Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 10 Mar 2022 21:02

Manipur has dealt the biggest surprise in my view. It might be a small state but the results their will echo through entire NE. Hats off the workers their.

rajkumar · Post by **rajkumar** » 10 Mar 2022 21:07

One very point being missed here. The complete disintegration of the BSP vote share and total consolidation of the SC/ST vote behind the BJP.

I can only hope no other castist party emerge in the north of India

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 10 Mar 2022 21:14

I’d been saying for months that ground level reports from UP clearly put Dalit and Women voters in BJP camp. Everyone is scared of the MY gundaraaj coming back.

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 10 Mar 2022 21:17

Congratulations to the people of Indian states for once again setting a shining example of the power of democracy.

Lost in the celebrations of Yogiji’s win is the other equally important BJP win with massive national security gains: this is the first time a truly patriotic party now rules Manipur with a simple majority. Congratulations to CM Biren Singh, may you get the recognition and accolades you so richly deserve!

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 10 Mar 2022 21:19

rajkumar wrote:One very point being missed here. The complete disintegration of the BSP vote share and total consolidation of the SC/ST vote behind the BJP.

I can only hope no other castist party emerge in the north of India

the jehadis have almost completely consolidated with the SP because they knew that this was, very likely, the SP's last chance

the BSP is trapped in a pincer and has been politically neutered due to the excesses of its leadership and her family

they need a non BJP govt at the center to break free of the choke hold by which time their vote banks would have almost completely disintegrated

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 10 Mar 2022 21:34

A Sharma wrote:Immediate impact of this win will be on President's election

My vote is for a second term to Shri Kovind

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 10 Mar 2022 21:43

vimal wrote:Manipur has dealt the biggest surprise in my view. It might be a small state but the results their will echo through entire NE. Hats off the workers their.

Manipur? Bheji were you expecting such an easy UK win?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 10 Mar 2022 21:47

Atmavik wrote:
A Sharma wrote:Immediate impact of this win will be on President's election

My vote is for a second term to Shri Kovind

there may be other obligations to pay off or recognize.

UP alone cannot hog all the attention

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 10 Mar 2022 22:08

Baikul wrote:
vimal wrote:Manipur has dealt the biggest surprise in my view. It might be a small state but the results their will echo through entire NE. Hats off the workers their.
Manipur? Bheji were you expecting such an easy UK win?

Look at the final numbers to see what i mean.
UP and UK were net loss for BJP.

Manipur and Goa were massive upswing for BJP which is an amazing achievement given Covid disruptions and incumbent government.
Manipur is also a border state so that makes it even more important.

UP UK

Goa Manipur

Unfortunately, news results of smaller states get swallowed up by the hype around larger states like UP.

I really hope BJP high command does something about the UK state BJP unit. Maybe get an outsider.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 10 Mar 2022 22:10

Dilbu wrote:BJP will lose onlee.

We could not have done it without you.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 10 Mar 2022 22:12

Baikul wrote:
vimal wrote:Manipur has dealt the biggest surprise in my view. It might be a small state but the results their will echo through entire NE. Hats off the workers their.
Manipur? Bheji were you expecting such an easy UK win?

Correct. Truly, UK was the biggest surprise. Getting the majority, but a sizable majority too. I did not expect the latter, and was hoping for the former.

Next was GA...also was a close race. Given BJP already has 20 seats + 3 indep + 2 MGP, I will not be surprised if more (especially INC) cross over in the floor test.

MN was not a big surprise. The goremint was widely acknowledged to have done good work. Opinion/exit polls also predicted a win. There was some rough weather with NPP (one of the NDA partners in parliament) just before the election. It remains to be seen if NPP and NPF join the goremint again (I think they will)...that would be a very solid 44/60 (more than 2/3rds) majority. And maybe the remaining 5 congis will also cross the floor.

UP was a foregone conclusion, only question was the size of the majority.

Finally, it's great that the vote share increased across the board....!

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 10 Mar 2022 22:23

The NDA allies (AD and Nishad) also did well...a pattern getting repeated everywhere in the country...i.e. if a small party behaves respectably in alliance with BJP, it prospers...but if not, it will get nowhere.

Nitishwa learned this the hard way and came back. Let's see about Chaudhary, Rajbhar, etc now. The SP also may face a turbulent and likely bleak future.

The M+Y combination has been an abject failure. Only implementation of Modi's "Sabka-X" approach has worked, with Hindutva actually becoming a part of that (e.g. Kashi corridor, hindu tourism circuit, etc). Very clever.

On to the remaining elections of 2022....HP and GJ. It will be interesting to see how much inroads AAP can make in grabbing the INC vote share. I do agree with the likes of Salim Yadav on this...for the next few years it will strengthen the BJP by splitting votes. I believe Modi has already flagged off the GJ campaign work yesterday.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Mar 2022 22:28

M-Y is now Modi-Yogi

greatde · Post by **greatde** » 10 Mar 2022 22:44

KL Dubey wrote: The M+Y combination has been an abject failure. Only implementation of Modi's "Sabka-X" approach has worked, with Hindutva actually becoming a part of that (e.g. Kashi corridor, hindu tourism circuit, etc). Very clever.

On to the remaining elections of 2022....HP and GJ. It will be interesting to see how much inroads AAP can make in grabbing the INC vote share. I do agree with the likes of Salim Yadav on this...for the next few years it will strengthen the BJP by splitting votes. I believe Modi has already flagged off the GJ campaign work yesterday.

The M + Y is very prevalent and the reason for SP seat rise. One has to thankful for the BJP grassroot workers for striving to bring voters to the booth. The voting % is the only way to beat it, else the dominant caste + M consolidation votes is the winner in any "boring" Indian elections. The charisma of Modi brings the josh and energy. BJP development, vikaas means nothing if one doesn't even come out to vote on election day.

AAP also takes away potential BJP voters, and a lot of new creative thinking is needed to counter them in long run.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 10 Mar 2022 22:56

Agree with greatde wrt MY combination.Folks are celebrating too early.
M is the fastest growing demographics in UP (and India). They openly buy property in UK and will be unbeatable in a few decades.
BJPs cow was saved by the Dalits this time.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 10 Mar 2022 23:21

greatde wrote:
The M + Y is very prevalent and the reason for SP seat rise. One has to thankful for the BJP grassroot workers for striving to bring voters to the booth. The voting % is the only way to beat it, else the dominant caste + M consolidation votes is the winner in any "boring" Indian elections. The charisma of Modi brings the josh and energy. BJP development, vikaas means nothing if one doesn't even come out to vote on election day.

I understand basics of electioneering. Let's get beyond that and go deeper.

M+Y used to work earlier because there was no consolidating factor for "non M+Y" votes. For a brief while, Advani's Hindutva push in 1990s brought consolidation, but it was not sustainable beyond 1998, and especially not in UP (due to the calculations of Mulayam et al).

Things are changing a lot. M+Y combination did not work in 2014, 2017, 2019, and neither in 2022. Consolidation on the basis of vikas (+ hindutva) is the reason. Modi and Yogi's charisma is built up because of their sustained work and clarity of purpose over decades, and not the other way round.

Yeah, it is obvious that if the BJP stops doing good work, M+Y can creep back. Nothing is permanent unless you sustain it. Even though the UP karyakartas this time are considered to have done a below-par job in several of the phases, people came out to vote without being reminded.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 10 Mar 2022 23:24

vimal wrote:Agree with greatde wrt MY combination.Folks are celebrating too early.
M is the fastest growing demographics in UP (and India). They openly buy property in UK and will be unbeatable in a few decades.
BJPs cow was saved by the Dalits this time.

These loose statements don't help much.

greatde · Post by **greatde** » 10 Mar 2022 23:42

KL Dubey wrote:
I understand basics of electioneering. Let's get beyond that and go deeper.

M+Y used to work earlier because there was no consolidating factor for "non M+Y" votes. For a brief while, Advani's Hindutva push in 1990s brought consolidation, but it was not sustainable beyond 1998, and especially not in UP (due to the calculations of Mulayam et al).

Things are changing a lot. M+Y combination did not work in 2014, 2017, 2019, and neither in 2022. Consolidation on the basis of vikas (+ hindutva) is the reason. Modi and Yogi's charisma is built up because of their sustained work and clarity of purpose over decades, and not the other way round.

Yeah, it is obvious that if the BJP stops doing good work, M+Y can creep back. Nothing is permanent unless you sustain it. Even though the UP karyakartas this time are considered to have done a below-par job in several of the phases, people came out to vote without being reminded.

The pattern can always changes in Indian politics so innovation is the key. Don't analyze and do same mistake, as Congress of getting stuck with past.

Of course, BJP is doing its own social consolidation but even the opposition is gathering new caste-based alliance. BJP won 2022 because emerging trend of Hindu woman are getting their own independent thinking, and don't need to follow their male members. Will the Muslim woman ever have that?

So getting them to the booth is the key, and thereby high voting percentage. Else the dominant caste + M can be the default winner

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 10 Mar 2022 23:47

BJP went through 3 CMs per term in Uttarakhand the last two times it came to power in the state, with Dhami losing his seat this time it will be interesting to see whom the party will choose to be the next CM. Uttarakhand is not a easy state to rule be it for BJP or for INC as both parties seem to suffer from plenty of infighting and incompetence, but it is also a very important state with huge potential so deserves someone who can bring a sense of development and stability.

SaPa's 45+ seat gain over last year has been through total consolidation of votes by muslims, yadavs and some misguided <25 yr old youths. INC's rout in the state shows that SaPa gained at INC's cost while BJP may have gained at BSP's cost. To break the M vote bank you ideally need parties like AIMIM to win a seat or two to show they are in serious contention.

In other news, former Khangress lackey and now full time twitter "intellect" Sanjay Jha is taking open shots at pappu maharaj. He wants Sachin Pilot to take the helm of the party.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 10 Mar 2022 23:48

Atmavik wrote:
A Sharma wrote:Immediate impact of this win will be on President's election

My vote is for a second term to Shri Kovind

It will either a SIKH or a Muslim. Keeping 2024 in mind. BJ P has big work to do in Punjab and seculars are to be pacified.Arif Sir is good candidate but I do not know of any descent Sikh politician who is retiring. Badal candidature may bring Akalis closer to BJP.But
his past is a heavy stone.JMT

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 10 Mar 2022 23:53

ok after all the serious discussion here is some

In a 403 seat UP Assembly, thats how
@INCUttarPradesh
can go to attend a session. Thanks to
@priyankagandhi
Ji.

#UPElectionResult2022 #UPElections2022 #AssemblyElectionResults2022

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 10 Mar 2022 23:55

rsingh wrote:
Atmavik wrote:

My vote is for a second term to Shri Kovind
It will either a SIKH or a Muslim. Keeping 2024 in mind. BJ P has big work to do in Punjab and seculars are to be pacified.Arif Sir is good candidate but I do not know of any descent Sikh politician who is retiring. Badal candidature may bring Akalis closer to BJP.But
his past is a heavy stone.JMT

How about Shri Tiny Dhillon ? Recently retired, good following.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 10 Mar 2022 23:55

vimal wrote:Agree with greatde wrt MY combination.Folks are celebrating too early.
M is the fastest growing demographics in UP (and India). They openly buy property in UK and will be unbeatable in a few decades.
BJPs cow was saved by the Dalits this time.

was it the BJP cow that dished out the rations across the country without even the faintest hint of a scandal or corruption

was it the BJP cow that that vaccinated countless millions for free

is it the BJP cow that is building infrastructure at a speed never before seen in this country

does the BJP cow discriminate against its country men , the jehadis have grabbed a lions share of the free houses built and the benefits disbursed

is it the BJP cow that is evacuating thousands of students

what makes you think that the BJP cow needs to be saved by any section of the population

It's doing great on its own

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 10 Mar 2022 23:57

Ambar wrote:BJP went through 3 CMs per term in Uttarakhand the last two times it came to power in the state, with Dhami losing his seat this time it will be interesting to see whom the party will choose to be the next CM. Uttarakhand is not a easy state to rule be it for BJP or for INC as both parties seem to suffer from plenty of infighting and incompetence, but it is also a very important state with huge potential so deserves someone who can bring a sense of development and stability.

SaPa's 45+ seat gain over last year has been through total consolidation of votes by muslims, yadavs and some misguided <25 yr old youths. INC's rout in the state shows that SaPa gained at INC's cost while BJP may have gained at BSP's cost. To break the M vote bank you ideally need parties like AIMIM to win a seat or two to show they are in serious contention.

In other news, former Khangress lackey and now full time twitter "intellect" Sanjay Jha is taking open shots at pappu maharaj. He wants Sachin Pilot to take the helm of the party.

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/the-ob ... unting-day

9. The reverses and scares that the BJP is facing in urban Uttar Pradesh seems to suggest that middle-class urban voter has her share of complaints with the BJP. While the state administration covered all bases in protecting the most vulnerable sections of the population from the Covid-19 pandemic and its aftermath, there is a possibility that the urban middle-class felt neglected in comparison.

very critical to address this ...

Engage younger kids with some interesting topics such as Mars landing, Hydrogen or electric car transition ... make it look cool ... make it look high goal

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 10 Mar 2022 23:59

Ambar wrote:BJP went through 3 CMs per term in Uttarakhand the last two times it came to power in the state, with Dhami losing his seat this time it will be interesting to see whom the party will choose to be the next CM. Uttarakhand is not a easy state to rule be it for BJP or for INC as both parties seem to suffer from plenty of infighting and incompetence, but it is also a very important state with huge potential so deserves someone who can bring a sense of development and stability.

SaPa's 45+ seat gain over last year has been through total consolidation of votes by muslims, yadavs and some misguided <25 yr old youths. INC's rout in the state shows that SaPa gained at INC's cost while BJP may have gained at BSP's cost. To break the M vote bank you ideally need parties like AIMIM to win a seat or two to show they are in serious contention.

In other news, former Khangress lackey and now full time twitter "intellect" Sanjay Jha is taking open shots at pappu maharaj. He wants Sachin Pilot to take the helm of the party.

can't help thinking that it would be better if this guy didn't get into any aircraft in the short to medium term

BijuShet · Post by **BijuShet** » 11 Mar 2022 00:01

chetak wrote:can't help thinking that it would be better if this guy didn't get into any aircraft in the short to medium term

Sir you forget his father passed away in a road accident so no cars either than for him

srikandan · Post by **srikandan** » 11 Mar 2022 00:01

vijayk: Engage younger kids with some interesting topics such as Mars exploration, Hydrogen or electric car transition ... make it look cool ... make it look high goal

Same audience targeted by Foreign social media companies -- foreign govts. will use social media to target indian kids, and if there is no local counter-narrative and SM gets a free run, there will be no good coming out of that situation. It is likely that Older Indians do not seek out new avenues of "information" actively from SM and other new avenues, as curiosity is higher for most people when younger.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 11 Mar 2022 00:02

Shekhar Gupta
@ShekharGupta

First takeaways from trends. The first is, AAP has risen as the “change” party of India. It is a fundamental new shift in national politics. Watch for their vote share in Gujarat later this year. A new planet has risen.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 11 Mar 2022 00:02

Is this a turning point in India's elections where development and good governance are valued above religion, caste and goonda power politics? I want to believe so.

I also noted several voters when interviewed, saying M & Y are corruption free since they have no one to pass ill gotten wealth to. And the contrary mistrust on dynastic parties and their leaders. So anti-parivaar vaad stance of BJP has actually worked ? I want to believe so as well.

Congratulations to Indian electorate !

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 11 Mar 2022 00:03

srikandan wrote:
Engage younger kids with some interesting topics such as Mars exploration, Hydrogen or electric car transition ... make it look cool ... make it look high goal
Same audience targeted by Foreign social media companies -- foreign govts. will use social media to target indian kids, and if there is no local counter-narrative and SM gets a free run, there will be no good coming out of that situation.

Agree ... Make KOO like UPI/RuPay ..
We need our own instagram/Twitter

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 11 Mar 2022 00:06

chetak wrote:
vimal wrote:Agree with greatde wrt MY combination.Folks are celebrating too early.
M is the fastest growing demographics in UP (and India). They openly buy property in UK and will be unbeatable in a few decades.
BJPs cow was saved by the Dalits this time.

what makes you think that the BJP cow needs to be saved by any section of the population

It's doing great on its own

Because it was saved by Dalits in UP.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 11 Mar 2022 00:07

Cyrano wrote:Is this a turning point in India's elections where development and good governance are valued above religion, caste and goonda power politics? I want to believe so. Congratulations to Indian electorate !

In a interview with a news channel sometime in 2016, Modi said it doesn't matter if the party wins or loses but the biggest change BJP has ushered into Indian politics post 2014 is that development is at the center of all political debates and narratives, he was absolutely spot on.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 11 Mar 2022 00:11

I think biggest challange for BJP is to sow the seeds of entrepreneurship among 10th pass population. We have to make right conditions for Home factories ( rise of Hong Kong). Make govt job less attractive. Facilitate training and loans to make real value added machines and not handcraft or sewing centers. Taiwan and Hong Kong used to have home factories for plastic toys nailcuters,flip flops,buttons,and other gadgets. That will bring down unemployment . Feel so bad while watching people trying to be a peon and waiting for 3 -4 years. How dumb people can be.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 11 Mar 2022 00:12

vijayk wrote:
srikandan wrote:
Same audience targeted by Foreign social media companies -- foreign govts. will use social media to target indian kids, and if there is no local counter-narrative and SM gets a free run, there will be no good coming out of that situation.
Agree ... Make KOO like UPI/RuPay ..
We need our own instagram/Twitter

Add YouTube to that.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 11 Mar 2022 00:22

People who keep worrying about SP getting +40 seats.

Last time SP gave 100 seats to CON party ... CON party has no organization. They could not win much of their seats due to poor selection/no org

This time PAPPU/PAPPINI followed WB model. Select candidates to hurt BJP everywhere. Kill your party to help SP. Modi has to lose ... That is their strategy.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 11 Mar 2022 00:22

rsingh wrote:
vijayk wrote:
Agree ... Make KOO like UPI/RuPay ..
We need our own instagram/Twitter
Add YouTube to that.

Only Ambani/Adani/Tatas together can do that with help of someone like Nandan Nilekani

We can do that but state needs to pitch in too

https://twitter.com/AstroKPJ/status/1501600400960638977

Dr. Karan Jani
@AstroKPJ
·
Mar 9
Replying to
@AstroKPJ
1a. India is beyond advanced now as a cashless society! From street vendors to shops in the mall, everyone, everywhere is using Google Pay (or something similar).

A sugarcane juice vendor on the Dandi beach gave me a look when the QR code scan failed as I didn't have it set up!
Dr. Karan Jani
@AstroKPJ
·
Mar 9
1b. Friends I grew up with rarely carry Rs. 200 with them on a daily basis. This is beyond a cultural shift. A few years ago this would have been impossible to imagine.

Just the sheer scale of digital payment literacy that has happened in India is beyond anywhere in West!

bala · Post by **bala** » 11 Mar 2022 00:28

we need to have our own alternates to the usual silicon valley services: OS, Android, Search, alternate to SWIFT, social media (inst/twtr/facebook/whatsapp), collect all transactions within india by retail outlets like amazon (a la FINRA), etc. The Indian Govt can seed fund these initiatives and allow Indian private companys to take it further. Manpower is available and maybe IITs, NITs etc can house the project incubation.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 11 Mar 2022 00:43

Ambar wrote:
Cyrano wrote:Is this a turning point in India's elections where development and good governance are valued above religion, caste and goonda power politics? I want to believe so. Congratulations to Indian electorate !
In a interview with a news channel sometime in 2016, Modi said it doesn't matter if the party wins or loses but the biggest change BJP has ushered into Indian politics post 2014 is that development is at the center of all political debates and narratives, he was absolutely spot on.

Saying that and staying steadfast on it are proofs of tremendous conviction and dedication!
Apna time aayega... apna time aagaya ?!

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 11 Mar 2022 01:07

Pray that Siddhu joins AAP next.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 11 Mar 2022 01:23

Big picture: the Indian opposition is not crushed beyond hope, but is completely fragmented.

Any fragment viable or dominant in state X is virtually nonexistent in state Y. AND would have to fight multiple, better-established rivals in order to compete in any given state Y.

What we see is a constellation of localized kshatrapas, each formidable on his/her own turf but none capable of challenging the Chakravartin. These kshatrapas however are all equally matched when it comes to competing with each other... too strong to displace at home, too weak to win broad victories outside. This is good, because they can be tempted/encouraged to waste their resources on competing with each other fruitlessly over small prizes (like in Tripura or Goa).

E.g. of kshatrapas: TMC (WB), AAP (NCR & Punjab), TRS (TG), YSRCP (AP), DMK (TN), CPIM (KL).

This is better than having an opposition of nation-wide organisational scale that is on the ropes today but could recover tomorrow (or whenever the govt makes a serious misstep). Pappu/Pappini are vital to ensure such an opposition never materialises.