ManuJ wrote:BTW, I still haven't gotten an unequivocal answer to the simple question I asked. Do you believe in Indian Navy's long-term plan or not?
Let me start off with this. My unequivocal answer is, yes I believe in the Indian Navy's long term plan. But does the MoD believe it? Because that is question we should be asking. And that question has been answered right here and I do not believe it will get any more authoritative than this. This quote below is from the Indian Naval Aviation thread, page 42, the second post from the bottom. I have provided the link below, but am reproducing the quote.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7308&p=2474392#p2474392
Vidur wrote:Intent, statements and action very rarely align in Indian Defence. The Naval budget is not enough even to pay for contracts signed before the MH-60 Romeo contract. How it will cater for the above requirements is a deep mystery. The situation is the same for the Air Force and Army.
I will leave it up to Vidur-ji to elaborate (or perhaps he may not want to). And Manu you are a smart man, so I am confident you can understand when I say this ---> he does not visit and post in BRF for time pass. If you require any clarification on that quote above, click on the link.
ManuJ wrote:Sorry, but you're wrong. It is all about the long term vision and planning. Funding is variable and a diminishing constraint given India's economic trajectory. You cannot give up on your long term plan if you're temporarily in a difficult financial situation. What you can do is make small alternations to the plan, delay the plan by a few years, etc. But to completely pivot on your long term plan and start following a different plan because of temporary financial constraints is irrational.
Intent, long term planning, desire, vision, capability, etc all comes down to "
willingness to fund". If there are no funds or no willingness to fund, how are you expecting anything to come into reality? And folks here get takleef, when others here are laughing at Naval HQ for grandoise plans.
This 65,000 ton aircraft carrier is not something that Naval HQ just came up with this year or last year. This plan has been there for a number of years. It once even went to the MoD for funds sanction (pre-COVID) in 2017 or 2016. Do you know what the MoD said? No way are we going to fund this. And the Chief at that time - on the previous Navy Day - stated that India will be building a 65,000 ton aircraft carrier with nuclear power and EMALS. Where is the long term plan?
This idea of a nuclear powered reactor was also in the plans. Here is the irony to that story. Naval HQ wanted BARC to fund the R&D of the reactor. You know what BARC did, when they heard that? They laughed at Naval HQ and then they told them, if you want a nuclear reactor for an aircraft carrier you have to provide the funding. Why should we? Navy Admirals were aghast at the idea that they had to fund this. They were expecting BARC to fund this. True Story. Where is the long term plan?
These 57 carrier borne fighters that the Navy is hoping to get, is expected to cost anywhere from 90,000 to 95,000 crore (that is around US $12+ billion). I clearly remember Admiral Sunil Lanba Sir stating that there is NO BUDGETARY CONSTRAINTS in acquiring 57 phoren carrier borne fighters. He said that at a Navy Day press meet. Today, that number is down to 36. And the earlier plan of holding a contest has gone out the window. Now the Navy will hop on to the IAF's MRFA contest and whatever aircraft the IAF choses, the navy will order the same. Where is the long term plan?
The latest rumours on INS Vishal is that nuclear power has been dropped, overall tonnage has been reduced from 65K to a number somewhere in the 50s, EMALS is iffy and Naval HQ may go in for a steam catapult instead. And these are not small alterations by any stretch of the imagination. Where is the long term plan?
What m_saini said above in his post is 1,000% true ---> This is like a high school girl shopping for a prom dress in a mall. The long term plan & vision that you are referring to is akin to a man with a long beard, where the wind goes...that is where the beard flows. And delaying the plan is only detrimental to the navy's future force planning. There is a better option, which has been mentioned before and I will do again in my reply to your quote below.
ManuJ wrote:If the long-term plan of Indian Navy is to be a carrier-led naval force, then it makes sense to incrementally increase the carriers' capabilities and force projection. Any carrier being planned today will become operational in 10-15 years time and will serve for at least 30 years, a timeframe of 2035-2065. You have to project India's strategic and operational needs during that timeframe when planning for something like a carrier.
Manu, you hit the nail on the head - incremental.
Take a look at all 10 Nimitz Class aircraft carriers in the US Navy and this is consistent across all 10 vessels;
1) Nuclear Power
2) CATOBAR with Steam Catapult
3) 100,000 tons (the latter vessels are incrementally higher)
However there are incremental updates (or sub-classes) between these 10 boats. The USS George HW Bush (the tenth vessel) is more capable than the USS Nimitz (the first vessel). Each succeeding vessel builds on the experience of the previous one. Or as you yourself put it ---> "...it makes sense to incrementally increase the carriers' capabilities and force projection."
Take a look at the first four Gerald R Ford Class aircraft carriers and this will be consistent across all 4 vessels;
1) CATOBAR with EMALS
2) Nuclear Power
3) 100,000 tons
Now examine the Indian aircraft carrier program. Look at INS Vikrant and this stands out:
1) STOBAR with Ski Jump
2) COGAG propulsion (gas turbine)
3) 40,000 tons
Look at INS Vishal and this is the wish list:
1) CATOBAR with EMALS
2) Nuclear Power
3) 65,000 tons
This is not an incremental update. This is a serious upgrade, with a significantly higher cost. Why do you think the MoD did not sanction this? And a Navy Admiral reportedly had the gall to say that to deny it just for financial crunch, is misplaced understanding? A vessel of this magnitude is going to cost around $8 - $10 billion. And yes, India does not have to pay for that cost upfront because that cost is broken down over the length of construction. The Vikrant is expected to cost around $4+ billion and in 2019, $420 million was released for Phase III construction. But India will spend around close to a billion each year for a decade, if not more, to see INS Vishal become a reality.
Surely India can afford this if everything else was picture perfect in the Indian Armed Forces. But is it? No is the plain and simple answer. The Air Force has a laundry list of modernization programs with the MRFA contest - doomed to fail - right on top. The Army has a list too long to type. The Navy has her own list of acquisition and modernization programs. Who has the squadron shortage - Air Force or Navy and therefore which of these two services do you think the MoD will be more empathetic to?
The plain and simple truth of the matter is this ---> the navy did not consult the primary stakeholder (MoD) in this grandiose plan. The MoD controls the purse strings. The navy designed this vessel with little (if any) consultation from the MoD, went to town with it (i.e. the media) and then got torpedoed in the hallowed halls of the MoD. Today the Navy is now left with a plan that has even less of a chance of success, with a CDS facing a spiralling downward economy and with three services desperate for modernization.
What is the Navy's next option? Because a third aircraft carrier is a necessity. Perhaps take a cue from the USN and do an incremental update on a follow-on Vikrant Class vessel. So something like this;
1) STOBAR with Ski Jump
2) COGAG propulsion (gas turbine)
3) 50,000 tons or max 55,000 tons
4) Wider lifts to accommodate any naval fighter out there.
Lay that keel now and you will have an aircraft carrier ready to sail by 2031. The Indian Navy will have three aircraft carriers in a little over 10 years. And when the Indian economy hits overdrive and gets over the slump it is in now, lay the keel for the first Indian super carrier complete with all the bells and whistles. CATOBAR, EMALS, 65K (or even higher) tons, etc. Perhaps that can happen in the middle of this decade and she will be ready for service by the early 2040s. She could replace the Vikramaditya, which will likely be on her last legs by then.
Or continue with the same strategy now ---> insist on funds for everything, but the end reality will result in funds only for a few and definitely not for a third aircraft carrier. The ball clearly lies in the Navy's court.