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PostPosted: 28 May 2006 02:30 
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Rudradev, Rye,

As Prem says, the weakest link in the lattice is Pakistan. Provided India's stated position is that it will hold all parties responsible for any JDAM on its soil, water will always flow to the lowest level. That lowest level is Pakistan and not India. That position will also help let India keep control of the escalation ladder provided it has a survivable second strike capability. A JDAM could be construed by India as a first strike.


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PostPosted: 28 May 2006 02:47 
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ldev wrote:
That lowest level is Pakistan and not India. That position will also keep control of the escalation ladder in India's control provided it has a survivable second strike capability. A JDAM could be construed by India as a first strike.


Yes, that is how it should be. Only it isn't, because of the other thing KS mentions in his article... the Donnelly Stranglehold. This is an "end run" Pakistan has devised for itself up the escalation ladder to directly blackmail the United States.

KS' reading of the Donnelly paper clearly implies that US' ability to protect itself from an Al-Qaeda JDAM depends 400% on ensuring the survival of Mush's tush, the Pakistan military regime, and its ability to maintain full control over Paki nukes. If India retaliates with nukes against Isloo & co. when a Paki JDAM goes off in an Indian city, that survivability is grossly threatened, and the likelihood that Al-Keedas will sneak off with a Paki nuke in the ensuing chaos magnified enormously.

Hence: the US will do everything in its power to prevent India from retaliating against Pakistan in an existential manner for a JDAM attack against India. Quite likely, upto and including a nuclear strike against India to cripple our retaliatory capacity.

And at present, there is nothing we can do to deter them.


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PostPosted: 28 May 2006 02:52 
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The important missing ingredient in the debate is that Indian " control" the the button of escalation and diffusion. (Gandhi Pardox)
Simple dehati/desi wisdom say do the manipulation to extract maximum benefits and when or if the panga starts "must" have enough to dish out to every quarelling party... to stop before Panga starts.
BTW Islamists can be controlled easily by threating what they hold dear--ISlam.Noone gonna cry over there convertion into vapourized dimention.


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PostPosted: 28 May 2006 03:01 
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Rudradev wrote:
ldev wrote:
That lowest level is Pakistan and not India. That position will also keep control of the escalation ladder in India's control provided it has a survivable second strike capability. A JDAM could be construed by India as a first strike.


Yes, that is how it should be. Only it isn't, because of the other thing KS mentions in his article... the Donnelly Stranglehold. This is an "end run" Pakistan has devised for itself up the escalation ladder to directly blackmail the United States.

KS' reading of the Donnelly paper clearly implies that US' ability to protect itself from an Al-Qaeda JDAM depends 400% on ensuring the survival of Mush's tush, the Pakistan military regime, and its ability to maintain full control over Paki nukes. If India retaliates with nukes against Isloo & co. when a Paki JDAM goes off in an Indian city, that survivability is grossly threatened, and the likelihood that Al-Keedas will sneak off with a Paki nuke in the ensuing chaos magnified enormously.

Hence: the US will do everything in its power to prevent India from retaliating against Pakistan in an existential manner for a JDAM attack against India. Quite likely, upto and including a nuclear strike against India to cripple our retaliatory capacity.

And at present, there is nothing we can do to deter them.


Hmm, this is very weak reasoning. If the survival or destruction of pardigm depend on Indian action, then we have lot more room to manouver to our advanatages.
What is the gurrantee that AQ terrorists wont get BB (big bum) till kingdom come.Pukes are not the onlee source.


Last edited by Jhujar on 28 May 2006 09:58, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: 28 May 2006 03:13 
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Prem wrote:

Hmm, this is very waek reasoning. If the survival or destruction of pardigm depend on Indian action, then we have lot more room to manouver to our advanatages.


Such as?

Quote:
What is the gurrantee that AQ terrorists wont get BB (big bum) till kingdom come.Pukes are not the onlee source.


No guarantee that the world will not end tomorrow either. Pukes may not be the onlee source but they are by far the most likelee source.

America will be very certain to ensure that AlQ do not get hold of a Pakistani nuke by any and all necessary means. That will not change just because there is some distant possibility that AlQ could also get nukes from somewhere else. According to Donnelly, that means America will do everything to ensure the continuing survival of the Mush/TSPA regime... including the prevention of Indian retaliation against a Paki JDAM, by any and all necessary means.


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PostPosted: 28 May 2006 03:38 
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>Hence: the US will do everything in its power to prevent India from retaliating against Pakistan in an existential manner for a JDAM attack against India. Quite likely, upto and including a nuclear strike against India to cripple our retaliatory capacity.

And at present, there is nothing we can do to deter them


Rudradev,

Let me understand your thought process:

1. A JDAM goes off in India.

2. To prevent India from nuking Pakistan, the US nukes India.

3. India can do nothing about this because India does not have a Surya.

Let me now point out the flaws in this process:

1. Pakistan has far fewer nukes compared to India.

2. As such it is far easier for the US to be certain that it has taken out all Pakistani nukes by attacking Pakistan rather than attacking India and risking that 20% of the 1000 Indian nukes survive such an attack.

3. Because if those 200 Indian nukes are intact and and even without the Surya, India determines that the US was responsible, India can cause enough damage to the world including vital US interests such as Middle Eastern oil and its industrialized partners such that the world economic system will collapse.

4. On the other hand with active collaboration from India, it will be far easier to takeout the balance of the Pakistani nukes that the US currently does not monitor.

5. If you were making US policy and had these two choices i.e. neutralize 1000 Indian nukes or 5-20 Pakistani nukes which the US does not monitor, what will be the easier target to go after?

6. After launching a strike on India, the US does not have any guarantee that India does not have a few modified PSLV launchers tipped with a 200KT warhead which do not have a 12,000 km range.

With all of these imponderables, would it not be simpler to neutralize those 5-20 Pakistani nukes?


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PostPosted: 28 May 2006 03:48 
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ldev wrote:
Quote:
2. As such it is far easier for the US to be certain that it has taken out all Pakistani nukes by attacking Pakistan rather than attacking India and risking that 20% of the 1000 Indian nukes are intact.

3. Because if those 200 Indian nukes are intact and and even without the Surya, India determines that the US was responsible, India can cause enough damage to the world including vital US interests such as Middle Eastern oil and its industrialized partners such that the world economic system will collapse.


ldev,

This reasoning seems pretty bogus because taking out country X,Y, or Z may cause indirect effects on the US, but the US would still be sitting pretty because India cannot threaten the US directly. Going by the same reasoning, bombing the US would hurt China's vital interests, but that line of reasoning is clearly bogus.

Without delivery mechanisms that make a credible deterrent against entities that will protect pakistan and the islamofascists purely to save their own skin or to further their geopolitical interests, it does not matter if India has 100 nukes or 10000 nukes.

Quote:
With all of these imponderables, would it not be simpler to neutralize those 5-20 Pakistani nukes?


If that was the case, wouldn't the US have neutralized the Paki nukes already? No, not only is the US not doing any such thing, they are actively colluding in covering up Pakistan's nuke trail worldwide. Why choose that line of action given the circumstances?


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PostPosted: 28 May 2006 03:54 
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Rye,

Read my point 6 added later. All that one can conclude is that India has created enough ambiguity to give pause. Pushing any harder at this point of time will be counter productive. Note how subtle signals have to be i.e. Agni 3 is not yet tested but unveiled with photographs. The message would have certainly reached the intended recepient.


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PostPosted: 28 May 2006 04:02 
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ldev wrote:

Quote:
6. After launching a strike on India, the US does not have any guarantee that India does not have a few modified PSLV launchers tipped with a 200KT warhead which do not have a 12,000 km range.


ldev,

That assumes that such technology would have gone through sufficient testing and validation for India to be sure of the quality of such a deterrent. Any engineer in any field knows that the bottomline is adequate testing and benchmarking to assure that such a deterrent will work -- note that if such a deterrent is being used for the first time in the heat of hostility, chances are close to certainty that it will not work...and if it does not, we have just invited retribution without causing any damage on the adversary or to the main culprits behind a JDAM attack on India.

Under such circumstances, it would be better to not make such an attack at all against the US or anyone else, and just suck it up. In fact, it would be wiser to not spend that money on expensive missiles and nukes that will not be tested or tried out until it is too late.


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PostPosted: 28 May 2006 04:09 
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>If that was the case, wouldn't the US have neutralized the Paki nukes already? No, not only is the US not doing any such thing, they are actively colluding in covering up Pakistan's nuke trail worldwide. Why choose that line of action given the circumstances?

Rye,

If you read various news items and articles since 9/11, the conclusion seems to be that the US monitors *most* but not all Pakistani nukes. This is obviously a sensitive subject and is shrouded in secrecy. The tricky part appears to be the balance of nukes which are not monitored. No US president will want to initiate a move which has a less than 100% chance of success in coralling the balance nukes. Because failure could result in a JDAM via a deliberate handover of a warhead or two by the Pakistani military to AQ in the so called *resultant confusion*. That is the nuclear blackmail which KS is referring to.

On the other hand if the Pakistani military initiates an offensive move against the US there will be no choice but for a US President to respond irrespective of whether that results in a 100% coralling of Pakistani nukes - that will be politically acceptable unlike the former.

An SLBM capability gives India the same deterrence value.


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PostPosted: 28 May 2006 04:19 
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ldev wrote:
>Hence: the US will do everything in its power to prevent India from retaliating against Pakistan in an existential manner for a JDAM attack against India. Quite likely, upto and including a nuclear strike against India to cripple our retaliatory capacity.

And at present, there is nothing we can do to deter them


Rudradev,

Let me understand your thought process:

1. A JDAM goes off in India.

2. To prevent India from nuking Pakistan, the US nukes India.

3. India can do nothing about this because India does not have a Surya.

Let me now point out the flaws in this process:

1. Pakistan has far fewer nukes compared to India.



Evidence? Or more calculations? I've heard estimates of 40-90 nukes each. Only a fool would place all his bets and do all his risk calculations on the assumption that India has 1000 nuclear warheads armed and ready to go, when far more conservative estimates exist, and when no certifiable information is available either way.

Quote:
2. As such it is far easier for the US to be certain that it has taken out all Pakistani nukes by attacking Pakistan rather than attacking India and risking that 20% of the 1000 Indian nukes survive such an attack.


Again, not at all certain. Firstly, this is based on the highly questionable re-iteration of the "1000 nukes" figure once more.

Secondly, a nuclear attack on Pakistan that cripples the military regime and plunges the country into ungovernable chaos makes it *more* likely, not less, that Al Qaeda will get their hands on dirty-bomb material at the very least, if not functioning nukes. That is because of the nature of the Pakistani state, already crawling with Al-Qaeda and its sympathizers up to the top ranks of its intelligence community, as opposed to the Indian state. All tantamount to an unacceptable risk for the United States.

Thirdly, by various estimates the Pakistani nuclear arsenal is diffused. There may very well be Pakistani nuclear assets in KSA, certainly there are some in China, and there may even be some in other nations involved in the AQ Khan chain so far... Malaysia? Iran? This is the basis on which Pakistan has assured its own second-strike capability vs. India. Merely nuking the hell out of Pakistan far from ensures that all Pakistani nuclear weapons will be destroyed and therefore secure. As opposed to India whose nuclear assets lie entirely within the borders of India itself.


Quote:
3. Because if those 200 Indian nukes are intact and and even without the Surya, India determines that the US was responsible, India can cause enough damage to the world including vital US interests such as Middle Eastern oil and its industrialized partners such that the world economic system will collapse.


You do realize the time frame we are talking about here. Even assuming that India had 1000 nukes, and 200 survived a US attack (with perhaps upto 5000 warheads involved)... how many of the 200 would be in the form of launch-ready warheads? How many of the alleged 1000 are, in the first place? As far as I know they're all kept de-mated. In the horrible aftermath of a US nuclear attack on India, could the GOI conceivably start putting together 200 warheads and missiles without US detection and then prepare to aim them at US interests without anyone noticing? What would have become of our counter-intel and logistical capability by that point? .Could we even do that in the aftermath of a single Pakistani JDAM attack, and launch them against Pakistan before we were stopped?

Assuredly if the US saw us readying our alleged 200 surviving nukes to launch at their interests, another strike would come to wipe out whatever was left. And this time around we'd be far more defenceless

However you look at it, only the development of a fully functional and deployed Surya arsenal, ready to launch within hours, provides any reasonable deterrence from this kind of scenario.


Quote:
4. On the other hand with active collaboration from India, it will be far easier to takeout the balance of the Pakistani nukes that the US currently does not monitor.


See (2) for why there is nothing easy about doing so, to an extent that will secure all possibility of an Al-Q nuke attack on the US.

Quote:
5. If you were making US policy and had these two choices i.e. neutralize 1000 Indian nukes or 5-20 Pakistani nukes which the US does not monitor, what will be easier target to go after?


If I were making US policy I would have nuked Pakistan already, on September 12th 2001 :) . However, that's beside the point.

If I had hard evidence that India had 1000 nukes, I would pressure and pressure the Indians to cut down their arsenal, to produce less and less fissile material, and try to prevent them from ever acquiring the capability to threaten the US with those nukes in any manner. Given that the Indians are greedy SOBs who like money very much, that's easy enough to do... hold out tall promises of energy security and economic superpowerdom and watch them make all the concessions. (Sound familiar?) I would make sure, in other words, that those nukes never became a threat to the US, because then I would have the option of making sure that they were never a threat to Pakistan either.

Pakistan is an entirely different problem... the same leverages do not even begin to apply. So simplistic number games of "1000" Indian nukes vs. "5-20" :shock: Pakistani nukes are hardly the basis on which I would decide how to go about dealing with it. The delivery system of a Pakistani nuke against the US is JDAM... it has nothing to do with any "conventional" deterrence mechanism. By its very irrationality and unresponsiveness to conventional deterrence mechanisms, I cannot predict what will happen in the ensuing chaos after I wage a nuclear strike on Pakistan. Indian nukes I can destroy with my own nuclear missiles if I act fast enough... leaving the Indians without any delivery options. A couple of jihadis with a suitcase? Far from certain.


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PostPosted: 28 May 2006 04:42 
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Rudradev,

Let us agree to disagree on this issue. I do not believe that the US will fire off hundreds of missiles at India immediately after a JDAM goes off in India because it is afraid that the resultant Indian response may result in one or two Pakistani warheads walking away. Even if those warheads walk away, they have to reach the US and that is not going to be easy, especially after US intelligence knows that they are loose and all the monitoring that is done at US entry points and in fact from a lot of ports/airports around the world for cargo/passengers bound for the US. So for the US to initiate a nuclear holucast on India involving a few hundred missiles because one or two Pakistani nukes may get lost and may reach the US is not a very realistic assumption notwithstanding veiled Pakistani threats to that effect.


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PostPosted: 28 May 2006 06:20 
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The Indian response to a JDAM has to be faster than the hour it will take in the hypothetical scenario for the US to nuke India. Once Pakistan is nuked, any reason for the US to nuke India goes away, the US might as well try to finish off all the Paki nukes.


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PostPosted: 28 May 2006 06:31 
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vsudhir wrote:
Here's why.
A nuke going off is simply too HUGE an event for common janta not to get roused.
...
That said, Jehadi nukes are likely to be used in conjunction with a buildup of ISI inspired and aggravated sedition,
...
I'd find it hard to believe that when you "blame islam" as in you're not going to get a cornered-animal response from the more excitable elements among the IMs, with broad support from the rest of the IMs.


Like many others on this thread you are speaking of a scenario AFTER a Jihadi Detonated Atomic Munition goes off in India.

I am basically referring to at least one of the things that needs to be done BEFORE such an event.

The fact that Jihadis with a nuke from Pakistan may do this has to become public knowledge beforehand - as in "NOW", and the fact that a jihadi - with variable degrees of support from Islamic nations may do this has to be blamed fairly and squarely on the Islamism factor and Pakistan- NOW. Why is everyone waiting for a bomb to go off. Evoke a response NOW and talk about starting responses before it happens.

Besides boss - I can't really see why we, who should be behaving like cornered animals, are not actually doing that now. If the nuke threat is serious - we should be behaving like cornered animals right now - or else it's a joke - timepass as it were. Only the behaviour of cornered animals indicates real fear.


Last edited by shiv on 28 May 2006 07:39, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: 28 May 2006 07:37 
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ldev wrote:
Rudradev,
I do not believe that the US will fire off hundreds of missiles at India immediately after a JDAM goes off in India because it is afraid that the resultant Indian response may result in one or two Pakistani warheads walking away.


I agree with this for the simple reason that Indian warheads too might walk away under such circumstances - leading to an increase, rather than a decrease in the ambulatory potential of warheads, even as the US expends a whole lot of effort in trying to get Indian warheards.

Taking out Indian C&C and preventing an Indian response without getting Indian warheads leads to the same result.


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PostPosted: 28 May 2006 08:52 
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I tend to agree with ldev. Although disabling just the ME (from an oil perspective) may not be enough to cripple US interests, it will be enough to shut down Japan and therefore tangentially impact the US.

Also, why is that no one seems to have accounted for the naval segment for India - is it because it is not there today or does anyone foresee US stopping that too?

I think India can do enough damage to the world economy as is.


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PostPosted: 28 May 2006 09:05 
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LDev, all right, we shall agree to disagree. Note that there is a distinction here... the US might not immediately respond with a nuclear strike on India as soon as a JDAM goes off (that is the Beg paradigm, a different situation) but it will do everything in its power to stop India retaliating, upto and including a nuclear strike if it feels that one from us against the Pakis is imminent. Let me just leave you with this scenario:

First, envision this. Reeling from the devastating aftermath of a US nuclear strike, the Government of India flounders to mate what's left of its warheads and delivery systems together, secretly, in the worst imaginable conditions. Whatever retaliation their struggles might yield, even if successful, will never be capable of threatening the United States proper.


Now, envision this. Several small teams of Jehadis armed with suitcase nukes, absconding and scattering far beyond the borders of Pakistan, by the very moment the first JDAM goes off in an Indian city.
They fully expect the destruction of their homeland and have absolutely nothing to lose.

If you were a US security planner, which nightmare would you pick?

Shiv: But we are not cornered animals, we are people, the people who said "Hunooz Dilli Door Asth", the people of Mir Jafar and Jai Chand and Ambhi Raja who would like to make hay while the sun shines and run for it when the storm breaks, leaving those in our charge to their fates. We revile and sabotage the few heroes that arise from our number with envious slander and a view to narrow personal gain, then bemoan our misdeeds in sorrowful ballads wracked with guilt and self-loathing for aeons afterwards.

You start shouting about "JDAM is going to happen" and there will be no end of vested interests out to silence you. After it actually happens, those that are left will sing the Shiv-katha to their three eyed, limbless and leukemic offspring. Until then nothing.


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PostPosted: 28 May 2006 09:31 
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Rudradev wrote:

Shiv: But we are not cornered animals, we are people,


Well better to leave out semantics. If we are people - then so are Indian muslims - whom some other member (not you) felt would act like cornered animals, and you are responding to my reply to that member. Let me leave this bit out because its gets us nowhere.

Rudradev wrote:
You start shouting about "JDAM is going to happen" and there will be no end of vested interests out to silence you. After it actually happens, those that are left will sing the Shiv-katha to their three eyed, limbless and leukemic offspring. Until then nothing.


Franly I think it is ridiculous , or "elitist" at the very least to say that we can talk about a jihadi Detonated Atomic Munition (JDAM) while we do not take every step possible to apprise and warn aam junta of this possibility.

What I find particularly worthy of strong condemnation in this attitude is the thought that "We must not tell the aam junta because they will argue in such a such a manner and will behave in this fashion"

To me it sounds like you do not yourself seriously believe that a JDAM can ever occur. If that is the case then I have nothing further to discuss.

If you do believe that it can happen - surely people ought to know. What conclusions they reach is a different matter. I may do my best to make them reach a particular conclusion and someone else may do his best towards some other conclusion. But not throwing the info open and broadcasting it to aam junta is either irresponsible - or an indicator that you are not taking it seriously.


Last edited by shiv on 28 May 2006 09:44, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: 28 May 2006 09:36 
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Folks, may I suggest that the conversation on this thread would be really helped along by reading the following article:

http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-381es.html

Forget the summary. Read the actual pdf file, it's only 25 pages and is here:
http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa381.pdf

It's old of course, from 2000. And well before 911. But it would be a mistake to let that mislead you. One of the most important things about 911 that gets missed out is what did *not* change in global geopolitical power discussions.

911 overlaid a template on the underlying shifts in the global order that tends to obscure them. It does not mean however, that these shifts do not exist. And the implications and policy responses to them are still extant.

Some things have of course changed. US policy responses to 911 have skewed not just the world view of these changes, but also the responses to them. But they do assert themselves in strange ways - Cheneys speech on Russia for example.

There are underlying issues in Indo-US relations that it would be foolish to ignore - because they're simply not going to go away by fiat or motherhood statements from both sides. The nuke agreement is one way of addressing some of them, but there's quite a bit of ways to go.

So read that pdf.


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PostPosted: 28 May 2006 09:55 
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Rudradev, while it is good to worry about the perceived/ real weaknesses , we ought to know and play our strengths also. If Islamist etc can play the game , so can Indians. We should not underestimate the spirit of sacrifice , going to any extreme to punish the enemy or extract the proper revenge. I will give the example of 47 Punjab and the extreme retaliation. Pukes know this and wont do it for the sake of what they hold dear: JDam in India will invite much worst reaction than anywhere in world, except the Old Europe.
Pukes has a choice , JDAM or Islam on earth.


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PostPosted: 28 May 2006 14:52 
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Kgoan, read it......... thanks a ton for that. Amazing article, never expected something so lucid from an American thinktank.

Well, some parts of it clearly seem to have been accepted by the Bush Administration, but some clearly have not- witness the attempts by the still flourishing Ayatollahs to creep in CRE in the J18 agreement.

Anyways, let me try to posit a clear question: if we accept (which is not what I think but seems to be the consensus here) that IROT's nukular bums are alive and kicking, then what explains:

1. India's lack of agfgression in building up Surya and similar variants
2. Similarly, Lizard's restraints

I find it difficult to believe that all of India, Lizard and Unkil are placing continued faith in the rational behaviour of IROT/ IT combine and not taking active steps to plan for a day when a JDAM goes off somewhere and sets off the Beg gaadi of nuclear anhilation.... so where am I going totally wrong?


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PostPosted: 28 May 2006 17:41 
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Prem wrote:
Pukes know this and wont do it for the sake of what they hold dear: JDam in India will invite much worst reaction than anywhere in world, except the Old Europe.
Pukes has a choice , JDAM or Islam on earth.


I agree with that Prem. Its too risky to assume Indian low key response for a JDAM. One freaked out politician can bring a domino effect and we may well give a very disproportionate response to Pakistan wiping them out of this planet.
However, There is only one solution to this conundrum in light of all these Beg's and Kissinger's. Destroy Pakistani Military Pre-emptively and save the world.


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PostPosted: 29 May 2006 01:12 
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> 2. To prevent India from nuking Pakistan, the US nukes India.

Replace that word Pakistan with China. US will not care if Pakistan gets nuked. Pakistan does not have the ability to strike the US in any way in a nuclear war.

All India needs is sufficient nukes to inflict a huge amount of damage on China in the event of a nuclear war with anyone. The desctruction would have to be of sufficient magnitude to spark an all out attack by that country on all its potential adversaries.

That's the best defence against US or whomever else launching a pre-emptive strike on India.

The current wheeling and dealing is meant to place limits on the size of India's nuclear arsenal to limit an n-war to being regional and not global.

However all the logical analysis will be for nothing because such events are so unpredicatble. My personal view is that terrorists detonating a nuke in India are most likely to initiate a global nuclear war. Whether pakistan denies a hand in it or not is immaterial.


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PostPosted: 29 May 2006 01:42 
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Something related:

Nawaz blames Musharraf for Kargil

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It was from an urgent call from his Indian counterpart Atal Bihari Vajpayee that he first learnt about the invasion of Kargil by Pakistani troops, the then Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif disclosed on Sunday, squarely blaming Gen Pervez Musharraf for the 'misadventure' for which he would like the military ruler to be tried.

"Mr Prime Minister, what is happening" in Kargil, an indignant Vajpayee asked him over telephone in May 1999, according to the 56-year-old Pakistani leader who said that he had got to know about the Kargil operation only then.

Almost all Pakistani Corps Commanders were also unaware of the "ill-conceived, ill-planned and ill-executed misadventure" of Musharraf and "just two or three of his cronies", Sharif, who is living abroad in exile for over six years, said in an interview here days after he and another former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto came together and pledged to topple Musharraf.

Through the Kargil operation Musharraf, the then Chief of the Army Staff, had "sabotaged" the understanding reached by him with Vajpayee at Lahore to resolve all Indo-Pak problems including Kashmir, Sharif said.

The Pakistani leader finds it ironic that India should be talking to Pakistan's military ruler. "You are talking to the same Musharraf (who did Kargil). I fail to understand", he said.

A 36-point Charter of Democracy signed on May 14 by Sharif and Bhutto for restoration of democracy in Pakistan includes a proposal to set up a Commission to fix responsibility for Kargil and identify causes that led to it.

Those involved would have to be brought to book, Sharif asserted, after saying that a high-level Commission, "something higher than a Judicial Commission" would be set up by a democratic government to go into the Kargil episode.

Does that mean that Musharraf could face trial? "It is very clear. The clause (in the Charter) says that the Commission will fix responsibility and then (those found guilty) would conceivably face trial", the former Pakistani Prime Minister said.

Sharif cannot forgive Musharraf for Kargil because that had brought India and Pakistan very close to a war. "The Indians could have done anything at that time because they were attacked without any rhyme or reason", he said.

Recalling his frantic July 4, 1999 meeting with President Bill Clinton in Washington, Sharif said he had sought the US leader's good offices to resolve the matter amicably. But he refused to say whether Musharraf had pleaded with him to rush to Washington as Indians were beating back the Pakistani intruders.

Sharif sees Musharraf as a "very impulsive man, erratic in his behaviour and not a very stable person".

"India should not be doing business with any usurper or a military dictator... India should condemn such (military) takeovers whether in Pakistan or elsewhere", he said.

By inviting Musharraf to the Agra Summit India had conferred legitimacy on the General. "To me it amounted to recognising a military dictator although his rule is still unconstitutional, unlawful and immoral. Why should you talk to a man like that", the Pakistani leader asked.

Nonetheless is he happy with the Indo-Pak peace process? "Well, the foundation of all these were laid when I was the Prime Minister. Mr Vajpayee was very kind to visit Pakistan and the foundation was laid then by us. Things started moving then. But, of course, the Kargil episode came in between", he replied.

A very good opportunity for resolving Indo-Pak issues was thus missed, rues Sharif, describing the Lahore Declaration signed by Vajpayee and him as a "tremendous opportunity" which was sabotaged by Musharraf's Kargil misadventure.

Asked if the General had done so because he did not support the Lahore Declaration, Sharif replied, "No. I think Musharraf and his cronies had some obsession about it (Kargil) for a long time".

Sharif dismisses as "wild ideas" Musharraf's solutions to the Kashmir issue such as demilitarization and joint control. "Solutions are not given in Television interviews. Musharraf does not know what diplomacy means", he said.

Such ideas, he emphasized, are first discussed at proper forums. "You do not give wild ideas in the Press and say that you have given solutions and the other side is not responding", he said, adding that Musharraf was "immature".

Sharif, who claims Kashmiri ancestry, said that while the Indo-Pak Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) were welcome, Kashmir also had to be resolved, to the satisfaction of India, Pakistan and the people of the State.

Benazir Bhutto, Chairperson of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and Sharif, leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (N), have both announced that they will go to Pakistan to participate in the next year's National Assembly elections to which Musharraf responded by declaring that they would be arrested and tried.

Dismissing these as "empty threats", Sharif said that they were not deterred or worried by what the General had stated. He described Musharraf as a "traitor" who had subverted the Constitution.

Asked about the reports that the General might get himself re-elected as the President by the current National Assembly, Sharif said that he was not eligible to contest because he was still wearing the Army uniform. If he made any such move it would be gross violation of the Constitution and political parties would launch "a very effective movement" against him.


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PostPosted: 29 May 2006 04:02 
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Quote:
The Pakistani leader finds it ironic that India should be talking to Pakistan's military ruler. "You are talking to the same Musharraf (who did Kargil). I fail to understand", he said.


Only because of the US and some dimwit think tanks, which he should be very much aware of. Some think tanks in specific have fallen for an old Mush thought of troops on which border - IF India is willing to reduce her troops, the logic goes, then Mush can send those Pakistani troops facing India, to the A'stan border. Ostensibly to help the US in A'stan. Thus the pressure on India.


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PostPosted: 29 May 2006 04:18 
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It's hard to believe that the Indian govt. was willing to abandon Siachen if TSP were to recognize actual ground positions, on good faith from the same general who was the mastermind of Kargil! :-?

I think we got lucky that TSP backed off from authentication of ground positions, otherwise Mushy would've bided his time, and then eventually moved into Siachen.


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PostPosted: 29 May 2006 04:24 
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shiv wrote:

What I find particularly worthy of strong condemnation in this attitude is the thought that "We must not tell the aam junta because they will argue in such a such a manner and will behave in this fashion"

To me it sounds like you do not yourself seriously believe that a JDAM can ever occur. If that is the case then I have nothing further to discuss.

If you do believe that it can happen - surely people ought to know. What conclusions they reach is a different matter. I may do my best to make them reach a particular conclusion and someone else may do his best towards some other conclusion. But not throwing the info open and broadcasting it to aam junta is either irresponsible - or an indicator that you are not taking it seriously.


That is hardly a warranted allegation. Not only do I take it seriously, I have actually made efforts to get the message to at least a part of "aam junta" in my own way. Remember the last scene of "Photochor" depicts a JDAM attack.

However, you cannot deny a very fundamental attitude among the Indian public and Indian administrations that is responsible for the way discussions of such things are handled (or rather, not handled)... even in the rarified echelons of government, let alone the public domain. Even Victor Gobarev, in the document linked by KGoan, can see this:

[quote]But it is the
United States, with its global reach and superior
power, that India wants to deter. New
Delhi is apprehensive about possible U.S.
plans to attack India. Primarily because of
that uneasiness India will not give up its
nuclear weapons program. [b]That decision is
an unspoken truth that Indian officials never
publicly acknowledge in their talks with
American officials for two reasons: first,
because of cultural habits Indians are not
accustomed to telling a foreigner something
that might be seen as an offense; and second,
Indians do not want a public statement
about a U.S. “threatâ€


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PostPosted: 29 May 2006 04:50 
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NRao wrote:
Quote:
The Pakistani leader finds it ironic that India should be talking to Pakistan's military ruler. "You are talking to the same Musharraf (who did Kargil). I fail to understand", he said.


Only because of the US and some dimwit think tanks, which he should be very much aware of.


No Mr Rao

Gunja Fails to Understand because Vajpayee did not call him like last time (to ask him about Kargil).
Imagine if Vajpayee did not call him, Gunja still would not have known that Kargil war ever took place. :shock:

That liar should change his name to Nawaz Badmaash. Wait Let ABV tell him on the phone to do so.

On the other hand pakis have alway been liars. gunja is proving his pakiness onlee.


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PostPosted: 29 May 2006 05:35 
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appuseth wrote:
It's hard to believe that the Indian govt. was willing to abandon Siachen if TSP were to recognize actual ground positions, on good faith from the same general who was the mastermind of Kargil! :-?
.


It is hard to believe EVEN AFTER THE Indian ARMY STATES so.

The pressure is there from the US. Plenty of people have appeared on US TVs to make two statements: 1. Mush is important (because of nukes falling into Jihadi hands) and 2. We (the US) need his help to help us (the US) on A'stan border


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PostPosted: 29 May 2006 06:54 
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Khalid Hasan the Famous "DT US Correspondent" failed to mention KEY DETAILS from his REVIEW of George Friedman's Bk -- " America's Secret War" ====> especially the Chapter ---> Tora Bora & Nuclear Nightmare

He practically CONFIRMS --- N^3 -- Nook Nude Theory !!


He states/speculates:

a.

Operation Parakram was a joint US & India operation to Squeeze the
Pakistanis NUTS --- India was supposed to have issued open ended
NUKE THREAT to GOLA --- US also used the Opportunity to issue a
threat to PRE-EMPTIVELY nook bomb suspected AL Keeda Sites

Revision to US Nuke Doctrine was Primarily to Convey Message to
Paki-Satan !

b. Gola feeling the HEAT -- Capitulated and allowed US NEST teams and
Delta Force Team's to Take Complete Inventory of PAKI NOOK's and
CHINESE BUMs and do more !!

c. US NEST teams were shocked to see "rudimentary state" of Paki
NOOKEs !!!
What really got their GOAT and their ATTENTIOn was LIZARD
PROLIFERATION of new & ADVANCED Design's -- They
had total visibility of what the CHICOMs were up to ---
( We need to FIRE up a AGNI 3 with a profile that traverses the
CHINESE Landmass !! )
LAND-MASS ---!!

d. Big Mouth Gul, and and tons of Paki Nook scientists used JINN
techniques to collaborate with AL KEEDA -- They found ton's of
paper trails up in Kandahar and other spots !!!

Other Give-aways:

Moderate Taliban -- nobody in the DOD was buying this lollipop !

ISI -- Purge forced by Uncle Sam !!

ISI=ISLAMISTs=AL KEEDA !!


:twisted: :twisted: :twisted:


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PostPosted: 29 May 2006 06:56 
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Rudradev wrote:

That is hardly a warranted allegation. Not only do I take it seriously, I have actually made efforts to get the message to at least a part of "aam junta" in my own way. Remember the last scene of "Photochor" depicts a JDAM attack.

However, you cannot deny a very fundamental attitude among the Indian public and Indian administrations that is responsible for the way discussions of such things are handled (or rather, not handled)... even in the rarified echelons of government, let alone the public domain. Even Victor Gobarev, in the document linked by KGoan, can see this:
..
There is nothing either elitist, or irresponsible, in my pointing that out.

I apologise for the harsh words.

I agree (to an extent) that the Indian psyche has evolved itself to behave in this manner. There is a medical analogy - I will mention that before I go any further. The standard response among most patients' relatives when they hear that a near and dear one has advanced cancer is "Don't tell him". There in an assumption that a person who has a disease that may cause him suffering and may kill him soon, does not want to know what is wrong and does not need to be told exactly why he is going to be put through expensive and sometimes stressful treatment for his disease. Everyone in the family and indeed everyone else in a ward know the diagnosis - but the patient is not told and is expected to be able to reach his own conclusions and rationalization. This is hardly science - and is not the way to handle a deadly disease - and the attitude sounds like kgoan's hilarious Pakigenization disease in the other thread.

But there is an "extension" of this psyche that is relevant - that is the "top-down" governance attitude of government in India, where the government sees itself as responsible for the people and the (relative oligarchy of) government reaches conclusions about what is good for the people without actually polling or pinging people for responses or involving them in decision making that involved their own lives. Just like the cancer patient and his relatives.

I realise that you are personally taking the JDAM seriosuly - but does the Government of India do that?

No it does not. Bharat-Rakshak does, but the government of India either:

1) Does not take a JDAM or nuclear bomb threat seriously
OR
2) Feels that the people of India are too stupid and immature to know, think about and help in dealing with the idea of a nuclear bomb going off in India.

We are all products of this psyche and while we cosily make decisons about what can be done ourselves on this board we do not see the obvious. We do not see that if the threat is serious - the Government of India is not doing what is necessary - i.e. sharing information with the public - at least for debate in what is alleged to be the "biggest" democracy.

At grass roots level our response to a JDAM is absolute bullshit.


Last edited by shiv on 29 May 2006 08:45, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: 29 May 2006 07:08 
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Leonard wrote:
He practically CONFIRMS --- N^3 -- Nook Nude Theory !!


For several reasons I would not take this seriously.

Even if "Pakistan" as in the "Islamic Republic of Pakistan" is nook nude - there is no guarantee that the jihadis whom Pakistanis generals and establishment assiduously trained and nurtured are also nook nood.

How does the Pakistani establishment escape blame from a JDAM?

Easy. Start saying that thay have no nukes and blame a JDAM on "someone else"


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PostPosted: 29 May 2006 11:15 
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shiv wrote:
Leonard wrote:
He practically CONFIRMS --- N^3 -- Nook Nude Theory !!


For several reasons I would not take this seriously.

Even if "Pakistan" as in the "Islamic Republic of Pakistan" is nook nude - there is no guarantee that the jihadis whom Pakistanis generals and establishment assiduously trained and nurtured are also nook nood.

How does the Pakistani establishment escape blame from a JDAM?

Easy. Start saying that thay have no nukes and blame a JDAM on "someone else"


If the pakis have nukes and rattle them in front of us, we will say they are threatening us. If they keep quiet and their nukes buried underground, we will say they are scheming against us. If they say they are nuke-nude, we will scream they are angling for plausible deniability to nuke us through the JDAM mode.

Whatever they do (or dont do), we dont trust them. :lol:


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PostPosted: 29 May 2006 12:21 
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I'm raising a red flag.The latest reports from Iran that their govt. wants to have "close" relations wiht Pak should erve as a warning bell for Indai.After genuflecting to Uncle sam over Iran's nuke ambitions,the Iranians have dumped us and our grand strategy of encircling Pak and a new route to the Central Asian region through Iran.It is a massive setback thanks to the wyopic MEA mandarins and the regime of Subedar Singh.Thanks to his policies,we now will have the iarnians and the Pakis cosying up in an alliance that has global implicatiosn for nuclear proliferation and terrorism.

Pak was earlier found to have given the Iranians nuke secrets,material and technology.Iran is accused by the west of being behind some of the worst terrorist attacks committed against them.We know of pak being the HQ of international so-called fundamentalist "Islamic" terrorism.With the extremists in both countries joining hands,as Iran is pushed into a corner more and more by the west,the future horrifying scenario can be imagined! For India even more probelms, as we can see how embolden the ISI and the pakis have become with the impotence of the current regime exposed fully.With Iranian support behind them,the situ will develop even more dangerously as the loonies of the "Islamic" world combine their forces.Pres.Ahmed-in-a-jam and Gen.Bandicoot are ideal bedfellows.Just watch this space.


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PostPosted: 29 May 2006 13:45 
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Philip,

That is all true.

But WHAT IF India and her dreaded partners act this time? (I get the Baig/Beg theory will be practiced.)

The fact that Iran has gone this far is proof enough of collusion between the two (to me at least). As much as the MEA under performs at times, they may have struck the right tone in this one. By placing a better regime in Tehran, India may still get her route to the CA back.

Note:
1) This situation make very strange bed fellows. KSA is not too fond of a nuclear Iran. What they can and cannot needs to be seen.
2) Any collusion from Pakistan has to have the blessings of China - specially WRT Iran


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PostPosted: 11 Jun 2006 12:10 
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OK, this might be the umpteenth attempt to scare the US of Paki nukes. But being a Paki myself, its hard for me to believe that Pakis are a race of evil geniuses, who have been able to blackmail the only super-power remaining in the galaxy.

Is it possible that, like most desis who end up with a bad reputation (Phooln devi, Namu waseer) pakis are just victims of circumstances??

here are the circumstanes:

1- You guys had to have the bomb. Something to do with being up to par with China. But ever since you guys refused to hand over the Paki share of the revenues, transporatation assets and rolling stock, right after partition, Pakis are convinced that you guys are out to get them. So they had to have the bomb too. (BTW, This is the money that Mulayam Singh thinks, India should hand over to pakistan, with interest, as part of the CBMs)

2- Again to find some strategic depth against you guys, Pakis bet the house on a one-eyed ornery fella named Mullah Omar (can you dream of a more medieval sounding name than that ??) And the rest as they say in Deccan is history..

Which brings me to the story of Namu Waseer. He was a famous bandit from my neck of the woods. At a time when most bad guys brandished swords or at best double-barrels, Waseer gang was equipped with sten-guns and 7 mm rifles. Namu had a vendetta against a big zamindar in the area and his cohorts. So he robbed them, carried away their women, killed their men. Cops always knew, in which bend of the Ravi, Waseer gang was hiding. But after a few skirmishes, they decided that it was in their own best interest not to pursue him. They extorted money from the Zamindar many times but never did anyting about Namu. And in the end , story goes that Namu died of old age, riding his horse, his trusty sten, by his side...

Please draw your own conclusions.


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PostPosted: 11 Jun 2006 12:20 
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PIyengar wrote:
But ever since you guys refused to hand over the Paki share of the revenues, transporatation assets and rolling stock, right after partition, Pakis are convinced that you guys are out to get them. So they had to have the bomb too. (BTW, This is the money that Mulayam Singh thinks, India should hand over to pakistan, with interest, as part of the CBMs)

Mulla Singh is a traitor. He will sell his own mother for votes to get the power. His opinion is inconsequential,just as yours and mine.
And about the money you are talking about, I think you should consider yourself lucky that India did not ask for War Reparations from you guys for the wars. If India were to ask for War reparations you would not be eating grass,you would have sold the grass too!!

If I had a say, I would have bankrupted your country by asking for war reparations. Bangladesh is really stupid not to ask for it. Your country would have never recovered from the economic hardship. So stop stroking.


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