Third Covid wave may strike Karnataka in October, hit young
Even as Karnataka grapples with the second wave of Covid-19, an analysis by the Technical Advisory Committee said the state is likely to face the third wave of infections in October
Even as Karnataka grapples with the second wave of Covid-19, an analysis by the Technical Advisory Committee said the state is likely to face the third wave of infections in October
+ 1008sum wrote:24 Covid-19 patients dead after Chamarajanagar hospital runs out of oxygen
FleecebagsIn a tragic turn of events, a total of 24 patients died at the district Covid Hospital in Chamarajanagar, 175 kilometres from Bengaluru on Sunday. According to the district administration, as many as 12 patients died due to lack of oxygenJust tip of the iceberg since i have had relatives sit outside hospital/in ambulances pleading for oxygen and using every possible means to get even basic amenities, being fleeced by everyone without mercy, having stuff stolen when running around in the hospital for getting work done and this is in "IT capital", Bengaluru ( ruled by BJP and not evil non-BJP govts)Some private ambulance drivers are charging up to Rs 80,000for ferrying a body to the open cremation ground outside the city; in other places, they are cutting queues. And there’s nobody to rein them in
I can sense a distinct sense of change in tone among folks around me regarding the feeling of being let down since all of them have been personally affected this time around. I remember the same folks a few months back arguing with others about how it doesn't matter if we are not getting any due ( basic roads/water/electricity) as we are doing a greater good with our taxes.
But, same folks are now absolutely distraught that they are completely abandoned by govt after having paid into the system for so long for even basic medical help and relying on social media etc. to get help
Most of the folks are now just waiting out and looking for ways to get into other countries for work since the sense of gloom and hopelessness with the future in the country in now complete. Sad situation but thats the undercurrent im sensing ( and i cannot disagree since nothing to counter against).
All the gyaan about how one should look at bigger picture/only state govt is to blame etc is only from friends sitting safely in US/xyz and not having experienced the horror of actually interacting with the system for even 1 hour( despite all the good work being done by many of the volunteers and other frontline workers)
2024 is going to be a uphill task for Modi and co, even if the current mess wasnt really his fault and there was no lack of effort from his govt side
taboo Qdarshan wrote:
Is the nature only way to have mutated viruses? Can the virus mutation be encouraged? Can it be mutated in the lab?
Correct. This is an outlier of an event. It’s like predicting a nuclear attack or a volcanic eruption. You can never be prepared for the scale of it.This is the opportunity BIF have been hoping for and have gotten this thanks to the out of control panicked reaction from the population.
Yes, and there is no point declaring lockdown now. The curves in most states/cities are trending down, and where it is still going up, like BLR, they are already under local lockdown. BLR, though trending up, is sticking to the projection and is close to the peak.darshan wrote:Lockdowns would not have worked. That political capital was spent already. This would have been forced lockdowns and that would have generated losses too.
India’s Covid vaccine shortage will continue for 2-3 months, says SII CEO Adar PoonawallaTanaji wrote:SII is now saying that vaccine production will not increase until July. Earlier it was May, then june and now July.
I think there are problems with the ramp up and may be linked to his move to London.
Govt Rubbishes Reports Claiming No New Vaccines Orders After March, Says Another 16 Crore Doses Ordered In AprilHe said the company had not increased capacity earlier due to lack of orders, highlighting that severe vaccine shortage would continue through July. “There were no orders, we did not think we needed to make more than 1 billion doses a year,” he told the London-based Financial Times in an interview.
The financial daily quoted him as saying the authorities did not expect a second Covid surge in January. “Everybody really felt India had started to turn the tide on the pandemic,” he said.
“It is clarified that 100 per cent advance of Rs. 1732.50 cr (after TDS Rs. 1699.50 cr) was released to Serum Institute of India (SII) on 28.04.2021 for 11 crore doses of Covishield vaccine during May, June and July, and was received by them on 28.04.2021. As on date, against the last order of 10 crore doses for supplies of Covishield vaccine, 8.744 crore doses have been delivered till 03.05.2021,” a press statement by the Union ministry of health and family welfare said.
Good to see weekly run rate of new cases declining below 2%, but this thing is not over yet. National lockdown may help optics in the near-term, but GoI need to create a de-politicized protocol to institute a statewide, regional or subregional lockdowns on short notice. Sounds very theoretical, but it is absolutely needed. Seeing this play out differently in other countries, there will be a 3rd and 4th wave. Magnitude and timing is anyone's guess.arshyam wrote:Yes, and there is no point declaring lockdown now. The curves in most states/cities are trending down, and where it is still going up, like BLR, they are already under local lockdown. BLR, though trending up, is sticking to the projection and is close to the peak.darshan wrote:Lockdowns would not have worked. That political capital was spent already. This would have been forced lockdowns and that would have generated losses too.
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Suraj wrote:I pointed out the second dose crowding out and the April/May critical period several weeks ago in detailed analyses on Twitter and SwarajyaMag articles.
People trying to make sweeping accusations using the benefit of present hindsight need to normalize their arguments against what every other nation is or has recently faced:
- scaling up production is hard . It takes money upfront and does always smoothly ramp up. Look up Pfizer or Moderna news in Jan to Mar and you will see multiple disruptions in US and EU where supplies were far behind commitments. J&J faced horror delays due to contamination and mixing with AZ ingredients at the Baltimore plant, then more delays due to the clot issue.
- The political cost of vaccinations not being able to keep up daily 2-2.5 million rate is severe, but we have not faced that.
- when you demand ‘why didn’t Govt invest in facilities last year itself’ remember that you are insulting others by refusing to go look for news online. Even news presented in easily readable form on Twitter. Because the reality is that SII spent hundreds of millions of its own cash. Govt spent hundreds of crores accross ICMR, Bharat Biotech and NIV to ensure they had a viable candidate, invested in production starting November before Covaxin phase 1, and those facilities are due to come online by May/June.
- it takes months to ramp up Covaxin because it needs bio safety level 3 facilities that take more time to build. This capacity is being ramped up from 1 to 6 (2x BB, Panacea, IIL , BIBCOL and Haffkine).
Yes the wave hit at the point where production was just ramping from 75m to 150+ but that does not make people experts based on flawed or misinformed hindsight.
Good way of phrasing it. The Central government is delegating responsibility for lockdowns to state governments. However, if people think the Central government is doing a bad job, state governments are even less capable with regards to resources and expertise. Ultimately if the Central government is the authority of last resort with things like oxygen and ventilators, it should also prescribe criteria that state and local governments have to follow.chanakyaa wrote:GoI need to create a de-politicized protocol to institute a statewide, regional or subregional lockdowns on short notice. Sounds very theoretical, but it is absolutely needed.
That number is a fair estimate for that timeframe.Atmavik wrote:I have used your data from Swarajya to spread hope. Vaccine production is Ramping up and we will have 200 million a month by august/sep. there is hope on the horizon. We need to hunker down and socially distance as much as possible for the next three months.
People have no idea of SII's position in the vaccine world. They are the 800lb gorilla. The NIH did a study of their impact in 2019:hnair wrote:Poonwala is not qualified to talk
Fact: his PRIVATELY owned company is a behemoth because of his focus in making it grow in a certain direction. He might not titre his own DNA into a test tube to make it to KiranA’a legend list, but that does not mean his achievements in the global pharma sector are any less. Reminds one of the Thunder Horse disaster in Gulf of Mexico. The CEO of shell was a geologist and that did go swimmingly well for Shell! They groped for months to sort out a seemingly straight foreward.
A social media post by the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission faced serious backlash for appearing to mock the COVID-19 crisis in India, a report said.
Bloomberg reported that the post—which was later deleted—showed a recent rocket launch in China next to what appeared to be workers at a mass cremation in India. The report said that the post ran on the commission’s official Weibo account and read, "China lighting a fire versus India lighting a fire."
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Thanks Suraj. This quoted portion of your post needs to be part of the core education and messaging campaign. It is disappointing and infuriating to see experts, politicians on TV hyper ventilating about "vaccine supply shortfall", oxygen supply short fall etc without using basic common sense to look at the big picture to conclude if what GOI/India has accomplished in terms of vaccines is reasonable, avg, above/below average. On the vaccine front I believe what India has accomplished is above average over the last few months. Back in Feb/March most eligible 60+ people didnt care to take the vaccines. They concluded the virus is gone and they dont need it. Now that the situation is dire and eligibility has expanded there is a massive rush right when the "off the shelf stock" has been used up and now we seem to be operating with "just in time supplies". In a 3-4 weeks things should stabilize. About the 60M+ doses that India exported that Modi is now taking flak for - 60+ countries were able to administer at least 1 dose to their HCW and FLW so they have protection to deal with local surges. India had that obligation morally, diplomatically, strategically to export those doses (above and beyond the GAVI/COVAX contractual obligations for SII).Suraj wrote:
- The term 'shortage' gets misused way too much. There are only 1.1 billion doses produced in the entire world so far. 330m of it in India. There are 16 billion doses desired. If you want to argue that demand exceeds supply based on raw numbers, ok fine you win for the next 5 years. Go away and stop moaning the same thing endlessly. The real shortage is a more nuanced situation. The government knows how many people it can get to come to vaccinations, based on 2 months' data. With the wave, all of a sudden everyone wants a vaccine. The wave is on track to peak this week (Prof Vidyasagar's model states May 4-8). When the oxygen panic dies down, so will the vaccine demand. The US is running out of people who will get a shot, and they're a long way from herd immunity threshold, never mind 100%. They're going to get hit by another way around summer holidays.
My two cents. General vigil at the people level was low. People had assumed that the worst part was over. Social activities were pretty much at 99.9% level. When COVID wave started the lock downs came in a more long drawn manner with people also getting good information on why all this was needed. But when lock down got lifted it was party time again.Pratyush wrote:I am asking the question, what changed this time that such panicked reaction from the public?
Recovery rate further improves, marginal decline in daily cases in Gujarat
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The State has completed first dose vaccination of 99.41 lakh persons and second dose vaccination of 26.31 lakh persons against covid19. Today 27,272 persons in 18-44 age group were vaccinated.
VinodTK wrote:China deletes post mocking COVID-19 tragedy unfolding in India: report
Bloomberg reported that the post—which was later deleted—showed a recent rocket launch in China next to what appeared to be workers at a mass cremation in India. The report said that the post ran on the commission’s official Weibo account and read, "China lighting a fire versus India lighting a fire."
£533m of new investment from India into the UK, which is expected to create about 6,000 jobs.
Downing Street said the new partnership will "pave the way" for a future UK-India Free Trade Agreement.
"The economic links between our countries make our people stronger and safer," said Mr Johnson.
The deal, announced ahead of a virtual meeting with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi, includes a £240m investment by the Serum Institute of India, which will support clinical trials, research and possibly the manufacturing of vaccines.
This is the only place I have seen such a "realistic modeling" claim of 13M per day infection rate.I previously congratulated India’s media for not participating in the “confirmed cases” mythology so prevalent in the West. Even today, the U.S. press cites India’s official count of 380,000 new cases a day and notes the Trump-reproving fact that this means India is approaching the U.S. total. Uh huh. With thousands of Indians dying for want of hospital oxygen, with its crematoria unable to keep up, a reader not wishing to reside in la-la land might want to know that realistic modeling indicates India’s true daily new infection rate exceeds 13 million.]