Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 09 Mar 2022 19:56

well, when all else is lost then one may well go down titanic ishtyle

with the band playing "dara singh ka..." and one last hurrah for the band master

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 09 Mar 2022 19:59

May him and his sister remain as heads of the khangress party for another 20 yrs .

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 09 Mar 2022 20:38

picking up some rumblings that pappi vadra might go to the RS from chhattisgarh.

definitely need lootyens address for survival

desh ka damaad wants to get in from moradabad.

meaning that rae bareli seat is also doomed as far as the mafia famiglia is concerned

if true, pappu and pappi would have chosen minority ruled states because they fear the bjp and that puts paid to their bombastic bluster

next step is eyetalian economy class ticket for buzurgs onlee

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 09 Mar 2022 20:39

Vips wrote:It would be good if AAP grows more in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh & Madhya Pradesh to ensure decimation of Congress in all future elections. Wherever AAP grows, congress shrinks. Need a Congress-mukt Bharat.

ConParty carries baggage of DieNasty, Emergency, 1962, 2% growth rate for 50+ years, corruption.

But Ford foundation funded kejri aap which is organically grassroots Maoist-naxalite backed fully by foreign predatory ideologies. AND THEY HAVE NO BAGGAGE OF PAST. Very dangerous BIF army.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 09 Mar 2022 20:41

Manish_Sharma wrote:
Vips wrote:It would be good if AAP grows more in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh & Madhya Pradesh to ensure decimation of Congress in all future elections. Wherever AAP grows, congress shrinks. Need a Congress-mukt Bharat.
ConParty carries baggage of DieNasty, Emergency, 1962, 2% growth rate for 50+ years, corruption.

But Ford foundation funded kejri aap which is organically grassroots Maoist-naxalite backed fully by foreign predatory ideologies. AND THEY HAVE NO BAGGAGE OF PAST. Very dangerous BIF army.

fraud foundation is culinary institute connected and hence it is deep state backed.

you are seeing only the fin of the shark

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 09 Mar 2022 20:51

All this triumphalism is misplaced (or at least, premature).

The INC may lose Punjab tomorrow (or, in fact, they may end up providing crucial outside support to a minority AAP government in Punjab). Regardless, INC is poised to pick up two new states that have been BJP-ruled thus far: Goa and Uttarakhand. Any way you look at it, with such a result, Congress would be better off than they were until now. BJP may retain UP, the big prize, and their partners may retain Manipur, but 2 out of 5 is hardly a resounding victory.

Congress adding a net +1 state to its tally would be a very unfortunate development as well. Rest assured the Sonia-Pappu-Pappini supporters will spin it as a brilliant victory under the leadership of La Famiglia.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 09 Mar 2022 21:20

Rudradev wrote:All this triumphalism is misplaced. The INC may lose Punjab tomorrow (or, in fact, they may end up providing crucial outside support to a minority AAP government in Punjab). Regardless, INC is poised to pick up two new states that have been BJP-ruled thus far: Goa and Uttarakhand. Any way you look at it, with such a result, Congress would be better off than they were until now. BJP may retain UP, the big prize, and their partners may retain Manipur, but 2 out of 5 is hardly a resounding victory.

Congress adding a net +1 state to its tally would be a very unfortunate development as well. Rest assured the Sonia-Pappu-Pappini supporters will spin it as a brilliant victory under the leadership of La Famiglia.

In terms of stats yes I’d agree. But:

One, UP if the BJP wins it makes up for practically every other state (IMVHO). The magnitude of a BJP victory in UP will be huge. A few months ago the popular opinion around the farmer’s agitation was that Yogi was going down. BJP was extremely unpopular in western UP. Akhilesh was the coming Man.

If the BJP forms the UP government it will be an incredible achievement that may change UP and national politics. IMO. Because incumbency backlash, farmer agitation, general and natural public disillusionment was supposed to dismantle the BJP. But if they still win? That message (as workers across parties keep saying) will reverberate. How many times has the incumbent returned to govern?

And the blunt reality is that outside of Punjab where the BJP needs to widen its approach, the other states are too small to matter.

I’ll elaborate for one smaller state, Uttrakhand. It’s incredible (to me) that the BJP hasn’t been wiped out here (bad policies, lousy local leadership and frankly just average governance with same corruption as before6 and some polls are still predicting an almost equal fight. This is because of the cadre. They still care. So I’m going to say that overall the BJP has done well. Punjab? Yeah that’s a bad loss but then with the farmers agitation it was expected. It also says that the BJP as a party needs to understand and ‘absorb’ the farmer/ Sikh sentiment in the medium to long term. My current personal and one person assessment is that the Sikhs have never liked the BJP for whatever reason. That the BIP may need to change.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 09 Mar 2022 21:51

CalvinH wrote:
If they were real BIF than Bhushan and Yadav were never kicked out. Its just power hungry opportunist political party which has been incredibly lucky.

They are all same with same strategic aim be it kejri, sisodia, bhushan and salim yogendra yadav. There disagreements were on tactics. Bhushan and yadav were seen as extra-weight due to there inflexibility on ideology compromises, while kejri-sisodia-gopal rai want to focus on getting power so they can implement the BIF agenda, hence even sitaram yechury addresses AAP Rallies and there is video where yechury admits to exhorting commie cadres to help AAP.

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 09 Mar 2022 21:56

Manish_Sharma wrote:
Vips wrote:It would be good if AAP grows more in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh & Madhya Pradesh to ensure decimation of Congress in all future elections. Wherever AAP grows, congress shrinks. Need a Congress-mukt Bharat.
ConParty carries baggage of DieNasty, Emergency, 1962, 2% growth rate for 50+ years, corruption.

But Ford foundation funded kejri aap which is organically grassroots Maoist-naxalite backed fully by foreign predatory ideologies. AND THEY HAVE NO BAGGAGE OF PAST. Very dangerous BIF army.

If BJP is at the center, AAP ruled Punjab will be under a special scanner with ever ready option of imposition of president rule. Not every time will Khujli win and at the same time splitting of BIF votes between Khan-gress and Khujliwal party is/will be good for the BJP.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 09 Mar 2022 22:21

effectively, what this prize horse's ass is saying is that the BJP campaigned

what was the BJP expected to do, give them a walk over

this entitled commie moron is shell shocked and incoherent

Yogendra Yadav@_YogendraYadav

"It is not about EVM rigging; it is about rigging the screen of our TV and smartphones. It is not booth capturing, but mindscape capturing, an effective capture of the moral and political commonsense."

My take on why UP exit polls didn't surprise me

If BJP wins UP, it’s because party has effectively captured popular mindscape, not booths

If BJP wins UP, it’s because party has effectively captured popular mindscape, not booths

Was the impression of a wave in favour of Akhilesh Yadav and his Samajwadi Party illusory? Not quite but exit polls for UP 2022 show we missed the real question.

YOGENDRA YADAV
8 March, 2022

Representational image of a BJP election rally in Prayagraj | ANI

Ithought of Philip da as I watched the exit polls for the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly election. The forecast of another term for the Bharatiya Janata Party was distressing, but it did not surprise me. The margin of the BJP’s victory projected by some – 300 plus seats and double digit lead in vote share – was and still is shocking. But I was not surprised by the broad direction and the operational conclusion of most of the exit polls. An article by Philip Oldenburg three decades ago had prepared me for such shocks.

This is not how my friends see it. Most of my friends, fellow travellers and comrades have been expecting nothing short of a rout for the BJP. For the last two months they have shared stories about how the BJP was wiped out in Western UP, seat-by-seat analysis of the decimation of the BJP in Poorvanchal and videos of how Akhilesh Yadav is drawing big crowds all over the state. I understand their sense of shock over the exit polls now. If a mediocre government with a cardboard of a leader manages to win popular approval, and that too within a year of one of the worst public health disasters followed by a powerful anti-government farmers’ movement, it should surprise anyone.

I was cured of this surprise over the last six weeks, as I travelled through Uttar Pradesh. I had heard about popular discontent against the Yogi Adityanath government. I had expected anger against its poor record on development, welfare and law-and-order. I thought people would never forget the hardship faced by migrant workers during the lockdown or at least the callousness they suffered during the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. We had documented how the BJP reneged on its entire manifesto promises to the farmers of UP. I had seen the power of the farmers’ movement in the Western UP.

Yet, on the ground, I did not find an anti-incumbency mood in the state. Not because everyone was happy. I encountered a vast range of deep disappointments, complaints against the officials and political leaders and intense anxieties about their life and livelihood. But this did not translate into popular anger against the BJP government. There was a “commonsense” shared by ordinary voters, everyone except Yadavs, Jatavs and Muslims.

Capturing the ‘commonsense’
This commonsense would come out in a typical conversation in rural UP. You ask the people about their conditions, and you hear a litany of complaints (which the unsuspecting journalist mistakes for intense anti-incumbency): ‘Things are really bad. Our family income has fallen over the last two years. There is no work for the educated youth. So many of us lost the jobs we had. Children could not study during the pandemic. Many old people in our village died without any medical support. We could not sell our crops for the official (MSP) price.’ Any mention of stray cattle invites a tirade: Naak me dam kar diya hai (bane of our existence). And mehngai (price rise)? Don’t even start talking about it.

Now you expect them to blame it all on the rulers. But a question about the performance of the Adityanath government gets a surprisingly positive response: “Achhi sarkar hai, theek kaam kiya hai (It’s a decent government, has done good work).” Before you can ask, they recount two benefits. Everyone got additional foodgrain, over and above the standard quota, plus cooking oil and chana. And almost everyone, including many Samajwadi Party (SP) voters, mentions improved law and order. “Hamari behen betiyan surakshit hain (our women are safe)” is a standard refrain.

But what about all the problems they just recounted? You ask this question and they get into rationalising on the BJP’s behalf. ‘What can the government do about these things? Coronavirus was global, so was inflation. Things would have been worse but for Modiji. Is he responsible for not feeding cows once they get old?’ While every small achievement of the BJP, real or imagined, was known to every voter, the SP could not make some of the biggest pain points into election issues. I hardly met any voter who would know some of the main poll planks of Akhilesh Yadav’s party.

It would be a mistake to place this commonsense in the standard register of pro- or anti-incumbency. This is not about a routine assessment of the work done by a government. The voters seem to have made up their mind before they start reasoning. They are not judges, but advocates. They know which side of the argument they stand, who stands with them. The BJP has set up an emotional bond with a vast segment of the voters. They are willing to suspend disbelief, condone misgovernance, undergo material suffering and still stay with their ‘own’ side. They do not mention Ayodhya or Kashi temple on their own, but the Hindu-Muslim divide is very much a subtext of this shared commonsense.

What about caste? Needless to say, this commonsense does not fully cut across all castes and communities. Yet the caste arithmetic does not work to the SP’s advantage. No doubt, the Yadavs were fully mobilised behind the SP, “110 per cent” as they say in Hindi. The Muslims had virtually no choice except the SP, notwithstanding the attractive rhetoric of Asaduddin Owaisi. The SP played smart by giving fewer tickets to Yadavs and Muslims. The Muslim voters in turn played wise by keeping a low profile, though Yadav support for SP was visible and aggressive. The Yadavs and Muslims refused to share the pro-incumbent commonsense. They would pick holes in every pro-government rationalisation. Their polarisation no doubt helped the SP, but that was never going to be enough.

Illusory SP wave?
I discovered that my friends had seriously over-estimated support for the SP among non-Yadav, non-Muslim voters. The famed disaffection of the Brahmins from the Thakur rule of CM Adityanath did not translate into anything on the ground. The so-called ‘upper’ castes continue to be the strongest caste vote bank for the BJP. There was some erosion among the farming communities like Jats, Kurmis and Mauryas, but much less than my friends imagined. With a few exceptions – Nishads at certain places, for example — the lower Other Backward Classes (OBCs) stayed solidly with the BJP. Every SP supporter counted on the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)’s disaffected voters going to the SP. I found little evidence of that, except among a few Pasis. If anything, the former BSP voters and the ex-Congress supporters turned more towards the BJP than the SP.

So, was this impression of a wave in favour of Akhilesh Yadav and his party completely illusory? Not quite. There was, undoubtedly, a surge for the SP everywhere. The massive crowds for Akhilesh’s public meetings were for real. Exit polls suggest that the SP will better its best ever performance of 29 per cent in terms of votes. It needed to improve its 2017 performance by around 15 percentage points and bring the BJP down by at least 5 points to win this election. That was always a Herculean ask. While everyone noted, rightly, that the SP was gaining, not many asked the real question: how much and wide were its gains?

In a bipolar election, the threshold of victory goes up. The SP’s best was not going to be good enough. Also, the SP’s gains were not automatically the BJP’s losses. Exit polls confirm that a shift from multi-cornered contests to a two-horse race meant that while the SP has gained, the BJP has managed to retain or better its vote share. While those who shifted away from the BJP were visible and voluble, those who stayed with or shifted towards the BJP remained silent. The India Today-Axis My India exit poll reports a massive advantage to the BJP among women voters. Most observers, including this writer, missed this major factor.

Also read: Beyond minor tweaks, BJP, SP, BSP are still following old caste, religion formulas in UP

Talk to voters
While I continue to believe and hope that the race is closer than predicted by the exit polls, I have one piece of advice for my friends. If the BJP wins this election, please don’t jump to conclusions about poll rigging. Not that the BJP is above such manipulation or that the Election Commission is in any position to withstand it. But in this instance, it is not about EVM rigging; it is about rigging the screen of our TV and smartphones. It is not booth capturing, but mindscape capturing, an effective capture of the moral and political commonsense.

This brings me to Philip Oldenburg, or Philip da as I call him, one of the most insightful though less celebrated scholars of Indian politics. In 1988 he wrote an article why most ‘political pundits’ and political activists failed to anticipate the Congress wave in the 1984 Lok Sabha election. His argument is very simple: a triad of political leaders, journalists and local informants keep speaking to one another about election trends and manufacture a consensus about the likely electoral outcome. The problem is that none of them deigns to speak to ordinary voters. This is what pollsters do and that is why they tend to get it right.

As I travelled through Uttar Pradesh across the last few weeks, this lesson came back to me again and again. I wish my friends would stop speaking to one another, stop listening to media noise and simply go out to speak to ordinary citizens. Our political challenge is to connect to and intervene into the shared moral and political commonsense of the voters. It is not too late to learn this lesson. We are still two years from 2024.

Yogendra Yadav is among the founders of Jai Kisan Andolan and Swaraj India. He tweets @_YogendraYadav. Views are personal.

(Edited by Prashant)

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 10 Mar 2022 01:15

chetak wrote:
Karan M wrote:
32% of women voters are stupid enough to vote for such a return of goonda Raj? Doubt the report.
maybe pressure from male family members voting for the goonda party

Caste and community comes before self interest. Muslims and Yadavs are firmly behind SP and that includes the women.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Mar 2022 01:20

All Indian media crooks have American Shukracharyas:

This brings me to Philip Oldenburg, or Philip da as I call him, one of the most insightful though less celebrated scholars of Indian politics.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Mar 2022 01:21

nachiket wrote:
chetak wrote:
maybe pressure from male family members voting for the goonda party
Caste and community comes before self interest. Muslims and Yadavs are firmly behind SP and that includes the women.

Also, most Yadavs know this is the last chance for SP. So lots of Yadav consolidation for SP.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 10 Mar 2022 01:57

ramana wrote:
nachiket wrote: Caste and community comes before self interest. Muslims and Yadavs are firmly behind SP and that includes the women.
Also, most Yadavs know this is the last chance for SP. So lots of Yadav consolidation for SP.

A very perceptive view - the USHV (United Spectrum of Hindu Vote - Dr.PP's term) thrust of BJP results in every splinter identity group going '<insert group name> khatre me hain'. It remains a potent divisive force.

The AAP's approach can be interpreted this way - an umbrella effort with a focused approach to identifying identity groups and targeting them, with a generous dollop of freebies to sugarcoat it.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Mar 2022 05:34

Two and half hours to go for counting to start.

Primus · Post by **Primus** » 10 Mar 2022 05:56

Where is the best coverage online to watch the results? Zee TV or News 18?

Starting at 8 AM IST, right?

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 10 Mar 2022 06:06

Primus wrote:Where is the best coverage online to watch the results? Zee TV or News 18?

Starting at 8 AM IST, right?

Republic TV

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Mar 2022 06:12

Primus wrote:Where is the best coverage online to watch the results? Zee TV or News 18?

Starting at 8 AM IST, right?

Doctorgaru,
We plan to watch a few channels: Republic, NDTV to see Shok Sabha, India TV (Hindi), and Twitter.

Will skip Doordarshan as they are slow as molasses in winter.

Will also monitor here as I can't let Dilbu down.

If you are on Telegram follow Newsarena channel.
They are BR lurkers.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Mar 2022 06:25

Example https://twitter.com/NewsArenaIndia/stat ... KlAfdiLKZw

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 10 Mar 2022 06:30

Another half hour before counting starts. Exciting and nervous. Dilbu - please be present!

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 10 Mar 2022 06:44

Yeah this is the real moment of truth. I don't put much faith in exit polls. All the polling agencies have been horribly wrong before in different elections. Usually one or two get it right but you can never tell which ones.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 10 Mar 2022 07:09

Arnab keeps emphasizing that he has almost 1000 people stationed at the counting locations, and gave a "100% guarantee" that his numbers will be the first correct ones...so Republic TV seems a good place to watch the results.

Ram naam japo, hari guna gaao.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 10 Mar 2022 07:20

Har ghar bhagwa chayega,
Yogi wapas aayega,
Ek hi nara, ek hi naam,
Jai Shri Ram, Jai Shri Ram

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 10 Mar 2022 07:50

Bhesh! kya baat hai.

Republic TV is doing a good job so far. They are showing visuals of the actual counting center, complete with the counting halls and the whiteboard outside the counting center on which the polling officials keep updating the results manually. Most people don't know how exactly the TV channels get their numbers.

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 10 Mar 2022 07:57

Some genius on rNdtv is claiming that there were larger crowds in ‘toti chors’ rally’s hence he does not believe exit polls

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 10 Mar 2022 08:01

BJP will lose onlee.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 10 Mar 2022 08:05

First leads from UP and UK to BJP!

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 10 Mar 2022 08:06

^^ Perfect timing

anishns · Post by **anishns** » 10 Mar 2022 08:16

Ardh shatak for Yogi! Dilbu another antijinx needed

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 10 Mar 2022 08:23

Sagarika Ghosh is on rNDTV. no hijab today ?

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 10 Mar 2022 08:28

^^Saggy ko pata hai ki aaj nanga hone ka din hai.

anishns · Post by **anishns** » 10 Mar 2022 08:30

Sagarika srinivas jain, prannoy roy & shekhar gupta on NDTV
Why is republic on steroids...it shows BJP at 94 in UP whereas NDTV only shows 9

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 10 Mar 2022 08:31

anishns wrote:Sagarika srinivas jain, prannoy roy & shekhar gupta on NDTV
Why is republic on steroids...it shows BJP at 94 in UP whereas NDTV only shows 9

who is that gora guy? did they bring someone from Ukraine ?

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 10 Mar 2022 08:35

BJP will lose onlee.

anishns · Post by **anishns** » 10 Mar 2022 08:42

Gora is from soros/ford foundation

Atmavik wrote:
anishns wrote:Sagarika srinivas jain, prannoy roy & shekhar gupta on NDTV
Why is republic on steroids...it shows BJP at 94 in UP whereas NDTV only shows 9
who is that gora guy? did they bring someone from Ukraine ?

anishns · Post by **anishns** » 10 Mar 2022 08:43

Congis leading in Punjab...AAP close behind

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 10 Mar 2022 08:55

Arnab is saying for UP, BJP will get 240-250. A lot of seats it won in 2017 with a +5 to +7% margin will go back to the SP.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 10 Mar 2022 08:59

One thing to note this time. Counting is going faster than in the past.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 10 Mar 2022 09:00

No way BJP will pass 300 seats in UP.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 10 Mar 2022 09:03

Mort Walker wrote:No way BJP will pass 300 seats in UP.

As long as they get a majority. That should be possible I think