poses security threat in power sector: trade body - Lalatendu Mishra, The Hindu

A bid by Chinese, state-owned companies to enter India’s power transmission sector has raised national security concerns in Indian power gear circles. Local power gear makers’ lobby group, the Indian Electrical Equipment Manufacturers Association (IEEMA), has raised a red flag over the issue.

IEEMA has cautioned against the associated risks if Chinese firms are allowed to bid and operate transmission projects in India.

Huge contracts

After entering the consumer goods and power generation equipment market in India, Chinese firms are now eyeing the nascent transmission sector where multi-billion dollar contracts are up for grabs.

China Southern Power Grid International (HK Company Ltd.), a subsidiary of state-owned China Southern Power Grid Co Ltd., has partnered with CLP India Private Ltd. to build power transmission networks in India. Several Chinese firms are gearing up to participate in bids invited by Central sector and State sector utilities for establishment, operation and maintenance of transmission lines for periods ranging from 25 to 35 years.

In bids called for the inter-state transmission system projects involving investments worth more than Rs. 3,000 crore, China Southern Power has submitted qualification documents to build, own and operate power transmission networks in India.

The consortium has submitted qualification documents for three projects for which bids were invited.

The projects are: transmission systems for an ultra-mega solar park in Jaisalmer, Rajasthan, Eastern Region Strengthening Scheme (ERSS)-XXI and the New WR-NR Inter-Regional Corridor.

The long-term nature of the contracts ensures that the successful bidder will have ownership over the projects during the entire duration, people familiar with the development said.

According to IEEMA, electricity transmission is a critical infrastructure for the economy and has significant bearing on the national security. The outage of one transmission element can have a cascading impact and can lead to a grid blackout situation, putting the military establishment, internal law and security and hospitals at a great risk,

It said that from the points of view of data security and control on data communication, these are critical assets. “It is very important to safeguard the transmission system operation from grid stability, grid security as well as data security perspective,” IEEMA said in letters written to various government departments.

“As a nation, we are not [on] good terms with China. . We must take extreme caution as it involves the crucial power sector,” said Sunil Misra, Director General, IEEMA.

“Power is a critical infrastructure. It is difficult to imagine what will happen if the grid collapses [due to] some ulterior motive. We need to have safeguards,” Mr. Misra added. “Any nation or company where the relationship is suspect, we should not be dealing with them.”

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 14 Mar 2017 00:29

China warns of trade war if US imposes tariffs on its goods

BEIJING: China has warned of a trade war with the US if the Trump administration decides to ignore WTO rulings and unilaterally imposes tariffs on its goods.

"If any member ignores WTO rules for its own interests and rejects WTO rulings on trade disputes, multilateral trade mechanisms would become meaningless and the trade wars of the 1930s could even be repeated," Sun Jiwei, a spokesperson for the ministry of commerce (MOFCOM) said, reacting to moves by Washington to ignore the world trade body.

Sun was reacting to annual trade policy agenda sent to Congress by the new US government implying that America is not bound by World Trade Organisation (WTO) decisions.

The new US policy will also strictly enforce its trade laws, which include a "safeguard" provision that allows the Washington to unilaterally impose relief "if increasing imports are substantial cause of serious injury to a domestic industry," state-run Global Times reported.

US President Donald Trump, who made some tough statements against China before and after his election, branded Beijing as a currency manipulator to gain unfair advantage from exports and even threatened to impose 45 per cent tariffs on Chinese goods.

China's Commerce Minister Zhong Shan, told media last week that China and the US are interdependent, and bilateral trade relations affect not just the two countries but the world.

"Many Americans and their Western friends think that China has to rely on the US. I think they are partially right. But the US has to rely on China as well," Zhong said.

The report said the new US document asserts that "Americans are not directly subject to WTO decisions," and that the US will defend its national sovereignty over trade policy and use all possible sources of leverage to encourage other countries to open their markets to US exports of goods and services.

Zhong said China receives 26 per cent of Boeing airplane orders, 56 per cent of US bean exports, 16 per cent of automobile exports and 15 per cent of integrated circuit exports.

China-US trade reached USD 519.6 billion in 2016, representing 207 times that of the 1979 amount, when diplomatic relations started, he said.

However, the balance of trade is heavily tilted in favour of China as US exports amount to about $100 billion.
"A trade war is not in the best interests of the two countries and peoples because a trade war only does much more harm than good," Zhong had said. Confucius say : Chinese show gleat blavado when colneled!
Cheers

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 14 Mar 2017 05:11

Japan sends its largest warship to South China Sea - Reuters

Japan plans to dispatch its largest warship on a three-month tour through the South China Sea beginning in May, sources said, in its biggest show of naval force in the region since World War Two.

China claims almost all the disputed waters and its growing military presence has fuelled concern in Japan and the West, with the United States holding regular air and naval patrols to ensure freedom of navigation.

The Izumo helicopter carrier, commissioned only two years ago, will make stops in Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Sri Lanka before joining the Malabar joint naval exercise with Indian and US naval vessels in the Indian Ocean in July.

It will return to Japan in August, the sources said.

"The aim is to test the capability of the Izumo by sending it out on an extended mission," said one of the sources who have knowledge of the plan. "It will train with the US Navy in the South China Sea," he added, asking not to be identified because he is not authorized to talk to the media.

A spokesman for Japan's Maritime Self Defence Force declined to comment.

aiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Brunei also claim parts of the sea which has rich fishing grounds, oil and gas deposits and through which around $5 trillion of global sea-borne trade passes each year.

Japan does not have any claim to the waters, but has a separate maritime dispute with China in the East China Sea.

Japan wants to invite Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, who has pushed ties with China in recent months as he has criticised the old alliance with the United States, to visit the Izumo when it visits Subic Bay, about 100 km (62 miles) west of Manila, another of the sources said.

Asked during a news conference about his view on the warship visit, Duterte said, without elaborating, "I have invited all of them."

He added: "It is international passage, the South China Sea is not our territory, but it is part of our entitlement."

On whether he would visit the warship at Subic Bay, Duterte said: "If I have time."

Japan's flag-flying operation comes as the United States under President Donald Trump appears to be taking a tougher line with China. Washington has criticized China's construction of man-made islands and a build-up of military facilities that it worries could be used to restrict free movement.

Beijing in January said it had "irrefutable" sovereignty over the disputed islands after the White House vowed to defend "international territories".

The 249 metre-long (816.93 ft) Izumo is as large as Japan's World War Two-era carriers and can operate up to nine helicopters. It resembles the amphibious assault carriers used by US Marines, but lacks their well deck for launching landing craft and other vessels.

Japan in recent years, particularly under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, has been stretching the limits of its post-war, pacifist constitution. It has designated the Izumo as a destroyer because the constitution forbids the acquisition of offensive weapons. The vessel, nonetheless, allows Japan to project military power well beyond its territory.

Based in Yokosuka, near to Tokyo, which is also home to the US Seventh Fleet's carrier, the Ronald Reagan, the Izumo's primary mission is anti-submarine warfare.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 14 Mar 2017 11:59

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/why-us-anti-missile-system-in-south-korea-worries-china/articleshow/57617043.cms -Chris Buckley, NYT

Mao Zedong famously dismissed the atomic bomb as a "paper tiger," able to kill and terrify, but not decisive in war. Even so, China built a nuclear arsenal of its own, and now concerns about the effectiveness of that arsenal as a deterrent are driving it into confrontation with the United States+ over an anti-missile system being built in South Korea. Here's an explanation of why.

How big is China's nuclear arsenal?

China conducted its first nuclear test in 1964, and has developed a stable of nuclear missiles. But it is not a big stable, compared with the thousands of warheads held by the United States and Russia.

China does not reveal the size of its nuclear forces. It has about 260 nuclear warheads that could be put on missiles, and by the Pentagon's latest estimate, China has between 75 and 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles. Some estimates are lower, and one recent assessment said 40 to 50 of China's ballistic missiles could reach the continental United States.

The United States has deployed about 1,370 nuclear warheads and has stockpiled more than 6,500, and has submarines and aircraft able to launch nuclear weapons.

China has also built several submarines that can launch nuclear missiles. But even its latest-model submarine "is noisy and quite vulnerable to anti-submarine warfare," and therefore is not a very potent addition to its nuclear deterrent, M Taylor Fravel, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Fiona S Cunningham, a graduate student there, who recently published an assessment of China's nuclear modernization, said by email.

China has also been upgrading some of its missiles so that several nuclear warheads can be placed on a single missile that then unleashes them on different targets.

China has had the ability to put multiple warheads on missiles since the 1990s, but seems to have done so only recently, when some missiles were installed with three or four warheads, said Jeffrey Lewis, an expert on China's nuclear forces at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. This showed how China has been cautious in playing catch-up to the United States, he said.

"I don't think that the Chinese and US have, historically, experienced the kind of tit-for-tat modernization that we saw during the US-Soviet arms race," Lewis said. "The Chinese more or less modernized for their own reasons and according to their own ideas."

Why has China's nuclear arsenal stayed relatively small?

By the time China joined the nuclear club, the United States and Russia were well ahead in building a stockpile of weapons. Mao decided to stick to a relatively small arsenal big enough to serve as a deterrent, and that decision was made a fait accompli by the political turmoil of Mao's era, which held back the nuclear weapons program.

"China's leaders thought that the important thing was to master the technology," Lewis said. "While the United States did fine calculations of the deterrence balance, Chinese leaders tended to think of deterrence like a checklist of achievements."

Ever since, Chinese nuclear doctrine has stuck to the idea of a "minimum means of reprisal," with a force designed to survive and retaliate after an initial nuclear attack. Alongside that, China has a nuclear "no first use" policy: that it will not be the first to launch nuclear weapons against another nuclear foe, and that it will not use its nuclear weapons against a country without nuclear weapons.

Even so, China has been expanding and upgrading its nuclear forces, and that modernization may speed up if the government feels that it is falling too far behind the United States.

"China is probably confident in its ability to be able to retaliate, but given the size and sophistication of US nuclear forces and the steady development of ballistic missile defenses, coupled with China's small nuclear arsenal, the margin for error is thin," Fravel and Cunningham said.

Why does China fear the anti-missile system?

The Chinese government worries that the US anti-missile system, called the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD+ , could erode its nuclear deterrent - its ability to scare off potential foes from ever considering a nuclear attack.

Its chief worry is not that THAAD could take down missiles: the system offers a canopy of potential protection over South Korea, but does not have the reach to bring down China's intercontinental ballistic missiles. Instead, China's complaint is focused on THAAD's radar system, which Chinese experts have said could be used to track the People's Liberation Army's missile forces.

Deploying THAAD's current radar system "would undermine China's nuclear deterrence by collecting important data on Chinese nuclear warheads," Li Bin, a nuclear weapons expert at Tsinghua University in Beijing, wrote last week.

He and other Chinese experts say the radar could identify which Chinese missiles are carrying decoy warheads intended to outfox foes. That would be like being able to see what cards China holds in a nuclear poker game, and that could weaken China's deterrent, they say.

"For China this is a very important point, because its missiles are limited in number to begin with," Wu Riqiang, a nuclear expert at Renmin University in Beijing. That meant, he said, "China could lose its nuclear retaliatory capacity."

For China, it does not matter that the US and South Korean governments have said THAAD is meant only to foil North Korean missiles, Wu said.

"What we worry about is the ability. It doesn't matter to us whether the United States says this is aimed at North Korea or China," Wu said. "If there's this ability, then China must worry."

Are China's fears justified?

Chinese experts are nearly unanimous in supporting Beijing's criticisms. But quite a few foreign experts say those fears are overstated or unfounded. The United States has access to radar systems in Qatar and Taiwan able to peer at China's missile tests, and Japan has two radar systems just like the one used for THAAD, Lewis said.

"I don't see the deployment of THAAD in South Korea as a significant improvement in the ability of the US to monitor Chinese missile tests," he said.

The Chinese government appears to have an exaggerated view of the THAAD radar's abilities, two experts, Jaganath Sankaran and Bryan L Fearey, wrote in a recent paper. That radar is often said to have a range of about 620 miles. Some Chinese experts say its reach could be much farther.

But in practice the range could be much lower and "not possess the ability to track Chinese strategic missile warheads/decoys," Sankaran and Fearey wrote. "The THAAD radar simply cannot cover the entire or even a substantial part of the Chinese mainland."

China's real, underlying worry appears to be that THAAD could open the door to a much wider, more advanced fence of anti-missile systems arrayed around it by US allies, several experts said. That would magnify Chinese worries about the effectiveness of its nuclear deterrent, and entrench Chinese fears of encirclement+ by a coalition knit together by a shared anti-missile system.

"I think this is what really worries them, because then what you have is the basis for a common interoperable system," said Michael J. Green, former senior director for Asia in the National Security Council under President George W. Bush. "I think it's more about the creation of a virtual collective security system," he said of China's worries about THAAD.

Will China alter its nuclear policy in response to THAAD?

Last week, the Global Times, a nationalist Chinese newspaper, warned in an editorial that China could consider abandoning its "no first use" policy if THAAD leads to other anti-missile systems deemed threatening to China.

But for now at least such threats are bluster, many experts said. China is far from taking a dramatic step like abandoning its bedrock nuclear policy, they said.

"I don't see 'no first use' going soon - at least most responsible officers and officials stick to the policy, despite ongoing debate behind the scenes," said Douglas H Paal, a China expert who worked on the National Security Council under Presidents Ronald Reagan and George Bush.

Instead, China is likely to respond by spending more on its nuclear, missile and anti-missile forces "to ensure survivability of a second-strike force, and expanded penetration aids and decoys to defeat U.S. missile defenses in the event of a second strike," Paal said.

In the shorter term, China may accelerate the introduction of a new generation of missiles, the Dongfeng-41, which can be moved around on roads and will also be able to carry multiple warheads, said Fravel and Cunningham.

China is also working on a "glide technology to alter the trajectory of a warhead as it nears its target, which could be used to overcome U.S. missile defenses in the long term," they said.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 15 Mar 2017 14:11

Taiwan says Chinese military threat grows, US regional strategy unclear - Reuters

China's accelerated military development and recent activity by its military aircraft and ships around Taiwan pose an increased threat to the self-ruled island, according to a Taiwanese government defence report draft reviewed by Reuters.

The 2017 Quadrennial Defence Review (QDR) also highlights the uncertainty over the future strategic direction of the United States in the region, the impact of Japan flexing its military capabilities and "conflict crisis" potential in the disputed South China Sea.

"The recent activity of Chinese jets and ships around Taiwan shows the continued rise in (China's) military threat capabilities," highlighting the importance of Taiwan's need to defend itself, the review will say.

"In addition to posing a military threat to our country, it also has a negative impact on regional stability."

The document is due to be presented to parliament on Thursday by Taiwan defence minister Feng Shih-kuan. The defence ministry had no comment on the report on Wednesday.

The four-yearly review is the first since President Tsai Ing-wen took office last May and the first under her Democratic Progressive Party, which traditionally advocates independence for Taiwan.

"The country's military development and Taiwan's freedom and prosperity are the same living body," according to the draft.

WAYWARD PROVINCE

The QDR comes as China - which claims Taiwan as a wayward province to be taken back by force if necessary - has been stepping up air and sea military exercises in waters surrounding Taiwan as part of a sweeping modernisation of its armed forces.

Speaking in Beijing at his annual news conference on Wednesday, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang repeated that China was resolutely opposed to Taiwan independence but it would uphold peace across the Taiwan Strait.

"No matter how the situation on the island may evolve, the fraternal bond between the two sides cannot be severed and will not be able to change history or the fact that both sides belong to one and the same China," Li said.

Developments in the South China Sea, including rejection of an international court ruling by other claimants on territorial rights of the Philippines in the disputed waters, China's land reclamation and militarisation, and freedom of navigation patrols championed by the United States, could deepen strife in the area, the review will say.

"Sovereignty disputes in the region and strategic competition could intensify, leading to hidden conflict crisis."

China has begun new construction work on a disputed island in the South China Sea, satellite images show, just days ahead of the first official visit to the region by U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.

The review also listed Japan's move away from its pacifist constitution "to strengthen its armaments and lift a ban on using troops abroad" as having deep and far-reaching impacts on the security situation in the Asia-Pacific and the Taiwan Strait.

Reuters reported this week that Japan plans to send its largest warship on a three-month tour through the South China Sea beginning in May - its biggest show of naval force in the region since World War Two.

Among security challenges for Taiwan, the review also said "the United States' Asia-Pacific strategic direction and troop deployment was not clear" under the new administration of President Donald Trump.

Trump provoked consternation in Beijing by taking a congratulatory call from Taiwan's Tsai and then calling into question adherence to the "One China" policy, under which Washington acknowledges the Chinese position that there is only one China and Taiwan is part of it.

Last month, Trump agreed to honour the policy during a phone call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

The United States remains Taiwan's biggest ally and arms supplier and is bound by legislation to provide the means to help the island defend itself.

The review reflected the realities of Taiwan's situation, but wasn't specific enough on how Tsai's government will address budget needs for major indigenous defence programmes or the shrinking number of soldiers in the armed forces, said Chieh Chung, a research fellow in the national security division of Taiwan's National Policy Foundation, a local think tank.

The review affirmed Taiwan's push to develop and build its own submarines, jets and ships, and strengthen its electronic and cyber defences against China.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 15 Mar 2017 17:29

Satellite images show China has begun new construction in disputed South China Sea - Straits Times

China has started fresh construction work in the disputed South China Sea, new satellite images show, a sign that Beijing is continuing to strengthen its military reach across the vital trade waterway.

Regional military attaches and experts believe the work shows China's determination to build up its network of reefs and islets, even if it is seeking to avoid a fresh confrontation with the new administration of US President Donald Trump.

An image of North Island in the Paracels group taken on March 6 shows recent work including land clearing and possible preparation for a harbour to support what experts believe may be eventual military installations. Initial work was damaged in a typhoon last year.

The pictures, provided by private satellite firm Planet Labs, follow reports in January showing work undertaken on nearby Tree Island and other features in the Paracels, which are also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan.

Diplomats briefed on latest Western intelligence assessments say Beijing is pursuing efforts to dominate its maritime "backyard", even if it tweaks the timing of moves to avoid being overtly provocative.

"The Paracels are going to be vital to any future Chinese attempt to dominate the South China Sea," said Carl Thayer, a South China Sea expert at Australia's Defence Force Academy. "We can see they are committed to militarisation, whatever the official rhetoric tells us, even if they are going to do it bit by bit."

UNCERTAINTIES OVER TRUMP

The more widely disputed Spratlys archipelago to the south are higher profile but the Paracels are key to China's presence in the South China Sea, China has in recent years temporarily based surface-to-air missile launchers and crack jet fighters at long established bases on Woody Island on the Paracels, helping protect its nuclear submarine facilities on Hainan Island.

North Island is part of an arc of reefs that are expected to form a protective screen for Woody, which includes civilian facilities and a listening post.

Zhang Baohui, a mainland security expert at Hong Kong's Lingnan University, says he believes China is pursuing long-held goals of strengthening its facilities in the Paracels, and has calculated the Trump administration would not over-react given other pressing priorities.

"There's also uncertainty with this young Trump administration, but this is very important work to the Chinese…the Paracels are vital to defending Hainan, which is in turn important to China's nuclear deterrent," he says. "The calculation here is that it is really only Vietnam that will be rattled by this."

The Vietnamese Foreign Ministry has not responded to requests for comment.

China's Defence Ministry has said it is "not familiar" with any work at North Island. "What needs to be stressed is that the Xisha Islands are China's inherent territory," it has said, using the Chinese name for the Paracels.

China fully occupied the Paracels in 1974 after forcing the navy of the-then South Vietnam off its holdings.

News of fresh Chinese activity comes as Rex Tillerson goes on his first visit to the region as US Secretary of State later this week. Tillerson sparked alarm in Beijing when he said in January that China should not be allowed access to islands it had built in the South China Sea.

A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, is unable to confirm new construction work on North Island but has said it would not be surprising.

"It would be in line with what they have been doing, why else would they clearing land on the islands but for militarisation," the official has said. "There is no other reason to have a presence there."

Diplomatic sources in Beijing say China is not looking for confrontation with the United States over the South China Sea, pointing to China's low-key reaction to last month's patrol of a US aircraft carrier strike group in the waters there.

China has recently sought to portray itself as being conciliatory over the disputed waterway, saying it and South-east Asian nations are committed to a peaceful resolution.

Last week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said a draft code of conduct for behaviour in the South China Sea had now been completed and that tensions had "distinctly dropped".

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 15 Mar 2017 19:01

For China, in order to make sure CPEC is completed through the Indian territory of Jammu and Kashmir, it is necessary to keep the Indian army engaged with some insurgency in the Indian side of LoC.

They need foot-soldiers who can keep the IA engaged. JeM is providing those. With some propaganda, there's an impression created that Army is losing the war. More volunteers joining the insurgency including locals. The surgical strikes was never expected, but it happened, which baffled Chinese gameplan. Also demonetization disrupted the money supply. Now it's back with the FICN, they have effectively crossed the dangers. Narendra Modi's govt is not following up with the recent gains, expect a bloody summer. Chinese have gained upper hand.

Hope NM keeps the morale of IA High.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 16 Mar 2017 08:23

'China-Pakistan economic corridor challenge to India's sovereignty' - Rajat Pandit, ToI

India has expressed strong opposition to the $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, which is the key to Beijing's ambitious 'One-Belt, One-Road' initiative, even as it slammed Islamabad for not taking concrete steps to stop crossborder terrorism.

"The CPEC passing through Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir challenges Indian sovereignty," said the Union defence ministry in its annual report submitted to Parliament on Wednesday.

In the past too, India has criticised the Chinese-funded CPEC, which links China's Muslim dominated Xinjiang province to the Gwadar deep-sea port in Pakistan, because it passes through Gilgit-Baltistan in PoK, which New Delhi considers its own territory.

During the G-20 summit at Hangzhou in September last year, PM Narendra Modi had expressed India's concerns over the CPEC in his bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, holding that the two countries needed to be "sensitive" to each other's strategic interests.

Taking note of China's significant restructuring of its People's Liberation Army to boost its offensive military capabilities, the defence ministry also reiterated India's support for freedom of navigation and overflight, and unimpeached commerce, based on international laws in the contentious South China Sea.

New Delhi has taken to criticising Beijing's strongarm tactics in the South China Sea, even as it slowly but steadily builds military ties with countries like Vietnam, Malaysia and others locked in territorial disputes with China in the region.

"India undertakes various activities, including cooperation in the oil and gas sector, with littoral states of South China Sea (Vietnam, for instance)...India believes that states should resolve disputes through peaceful means....," said the MoD.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 16 Mar 2017 09:39

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/indi ... 99952.html
Missile muscle

Days after India tested its Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile-a 5,000 km range missile that can reach Beijing and deep beyond-in December last year, China's secretive People's Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) conducted an equally significant test. But one that was meant to be under the radar. In January, diplomatic circles in Beijing were abuzz with rumours that the PLARF had carried out its first-ever test of a Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV)-launched on a DF-5C intercontinental ballistic missile-carrying as many as 10 warheads, a capability many experts thought China didn't possess.The reported test was seen as significant as it suggested that China, which is thought to possess some 260 nuclear warheads-more than twice India's estimated 120 but a small fraction of US's 7,000-was moving towards a rapidly expanded stockpile, as a 10-warhead MIRV capability would require.The tests pointed to what many experts say is the elephant in the room and an increasing source of mistrust in India's ties with China. Both sides are rapidly acquiring conventional and nuclear deterrence capabilities, even if China's arsenal still dwarfs India's. But what is remarkable, and a source of concern for experts, is that none of this figures in talks between the countries at any level. The reason, according to Chinese officials and experts, is that Beijing still views India as an 'illegal' nuclear weapons state, and talking would 'legalise' India's statusThere are launchpads in Shigatse (Xigaze), Xaidulla and Gongga, all possibly storing medium-range DF-series missiles that could reach India. Images show Gongga earlier stored HQ-2 surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) but more recent images from 2014 showed HQ-9 SAMs. "The Xaidulla facility, which seems to show 10 underground tunnels, is 250 km from Leh and 850 km from Delhi, so this is very relevant for India," says Col Bhat.Perhaps the most striking of the satellite images is what appears to be a full-scale model of eastern Ladakh and Aksai Chin-for artillery training-in the Helan Shan mountains in northern China. Every little detail of the region, including the Pangong lake and five other water bodies, has been reconstructed in northern China for its troo. "China's view is that such a test violates the UN resolution and is, therefore, illegal," says Shen. "China will not talk to India as that will make India's illegal moves legal." In this uneasy silence, the fear is both countries are likely to only imagine the worst as they pile up their arsenals.

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 16 Mar 2017 15:16

BJP's strong showing in state polls means India will not compromise in international spats: Chinese media

NEW DELHI: The BJP's emphatic win in the state polls in India is not very good news for Beijing, a state-run Chinese news outlet wrote today.

Global Times, the Chinese Communist Party's news outlet that focuses on foreign affairs, said today in an article that a resurgent BJP very likely means "more difficulties in making compromises" with New Delhi in international spats.

PM Narendra Modi's "hard-line attitude" domestically and internationally will only harden, said Global Times. The article also cited other news sources as concluding that the 2019 national polls will be won by the BJP.

"In the international arena, he (PM Modi) changed India's previous attitude of trying never to offend anyone and started to take a clear stance in controversies among other nations to maximize its own interests... If Modi wins the next election, India's current firm and tough manner is bound to continue..., it will likely mean more difficulties in making compromises in rows with other countries," the Global Times article today said.

As an example, the Chinese Communist Party-run outlet cited PM Modi celebrating Diwali with Indian soldiers at the Sino-Indian border.

"Take the border disputes between Beijing and New Delhi. No silver lining has yet emerged and Modi demonstrated his firm stance over the issue by celebrating Diwali, India's biggest holiday, with soldiers at the Sino-Indian border," the news outlet wrote.

It does add though that the Modi government did enhance ties with China and Moscow and applied to be a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Yet, Modi counterbalanced that, strategically.

"Yet he also upgraded defense collaboration with the US and Japan, articulated his support for the US rebalance to the Asia-Pacific strategy and Washington's stance on the South China Sea issue," the state-run outlet writes.

Global Times is still somewhat optimistic, as it defines the qualities of "hardliners", which is what it is implying Modi and the BJP are.

"But while seeming inflexible on the surface, hard-liners also have powerful strength in coming to an agreement with others once they make up their mind, given their executive ability and high efficiency. That said, we can still be optimistic in resolving our divergences, including border disputes, with New Delhi during Modi's term as long as both sides are willing," the article said.
Cheers

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 16 Mar 2017 15:21

lol, Pakis have declared GB as one of their province now, to legitimize CPEC passing through it obviously. Let's see how this hard-line government reacts to that.

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 16 Mar 2017 15:45

^^^That's Master stroke by the Chinese, I must grudgingly appreciate the Chinese. Now that must put a full-stop to Indians claiming sovereignty over PoK. Now we can abrogate article 370 and be content with whatever is still with us, but then again it would be too much to ask from this government.

It's a loss for Pakistan, but then China is their master now. They have to obey the orders of middle Kingdom. Chinese are the masters of geopolitical manipulation now. All calculations that Pakistan would never do that have gone wrong. China won this round comprehensively.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 16 Mar 2017 15:51

well played China indeed, pitting Pk against India while cowering behind in cover.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 16 Mar 2017 16:06

Karthik S wrote:lol, Pakis have declared GB as one of their province now, to legitimize CPEC passing through it obviously. Let's see how this hard-line government reacts to that.

Even if they didnt what would India have done any ways , We neither showed the intention or the courage to get POK since past 25 years spanning many government , All we get of POK is Parliament resolution that it is part of India thats not worth the Toilet Paper.

May be we might get another Parliament resolution condemning Paki having declared GB as one of Province.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Mar 2017 16:26

Reaction just by itself means that we are behind the curve. Reaction means that the opposition is in control of the narrative and is making you dance to its tune. Reaction is a poor choice and can never replace good policy. What is needed is action and not reaction.

This is true for not only the situation evolving in PoK but in every field. Look at BSP/AAP's reaction to their losses in the election or IT industries reaction to the new reality following the Trump election. That is not only desperation but also broadcasting that desperation to the world. We must not come across as desperate in this game.
------------->>
OTOH, Bakis had resisted incorporating GB as a Province for so long because it, in their own assessment IIRC, would dilute their *principled* stand on the whole of Kashmir issues. One needs to ponder why the Bakis held back for so long. Maybe ... just maybe this is the first step towards formalizing LOC == IB under the Chinese pressure, the Chinese maneuvering to secure their investment in Bakistan.

This is not to say that we should settle for LOC == IB if it was offered.
------------->>
Finally, going back to were I started, we must plan for getting back the whole of PoK and not just react to GB being declared a Province of Bakistan. Change of status within Bakistan means nothing. Even if the changed status is accepted by the world it means nothing. Remember Siachen was shown as part of Bakistan by the USGS maps. Remember what is now Bangladesh wasn't even in dispute. If we are determined this is less than useless change.

ranjan.rao · Post by **ranjan.rao** » 17 Mar 2017 05:32

well summarized Pankaj, this act of theirs is as useless as ours condemning them in past or in future. These acts do not change the fact that they have been de facto controlling the area since '48 (why only stop at last 25 years), where is our parliamentary seat for GB and PoK. We have to make a concerted and coherent start: IWT review, balochistan, and any other pain points that we can open..

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 17 Mar 2017 08:47

Karthik S wrote:lol, Pakis have declared GB as one of their province now, to legitimize CPEC passing through it obviously. Let's see how this hard-line government reacts to that.

Seven decades of inaction and deliberate passivity cannot be undone by any hard-line government in three years. That's not fair.

That said, I see the policies followed by all governments so far (including Vajpayee's) in disputes with Pakistan and China as following two very different trajectories. With Pakistan, we have been very patient, forgiving and generous. The only exception is the Modi government but, of late, it also seems to return to the beaten path. With China, we have been cautious but unyielding (including Nehru's) and have always spoken very plainly & candidly (including Man Mohan Singh's), all the while building up painfully incrementally an informal alliance of encirclement.

All Indian governments so far have paid scant attention to the issue of GB even though the strategically important Karakoram Highway (KKH) was built with great effort by China & Pakistan through our territory now under Pakistani occupation. That is where our strategic thinking is found very wanting. The British were very good at protecting us, even if it was with ulterior motives, but independent India was negligent. Curzon had said, "Gilgit is one of the northern gates of India, through which a would-be invader has to advance, if at all'.

It was a British policy to have buffers around the periphery of the Indian Empire protecting it against foreign intrusion. Thus, Afghanistan was a crucial element in the North West against Russian imperialism including the artificially created Wakhan corridor that separated Tajikistan and Gilgit-Baltistan region of the Princely State of Jammu & Kashmir, while Burma played a similar role in the East against the Chinese and the French (from Vietnam) while Tibet played a similar role in the North East against China. Curzon said in his c. 1907 Romanes Lecture on the subject of FRONTIERS the following: “When the annexation of the Punjab had brought the British power to the Indus, and of Sind, to the confines of Beluchistan; when the sale of Kashmir to a protected chief carried the strategical Frontier into the heart of the Himalayas; when the successive absorption of different portions of Burma opened the way to Mandalay, a new Frontier problem faced the Indian Government, and a new ring of Protectorates was formed. The culminating point of this policy on the western side was the signature of the Durand Agreement at Kabul in 1893, by which a line was drawn between the tribes under British and those under Afghan influence for the entire distance from Chitral to Seistan, and the Indian Empire acquired what, as long as Afghanistan retains an independent existence, is likely to remain its Frontier of active responsibility. Over many of these tribes we exercise no jurisdiction, and only the minimum of control; into the territories of some we have so far not even penetrated; but they are on the British side of the dividing line, and cannot be tampered with by any external Power. My own policy in India was to respect the internal independence of these tribes, and to find in their self-interest and employment as Frontier Militia a guarantee both for the security of our inner or administrative borders and also for the tranquillity of the border zone itself. Further to the east and north the chain of Protectorates is continued in Nepal, Sikkim, and Bhutan: on the extreme north-east the annexation of Upper Burma has brought to us the heritage of a fringe
of protected States known as the Upper Shan States.The result in the case of the Indian Empire is probably without precedent, for it gives to Great Britain not a single or double but a threefold Frontier, (1) the administrative border of British India, (2) the Durand Line, or Frontier of active protection, (3) the Afghan border, which is the outer or advanced strategical Frontier.”

There are reasons for the deep friendship between Pakistan and China (and US as well). KKH is one of them, apart from the detente struck between the US and China with Pakistan's help in the early 70s that made China the powerhouse that it is today. Pakistan also allowed China Airlines to operate to its cities when there was an embargo in the sixties on its flights even while being a staunch SEATO member against communism and enjoying the Mutual Defence Assistance Agreement with the US! Pakistan has been able to maintain this duality to its great advantage right through.

Anyway, KKH (like Chinese flights to Pakistan) liberated the Chinese of their claustrophobic existence. It was surrounded by hostile neighbours such as the USSR, Mongolia, Japan, Vietnam, India and Pakistan offered it an escape route. Whether it served any real purpose or not, KKH was the first opening of closed doors all around. We failed to realize the strategic significance of KKH when it was completed as far back as 1978 and remained silent.

Pakistan skillfully projected the Soviet army moving into Afghanistan in 1979 as their advance ultimately to conquer Pakistan in order to gain access to the warm waters of the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean; but, a year earlier, Communist China already had access to these with complete support from Pakistan itself.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 17 Mar 2017 09:13

SSridhar wrote:
Karthik S wrote:lol, Pakis have declared GB as one of their province now, to legitimize CPEC passing through it obviously. Let's see how this hard-line government reacts to that.
Seven decades of inaction and deliberate passivity cannot be undone by any hard-line government in three years. That's not fair.

That said, I see the policies followed by all governments so far (including Vajpayee's) in disputes with Pakistan and China as following two very different trajectories. With Pakistan, we have been very patient, forgiving and generous. The only exception is the Modi government but, of late, it also seems to return to the beaten path. With China, we have been cautious but unyielding (including Nehru's) and have always spoken very plainly & candidly (including Man Mohan Singh's), all the while building up painfully incrementally an informal alliance of encirclement.

All Indian governments so far have paid scant attention to the issue of GB even though the strategically important Karakoram Highway (KKH) was built with great effort by China & Pakistan through our territory now under Pakistani occupation. That is where our strategic thinking is found very wanting. The British were very good at protecting us, even if it was with ulterior motives, but independent India was negligent. Curzon had said, "Gilgit is one of the northern gates of India, through which a would-be invader has to advance, if at all'.

It was a British policy to have buffers around the periphery of the Indian Empire protecting it against foreign intrusion. Thus, Afghanistan was a crucial element in the North West against Russian imperialism including the artificially created Wakhan corridor that separated Tajikistan and Gilgit-Baltistan region of the Princely State of Jammu & Kashmir, while Burma played a similar role in the East against the Chinese and the French (from Vietnam) while Tibet played a similar role in the North East against China. Curzon said in his c. 1907 Romanes Lecture on the subject of FRONTIERS the following: “When the annexation of the Punjab had brought the British power to the Indus, and of Sind, to the confines of Beluchistan; when the sale of Kashmir to a protected chief carried the strategical Frontier into the heart of the Himalayas; when the successive absorption of different portions of Burma opened the way to Mandalay, a new Frontier problem faced the Indian Government, and a new ring of Protectorates was formed. The culminating point of this policy on the western side was the signature of the Durand Agreement at Kabul in 1893, by which a line was drawn between the tribes under British and those under Afghan influence for the entire distance from Chitral to Seistan, and the Indian Empire acquired what, as long as Afghanistan retains an independent existence, is likely to remain its Frontier of active responsibility. Over many of these tribes we exercise no jurisdiction, and only the minimum of control; into the territories of some we have so far not even penetrated; but they are on the British side of the dividing line, and cannot be tampered with by any external Power. My own policy in India was to respect the internal independence of these tribes, and to find in their self-interest and employment as Frontier Militia a guarantee both for the security of our inner or administrative borders and also for the tranquillity of the border zone itself. Further to the east and north the chain of Protectorates is continued in Nepal, Sikkim, and Bhutan: on the extreme north-east the annexation of Upper Burma has brought to us the heritage of a fringe
of protected States known as the Upper Shan States.The result in the case of the Indian Empire is probably without precedent, for it gives to Great Britain not a single or double but a threefold Frontier, (1) the administrative border of British India, (2) the Durand Line, or Frontier of active protection, (3) the Afghan border, which is the outer or advanced strategical Frontier.”

There are reasons for the deep friendship between Pakistan and China (and US as well). KKH is one of them, apart from the detente struck between the US and China with Pakistan's help in the early 70s that made China the powerhouse that it is today. Pakistan also allowed China Airlines to operate to its cities when there was an embargo in the sixties on its flights even while being a staunch SEATO member against communism and enjoying the Mutual Defence Assistance Agreement with the US! Pakistan has been able to maintain this duality to its great advantage right through.

Anyway, KKH (like Chinese flights to Pakistan) liberated the Chinese of its claustrophobic existence. It was surrounded by hostile neighbours such as the USSR, Mongolia, Japan, Vietnam, India and Pakistan offered it an escape route. Whether it served any real purpose or not, KKH was the first opening of closed doors all around. We failed to realize the strategic significance of KKH when it was completed as far back as 1978 and remained silent.

Pakistan skillfully projected the Soviet army moving into Afghanistan in 1979 as their advance ultimately to conquer Pakistan in order to gain access to the warm waters of the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean; but, a year earlier, Communist China already had access to these with complete support from Pakistan itself.

OK, because we are all looking at china angle to this (and we should), just have this query, if we were to take PoK sometime in near future, how far will the chinese get involved in this, will they also be an active party in the conflict to protect $46B investment and risk escalating the conflict in other fronts? Or will they do what they do best, supply the pakis with everything they need to stop us reclaim our area. With their military presence increasing in Baluchistan in coming years, is our window of reclaiming occupied kashmir closing because of that.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 17 Mar 2017 09:27

Karthik S, IMO, they will go to war with India, may not be on our eastern frontiers but within Pakistan, in GB and the rest of POK. Pakistan is today a province of China. Period. Pakistan has willingly conceded this position to China. After 26/11, Pakistan authorized China to conduct negotiations with India on its behalf! For China, CPEC is a template whose success would be replicated elsewhere and that is how it plans to come out of the great economic downturn it is undergoing. Xi Jinping and the Politburo's lives hinge on this. One reason for inviting India (practically pleading with us) to join CPEC and touting it as a great example of intra-regional cooperation beneficial to all, was to subsume the question about GB and use India's participation as a fait-accompli. That is why they have now forced Pakistan to announce GB as the fifth province, something Pakistan has always been reluctant to do for seven decades! The Chinesse don't want any uncertainty as they find India upping the ante on this issue. Having gone to this extent, China would not simply stand by if India triess to take over GB. Xi & Co. wanted much more progress in CPEC by this time than what has been achieved (practically very little) before the grand 60-nation OBOR meeting in May, but that is not to be. Of course, there are other reasons for CPEC as well.

GShankar · Post by **GShankar** » 17 Mar 2017 09:41

India's plan should be to defang china. Only that could guarantee a successful acquisition of the remainder of Kashmir.

IMO china would have already laid some traps at UN, US, Russia, etc. if we were to go crying. Anticipating that, we should just lodge official complaint and take aggressive measure to counter china. This is the kind of event that should lead us to help liberate Balochistan and Sindh first, then slowly move into Tibet.

Hope we are planning something serious.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 17 Mar 2017 10:44

Pak army chief on 1st visit to China, meets top leaders - PTI

China's top leadership has assured Pakistan army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa that they completely understood the geopolitical, economic and security situation in the region and its implications for the two "all- weather" friends, the Pakistan Army said on Thursday.

The assurance was given to Gen. Bajwa as he met senior Chinese leaders and the military leadership on his maiden visit to Beijing where he discussed a range of issues, including defence cooperation, regional security situation and the ambitious China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Pakistan military spokesman Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor said.

"COAS arrived in China on a 3-day official visit. Meets Chinese senior political & military leadership. Pak-China friendship is unique with no parallel," Ghafoor tweeted.

Bajwa called on Chinese Executive Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, Gen Fan Changlong, Chief of Joint Services Department, Gen Fang Fenghui and Commander of the People's Liberation Army Gen Li Zhuocheng and discussed topics like regional security, economy defence cooperation and other issues of mutual interest.

"The Chinese leadership expressed complete understanding of the geo-political and economic-cum-security environment of the region and its implications for both the countries," a statement issued by the Pakistani military said.

"They acknowledged the positive role being played by Pakistan towards peace and stability in the region with special mention of Pakistan's role in eliminating terrorist groups including Al Qaeda, Tehreek-e-Taliban and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) from Pakistan," it said.

The ETIM is an Islamic extremist separatist organisation founded by Uyghur jihadists in western China. It has training camps in Pakistan and Beijing has been pressing Islamabad to destroy the units operating in the country, posing a threat to the stability of China's restive region of Xinjiang.

During the meetings, the Chinese leadership also expressed their concern on the security situation in Afghanistan and the growing potential threat of Islamic State and ETIM in that country, the statement said.

"The Chinese leadership expressed their confidence in security arrangements for the $46 billion CPEC and satisfaction on progress made on the project, it said.

During the meeting between Vice-Premier Zhang and Gen Bajwa, the two sides agreed to advance the CPEC project, China's state run Xinhua news agency reported.

Zhang lauded the rapid development of China-Pakistan ties, saying bilateral cooperation not only benefits the two peoples, but also contributes to regional peace and stability.

He called on the two sides to maintain close high-level contact and strengthen coordination on international and regional affairs, to lift bilateral ties to new heights.

Zhang also suggested that the two countries should enhance defence and security cooperation and push forward the building of the CPEC in an orderly manner, the report said.

Gen. Bajwa said Pakistan views the relations with China as the cornerstone of its foreign policy and its army will always be a staunch supporter of bilateral friendship.

To ensure the smooth construction of the CPEC, the Pakistan armed forces will resolutely safeguard its security, he said.

Masood Khalid, Pakistani Ambassador to China has been quoted by the official media here as saying recently that the Pakistan "has done everything" to ensure the safety about 19,000 Chinese working on different projects in the country.

Pakistan has deployed more than 15,000 troops to protect the CPEC, and the country's navy has raised a special contingent for the protection of the strategic Gwadar Port.

The Chinese military has also announced plans to increase marine corps from 20,000 to one lakh, some whom will be deployed in Gwadar which connects CPEC with China's Xinjiang province being laid through the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

During the meetings, Gen Bajwa thanked the Chinese leadership for the support Pakistan has received in the defence sector which is a "source of strength" for the unique "all weather" friendship between the two countries, the ISPR statement said.

Gen Bajwa "reiterated that Pakistan Army shall continue to positively contribute towards regional stability and security" and also thanked the Chinese military for sending a PLA contingent for participation in Pakistan Day Parade on March 23 in Rawalpindi.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 17 Mar 2017 11:22

China to 'authorise' Pakistan to build missiles, tanks, FC-1 Xiaolong combat aircraft - Shailaja Neelakantan, ToI

In what will come as bad news for India, 'all-weather friends' China and Pakistan are set to not just increase weapons exchanges, the former is also expected to 'authorise' the latter to produce ballistic, cruise, anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles, and battle tanks, China's state-run media reported late yesterday.

The weapons exchanges include the mass production of FC-1 Xiaolong, a lightweight and multi-role combat aircraft developed jointly by the two countries, reported Global Times, the Chinese Communist Party's news outlet. The two sides also agreed to strengthen anti-terrorism cooperation and strike terrorist forces including China's insurgent East Turkestan Islamic Movement.

These were the outcomes of yesterday's meeting in Beijing between Pakistan's army chief+ Qamar Bajwa and a top Chinese military official, Fang Fenghui. In exchange for Beijing's largesse, Islamabad agreed to ensure the safety of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)+ .

"As Pakistan faces frequent threats from terrorist forces such as the Taliban and al-Qaeda, military support is necessary to ensure a safe environment for the regions where there is huge investment from China", said Song Zhongping, a military expert who has served in the Chinese army, to Global Times.

Pakistan's Bajwa is reported to have said the country's army is willing to "deepen the cooperation with the Chinese army and fully support the Quadrilateral Cooperation and Coordination Mechanism in Counter Terrorism by Afghanistan-China-Pakistan-Tajikistan Armed Forces."

kit · Post by **kit** » 17 Mar 2017 11:29

India should never recognise Gilgit baltistan as a state of Pakistan. All maps should refer to this a Pakistan occupied Kashmir.. Visitors from these regions will not get regular visa ..only stapled permits .. and that's for starters. .India must issue an official report on this.

kit · Post by **kit** » 17 Mar 2017 11:32

India is not bothered by what they co produce ..it's just another Chinese province to be "taken care of "

kit · Post by **kit** » 17 Mar 2017 11:35

Without India CPEC will be a cropper .. And this time India must issue a demarche against any Indian business any MNC in India from dealing with Chinese ports in Sri Lanka and Pakistan

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 17 Mar 2017 12:06

Abrogate article 370, and make J&k another Hyderabad

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 17 Mar 2017 17:45

‘China should take a fresh look at ties with India’ - Atul Aneja, The Hindu

A leading Chinese daily affiliated with the People’s Daily on Thursday signalled that China should take a fresh look at its ties with India following the recent assembly elections, which demonstrate the likelihood of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s long-term dominance over Indian politics.

An op-ed in the Global Times on Thursday said the BJP’s “sweeping electoral victory in Uttar Pradesh” has “not only increased Modi’s chance to win the 2019 general elections, some even predict he is already set for a second term”.

It highlighted that since “Beijing-New Delhi ties have recently entered a subtle and delicate phase, observers soon started to pay close attention to how the bilateral relationship will develop after Modi tightens his grip on power”.

Signalling the need for re-thinking, the daily said China should read the changes in India as “an opportunity to give more consideration over how to make breakthroughs in Beijing-New Delhi relations with a hard-line Indian government”.

Strong support

Long Xingchun, Director of Center of India Studies, China West Normal University, told The Hindu that the recent elections embody “the eagerness of the Indian people to pursue development and this has resulted in strong support for Mr. Modi”. He added; “[Mr.] Modi is becoming a strong leader with people’s support. This would enable him to make bold decisions to solve major problems with China.”

Separately, a detailed analysis in the Shanghai-based Guancha Syndicate notes that the elections results show the “general trend of the BJP’s rising momentum”. It points out that Mr. Modi’s distinct brand of “developmentalism” has a unique appeal, as voters are tired of old zero sum games and want to achieve caste reconciliation. The website lauds the “people orientation” in Mr. Modi’s campaign which managed to mobilise women and breach the traditional “rich-upper caste-male” electoral formula.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 18 Mar 2017 05:08

http://insider.foxnews.com/2017/03/17/n ... aggression
Amb. Haley: China Must Prove to Us It Wants to Stop North Korean Aggression

taking a new, tougher approach toward China in an effort to deter North Korean aggression.

Haley talked with Bill Hemmer amid Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's first trip to the region. Speaking from the Korean Demilitarized Zone, Tillerson told Fox News that "nothing has been taken off the table" when it comes to dealing with the rogue regime.
He also refused to rule out increased weaponization and even nuclearization of America’s East Asian allies to counter Pyongyang's advancement of its nuclear and ballistic missile programs."Don't just tell us you do. Prove it. It's gotta be real proof," said Haley, calling on Beijing to push for more sanctions and renewed negotiations.She said North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un is conducting increased missile tests and is suspected of ordering the assassination of his estranged half-brother at a Malaysian airport."These are problems. It shows they are not listening and that nothing has worked," said Hale

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 19 Mar 2017 12:40

INDIA growing Military (Chinese media)

Check out how the Chinese media is analyzing Indian mil strength

They seem to be attracted to acrobatics and maybe mocking it!

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 19 Mar 2017 12:43

SSridhar wrote:‘China should take a fresh look at ties with India’ - Atul Aneja, The Hindu
A leading Chinese daily affiliated with the People’s Daily on Thursday signalled that China should take a fresh look at its ties with India following the recent assembly elections, which demonstrate the likelihood of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s long-term dominance over Indian politics.

A major discussion has started inside China about India

They were used to weak govts in India and now they are getting worried

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 19 Mar 2017 17:21

^ The Chinese are already feeling that the usual meek Indian leaders who were cautious and unwilling to upset anybody have given way to a new breed now. This was stated openly and posted here before.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 19 Mar 2017 22:24

Chinese defense minister to visit Sri Lanka, Nepal

Chinese Defence Minister Chang Wanquan left on Sunday for official visits to Sri Lanka and Nepal, the Defence Ministry said, trips that could unnerve neighboring India.

China is vying to increase its influence in Nepal, which serves as a natural buffer between China and India, challenging India's long-held position as the dominant outside power in the landlocked nation.

China has also invested heavily in Sri Lanka, funding airports, roads, railways and ports, and including the island nation of 21 million people on its "One Belt, One Road" mission to create a modern-day "Silk Road" across Asia.

The ministry, in a short statement, said Deputy Naval Chief Su Zhiqian would accompany Chang.

It gave no other details.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 20 Mar 2017 15:31

India should adopt more pragmatic attitude towards OBOR: Chinese daily - PTI

India should adopt a "more pragmatic" attitude towards One Belt One Road initiative, a state-run Chinese daily said today, claiming international support for President Xi Jinping's pet project that figured in a UN resolution.

"Despite concerns from India, broader support has been given to the OBOR (One Belt One Road) from the international community," an article in the ruling Communist Party of China run Global Times said today.

Stating that more countries and international organisations welcome the OBOR and see joining it as an opportunity to promote economic growth, it said India should handle the OBOR issue more carefully.

Referring to a former American official terming the previous US administration's opposition to the establishment of China sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) a "strategic mistake," the daily said, "it is hoped that India could learn a lesson from the US and adopt a more pragmatic attitude toward the OBOR".

"If New Delhi is unable to persuade other nations to abandon the OBOR, one practical approach is to get involved in the initiative in a bid to promote the development of the OBOR in a direction that is favourable to India," it said.

"The dispute over Kashmir between India and Pakistan makes New Delhi habitually vigilant against any possibility of large-scale foreign investment flowing into the region, but it is necessary to learn to distinguish activities between normal commercial investment and ones that could violate India's sovereignty," it said.

President Xi's pet initiative, the OBOR includes a maze of connectivity projects connecting China with Euro Asia besides the neighbourhood. It includes 21st century Maritime Silk Road to connect China with different ports in the world as well as the $46 billion CPEC and the Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM).

The CPEC is a mega network of roads, rail links, power plants and other infrastructure connecting western China's Xinjiang province to Pakistan's southern port of Gwadar.

"Both the OBOR and the CPEC are economic initiatives. Hopefully India will wake up to the benefits and adopt an open attitude toward joining the initiatives," the daily said.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 20 Mar 2017 17:54

China to take part in Brahmaputra festival - The Hindu

The five-day Brahmaputra river festival titled Namami Brahmaputra organised by the BJP-led government in Assam, will witness significant participation from China.

According to the event organisers, described as the “biggest river festival of India,” various other countries such as Vietnam and Singapore are also attending.

The Brahmaputra, 2,900 km long, is an international river with 918 km of it flowing in India, 1625 km in China and 337 km in Bangladesh. “We have received confirmation from the Chinese officials regarding their participation. A team of delegates from China will take part in a trade seminar at the festival,” director of Assam’s Inland Water Transport B.B. Dev Chowdhury said.

The festival will begin on March 31 with an event scheduled to be inaugurated by President Pranab Mukherjee.

“We are also trying to ensure Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s presence during the festival,” said Mr. Chowdhury.