Afghanistan News & Discussion - April 2016

[V_Raman]

we have china in the mix to make this happen. they are already mining different things in AFG. china-pak-afg is a money making machine due to the mineral wealth of AFG.

usa can still beat the daylights out of pakistan. but what is the inflection point there? when/how can china make pakistan resistant to american machinations?

Can pak become another north korea like state - which seems to be a template to be resistant to usa or AFG is another template

what are india's bargaining chips in this new equation?

i still think indian boots in AFG a decade ago or during vajpayee time might have been better strategy. but that time is gone now.

[fanne]

Someone in BRF said - The sheep fears the wolf his whole life but is eaten by the shepherd. A forever collapsing TSP (but never really collapsing) may have finally caught the disease that will end it. In the beginning the symptoms may look rosy, but you know the story of all people/animals in history who have bitten more than they can chew.

[Rudradev]

V Raman ji,

What has China been able to make happen with CPEC, or for that matter, the Gwadar port?

The Pakis (ruling classes at least) do not produce anything of value, and never have. They are rent-seekers, period. They firmly believe that their geostrategic/geoeconomic location is all they need to sit athwart a long artery of the Chinese BRI, and collect hafta on the goods traveling along it. It never occurred to them to sell their own goods via this artery, or even do very much to make the artery safe for transit by others. Do the least, beg/extort the most, is their maxim.

That is why CPEC has failed to turn a profit and Gwadar remains largely idle. It is also why the Chinese have decided to court the Iranians... who may be untrustworthy, but at least are not deadbeats.

What goes for the Paki ruling class goes 400X for the people in charge of Afghanistan now. Highwaymen, brigands, and extortionists to a "T". They will charge money to have somebody else do the hard work of extracting minerals from the ground and processing them, and they will charge money to anybody else who wants to use their territory to transport these minerals, and they will charge still more money for the minerals themselves. That is all they will do.

The Chinese (by now) surely know this about the Pakis, and they will soon find out that it's true of the Taliban. Even if the Chinese remain satisfied that mining Afghanistan's mineral wealth and shipping it by CPEC is worth doing 100% of the work plus handing out money to all the rent-seekers, they will soon find either Pakis or Talibs or both demanding a larger share of the profits just for sitting there. They will also find that you cannot make a deal with the Taliban as a whole, because some warlords will always remain convinced that they are being robbed of their "fair" share even as other warlords are suspected of having made special backroom deals. And of course, trust between the Pakis and all Talibs has been a tenuous beast at the best of times.

Honestly there is so much opportunity to create havoc here that India would just never have had, if our boots were on the ground in Afghanistan.

What we need to focus on is to establish absolutely airtight internal security and ironclad political stability. The greatest danger we face, as always, comes from within. Once we have our own house completely in order, we are much better positioned to go fishing in these waters.

[V_Raman]

i agree that we have to establish absolute internal security/stability.

we are marching towards the prediction by bipin chandra pal in his book - Nationality and Empire; a running study of some current Indian
problems.

Our real menace will come not from Europe but from Asia not from Pan-Europeanism but from Pan-Islamism and Pan-Mongolianism

book can be downloaded from https://hdl.handle.net/2027/mdp.39015027742991

[Rudradev]

Another article in National Interest by friend of India, Michael Rubin.

As always please click on the link so that more traffic is driven to the article... it will benefit Rubin if we do so. And please share widely.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/af ... est-191875

[Cyrano]

Agree 100% Rudradev ji. India needs to be clever and play these rent seekers and profiteers against each other.

But equally importantly we need to actively snuff out the emboldened jihadis and snip their narrative at home.

This will be the new Two Front War for the next few years.

[yogi]

India can make Afghanistan a very expensive place for the Chinis. After the British, Russians, Amreeka, it’s their turn anyway.

[Ambar]

If TTP rises again then the Pakis will be in deep deep trouble. Last time around they played the good taliban vs bad taliban game and kept giving the yanks coordinates of TTP hideouts so the drones could take them out. This is how they got rid of the entire Mehsud warlords and crippled the TTP which at one time was less than 100 kms from Islamabad. Who will the pakis call this time around ? The ruskies, chinese, qataris or even turkey are not dumb enough to trust pakis and help them in anyways. The real game begins after countries fully evacuate their citizens .

[V_Raman]

i dont think india has the assets to play these games in afg. it dosent matter at this point. if pak has to come under taliban rule - then it is fine by them as that will make them immune to usa machinations and underwritten by china - this is the big long term impact for india.

at this point even indian takeover of PoK or khyber-pakhtunkwa to get access to afg is moot.

totally agree with rudradev ji's point here. i think india realized this and did all the moves in j/k/ladakh to tighten internal security. that is our only viable/sustainable long-term option in addition to building a robust domestic mil industry.

very heartening to see GoI openly issue the call for saving afghan hindu/sikh - now the opposition cannot say anything about nrc/caa implementation. IM will be onboard as well - i dont think they want the taliban variety unleashed among them.

[Cain Marko]

Honestly there is so much opportunity to create havoc here that India would just never have had, if our boots were on the ground in Afghanistan.

What we need to focus on is to establish absolutely airtight internal security and ironclad political stability. The greatest danger we face, as always, comes from within. Once we have our own house completely in order, we are much better positioned to go fishing in these waters.

Rdevji, I'm not so sure. Sounds more like a hope than a strategy. The Chinese have been making deals with taliban since the 90s. They will get what they need.. And they have enough to pay the required rent. Rent boys aren't that stupid so as to kill off the golden goose. They're masters at taking just enough.
In all likelihood it will be 90s redux and we can expect Indian borders to heat up.

There is no such thing as "airtight internal situation", not in a democracy like India - not for a long time in coming and not while internal vote bank politics are alive. The look inside perspective is great for self improvement and growth but when it comes to foreign policy it seems far better to take the fight away from home and cause problems elsewhere.

But I do hope you are right and I'm wrong.

[V_Raman]

I think india has till end of this decade to firm up the military posture and another 5 years to make the border really tight.

given the pace at which this happened - deans 2022 will be a scary scenario. we will know from the moves being done by GoI over next year on the urgency given to this threat.

[Cain Marko]

I think india has till end of this decade to firm up the military posture and another 5 years to make the border really tight.

given the pace at which this happened - deans 2022 will be a scary scenario. we will know from the moves being done by GoI over next year on the urgency given to this threat.

The Taliban debacle is happening in front of our eyes today, in our own backyard. We have had 20 years to firm up the military posture. What will another 10 years do? I have been hearing this "chankian" thinking on BRF for the last 20 years. Kuch nahi hua sir - only tarikh pey tarikh!

[bharathp]

The Taliban debacle is happening in front of our eyes today, in our own backyard. We have had 20 years to firm up the military posture. What will another 10 years do? I have been hearing this "chankian" thinking on BRF for the last 20 years. Kuch nahi hua sir - only tarikh pey tarikh!

not just 20 years - for probably next 100 years our entire view should be make ourselves strong and keep our internal security tight. I am not 100% sure what people are expecting India to do for the Taliban/Afg debacle.
I mean, what could India do that even USA could not?
USA has wrapped up the Afg fight to get its finances in order to take on china/Russia
Ind has to get its house in order to take on Pak/Cheen

for th taliban/Afg even Pak - enough amounts "non- military target" by coordinated UAVs would be enough.
if they claim "non state actors", well you can claim you only hit the non-state actors. that was the template laid out already.

[Cain Marko]

not just 20 years - for probably next 100 years our entire view should be make ourselves strong and keep our internal security tight. I am not 100% sure what people are expecting India to do for the Taliban/Afg debacle.
I mean, what could India do that even USA could not?
USA has wrapped up the Afg fight to get its finances in order to take on china/Russia
Ind has to get its house in order to take on Pak/Cheen

for th taliban/Afg even Pak - enough amounts "non- military target" by coordinated UAVs would be enough.
if they claim "non state actors", well you can claim you only hit the non-state actors. that was the template laid out already.

You fight your enemies away from your home. Not in it. That's what India could and should do instead of being pawam and "strategic", and suffer TSP for another 100 years as you so prophetically put it. If you don't have the cojones to be the boss in your own backyard, forget "super power" (or even regional power) dreams. No one is asking India to "fix" afghanistan but playing a role in Afg and causing a constant pain in pakistan's backside will provide relief in Kashmir. And vice versa. USA is saath samndar paar and can still maintain a HUGE force in Afg for 20 years. India is 200 miles away and can't? WTF do we have a million strong Army, huge navy and AF for? Show? Here was the opportunity to impose an NFZ over PoK and take back what is rightfully India's. But we have chosen to shut the door and pretend that everything is OK.

Hell, even if we didn't do anything of that nature and continue to remain pawam, at least make some noises in that direction which will cause some sleepless nights in the right places. Who knows what responses and opportnities present themselves when you send out "feelers". But India's utter silence on even contemplating this publicly is unbecoming of a civilization that once stretched from Afg. to Burma.

In any case, if this thing goes sideways, which it can easily do, there will be pain in Kashmir and possibly other regions of India. We'll see how well the current strategy works out.

Btw, If you are waiting for "India to get its house in order" might as well wait forever! Things will never be perfect - but powerful countries don't let that stop them from stepping out.

[sanjayc]

I think india has till end of this decade to firm up the military posture and another 5 years to make the border really tight.

given the pace at which this happened - deans 2022 will be a scary scenario. we will know from the moves being done by GoI over next year on the urgency given to this threat.

The Taliban debacle is happening in front of our eyes today, in our own backyard. We have had 20 years to firm up the military posture. What will another 10 years do? I have been hearing this "chankian" thinking on BRF for the last 20 years. Kuch nahi hua sir - only tarikh pey tarikh!

The biggest drawback for India is an inability to design and build its own weapons and equipment of war. The generals actively thwart development of this capability to facilitate imports through never-ending trials. And Govt. thwarts it by treating private companies as untouchables. (All this is a result of the greed of generals and petty jealousies of bureaucrats who see private entrepreneurs as competitors to their status in society.) This is the biggest self-inflicted wound that doesn't allow us to firm up our military posture and be taken as serious power players internationally. If you can build your own weapons, you can tilt the balance in any part of the world by suppling these to any country. That is when you begun to be seen with respect by other nations, not when you are always out with some import tender for even basic weapons like infantry rifle.

[Cyrano]

Rona dhona fest has started ! Arre bhailog, why are you wailing like Pakistan tv panelists? Current Indian govt is capable of dealing with the situation better than any govt we had in the past. They will get re-elected in 2024.

Lets focus on getting our enemies to do rona dhona.

[rsingh]

One strategy is to offer Visa to Canada (they have land ) to anybody who brings one Taliban body to a certain place in Afganistan. Talibans will disappear like Bakistani common sense. They would kill each other to get out of the hell hole.

[vera_k]

Live updates

Taliban co-founder back in Afghanistan, group says all 'pardoned'

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar is striving to be the new coming of Jesus or Gandhi. The Americans and Afghans folded via non-violent means

[jamwal]

https://twitter.com/JaidevJamwal/status ... 1570906112
Afghan soldier crying and refusing to surrender. I think I hear "Punjab" in this video.
If it is indeed "Punjab", then it is amazing how everyone knows of Pakistani involvement with #Taliban and still ignores it.

[chetak]

US freezes Talban access to billions of dollars in #Afghanistan's national reserves


US freezes billions in Afghanistan assets as it blocks Taliban from seizing country’s wealth

The Biden administration froze Afghan government reserves held in US bank accounts on Sunday, blocking the Taliban from accessing billions of dollars.

Two people familiar with the matter spoke to The Washington Post about the decision, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss government policy not yet made public.

The decision was made by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and officials in Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, the people said. The State Department and White House were also involved in the decision.

An administration official said in a statement: “Any Central Bank assets the Afghan government have in the United States will not be made available to the Taliban.”

The Biden administration is also likely to face hard choices over how to manage existing sanctions on the Taliban. This may make it difficult to deliver international humanitarian assistance to the Afghan people.

The previous Afghan regime held $9.4bn in gross reserves at the end of April, the International Monetary Fund reported.

Most of those reserves were held outside of Afghanistan, a source told the AFP.

The US Government has previously seized the reserves of countries whose governments it doesn’t recognise, such as Venezuela.

[chetak]

Wing Commander

[pgbhat]

So was wondering with this invasion of Afghanistan by Pakis is the Durand Line dispute settled or more is yet to come?

[chetak]

(twitter) via whatsapp


If you ever feel useless, just remember the United States of America took four Presidents, thousands of lives, trillions of dollars and twenty years to replace Taliban with Taliban.

[ArjunPandit]

One strategy is to offer Visa to Canada (they have land ) to anybody who brings one Taliban body to a certain place in Afganistan. Talibans will disappear like Bakistani common sense. They would kill each other to get out of the hell hole.

pakistanis will kill their own and land en masse there

[chetak]

When faced with the 1$!@mic1$t$ on the streets, the western liberal order ran away under the cover of the night.

These are the western liberals who would preach to India on how to deal with Islamists.

No wonder they all preached that India should simply surrender!

[chetak]

Indian liberandus and wokes:Mission: Rehabilitate taliban





added later

Behead innocent people, stone dissenters to death, ravage a populace, rape young girls and boys, gangrape women and use them as sex slave after killing their families.

Just do a press conference later. All is forgiven.

[rsingh]

US freezes Talban access to billions of dollars in #Afghanistan's national reserves


US freezes billions in Afghanistan assets as it blocks Taliban from seizing country’s wealth

The Biden administration froze Afghan government reserves held in US bank accounts on Sunday, blocking the Taliban from accessing billions of dollars.

Two people familiar with the matter spoke to The Washington Post about the decision, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss government policy not yet made public.

The decision was made by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and officials in Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, the people said. The State Department and White House were also involved in the decision.

An administration official said in a statement: “Any Central Bank assets the Afghan government have in the United States will not be made available to the Taliban.”

The Biden administration is also likely to face hard choices over how to manage existing sanctions on the Taliban. This may make it difficult to deliver international humanitarian assistance to the Afghan people.

The previous Afghan regime held $9.4bn in gross reserves at the end of April, the International Monetary Fund reported.

Most of those reserves were held outside of Afghanistan, a source told the AFP.

The US Government has previously seized the reserves of countries whose governments it doesn’t recognise, such as Venezuela.

That is more than Islamic Itemic republic of Bakistan . How come ? 9 billions?

[chetak]

US freezes Talban access to billions of dollars in #Afghanistan's national reserves


US freezes billions in Afghanistan assets as it blocks Taliban from seizing country’s wealth

That is more than Islamic Itemic republic of Bakistan . How come ? 9 billions?

this is also bhikhari money, no different from what the pakis get

[rsingh]

Dutch do this often. There was this case in African camp ( UN refugee camp) under Dutch protection. Flying Dutchman ran away at first sight of rebels. Case was brought to court and it was proved.

[IndraD]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 421067.cms
Indian embassy staff were escorted by Taliban to airport who kept the crowd on the roads at bay with gunfire

[srin]

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article ... f-lithium/

Sorry for the late reply. This thread moves too fast.

Somehow I'm skeptical of the feasibility of Lithium mining. I know the Khans can be dumb, but if Afghanistan had so much Lithium, would they have ever left ?

[chetak]

Afghan Sikh and Hindu community in Kabul have sent out an appeal to be rescued from the Gurudwara Karte Parvan where they have sought shelter.

viaAdityaRajKaul · Aug 17

Appeal is to "United Sikh Organisation and Sikhs of USA and Canada" to take them to America and Canada.

Govt of India has more than once offered to bring them to India.

We are in contact with them.

But we cannot force them against their will. (Aditya should have mentioned facts).

viaKanchan Gupta@KanchanGupta·23h

[chetak]

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article ... f-lithium/

Sorry for the late reply. This thread moves too fast.

Somehow I'm skeptical of the feasibility of Lithium mining. I know the Khans can be dumb, but if Afghanistan had so much Lithium, would they have ever left ?

sirji,

the good and pure talibs who are also the (extra pious) 6 times a day namazis, also crap only diamonds (FL or Flawless grade) and pee pure liquid gold. So it is written somewhere in their extensive desert documentation for sure and some beardo mullah has only just now deciphered the true meaning of these hitherto misinterpreted verses and revealed all to the faithfools.

rumors will abound. Just wait and see how it all pans out.

It is highly unlikely that the savvy/greedy amerikis would have left any part of afghan territory unexplored and unsearched for anything precious and of value.

The amerikis were there for 20 years and found nothing is enough of an indication that there may actually be nothing to find.

The ameriki MIC as well as the big conglomerates, over the years, have had a free run of the afghan territory, courtesy uncle sam.

OTOH, the cheeni and the pakis may attempt to lure "investors" by conning them and showing fake mineral assay reports as proof of massive deposits

[Ambar]

Afghan Sikh and Hindu community in Kabul have sent out an appeal to be rescued from the Gurudwara Karte Parvan where they have sought shelter.

viaAdityaRajKaul · Aug 17

Appeal is to "United Sikh Organisation and Sikhs of USA and Canada" to take them to America and Canada.

Govt of India has more than once offered to bring them to India.

We are in contact with them.

But we cannot force them against their will. (Aditya should have mentioned facts).

viaKanchan Gupta@KanchanGupta·23h

GoI tried its darnest to get them on a plane but they refused. Now i see a video of few sikhs asking for asylum in the US or Canada ! Clearly they have no interest in safety but are rather looking at this as an opportunity to move to N.America. I think India should just concentrate on getting out the remaining Hindus and be done with it.

[Ambar]

Indian embassy staff had to be escorted to the airport by the taliban.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/14278960 ... _&ref_url=

Looks like MEA had to work the Iran, Qatar connections to escort our staff to the airport and then the US to help land our C17s. We should have had better on ground intelligence to foresee the rapid collapse of Afghanistan and shouldn't have found ourselves in this situation in the first place.

[IndraD]

as per our own Hukum ji

Amidst a global spotlight , the Taliban could not been caught on the wrong side of ethical conduct.They delayed the escorting until a green signal was given by Rawalpindi.Our High Commissioner in Islamabad burnt midnight oil to get the message through.That part isn't mentioned.

https://twitter.com/hukum2082/status/14 ... 31520?s=20

[Deans]

While there are any number of people telling us why the fall of Afghanistan was inevitable (though they didn't say so in the previous 20 years), there are a couple of points relevant to our security forces.

Building an army along ethnic lines (as IA does for infantry) would have made a lot more sense. An all Uzbek, Tadjik or Hazara regiment would have fought harder and had far better unit cohesion and morale. In the last few weeks soldiers from minority groups feared being shot in their sleep by the Pashtun soldiers sharing the tent.
The CRPF has done a wonderful job with the UN in Liberia to not only demonstrate holding elections with non violent policing, but build a national police force. The US has never had a national police force (nor do their police do counter insurgency) and was incapable of building one with consultants.
Soviet era equipment (whose spares are freely available and semi literate guys can operate) are better than western equipment which needs foreign contractors to maintain.

[Aditya_V]

The US decided to weaken the ANA by ignoring Warlords opposed to the Taliban. Yes Divisions along Ethnic lines would have been better. But if a future situation arises for any international powers to go into Afganistan, given Paki behavior. You need to liberate Baluchistan as well. Otherwise it is waste of time and money.

It seems the Panjishr Valley has not yet fallen to the Taliban and Ahmed Shah Masoud's son is leading the Anti-Taliban alliance. Taliban have also destroyed Shite leader statue, So looks like it seems the reverse, the knives are out and Pakis, Pakiban will no longer have the protection of the US- things could reverse much faster than expected for the Pakis. And hopefully Paki Pasthuns can be infiltrated and the fight can be taken to the Pakjabi heartland.

[shyamd]

x posting

Assessment of Security Situation post Kabul takeover


TSPA priority
- TSPA support Taleban priority firstly will be to consolidate, secure and prevent any forces that can launch a counter coup. Apparently Kabul is not completely secure and the Taleban are still continuing operations.
- Negotiations are taking place between Taleban and forces that are capable of resisting thus the general amnesty for former Afghan govt officials (to complete the coup which means the Taleban/TSPA are still worried about resistance forces)
- The other issues is that TSPA know that there are a lot of groups that are not under direct C2 of TSPA - these will need to be dealt with as well eventually

- Consensus for major powers is that as long as Taleban is truly 'inclusive' then pressure will be taken off Taleban - I believe funds of the Afghan govt have been frozen or about to be frozen
- ISI backed troops such as LeT and JeM are playing a significant role. They have two roles - keep control of Taleban gangs going lose/off the chain and prevent forces that can launch a counter coup.

GOI moves
- First priority is securing all Indian nationals, diplomats and other interests of the Sikh/Hindu community. Majority of the work was completed in 48 hours from the green light given by GOI leaders.
- The next will be to re-establish connections with key players (some of whom are in Delhi) and others in central asian states.
- GOI have a choice. Either support those ready to launch a counter coup and make the point that Taleban hold is weak/vulnerable or move to a long term strategy which is to be recon/surveillance/intel focused.

With only around 9% of indian population vaccinated GOI's primary focus is to get this fixed.

Expectation is that we'll be back to stadium murders soon.

Apparently GOI - Taleban meeting was reported in arab press (the one that MEA denied that took place). Taleban said they welcome Indian investments in infra & education as these are for the benefit of all afghans. They also said the Taliban pledged to remain neutral in the India-Pakistan conflict, especially with regard to Kashmir, and affirmed that it has its own future policy on Pakistan.

They have also pledged not to interfere in Uyghur issues in china.

[chetak]