Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

[vijaykarthik]

Support for war in Ukraine prior to invasion was at 50% per a pre-war poll (Levada? cant recall). I suspect it will be at a much lower % now. With reserves effectively being frozen, this will be serious trouble for the invasion too. No populace is going to be happy when there is almost 100% chance of sovereign default and S&P has already cut ratings to junk and the rest will follow soon.

Poor call by Putin is my gut. He has over extended himself. Absolutely unsure why this was done. If this were a forecasting site, I would have proposed how long he will survive as a qn to be tracked. (But dictators usually dont leave or get deposed IIRC per usual base rate of these occurrences).

[ldev]

Poor call by Putin is my gut. He has over extended himself. Absolutely unsure why this was done. If this were a forecasting site, I would have proposed how long he will survive as a qn to be tracked. (But dictators usually dont leave or get deposed IIRC per usual base rate of these occurrences).

Forecasting is a dicey business, but I would say that the countdown has begun on Putin's exit. Now that the sanctions are in place, they will not be lifted anytime soon. Notwithstanding any agreement reached between Russia and Ukraine, the sanctions will not be lifted unless all Russian forces withdraw to pre Feb 23 positions. And there there is the possibility of a demand for withdrawal from Crimea as well which will be impossible for Putin to comply with. The un-spoken and un-stated objective of the sanctions is that there is pressure mounted on the inner circle to depose and get rid of Putin. If the rouble plummets in value, there is a run on banks for cash, hyperinflation, shortage of basic goods and services, all of which can happen because of the sanctions on the Central Bank of Russia, the pressure on Putin's inner circle to get rid of him will grow.

[vijaykarthik]

Hard hitting piece by Lt Gen Ata Hasnain (retd)

https://chanakyaforum.com/war-in-ukrain ... ns-galore/

[anupmisra]

I am a little wary of going down the path of playing the peacemaker and kingmaker, as it might open the door for similar international intervention in Kashmir.

Maybe the term "kingmaker" was a bit of a stretch on my part.

But, after the Yukraine affair, the UNSC clearly needs a makeover. China is no longer qualified to be there (well, neither is UKstan). If ever there was an opportunity for India to make its case to be on UNSC as a permanent member (viz., a growing and respected global economic, military, and ethos-based power with clear strategic thinking) this is it! India's cultural hold on Gulf, South and South East Asia goes longer than the chini's who got on the council by default.

At that point, Cashmere would become a non-issue.

[anupmisra]

Russia is our friend.... The west and EU are our enemies

I don't know where to begin. In global politics, I am told, there are no permanent friends or enemies. What are India's long-term (25 years or longer) goals?

[Prem Kumar]

By freezing SWIFT from Central Bank of Russia, the West has effectively targeted the Russian civilians instead of the Russian Army. This is an act of war by the West & a cowardly one.

We've seen this happen before where millions of children have starved/died because the sole superpower doesn't mind (& would rather enjoy) spilling the blood of brown people. Now its the turn of the Slavs.

[ManuJ]

Hard hitting piece by Lt Gen Ata Hasnain (retd)

https://chanakyaforum.com/war-in-ukrain ... ns-galore/

To all those in this forum who are portraying this invasion as some master stroke by Putin, please read this article.

I had written yesterday that European countries would increase their defense budget, but didn't expect it to happen so soon, and not to be lead by Germany. Germany has surprised many, all in good ways.

Putin's situation only worsens, and the opposition mounts with each day.
EU has agreed to supply arms and ammunition to Ukraine. It has also stopped all Russian flights from its airspace.
Turkey is poised to stop passage of Russian ships from the Bosphorus strait.

Watch the opening of tomorrow's markets in Moscow.
I expect the Ruble to fall precipitously and the market to crash.

Putin will be well-advised to take whatever concessions he can extract in the negotiations on the Ukraine-Belarus border, and spin it as a victory to his domestic audience.

[Prem Kumar]

Wasn't it the same German douches who wouldn't sell H&Ks to our Special Forces because Kashmir was a "conflict zone"? Nice to see them feel the heat in their own backyard. And when that happens, out go the principles.

[Baikul]

Kyiv surrounded as per Mayor, the former boxer Vitali Klitschko.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... f472ec1621

By freezing SWIFT from Central Bank of Russia, the West has effectively targeted the Russian civilians instead of the Russian Army. This is an act of war by the West & a cowardly one.

We've seen this happen before where millions of children have starved/died because the sole superpower doesn't mind (& would rather enjoy) spilling the blood of brown people. Now its the turn of the Slavs.

The west is already fighting a total war with Russia saar, even if it isn’t directly present on the military battlefield.

You only have to see the EU president’s past 10 tweet to realise the incredible level of internal cooperation and also resolve to do battle in its own way. There are wide ranging financial, industrial, economic actions. EU is for the first time in its history sending weapons to a battle zone!

It’s all designed to do one thing and one thing alone - take Putin down. There’s no morality here, and neither bravery nor cowardice. Putin is fighting a war in his own way, as is the west.

[achy]

It seems clear to me that Atlanticists have been planning for this war with Russia for a long time. But for trump this would have happened even earlier. Trump was a major obstacle as he was laser focused on China instead of Russia. This is the reason they had to force him out. I think trump's strategy was to extract US out of this Atlanticism and pivot to Indo Pacific. And let European powers stand up for themselves and defend themselves, if needed. But the historical hatred of Russia by Deep state took him down. Just look back in the runup to US elections. Dems kept painting Russia as number one enemy while for trump it was China. Once the coast was cleared, Deep State would have started war irrespective of what Russia desired. Putin understood that war is fait accompli for him and sooner he gets on better the chance for him as delay will keep raising the cost. But , I think he missed a trick. He should have started the war, perhaps, 1 year earlier when US was still in Afg and world economy was still in quagmire. But may be due to CoVid, he may himself not have been fully prepared or perhaps he was waiting to see if new dispensation's will change its approach towards europe.

I think, Deep state has concluded, perhaps due to historical hatred, that Russia must be first neutralized before they move on to next target. China could wait. Also, notice the hue and cry raised on India's abstention and how the western hordes are painting this vote as an immoral act. I think Indo-Pacific is dead for a while.

Only think India could do with its limited maneuverability is buy time and find at least one partner which is not its civilizational enemy. I looked far and see only Japan could be that country. It was interesting to hear Abe asking US to rid its ambiguity on Taiwan just other day. Japan is our only possible long term and trusted partner.

Also, India needs to make some tactical move vis-a-vis China without letting its guard down. Perhaps, send some feelers to revive BRICS. West's biggest weapon is the stanglehold on financial systems and it least some moves have to be made to counter it.

[ManuJ]

Most analysis on the disparity of size and capability of the two forces discounts the important factor of morale and determination. Not to mention the logistical issues of resupply and rotation of troops, etc.
Russian soldiers are fighting an unpopular war against their Slavic brothers, far from home.
Ukrainians are fighting to save their country and their cities.

Russians will find it easy to take military targets, but far more difficult to capture major cities.
And without taking and securing Kiev followed by the decapitation of Ukranian leadership, Putin's fundamental objectives will not be met.

If all the anti-armor and anti-aircraft missiles promised by the west make it into the hands of the Ukranian forces, it will be disastrous for the Russians.
Let's not forget, the vanguard of Russian conventional ground forces is what we in this forum call 'tin-cans' - highly susceptible to even basic anti-armor missiles.

[Cain Marko]

we're seeing a new Germany, One which perhaps is seeing the importance of being able to defend oneself without foreign support.

Russia and Putin may very well accomplish their territorial goals but they'll find a Europe which is better armed and more antagonistic towards them than it has been in a long long time

Akshay, great summary. Thank you.

I love the third point, especially the highlighted part in red. It would indeed be a game changer if Europe (Germany will lead the way) is able to defend herself without foreign support. Great lesson for India to learn as well. PM Modi made this announcement a couple of days back. See article below.

If not for anything else, Putin has taught Western Europe that the US is no longer reliable.

Admiral Saar and others, I'm not so sure that German increase in defence budget means less dependence on US. It might very well be that much of that 100 billion goes to US MIC, which is probably salivating at the prospect.

I also doubt that Europe can afford to be more antagonistic. If the russkis are really pushed into a corner, they could easily turn off/choke the NS1 tap. It will bring Europe to is knees.

Conversely, russkis can start looking for other markets ... India, Africa and of course China.

The plot thickens...

[anupmisra]

To all those in this forum who are portraying this invasion as some masterstroke by Putin...

I am not sure where you got this impression (that the invasion was a masterstroke)?

[John]

If all the anti-armor and anti-aircraft missiles promised by the west make it into the hands of the Ukranian forces, it will be disastrous for the Russians.
Let's not forget, the vanguard of Russian conventional ground forces is what we in this forum call 'tin-cans' - highly susceptible to even basic anti-armor missiles.

Main problem is Russian air defense systems Buk, Pantsir seem to struggle against dealing with drones. I have brought up in previous engagements where there were used in Syria and Libya but those were blamed on locals not knowing how to use it.

Also T-72, T-84 and T-90 cannot seem to withstand any hits from even panzerfaust let alone NLAW and Javelin. Russians have design crude contraception to provide some protection but they don’t seem to do any good.

Shows the importance having armor that has adequate protection and has some type of APS.

[Cain Marko]

To all those in this forum who are portraying this invasion as some masterstroke by Putin...

I am not sure where you got this impression (that the invasion was a masterstroke)?

Yeah, I haven't seen anyone suggesting that either.

[John]

I am not sure where you got this impression (that the invasion was a masterstroke)?

Yeah, I haven't seen anyone suggesting that either.

I recall plenty of that but let’s not go down this rabbit hole.

[Baikul]

Hard hitting piece by Lt Gen Ata Hasnain (retd)

https://chanakyaforum.com/war-in-ukrain ... ons-galore

.

To all those in this forum who are portraying this invasion as some master stroke by Putin, please read this article.

…..

Putin's situation only worsens, and the opposition mounts with each day.
……

Putin will be well-advised to take whatever concessions he can extract in the negotiations on the Ukraine-Belarus border, and spin it as a victory to his domestic audience.

.

I had written around the end of the first day of this war that Putin seems to have put himself in an unfavourable strategic position. It’s become even worse in a few days.

I can’t see an endgame that benefits him and Russia both.

If he negotiates and spins a victory as you put it, at best I see the him getting away with minimal concessions from the West, prestige severely reduced internally and maybe good for a year before he goes.

If he doesn’t negotiate but takes the war option he has two options - either continue at the same tempo with mounting losses. And a long term insurgency on his hands. And he’ll run the risk of going in this case as well as Russia gets totally isolated and domestic frustration increases.

Of he can significantly up the tempo of war, that’s when casualties may become catastrophic. End result will be the same.

The only positive outcome for Russia (not him) is if the power apparatus there decides asap that he goes. Then they declare cease fire, blame it all on Putin, hug and kiss the west and a new Russian dispensation starts all over again.

My one fear in the above is that on the negotiation table the West decides to leave him no room to save face. Then we could see an all out war in Ukraine, and truly dangerous global scenario.

[Rakesh]

Admiral Saar and others, I'm not so sure that German increase in defence budget means less dependence on US. It might very well be that much of that 100 billion goes to US MIC, which is probably salivating at the prospect.

I also doubt that Europe can afford to be more antagonistic. If the russkis are really pushed into a corner, they could easily turn off/choke the NS1 tap. It will bring Europe to is knees.

Conversely, russkis can start looking for other markets ... India, Africa and of course China.

The plot thickens...

Cain-ji, in the short term absolutely. I definitely see Germany going in for the F-35 + whatever other US kit comes their way. That is guaranteed now. This issue is long term. If there is anything the Europeans have learnt is that the Americans are unwilling to commit if their interests are not endangered. None of them want to share the fate of what Ukraine is going through right now. There was a time when having Unkil on your side was a source of great security. Today, it is more of a headache than anything else.

All this infighting that the Western Europeans have been doing in the EU will now be set aside. It is a question of survival. A number of projects will more than likely get a new lease of life (FCAS is one example). Better to invest a good chunk of that $100 billion in Europe than invest in the US, whose reliability as a partner diminishes alarmingly day by day. Afghanistan was a terrible debacle, Ukraine might go down that path (but too early to call) and if Taiwan shares the same fate...then Europe better pull up their big boy pants and get serious. A lot of cooperation on military programs will occur now between Germany, France, Spain, Italy, etc. Investing in Europe (vs the US) is also good from an economic sense (jobs) as well. Nothing gets the economy going again, like the threat of war. History has proven that.

Putin did the unthinkable - unite Western Europe. It is the UK I feel sorry for. They walked out of the EU at the wrong time IMVHO.

Apart from a sea route, I am not seeing any land route through which India can access Russian oil. China has direct access.

[Y. Kanan]

If you’re going to threaten nukes, go big or go home! Forget Ukraine; it’s time for Russia to declare a no fly zone over Syria and demand the withdrawal of US & Turkish forces from the country (both are NATO members and occupying Syria illegally).

[ManuJ]

The sad truth is that today's Russia is a 2nd rate power trying to punch way above its weight, based on nostalgia of the era where it was indeed one of the two superpowers. Its veto power in the UN and its nuclear arsenal give it some leverage, but they can only go so far.

Russia's economy is half the size of the state of California, and one-third the size of Germany.
And a huge part of that economy is driven by oil, gas, and mineral exports. It's not a manufacturing or technology powerhouse.
It just cannot take on the combined forces of USA and EU, neither economically nor militarily.
On top of that, the west controls the global media and the global economic system.

Putin is simply disillusioned and living in a fantasy world of the past.
And he's going to learn that the hard way.

[Jay]

I had written around the end of the first day of this war that Putin seems to have put himself in an unfavourable strategic position. It’s become even worse in a few days.

I can’t see an endgame that benefits him and Russia both.

As much as I can hope for a multi polar world so that India can benefit in that eco-system, I am very surprised about how Putin went into this. Russia/Putin has enough leverage to install a puppet government in UK in the next general election. By doing this misadventure, he has united the entire Europe against him, poured new blood into NATO's resurgence, made sure that Germany and other energy dependent countries now for sure look for their energy elsewhere, become China's nuclear vassal if this war does not go as planned.

This should be a wake up call for out defense planners and most importantly the Generals, and Admirals who still stubbornly resist desi weapons and continue their purchases by brochures.

[Rakesh]

I can’t see an endgame that benefits him and Russia both.

Putin only thinks about Putin. Same with Xi.

[rsingh]

To all those in this forum who are portraying this invasion as some masterstroke by Putin...

I am not sure where you got this impression (that the invasion was a masterstroke)?

Well I am one of those who think that. He has to take make sure that NATO is out of UKi. He has to make sure that Russian speaking population is kept safe . He acted. CRIMEA AND TWO OTHER REPUBLICS are in Russia. What is the problem? Russians do not give damn to the notion of Log Kya Kahange. It was their strategic interest and they acted. Sanctions are there but Russia is ready.
In fact for the first time European hypocrasy is in broad light.
O think this will bring some fundamental changes in the world order. UN SC reforms will be accelerated. Dollar may loose it status as world currency. SWIFT will have alternative.
I think India and China will gain more important roles in world politics.Momentum is shiftilng to Asia.
Salam

[ldev]

China has the financial muscle to rescue Russia but the Chinese will sit this out and then pick up the pieces for pennies on the dollar. They are in it for the long game. The Central Bank of Russia sanctions by the G7 will make a lot of non G7 Central Banks sit up and look for other options. This kind of sanction is something you can use once before the herd scatters. It could give a shot in the arm to the yuan for it's wider use provided China encourages it and wider adoption of CIPS (Cross Border Payment System), China's version of SWIFT.

[Cain Marko]

Putin seems to be losing the plot... What's the point of the nuclear threat. Far better to have threatened NS1.

He does have the option of besieging the cities, which I think he at least now partly had, and then pulling back after strong bargains.

[Cain Marko]

This kind of sanction is something you can use once before the herd scatters. It could give a shot in the arm to the yuan for it's wider use provided China encourages it and wider adoption of CIPS (Cross Border Payment System), China's version of SWIFT.

Yeah that's my guess too. Might also make crypto more viable.

[ldev]

Well I am one of those who think that. He has to take make sure that NATO is out of UKi. He has to make sure that Russian speaking population is kept safe . He acted. CRIMEA AND TWO OTHER REPUBLICS are in Russia.

IMO, Putin acted now because the same crew that was in the WH in 2014 is now back, minus Obama. From Biden, to Susan Rice to Victoria Nuland to Blinken, all of the actors were there when Maidan happened in 2014 and then as a response he took over Crimea. He has tried to beat them to the punch this time before they did something.

[vera_k]

IMO the chaotic withdrawal from Afg handicapped the odds of any meaningful US military support for Ukraine. German moves to boost their defense spending lend credence to this theory. Ironic that Europe needed Putin to drive home the message the US admin had been delivering for a while.

[anupmisra]

I recall plenty of that but let’s not go down this rabbit hole.

Fair enough! Let's move on.

[Rakesh]

IMO the chaotic withdrawal from Afg handicapped the odds of any meaningful US military support for Ukraine. German moves to boost their defense spending lend credence to this theory.

US will not use American troops to create no-fly zone in Ukraine, says UN ambassador
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/27/politics ... index.html
27 Feb 2022

"We're not going to put American troops in danger. That means we're not going to put American troops in the air as well, but we will work with the Ukrainians to give them the ability to defend themselves," she said.

[Mort Walker]

German increase in defense spending may not be a boon for US MIC. They will increase the number of forces and material for the Bundeswehr and Luftwaffe where they may produce more tanks and APCs such as the Leopard and increase the number of Eurofighter Typhoons.

The Europeans have a bloody history and increasing defense spending by another major European power (4th largest GDP at $4.2T) is a serious concern for international stability. Particularly UK & Germany which started two world wars.

The Ukraine situation doesn't look good for Russia no matter how you look at it. The Russians held back when they should have just destroyed all infrastructure by the 2nd day. The longer this goes on, the worse it is.

The US government were supposed to be the responsible adults coming in after Jan. 2021, and they appear to be stupid and incompetent. The neoliberal/neocons are pushing for nuclear annihilation without thinking.

[kit]

A fully militarised Germany ..who are we kidding? .. another phoenix rises from the ashes... The anglo saxons let loose a caged beast

[eklavya]

^^^^
Germany is a democratic nation, at peace with all of its neighbours, and with a deep commitment to pacifism. Germany tried everything to persuade President Putin to not invade Ukraine. President Putin’s reckless aggression against Ukraine has left Germany with no choice but to bolster its military capability to deter the likes of President Putin. Germany’s neighbours and partners in the EU and NATO will all welcome Germany’s enhanced commitment to their collective security and defence.

[Anant]

How long do people see this conflict lasting?
Reminds me of that old song, A New World Order!

[williams]

https://www.ft.com/content/e5735375-75d ... 8435cd42d9

The financial world is already salivating about moving away from the dollar. A lot of advantage for China is this conflict.

[Mort Walker]

A fully militarised Germany ..who are we kidding? .. another phoenix rises from the ashes... The anglo saxons let loose a caged beast

The Russians, Germans, British and French are all the same - they are threat to international peace and stability. All they have given the world are colonialism and wars. Technological benefits were for themselves for enrichment and not the whole of humanity - who had to wait until it trickled down to them.

[eklavya]

^^^^
Mort-ji, Russia started a war on Thursday. Germany hasn’t started a war since 1939. This equal / equal is stretching credulity a bit far.

[Mort Walker]

How long do people see this conflict lasting?
Reminds me of that old song, A New World Order!

This is not going to end well for Russia, Europe and the US. The US leadership, due to the current government, are incapable of seeing the problem before hand and let this get out of control and left no room for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. The Ukrainian Orange Revolution crowd between 2004-2014 killed some 10,000 ethnic Russians in the east which emboldened Putin. With US domestic problems on a slow steady boil, they will distract the public with bread and circuses, where then result may be a nuclear war.

Many of us prefer the mean tweets instead of this mess.

[Mort Walker]

^^^^
Mort-ji, Russia started a war on Thursday. Germany hasn’t started a war since 1939. This equal / equal is stretching credulity a bit far.

The Europeans are cruel people by nature as you move from west to east. The Germans were participants in the cruel cold war. They are a threat to international peace and stability.

[Anant]

At the end of the day, the innocent man, woman and child suffers. Russia might become bankrupt, Ukraine in ruins, refugees all over. China I would think is the ultimate winner.