Wuhan Coronavirus Resource Thread

sum · Post by **sum** » 03 May 2021 15:17

Pretty grim 3rd wave prediction by Ktaka COVID Task Force. Says children will be hit more:
Third Covid wave may strike Karnataka in October, hit young

Even as Karnataka grapples with the second wave of Covid-19, an analysis by the Technical Advisory Committee said the state is likely to face the third wave of infections in October

Nsmith · Post by **Nsmith** » 03 May 2021 15:38

sum wrote:24 Covid-19 patients dead after Chamarajanagar hospital runs out of oxygen

In a tragic turn of events, a total of 24 patients died at the district Covid Hospital in Chamarajanagar, 175 kilometres from Bengaluru on Sunday. According to the district administration, as many as 12 patients died due to lack of oxygen
Fleecebags
Some private ambulance drivers are charging up to Rs 80,000for ferrying a body to the open cremation ground outside the city; in other places, they are cutting queues. And there’s nobody to rein them in
Just tip of the iceberg since i have had relatives sit outside hospital/in ambulances pleading for oxygen and using every possible means to get even basic amenities, being fleeced by everyone without mercy, having stuff stolen when running around in the hospital for getting work done and this is in "IT capital", Bengaluru ( ruled by BJP and not evil non-BJP govts)

I can sense a distinct sense of change in tone among folks around me regarding the feeling of being let down since all of them have been personally affected this time around. I remember the same folks a few months back arguing with others about how it doesn't matter if we are not getting any due ( basic roads/water/electricity) as we are doing a greater good with our taxes.
But, same folks are now absolutely distraught that they are completely abandoned by govt after having paid into the system for so long for even basic medical help and relying on social media etc. to get help

Most of the folks are now just waiting out and looking for ways to get into other countries for work since the sense of gloom and hopelessness with the future in the country in now complete. Sad situation but thats the undercurrent im sensing ( and i cannot disagree since nothing to counter against).

All the gyaan about how one should look at bigger picture/only state govt is to blame etc is only from friends sitting safely in US/xyz and not having experienced the horror of actually interacting with the system for even 1 hour( despite all the good work being done by many of the volunteers and other frontline workers)

2024 is going to be a uphill task for Modi and co, even if the current mess wasnt really his fault and there was no lack of effort from his govt side

+ 1008

That is indeed the undercurrent among the middle-class folks across the board. Including those who have been long-time BJP/ modi supporters. As on date, almost 90% of the families have either lost a loved one or have near and dear ones who are currently on ventilator fighting for their lives. And people are angry at Modi (even though it might not be his fault) for landing the country in this situation. Loss of a loved one hurts - and I'm afraid the anger will burst out in the voting booths come the next GE.

Even my own mother, who has always voted lotus has declared that Modi has let her down - that she had expected better from him - and that she will vote anyone (probably NOTA) but lotus in the next elections. My SHQ is now begging Me to explore opportunities in London/ S'pore and get out out this country, seeing the state of affairs these last 30 days. We had initially planned on setting down in Mumbai, but almost everyone in my friend circle is seriously reconsidering their future goals.

While personally I'm conflicted, you cannot deny that the central government dropped the ball in Q1 of 2021 and the widespread misery, sense of despondency and frustration at the "system" will all get directed towards NaMo - simply because if you're eager to take credit for everything, you will also get the blame when you f*ck up.

Added later: Also head from my chaiwallah that we're heading for a national lockdown soon. The political leadership has been told in clear words that a complete lockdown is the only solution to arrest this wave and ensure our medical infrastructure doesn't not collapse under the weight of daily cases. A lot of doctors and nurses themselves are succumbing to the virus and things are at a breaking point in many cities. Probably a decision will be taken in the next 5-10 days.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 03 May 2021 16:19

This is the opportunity BIF have been hoping for and have gotten this thanks to the out of control panicked reaction from the population.

With the benefit of hindsight. The only option the centre had was to impose a total lockdown by 1st of April. But given the experience of the past one year. It made no sense to do so.

Why do I say so?

If mass gathering of people was causing a spread of covid. Then Bihar election was the perfect opportunity with multiple potential super spreader events.

Nothing happened. How do I know this?

I reached Buxar, Bihar the day the last round of election took place. Went on to spend 45 days in Buxar. In those 45 days covid was not even registered in Buxar, Dumraon
Or Bhojpur.

But this time it is all Modi's fault.

This is the perfect storm and the media strategy has been top notch.

I hope that Modi can recover in the next 1 year. Or we are in for very bad days form 2024.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 03 May 2021 18:21

SC missed the opportunity to order the lockdown. So the real culprit is the real center of power.

Same with dropping the ball with suo moto, PIL, etc. These routes were not utilized to stop mass gatherings, force wearing of masks, to postpone elections, to stop black marketing, create safe environment in MH, ....

The real buck stops at the judiciary.

Modi could have only brought them to the court and that's it. The speed of prosecution depends on the judiciary.

Lockdowns would not have worked. That political capital was spent already. This would have been forced lockdowns and that would have generated losses too.

Many ways to skin the cat. Modi would not have received the reprieve by using lockdowns or vaccinating. The game is on.

Is the nature only way to have mutated viruses? Can the virus mutation be encouraged? Can it be mutated in the lab?

chetonzz · Post by **chetonzz** » 03 May 2021 18:35

darshan wrote:
Is the nature only way to have mutated viruses? Can the virus mutation be encouraged? Can it be mutated in the lab?

taboo Q

this belongs to the realm of bioweapons... otherwise AFAIK never before a mutated virus can be used against its older deadly cousin as a cure

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 03 May 2021 18:37

This is the opportunity BIF have been hoping for and have gotten this thanks to the out of control panicked reaction from the population.

Correct. This is an outlier of an event. It’s like predicting a nuclear attack or a volcanic eruption. You can never be prepared for the scale of it.
The middle class never stops griping in India. Particularly the Hindu middle class. So what is new. Personal responsibility is terribly low and at the same time people want free markets and capitalism 1000 lane highways. Yet, they want the government to supply even tissue paper when they get a cold.
Even my family members have been affected.
This is a pandemic. What can you do?

The proliferation of media and garbage content has led to a complete tiktokification of the brain. That is why people have such odd and strange expectations of others because they are being defined by media. Many saw a much poorer India and even today see the experiences of the poor. Yet, there is a strong cognitive dissonance about expectations. This is a pandemic where all responsibility is shared which includes masks, getting your vaccines and keeping away from crowds. When such a spike happens chaos will happen because India is still a poor country and India still has poor medical infrastructure (and no that is not Modi’s fault as it will take time to fix). Population is huge and resources are scarce. Not only the expectations but the media rumor mill of the vaccines is something people fell too. That too given how we have all benefitted from vaccines in India. Where is the common sense?
They can go abroad and send remittances home.

The people of Bengal know that Mamata sucks as an administrator but to meet their ideological goals, they are willing to suck it up.
The BJP needs loyal voters like that. This is the reason, selling the 1000 lane carrot to the Indian middle class is useless. The hunger and expectations never end. The base itself is all wrong.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 03 May 2021 18:53

darshan wrote:Lockdowns would not have worked. That political capital was spent already. This would have been forced lockdowns and that would have generated losses too.

Yes, and there is no point declaring lockdown now. The curves in most states/cities are trending down, and where it is still going up, like BLR, they are already under local lockdown. BLR, though trending up, is sticking to the projection and is close to the peak.

https://twitter.com/agrawalmanindra/sta ... 6742884352

BOM:

BLR:

MAA:

pgbhat · Post by **pgbhat** » 03 May 2021 20:23

Tanaji wrote:SII is now saying that vaccine production will not increase until July. Earlier it was May, then june and now July.

I think there are problems with the ramp up and may be linked to his move to London.

India’s Covid vaccine shortage will continue for 2-3 months, says SII CEO Adar Poonawalla

He said the company had not increased capacity earlier due to lack of orders, highlighting that severe vaccine shortage would continue through July. “There were no orders, we did not think we needed to make more than 1 billion doses a year,” he told the London-based Financial Times in an interview.

The financial daily quoted him as saying the authorities did not expect a second Covid surge in January. “Everybody really felt India had started to turn the tide on the pandemic,” he said.

Govt Rubbishes Reports Claiming No New Vaccines Orders After March, Says Another 16 Crore Doses Ordered In April

“It is clarified that 100 per cent advance of Rs. 1732.50 cr (after TDS Rs. 1699.50 cr) was released to Serum Institute of India (SII) on 28.04.2021 for 11 crore doses of Covishield vaccine during May, June and July, and was received by them on 28.04.2021. As on date, against the last order of 10 crore doses for supplies of Covishield vaccine, 8.744 crore doses have been delivered till 03.05.2021,” a press statement by the Union ministry of health and family welfare said.

uddu · Post by **uddu** » 03 May 2021 20:36

I think the money must be asked to be returned and given to BB for Covaxin expansion.

kiranA · Post by **kiranA** » 03 May 2021 20:43

Nothing to do with Parsi or anything but I lost all respect for Adar Poonawallah when he mocked Bharat Biotech Covaxin as "pure water". It showed him as an arrogant twit who most likely has a racist contempt for Indian developed products. It is especially galling when you compare Adar with Dr.Krishna Ella. Adar has no education relevant in this area and born a billionnare with family connections going to British. Dr Ella is well respected in this field and left his career in america to specifically set up vaccine manufacturing in india when other indian companies were minting money making generic **** etc for 60 year old western men too frolic.

Morover Hyderabad where Covaxin is being produced has a storied history when it comes to Vaccine making. Shanta biotechnics set up from a lab in OU was a pioneer in this field . Sanofi of France paid 550 million Euros to get majority rights in this company way back in 2006. When the world respects the technology that comes from this city who is this arrogant playboy to mock the achievements and the scientists from here ?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 03 May 2021 20:56

I pointed out the second dose crowding out and the April/May critical period several weeks ago in detailed analyses on Twitter and SwarajyaMag articles.

People trying to make sweeping accusations using the benefit of present hindsight need to normalize their arguments against what every other nation is or has recently faced:
- scaling up production is hard . It takes money upfront and doesnt always smoothly ramp up. Look up Pfizer or Moderna news in Jan to Mar and you will see multiple disruptions in US and EU where supplies were far behind commitments. J&J faced horror delays due to contamination and mixing with AZ ingredients at the Baltimore plant, then more delays due to the clot issue.
- The political cost of vaccinations not being able to keep up daily 2-2.5 million rate is severe, but we have not faced that. Europe is far behind its desired vaccination goals, with vaccinations entirely stalling in multiple countries (not cities or local hospitals - whole countries) for days or even weeks.
- When you demand ‘why didn’t Govt invest in facilities last year itself’ remember that you are insulting others by refusing to go look for news online. Even news presented in easily readable form on Twitter. Because the reality is that SII spent hundreds of millions of its own cash. Govt spent hundreds of crores accross ICMR, Bharat Biotech and NIV to ensure they had a viable candidate, invested in production starting November before Covaxin phase 1, and those facilities are due to come online by May/June.
- it takes months to ramp up Covaxin because it needs bio safety level 3 facilities that take more time to build. This capacity is being ramped up from 1 to 6 (2x BB, Panacea, IIL , BIBCOL and Haffkine), coming online starting the next month, through the next 6-9 months.
- The term 'shortage' gets misused way too much. There are only 1.1 billion doses produced in the entire world so far. 330m of it in India. There are 16 billion doses desired. If you want to argue that demand exceeds supply based on raw numbers, ok fine you win for the next 5 years. Go away and stop moaning the same thing endlessly. The real shortage is a more nuanced situation. The government knows how many people it can get to come to vaccinations, based on 2 months' data. With the wave, all of a sudden everyone wants a vaccine. The wave is on track to peak this week (Prof Vidyasagar's model states May 4-8). When the oxygen panic dies down, so will the vaccine demand. The US is running out of people who will get a shot, and they're a long way from herd immunity threshold, never mind 100%. They're going to get hit by another way around summer holidays.

Yes the wave hit at the point where production was just ramping from 75m to 150+ but that does not make people experts based on flawed or misinformed hindsight.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 03 May 2021 21:24

There are too many mice and too few lions in the country today. To the extent that the mice have assembled today in force and shouting at the top of their lungs sky is falling. Lion should have stiched the sky to prevent it from falling.

They are so many that the voice of the lion is not reaching out to all the mice at the back of the crowd that sky is not falling. They don't hear it and then they start repeating that sky is falling. This murmur from the back reaches the front and the whole crowd starts afresh that sky is falling.

This is the best way I can explain the current situation in the country and the world.

pgbhat · Post by **pgbhat** » 03 May 2021 21:52

I really do think national lockdown now is not a bad idea. It is necessary. Carry it on for next couple of months at least. Continue to review the situation meanwhile and ramp up production of vaccines. We cannot afford more mutations of virus either and end up with vector based vaccines which would become infective by the time next wave arrives. Otherwise what may be comatose government by the end of wave 2, will be dead on arrival of wave 3.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 03 May 2021 21:56

arshyam wrote:
darshan wrote:Lockdowns would not have worked. That political capital was spent already. This would have been forced lockdowns and that would have generated losses too.
Yes, and there is no point declaring lockdown now. The curves in most states/cities are trending down, and where it is still going up, like BLR, they are already under local lockdown. BLR, though trending up, is sticking to the projection and is close to the peak.

https://twitter.com/agrawalmanindra/sta ... 6742884352
...

Good to see weekly run rate of new cases declining below 2%, but this thing is not over yet. National lockdown may help optics in the near-term, but GoI need to create a de-politicized protocol to institute a statewide, regional or subregional lockdowns on short notice. Sounds very theoretical, but it is absolutely needed. Seeing this play out differently in other countries, there will be a 3rd and 4th wave. Magnitude and timing is anyone's guess.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 03 May 2021 21:59

kiranA’s post made me look up what exactly Adar Poonwala told Vishnu Som:

https://youtu.be/UsD2kw4C1mo?t=2m28s
(At 2 minute 28 seconds)

KiranA’s claims:

Poonwala is a playboy, so he is bad

Good for him, he has more options for consensual fun, but it does not affect my struggle with covid unless he comes to my house without a mask and starts doing it on top of my fridge while I came down for a midnight burfi.

Mocked Bharat Biotech Covaxin as "pure water"

The video above does not show that. Four months back, he said other than the three (Pfizer , Modena and AZ), rest are also “safe like water” but efficacy is not yet confirmed by studies. He said he will wait to see the efficacy studies of Indian companies. He did not say “useless as water”. That was media later twisting his words. Later both the companies clarified they talked out that media misunderstanding.

Poonwala is not qualified to talk
Fact: his PRIVATELY owned company is a behemoth because of his focus in making it grow in a certain direction. He might not titre his own DNA into a test tube to make it to KiranA’a legend list, but that does not mean his achievements in the global pharma sector are any less. Reminds one of the Thunder Horse disaster in Gulf of Mexico. The CEO of shell was a geologist and that did go swimmingly well for Shell! They groped for months to sort out a seemingly straight foreward.

Conclusion: Making this “a rich Parsi vs me” or “state vs state” is BS that we don’t need at this hour of crisis. Allowing him to be threatened by classless politicians and making him jump to London is a national embarrassment. If he has done anything wrong, that need to be sorted out later. Not now. No more of this here please.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 03 May 2021 21:59

Suraj wrote:I pointed out the second dose crowding out and the April/May critical period several weeks ago in detailed analyses on Twitter and SwarajyaMag articles.

People trying to make sweeping accusations using the benefit of present hindsight need to normalize their arguments against what every other nation is or has recently faced:
- scaling up production is hard . It takes money upfront and does always smoothly ramp up. Look up Pfizer or Moderna news in Jan to Mar and you will see multiple disruptions in US and EU where supplies were far behind commitments. J&J faced horror delays due to contamination and mixing with AZ ingredients at the Baltimore plant, then more delays due to the clot issue.
- The political cost of vaccinations not being able to keep up daily 2-2.5 million rate is severe, but we have not faced that.
- when you demand ‘why didn’t Govt invest in facilities last year itself’ remember that you are insulting others by refusing to go look for news online. Even news presented in easily readable form on Twitter. Because the reality is that SII spent hundreds of millions of its own cash. Govt spent hundreds of crores accross ICMR, Bharat Biotech and NIV to ensure they had a viable candidate, invested in production starting November before Covaxin phase 1, and those facilities are due to come online by May/June.
- it takes months to ramp up Covaxin because it needs bio safety level 3 facilities that take more time to build. This capacity is being ramped up from 1 to 6 (2x BB, Panacea, IIL , BIBCOL and Haffkine).

Yes the wave hit at the point where production was just ramping from 75m to 150+ but that does not make people experts based on flawed or misinformed hindsight.

Suraj thank you for bringing some sanity in these difficult time. Emotions are running high as bad news is pouring in.

I have used your data from Swarajya to spread hope. Vaccine production is Ramping up and we will have 200 million a month by august/sep. there is hope on the horizon. We need to hunker down and socially distance as much as possible for the next three months.

PS: look at the cowin dashboard. the 1st and 2nd dose lines are converging. a ray of hope- all the vaccine hesitancy nonsense should be gone.

https://dashboard.cowin.gov.in/

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 03 May 2021 22:00

chanakyaa wrote:GoI need to create a de-politicized protocol to institute a statewide, regional or subregional lockdowns on short notice. Sounds very theoretical, but it is absolutely needed.

Good way of phrasing it. The Central government is delegating responsibility for lockdowns to state governments. However, if people think the Central government is doing a bad job, state governments are even less capable with regards to resources and expertise. Ultimately if the Central government is the authority of last resort with things like oxygen and ventilators, it should also prescribe criteria that state and local governments have to follow.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 03 May 2021 22:09

Atmavik wrote:I have used your data from Swarajya to spread hope. Vaccine production is Ramping up and we will have 200 million a month by august/sep. there is hope on the horizon. We need to hunker down and socially distance as much as possible for the next three months.

That number is a fair estimate for that timeframe.

People underestimate just how hard this is. No one - not even US and EU - have been spared supply chain disruptions. Look up news on Pfizer and EU between January and March - there were loud recriminations because Pfizer shut down their plant in Puurs, Belgium, to renovate and expand. Of course everyone and their dog demanded why Pfizer didn't do that months earlier.

Right afterwards, the Emergent Biosolutions plant in Baltimore (a $630 million Operation Warp Speed recipient) mixed up AZ and J&J vaccine ingredients, destroying 20 million doses, and then another 62 million doses were suspected of contamination. Then J&J completely halted due to clot risks.

SII and BB don't have the benefit of downtime. If Poonawalla said he wants to stop production for a week to retool and expand, he would be taken out and shot. He has to maintain 100% capacity utilization AND expand without hurting production. Same for Bharat Biotech folks. Anyone who's worked in supply chain mgmt would have a sense of just how hard this is.

Till end of March, SII+BB made 270 million doses. All US production combined to end March was ~220 million. Now they're ramping up, and we will ramp up significantly through May and particularly June. This isn't good politics, but this isn't a politics thread and here's the reality - it's better to be well informed and quietly wait and appreciate just how hard a task this has been, than sit and pass random diktats in various directions between repeatedly asserting hindsight based 20/20 vision.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 03 May 2021 22:18

hnair wrote:Poonwala is not qualified to talk
Fact: his PRIVATELY owned company is a behemoth because of his focus in making it grow in a certain direction. He might not titre his own DNA into a test tube to make it to KiranA’a legend list, but that does not mean his achievements in the global pharma sector are any less. Reminds one of the Thunder Horse disaster in Gulf of Mexico. The CEO of shell was a geologist and that did go swimmingly well for Shell! They groped for months to sort out a seemingly straight foreward.

People have no idea of SII's position in the vaccine world. They are the 800lb gorilla. The NIH did a study of their impact in 2019:
Highly affordable vaccines are critical for our continued efforts to reduce global childhood mortality
SII alone is responsible for $140 BILLION in healthcare cost savings due to its annual supply of vaccines to the developing world - over 90% of the total savings measured:

Here's what they did months ahead of any vaccine being approved:
The World's Largest Vaccine Maker Took A Multimillion Dollar Pandemic Gamble

People run around like headless chicken arguing "Why weren't orders made earlier ?" SII had plenty of stock it could use to fulfil March and April orders . 100m were ordered in March and delivered over March/April. EU ordered in autumn 2020 and found itself delayed by several months in February, with only 40% of contracted doses able to be delivered to EU in Q1.

Anger and stress are understandable. It's also true that there's a bunch of garbage ideas floating around with no basis in data or fact.

pgbhat · Post by **pgbhat** » 03 May 2021 22:29

Probably the worst time to shit on any vaccine maker for any grievances imagined or real.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 03 May 2021 22:41

Adar Poonawala has no technical qualification & competence? Steve Jobs, anyone?

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 03 May 2021 22:42

Deleted

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 03 May 2021 22:43

That'll be enough. There's no SII vs BB argument, or anything to compare their leaders.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 03 May 2021 23:07

China deletes post mocking COVID-19 tragedy unfolding in India: report

A social media post by the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission faced serious backlash for appearing to mock the COVID-19 crisis in India, a report said.

Bloomberg reported that the post—which was later deleted—showed a recent rocket launch in China next to what appeared to be workers at a mass cremation in India. The report said that the post ran on the commission’s official Weibo account and read, "China lighting a fire versus India lighting a fire."
:
:
:

Manas · Post by **Manas** » 03 May 2021 23:08

Suraj wrote:
- The term 'shortage' gets misused way too much. There are only 1.1 billion doses produced in the entire world so far. 330m of it in India. There are 16 billion doses desired. If you want to argue that demand exceeds supply based on raw numbers, ok fine you win for the next 5 years. Go away and stop moaning the same thing endlessly. The real shortage is a more nuanced situation. The government knows how many people it can get to come to vaccinations, based on 2 months' data. With the wave, all of a sudden everyone wants a vaccine. The wave is on track to peak this week (Prof Vidyasagar's model states May 4-8). When the oxygen panic dies down, so will the vaccine demand. The US is running out of people who will get a shot, and they're a long way from herd immunity threshold, never mind 100%. They're going to get hit by another way around summer holidays.

Thanks Suraj. This quoted portion of your post needs to be part of the core education and messaging campaign. It is disappointing and infuriating to see experts, politicians on TV hyper ventilating about "vaccine supply shortfall", oxygen supply short fall etc without using basic common sense to look at the big picture to conclude if what GOI/India has accomplished in terms of vaccines is reasonable, avg, above/below average. On the vaccine front I believe what India has accomplished is above average over the last few months. Back in Feb/March most eligible 60+ people didnt care to take the vaccines. They concluded the virus is gone and they dont need it. Now that the situation is dire and eligibility has expanded there is a massive rush right when the "off the shelf stock" has been used up and now we seem to be operating with "just in time supplies". In a 3-4 weeks things should stabilize. About the 60M+ doses that India exported that Modi is now taking flak for - 60+ countries were able to administer at least 1 dose to their HCW and FLW so they have protection to deal with local surges. India had that obligation morally, diplomatically, strategically to export those doses (above and beyond the GAVI/COVAX contractual obligations for SII).

Same for Oxygen - the medical Oxygen seems to have shot 5-6x per day compared to the pre 2nd wave days. There is very little any govt can do to deal with such a sudden spike. Airlifting containers through IAF and Oxygen trains are certainly good steps to scale up fast to get supplies where they are needed the most.

The one and only step i would have taken back (as GOI) during the lull days post 1st wave is to really have the Army Medical Corps (AMC) prepare to with with massive "surge" capacity with field hospitals. I do understand the armed forces until recently had their hands full in Ladakh and the Northeast border. While there is some talk of ITBP and DRDO field hospitals in Delhi and Ahmedabad - for a massive national level crisis like this getting the Army Medical Corps (AMC) and a few paramilitary, NDRF, army battalions surged to the top 20-30 worst affected districts & cities to set up make shift hospital capacity is the most efficient way to get capacity online ASAP. Obviously, state govt and district collectors and local authorities need to play a supporting role. While the civilian admin will stumble and bumble its way through it will take weeks and not the 3-4 days that the military can set up such field facilities. This could save 1000's of lives over the next few weeks. I think ICU and hospital bed demand will peak in the 2nd half of May (10 -14 days after the peak infection rates). I hope the GOI asks the military to go in full fledged on field hospitals - the GOI can also benefit from the "shock and awe" optics with Army equipment moving, Airforce planes, helicopters landing in various civilian airports ferrying equipment + also the citizens will regain some sense of confidence and composure seeing this "war time surge".

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 03 May 2021 23:17

We can educate ourselves. But at this time it is no longer possible to have a reasonable conversation with any member of general public.

I have a feeling that at this time fear and panicked reaction from the members of the public is causing more stress then should be expected. The numbers are bad but we were seeing nearly 3 lakh cases daily till the end of September last year. Yet at that time no clamour for this remdisivir or shortage of oxygen in hospital.

This time by the time we started hitting 1.5 lakhs cases daily we started seeing a clamour for both oxygen and remdisivir.

I am asking the question, what changed this time that such panicked reaction from the public?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 03 May 2021 23:27

The September wave didn't accumulate 3 lakh cases a day. It did not even touch 100k confirmed cases a day. This data is very easy to look up on covid19india.org. Please look at data before concluding.

The biggest problem with Covid waves as shown time and again, is that they over-stress the system. Like progressive taxes, the mortality rates spike when the system exceeds saturation level .

Essentially no one's been able to predict timing and intensity of waves effectively. The covid modeling team have had to revise their model to capture the detail effectively, including a revision in late March due to parameter drift as the wave got stronger.

Also, false positives cost. If experts predict a wave that didn't happen - as happened multiple times - the public stop being receptive to repeated lockdown demands. Historically, second waves tend to be more destructive due to broadbased public behavior that the worst is behind them.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 03 May 2021 23:32

By the way, any idea whether GoI has any concrete information on the Covishield and Covaxine supply? I don't expect the states to come up with genuine numbers. But can GoI with some proof show that their supply chain till state level has delivered nnn of dosages?

Reason I ask is this. In a matter of minutes two friends of mine at Bengaluru put a WhatsApp note saying that their husbands were not given the 2nd dosage in this week (when it was due). This is a very close knit group, so they are not lying. So looks like there is a shortage of supply for each critical item against COVID. Vaccines, oxygen & hospital beds etc. This is when till around 1.5 months back every one (state govts and GoI) was giving a more rosy picture of steady supply of vaccines.

What changed all of a sudden? Is there widespread pilferage of the vaccines at state level? Or was SII painting a rosy picture and keeping mum on their other supply commitments.

Pratyush wrote:I am asking the question, what changed this time that such panicked reaction from the public?

My two cents. General vigil at the people level was low. People had assumed that the worst part was over. Social activities were pretty much at 99.9% level. When COVID wave started the lock downs came in a more long drawn manner with people also getting good information on why all this was needed. But when lock down got lifted it was party time again.

From my own experience. The COVID's version in the 2nd wave is directly hitting the lungs of people. Stuff like loss of smell & taste etc as seen in the wave 1, people may even ignore it. But the infection caused in the lungs it is more unbearable. So people naturally rush to hospital and due to breathing trouble seek oxygen cylinders etc.

Jay · Post by **Jay** » 03 May 2021 23:34

Deleted

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 03 May 2021 23:36

Second dose crowding out effect. If you give N doses in March, then 6 weeks later you need N second doses AND additional first doses. I explained this weeks ago. Between March and April, Covishield and Covaxin don't ramp up enough to keep both first and second dose rates going at the same pace, unless production increases to 2N in that period. It gets there around end May or early June, but the rapid progress in vaccination in March simply shows up as 2nd dose demand now.

At least with Covishield, a delay doesn't cause much harm - UK studies recommended 2nd dose spacing as far apart as 12 weeks:
The Lancet: Single-dose Oxford–AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine followed by a 12-week booster

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 04 May 2021 00:13

That there is a shortage is a given. If one looks at cowin website for Mumbai, there are no sites that have vaccine availability for 45+ all the way till June. Mumbai stopped vaccinating for 45+ Since last 4 days.

My close relatives are stuck as they can’t get their second dose. They are at 9 weeks.

Zynda · Post by **Zynda** » 04 May 2021 00:20

^^Not a medical advise, but I think Covishield 2nd dose duration can be stretched up to 12 weeks...For Covaxin, its 4-6 weeks. My parents were told there are no Covishield stocks in BLR last week (for their 2nd dose) but they just kept on calling up vaccination centers on a daily basis, in a 1-3 Kms radius & found one diagnostic center which had AZ stocks and got theirs on last Friday.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 04 May 2021 00:36

Prof Shamika Ravi has graphs showing the difference between wave 1 and 2:
https://twitter.com/ShamikaRavi/status/ ... 48576?s=20

Some people argue for lockdown. Given the time duration involvws, it's clear that firefighting was the only available option. One can lockdown to bring the peak sooner - something we are doing now. But 'go back to March and impose lockdown ?'

Predicting the timing and intensity of a wave is essentially beyond anyone's ability now. Many predicted waves before that never happened. Or underpredicted. It's a developing science. A massive lockdown is incredibly costly. We talk things like 'social distancing', 'lockdown' etc like anyone can do it for a while. Unlike the middle class, for a large number of people, a few days off sends them back into poverty. This was hard to manage last time and the Govt is clear they don't want another imposed national lockdown this time.

darshan · Post by **darshan** » 04 May 2021 00:58

With everything going on from the wave to politics, it's a miracle that there are not India wide shortages. All resources are beyond stress limits and things are still functional.

There's certainly something about this land.

One winter storm had brought down US' mighty Texas and killed many.

Recovery rate further improves, marginal decline in daily cases in Gujarat
https://www.deshgujarat.com/2021/05/03/ ... n-gujarat/
...
The State has completed first dose vaccination of 99.41 lakh persons and second dose vaccination of 26.31 lakh persons against covid19. Today 27,272 persons in 18-44 age group were vaccinated.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 04 May 2021 01:11

1.65 million vaccinated by 8pm, total 159 million so far: https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetai ... ID=1715791
Only half the orders go to center now, so states have to catch up with daily vaccination to make up the typical 2.5-3 million a day total.

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 04 May 2021 03:55

VinodTK wrote:China deletes post mocking COVID-19 tragedy unfolding in India: report

Bloomberg reported that the post—which was later deleted—showed a recent rocket launch in China next to what appeared to be workers at a mass cremation in India. The report said that the post ran on the commission’s official Weibo account and read, "China lighting a fire versus India lighting a fire."

Indians with a bat

Chinese with a bat

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 04 May 2021 03:59

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56974831

SII is investing £240m in UK to set up vaccine R&D/Manufacturing.

£533m of new investment from India into the UK, which is expected to create about 6,000 jobs.

Downing Street said the new partnership will "pave the way" for a future UK-India Free Trade Agreement.

"The economic links between our countries make our people stronger and safer," said Mr Johnson.

The deal, announced ahead of a virtual meeting with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi, includes a £240m investment by the Serum Institute of India, which will support clinical trials, research and possibly the manufacturing of vaccines.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 04 May 2021 04:33

Why the F are they on about free trade agreements? India seems to be lukewarm (-273.15C) to the idea.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 04 May 2021 04:37

What India’s Viral Misery Is Telling Us

I previously congratulated India’s media for not participating in the “confirmed cases” mythology so prevalent in the West. Even today, the U.S. press cites India’s official count of 380,000 new cases a day and notes the Trump-reproving fact that this means India is approaching the U.S. total. Uh huh. With thousands of Indians dying for want of hospital oxygen, with its crematoria unable to keep up, a reader not wishing to reside in la-la land might want to know that realistic modeling indicates India’s true daily new infection rate exceeds 13 million.]

This is the only place I have seen such a "realistic modeling" claim of 13M per day infection rate.

Does this make sense? Did anyone do a back-of-the-envelope estimate based on oxygen demand or crematoria statistics? Or (as i suspect) is this guy's "realistic modeling" actually some substance pulled out of his backside, just out of an ulterior motive to keep US media from making Trump look bad in comparison with India's "only" 3.8L per day rate?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 04 May 2021 04:58

It's an opinion piece on WSJ. The writer has a degree in journalism. The piece involved an American political argument. Why do we care about it from a data perspective ? Even the quoted confirmed data doesn't line up with data from multiple Indian sources.

The article is full of bad science. Earlier an 'elderly man was mildly inconvenienced' while in 'one of the densest cities'. Now it isn't the same because 'the virus takes time', presumably it missed the bus from Tollygunge ? Quote epidemiologists and cite information on variant transmission and there can be a proper discussion. Some reporter making sweeping medical conclusions from anecdotes, no thanks. This is the kind of nonsense our own high-priority journalists peddle too.

If the pandemic has shown anything, it's the profusion of charlatans peddling nonsense and bigotry under the guise of 'science'. Any attempt to discuss Indian data is shot down by 'no Indian data is X times more' and the 'narrative' is built to suit that. Please don't bring that garbage here.

There's actually data analyzing New Delhi's cremation data in detail, e.g. this piece in IE. That's actually useful. It gives a sense of delay in reporting, an idea of data that might be actually missing, and some reality. On the other hand there's Barkha spending days in front of a shamshan and saying 'countiess deaths'. I can only wonder why she didn't even count. That's really something basic a reporter could do, but nope.