Indian Foreign Policy

[NRao]

Jaishankar hits out at countries that criticise government, asks them to introspect on their own actions

‘We are not the only country dealing with disturbances in our neighbourhood. Europe has seen conflict; the US had 9/11. How did they respond?’ asked the External Affairs Minister at the Raisina Dialogue
India’s challenges of “terrorism, separatism and migration” are only a “national variant” of other countries that face similar global challenges, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said, referring to Kashmir, NRC and the protests over the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA).

Defending the government in response to a question posed to him at the MEA’s annual international conference “Raisina Dialogue” about how he deals with criticism in several world capitals, Mr. Jaishankar said those countries criticising India must consider how they themselves have dealt with the same issues.

“Others should answer, how did they respond? We are not the only country dealing with disturbances in our neighbourhood. Europe has seen conflict; the US had 9/11 (terror attacks). How did they respond? It is important to reflect on your own way of handling these issues. On naturalisation (immigration laws), what is the pathway they took?” said Mr. Jaishankar, adding that critics must not “get fixated on the dots and ignore the line” or big picture.

China relations

Mr. Jaishankar’s comments came even as a UN Security Council meet was due to get under way in New York, where China informed that it will raise the issue of Kashmir as a part of informal consultations. China’s decision came after a recent aborted attempt to raise the issue at the UNSC, which had already had one discussion on August 16 last year. In addition, China has overruled objections from other P-5 members like France, which said clearly that the “Kashmir issue must be settled bilaterally”. Also at the Raisina Dialogue, the Foreign Minister of Estonia, which is a non-permanent member of the UNSC also supported India’s stand that Kashmir is a bilateral issue.


In a session that lasted nearly an hour, Mr. Jaishankar parried questions on a range of issues, including India-US ties, which he called “wide-ranging”, the decision to walk out of Asian trade talks for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), “Brand India” and the relationship between India and China, which he called “No.2 and No. 3 in the world economy”.

“There is no doubt that we have to get on together. The challenge is only in the terms of the relationship. If you are No. 2&3 in the world economy and are neighbours, the logic of reaching a stable relationship is undeniable,” he said, adding that ties were a “work in progress”. He also said that the government has not “closed its mind” to joining RCEP, the 16-nation ASEAN led FTA that includes China.

To a question on whether India was more a “talker than a doer” on India’s connectivity and strategic projects in its immediate neighbourhood, Mr. Jaishankar, pointed to 142 connectivity projects worldwide of which 53 have been completed, pointing out specific road, rail and waterways in Nepal and Bangladesh.

‘India’s way’

When asked what “India’s way” in foreign policy is, the External Affairs Minister, who was a career diplomat from 1977-2018, said that India doesn’t wish to be a “disruptionist power, mercantilist or self-centred” but to be rules-based, and a “just and fair power”.

“We are a pluralistic society and a market economy. What has changed, with more influence and greater capacity, is that we express ourselves more decisively,” he concluded.

[NRao]

India not a disruptor, dealing firmly with terrorism: S Jaishankar

India's way is not to be disruptive and it is more of a decider than an abstainer, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said Wednesday at a Delhi event.

In remarks that come at a time that several countries have called for a greater Indian role in the Indo-Pacific, Jaishankar also said it is not the India way to be mercantilist.

"India owes it to itself and to the world to be a just power," he said.

New Delhi is not a disruptor and is firmly dealing with terrorism, Jaishankar said.

................................

[habal]

Come on Philip, Solemani is/was no Yamamoto.
He is more like Himmler
and the IRGC are akin to SS.
They are not regular troops and report to the Ayatollahs.
And even they are breathing a sigh of relief after realizing they are safer now.

If Russia had to save Syria all by itself with its airforce, ballistic missiles and artillery, then that would be akin to this famous situation

Operation is successful sir

patient is dead

It was the quds forces/lebanese hezbollah/katain hezbollah provided by soleimani that managed to remove the isis/takfiris/wahabbis from Syria with pin point precision without collateral damage of eliminating moderate and nationalist syrian sunnis, alawis, druze, xtians, yazidis. circassians.

Like they say

'Syria is not a country,

it's a state of mind'

Or like famous french historian Andre Parrot said

"Every person has two homelands,his own and Syria." Historian Andre Parrot.

If I read Putin correctly he had made the determination that he would not allow destruction of eastern orthodox heritage and strategic balance in mediterranean/black sea passage to be toppled over, eradicated by zionist-west-wahabi collaboration. That much is clear, he visits unassuming and unheard of monastries in Syria all the time. He has the intelligence back up to read two steps ahead of the rest and knows what follows if this heist is successful. Apparently a more serious threat than NATO forced in land locked balkans. US is stepping back and making way for new unnamed, unformed superpower and while this is done Russia will not stand for any of its routes blocked.

As far as motivations of Soleimani go, we need to refer to non-western sources to read into his intentions. He never went chopping takfiri heads but his moves were all in retaliation to takfiris killing of shii in Syria/Iraq. There is a lot of difference between shii cerebralism and sunni salafi takfirism. If Soleimani was a diabolical first mover, hyper planner as Trump accused him, things in Syria would never have come to this pass in 2015 when 3/4th of country was in hands of takfiri militia. Himmler on other hand was a first mover who built positions before allies could think of it.

By supporting US/gcc/takfiri/SD narrative on Soleimani we are basically toeing the line that ottoman turkish islamism and aurangzeb's islamism was a force for positive and it is the shii bahmani types that wrecked havoc.

[Karthik S]

India not a disruptor, dealing firmly with terrorism: S Jaishankar

India's way is not to be disruptive and it is more of a decider than an abstainer, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said Wednesday at a Delhi event.

In remarks that come at a time that several countries have called for a greater Indian role in the Indo-Pacific, Jaishankar also said it is not the India way to be mercantilist.

"India owes it to itself and to the world to be a just power," he said.

New Delhi is not a disruptor and is firmly dealing with terrorism, Jaishankar said.

................................

From 38:00 he talks about hard military power. Best part IMO.

[Philip]

Well put Habal,esp. the point about supporting in effect the Wahaabi/Aurangzeb ,Ottoman Caliphate ideology and their bloodthirsty methods for controlling the ME/ W.Asia region.

PS: Looking at the list of the 13 FMs coming to Delhi, only 5 can be considered top drawer.Russia, Australia,S.Africa, Iran and the EU ( but not the individual heavyweights like Germany,France,Spain,Britain,Italy,etc.). Uzbekistan, Hungary and Denmark may be considered as important states too. Of our neighbours, Nepal, Sri Lanka,Bangladesh and Burma aren't to be found at this high- powered international conclave in their own backyard.Tsk,tsk.A veritable snub to us? Is the FM from AFG there? I may have missed him,but ex- Pres. Karzai,he fashion icon of the cloak of many colours will add " colour" to the gathering. Will all visitors be handed out a Modi Jacket for the photo-op.?Please, pretty please,do it FMJai! it will speak more loudly than any pompous long-winded speech of the success of the Indian global diplomatic achievement. Imagine over 100 firangis wearing OUR national dress of the day!

Of the African nations Tanzania is an important old friend,of vital geo- strategic importance being heavily wooed by China. The other " exs", are a collection of "also rans" , with minnows like the Baltic states making up the rump. It would've been good to see ASEAN represented in fitter form ,after all some of them lust for Brahmos! Sadly the US has abandoned pole position to Lavrov to make the running,sending only a minor flunkey instead of a Trump confidante.It would've been interesting to see the cut and thrust of a debate of equals. His ( Lavrov) statement ridiculing the phrase " Indo- Pacific" ( aka a Pax Americana of the IP region) will make some our mandarins cringe, the kind who want to join Uncle Sam's nautical posse to raise the standard against the inscrutable oriental, China.

[NRao]

When was the last time India had 13 FMs visit at the same time? And, which other nation has managed such a gathering? Strange that one complains.

The old, stale methodology, thankfully, is out.

[Karthik S]

What is suswamy's obsession with sending our troops to Afghanistan helping US get out of there. His only justification is that we buy whatever we want from them.

[Vikas]

^^ Why should one pay attention to flop retired biased Babus who are responsible for shackling Bharat. It aint that anyone was a genius. We are the ones berating Indian Babudom forever and suddenly what they say becomes oh-so-erudite.

You know who they train an elephant?
They tie a chain to its leg and it struggles to free itself and eventually learns to accept being tied.
Then they put a small rope and it still thinks its a chain.

The long double colonization and killing off the ruling class is the chain that was used to tie India.
Now the thin string of Congress rule was used to self control it.
Then we had willing Gungadins as mahouts that changed a war elephant into a timber crane elephant.

No more.

Vikas NaMo reminded the babus its only a string and no longer a chain.
That's the difference.
if Philip were awake he would see the sea change in West Asia from Indian diplomacy.

Brilliant post Ramana Ji.
We have a elephant that has been brought up in front of a mirror showing him up as harmless Gazelle who can only play cute and fear for his safety from the Jackals & Hyenas roaming around.
Most of the Indians have consumed this Kookaid and are unwilling or uncomfortable if Bharat punches as per its weight
or tries to charge at any of the vultures.

[pankajs]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-_3Rrqqvhg
Fluid Fleets: Navigating Tides of Revision in the Indo-Pacific | Raisina Dialogue 2020

[dinesh_kimar]

When was the last time India had 13 FMs visit at the same time?

Saar, I'm sure we did similarly well during Panditji's times in the 50s.

However, important metrics showing Indo- Chinese trade , and counter force against Chinese hegemony will come up woefully inadequate.

[V_Raman]

I am saying this probably for Nth time here: Indian troops in AFG is a must for India to secure its borders and project power to ME.

[ramana]

As there is more interest in Raisina Dialogs
here is the speaker list of 2019

https://www.orfonline.org/raisina-dialo ... kers-2019/


Current speakers 2020:

https://www.orfonline.org/raisina-dialogue/

Also can find old dialog reports from 2016 on wards in pdf.

Current dialogs programs:

ttps://www.orfonline.org/raisina-dialogue/programme/

Looks like 16 Jan program is insightful.
On technology etc.

https://www.orfonline.org/raisina-dialogue/programme/

[ramana]

I am saying this probably for Nth time here: Indian troops in AFG is a must for India to secure its borders and project power to ME.

This is an assertion and not an argument leading to the assertion.

So please tells us how you got there?

[Raveen]

When was the last time India had 13 FMs visit at the same time?

Saar, I'm sure we did similarly well during Panditji's times in the 50s.

However, important metrics showing Indo- Chinese trade , and counter force against Chinese hegemony will come up woefully inadequate.

Yes, under Nehru's regime when people didn't know the reality of what was to become of India, when has it happened since?

[banrjeer]

I am saying this probably for Nth time here: Indian troops in AFG is a must for India to secure its borders and project power to ME.

In some shape or form India has to start acting outside of its borders and sanitize its surroundings.
It's not just Afghanistan but all around. You can't go anywhere beyond a 5 trillion economy unless corporate India also starts seeing the light and plans accordingly.

Theres no way in hell you can protect your growing assets unless there's investment in internal and external security. Whats the point of high speed rail or a 5g network if you breed retards hell bent on burning things down following orders from outside.

I disagree on Jaishankar's statement that India should not be a disruptor. You can't live only on decisions forced on you and claim decisiveness is all thats needed, but you need to force decisions on others to stay ahead.

A nation of India's size cannot be forever passive. The world is catching up to it and will not leave it alone. The past 70 years were a grace period. With a rising asset base things will only get more hairy.

[ramana]

I thought small countries got a chance to tell their point of view better than any where else.
Calling them minnows is unfair.

[NRao]

I am saying this probably for Nth time here: Indian troops in AFG is a must for India to secure its borders and project power to ME.

There has to be some game plan to - at the very least - assist in a stable A'sthan given India is investing in Chabahar.

A nation of India's size cannot be forever passive. The world is catching up to it and will not leave it alone.

Walmart has.

Amazon is next.

The invasion is passive in nature. And, will not disturb the cricket + Bollywood janata from their deep slumber.

India, now, is one of the most data rich nations anywhere. In 10 years I can expect a doctor sitting in Austin, TX telling Indians they absolutely need **** or some other chemical to support his sponsoring pharma company increase their stock price.

[Philip]

The Q is not how many FMs are present, but how much combined weight is there in the gathering, to make a difference in the global issues being discussed.My point about " minnows" is in this context. Yes,they may indeed have an equal voice, equal time, but does the world community today listen to them as equals?

I donot thiink we should send troops to AFG. Bismark's famous statement that " the Balkans wasn't worth the life of one Pomeranian grenadier", comes to mind.We've had the British- on a few occasions, the Russians,NATO forces, the Yanquis- still bogged down , and sundry Pakis all "bleedin' their guts out on AFG's dusty plains,waiting for the women to come out and cut up what remains", to quote Kipling.All these powers got bb;
That doesn't mean that we should abandon AFG. Networking with other C.Asian powers , Russia,etc.,even the US if it lets us, to work out a combined force,even a UN force to take care of security on the ground .I admit that it is no easy joke, but the screws have to be put on Pak primarily to end the conflict.

PS: For a more forceful FP by India,it demands z capable military to back up the diplomacy.Sadly the dwindling defence budget in the face of relenrtless Chinese military expansion is akin to retreating from the issue. Cuts everywhere, with what will our forces fight with beyond a week?

[uddu]

Frankly Christ doesn't need a single statue put up,but Christians following his teachings of love instead! However,
how would this read in the Christian west?

Love? Is it love when Christ says i'm the only one and only through me you'll reach heaven? Calling others as Pagans. The atheists burning in hell? Punishment for those who don't' believe in him. That's hardcore fundamentalism. The mask of love has been used for millennia to mask the genocides done in the name of Christs. Not worth it. Its better if you could adopt the ways of All paths lead to thee ideas if you want really to spread love.

[sanjaykumar]

Don’t be impudent.

(These comments on Christian love are not a rebuke for you personally Phillip. I hope you know that).

[Philip]

Too little time and space for a theologian discussion here! No need for starting another crusade in cyberspace whar? Christ never said harm your enemies,but do good to them sacrificing his life in the process.Anyway, It is a fact that " Christian" entities are responsible for some of the worst atrocities in human history and that the all- embracing aspect of Hinduism,which is a cosmic understanding of our existence must be lauded for allowing all faiths to flourish in our country. I have Hindu relatives in my family too.Not a Catholic though, I think some time ago in 2016 even Pope Benedict, a very conservative pope, said that there was a place in heaven for non- Christians too.The current Pope Francis has said something similar about atheists as well! Remarkable times we're living in.

PS: I don't know what the US EJ outfits are saying about the pontifications of the popes!

[Vips]

China fails in its bid to rake up General Manoj Naravane's remark at UNSC.

China, at Pakistan's behest, is learnt to have brought up Army chief General Manoj Mukund Naravane’s recent remarks on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir at the UN Security Council meet on Wednesday, in its failed attempt to build a case that India was preparing a military action against its western neighbour.

After taking charge last week, Naravane had said: “As far as Pakistan-occupied Kashmir is concerned, many years ago there was a parliamentary resolution on it that entire J&K is part of India. If Parliament wants that area should also belong to us, if we get orders to that effect, then definitely we will take action on it.” This soon became part of a new SinoPak strategy to not focus on Article 370 but try and project India as an aggressor so that UNSC could consider the subject under the category of 'threat to peace and security'.

In August last year, China had raised the subject as a matter of law, arguing that withdrawal of Article 370 altered the legal status of J&K as perceived by the UN. Threat to peace and security along with violation of human rights and international law are the three routes through which China can raise the matter at the UN for the benefit of Pakistan.

Besides Naravane's remarks, sources said, certain comments of CDS General Bipin Rawat were also used along with claims that ceasefire violations had increased and that the LoC/border fence had been cut at five places.

The US is believed to have led the response by asking tough questions of China on why would India want to cut a fence which it built using public funds. Germany, sources said, also was probing of Chinese claims based on the information provided by Pakistan. It was apparently demonstrated that verified ceasefire violations of the past two months, which Pakistan itself had reported to the UNMOGIP, were lesser than the previous months. The data was used effectively by other countries supporting India.

The UK, which had taken India by surprise last year by trying to be neutral, came out strongly in India’s favour, sources said. China is also believed to have relied on reports that India had moved Brahmos missiles closer to the border and conducted some tests in a bid to threaten Pakistan. These too were refuted, especially on any allusion to nuclear provocation given that both countries had recently exchanged a list of their nuclear installations.

Russia, it’s learnt, was a bit subdued in the discussions, which India believes is an indication of growing Chinese pressure on Moscow. Eventually, it was agreed that sufficient bilateral channels exist between India and Pakistan to resolve any misconceptions rather than have the UNSC intervene. Meanwhile, New Delhi is preparing to face the next diplomatic challenge at the Geneva-based UN Human Rights Council within the next two months.

[ramana]

Boris Johnson vs Theresa May's way of looking at India.

[pankajs]

https://stratnewsglobal.com/no-boots-on ... -pressure/
No boots on the ground in Afghanistan: India firm against US pressure

[khatvaanga]

this is a phenomenal speech by Dr S Jaishankar at Center for Strategic and International Affairs in October.

https://twitter.com/threadreaderapp/sta ... 17056?s=20

I have done three more threads about his [i.e Modi's] thoughts on their foreign policy. Please let me know if I should put them here.

[ramana]

Please do so. And if you can the full text of your tweets for posterity.

[khatvaanga]

As simple as that - For us, foreign policy has strong developmental focus now as we explore sourcing technology, best practices, capital, resources and collaborations with global partners

It is certainly an aspect that I believe Finland should study closely in identifying further prospects for the growth of our relationship. - straight to the point. no ambiguity there at all.

We know that the epicentre of global terrorism is there right in our neighbourhood. Sadly, past neglect has come to haunt many distant regions of the world.

It is, therefore, vital that various aspects of this challenge – including radicalization, financing and statesponsorship
– are addressed by all of us together. - This is what NM govt is working on doing to Pak. addressing all of these issues.

Transformation of India is part of the larger rise of Asia and of global rebalancing. India’s development is
less autarchic than those of other Asian nations preceding it on the growth charts. -- haha. dig at china. and reminding the west.

India’s rise also has its outward dimensions. Dr JS says
a. Ops and investments by indian companies abroad.
b. Greater trade in goods and services.
c. Increasingly successful and prosperous diaspora


The larger rebalancing also has a cultural and political component. -- a very very key statement. hence in isolation.

Unlike many other societies where nationalism is a rejection of global commitments, a more selfconfident India actually embraces the world more strongly. A better standing in the world is widely welcomed and foreign policy resonates at the popular level.

It is natural that a more diversified and multi-polar world would have broader conversations.

The rise of a civilizational state like India with its international traditions will have profound consequences, for the world.
read. and re-read.
This is for our immediate neighborhood -

This envisages a generous and non-reciprocal effort at building connectivity, contacts and commerce in a seriously under-regionalized geography.
what a phenomenal statement this is.

"It was our choices that made democracy a global norm, rather than just a Western one."

we are resetting expectations and reality at the same time.
New realities will lead to new equilibriums. And that in turn needs open minds. This is not just a matter of politics or economics. It is also about culture, values, heritage and norms.

-- did you get it? our Dharmic - Culture, Values, Heritage and Norms
still have a doubt? then Dr JS removes it --

"The era of undifferentiated globalization is over, and with it, the over-confident prescriptions for others."

"The time has come for us all to recognize that cultural expressions and national interests will be critical factors in the conduct of global affairs.

And it is in this give and take that the new global order will take shape."
another statement that should be framed on every foreign policy wonk's desk

"Indeed, we could be staring at the prospect of greater multi-polarity but weaker multilateralism."
and how does NM and by extension @DrSJaishankar see India's rise?

"What India will not be is mercantilist, self-centred, cynical or unreliable"
mentions from - Remarks by EAM at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA) (September 20, 2019)


those in blue are my comments / color commentary. Bold also things I think are very very key statements.

[khatvaanga]

"Indo-Pacific must be perceived as the further extrapolation of the Act East – Look East policy. It is also an affirmation that India would no longer be limited in the pursuit of its interest to its immediate neighborhood. " Dr JS. wow. wow. wow.

Given the steady externalization of its economy and the shift in focus towards the East, India cannot remain unaffected by developments impinge on the freedom of navigation or of overflight. - a straight no holds barred straight talk. those addressed understood this.

A comprehensive maritime strategy naturally has a spectrum of priorities and these, in India’s case, are best depicted in terms of concentric circles. -- straight out of Chanakya's playbook.

SAGAR – Security and Growth for All in the Region.
Four key elements
a.Safeguard our mainland and islands, defend our interests, ensure safe, secure and stable Indian Ocean and make available our capability to others.
b.Deepening economic and security cooperation with our maritime neighbors and strengthening their capacities
c.Collective action and cooperation to advance peace and security and respond to emergencies
d.More integrated and cooperative future for the region that enhances sustainable development

Concentric Circles of Maritime Strategy
a.Core - maritime infrastructure of the homeland, development of island assets, connectivity to immediate neighbors with littoral implications and capabilities
b.Next circle includes the maritime space beyond India’s waters and its immediate island neighbors like Sri Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius and Seychelles. Part of it the revival of the Indian Ocean as a community that builds on its cultural and historical foundations
c.Outermost circle takes India into the pacific engaging convergent interests to ensure core security while promoting stable periphery
Strengthening a sense extended neighborhood is part of India’s reclaiming of history.

golden words.
This is from speech given at Indian Ocean Conference at Maldives on September 03, 2019.

[khatvaanga]

Here is a thread on @DrSJaishankar 's speech at Center for Strategic and International Studies on "Preparing for a Different Era". His pièce de résistance of his first tour of US as EAM in 2019.

"The primary characteristics of the world politics today are the rebalancing of the global economy and polity as well as the sharpening contradiction between the United States and China.
Both powers are engaging today in a manner very different from their past."

a short preamble on how the world has functioned so far a.k.a Multilateralism 101.
"Between nation states and international community stood intermediaries, alliances, regional structures of likeminded partners. "
"The default solution to any significant challenge was through shared endeavors.

While the practical world of business provided the bedrock of independence, of interdependence, multilateral rules and institutions decided how these businesses actually ran."

"The growing imperative of burden-sharing was combined with an appreciation of influences beyond formal structures" IOW- for instance, Soviet influenced indian thought process until 92 and since then it has been more American influence. Now that is coming to a close or reducing

"Its three key principles that we have taken for granted-
•access to global markets,
•value of global supply chains and
•reliance on global skills mobility"

/end exposition on multilateralism.


But what changed?

"This world evolving steadily since 1945 stands eroded today by
•the disenchantment with globalization,
•anger at mercantilism and
•an inability to accept changes. "

so the world order of 1945 stands exposed today (almost)

"Opposition to globalized business will naturally undermine its governing rules and affect the institutions that oversee it."

a very profound statement - "One of the key challenges facing the world today, which is all that we took as a given over the last 70 years, things are happening beyond them and that is creating a new kind of international relations."


"The world order is visibly changed but the new one is not yet in sight. Perhaps there will be none for quite some time."
anyone who disputes has very less idea about geopolitics tbh.

he talks about the timeframe for this upheaval -

"The structural impact on the global order of these developments are likely to be visible over the next generation that would have many dimensions- each one of them itself is a factor of disruption."
now on to the changes itself. He lists these 6 -
"1.World will be multipolar.
2.A more nationalistic approach to international relations will weaken multilateral rules in many domains.
3. Such a world is likely to fall back on balance of power as its operating principle rather than collective security or a broader consensus. History has demonstrated that this approach usually produces unstable equilibriums.
4.World affairs will see a proliferation of frenemies, they will emerge in both categories, allies who publicly turn on each other or competitors who are compelled to make common cause on issues
5.More transactional ethos will promote ad hoc groupings of disparate nations who have a shared interest on a particular issue
6.The combination of these developments will encourage more regional and local balances with less global influence on their working "


re-read the above and you can see it happening real time all around us.

some more sticks to measure the change -

"Including India, half the 20 largest economies of the world are nonwestern now. So return to a bipolar world seems more unlikely. "

"The reality is that the space yielded by the West has been filled by many players, not just China." <-- see this? we Indians dont acknowledge this or even pay attention. world does.

so how will the New World Order look?
"What will emerge is a more complex architecture characterized by different degrees of competition, convergence and coordination.

Those nations who have been in an alliance will be unsettled the most.
The momentum of the past however can still keep combinations alive of nations who may differ about the present.

The different era is one of focused agreements, specific agendas, flexible arrangements and greater customization.
Comfort is the new commitment. A world of multiple choices is increasingly opening up at different levels.

For a number of reasons the game has now become one of positioning and optimizing.
The weight of history and the compulsions of politics will make sure that convergences end up as some form of collectivism. Eventually beliefs and values will result in thus.

The way forward is more likely to be new forms of accommodation rather than pure transactions"

and how does Indian Foreign Policy hope to operate in such a turbulent world?

"The skill that current diplomacy therefore values more is the ability to engage contesting parties at the same time with optimal results. "
golden statement.

"There is a reason why going up the global hierarchy is judged by the ability to successfully manage conflicting priorities." <---- when the dust settles this statment will look like a no brainer.

"Finding common points to engage with as many power centers will characterize diplomacy at its highest level."
for example India engaged China at Wuhan, Russia at Sochi and 2+2 with US almost all simultaneously!!

"The reality is that India either reaches out in as many directions as possible and maximizes its gains or takes a more defensive approach of avoiding engagement." a.k.a stupid non alignment bs.

"As a broad approach it'll be reflected in the primacy of long term thinking over short term calculations."
all our interactions, transactions everything is geared towards this only.

"In this world what were presumed to be intractable challenges will have to be addressed, not ducked."
my take-to matter in this new order v've to fix our issues without kicking can down the road. [a 370, UCC, CAA, & eventually PoK & PoL will become imperative to be addressed]



Dr John Hamre - what do you think happens to the institutions of internationalism that we have today, the World Bank, the IMF, the UN?

Dr JS - What we have seen is that many institutions have come under stress because either, they've lost legitimacy, vitality, efficiency.
If significant countries don't get their substantial interests sorted out there, they start looking elsewhere. Example – the new trade agreements that are being churned out everywhere which are parallel to the WTO etc.

So in effect @DrSJaishankar s mandate is to have EAM ready for the changes both on going and upcoming.

This was a phenomenal speech. Those interested in geopolitics should read and re-read. This speech ill be talked about for decades to come.

mentions and remember "What India will not be is mercantilist, self-centred, cynical or unreliable." is what he said elsewhere.

[khatvaanga]

In a different speech [WEF India Economic Forum on Oct 03, 2019] he mentions this -->

We are really completely HR dependent; our future is completely HR dependent.

Modi government's FP -->
To prepare yourself for a future by improving the quality of your HR and getting your people prepared for a different world.

If you look at the totality of all the programs this govt does, there's a single thread that connects them and the single thread is really to improve the quality of human resources of this country.

I would certainly like to see Indian foreign policy have a bigger footprint, to see it much more influential in determining the outcomes of global issues, to obviously see our interests and influence secured in our immediate periphery and beyond.

I'm very conscious that we are preparing a foreign policy for a country which would be the third largest economy, which would be the most populous country and which carries a lot of burdens of the past, in the sense that we missed a lot of opportunities in the past beginning with 1945 when the global order was fashioned.

And Dr S Jaishankar's mandate is this -->
So how do you make up for all the things which you lost out on and yet prepare for all the things that await you? It will require a lot of thinking through, a lot of imagination and a lot of energy and I tried to at least prepare a launching pad for it.

[khatvaanga]

done sir. also working on an article which ties all of these threads together. will post it here when I am done along with my notes since they are quite exhaustive.

[arshyam]

^^ Kudos for taking detailed notes and sharing it sir.

[ramana]

Great job.
Want to vote you as best under 150 posts contributor to the Forum.

[khatvaanga]

Great job.
Want to vote you as best under 150 posts contributor to the Forum.

thanks sir. means a lot to me coming from you.

[JE Menon]

The speech khatvaanga is referring to. Thanks for the notes!

[khatvaanga]

DrSJaishankar 's comments at Ramnath Goenka Lecture on Nov 14, 2019. Would rate this on par with the CSIS one. Some paraphrasing and some verbatim -
"Einstein could have easily been famous for a theory of insanity. His definition of - doing the same thing over and over again - and expecting different results. A corollary of that is to do the same thing in different situations - and then expect the same results."

"If the world is different, we need to think, talk and engage accordingly. Falling back on the past is unlikely to help with the future."

"American nationalism, rise of China, Brexit & rebalancing of the global economy are often cited as dramatic examples of change. In fact, the phenomenon is far more pervasive than just these illustrations. We have seen the return of old empires like Russia, Iran or Turkey"

in case you missed the most important line above - Return of the old empires like Russia, Iran or Turkey.

Will talk about this some other time. Now continuing..
" What defines power and determines national standing is also no longer the same. Technology, connectivity and trade are at the heart of new contestations". in other words, old dogmas aint true anymore.


"The first caution is to avoid obsessing about consistency, because it makes little sense in such changing circumstances.

There is certainly a place for constants, but not to the extent of elevating them to immutable concepts."

"And the real obstacle to the rise of India is not anymore the barriers of the world, but the dogmas of Delhi."

"But most agents of change encounter the accumulated ‘wisdom’ of the entrenched, or the passionate argumentation of the polarized.

In India, we also meet an obsession with words."

"In approaching such a world in transformation, we must recognize that assumptions need to be regularly revisited and calculations frequently revised"

what we did good -
"India has advanced its interests effectively when it made hard-headed assessments of contemporary geopolitics."

when we did bad -
"The pursuit of an apparently consistent course despite changing circumstances often led us to lose the plot."


What @DrSJaishankar is doing now
"What it really suggests is a need for an unsentimental audit of Indian foreign policy."

and then prepare it for the future when we will be regional power a.k.a one pole of the multi-polar world.

Do we change? Dr JS gives some examples -
"A misreading of geopolitics and economics upto 1991 stands out in contrast to the reformist policies thereafter."

another life lesson
"Whether it is events or trends, they all bear scrutiny for the lessons they hold."


mentions Six phases of Indian Foreign Policy
1. The first phase from 1946-62 could be characterized as an era of optimistic non-alignment. 1962 War with China brought this period to an end and also damaged India’s standing.
2. The second phase from 1962-71 is a decade of realism and recovery. It looked beyond non-alignment in the interest of national security. It now saw emergence of limited cooperation between the US & USSR. Sino-US rapprochement of 1971 ended this phase.
3. The third phase, from 1971 to 1991, was one of greater Indian regional assertion. High point was the creation of Bangladesh, the low IPKF misadventure in Sri Lanka. It was a particularly complex phase as the US-China-Pakistan axis which came into being at this time.
4. Dissolution of USSR and emergence of a "unipolar” world characterized the phase between 1991 to 1998. It shifted focus to safeguarding strategic autonomy. By the turn of the century, enough had happened for India to now shift gear again and move to a higher level.
5. Where India gradually acquired the attributes of a balancing power between 1998 to 2014. It is reflected in the India-US nuclear deal as well as a better understanding with the West at large.
6. From 2014 on. A confident China started to flex its muscle and the American trumpet sounded increasingly uncertain. Europe too turned increasingly inwards, not appreciating that political agnosticism would have its own cost.


"As the world saw a wider dispersal of power and more localized equations, it was evident that multi-polarity was now seriously upon us.

Clearly, this called for a very different approach than practicing politics with a more limited set of dominant players."

"What it has brought out is not just the limitations of others, but the expectations that the world has of India."

"Our ability to shoulder greater responsibilities at a time when the world is more reticent is also evident."

"The objective that a multi-polar world should have a multi-polar Asia at its core."

"It is the nations who have an optimal mix of capabilities, relationships and positioning who can aspire to occupy the multiple poles of the emerging international order"

"The independent mindset that drove non-alignment and then protected our strategic equities can today be better expressed in multiple partnerships."

70 years of diplomacy has given us some data points or buckets to focus our efforts on. These are ...
Lessons learnt [or in other words things that we need to focus]
1. The first relates to the need for greater realism in policy. It was at some cost that we discovered that outcomes can be decided as much on the field as at conferences. [Reluctance to use power when needed]
2. Greater realism in the economic sphere. If one considers all the major growth stories since 1945, a common feature was the extraordinary focus that they put on leveraging the global environment.
3. To maximize options we need to engage multiple players. As a general rule, extracting more from the international system depends on the bigger picture and a zero-sum game cannot be an assumption. This is not just arithmetic but calculus.
4. Risk taking. It is evident that a low-risk foreign policy is only likely to produce limited rewards
5. Reading the global tea leaves right. We had certain wins and certain failures over the years. Identifying the opportunities thrown up by the structure of world politics can also help mitigate risks.

"The economy drives diplomacy; not the other way around."

another life lesson
"A changing world is clearly a more actionable one for those who do not wish to get left behind."


"The contours of even the near future are not yet clear. One solution is to anchor it on Indian aspirations and speak of our goal of emerging as a leading power"

What are our aspirations?
well..
a. SAGAR doctrine and Maritime geography.
b. Security challenges.
c. Humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.
d. Development assistance.
e. Branding such as International Yoga Day, International Solar Alliance etc.

These will put guardrails on our journey in 6th phase.

another life lesson
"Dogma treats every new approach as an unjustified deviation"


on international "pressure" roflmao - "Uninformed comments abroad on our internal affairs is hardly internationalization."

"Diligence and debate have not been as rigorous as they should for an aspiring player. When combined with the hesitations of history, it had led to unexplored avenues and unrealized outcomes"
our failure to capitalize past decades.


note this. i mean it. note it. "A nation that has the aspiration to become a leading power someday cannot continue with unsettled borders, an unintegrated region and under-exploited opportunities."
PoJK too. And Aksai Chin.

"The world that awaits us not only calls for fresh thinking, but eventually, a new consensus at home as well.

Putting dogmas behind us is a starting point for that journey"

/end

[khatvaanga]

This small (relatively) thread from @DrSJaishankar s comments at Raisiana Dialogue

On "What is that India way?" a great question.
"Let me start with what is not the India way, I think it is not the India way to be a disruptionist power internationally, we should be a stabilizing power.

The India Way -
1. A country which brings its capacities for global good, which is a net-security provider, is a contributor to connectivity, is firm in dealing with challenges like terrorism, which has her values and practices, addresses global issues like climate change
2. A country that would be to be more of a decider or a shaper rather than an abstainer.
3. A country that owes it to itself and to the world to be a just power, a fair power, to be a standard bearer for the South
4. A country that would shape even the international relations discourse with homegrown concepts, ideas, debates, traditional medicine.

There are already enough forces of disruption in the world. So, somebody needs to make up for it." lol.

on being asked "We are good talkers, we are not great builders. we dont complete projects"

Dr JS - "In last 5 yrs, we have 142 connectivity projects in different parts of the world. 53 of which have been completed." ok. i didnt know either.

"India is a prisoner of its past image. We have to leave that behind now"

on being asked about the new technology division in EAM -
"There are technologies which are strategic by their very nature, so for a Ministry which analyzes foreign affairs which contributes to national security to have a set of people who are competent , trained and focused to analyze those strategically relevant technologies "
"The second is there are technologies which when in the hands of strategic players become strategic."

on Indo-China relations -
"So, each one of the countries is reaching a new equilibrium with the world but also with each other at the same time."
"for me this is a must; it's not a choice and I'm reasonably sure somebody strategic in China would have a similar view"

on Indo-Aussies -
"I think we are two countries whose interests and approaches are really very convergent ."

on power (or influence as he says) projection -
"Today India has 16 wide shipping agreements. It has given naval equipment ships to 8 of its Indian Ocean neighbours, it has coastal surveillance radars in 6 countries, it has done 7 HADR operations in the last 5 yrs"

"It has today extended defense lines of credit close to $2 B dollars to 11 countries, it has trained more than a 1000 troops in the last 5 years, it has military training teams in 11 countries, it does hydrographic cooperation with 5 of its maritime neighbours" -- all news to me

"One aspect of rebalancing where India is concerned is, today are we going to define ourselves or are we going to let other people define us?

I would like to believe that it's the first. Certainly that's my political outlook. It's a political outlook of the government."

so in essence that has been @DrSJaishankar's message past few months and will be that in future too - "We are going to define ourselves"

/end

[Cain Marko]

I am saying this probably for Nth time here: Indian troops in AFG is a must for India to secure its borders and project power to ME.

Definitely. The only such is supply lines.

[Philip]

The huge shake-up in the MEA with a massive reorganisation, extra Addl.Secs. inducted to head vital divisions,etc. is v.welcome.It also underscores what one has been saying for aeons,that the MEA has in general,failed to delive the goods diplomatically and raise India's stature in global affairs,which was far higher decades ago when our economy was moving at snail's pace. That the head of our mission in SL was chosen to head that in Washington , where the former ambassador is thf new Sec. of the MEA is v.significant. There are huge opportunities for India to exert its soft power along with gentle reminders of our mailed fist in the silk glove, and garner together nations agreeing with the Indian viewpoint of global affsirs. India needs an Info- centric robust foreign policy avoinding getting sucked into a black hole of firang interests.

[khatvaanga]

The Jaishankar Model. A comprehensive list of ideas that Dr JS has been talking since he tool over as EAM.

https://www.myind.net/Home/viewArticle/ ... ne-itself/