The next war in the Persian Gulf

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 21 Jun 2019 11:23

How high did the global hawk fly and what could the Iranians have used to down it? Is it a stealthy design?

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 21 Jun 2019 11:33

From TIme it flies at 60000 Ft, so most probably shot down by S-300 missile system

https://time.com/5611222/rq-4-global-ha ... shot-down/

Unlike the missile-launching MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper drones that are used to conduct airstrikes, Global Hawk drones are unarmed are used only to collect information.

To do this, they fly at altitudes of up to 60,000 feet–– almost twice as high as a commercial airliner. At that height, the drone can see beyond the curvature of the Earth.

It seems Iran is signalling it has the S-300 system. But I think the US wanted them to use it to find where they are deployed.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Jun 2019 13:13

the triton drone was probably at lower height and trying to sniff out iranian movements. the high alt mission is for SAR radar and optical imagery I think.

the BUK type missiles can also go to 80,000 feet and quite easy intercept vs a slow non manouvering drone.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 21 Jun 2019 13:19

I Doubt Buk will have the range though with the Height. This looks more like a S-300 kill. Thats why the Pentagon is holding back, although Trump is being given credit. I think they are waiting for the Iranians to provoke who seem to be falling into the trap. Knowing their behavior they could very well do something to give the USA a very legitimate reason to attack.

Till the repeated tanker attacks and drone shootdown, they had world opinion on thier side, now its turning. But the IRG is boosting its morale. I feel they are going up a cliff.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Jun 2019 13:19

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Jun 2019 13:24

iran khordad3(raad) SAM that matches the video I posted

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raad_(air_defense_system)

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Jun 2019 13:31

map released by iranian FM javad zarif ... his claim is the drone stayed outside of iranian airspace on its way to chahbahar but violated on the return leg. the drone may have a bait on a suicide mission.

question is did trump find out the pentagon was playing this baiting game and put a stop the counterattack? the euros who have assets in the region or another faction in the pentagon or SD may have shown him the game being played.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Jun 2019 13:41

comment in NYT

Aubrey
AlabamaJune 21
Times Pick

Lets see, we invaded Iraq in 2003 and spent 2 to 3 trillion dollars and thousands of our soldiers dead and wounded because our government said that Saddam had WMDs. Turns our that no WMDs were found but we did make a shambles out of the country of Iraq. The confusion in Iraq helped spawn ISIS which we have paid soldiers to fight.

We went into Afghanistan which was a good idea because we could get the people who sponsored the 9/11 attack. But we are still there after 17 or 18 years and victory is no where in sight. They say it is not safe for an American general to drive from downtown Kabul to the airport. They always go by helicopter. What does that tell you?

Libya is in chaos; Syria is in chaos; Egypt is a dictatorship; Saudi Arabia is an monarchy/dictatorship with a crazed butcher as its ruler.

Next on the list is Iran. Iran is one of the few stable countries in the Middle East with a somewhat democratic government. I take it that our policy is to make the Middle East completely dysfunctional and ungovernable.

53 Replies1474 Recommend

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 21 Jun 2019 13:47

News flash.
Media reports that Trump ordered US air strukes against Iranian air defence and missile batteries but ordered the planes to turn back when in the air!
Us airline operators warned not to operate in the Gulf and Gulf of Oman airspace.

If the faeces hits the fan, this is going to play havoc with the aviation industry that uses Dubai and Gulf airports as a crucial hub for international flights to Europe and beyond.Iranian airspace is also crucial for flights to Europe from Asia.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 21 Jun 2019 14:02

United cancelled is Newark to Mumbai flight...

rgosain · Post by **rgosain** » 21 Jun 2019 15:02

There are parallels between this shootdown of a drone, and the Airbus with 290 passengers back in July 1988, within the same area. Seems as if the Iranians are using the same script from the Reagan admin.
It does seem that the us forces made a big scene about the upcoming retaliation strike that was subsequently aborted, as a way of gaining additional intel on Iranian assets, c3, cyber-sec, air-defence, and naval deployment in the straits. Telegraphing an intent allowed the US to observe which iraninan units were active, came online and the key communication nodes - very clever.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 21 Jun 2019 15:24

Looking at reports of US cordinates of the drone being 21 Miles and 60K feet, I doubt this was a Buk, more likely a S 300 family missile.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Jun 2019 15:38

how does the US plan to 'contain' iran from the shia crescent when the entire iraq-iran land border is there and shia militias rule the roost in iraq?

i mean when you go to war, some kind of endgame or 'plan' is needed beyond the usual murican script of pounding the IADS and economical nodes with missiles to 'punish the regime' and 'rouse the long suffering people to revolt'

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Jun 2019 15:45

this poor quality video has been released by gotus as the drone after it was hit and falling.

https://twitter.com/rabrowne75/status/1 ... 9710404610

so another drone or manned a.c was lurking in the area at lower elevation. some say it was a P8 or P3 using its FLIR recorder.

syam · Post by **syam** » 21 Jun 2019 15:55

I think this drone shot down is not part of trump's plan.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Jun 2019 15:56

plan and trump are like oil and water.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Jun 2019 16:00

R. Bell
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@RobtBell
11h11 hours ago
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Replying to @ArmsControlWonk @lrozen @JZarif
Look at the altitude figure on the DOD release. 22209 feet. The RQ-4A drone is designed for wide-area surveillance at alts of 50000-65000 feet. Why was this large aircraft approaching (if not entering) Iran airspace at relatively low altitude?

4 replies 2 retweets 13 likes
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The Jake
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@JtoAtoKtoE
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They have strengthened wings so they can rapidly descend to ID vessels, so its within the Navy profile for Maritime Recon (At leas the Tritons). Not sure about this early model Global Hawk.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Jun 2019 16:04

houthis are firing missiles at abha airport in saudi daily and scoring hits.
cctv footage of one - i believe it wounded some 26 people
they have obtained cruise missiles from persian fathers, which are themselves ripoffs from kh55s that ukraine shipped out to cheen and iran as the ussr was collapsing. it has a simple turbojet and less fuel, vs the kh55 which had CFTs for extra fuel and turbofan engine.

https://twitter.com/MbKS15/status/1139218150577397760

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 21 Jun 2019 16:44

Is this is the first time someone has scored a kill against American Air asset in recent times ?

Once Unkill decides to hit Iran, It can't be business as usual. Iran will not roll over and play dead. The whole 'Hit and Scoot' against Persians may escalate quickly with repercussions across the Middle East.
It is given that eventually Allied power will rule over the skies of Iran and there maybe small uprisings across Iran but end game doesn't look in sight unless Deep state has plans which we aren't aware of.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Jun 2019 17:30

Cain Marko wrote:United cancelled is Newark to Mumbai flight...

UA 48 and 49, EWR-BOM and BOM-EWR have been cancelled. It appears next flight is on Sunday. Let's see if that stands. Interestingly enough UA chose to limit or avoid Pak airspace and flew over Iran into Russia and then over Europe. My family is in BOM and will fly to EWR on Sunday 6/30. This whole mess has me worrying. The common person in India doesn't think about war in the terms of westerners as it is abhorrent to them.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Jun 2019 19:02

they need someone willing to deploy boots on the ground in Iran to effect any form of regime change.

so who is up for that challenge ? TSP , iraq, afghanistan, saudi , UK ?

the marines could do it after violent battles along the coast, but then russian intervention in the northern half across the caspian sea is almost sure.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Jun 2019 19:24

ELINT News
‏@ELINTNews
3m3 minutes ago
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#BREAKING: Two US officials and one person familiar with deliberations tell @AlexWardVox that there are still plans for striking Iran on Friday night, but it’s possible that plan won’t be put into action

Steven nabil
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Verified account

@thestevennabil
8h8 hours ago
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Breaking: #Iraqi Army commander orders Iraqi forces in Taji camp(Joint Iraq and Coalition forces camp) to reinforce the security of the camp and post large numbers of soldiers around the camp to protect the parameters of the camp. I was viewed the internal military memo.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Jun 2019 19:27

the big guy speaks. read in reverse order

Donald J. Trump
‏
Verified account

@realDonaldTrump
38m38 minutes ago
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....proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone. I am in no hurry, our Military is rebuilt, new, and ready to go, by far the best in the world. Sanctions are biting & more added last night. Iran can NEVER have Nuclear Weapons, not against the USA, and not against the WORLD!

@realDonaldTrump
38m38 minutes ago
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....On Monday they shot down an unmanned drone flying in International Waters. We were cocked & loaded to retaliate last night on 3 different sights when I asked, how many will die. 150 people, sir, was the answer from a General. 10 minutes before the strike I stopped it, not....

@realDonaldTrump
38m38 minutes ago
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....Death to America. I terminated deal, which was not even ratified by Congress, and imposed strong sanctions. They are a much weakened nation today than at the beginning of my Presidency, when they were causing major problems throughout the Middle East. Now they are Bust!....

@realDonaldTrump
38m38 minutes ago
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President Obama made a desperate and terrible deal with Iran - Gave them 150 Billion Dollars plus I.8 Billion Dollars in CASH! Iran was in big trouble and he bailed them out. Gave them a free path to Nuclear Weapons, and SOON. Instead of saying thank you, Iran yelled.....

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Jun 2019 19:29

ANADOLU AGENCY (ENG)
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#Breaking | Suicide attack on Shia mosque in Baghdad kills 10, injures 30: Security source

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Jun 2019 19:30

https://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Ira ... ews-593262

^^^ this would be the one that took video.

Iran refrained from shooting down a US plane with 35 people on board that was accompanying the downed drone in the Gulf, a Revolutionary Guards commander said on Friday.

Amirali Hajizadeh, head of the Revolutionary Guards aerospace division, was quoted as saying by Tasnim news agency: "With the US drone in the region there was also an American P-8 plane with 35 people on board. This plane also entered our airspace and we could have shot it down, but we did not."

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Jun 2019 19:31

The Associated Press
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Verified account

@AP
4h4 hours ago
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BREAKING: Revolutionary Guard general tells state TV that Iran warned US military drones several times before firing missile.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Jun 2019 19:32

video of the triton wreck the iranians have hauled in from the sea.

https://twitter.com/FieldMarshalPSO/sta ... 2557530114

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Jun 2019 19:34

more pix here

https://twitter.com/FieldMarshalPSO/sta ... 6024228866

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Jun 2019 19:38

Joyce Karam
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@Joyce_Karam
1h1 hour ago
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UPDATE : US - #Iran Escalation

• Trump sent msg to Iran via Oman: imminent attack, wants talks, gave a timeline, conveyed to Khamenei

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 21 Jun 2019 19:45

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/20/worl ... drone.html
Trump Approves Strikes on Iran, but Then Abruptly Pulls Back
By Michael D. Shear, Eric Schmitt, Michael Crowley and Maggie Haberman, June 20, 2019
WASHINGTON — President Trump approved military strikes against Iran in retaliation for downing an American surveillance drone, but pulled back from launching them on Thursday night after a day of escalating tensions.
As late as 7 p.m., military and diplomatic officials were expecting a strike, after intense discussions and debate at the White House among the president’s top national security officials and congressional leaders, according to multiple senior administration officials involved in or briefed on the deliberations. Officials said the president had initially approved attacks on a handful of Iranian targets, like radar and missile batteries.
The operation was underway in its early stages when it was called off, a senior administration official said. Planes were in the air and ships were in position, but no missiles had been fired when word came to stand down, the official said.
[For Mr. Trump, “judgment time is coming” on how to respond to Iran.]
The abrupt reversal put a halt to what would have been the president’s third military action against targets in the Middle East. Mr. Trump had struck twice at targets in Syria, in 2017 and 2018.
It was not clear whether Mr. Trump simply changed his mind on the strikes or whether the administration altered course because of logistics or strategy. It was also not clear whether the attacks might still go forwardAsked about the plans for a strike and the decision to hold back, the White House declined to comment, as did Pentagon officials. No government officials asked The New York Times to withhold the article.
The retaliation plan was intended as a response to the shooting down of the unmanned, $130 million surveillance drone, which was struck Thursday morning by an Iranian surface-to-air missile, according to a senior administration official who was briefed on the military planning and spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential plans. The strike was set to take place just before dawn Friday in Iran to minimize risk to the Iranian military and civilians. But military officials received word a short time later that the strike was off, at least temporarily.
.....
______________________________________________________________________________________________
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-48714414
US-Iran: Trump says military was 'cocked and loaded' to retaliate
President Donald Trump has said the US military was "cocked and loaded to retaliate" against Iran, but he changed his mind 10 minutes before planned strikes.
Attacks on three sites were planned in response to the shooting down of a US unmanned drone this week.
Mr Trump said he had called off strikes after being told 150 people would die.
He tweeted: "10 minutes before the strike I stopped it, not proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone". The late reversal was first reported by the New York Times on Thursday night. The newspaper said the operation had been "in its early stages" when Mr Trump stood the US military down. "I am in no hurry," Mr Trump said on Friday. "Our military is rebuilt, new, and ready to go, by far the best in the world."
Mr Trump said Iran had downed the drone on Monday, despite an earlier US military statement that the incident happened at 23:35 GMT on Wednesday (04:05 Iran time on Thursday).
.....
Gautam

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Jun 2019 19:48

Aircraft Spots
‏

@AircraftSpots
10h10 hours ago
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0340Z: USAF B-52Hs GRIMM21 & 23 from Al Udeid AB, Qatar active over the Persian Gulf.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Jun 2019 19:48

Jack Detsch
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@JackDetsch_ALM
16h16 hours ago
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The US and Iranian estimates of where the IRGC shot down a Navy RQ-4A Global Hawk are about 13 miles apart
US: 25°57'42.0"N 56°50'22.0”E
Iran: 25°59’43"N 57°02’25”E

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Jun 2019 19:50

there seems like twitter people out there even monitoring levels of HF traffic worldwide. they see spikes in HF traffic around world events as lot of govt and military HF network go live and traffic increases , and these entities move off the commercial networks into their own RF networks.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 21 Jun 2019 20:18

Gentlemen, I have a question. In case of a war between the US and Eyeran, how much is India obliged to support the US as per our mutual aid treaties with them. Are we to provide fuel to US assets? Allow US ships access to our ports? Allow their planes to land at our military/civilian airfields? Thanks.
Gautam

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Jun 2019 21:29

g.sarkar wrote:Gentlemen, I have a question. In case of a war between the US and Eyeran, how much is India obliged to support the US as per our mutual aid treaties with them. Are we to provide fuel to US assets? Allow US ships access to our ports? Allow their planes to land at our military/civilian airfields? Thanks.
Gautam

LEMOA treaty requires India to provide logistics support to US military. It went into full effect last fall. It’s unlikely to be used as the US has ME, Turkey and Diego Garcia resources available. In the case of emergency, USN and USAF can directly contact the IN and IAF for support.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 21 Jun 2019 22:04

Mort Walker wrote:
g.sarkar wrote:Gentlemen, I have a question. In case of a war between the US and Eyeran, how much is India obliged to support the US as per our mutual aid treaties with them. Are we to provide fuel to US assets? Allow US ships access to our ports? Allow their planes to land at our military/civilian airfields? Thanks.
Gautam
LEMOA treaty requires India to provide logistics support to US military. It went into full effect last fall. It’s unlikely to be used as the US has ME, Turkey and Diego Garcia resources available. In the case of emergency, USN and USAF can directly contact the IN and IAF for support.

I don't like it. The whole idea of siding with US against Iran doesn't sit well with me.

syam · Post by **syam** » 21 Jun 2019 22:45

We should be transactional. We will help them out if they let us~~fly f35 for our surgical strikes~~
Even that is also lame trade off.
Amerikis offer nothing on table. Who will die for them these days anyway. Their boys dying in deserts all the time. Not one single ally sending troops.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 21 Jun 2019 22:57

Mort Walker wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:United cancelled is Newark to Mumbai flight...
UA 48 and 49, EWR-BOM and BOM-EWR have been cancelled. It appears next flight is on Sunday. Let's see if that stands. Interestingly enough UA chose to limit or avoid Pak airspace and flew over Iran into Russia and then over Europe. My family is in BOM and will fly to EWR on Sunday 6/30. This whole mess has me worrying. The common person in India doesn't think about war in the terms of westerners as it is abhorrent to them.

Hope the journey goes safe and uneventful....

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 21 Jun 2019 23:19

^^^Thanks.

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 21 Jun 2019 23:55

Mort Walker wrote:^^^Thanks.

Safe travels!