Pulwama Attack

[khan]

It has been a few years gentle Rakshaks, I wish it had been under better circumstances.

I am not sure if people have seen "The Fog of War - Eleven lessons from the life of Robert S McNamara", it is available on YouTube, I highly recommend every strategically minded Rakshak watch it.

One of the lessons is

Lesson #5: Proportionality should be a guideline in war

Firstly, make no mistake, there is a war going on and there has been one going on for 70 years.

Coming back to proportionality, if the acceptable proportion in 10 to 1, we are looking at something like 500 Pakistani casualties. This is bigger than airstrikes and covert action. My guess would be we are looking at ground intrusions (possibly with air support) to "sanitize" some Pakistanis.

[Austin]

I am not saying start a war exactly but we need to set price which pak is not willing to pay. That is the key. It can be a tactical response like sinking couple of ships taking sailors with them, or strategic like capture haji pir. Whatever we decide it has to be something that pak is not ready to part away.

These response will be act of war , Like Sinking couple of Military Ships

All depends on how Pakis respond , it is not a question of what we can or must do but on how the other guy treats it and responds .......What if they also sink couple of ships in responds to our sinking .....will we stop it there ?

[Karthik S]

Point is .. If India does escalate via say a missile strike. Does it automatically mean it will be an all out war?

Missile Strike where inside Pakistan ? Will missile strike be an act of charity for Pakis to think its not an act of war ?

But will pakis retaliate by turning it into full scale war?

[Austin]

Missile Strike where inside Pakistan ? Will missile strike be an act of charity for Pakis to think its not an act of war ?

But will pakis retaliate by turning it into full scale war?

Do we control how Pakis react to what we do if its major and overt ?

Will any Paki government or Army survive if they dont react to a major offensive across LOC by India ?

[rohan1424]

What is Pakistan's game plan here ? We have seen two brutal attacks on Indian and Iranian Paramilitary forces .

With its economy in shambles what are they gaining by escalating the situation and forcing India to react ? Is there a China angle ?

[arshyam]

Step-3 - Purge all anti-indian sentiments of Kashmir valley.

How exactly do we do this?

[abhijitm]

I am not saying start a war exactly but we need to set price which pak is not willing to pay. That is the key. It can be a tactical response like sinking couple of ships taking sailors with them, or strategic like capture haji pir. Whatever we decide it has to be something that pak is not ready to part away.

These response will be act of war , Like Sinking couple of Military Ships

All depends on how Pakis respond , it is not a question of what we can or must do but on how the other guy treats it and responds .......What if they also sink couple of ships in responds to our sinking .....will we stop it there ?

Once we achieve our tactical goal we can then take defensive position and calibrate our response based on pak retaliation. They don't have huge resources to sustain prolonged aggression, but we can sustain defensive war posture. We take our piece and then let pak decide how it plays out. If they want full fledged war then be it, do you think they will bite that bullet? why we should blink first by declaring war is not an option? everything should be on the table.

[habal]

pakistan doesn't have any money to repay it's debts so any war scenario can help pakistan by suspending it's debt repayment obligations with excuse of war.

[Karthik S]

But will pakis retaliate by turning it into full scale war?

Do we control how Pakis react to what we do if its major and overt ?

Will any Paki government or Army survive if they dont react to a major offensive across LOC by India ?

Major offensive indeed no, but missile strikes, yes.

[khan]

Does anyone remember around 10 years ago there was talk of “salami slicing”, essentially gradually escalate to where you want to go.

So, I would expect the forces to climb some escalation ladder. Shelling, MBRL’s, missiles, Raids and airstikes until they are satisfied.

So, they will gradually turn up the heat and essentially dare the Pakistanis to respond, at the current threshold of violence (which is hard to do when they are the weaker party) or escalate (which is even harder to do when they are the weaker party).

So, I think the answer is all the above - but in a graduated fashion.

[Austin]

What is Pakistan's game plan here ? We have seen two brutal attacks on Indian and Iranian Paramilitary forces ?

Long unrestrained habit of Indian security forces and public , the Pakis are in a mindset that India cant do any thing because we have Nuclear Bum ....Insha Allah

[rohan1424]

Do we control how Pakis react to what we do if its major and overt ?

Will any Paki government or Army survive if they dont react to a major offensive across LOC by India ?

Major offensive indeed no, but missile strikes, yes.

The best option for India now

1. Withdraw from IWT.
2. End all diplomatic relations with Pak.
3. Give all MNCs operating in both countries , option to chose only one country.
4. Major attack on CPEC with heavy casualties by our proxies so that it sends message to both .
5. Military Retaliation - Not now , but in future when the guard is down.

[arshyam]

For those talking about war, put yourself in the hot seat and consider how you will frame your orders to the military leadership. And try answering the following:

1. What are the objectives of a war?
2. Are those objectives achievable with our current capabilities?
3. Can it be done in a manner where we can control the fallout?
4. Is the country generally aligned with achieving those objectives?

Without clear answers to the above, no politician will go to war, and such talk here is at best a distraction.

Let's continue focusing on ways to hit the bakis in all ways possible short of war.

[chandrasekaran]

No, retaliation must be now. No better message other than send, we can hit them whenever we want - whatever maybe their state of alertness.
Good to see clear statements from both Pappu and MMS that they stand with the security forces and the govt for the next couple of days.
Political decks are clear for a massive retaliation. Now its upto GoI to decide and act.

[Pratyush]

Post Uri India will demand action and what form it takes is no longer in the hands of the government.

I am confident that we are going to have a reaction to this attack. What form it takes is a different issue.

[hemant_sai]

Partial good news that MFN status is removed for Pakistan. I agree with @rohan1424 that all diplomatic relations with Pak should end. Regarding retaliation, I am not in favor of war but yes we need to increase frequency of surgical strikes, 01 strike in 05 years is of no use and we all can see that.
We should be doing at least 01 every year. But besides this we all forget major issue and that is article 370. My request to all parties (no need of kashmiri parties like NC, PDP etc), please come together on this issue and unanimously abolish 370. This will start real remedy, else things will go on for eternity.

[chandrasekaran]

For those talking about war, put yourself in the hot seat and consider how you will frame your orders to the military leadership. And try answering the following:

1. What are the objectives of a war?
We don't have to claim it as "War". We can say taking down "terrorist infrastructure across the border". Let the enemy treat it in the way they see it as fit.

2. Are those objectives achievable with our current capabilities?
Even today I believe we can achieve total air superiority

3. Can it be done in a manner where we can control the fallout?
Fallouts, they need to worry as well.

4. Is the country generally aligned with achieving those objectives?
There need not be any other objective other than taking atleast 100+ Paki's out.
Its quite clear to everyone here that Paki's count on the "fear of escalation" to factor in.
Lets call this bluff once and for all.

Even if we don't do zilch, the terrorist attacks are anyways going to continue.

Without clear answers to the above, no politician will go to war, and such talk here is at best a distraction.

Let's continue focusing on ways to hit the bakis in all ways possible short of war.

[syam]

How exactly do we do this?

When we go through first two steps, the pro paki elements in Valley will come out in open to stand with their ummah in moral support. That's my assumption. If we arrange bomb blasts in Pak, Pakis will definitely escalate this war through their Kashmir terror modules. Pakis may target other places in our country. But Kashmir is simply easy for them to inflict damage on us. All these factors can help us purge the place.

[Kakarat]

First to protect our soldiers from attacks we must shift from the present non armored platforms to Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected platforms

From this


To this

Madindra


Ashok Leyland


Russian Typhoon APC


Golan Wheeled Armored Vehicle

Or even have our auto industry to design and develop IED Ambush Protected buses

[Arima]

Now some media is reporting it was 100 kg explosives. if so then how and who gave this number of 350 kgs? is it some fake news propaganda?? this is not acceptable and such reporting should be curtailed.

[Kakarat]

War - No
Retaliation - Yes
They will be waiting for a Uri like strike so this time airstrikes on 10-15 targets simultaneously
Covert operations to takeout high value targets on both sides of the border

[Vikas]

Sometimes it feels like Pakis actually want a war and India is avoiding the trap.

Indian leadership is not going to declare war on Bakistan overtly. No, Not in near future, not with current resources and state of defense.
Be it any party in the power at center. War will not solve any of the Baki problem that we are facing.
So we declare war and capture few 100 sq KM of Baki territory permanently or maybe kill few 100 of Bakis.
Will that be answer to all our problems. Wars can't be started just by saying, 'Lets see what happens'.
Lot of posters here assume that raising the pain for Bakis will force them to shed their perpetual state of war against India. I don't think that would happen. Bakis anyways are squeezed in all directions and don't care much otherwise it would not have been a world factory of terrorism.

Unlike ABV who without planning rushed forces to border and then withdrew them without achieving any of the strategic goals or avenging attack on Parliament, NM is a better player than that and IA has also learnt its lessons.

GoI will retaliate but not in next one week or even one month. The response will come but at a time of our choosing.

Bottom line - No war is going to knock on door steps anytime soon.

[pralay]

The best option for India now
1. Withdraw from IWT.
2. End all diplomatic relations with Pak.
3. Give all MNCs operating in both countries , option to chose only one country.
4. Major attack on CPEC with heavy casualties by our proxies so that it sends message to the both .
5. Military Retaliation - Not now , but in future when the guard is down.

option 1 is best to start with and gain with.

[darshhan]

Point is .. If India does escalate via say a missile strike. Does it automatically mean it will be an all out war?

All the better. The sooner we are done with pakistan, the better it would be for all of us. The world can thank us later.

[chandrasekaran]

I am hoping that India starts its massive disproportionate retaliation just after they move all the bodies of the Martyrs out of that place. The retaliation must happen before the bodies are cremated.

[Sid]

^^Why our troops must travel in these bubbles on our own land? We are not in Iraq, or Syria. We should not be living this way.

This time let’s track who did it, and neutralize them very specially, and publicize it. Show how rule of law works.

Plus seal complete border, and kick out all porkies from our side. Just turnoff this liberal drama and do what we mean.

[hnair]

MRAPs are very expensive and cannot be used like a state transport bus service daily, which meant the pakis have made it that much more costly for India. Plus the VBIEDs can be upscaled easily after spending so much on 1000s of MRAPs, so a huger VBIED blast can be made that can rip apart an MBT

Shorn of all rhetoric, current India govt is being forced to do something, due to its recent past positions and impact of this attack on upcoming elections. The General elections seem to be the primary target of this blast. Once again, a carbomb is a huge escalation. The chinese and pakis should be aware of that.

That "informal" summit soon after Doklam at Wuhan was a terrible idea. Maybe some other engagement should have been tried out

[Pratyush]

I always fail to understand that post such attacks we always swing to war option.

Their is space between war and retaliation. Exploit that.

[darshhan]

First to protect our soldiers from attacks we must shift from the present non armored platforms to Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected platforms


Or even have our auto industry to design and develop IED Ambush Protected buses

I agree with your post that MRAPs are a must these days in a COIN scenarion. However there are two points that I want to clarify. Once we invest in MRAPs and we already have invested a lot till now, Pakistan is actually achieving its objective by raising your costs. So eventually you will have to take care of Pakistan. Secondly no MRAP can take a hit from 300 kg explosives and survive. Even a Tank will be shredded against such a massive explosives package.

So we have to take this inside Pakistan for sure. And the best part of killing Pakis is that you wouldn't feel bad at all.

[darshhan]

I always fail to understand that post such attacks we always swing to war option.

Their is space between war and retaliation. Exploit that.

Pratyush ji, Why not ? War tests and even develops human spirit and character like nothing else. What else are adult males supposed to do in this country. Sit in a soul sucking 3ft by 3ft cubicle. Play candy crush. Post FB updates and check how many likes you got. Watch reality TV.

Tell me one reason why war is bad?

Having said that I trust our Pradhan Mantri's decision to retaliate. I know better than to second guessing him continuously.

[Singha]

1. Withdraw from IWT.
2. End all diplomatic relations with Pak.
3. Give all MNCs operating in both countries , option to chose only one country.

^^^ from post above. these should be done asap. even if we do not set about barraging the 3 western rivers we conceded in IWT immediately, some visits by HM and PM to kickstart planning meetings and site surveys of the same by army corps of engineers will be like a explosion under core kamandu chairs. they have no way to control population if water is reduced. this is our trump card and we must use it.

they will wait and run to 4 fathers for help, but refuse to engage on this matter post withdrawal with any of 4 fathers and with that "hague" thing. ask them to STFU and investigate dutch colonial war crimes in indonesia first if they have time.

[Shivaji]

Attack on IRG few days back and yesterday attack at Pulwama.

MBS visiting Pakis and Chinkis yet to condemn Pulwama attack (not that it matters).

I think attack on IRG was to show Saudis and may be with their support. Pulwama attack seems to have approval from Hans.

Last time when Amritsar saw a terror attack by two Khalistanis, there was an attack at Han counsulate in Karachi. Karachi attack was intriguing in that attackers were not serious in barging in embassy. Probably someone just wanted to send a message.

Hans and Pakis see this an opportunity to show Modi ji his place just before election, timing suits them with emergency drama going on is US.

If we have to retaliate that shall be with a firm conviction and shall be ready for counter attacks. Half-hearted attempts may not deter Pakis and they are ready for it.

This unfortunate incident can help us send a message that we do not give two hoots about protocols like Indians will not dare to attack when Saudi prince is on a visit to Shitistan or we will not attack overtly due to nuclear dimension.

[chetak]

war is serious business.

the damage is wide spread, uncontrollable and it affects different layers of society, different aspects of the economy and seriously impacting international relations and inward bound investments.

It is you who are acting cool and trying to sound hip about a topic of which you know nothing.

Just take another look at the question and reflect.

" Just out of curiosity, why you are so afraid of a full fledged war? "

It is not a question that any sane person would ask.

OK so focus shifted from someone else is fighting to economy?

Go through below loop:

Terrorist strike happens ... Loss of Indian lives (civilian & military)... people demand retribution ... voices of ganga jamuna tehseeb, all knowing economic kunals follow: oh what if it escalates, what about full scale wars, someone else will be fighting, loss of economy, war is serious business... then we do nothing... Terrorist strike happens... Loss of Indian lives....

If this loop has to stop, which I assume you want it to, at which step do you think will make that happen?


Get the point?

looks like we didn't get each other's point.

let sleeping dogs lie.

EOD

[pankajs]

Saudi prince arrives in Bakistan on 16th Afternoon so perhaps the best time to deliver a message is on 15th Night / 16th Morning in the city of arrival with a "spectacular" welcome.

Equalization of number can follow at its own pace later.

[pankajs]

My thinking is that the bakis are trying to build a wall for themselves from a *major* retaliation by getting the Chinese and the Saudi's to invest with the belief that India would not dare target their investments/plants.

This instance provides us with an opportunity to disprove that notion. Since the action was in J&K it might be worthwhile to knock out a few bridge on the CPEC route especially around Attabad Lake that took upwards of 3 years. Destroying one such bridge + jannat for 40 suited and booted kammandus might be sufficient payback.

[Kakarat]

A bus like the one used now can carry up to 50 passengers and you dont need a 300kg ied to shred it into pieces a simple Ak-47 fired from the sides can cause a huge no of causality. News is that the convoy had 70 vehicles and think what would have happened if the IED was between two buses

It is time we start to innovate and use our auto industry to develop something that can protect our soldiers in these conditions, the use of mine protection is less in these conditions as the convoy was on a highway. My point is instead of using simple buses we need to use Armored Ambush Protected platforms for troop movements. Even in earlier incidents army convoys have been targeted with gunfire & grenades causing causality due to soft skinned vehicles

[kancha]

Shared some of my own thoughts in a blog and on Twitter this morning

Blog Link
Twitter Link 1
Twitter Link 2

Firstly, and strictly a personal opinion, this is partly a manifestation of the planned US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Logistics & efforts from that end can now safely and easily be diverted to the 1000 year war that Bhutto promised before he was hanged.

Coming to timing, it couldn’t have been better, or worse, for that matter, depending on the glasses you wear while observing it – General elections on the horizon, Governor’s rule in Kashmir .. and more importantly, the Saudi Crown Prince about to land up in the sub continent. What sort of messaging might be going on, I’ll leave it for you to decipher.

With the surgical strikes, including the recent bollywood movie, behind them, there seems to be absolutely no way that this govt won’t react. And given the magnitude of the attack, a similar surgical strike which the Pakis can easily deny, won’t cut it. In any case, this is something they must already be guarding against. Hence, I would personally rule out another surgical strike in which own soldiers will go across this time.

Just as the attack, the response too needs to be ‘spectacular’, and one that is equally visible to the whole world. Herein lies the difference between the #PulwamaAttack and the Uri Attack – visuals of the attack itself.

Like I said earlier, this time a Surgical Strike won’t cut it. The response simply HAS to be big, and more importantly, visible to all. In fact a highly visible response needn’t be that big since a very visible slap on the face of the Paki Fauj too will suffice.

That bombast is what has worked so far, but ONLY because no one has called them out on that.

I am not saying this will precipitate another war. Far from it. All I am saying is that the sheer audacity and timing of it all means that there will be something coming their way soon enough.

Oh, btw, forget about the Kartarpur Corridor It will remain yet another election issue against the govt, just as I mentioned some months ago in THIS blog post.

[nam]

I find it interesting that there is more consensus that Pak will make it a full fledge war, than over if we will ever retaliating.

A nation whose PM went to UAE begging for free oil will have go for full fledged war..

[nam]

But having a VBIED in the convoy area indicates a gap in SOPs.

Apparently the highway was open to regular traffic. Given the amount of forces moving in and out of J&K, it not possible to barricade highways.I am willing to bet, they would tried multiple times earlier, but worked this time.

However people in twitter passing gyan to professionals, who can pin point the exact house where terrorist are hiding in hundreds of encounters about "doing their job", takes my goat.

The narrative is to get finger pointing towards us, rather than to he real source. Pak.

[Pratyush]

Darshan ji,

Am not saying war is bad. If it takes a war so be it. All I am saying is that instead of jumping on the war bandwagon use lo threshold but punishing options against the TSPA.

If such options don't show results, then war is always an option.

I guess I want all options of short of war to be exhausted before we go charging in to Islamabad on the road to Kabul.

If you get my drift.