India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[pankajs]

Stand-off with PLA pushes India to go for new snow-free axis to Ladakh.

<snip>

Officials said the third route requires upgrading the Darcha-Padum-Nimu trekking route into a metalled road and building a 4.5 kilometre tunnel under Shingo La on the Darcha-Padum route. The project, which has been in the pipeline for a decade, is scheduled to be completed by the defence ministry within two years.

In an effort to ensure that the project meets its two-year deadline, Gadkari’s ministry has proposed that the task to build the tunnel should be given to the company that constructed the 9.02 km tunnel at Rohtang La on the condition that it meets the timeline.

According to military commanders, the need to build the third axis was felt as tunnelling would be required under four more high mountain passes on the existing Manali-Leh route if the road has to be kept open throughout the year. The Atal tunnel at Rohtang La on this route has been built at a height of 10,171 feet and is already the world’s longest at this altitude.

The four passes that would require tunnels on the existing Manali-Leh route are at higher altitudes: Baralacha La (16,500 feet), Nakee La (15,547 feet), Lachung La (16,616 feet), and Tanglang La (17,480 feet). These passes are only open for traffic between mid-May to mid-November and covered with deep snow remaining part of the year.

However, the Darcha-Padum-Nimu route requires only a single 4.5 km tunnel through the 16,570 feet Shingo La between Darcha and Padum to ensure that the road is closed only for two months in winter (The lack of common sense is simply Mind-numbing. Shouldnt this tunnel have been built first rather then the Rohtang tunnel which by itself is meaningless and requires four other tunnels to be built to ensure year round connectivity to Ladakh). Darcha is 147 kilometres from Manali and lies on the highway to Leh after Jispa and Keylong across Rohtang La.

1. The 3rd axis has been in works for a while now. Not a new idea.
2. Shingo La tunnel WAS next in line after Rohtang La. This news just means that we are fast tracking it instead of the usual pace.
3. Without Rohtang tunnel the Shingo La tunnel would be as useful or useless as the other passes in winter. No allround the year Manali/Leh road without Rohtang tunnel. Rohtang tunnel is KEY to access Himachal and beyond from Ladakh.

[abhik]

China capitalising on the undefined LAC (By Maj-Gen Ashok K Mehta (retd))

The Indian non-response to the renewed Chinese assertion of what India calls its ‘unilateral aggression’ is to emphasise that the Indian troops will remain deployed opposite multiple intrusion points as long as the PLA does not disengage completely.

This is India in despair, unable to make China vacate the intrusions and now doing a kind of military satyagraha. But Modi has insisted ‘what India can do, the world has seen in Ladakh.’ Given that border protocols bar the use of military force, though unarmed combat is permitted as Galwan demonstrated, India should have intruded across the Chinese LAC at suitable places, besides blocking PLA intrusions. As the military option was realistically unavailable, an alternative to impose costs on China is paramount. The belated mention by CDS Gen Rawat of a military option appears more symbolic than effective coercion.

In many ways, India’s plight is similar to that of the Philippines where President Duterte has said that though he has a favourable verdict from the UNCLOS in 2016, on his country’s territorial claim, he cannot challenge China militarily.

Still, as diplomacy is the only way forward to untie the knot, a serious political engagement is vital. President Putin, who enjoys the best of relations with Modi (Sochi and Vladivostok summits) and Xi (who said in June 2019 that Putin is his best friend and colleague), can help break the stalemate.

:barf: I guess this is why we buy so many tin cans from Russia.

[mmasand]

China capitalising on the undefined LAC (By Maj-Gen Ashok K Mehta (retd))

:barf: I guess this is why we buy so many tin cans from Russia.

The camaraderie between Putin & Xi isn't exactly visible right now with several hammers thrown in, from a delay in delivery of S-400 linked to an espionage plot involving the CCP embassy, to the bizarre territorial claim over Vladivostok, may just throw us a lifeline into 2021. The quad will be worth watching out for post US elections, China absolutely hates groupings, and it will show.

[nachiket]

However, the Darcha-Padum-Nimu route requires only a single 4.5 km tunnel through the 16,570 feet Shingo La between Darcha and Padum to ensure that the road is closed only for two months in winter (The lack of common sense is simply Mind-numbing. Shouldnt this tunnel have been built first rather then the Rohtang tunnel which by itself is meaningless and requires four other tunnels to be built to ensure year round connectivity to Ladakh). Darcha is 147 kilometres from Manali and lies on the highway to Leh after Jispa and Keylong across Rohtang La.

I used to have this doubt but I think Rohtang tunnel is primarily for easing civilian traffic (avoiding the long winding pass) and providing winter connectivity to the locals in Lahaul-Spiti valley. I think the strategic benefit was secondary. Even for the military, remember that there are traffic jams in the pass in summer due to large numbers of military trucks delivering supplies plus the tourist traffic. The tunnel will improve that situation considerably.

[Anoop]

Very informative article by Rohit Vats on the road network in Ladakh:

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/c ... 2020-08-22

[Denis]

However, the Darcha-Padum-Nimu route requires only a single 4.5 km tunnel through the 16,570 feet Shingo La between Darcha and Padum to ensure that the road is closed only for two months in winter (The lack of common sense is simply Mind-numbing. Shouldnt this tunnel have been built first rather then the Rohtang tunnel which by itself is meaningless and requires four other tunnels to be built to ensure year round connectivity to Ladakh). Darcha is 147 kilometres from Manali and lies on the highway to Leh after Jispa and Keylong across Rohtang La.

I used to have this doubt but I think Rohtang tunnel is primarily for easing civilian traffic (avoiding the long winding pass) and providing winter connectivity to the locals in Lahaul-Spiti valley. I think the strategic benefit was secondary. Even for the military, remember that there are traffic jams in the pass in summer due to large numbers of military trucks delivering supplies plus the tourist traffic. The tunnel will improve that situation considerably.

I have driven through this region on multiple occasions, so sharing my view. Rohtang is the first pass on the route from Manali to Leh. It remains heavily snowbound and closed from October to at least mid of May. After crossing Rohtang, one travels to Keylong, then Zing Zing Bar and then Darcha. From Darcha, there are trekking routes to Shinku La & Padum and beyond which were quite popular in pre Chinese pandemic time. The plan since last 10 years has been to make a road from here (Darcha) to Padum through Shinku La, which is the only major pass on this route. There already exists a jeepable road from Kargil to Padum to the other side of Shinku La.

Thus, even for this road to be "all weather / season road", the Rohtang tunnel is a pre requisite. So the authorities were right in prioritising Rohtang tunnel.

Also, the current Manali Leh road is primarily used for de-inducting troops. The preferred road for moving troops and goods to Leh is the Srinagar Leh road, as that is less steeper, has only one major pass Zozi La and thereafter it is mostly snow free. Also, once you cross Zozi La, the road is much better and you get good speed on tarmac roads. The trucks and large vehicles can negotiate this road much better than the Manali road.

The Manali Leh road on the other hand has many high passes such as Nakee La, to reach which, one has to literally crawl through a patch of 21 steep hair pin bends called as Gata Loops. Most of the roads are eaten up by snow and carved and laid afresh every year by late June/ Early July.

[Mollick.R]

Rohtang: BRO puts finishing touches to Atal Tunnel ahead of inauguration
Written by Man Aman Singh Chhina | Chandigarh | Updated: August 27, 2020 1:33:45 pm

With Prime Minister Narendra Modi scheduled to inaugurate it in a month’s time, the Border Roads Organisation (BRO) is busy giving finishing touches to the strategic 9-km long Atal Tunnel under the Rohtang Pass in Himachal Pradesh.

Originally designed as a 8.8-km long tunnel and named after former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in a tribute to him on his 95th birth anniversary, fresh GPS readings taken by the BRO after the work on it was completed showed that it was 9 km in length. The tunnel will be the world’s longest above an altitude of 3,000 metres and will reduce the distance between Manali and Leh by 46 kilometres.

https://indianexpress.com/article/india ... n-6569780/

[Mollick.R]

Good Set of photographs in the linked articles

दुनिया की सबसे लंबी रोड टनल तैयार, सितंबर में पीएम मोदी करेंगे उद्घाटन, देखें फोटो
https://www.aajtak.in/trending/photo/at ... 20-08-26-1

Explained: The strategic importance of the Rohtang tunnel
Written by Man Aman Singh Chhina , Edited by Explained Desk | Chandigarh | Updated: August 27, 2020 3:27:43 pm
https://indianexpress.com/article/expla ... l-6572025/

A peek inside the Atal Rohtang Tunnel
Varada Gupta Delhi, August 24, 2020 UPDATED: August 25, 2020 00:58 IST
[url]https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-i ... 2020-08-24[/url

[Mollick.R]

[k prasad]

https://www.9dashline.com/article/india ... -himalayas

A very very interesting read.

[Mollick.R]

From Twitter // Baba Banaras

Dr. APR @drapr007
Situation along LAC is more dangerous than 1962. Military and politics both know it very well. The tension is not only in eastern Laddakh but there is tension on the entire border with China after the Indian Army in Sikkim has done the same what PLA has done in Eastern Ladakh.

12:19 PM · Aug 29, 2020·Twitter for Android

https://twitter.com/drapr007/status/1299600129293389824

[sankum]

Indian pushback will come in chumbi valley. Were the strategic gain is most prominent.

[sankum]

https://www.9dashline.com/article/india ... -himalayas

A very very interesting read.

That's how dictatorships in their grand visions and plan initiate wars.

Democracies don't initiate war. If China initiates war in any other sector than quite possible pushback will come from India.

[rsingh]

^^^^^

Democracies don't initiate war

I heard the same thing in USSR before Perestroika. Just change the word "Democracy" with "communism". So it is very complicated world.

[sankum]

Democracies I would say is only for Indian like not any other.

[Ashokk]

India not to take part in multinational exercise with China, Pakistan on Russian soil

NEW DELHI: In a big step in the backdrop of an ongoing conflict with China in eastern Ladakh, India is likely to convey to Russia that its troops would not be participating in the multinational military exercise Kavkaz-2020 where Chinese and Pakistani troops are also going to be there.
The Indian authorities have also taken into account the worsening global Covid-19 situation where India alone is witnessing over 70,000 positive cases daily to take a decision regarding participation in the wargames being held in the Astrakhan area of Southern Russia.
"A high-level meeting was held in South Block in which external affairs minister S Jaishankar and Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat were present. After the meeting, it was discussed that it would not be right to take part in the multilateral exercise where Chinese and Pakistani military personnel would also be present," defence sources told ANI here.

[VinodTK]

Cross posting from Defanging Chinese Threat thread:

First evidence of PLA casualty in Galwan Valley, picture of Chinese soldier's grave goes viral

The tombstone was erected on August 5, 2020
The picture is going viral on Chinese social media platform Weibo
China has not made any official statement about the casualties in Galwan

Please go to the link for details

[samirdiw]

Democracies I would say is only for Indian like not any other.

We like to maintain statusquo. This mindset has cost us dearly for the last couple of thousand years. Democracy is just a outer covering to this thought process which far preceeds 1950. It is time we recognize this shortcoming and make adjustments if we are thinking of anything other than meandering along history.

We tend to adjust to the environment. Western thought (and now chinese have learnt this) change the enivronment to suit them. Both have their merits for different situations. Not the place to go to deep into it but both are necessary. The ones with power can change the environment the ones without should try to reach there.

[Guddu]

https://www.9dashline.com/article/india ... -himalayas

A very very interesting read.

That's how dictatorships in their grand visions and plan initiate wars.

Democracies don't initiate war. If China initiates war in any other sector than quite possible pushback will come from India.

Something I read elsewhere...the discussion was wrt China attacking Taiwan.

"India will almost certainly (near 100%, IMHO) take advantage of the situation, if Taiwan benefits that would be great. India has for decades faced the threat of a two front war with Pak and China ganging up together as they are doing right now, and prepared for it (however imperfectly). Missing such an opportunity would be the biggest strategic blunder! and the current Modi govt is unlikely to let such an opportunity go by.

Infact my guess is India would not directly attack China but make a dash for Gilgit Baltistan and POK through which passes the CPEC. China will be in no position to defend Pak or get involved to save CPEC, nor do they have any legal rights in the matter. Once Gilgit-Baltistan is taken back, China's border access with Pak ends and China will agree to demarcate border between India and China. At that point Aksai Chin captured by China in the 1962 war and the few sq miles of current border issues will be renegotiated, perhaps exchanged in lieu of Mount Kailash and Lake Mansarovar which are hindu pilgrimage sites (abode of Lord Shiva per mythology). China needs Aksai Chin as an important highway G219 passes through it, for India that is just barren land and would be happy to take Mt.Kailash and Mansarovar instead.

China is aware that they could lose access to CPEC roads through POK which lead to Gwadar port (Pak) and have recently made alternate arrangements with Iran (40 billion investment) to have access to Chabahar port (Iraq) for warm water access. It is the official stated position of the BJP govt to take back POK/Gilgit-Baltistan soon.

As much as I wish that China will make a grab for Taiwan (and fail), it wont happen. Per the Indian news channels, China is being given a face saver to withdraw with their dignity intact. Many in the west have not given much attention to the Indian Chief of Defense Staff's statement, that if diplomacy with China will not work, military options are on the table. Indian military generals are very careful and never make such direct statements or empty threats. 6 Army Cmdr level talks, as well as several Foreign Secretary level talks have failed. Patience is running thin.

Based on the above thinking, China cannot attack Taiwan, unless they plan to remain a bystander while India takes back Gilgit/Baltistan. So yes, attacking Taiwan runs the risk of a difficult war, or at the very least loss of CPEC and access to POK.

China is $crewed, with whats going in the world and asia-pacific, not everyone appreciates this. Huawei is being rejected world wide, supply chains are being re-directed, new alliances are being formed. This megalomania of Xi has been very expensive and premature for the Chinese."

[k prasad]

If China won't accept any threats to the G-219 from materializing, any attack on Kailash-Mansarovar is also not going to happen, given how much closer it is to the G-219. Not only that, given that this region has been recognized for quite a while as being a part of Tibet, so it doesn't make any political sense either, unless the region is taken as part of a plan to create an "Azad Tibet", but that's yet another castle in the air, for the moment at least. More likely would be a push to bolster our territorial control around Demchok (across the indus and into Demchok proper), Depsang Plains, and in the Pangong Tso-Gogra axis, and possibly, some capture of territory as leverage - possibly around Chumur and Ukdungle, or the Chumbi Valley.

Again, all of this is extreme speculation, but lets try and keep the speculation at least mildly realistic

[Ashokk]

Post-Galwan clash, Indian Navy quietly deployed warship in South China Sea

NEW DELHI: Acting swiftly after the Galwan valley clash on June 15 in Eastern Ladakh, the Indian Navy sailed out its frontline warship for deployment in the South China Sea much to the displeasure of the Chinese who raised objections over the move during the talks between the two sides.
The Chinese have been objecting to the presence of Indian Navy ships in the region where it has significantly expanded its presence since 2009 through artificial islands and military presence.
"Soon after the Galwan clash broke out in which 20 of our soldiers were killed, the Indian Navy deployed one of its frontline warship to the South China Sea where the People's Liberation Army's Navy objects to the presence of any other force claiming the majority of the waters as part of its territory," government sources told ANI.
The immediate deployment of the Indian Navy warship in the South China Sea had a desired effect on the Chinese Navy and security establishment as they complained to the Indian side about the Indian warship's presence there during the diplomatic level talks with the Indian side, the sources said.
During the deployment in the South China Sea where the American Navy had also deployed its destroyers and frigates, the Indian warship was continuously maintaining contact with their American counterparts over secure communication systems, the sources informed.
As part of the routine drills, the Indian warship was being constantly updated about the status of the movement of military vessels of other countries there, they said, adding that the entire mission was carried out in a very hush-hush manner to avoid any public glare on Navy's activities.
Around the same time, the Indian Navy had deployed its frontline vessels along the Malacca Straits near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the route from where the Chinese Navy enters the Indian Ocean Region to keep a check on any activity of the Chinese Navy. A number of Chinese vessels also pass through the Malacca Straits while returning with oil or taking merchant shipments towards other continents.

[rsangram]

Democracies I would say is only for Indian like not any other.

We like to maintain statusquo. This mindset has cost us dearly for the last couple of thousand years. Democracy is just a outer covering to this thought process which far preceeds 1950. It is time we recognize this shortcoming and make adjustments if we are thinking of anything other than meandering along history.

We tend to adjust to the environment. Western thought (and now chinese have learnt this) change the enivronment to suit them. Both have their merits for different situations. Not the place to go to deep into it but both are necessary. The ones with power can change the environment the ones without should try to reach there.

I agree. It is just our mindset.

If we only change our mindset, we are capable of and actually provide a lethal response to the Chinese.

Any ideas, how we can change the mindset ?

[Guddu]

I believe this is changing, it already has with respect to Pak. With China, things are changing. 70 years of dhimmitude will need a generation to change.

[abhik]

There is a significant increase in the PLA deployment in one of their camps in Depsang in the past 2 weeks (going by the number of tents visible in sat images), wonder if these are new forces added to the theater or existing ones getting moved around.

[SidSoma]

From Twitter // Baba Banaras

Dr. APR @drapr007
Situation along LAC is more dangerous than 1962. Military and politics both know it very well. The tension is not only in eastern Laddakh but there is tension on the entire border with China after the Indian Army in Sikkim has done the same what PLA has done in Eastern Ladakh.

12:19 PM · Aug 29, 2020·Twitter for Android

https://twitter.com/drapr007/status/1299600129293389824

I am surprised that this has not received more coverage .....even in BRF. I think this is the right move, assuming this is true.

[sivab]

Seems around 80.

https://twitter.com/Taihoku1895/status/ ... 2390008832

[abhik]

From Twitter // Baba Banaras




https://twitter.com/drapr007/status/1299600129293389824

I am surprised that this has not received more coverage .....even in BRF. I think this is the right move, assuming this is true.

Er... because it's most likely a load of crap? In the age of public sat photos being available within 2-3 days, no significant move will remain hidden for long.

[Rakesh]

I would not post this otherwise (for a number of reasons), but since this is coming from Group Captain HV Thakur (retd) Sir, I will make an exception.

https://twitter.com/Owl_Princess_/statu ... 06432?s=20 ---> Don't wait till your deathbed to tell people how you feel. Tell them to f**k off today. #SundayMotivation

https://twitter.com/hvtiaf/status/12999 ... 77056?s=20 ---> Yup! How do you pronounce f**k off in Mandarin? Else they wouldn't understand.

[Leonard]

A VERY interesting "Political Statement" was MADE by WINNIE the POOH ...

>>
Chinese President Xi Jinping on Saturday said that the country must build an “impregnable fortress” to maintain peace and stability in Tibet and encourage the people to fight against separatism, South China Morning Post reported. He also called for an “ironclad shield” to ensure stability in the region.
Xi made the remarks at the Communist Party’s Central Symposium on Tibet Work. The symposium is China’s most significant forum to discuss Tibet. The Chinese president directed leaders at the meeting to “solidify border defences and ensure frontier security” in Tibet, which shares a border with India.

<<

NOW -- WINNIE the POOH -- has made TIBET an impregnable fortress -- since 1959 -- except for the chinese han hoor's who keep flunking the CHASTITY test ..

So why "this statement" NOW ?


Speculations are RIFE/Confirmed from ONE's THIRD COUSIN on SM -- Some LARGE CHUNK of TERRITORY has exchanged OWNERSHIP across from Sikkim ..

This is NOW up for CHAI-BISCOOT discussion in next MTG with HAN warlords ..

Failing which kinematics are expected in Mid Sept .. but who know's ??

[RajaRudra]

When Armed forces are doing Siachin operations, no one in public knows including media. May be some actions are already in motion and our perceived line in Sikkim is getting moved a bit north..

[abhik]

The road to winter

The army says it is not unduly worried about the Chinese deployments—the two PLA divisions present are insufficient for a military invasion of eastern Ladakh—and that they are only there to forestall the Indian side from exercising its military option.

The current stalemate could dramatically change, however, if the PLA brings in additional divisions from either the Xinjiang or Tibet military districts. The Western Theatre Command which both these military districts are sub-divisions of is China’s largest with a total of 230,000 soldiers and 157 fighter aircraft, with bases in Hotan, Ngari Gunsa, Nagqu, Qamdo, Lhasa/ Gonggar, Xigaze, Lingzhi and Dangxiong. The extensive Chinese road network means the PLA could quickly move its troops to threaten other sectors in India’s Northeast, in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh.

“We need intelligence of the minute-to-minute variety on the movement of these forces which could lead to future conventional operations. We need to reassure ourselves that our global strategic partners can provide us with that kind of intelligence,” says Lt General Rakesh Sharma, former GoC of the Leh-based 14 Corps.

Ok This was from a retired gen, but cringy never the less.

Since late July, the PLA has showed indications of digging in for the winter at its transgression in Pangong Tso where it has erected 40 prefabricated huts; around 15 tents have come up at Finger 5 area. Each of these heated prefabricated huts can accommodate up to 12 soldiers, ensuring a deployment of at least 480 troops in the location. It has erected a temporary pier for berthing a dozen patrol boats near Fingers 5 and 6 indicating its intent to control Finger 4.

By end of this year the PLA would have built Holiday Ins in the finger areas.

[AshishA]

Chinese wanted to unilaterally change the status quo on 29-30 Aug, our forces preempted them.

[sum]

We need to reassure ourselves that our global strategic partners can provide us with that kind of intelligence,” says Lt General Rakesh Sharma, former GoC of the Leh-based 14 Corps.

So we are intel-nude in the entire sector basically?

[Nihat]

Fresh clashes being reported on the night on 29/30 August between Indian and Chinese troops. I'm sure the details will come in due time but the government has been quick to release a statement.

https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.asp ... o.whatsapp

[sajo]

Fresh clashes being reported on the night on 29/30 August between Indian and Chinese troops. I'm sure the details will come in due time but the government has been quick to release a statement.

https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.asp ... o.whatsapp

The release seems to be really terse sans any details, especially about the type of clash (armed/unarmed), and the nature of casualties, if any. But the very fact that it has been put out there officially means something major has happened.

On the Night of 29/30 August 2020, PLA troops violated the previous consensus arrived at during military and diplomatic engagements during the ongoing standoff in Eastern Ladakh and carried out provocative military movements to change the status quo. Indian troops pre-empted this PLA activity on the Southern Bank of Pangong Tso Lake, undertook measures to strengthen our positions and thwart Chinese intentions to unilaterally change facts on ground. The Indian Army is committed to maintaining peace and tranquility through dialogue, but is also equally determined to protect its territorial integrity. A Brigade Commander level Flag Meeting is in progress at Chushul to resolve the issues.

[Cyrano]

Absence of words like "repelled" indicates no serious violence or casualties.
Seems like a statement intended to paint PLA as unprovoked aggressor.

[Nihat]

OSINT accounts on Twitter are hinting towards PLA causalities. Though they should be considered less reliable at best.

[sooraj]

@drapr007
·
5m
विश्वशनीय सूत्रों से जानकारी है। बच्चों ने बहुत बढ़िया चीनी (यों) का शरबत बनाया है। कम से कम 14 ग्लास ।।

[sajo]

@drapr007
·
5m
विश्वशनीय सूत्रों से जानकारी है। बच्चों ने बहुत बढ़िया चीनी (यों) का शरबत बनाया है। कम से कम 14 ग्लास ।।

Translated :

As per reliable sources, the boys have prepared an excellent sugar (Chini, in Hindi) juice, atleast 14 glasses of it. Does it mean we preemptively put out an official statement to avoid being called as the aggressive one?

[anmol]