Eastern Europe/Ukraine [Feb 6th 2015]

[rkirankr]

https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/14 ... 9165326337

Please give more information as there are people who are not on Twitter.

Ok, this tweet talks about the looting which happened in parts of UK capital because of distribution of the Guns. Of course the person tweeting appears to be leaning towards Russia, so FWIW

[sajo]

Noob speculation.
There was rampant arming of civilians, and now, many with criminal backgrounds, in Ukraine. One only releases their prisoners if one has lost all hope of holding on to the country. I imagine the conversation would go something like
"Igor, you got combat experience? "
" Tak Tak, I shot two rivals at club in Kiev.."
"Say no more...heres your AK"

I wont be surprised if the Unfortunate indian student Naveen who was killed today at a grocery store may be a victim of Civilian fire from Ukrainian side.
Apart from Indians stuck in the warzone , we have no skin in the game and should stay aloof. Infact, if two countries wanted to clobber each other to death, we should have been in a position to sell hammers to both of them. Isnt that how all "western" rich nations have acquired all their wealth ?

[Sachin]

Stranded Pakistani students use Indian flag, chant ‘Bharat Mata Ki Jai’ slogans to escape Ukraine, claims viral video
I sincerely hope that "seculars forces in India" will not use this to say India-Paki Bhai Bhai and encourage these folks to even land in India .

[Baikul]

Stranded Pakistani students use Indian flag, chant ‘Bharat Mata Ki Jai’ slogans to escape Ukraine, claims viral video
I sincerely hope that "seculars forces in India" will not use this to say India-Paki Bhai Bhai and encourage these folks to even land in India .

Please everyone to share relentlessly.

Actually on helping them, I disagree. We should actively and officially encourage Pakistani students to use Indian infra to “get rescued” and flown back to Delhi. Video their grateful and effusive comments. Video their potential abuse of Baki efforts. Get many to say thanks to India, and one or two to even say thanks to Modi ji. Take a million videos and for the next year keep hammering home the point that Indian capability, reputation and reach saved their miserable backsides.

I genuinely think it’s a media opportunity of the decade.

[sajo]

Please everyone to share relentlessly.

Actually on helping them, I disagree. We should actively and officially encourage Pakistani students to use Indian infra to “get rescued” and flown back to Delhi. Take a million videos and for the next year keep hammering home the point that Indian capability, reputation and reach saved their miserable backsides.

I genuinely think it’s a media opportunity of the decade.

Should we also attempt to "wheatbag" (like rice bag) them? Free stay at ashram with Geeta lessons, fine rotis and also fresh tomatoes everyday ?

[Dilbu]

You are forgetting the cardinal rule. Jo lahore mein..

[Pratyush]

Good point. But need to note that (i) Baltic states directly bordering Russia and physically close to Moscow are in NATO and (ii) today's news is that Finland is considering joining NATO https://www.politico.eu/article/finland ... ne-russia/

None of the Baltic nation's have seen two US backed coup in the last 20 year's.

Nor have those states by constitutional actions declared the Russian citizens second class citizens.

Ukraine under Minsk 2 accords was under treaty obligation to reverse turning Russians second class citizens. Instead does nothing to improve the lot of the ethnic Russians for 7 years after signing the treaty.

In short Ukraine has acted Paki. The others with exception of Georgia under the US backed moron in 2008 have not.

[kit]

Stranded Pakistani students use Indian flag, chant ‘Bharat Mata Ki Jai’ slogans to escape Ukraine, claims viral video
I sincerely hope that "seculars forces in India" will not use this to say India-Paki Bhai Bhai and encourage these folks to even land in India .

OT but does this guy deserve indian citizenship ?

https://www.opindia.com/2022/02/rizwan- ... -protests/

[Baikul]

about above twitter video

Consequences of Zelensky's decision to distribute 20,000 barrels of weapons to gopniks, drug addicts and alcoholics

video of dead person on street

And this is how a single video can be twisted so many times. Mauleners please note:

The first time this video was shared hours ago it was - “patriotic Ukrainian forces shooting looter”

A few hours after that it was “Russians kill Ukranian civilian”

Now it’s a Zelenskiy freed criminal (google the background to this) this running around the streets killing people!

There are so many media related lessons for us here.

[Baikul]

You are forgetting the cardinal rule. Jo lahore mein..

Lol thank you saar for getting a part of my youth (on BR) back. What a lovely phrase to recall

[Baikul]

Please everyone to share relentlessly.

Actually on helping them, I disagree. We should actively and officially encourage Pakistani students to use Indian infra to “get rescued” and flown back to Delhi. Take a million videos and for the next year keep hammering home the point that Indian capability, reputation and reach saved their miserable backsides.

I genuinely think it’s a media opportunity of the decade.

Should we also attempt to "wheatbag" (like rice bag) them? Free stay at ashram with Geeta lessons, fine rotis and also fresh tomatoes everyday ?

Stage-manage it all! Our reach is so much more than theirs. I’m afraid the potential impact of how we can play this is being lost in transition.

[S_Madhukar]

I hope we don't get into helping Baki business, one rotten egg in our midst will destroy our reputation and we will be looked at with suspicion... all these Bakis are from decent families they might run away to london and take our goodwill with them, they can of course pay their way out

[Deans]

It seemed Russia has air superiority since the invasion started and not just since a day or two. I'm saying this based on numerous videos and reports of heli movements, heli drops, hardly any cases of their planes shot down and pilots caught after ejecting. Was it not the case in reality ?

The current situation points to:
- Poorly thought out or rather incompetent management of supply chain of food, fuel, reinforcing and holding troops behind the thrust contingents by Russia
- Smart tactics by Ukraine to draw Russian forces into urban conflict and put armed civilians in front
- Ukraine and its supporting nations have managed to drag the conflict longer to make the effect of their retaliatory non-military moves hit Russia with more and more impact
- Whatever support Russia was counting on to come from within Ukrainian polity or people has not materialised

The war is barely 5 days old. In GW2, where the US had an even bigger advantage over the enemy and the logistics position was far simpler, it took the US 3 weeks to reach Baghdad. After the first 4 days of advancing, their operational pause was 1 week long.
The Russian army had advanced on average 60 km /day, (Kiev and Crimea thrusts) which is the maximum their logistics tail will allow. Supply trucks have to move from depots in Russia, to the front of the advancing column, resupply them, then move back to Russia and repeat the process. There is little off road movement possible. There is no evidence of incompetence (yet) in managing the supply chain.

It's probably that they expected some of the Ukr army to collapse, after the first deep (and weakly supported) thrusts. That assumption did not work, so the Russians have gone to plan B. That is understandable.

Russians have not yet got involved in urban conflict. They have sent recce units into cities to see if they would fall. They didn't, so the Russians have bypassed them and are holding the ring around them with light infantry and 2nd level units. I would argue that a lot of the Ukr army may have got sucked into the cities.

Kiev is not WW2 Leningrad or Stalingrad. Cutting the city (which is mostly done) means no food. An army cannot fight without food. The average civilian will demand peace talks, after a couple of days of siege. The Russians won't even call it that, they will just appeal to the people to stop fighting.

Support from Ukrainian people was not expected barring Donetsk /Luhansk and partly in Kharkiv district with a high Russian minority. I would agree though that Putin has underestimated the sanctions and unity of NATO.

[achy]

Putin has demonstrated that when you attack the west, its interests, or even a half way ally, you are attacking its system. This "system" starts from abstract judo-chrisitan morality and extends down in a complex interlocking web of cross-national dependencies, geographical spread, an established "rules based order", treaties and pacts, diplomacy, trade and economic ties, supply chains, access regulations to markets, currency management, banks and lending institutions, academica, entertainment, media houses, and of course collective military capability.

Russia unfortunately remained at the fringes of this "system" partly due to its own doing. The USSR was a competing system though far less efficient, and collapsed under its own weight, with generous nudging from the West's system. USSR could flourish when the West was still recovering from post WW-2 destruction and fatigue, and was losing its colonies one by one. Then too, it built a closed, defensive system feeding on itself, with no way to let off its internal stresses and strains, where as the West rebuilt (somewhat organically) an expansive and more cunningly exploitative system that feeds on or co-opts others. Lets call it "system 2.0"

Very nice post... I agree that "West" is nothing but Christianity 2.0. West is the sophisticated child retaining the fundamental supremacist DNA of Christianity 1.0. Basic difference between C1.0 and C2.0 aka West is the approach of expansion...

C1.0's approach was use of military first, then assimilate the natives either thru subjugation, persuasion and if needed complete annihilation. But it was a very crude, brute force approach with very high human cost. Direct wars cost lot of human resource. Initially it may not have been an issue but with time this was unsustainable.

C2.0 fixes this using what you call system 2.0. Strategy is to achieve a slow sublimation using vice like grip through complex web of interlocking dependencies just like a Boa slowly crushes the prey. I always used to think why West always champions "Democracy", "Freedom of expression", "liberal values", etc. Finally the answer that I got was that these are not universal values for West but just a set of low cost toolkit to achieve the end goal. These are not universal values because West retains right to define these thru stranglehold on narrative as well as they retain the right to revoke it from the grantee if it does not behave. E.g. India is right now democracy but it may not be tomorrow if the current flagbearers of West decides so!

How do u fight System 2.0. One way will be to remain outside of it. Another way will be to have a defense mechanism like having lethal venom. Other could be that create a leverage while still being in embrace.

You see Russia has decided to fight by remaining outside. Islam has an in-built defense mechanism. China has created a leverage by exploiting the opportunity when it arose. India is perhaps trying to use the same leverage approach but I think it is very late and West is also much wiser after china experience.

But the danger to system 2.0 is not external but internal. An internal implosion is about when not if!

[KLNMurthy]

The easiness with which our society picks on weaker and does not show ability to make strategic decesion explains why we were occupied and made poor, to day also Politicans happily shut down strategic industries like copper to be in good books if the international agenda and the capture power.

You may be confusing cause & effect.

The collective character defects you mentioned are, in my view, expected from a society & culture that has long been occupied and sucked dry.

Even the kind of self-flagellation evidenced above—we are horrible people, that’s why bad things are happening to us—is a typical of victim of violence blaming himself/herself.

Taking a step away from self-blame & self-flagellation is a start on the road to recovery & regaining our strength.

[KLNMurthy]

Great posts from Cyrano, Rudradew et sl.

We need a thread, “Lasting lessons from the Russo-Ukraine War.”

[Baikul]

…
We need a thread, “Lasting lessons from the Russo-Ukraine War.”

That was the intent from day one. I would suggest we wait for this war to actually get somewhere in a decisive phase, or you know get over, before we consider “lasting lessons”.

[vinod]

https://swarajyamag.com/tech/from-war-a ... p-industry
From War And Peace To War And Semiconductors: The Impact Of Russo-Ukrainian War On Global Chip Industry

[vinod]

https://twitter.com/amishra77/status/14 ... jBtTQ&s=19
Some nascent lessons from Russia-NATO conflict.

1) Anything can be weaponed.From financial protocols like SWIFT to civilian airspace.
2) Lectures on human rights, freedom of speech etc. are pure geopolitical tool.
3) Private companies (like Google) will take political sides. 1/3

4) War is responded to by methods of war.
5) Self-sufficiency in arms manufacturing alone is no guarantee for strategic autonomy.
6) Need tech, financial & narrative self-sufficiency.
7) White racism still informs West policy. 2/3

8] Entire Latin America, Africa, Asia & Australia is uninvolved in the war. Yet it feels like "our war?" Power of agenda dominance.
9) International rules can always be re-written.
10) Aatmnirbhar Bharat is only way forward. 3/3

[SwamyG]

I like the way Vlodomyr roams around in olive baniyan. And Vladmir is all dressed in suit.

It is all about messaging and propaganda. Hopefully Indian exporters notice this, and start exporting olive baniyans more.

[Manish_Sharma]

TWITTER

@RShivshankar:
Sanction Russia by all means but also explain why U.S was spared for illegal Iraq war, China was spared for annexing Tibet, UK excused for sending warships to Falklands? Today, UK is top gun in FIFA, U.S is heart of Bretton Woods, China is world's manufacturing hub. Just reward?
https://twitter.com/RShivshankar/status ... r9cJw&s=19

[chetak]

ONGC Videsh should smartly pick up what it can

Golden opportunity

@JavierBlas · 22h

BREAKING: And wow!!! After BP, the deluge. Shell announces it's exiting all its joint-ventures with Gazprom, including its 27.5% stake in the Sakhalin-2 LNG facility. Shell carries those JV at $3 billion valuation on its books, and it's warning of impartments #Ukraine[/b]

[Rakesh]

ONGC Videsh should smartly pick up what it can

Golden opportunity

Until Unkil comes in and says otherwise.

Remember Aunty Nikki Haley-ji who advised India to not import any more oil from Iran?

[Cyrano]

Achy,
You expanded the angle I deliberately left out since not directly relevant to this thread. I mostly agree.

However I think the threat to System 2.0 while internal will come from its own success. Just like colonial prosperity made European nations too rich and powerful to not get into wars to settle overseas or local disputes. Even after WW1, the colonial model quickly helped them recover, restore and rearm to fight WW2 barely 3 decades later.

India's joining the System 2.0 espousing multipolarity reveals that we are walking into it eyes open and conscious of the fact that the system's success will at some point lead to increase in entropy to a level that will boil over. And when that happens the strongest may mutually damage and destruct, the weak will get crushed and perhaps the "meek* shall inherit the earth".

*Meek as in non-arrogant, non-aggressive, live and let live attitude.

[chetak]

ONGC Videsh should smartly pick up what it can

Golden opportunity

Until Unkil comes in and says otherwise.

Remember Aunty Nikki Haley-ji who advised India to not import any more oil from Iran?

we have wasted a life time listening to the many whitey tightey unkils out there

Putin may not be India's best friend but has no problem with how India rules itself or in acknowledging the Indian PM is a Hindu. India has minimal to gain & everything from its own identity to lose in becoming subordinate to the west, making it an easy choice to remain neutral.

Compare that with how comfortable Modi's body language is with Putin, Arab leaders & even Trump. Because they don't see in him an unwashed brown man waiting to be cultured by western wisdom. Arabs, Japs or Russia has no problem with the Hinduness of India, only liberal west does.

[chetak]

[Cyrano]

Putin is no saint. ExURSS block has been insular and mostly cut itself out of cultural interaction and human trans-migration spheres where racism easily manifests. Ditto for China.

If they start becoming more interactive societies their mental colour coding will also show very quickly. Ever heard of kind, gentle and respectful Russian and Chinese tourists?

[arshyam]

Good point. But need to note that (i) Baltic states directly bordering Russia and physically close to Moscow are in NATO and (ii) today's news is that Finland is considering joining NATO https://www.politico.eu/article/finland ... ne-russia/

None of the Baltic nation's have seen two US backed coup in the last 20 year's.

Nor have those states by constitutional actions declared the Russian citizens second class citizens.

Ukraine under Minsk 2 accords was under treaty obligation to reverse turning Russians second class citizens. Instead does nothing to improve the lot of the ethnic Russians for 7 years after signing the treaty.

In short Ukraine has acted Paki. The others with exception of Georgia under the US backed moron in 2008 have not.

Yes, I always wondered how Russia didn't do anything about the Baltic trio joining NATO - could it be because:
a) In 2004, they were just pulling out of the abyss of the Yeltsin decade and couldn't do much
b) Their Baltic sea access was not threatened, and it was anyway not as important as the southern warmer waters of the Black sea, which afforded access throughout the year
c) The enclave of Kaliningrad offered them some level of insurance against NATO sea action (not sure about this, since it can also be argued that this enclave was surrounded by NATO on all landward sides.

I think (a) seems most probable.

Coming to Ukraine, yes, there was paki behaviour and the colour revolutions (which Russia did attempt to counter), but the place seems to hold a special place in the Russian psyche. At least Kyiv and the area east of the Dnieper. Apart from the mundane reason of being the source of food (bread basket of Europe) and access to warm water ports (no longer a critical issue after Crimea was annexed by Russia), the original Slavic principality of Kievan-Rus evolved under Tsardom into the concept of the three Russias, and Ukraine as "malorossiya" (Little Russia) is one of the trio. The other two being "Great Russia" (today's Russian federation) and "White Russia" (today's Belarus). Belarus is generally well disposed to Russia and is not an issue. So that leaves Ukraine, whose going into the NATO fold would forever alienate the very fountainhead of Russian civilization and culture, so that's something they don't seem to tolerate. And Russia is in a far better position to act than they were in 2004, and going by their hedges (reduced US treasury debt, converting forex into gold reserves, etc.), they seem to have been preparing for a while.

In short, Ukraine is a red-line for Russia, and that line was crossed during a time they could do something about it, and they did. Will their gambit succeed? Time will tell.

[Y. Kanan]

The Russian advance is not going well, but its not a lost cause either. What is a lost cause is the info war: the West have been utterly successful in pushing the narrative that the Ukrainians are poor innocent brave fighters standing up to Russia against all odds. Be it the fiction of the Mig 29 pilot or the Snake island fighters or the flying suit guy who apparently shot down 3 planes… any fiction is being peddled as the truth. BBC is peddling 5000 dead before zero cross checking.

GoI would do well to understand the information perception dominance that will be required. Sadly we will be not only playing on a pitch owned by the enemy (Twitter and YouTube) but also where some of “our” players will be playing for the opposing team

This should be one of the bigger takeaways for India from this war. In case of an Indo-China conflict we'll have it much worse in the propaganda department than the Russians do now for two reasons. First being that our population is far more accessible for external propaganda. And second, we'll have internal propaganda against our own country from major sections of the media and political parties. Russians don't have to deal with that at all since all they have internally is state sponsored media which will keep tight control on what their own citizens get to see. And they'll probably restrict access to western media and SM websites as well.

Keeping the morale of the citizens up during a war is important. We have to be prepared for our enemies to target this aspect compounded with our politicians and their media lapdogs who cannot look beyond their own political one-upmanship games over the government in power even when the defence of the realm is at stake. We already saw this aspect during Balakot.

If we ever have to do something like this to Pakistan or Bangladesh, it will be the same media onslaught that we're seeing waged on Russia right now. Al Jazeera and the BBC would be the most damaging, not to mention much of the Asian media, to say nothing of how the war would be covered by our own desi media. US mass media would pile on soon after.

I can see the headlines already: "India targets civilians in Lahore"..."Schools and hospitals destroyed" ... "Pray for Pakistan" ... "Hindu fascists threaten world peace" with plenty of indignant, hypocritical outrage from all the usual suspects. It would like the 1998 condemnation only 100x worse. Remember how they branded us a rogue state? All the terrorism and perfidy would be forgotten overnight, with India rebranded as a Hindu fascist state and our PM called the next Hitler. Weapons and aid would pour in to Pakistan while the sanctions and information war pile on the pressure. We're not Russia, and our desperate craving for outside approval would make such an onslaught irresistible. We'd fold in a week and the GOI would fall.

[ramana]

ONGC Videsh should smartly pick up what it can

Golden opportunity

Until Unkil comes in and says otherwise.

Remember Aunty Nikki Haley-ji who advised India to not import any more oil from Iran?

US has no salience.

[Atmavik]

russian helicopter shot down over Dnieper near Kiev

https://twitter.com/XyKyiv/status/14985 ... harkiv-now

[John]

russian helicopter shot down over Dnieper near Kiev

https://twitter.com/XyKyiv/status/14985 ... harkiv-now

Per audio commentary, Apparently there were 17 helos and 2 were shot down (1 off camera). They are Mi-17s, one pilot did pull an amazing maneuver when he skidded the water.

[ramana]

Putin is modern Ghatotkacha.
He is taking the financial Shakti weapon straight on his chin.

[hgupta]

Russia is not that stupid and does not want a similar situation at their borders. I don't blame them.

Good point. But need to note that (i) Baltic states directly bordering Russia and physically close to Moscow are in NATO and (ii) today's news is that Finland is considering joining NATO https://www.politico.eu/article/finland ... ne-russia/

That was Yeltsin's fault. If Putin was at the helm, there was no way he would have allowed that to happen.

As for Finland, I think once Putin deals with Ukraine, he will deal with Finland. He has moderated the threat of Baltic states through the military fortifications in Kalingrad.

[Sicanta]

https://twitter.com/KanwalSibal/status/ ... 3733745664

Kanwal Sibal
@KanwalSibal
Ukraine amb in UNSC telling India to not dither on its vote as it needed to assure safety of its nationals was to coerce us to support western Res. Didn’t tell China to vote yes to protect its 6000 nationals. Arrogance toward us which our thoughtless media overlooks.

[srikandan]

This is the kind pathetic BS that passes for anal-e-sis in Indian think tanks. This "game theoretic analyis" is randomly assigning words to the resulting outcomes. Utter nonsense.

https://twitter.com/pranaykotas/status/ ... 4495695873


This kind of chart is used to tabulate outcomes based on actions given a specific scenario -- assigning words to the parties involved is silly and serves no purpose. What exactly is the lesson to learn from such a chart?

[Rudradev]

Putin is modern Ghatotkacha.
He is taking the financial Shakti weapon straight on his chin.

And the Arjun he is saving with that sacrifice is Xi Jinping.

[ramana]

No. Its India. We got a preview of the financial sanctions that West has lined up.
XJP is not in the picture wrt to Indian interests.

[Rampy]

for people who was giving gyan and bad mouthing, see the video most student s chose to stay back even after advisory was issued. And outlook being true to agenda twisted the facts
https://youtu.be/YpRzmPeo6Vw

[Prem Kumar]

Except that, unlike Shakti, this weapon can be used multiple times