Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

[williams]

So it is a bit confusing. Can't a regime change be done in a much less expensive means?

Putin's team probably planned this right when they saw the Afghan debacle. It looks like Ruskies want to cut down the size of the Ukrainian military capability, traumatize the population, show the pusillanimity of the Biden administration (and the NATO stooges), and finally do a regime change. Putin seals his legacy, and Ruskies establishes leadership in eastern Europe. All of that is achievable objectives.

I never thought the US admin would be this naive to expect Ruskies to budge on the threat of additional sanctions. They have survived the world wars, the cold war, and its aftermath. They can manage much better with such huge FEX reserves and a better-organized economy.

CNN-type propaganda can work for domestic politics, but it will not work on the world stage, especially when there are no hard assets in play on the ground. India has no role to play except making some noise and staying neutral. Don't underestimate the Ruskies. They will play the game with cold calculation.

[chanakyaa]

This is from RT, for what it’s worth,

Ukraine ready to discuss neutrality, Zelensky says
https://www.rt.com/russia/550546-zelens ... eutrality/

[Dilbu]

This is not just about regime change. The stated objective is 'demilitarisation' of Ukraine. Putin wants to ensure UKI is left with no credible fighting force capable of threatening Russian buffer zones at least in the immediate future. Regime change might be one part of this equation but degrading military capabilities by destroying stuff is the real agenda. The exit route after achieving objectives might involve installing a favourable regime in Kyiev but this looks pretty difficult to achieve as of now.

[Cain Marko]

This is not just about regime change. The stated objective is 'demilitarisation' of Ukraine. Putin wants to ensure UKI is left with no credible fighting force capable of threatening Russian buffer zones at least in the immediate future. Regime change might be one part of this equation but degrading military capabilities by destroying stuff is the real agenda. The exit route after achieving objectives might involve installing a favourable regime in Kyiev but this looks pretty difficult to achieve as of now.

1. Add to that a full Russia controlled buffer zone in the eastern regions. 2. Maybe everything East of the dneiper. And 3. guarantee that Ukraine doesn't join NATO. #2 he might negotiate on and use as bargaining chip.

[Manish_Sharma]

^ Maybe that's why Russians aren't bombing civilians mindlessly like NATO did in Serbia.

@daeroplate_v2:

today we get quick updates, but NATO bombed Serbia for 70 days in pre twitter era. collateral damage was brushed under rug. towards the end struck electric and water infra with convenient argument of being 'dual use' .... so far Rus has avoided such trickery & media management.

one corner of chinese embassy was blasted by a 'mistake', this led to peking organizing busloads of Univ students to heckle and pelt eggs on the murican consulate...
big powers do whatever they want. rules are only for weak or meek.

ukraine electric grid seems to be still up...trains/metro running. grid is linked in some way to belarus and russia so looks like no attempt to tamper with it yet.

nobody knew or cared how many died in serbian hospitals when grids were hit and diesel gensets ran out...
those who control the narrative write their own version of history.

https://twitter.com/daeroplate_v2/statu ... oRasw&s=19

[Deans]

So it is a bit confusing. Can't a regime change be done in a much less expensive means?

Russia's actions are similar to Georgia 2008. 4 day war, after which Georgia realised that Russia's pre-war demands were actually very reasonable.
They lost part of their country (South Ossetia) and suffered enough military and economic damage to the rest of it that voters would never again
choose someone who is Anti Russia. Regime change in Ukraine will probably happen through elections, after the war.

[Cain Marko]

Just wondering... What if Russia decided to leave Kiev alone with the zelensky govt. Intact? BUT.
1. Cordoned of all major cities.
2. Imposed continued NFZ
3. controlled all exit entry into these cities.
4. Made it impossible for these large civilian populations by cutting off electric, gas, and food supplies occasionally?
5. Other than urban centers everything meaningful in Ukraine including it's connection to the outside world is controlled by Russia. Sort of a medieval seige ion the 21st century.
Maybe the populations of these cities will hand over zelenskys head on a plate, no?

[mody]

For those wondering about what India would do if SL or Bangadesh try to cozy up too tightly with China, how about the following scenario:

If a commie govt in Nepal were to sign a friendship agreement with China, with a mutual military assistance clause and agrees to a host a Chinese military base in Nepal, how do you think India would respond? India and Nepal have long civilizational relationship or as 'Kadi-Nindaji' says, Roti Aur Beti ka rishta hai!!

Most likely, in the run up to this kind of likely scenario, India would impose a total blockade along with no remittance from Nepalese population working India. If a pact on the above lines were to be signed, India would most likely engineer a coup, if the Nepalese army would still be pro-India.
This would be followed by a formal request from the Nepalese army to India to help maintain law and order and India would send in its troops.
This would be followed by either an election conducted by Indian EC, with Indian paramilitary/army providing the security in the country, with carefully vetted politicians only allowed to contest. All anti-India commie or hyper nationalist types would have been locked up after the coup.
This would ensure a regime change with a regime friendly to India firmly in the saddle.

Another option would be to hold a referendum about merging Nepal with India and do away with any possibility of a hostile govt ever coming to power in Nepal. The vote would be conducted by Indian EC. A careful assessment would be carried out before hand to make sure that the referendum would go India's way.

If a coup wold not be a possibility, in the extreme case, India would try to do something like Op Gibraltar, followed by a peacekeeping invasion by Indian forces.

Now, some would say that Nepal being a free sovereign country with an elected government has the full right to enter into any kind treaty with any other country in the world and all this talk of India's security concerns or India's sphere of influence etc. is all non-sense. Now replace India and Nepal in the above scenario with US and Mexico or US and Canada or US and Cuba (oh..that one actually did happen) and it all makes sense.

[Atulya P]

Can anybody tell me how can Putin get a victory here, he has now lost friends in Europe, put the Russian economy under bus. And if this conflict is long drawn loss of reputation . It does not look for Russia.

Few months ago there was a post on brf about USA having decided that there's no space for two superpowers in the Northern hemisphere. They have made up mind to destroy Russia and are going about it decisively. Team Putin sees this. They have nothing to lose.

If those friends in Europe continue to have faith in US/NATO even after Afg and Ukr episodes, it will be at their own expense. The German Naval chief called out the reality in the leaked video, if they are adamantly blocking their own nose nobody can force them to smell the coffee. Reality is, woke unkils do not have sole rights over Nat Sec concerns, a clever person knows to respect adversary's red lines for their own benefit.

[Rudradev]

Indian TV news coverage (English language) of the war is interesting.

Times Now has taken on a pronounced pro-Ukraine tilt.

Republic TV seems more even-handed.

I don't watch sickular channels, but it would be interesting to know how rNDTV, CNNIBN, India Today TV etc are covering this.

[SRajesh]

A noob pooch
What was the primary aim of Russian adventure!!
Ukraine is on its own, regardless of the NATO/SWIFT/Sanctions
Is this more to do with buffer zone???
I don't believe this was the primary aim
What if this is the second wave of attack on Pax Americana and $$$
With oil/gas prices soaring, inflation on the rise (yes winter is coming to an end but industries will be badly hurt), the expected recovery from COVID stalled!!!
Is this a combined Panda/Bear campaign to tear the Eagles wings so it wont soar again!!
And the Western Europe is just collateral damage
Now no major announcements from Middle Eastern Oil/Gas bags except for Turdogan. And if Dollar falls then Turd will be history methinks
That leaves Paxtan, why did they time this visit??? Is this the way of ISI of saying they are not Panda's exclusively but can 'service the Bear' as well??
What will be the impact on QUAD from all this if Eagle is grounded!!

[mody]

WION has been airing news about the crisis since past 1 month, with very pronounced anti-Russia stand. Generally WION and Timesnow are considered pro-BJP and pro India, so a anti-Russia stand on both seems to show which way the government is tilting. Even DD kind of has a slightly anti-Russia stand, prior to the events of this week. However, now the coverage from DD seems to be a little more balanced. However, today morning there was a supposed military expert on the channel giving an extremely pro-Ukraine view. Republic, another pro-BJP channel also has been a bit more balanced.

[Baikul]

A lot of individual videos, accounts and stories are emerging in the usual fog of war scenario. As a ‘war tragic’ I’ve been following this campaign almost 24/7. I know everyone has their sources but I thought I’d try to create a simple summary (emphasis on simple) of Day 1 (or 1.5 who knows) of this war for members.

Have written this entirely on the go on my mobile so apologies for- as they used to say- errors of omission and commission

There were two parts to the first 24/36 hours:

The initial air campaign

Initial attacks from short/medium/long range standoff weapons (cruise, ballistic missiles) plus medium and heavy bombers on Ukrainian military assets (storage dumps, radar facilities, bases etc). Between 100-200 (depending on what source you trust) missiles were launched.

These were the strategies objectives behind the air campaign:

1. Use of overwhelming force to demoralise and destroy Ukrainian army’s will to fight
2. Destroy all anti-air defences and airbases, eliminating electronic warfare equipment to gain total air superiority
3. Deny and degrade UA airforce and army strike capability

For claims and counterclaims on the initial air assault I’m using this article:

https://fortune.com/2022/02/24/ukraine- ... expansion/

For the TLDR crowd here a quote

In an unequal battle—Russia spends more than 10 times as much on defense—Ukraine said it had shot down Russian aircraft and destroyed tanks and was holding firm along a long eastern front. Russia’s Defense Ministry said it had destroyed 74 military facilities, including 11 air fields, 3 command posts, a naval base and 18 radar stations for anti-aircraft batteries.

The ground campaign
The air campaign was Likely followed by four primary axes of attack:
1. From the North via Belarus to Chernobyl and Kyiv. Possible strategic objective to take the capital city Kyiv and remove the current political leadership.
2. From the South and the Crimea poll region. Possible strategic objective is to expand across the Dnieper, cut off access to large parts of the Black Sea, and link up with the Eastern axis to form a continuous line
3. From the East out of the Donetsk/ Luhansk area. These were the Russian controlled disputed territories and were likely natural lunch pads into Ukraine
4. From the North East to Kharkiv. It’s is being debated whether this is a feint to keep the Ukrainian forces occupied , or whether there are other serious strategic objectives such as taking over the major cities.

Analysing the ground attack:
At the outset I’ll say I found this a good link I’m link to discuss the initial Russian assault plan:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... a-attacked

Possible Overall strategic objectives of the ground assault plan:
1. Decapitating strikes on major cities from the North and North East (Kyiv is largest, Kharkiv second largest) to replace political leadership and end war early
2. From the south - target Kherson, which is a vital port linking the Black Sea and Dnieper River. Threaten Odessa port which ships a large portion of the world’s wheat. Also link up with the assault from the East.
3. From the East: as I stated before it would be a natural launch pad given that Donetsk and Lohansk were already extensions into Ukrainian controlled territory.

It’s too early to talk (in a neutral manner) about the results of the air war or the ground campaign. For those who want an hour by hour or even minute by minute update SEPARATE from the usual ‘classic’ news sources I’d recommendr:/Ukrainianconflict, r:/Combatfootage, and liveuamap. Im sure there are plenty of twitter sources so wont link those:

I’d said earlier that it is too early to talk reliably about results, but given how much of war I wanted to put down my initial conclusions. All of this is speculation form this point on, so mods please delete if inappropriate:

1. All of the news suggests that the Russians are desperate for this to be a blitzkrieg type of campaign. They cannot afford for this war to extend.
2. In the first few hours it seemed they had shut UA down.
3. However it increasingly seems they are getting seriously bogged down in the North (Kyiv) and North East (Suma)
4. The push from the South (Crimea) seems to be developing but again there are reports of increased resistance.
5. There are some reports that Russia had basically committed its conscripts and the Belarus army in the first phase as cannon fodder and to ensure UA wastage. And that we will now see the hardcore Russian troops in action. We shall see.

Overall, my personal opinion is that Putin is in seriously trouble in terms of a decisive early victory.

[Rudradev]

That's my assessment too, Baikul ji.

Remember, the time factor is critical for Putin's war aims to succeed. Quick decapitation & replacement of the Zelenskyy regime with relatively little civilian death, injury, property loss & inconvenience... that would have offered the best chance for an installed pro-Moscow regime to enjoy the most popular support (or at least, the minimum public opposition).

The longer this takes, the more civilians suffer, the more any pro-Putin regime will be hated & opposed even if it is successfully installed.

Bad blood against Russia among mango Ukrainians will have increased exponentially, leaving a wide open field for destabilization & 5th-gen warfare by the Western allies.

Which is exactly what NATO & US want... to make Ukraine a bleeding, festering abcess in Russia's side.

[Rudradev]

Republic TV now covering an apartment complex in Kiev that was hit by a missile. Charred & blasted homes, reports of civilian casualties, people picking through the wreckage to save what may be left of their belongings.

Ukraine is completely dominating the information war space. The longer this goes on, the worse for Russia.

[srin]

Republic TV now covering an apartment complex in Kiev that was hit by a missile. Charred & blasted homes, reports of civilian casualties, people picking through the wreckage to save what may be left of their belongings.

Ukraine is completely dominating the information war space. The longer this goes on, the worse for Russia.

Why ? Putin doesn't need to be elected by Twitter. The sanctions that can be imposed have already been imposed. So what will Russia lose if they take a week to win instead of say, 2 days ?

[Baikul]

That's my assessment too, Baikul ji.

Remember, the time factor is critical for Putin's war aims to succeed. Quick decapitation & replacement of the Zelenskyy regime with relatively little civilian death, injury, property loss & inconvenience... that would have offered the best chance for an installed pro-Moscow regime to enjoy the most popular support (or at least, the minimum public opposition).

The longer this takes, the more civilians suffer, the more any pro-Putin regime will be hated & opposed even if it is successfully installed.

Bad blood against Russia among mango Ukrainians will have increased exponentially, leaving a wide open field for destabilization & 5th-gen warfare by the Western allies.

Which is exactly what NATO & US want... to make Ukraine a bleeding, festering abcess in Russia's side.

Rudradev ji my particular interest is war strategy, so it’s serendipitous how your geopolitical analysis merges exactly with my military strategy pov.

In fact IF this war looks like it’s ending early in favour of Russia, someone should start tracking Ukraines’s Western borders to see how (not if) if the West is supplying more advanced weaponry to Ukraine principals. Like the Stingers in the 80s messed up the USSR, I believe we are going to see some potent new weapons in Ukraine if that happens (and even Javelins are 80s tech) . Putin needs a political solution asap Republic TV now covering an apartment complex in Kiev that was hit by a missile.

Republic TV now covering an apartment complex in Kiev that was hit by a missile.

Am not sure watching TV here, but there were reports pay night on of an apartment block hit by a plane/ drone crash. Is that a a new one? Because if not, I’m seeing that Indian channels are basically using video footage that’s out much earlier

[Baikul]

Republic TV now covering an apartment complex in Kiev that was hit by a missile. Charred & blasted homes, reports of civilian casualties, people picking through the wreckage to save what may be left of their belongings.

Ukraine is completely dominating the information war space. The longer this goes on, the worse for Russia.

Why ? Putin doesn't need to be elected by Twitter. The sanctions that can be imposed have already been imposed. So what will Russia lose if they take a week to win instead of say, 2 days ?

Because the choice isn’t a week or two days. It’s a week or a month. Or worse.

And because ‘winning’ has to be comprehensive. Which in itself is going to be a challenge.

It doesn’t mean Russia can’t do it. It just means we shouldn’t underestimate the difficulties.

[Rudradev]

Why ? Putin doesn't need to be elected by Twitter. The sanctions that can be imposed have already been imposed. So what will Russia lose if they take a week to win instead of say, 2 days ?

Do recognize why the information war space is important. It's not just about Twitter.

There have been protests against the war even *in Russia*. Unlike Indians & Pakis, there was never any widespread cultural background of hatred or animosity between mango Russians & mango Ukrainians in general, and the Russian aam junta does not want to see their own govt's actions create one.

But guess who will benefit if such hatred becomes widespread & entrenched? The very people Putin is fighting this war to defeat... US and its allies.

In Ukraine itself, these kinds of images endlessly replayed will ensure that any pro-Putin govt that takes power in Kiev will suffer a prolonged & bloody insurgency.

In Western countries they will increase public support for whatever anti-Russia measures are taken: sanctions are likely to drive inflation & higher energy prices, and there's no appetite for direct military efforts to help Ukraine as of now... but the more material that's available to paint Putin as a monster, the more the public will be accepting of measures to punish or destroy him. They will endure longer durations of sanctions and possibly accept even more than that.

Time is of the essence. 2 days is worse than 1 day. A week is worse than 2 days. There may not be a "set point" at which failure becomes guaranteed for Moscow, but those are the types of dynamics involved.

[Tamang]

As per reports, Russian forces have entered Kiev, fighting is on. It might be over soon in Kiev at-least, Ukrainian leadership might have already fled the capital or will be forced to do so soon.

There was another report/video of a Ukrainian BM (some claimed it was a drone strike) Millerovo Air Base in Russia.

[Ambar]

WION has been airing news about the crisis since past 1 month, with very pronounced anti-Russia stand. Generally WION and Timesnow are considered pro-BJP and pro India, so a anti-Russia stand on both seems to show which way the government is tilting. Even DD kind of has a slightly anti-Russia stand, prior to the events of this week. However, now the coverage from DD seems to be a little more balanced. However, today morning there was a supposed military expert on the channel giving an extremely pro-Ukraine view. Republic, another pro-BJP channel also has been a bit more balanced.

WION , Timesnow, Zee etc are independent news media channels that take a contrarian view to get hits, they are neither pro-BJP nor pro-India. They see their competitors blatantly partisan, anti-national and anti-government, so these channels take a opposing view. So no, their reporting has nothing to do with GoI's standing on this war.

The other thing to remember is that at the end of the day all these are Indian mainstream media news channels, which means they are pretty much at the rock bottom when it comes to morals, ideology, sophistication, understanding of realpolitik etc. Just this morning i saw a TV anchor on TV9 dress himself up in military camos (which looked like leftovers of LTTE's camos from the 90s) holding a plastic run while screaming incessantly about "warrllddd vaaaar threee" ! Him and his producer somehow thought it was necessary that he dress up like an absolute clown because he is reporting on a war he has no understanding of. Sometimes i find paki news channels more tolerable than the gutter-class reporting our media does.

[syam]

Time is of the essence. 2 days is worse than 1 day. A week is worse than 2 days. There may not be a "set point" at which failure becomes guaranteed for Moscow, but those are the types of dynamics involved.

No way anyone can seize a capital city in 1 day. It's not as simple as deploying application on cloud. (miss singha ji )

4-5 days are still good time frame. Unless the west does something big today, Russia will continue to have free run in this campaign.

[Hari Nair]

It does appear that the Russki Armoured thrust from Belarus, through Kiev Region is actually at the outskirts (about 50 km) from Kiev.
That is one heck of a lightning strike campaign - almost 200 km in a single day!
If that momentum can be maintained and the Russkis are smart enough not to enter the urban areas, instead rely on special ops troops, then its perhaps time Volodymyr Zelenskyy starts checking out his exit options.

Here is the update from Associated press :

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russia pressed its invasion of Ukraine to the outskirts of the capital Friday after unleashing airstrikes on cities and military bases and sending in troops and tanks from three sides in an attack that could rewrite the global post-Cold War security order.

Explosions sounded before dawn in Kyiv ... The nature of the explosions was not immediately clear, but the blasts came amid signs that the capital and largest Ukrainian city was increasingly threatened following a day of fighting that left more than 100 Ukrainians dead.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the government had information that “subversive groups” were encroaching on the city, and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Kyiv “could well be under siege" ...

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told lawmakers on a phone call Thursday evening that Russian mechanized forces that entered from Belarus were about 20 miles from Kyiv, according to a person familiar with the call...

Russian missiles bombarded cities and military bases in the first day of the attack, and Ukraine officials said they had lost control of the decommissioned Chernobyl nuclear power plant, scene of the world’s worst nuclear disaster...

...The dead included border guards on the Zmiinyi Island in the Odesa region, which was taken over by Russians.

...The invasion began early Thursday with a series of missile strikes, many on key government and military installations, quickly followed by a three-pronged ground assault. Ukrainian and U.S. officials said Russian forces were attacking from the east toward Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city; from the southern region of Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014; and from Belarus to the north.

...Hours after the invasion began, Russian forces seized control of the now-unused Chernobyl plant and its surrounding exclusion zone after a fierce battle, presidential adviser Myhailo Podolyak told The Associated Press.

...The Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency said it was told by Ukraine of the takeover, adding that there had been “no casualties or destruction at the industrial site.”

...Russia and Ukraine made competing claims about damage they had inflicted. Russia’s Defense Ministry said it had destroyed scores of Ukrainian air bases, military facilities and drones. It confirmed the loss of one of its Su-25 attack jets, blaming “pilot error,” and said an An-26 transport plane had crashed because of technical failure, killing the entire crew. It did not say how many were aboard....
___

[Ambar]

Ukraine had plenty of head notice about an impending invasion. Ukrainian military and its government has the full support of NATO including sophisticated radar imagery, intelligence, anti tank weapons, cyber warfare tools etc . Given all these advantages + the fact that they are fighting on their home turf it is baffling they’ve offered a weak resistance so far and have allowed the enemy reach the gates of their capital, it all sounds too unreal . Unless Ukraine is acting according to a plan and are pulling the ruskies into a trap . I remember Syrian army realizing they cannot fight isis everywhere made a strategic retreat and fortified Damascus , and it was from Damascus that a counter attack against ISIS began. We should have a clear picture by next week.

[srin]

It does appear that the Russki Armoured thrust from Belarus, through Kiev Region is actually at the outskirts (about 50 km) from Kiev.
That is one heck of a lightning strike campaign - almost 200 km in a single day!
If that momentum can be maintained and the Russkis are smart enough not to enter the urban areas, instead rely on special ops troops, then its perhaps time Volodymyr Zelenskyy starts checking out his exit options.

Latest news is even more dire for Kiev. Corroborated here.

Russian forces are in Kyiv, Ukraine's defence ministry said, and gunfire has been heard near the government district.

The defence ministry said "the enemy" is in Kyiv's Obolon district - about five miles from the city centre.

What has happened to UKR army ? Have they been feinted away or have they just dissolved ? This seems to be Afghan army redux.

[williams]

...Ukraine is completely dominating the information war space. The longer this goes on, the worse for Russia.

That is the only credible support Ukraine is getting with the west dominated Media. I would wait 96 hours to see where each side is in terms of capabilities and positions. If the Kyiv govt collapses, then west will fold. I don't think Russians are planning for a long urban war of attrition. But if somehow the west can bog them down then Putin will fold.

[sajo]

Modiji is the only major world leader with a line to Putin (apart from his buddy Eleven) these days ? European and Asian majors avoiding Vladbhai like the plague. Only NaMo can speak to Vlad on the day of the invasion and actually come out looking good.

http://mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dt ... Federation

Phone call between Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi and H. E. Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation

February 24, 2022

Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi spoke on telephone today with His Excellency Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation.

President Putin briefed Prime Minister about the recent developments regarding Ukraine. Prime Minister reiterated his long-standing conviction that the differences between Russia and the NATO group can only be resolved through honest and sincere dialogue. Prime Minister appealed for an immediate cessation of violence, and called for concerted efforts from all sides to return to the path of diplomatic negotiations and dialogue.

Prime Minister also sensitised the Russian President about India's concerns regarding the safety of the Indian citizens in Ukraine, especially students, and conveyed that India attaches the highest priority to their safe exit and return to India.

The leaders agreed that their officials and diplomatic teams would continue to maintain regular contacts on issues of topical interest.
New Delhi
February 24, 2022

I would have liked to see keywords like countries would like to continue their cooperation in fighting the pandemic and sustainable energy (other words for gib cheap petrol).

[srin]

^^^ Interesting terminology here - "differences between Russia and the NATO group". Nothing about differences between Russia and Ukraine. Trying to read between the lines here...

[sajo]

^^^ Interesting terminology here - "differences between Russia and the NATO group". Nothing about differences between Russia and Ukraine. Trying to read between the lines here...

Even Russian statement talks about Kiev and NATO, not Ukraine.

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67848

Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with Prime Minister of the Republic of India Narendra Modi.
February 24, 2022
21:20

During the discussion of the situation around Ukraine, Vladimir Putin gave his principled assessment of Kiev’s aggressive actions against civilians in Donbass and also its long-standing destructive policy of seeking to dismantle the Minsk agreements. In these circumstances and given how the United States and its NATO allies have been expanding their military presence in Ukraine, which is unacceptable to Russia, the decision was taken to launch a special military operation.

The Prime Minister of India was appreciative of the explanation and asked for assistance in ensuring the safety of Indian nationals who are currently in Ukraine. The President of Russia said that the necessary instructions would be given.

Some aspects of bilateral cooperation were touched upon in the context of the Russian-Indian summit in New Delhi in December 2021.

It was agreed to continue contacts at various levels.

[Deans]

This is similar to the 2008 Georgia war which took 4 days.
The Russians advanced approx 60 km in those 4 days, so the current rate of advance, against tougher opposition, is faster.

The best Ukie army units are facing the Rebels in Donetsk & Luhansk and have had years to prepare defensive positions, which is possibly why
The Russian/Separatist forces are making very slow progress there. My opinion was that the Ukies would be less inclined to fight inside Donetsk and Luhansk, if they felt it was de-facto Russian. However, they appear to be resisting more than the rest of the Ukie army covering the other invasion routes. The easiest route to defend against was from Crimea, but that's where the Russian army broke out from easily.

I'm baffled by lack of info on the Ukrainian air force and tank units. Even TASS says they have shot down just 4 Ukie aircraft (they have approx 100 modern fighters) and have not reported on any Tank vs tank engagements.

[srin]

There are two prongs of forces from Belarus into Kiev - one on either side of Dnieper river. The threat for UKR forces defending Kiev is encirclement.

Similarly, the forces from Crimea moving North/Northeast linking with forces in Donetsk or Luhansk can encircle all UKR forces in the east.

[IndraD]

#BREAKING Russia ready to talk if Ukraine army 'lays down arms': foreign minister Lavrov https://twitter.com/AFP/status/14971612 ... 1lDaIhdBPQ

[Cyrano]

Smart move, will create flutter, debate and indecision in Ukraine leadership and those pulling strings from behind. Will make UA resistance vacillate, why fight and die in case any orders to stand down may come in a few hours - just what is needed to complete the RA advance towards Kyiv.

[srin]

The war so far has been quite conventional (unlike the drone war of Azerbaijan-Armenia): Shock and awe strikes with cruise missiles and ARMs on radars and C&Cs, establish air superiority, multi pronged ground assaults, and rush to take the capital.
I find the air assault on the Kiev airport the most interesting part. Quite daring and exceptionally risky. But it seems to have paid off
Russian Airborne Assault Force Holding Airport Near Kiev For 24 Hours Unblocked

On the morning of February 24, a group of Russian paratroopers, consisting of a reinforced company of about 200 men, landed from helicopters and seized Gostomel airport, located 7 km northwest of Kiev, which is part of the Kiev agglomeration.

For more than 24 hours, Russian paratroopers repelled attacks by the vastly superior Ukrainian army.
As of 10:00 a.m. local time on Feb. 25, the paratroopers had been deblocked by an advancing mechanized column of the Russian army.

[LakshmanPST]

I didn't see Russians using much Air Force in the first 2 days, though there are unverified (mostly fake) reports of some downed Russian jets...
They seem to have used lot of missiles and special forces to take out important nodes while simultaneously moving in from all sides on the ground...
Once the dust settles, there will be lot to learn from this invasion...

[Yagnasri]

So Russian ground forces reached that airport and, at least in the outskirts of Kyiv.

There may not be much use of the airforce as they used missiles to do the job for them. Selective and pinpoint. While US wars were well advertised, Russian operations in former USSR republics Syria was not widely studied in detail and even known.

In the meanwhile

https://www.firstpost.com/world/antony- ... 07031.html

[IndraD]

tough day for india
UN voting on Ukr
Ru has clearly sought our vote

[LakshmanPST]

Important point is, Russia sought our support openly... Not in some backdoor diplomatic discussions...
Wonder how we will respond...

[Yagnasri]

I do not see us voting against Russia, at least.

[prahaar]

India will abstain, most likely. Depends also on the text of the resolution. For political reasons US may be compelled to make harsh statements which will ensure India will not vote in their support (against Russia).