India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

[Karan M]

Pratyush, agreed.

[Vidur]

Diploat or not his mission was to get India to do something its unwilling to do. Thats called diplomacy and he failed miserably at that and riled Indian people against his country.

In the ultimate analysis, what he accomplished or how Indian public responded to him is meaningless.

What matters is what is India going to do about it. Because, if the western led economic order is allowed to continue as is. Then it has an absolute capacity to crush our strategic options.

I am disappointed that the finance minister has not taken this opportunity to come up with a plan to replace the western owned payment gateways in India in a time-bound manner.

I am disappointed that the petroleum minister has not taken any opportunity to open negotiations with OPEC to try and buy oil in Indian rupees. Start with 25 %, but make the start.

Unless India decides to stand for itself, it can kiss it's political and strategic independence goodbye. This is the bottom line.

Ministers must be capable, empowered and focussed on a clear goal to do such things. That can only happen if there is no personality cult above them. Good leaders surround themselves with people better than them and let them take credit.

[chetak]

AGNI

it's what scares the piss out of xi and the CCP.

When dealing with a nuclear armed rival, ukraine has shown the reality of what all these sabre rattlers fear the most and that fear has been cruelly exposed by the tucked tail response of NATO and the US.

The battle hardened IA of today is not going to be a pushover as the cheeni well know, no matter what the global times military experts' think. The inevitable Indian blockade of the malacca straits by the IN will be a humiliating slap to the cheeni "face". The IAF dimension which was, inexplicably and also spinelessly, not brought into play in 1962 will now be a major fulcrum and an integral part of the response. The CDS structures now in place have added to the cheeni list of major headaches

The entire stalemate situation on the LAC that is now staring the PLA in the face has split the cheeni establishment vertically with one side of the cheeni fearing the AGNI response if red lines are crossed.

The repeat of the 1962 option was never again open to the cheeni. At the time, India was led by a cabal of traitorous scum and commie degenerates, both in and out of uniform.

where the cheeni still hold the decisive upper hand is in the vital media and cyber warfare space

In other words, your answer is escalation. India should escalate against a Chinese attack on LAC by retaliating in the Indian Ocean and as a last resort, nuclear posturing with Agni.

But how well would such an escalation go when we are under sanctions from the US bloc and the Kremlin isn't returning SJS's calls, let alone sending us spares or ammunition, because Xi has a gun to their head. (That is the scenario outlined in my post).

Not even the best trained and motivated armed forces can fight for long when equipment is stripped away by attrition, ammunition is exhausted, fuel is hard to secure, and nothing is being replaced by our suppliers. Add in the fact that in this scenario, our broader economy will also be reeling from multilateral sanctions by the West (unlike Putin, we won't have Xi to bail us out).

So yes, perhaps India's nuclear arsenal will be the first AND last deterrent against China if US sanctions India. But how effective a deterrent have India's nukes been against China's border actions since 2020? The Chinese seem to have calculated that we will never allow any response against border incursions to rise past the nuclear threshold.

one never said escalate, one only said that the required deterrence is already in place and those who need to take note have already done so.

The cheenis are publicly wailing that India has wilfully under declared the range of these missiles. That is also true.

All it does is that it simply takes off from the table, many "options" that the cheenis would have liked to retain

Both live in glass houses which they have built for very different reasons. Like a stiff prick, a thrown stone also has no conscience and it will secularly damage or destroy any glass house that it encounters.

Every time one more of the rapidly evolving AGNI series missile is tested, xi's randi rona begins all over again

Carry a big enough stick and they will have no option but to pause and reflect.

AGNI is that big stick

no need for India to do any विधवा विलाप, and go needlessly crying for help that will never be forthcoming.

we will fight alone but lets hope that the situstion will not come to that pass.

The search for a bigger stick will not stop anytime soon.

India has already escalated in a space where the cheeni have no control or even influence. Military escalation by India, on the LAC or in the Indian ocean region, will not only be a step down but also counter productive. We just need to match them, step for step

Just keep hammering away at the cheeni in the economic space using Indian laws and Indian sovereignty and don't give xi any room to manoeuvre

every time a cheeni app is banned in India, they lose that all important "face" in the global perception arena. Even the singapore route has been blocked off, teaching singapore a much needed and long delayed lesson on her limits when tangling with India. mauritius and singapore are financial drags on India, as far as the illegal flows of money are concerned.

xi never bargained for any of this. He simply assumed that it was going to be a walkover in ladakh with a cowering India petulantly retiring hurt and crying in the UN, bemoaning her fate.

xi was likely led to expect that Modi would be overthrown by a huge surge of shamed Indians who would rush to reinstall the la donna a capo di tutti i capi as the head, based on the writings of coupta and the madras mao tse tung as to how unpopular Modi was. and as usual, the servile sardar and the toadying babooze would mop up the rest before kissing xi's ring.

But not only did Modi prevail, but the Indian public stood behind him like a rock. When Modi got going, the cheeni had no counter. When he banned their apps and their telecom companies, they truly panicked.

The huge public hatred of the Indian aam aadmi for the cheenis have really unsettled the cheenis and left them bewildered.

The deterrence on the LAC for India is that the cheeni options of deployment of any long range delivery systems to target/interdict Indian troop concentrations at depth as well as those deployed at the FEBA is severely limited.

The cheeni doctrines seemingly have not factored in the changed CDS structures which has forced the stoopide babooze out of the border negotiations loop and have, as a result, brought in experienced battle hardened military experts with local operating expertise and in depth terrain appreciation relating to on ground vantage features and their consequences on the negotiations.

[Pratyush]

Chetak, you seem to be missing the argument entirely that there is considerable space between a limited conventional war and a nuclear exchange.

I would draw your attention to the Kargil war. Both India and TSP were nuke power's. Yet in a limited war India kicked TSP ass.

There's a reason for that. People on this thread are thinking how to avoid Indian getting it's ass kicked in the absence of external support.

In a way, India is where TSP was in 99. But we have self awareness that tells us what capability is required to prevent PRC doing to us. What India did to TSP during that war.

Nukes are meaningless to that equation.

[Mort Walker]

Has Eric Garceti actually been confirmed as an ambassador to India?

His nomination is at risk because as mayor of Poop Angeles he deliberately looked the other way when his direct aid engaged in gay sexual harassment. If there is a lawsuit coming from the victim, then I would say it is unlikely. Right now it looks like there will be senators from both parties who will vote against him. I would say 40% probability of him being confirmed, and Dem senators are asking the administration to select someone else.

[Mort Walker]

Sir if you are basing your assessment in part off of what's been posted on that twitter thread postulating an Indo Pak matchup all I will say is it was very optimistic and things, would likely not work out that way in a, real conflict. I have the deepest respect for the author and his professional assessment but things have moved pretty rapidly in the past few years.

Plus please do a neutral assessment of where China is today and the trend and you will quickly see we are already way behind and falling further behind every day.

Let me just bring the IAF to the table. We are at around 30 squadrons today. Assuming even a 70% sustained serviceability, a very high number, we can barely bring 21 squadrons to the fight against Pak or China. Let alone both. Add attrition thanks to our relative paucity of high end munitions unlike the Western AF and that means low level attacks will occur as will dumb bomb ones, and our vulnerability to high end SAM systems will rise by a huge amount. The sheer disinterest in arming the IAF is also evident from the fact we have a, mere 5 AEW&CS to face a two front threat. Around double that number are present with Pak alone, more than that with China. We lack IFR beyond 6 over stressed assets. In short the number of either us not enough to run sustained ops over two sectors let alone entire borders. For instance it takes three AEW&CS to maintain constant coverage over one sector without even considering mechanical failure or attrition. Now consider what a joke a five strong fleet is for our requirements and the follow on DRDO program for 6 platforms is also limited and further away given the program was launched so late. We don't show any seriousness in either imports or domestic replacement either. Our 6 IFR fleet is barely enough to run a few sector level ops. Now add serviceability to the mix.

The sheer nonchalance with which the budget shortfall has been taken is visible by the fact that years after induction, the DRDO EW suite for the MiG-29s was just ordered. We couldn't afford it despite the fact it was ready a couple of years back itself and the manufacturer was awaiting orders. No country would send its premier AD fighters up without EW. We did so, for years on end because we couldn't ge bothered to find 1400 Cr for saving assets and lives far more valuable.

Even now the Su-30 upgrade hasn't been progressed. The bulk of our fleet is at best parity with PRC gear and in the conservative case, has fallen behind their newer inductions (easily a hundred plus). Neither the GOI nor the IAF saw it fit to progress the indigenous radar upgrade with any seriousness. Uttam, an AESA radar developed on a shoestring budget by DRDO, which is then mocked for delays, is yet to be developed further for the Su30, IAF says they may think of it. In any other country such a shambolic treatment of its own R&D capability would be grounds for a thorough overhaul. Here, we are still talky talk with no firm road map or orders placed.

Plus, sadly, this Govt doesn't seem to want to spend a dime extra on hitech of any sort beyond re-juggling already scarce budgets between public and pvt sectors. Where is the jet engine program to reaplace the GE engines on the Tejas? Till they aren't reached, the IAF will remain wary of dependence on a fighter that can be grounded at Washingtons diktat.

The mere 36 Rafales are literally a drop in the bucket vs the PLAAF and PAF fighter fleet and highly vulnerable to decapitation strikes given only 2 AFB can handle them. If we miraculously save the airframes, precision CM/BM attacks will devastate the support infra. We neither funded the DRDO BMD system in time to accelerate it, nor did we purchase enough S400s. A mere 5 cannot protect us against both air and missile attacks.

Add to this the delay in placing Tejas orders, again budgetary indicating GOI disinterest. The line will be idle, IAF will receive trickle feed inductions till ramp up. No clear orders for Mk2 either.

And we are relying on five squadrons of Jaguars for which we are already running behind countries to get already hard to find spares.

This is the state of affairs after electing a nationalist Govt.

Limited interest in hard power beyond doing the basics like filling ammo reserves and streamlining processes. Our top talent has been put in the social justice programs whereas the programs that accelerate national growth like technology development are ignored. Without the latter, there will be no former. One can't run on services, taxing the middle class or the PLI type schemes alone. We are critically dependent on tech from abroad and wont even back the winners like DRDO's missile, sensor complex or fix the gaps (propulsion, metallurgy) or semiconductors (IISCs mere Rs 2.5K GaN proposal has been kicked down the road to the new ISEM plan). We seem to think the Govt only exists for facilitating trade/business/dhandho and running social service. More pragmatic Govts like France/Israel fund their MIC and derive industry/society wide benefits from exporting denied items like thermal imaging detectors (state funded R&D available to domestic suppliers alone).

Since we are already in plain speaking mode, let me bring in the Army - most Indian tanks lack the ammunition to face off against higher end PRC gear. Its to our limited advantage the terrain prevents them from bringing their armor superiority to bear vs the bulk of our fleet, the obsolete T-72s. Their armor is weak, their guns obsolete.

Even against Pakistan they'd struggle against the T-80U, Al Khalid and the new MBT they just imported. Yes Chinese gear is usually of lower reliability etc but to count on that to always be the case is unwise (from our perspective).

We've fallen behind in loitering ammunition and advanced ATGMs too while the IA wasted everyone's time forcing the Nag through hoop after hoop ignoring its potential in the NE sector where ambient temperatures wouldn't stress its advanced seeker.

When it comes to AD, we've been desperate to even import VSHORADS and thanks to our broken processes were only willing to import the obsolete Igla S which the Russians are dropping. Merely because otherwise we'd have to retender.

Our procurement process mitigating against single vendor deals is totally broken. Nor are the services able to stipulate truly functional or modern requirements. The Ukrainians fighting the Russians today have better anti tank, anti aircraft gear in several cases, than we do. What's hilarious is domestic gear is stuck in endless trials whole we spend all our budget on emergency imports and GOI moves those amounts to the next fiscal, limiting Capex even more.

In artillery, the Pakistanis actually outmatch us in SPHs after picking up hand me down Italian units. We as usual penny pinched and bought a, mere 100 K9s and have acted as if we've arrived. The less said about the rest the better. In tube artillery, the ATAGS saga needs no elaboration.

The services have become adept at setting PSQRs which set off DRDO and its partners on a wild goose chase then to set GSQRs which were different enough to add years to the program and then ask for imports as stop gap measure. Now it's supposedly being changed but even so the legacy programs continue to be moneyed around with. No pvt firm would put up with the abuse DRDO has suffered and the DPSUs bar BEL, HAL don't even have significant R&D budgets or leeway to spend on it, focused as they are on returning dividends to the GOI.

I'll put just one last number here because its food for thought. In 2019, PLAAF had 600 4th gen fighters (IAF today has around 420). By 2021, US Intel estimated the number was 800-1100. Let's just think on that a minute. These are advanced fighters alone. Not IFR, nor sensors, nor EW. If we don't want to bankrupt ourselves and merely wish to deter, we have to wake up and fix our gaps. Now please consider how ridiculous our tom tomming about 36 Rafales appeared to such an adversary. And the only saving grace is China's focus on SCS. But they are now creating the infra to reposition their assets double quick. Here, thanks to budget shortfalls, IAF was struggling to build HAS.

Either ways we've fallen significantly behind the combined firepower of our adversaries and sooner or later, they may well choose to risk a conflict despite the damage they'd take from us in the process.

We have a long list there which I spent considerable time figuring out. The answers are also there but GOI seems to have no interest in pursuing straightforward answers.

We need to accelerate our domestic programs (would cost relative peanuts) and order existing gear on a priority basis. But it seems tokenism is the order of the day especially at the forces procurement level itself (buy a few hundred fancy items and consider it enough). Whereas it isn't.

I could go into more detail about our vulnerabilities but would prefer not to, on an open forum. I could mail you the details offline if you prefer. Either ways, IMHO, the situation has long become one of the gravest urgency.

Thank you for your post and keep posting. Thankfully you're a moderator and anyone else would have been promptly banned.

[kit]

https://www.livemint.com/economy/theres ... 64467.html

India’s stand is that Russia stood by India in the past and India supports resolving the crisis through diplomacy. It’s alright to argue that the US considers a democratic India to be its potential ally in its superpower rivalry with China, and therefore, the revival of rupee-ruble denominated trade, essentially to help Russia bypass the dollar-based global financial and trade system, and work around the sanctions, doesn’t sit well with the building of trust with the US. But the argument ought to run both ways. In 2013, at the peak of the taper tantrums, the Reserve Bank of India reached out to the US Federal Reserve for a rupee-dollar swap—as dollar investments pulled out of India, triggered by the US central bank’s policies, sinking the rupee to its life-low (at the time)—but never heard back at all.

[Karan M]

Thank you for your post and keep posting. Thankfully you're a moderator and anyone else would have been promptly banned.

Thanks Mort but nobody would be banned for a fact based post. It's where people postulate opinions as fact and get into name-calling "XYZ are traitors, shoot them" that's where moderator action comes into play.

[chetak]

Chetak, you seem to be missing the argument entirely that there is considerable space between a limited conventional war and a nuclear exchange.

I would draw your attention to the Kargil war. Both India and TSP were nuke power's. Yet in a limited war India kicked TSP ass.

There's a reason for that. People on this thread are thinking how to avoid Indian getting it's ass kicked in the absence of external support.

In a way, India is where TSP was in 99. But we have self awareness that tells us what capability is required to prevent PRC doing to us. What India did to TSP during that war.

Nukes are meaningless to that equation.

The pakis can afford to lose. its in their DNA

xi just cannot be seen as losing, especially now and to a country and people that they see as an inferior power and civilization

even a bloody nose like they got in galwan will not sit well with these sons of heaven so fighting under the nuke threshold is not an option.

xi and his PLA will fight only when unqualified victory is assured and they will need paki help.

this unqualified victory is not going to happen with a country like India

so this constant harping on war and people coming to "help" is not realistic, never mind this oft repeated hoary chestnut: "there is considerable space between a limited conventional war and a nuclear exchange."

there is only limited space that is filled with state actors and terrorism. India and pak have considerable expertise in reading these unspoken red line signals during wartime and so they each know where the other's red lines are

the cheenis do not know or even much understand this redline "theory" in practice and nor does India have that much expertise in the cheeni methodology of laying out their "red lines", so a mistake is very easy to make and so is a rapid climb, up the escalatory ladder, is a given.

If any fighting was going to take place, it would have happened by now

After sitting on those icy, arid, and inhospitable wastes for a year, the hans know that they just cannot hack it. The sly way in which the cheeni envelopment in ladakh took place shows that they had it all planned out at their end. and what spiked them in the end was that India simply did not play out the part scripted for it by the hans. This is the example military planning by the great sons of heaven from the middle kingdom. In frustration, galwan followed, and now India's positions have hardened beyond repair. Both xi's and the PLA's "face" is in the dustbin, with modi rubbing it in, every few months or so.

The cheeni caused industrial unrest in bangalore and madras and the ED struck rapidly, unearthing trails of hawala transfers, money laundering and fraudulent accounting in two cheeni mobile phone companies and levying massive fines.

The IA has, in the meanwhile, reinforced and dug in and with every intention to stay for the long haul

if they push India too hard, the red lines may well be crossed at much lower thresholds, maybe with new fronts being opened up by India in tibet

if the hans launched an all out missile based strike, they may well touch off an escalation that will be self sustaining and they know this

In case of any misadventure against India, china's harsh treatment of many countries in the past will unleash a blowback that will hit them economically.

at the end, India may well land up as a full UNSC member, complete with veto, with the others over ruling the cheenis and also membership in nuclear supplier's group

people are already asking why should china be allowed to dominate the world, what great schitt do they bring to the world that people have not already seen before

if hitler's (white and rome supported) jackboot was unpopular and resulted in such a violent blowback, will xi's jackboot be any more welcome...

this middle kingdom crap, century of humiliation and sons of heaven BS is not going to sell too well.

Indians may well get their butts kicked but the cheeni will not escape unscathed and will come out of it, badly mauled and very much the worse for wear, reputation destroyed and their imagined capabilities for war shown up for what it actually is

If people in this forum are thinking that some one will come to help us, otherwise we should just roll over and die should quit the forum

when push comes to shove, NO ONE WILL COME TO OUR HELP and we just have to gird our loins and get ready to take them on, threshold or no threshold, escalation or no escalation, dhoti shivering or no dhoti shivering.

We may not win but certainly, we will also not lose and that is exactly what scares xi, his PLA and their civilizations much vaunted "face"

They have learned their lessons from the Nathu La and Cho La clashes that left their PLA reeling and so they did not enter the war in 1971, despite the two fags nixon and kissinger egging them on. They know for sure that the IA can fight better than them at close quarters and out wit them tactically and strategically. in a variety of terrains and all in hostile environmental conditions.

if xi burns his boats with India, a lot of things will change permanently for the cheenis as well as the pakis and all of it will not be for the good either

[bala]

What matters is what is India going to do about it. Because, if the western led economic order is allowed to continue as is. Then it has an absolute capacity to crush our strategic options.

I am disappointed that the finance minister has not taken this opportunity to come up with a plan to replace the western owned payment gateways in India in a time-bound manner.

I am disappointed that the petroleum minister has not taken any opportunity to open negotiations with OPEC to try and buy oil in Indian rupees. Start with 25 %, but make the start.

Unless India decides to stand for itself, it can kiss it's political and strategic independence goodbye. This is the bottom line.

Agreed. I am also concerned after the Uki-Rus tussle, brought about by the US Deep State (Ruthless, heartless, scheming bunch) using NATO as a disguise, have exposed how vulnerable the rest of the world really is. Payments, import/export, tools that we take for granted in IT (e.g. internet connection, search Google, facebook's whatsapp, Google play for Android, operating system, database systems, enterprise solutions), settlement of Forex, imports of Videshi maal are all built on shaky foundations. If GOI does not address these issues I am afraid we are in for subjugation of the colonial kind once again. We need a national program that can come up with alternates, we have all the talent in place to make it happen, just some vision, some funding and national laws to make them mandatory for India. Thambis Pitchai, Nadella, Krishna and other US Desi leaders when they retire can help in this endeavor. Phone communication is simply too important. No more appeasement nor just enough development we need to leapfrog ourselves with a total lack of faith in global systems (since they are subject to Sanctions). Complete Desi systems that we can use and have the rest of the world induct on a mutual basis. We see some movement in UPI in other nations like Nepal. But we need to tie up with Russia and other countries and declare independence from US based solutions. Going back to gold back securities for Banking is very important.

[Mort Walker]

Thank you for your post and keep posting. Thankfully you're a moderator and anyone else would have been promptly banned.

Thanks Mort but nobody would be banned for a fact based post. It's where people postulate opinions as fact and get into name-calling "XYZ are traitors, shoot them" that's where moderator action comes into play.

Have you or anyone tried contacting the Raksha Mantri’s office even the PMO and Fin Min (who was Def Min prior) to bring attention to this? I’m not saying they don’t know of the problem, but developments in China, Pak, Russia and US are very concerning. Atmanirbhar needs to get pushed harder with more funding with a separate CAPEX item in the budget.

[Cyrano]

I'm afraid there could be some gyan like "arming ourselves to the teeth will only increase the threat perception of China and Pak and compel them to increase subversive activities and China will still go one better to remain unmatchable, so whats the point?" at different levels in the Indian establishment. That would be very hard to change.

Its the same kind of thinking that left border infra in pathetic conditions "so as to not provoke the Chinese and make in less interesting to cross LAC because going further wont be easy on bad roads". It took Pangong Tso and Galwan to completely come out of it.

[Cain Marko]

I've rarely seen reasons for RnD on BRF. But Karan saar's post did it...I'm officially in RnD mode GOI and services procurement policies have been painfully lax and negligent, both of desi and phoren maal. Hack thoo!

[Mort Walker]

Cryin’ Chucky has declared defeat in the senate! Garcetti is NOT going to India and must remain in Poop Angeles. Hopefully he isn’t replaced with Dick Verma or Daleep Singh type.

[Mukhi]

Sir ….. please do a neutral assessment of where China is today and the trend and you will quickly see we are already way behind and falling further behind every day.

Let me just bring the IAF to the table. We are at around 30 squadrons today. Assuming even a 70% , IMHO, the situation has long become one of the gravest urgency.[/quote]

Karan Saar.

If you accept that the present government is much more nationalistic then the previous 10 Years of Sonia Meano, then few Point(s) to consider.

The day NaMo takes over, Chinks are already 13-14 T economy with many high priority defense programs in various stages of R&D to on its way of production. Indian GDP at the time of 2014 is barely 1-2 T. Today, the Chinks GDP is nearly 17 - 18 T where as we are between 3-4.

Then consider all the landmines, be it in form of appointing likes of Shashikant Sharmas of the world to RRRs or the financial burden that were kicked down the road, greeting NaMo at the door and at every corner of the path.

Just as India was getting stabilized, the COVID impact can not be ignored. Now, at this point, Chinks are already rich and with very stable bank balance to absorb such hits. Where as we were poor to begin with, then we lost quite a bit we could have, so today, financially, we are no better than where we were when NaMo took over. Its is as if, NaMo got bloody nose and broken arm Where as, for Chinks, the impact is just a scratch.

And now consider the amount of investment being made in infrastructure. We only have finite amount of money to play with. What does a Nationalistic government do when they have to choose between A to Z. Prioritize. And the priority is to get the economy going so that we can afford to order 160 LCA and 150 LACs.

The level of progress expected from a Democratic country vs totalitarian gov is just a pipe dream. In anything, from building roads to power lines, the speed of work completion will be atlease twice as fast if not more for the totalitarian gov that is in China.

I understand the need to have a strong army is now, but practically its not possible to laugh and eat at the same time. Could some decisions be better, for sure. But may be marginally.

[Karan M]

Sirji, the focus on execution for social justice stuff is 10x more than that on industrial policies and stuff like defense. That's the issue. There is also a definite desire to somehow balance the books at all costs ie low deficit while finding the funds for politically expedient reasons.

It's not a question of the size of the economy alone, the issue is our Govt simply doesn't give credence to technology development as a high priority for a nation our size vis a vis China which made it a priority even when it was our economic size.

That's why they are where they are today. And unless we change tack we won't match them.

As has been remarked, excuses, of democracy vs authoritarian states etc., only ensure the Govt continues on its merry way without fixing obvious flaws in its approach.

Coming to infra, even there take a, look at any Indian metro /tier
1 city which is an economic engine including those under BJP ruled states and ask if BJPs rule has made them world class. No, unfortunately it hasn't. Corruption at state level remains mind boggling under BJP rule. Infra remains mostly abysmal. We continue to attract investment by virtue of inertia in these cities but that's about it.

NaMo/BJPs almost entire governance focus has been on the rural poor, social justice for the first term. In the second, we are seeing some positive moves - PLI, Gati Shakti etc but there is a complete and total reluctance to spend on anything that appears too bourgeois for lack of a better term.

Even the booster vaxx program was delayed to the point of being a pyrrhic success while Omicron has ravaged families galore. One would've thought that after the utter hash the government made of wave 2 preparation and governance, they'd have learned their lesson, but no. I was utterly shocked and still am at how much they've taken the issue for granted.

Just ask how many ppl fell sick during the third wave because of a, lack of timely boosters and the number of elderly ppl affected. Has this Govt, that *we* voted for, demonstrated accountability on this most basic of issues?

The real issue is this. The BJP has begun to ignore the urban areas, the middle class and even higher end aspirations under the belief that sops, basic infra /PLI and cultural gains (the occasional cultural issue/ visit here, there) will win it elections in perpetuity.

Meanwhile a lot of the high end functions are being ignored. It's seven years now and well intentioned supporters should push the Govt to be more inclusive of all aspirations, not be a poverterian oriented, socialist with better delivery sort of setup alone.

Its telling that after seven years we now have the aatmanirbharta campaign. The first five years were wasted in letting the PRC run roughshod over our mfg in the belief that free access to our market would temper their approach to us. Its this sort of ad hoc policy making that I hope changes and we come up with a decadal plan to address our weaknesses and be the next US or China at least. Not just focus on the social justice stuff. That's also essential and while it builds one aspect of our national capacity, we can't afford to ignore the rest either.

The Rafale deal alone cost 70% of the Jal Shakti program, imagine that amount eqvt being spent in India thanks to the Tejas Mk2 and AMCA programs. But we don't seem to want to spend on these programs to accelerate them either. The engine program is yet to be funded. And without that the AMCA is going nowhere. Without a GaN fab, our future telecom and defense aspirations go nowhere.

And this is the part that needs to change. I am not even bringing in the other policy fiascos like the casteism, the internal natsec chaos thanks to electoral appeasement and the manner in which BJP karyakartas themselves are being attacked. Even ignoring all that, there are so many basic issues that aren't being addressed.

Have we demonstrated anywhere near the kind of governance that would ensure we can weather sanctions like Russia is doing? Or come up with a plan that makes us an industrial power in say a decades time in an organized fashion? Clearly not, because we don't want to spend a dime and will balance the books, yet we will find money for a statue at $400 Mn and the IT cell crowd calls it a masterstroke. Whereas a GaN fab costing lesser is unfunded.

[Pratyush]

This thread has become truly derailed. Thanks to the efforts of a few posters. Including this one.

However, the issues that Karan and Vidur are discussing are extremely relevant.

I understand that the government of India cannot make public the discussion about what it plans to do about the strangle hold of western systems over developing world.

I am afraid we are left to stew in our anxieties about the future course of action of the nation. Which is what we are seeing on this thread.

The secondary issue is the development of sufficient domestic industrial capacity to generate growth and employment for the youth of the nation. India has 30 states with chief ministers who have to pull together in the direction which increases industrial activities. We are not really seeing chief ministers pushing for industrial development in state's. This is the biggest problem in our current state of development.

The no import lists published by MOD is a step in the right direction. But unless the defense minister takes a public stand about no more imports of complete weapon systems. With an immediate effect, I am afraid not much will be accomplished.


Again this is OT to the thread.

[vijayk]

This thread has become truly derailed. Thanks to the efforts of a few posters. Including this one.

However, the issues that Karan and Vidur are discussing are extremely relevant.

I understand that the government of India cannot make public the discussion about what it plans to do about the strangle hold of western systems over developing world.

I am afraid we are left to stew in our anxieties about the future course of action of the nation. Which is what we are seeing on this thread.

The secondary issue is the development of sufficient domestic industrial capacity to generate growth and employment for the youth of the nation. India has 30 states with chief ministers who have to pull together in the direction which increases industrial activities. We are not really seeing chief ministers pushing for industrial development in state's. This is the biggest problem in our current state of development.

The no import lists published by MOD is a step in the right direction. But unless the defense minister takes a public stand about no more imports of complete weapon systems. With an immediate effect, I am afraid not much will be accomplished.


Again this is OT to the thread.

Exactly ... Even if the Govt. has plans, they don't want to reveal anything ...

We indulge in bashing Govt on every thing for not doing all these things yesterday ...

[vijayk]

Cryin’ Chucky has declared defeat in the senate! Garcetti is NOT going to India and must remain in Poop Angeles. Hopefully he isn’t replaced with Dick Verma or Daleep Singh type.

Most likely that's what will happen looking at the demented executive ... He is being guided by State Dept on everything ... He does not know who is VP or First lady or whether Michelle Obama was VP or he was VP ...

[Mort Walker]

For the most part, Blinken has been quiet and diplomatic and perhaps he may get a say in to who will be the US ambassador to India. The problem is that the Xiden administration may have put in woke leadership at DoS including civil service senior executives. It is evidenced by DoS issuing gender X passports.

[Karan M]

This thread has become truly derailed. Thanks to the efforts of a few posters. Including this one.

However, the issues that Karan and Vidur are discussing are extremely relevant.

I understand that the government of India cannot make public the discussion about what it plans to do about the strangle hold of western systems over developing world.

I am afraid we are left to stew in our anxieties about the future course of action of the nation. Which is what we are seeing on this thread.

The secondary issue is the development of sufficient domestic industrial capacity to generate growth and employment for the youth of the nation. India has 30 states with chief ministers who have to pull together in the direction which increases industrial activities. We are not really seeing chief ministers pushing for industrial development in state's. This is the biggest problem in our current state of development.

The no import lists published by MOD is a step in the right direction. But unless the defense minister takes a public stand about no more imports of complete weapon systems. With an immediate effect, I am afraid not much will be accomplished.


Again this is OT to the thread.

OT true and i will stop here.

If we want imports to stop then we should have ready alternatives.

If we are unwilling to spend more than the bare minimum on R&D and import substitution, as we are doing now, we wont have what we want.

So we have a nice situation. Slow devpt as scarce funds are split between programs. Delayed results. Capability gaps. Services ask for imports. Limited budget means even those comecin very few numbers. No funds left to order even thd desi gear that has been developed.

This is the situation today.

[Cain Marko]

If we are unwilling to spend more than the bare minimum on R&D and import substitution, as we are doing now, we wont have what we want.

What makes it a lot worse is that the negligence of R&D is often excused by urgent procurement needs, which btw are never done in a timely fashion - and are subject to huge price increases when they are finally signed for! All in all, a totally effed situation. End result - na ghar ke, na ghat ke (piecemeal acquisitions with poorly developed MIC).

[Manish_Sharma]

TWITTER

Israel is close to both Russia & US

US allies with Saudi & Israel

Saudi broke ties with Qatar in 2017, but largest US military base in Middle East is in Qatar

Make no mistake

Anyone who says India cannot be close allies with both Russia & USA is lobbyist with vested interest

https://twitter.com/AbhishBanerj/status ... A1Ygw&s=19

[VinodTK]

Scoop: Team Schumer voices doubts about Garcetti’s chances for India

Hans Nichols
Sun, April 3, 2022, 4:51 PM
Chuck Schumer’s team is privately acknowledging to Senate Democrats that Eric Garcetti doesn’t currently have 50 votes within their caucus to be confirmed as ambassador to India, congressional aides tell Axios.

Why it matters: The comments by the Senate majority leader’s office, delivered Wednesday through his legislative director during a call with other LDs, mean the Los Angeles mayor is unlikely to receive a floor vote any time soon. Garcetti was formally nominated eight months ago.

Stay on top of the latest market trends and economic insights with Axios Markets. Subscribe for free

The comments also indicate the growing concern — and confusion — within the Democratic Party about the fate of President Biden’s nominee to serve as ambassador to a crucial country resisting the administration’s efforts to get tougher on Russia.

The cold math of a 50-50 Senate may force Biden to pull Garcetti’s nomination and find another candidate who can be seated as his envoy to the world’s largest democracy.

The delay has also created leadership uncertainty for the nation's second-largest city and its 4 million residents.

Driving the news: Schumer’s team was asked about the timing of a possible Garcetti vote during a weekly call designed to provide a big-picture issues overview to Senate offices.

The staffer's comments were based on the public indications from some Democratic senators — a number of whom have said they want more information about allegations of workplace sexual harassment before supporting Garcetti.

At this time, Schumer’s office is not formally “whipping” the vote — asking senators how they plan to vote.

The comments were made before Axios reported Thursday that Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) had “concerns” about the allegations.

That brought the public number of wavering Democratic senators to five.

A spokesperson for Schumer declined to comment to Axios about the call contents.

The big picture: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) has placed a “hold” on Garcetti’s nomination, pending his own independent investigations into the allegations. Sen. Joni Ernest (R-Iowa) has placed a second hold on the nomination.

Grassley told the Los Angeles Times he doesn’t expect to be finished with his investigation when the Senate returns from Easter recess on April 25, giving an outside group, Whistleblower Aid, more time to meet with senators from both parties.

The core of the allegations stems from a lawsuit filed by Los Angeles Police Department officer Matthew Garza, who claimed that Rick Jacobs, while the mayor’s deputy chief of staff, sexually harassed him.

Jacobs has denied the allegations and Garcetti has denied being aware of them.

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee looked into the allegations and concluded Garcetti had been truthful in a legal deposition during which he denied any knowledge.

Garcetti’s nomination was voted out of committee in January without Republican opposition.

On March 25, a State Department official briefed Senate chiefs of staff, explaining the allegations had been investigated by the department and the committee and they determined Garcetti didn’t know about the alleged behavior.

Between the lines: A former Garcetti communications director, Naomi Seligman, continues to arrange meetings with Democratic offices, alleging she also was a victim of harassment from Jacobs.

Meanwhile, a different Garcetti aide wrote to senators last Monday, questioning Seligman’s account, Politico reported.

[ramana]

Karan,
There is no point in increasing allocation for IAF. They will rush to buy the most expensive planes even if they are very few. And don't care for weapons only platforms. Example Hammer acquisition was an afterthought. Despite the dance in the sky after Balakot has no interest in integrating Astra on Tejas.
Another Chief's term wasted.*

So we are at this impasse.

* A chief should make his decision based on service needs and inputs.
All chiefs seem to be beholden to inputs from outside and don't care for service needs.

[Karan M]

Sir then the MOD has to assign where the money has to be spent. Time for soft measures is over and we can't let their mistakes or errors dog their own and the nations strategic needs. I mean we were procuring R-27s in this day and age from Ukraine as versus Astra procurement and expediting Mk2. Also the funds have to be made available to expedite the Astra Mk2 and the Mk3, ie the SFDR program.

[Mort Walker]

Karan,
There is no point in increasing allocation for IAF. They will rush to buy the most expensive planes even if they are very few. And don't care for weapons only platforms. Example Hammer acquisition was an afterthought. Despite the dance in the sky after Balakot has no interest in integrating Astra on Tejas.
Another Chief's term wasted.*

So we are at this impasse.

* A chief should make his decision based on service needs and inputs.
All chiefs seem to be beholden to inputs from outside and don't care for service needs.

It does seem like sanctions on Russia and their ability to deliver will force domestic acquisitions as there are no other viable economic alternatives.

[vimal]

It does seem like sanctions on Russia and their ability to deliver will force domestic acquisitions as there are no other viable economic alternatives.

Not until Unkil, NATO, Israel, South Africa and others slap complete arms embargo on India.

[chetak]

Karan,
There is no point in increasing allocation for IAF. They will rush to buy the most expensive planes even if they are very few. And don't care for weapons only platforms. Example Hammer acquisition was an afterthought. Despite the dance in the sky after Balakot has no interest in integrating Astra on Tejas.
Another Chief's term wasted.*

So we are at this impasse.

* A chief should make his decision based on service needs and inputs.
All chiefs seem to be beholden to inputs from outside and don't care for service needs.

It does seem like sanctions on Russia and their ability to deliver will force domestic acquisitions as there are no other viable economic alternatives.

ukraine has landed in a mess

putin has targeted and destroyed most of ukraine's weapon and military systems' production facilities thus knocking out their ability to compete with russia in the military export market

[sanjaykumar]

Wasn’t there Nadia sourcing marine gas turbines and also a high thrust rocket engine from Ukraine?

[Pratyush]

Sir then the MOD has to assign where the money has to be spent. Time for soft measures is over and we can't let their mistakes or errors dog their own and the nations strategic needs. I mean we were procuring R-27s in this day and age from Ukraine as versus Astra procurement and expediting Mk2. Also the funds have to be made available to expedite the Astra Mk2 and the Mk3, ie the SFDR program.

Karan, agreed.

One of the reasons I advocate a complete ban on imported weapons is as follows.

The services always say that the the GOI doesn't understand the defense needs of the nation and that we will make do with what we have.

Import gives an easy way out to the services in terms of making do with what we have.

A blanket ban should compel the services in terms of finding work arround and figuring out how to make the domestic industrial capacity work for our needs.

Today, with the exception of jet engines and microprocessors. Indian industry has capacity to meet all requirements of the services.

It's time that they are compelled to deploy such domestic industrial capacity.

The advantage of this will be that the rupee spent in India will go a long way in building domestic industrial capacity.

The argument that a domestic private sector supplier can go bankrupt. Is a false one. Because, if orders are placed on a timely basis then the company will remain in business. Let the MOD worry about the preservation of domestic industrial capacity. This will also have the benefit of increasing the speed of decision making.

[rsingh]

Buying weapon or at least pretending to look for weapon gives india a big leverage in world. Actual we are buying influence and modernizing armed forces at the same time.

[Pratyush]

Buying weapon or at least pretending to look for weapon gives india a big leverage in world. Actual we are buying influence and modernizing armed forces at the same time.

I am afraid that this is not correct.

If that is the case, then US should not have any leverage. Because it meets most of its weapons needs domestically.

A long hard look at which Nations have leverage and which ones don't will reveal the following;

1) an economically independent nation has some leverage.
2) an economically and militarily independent nation has greater leverage than a nation that is just economically independent.
3) militarily dependent nation has little leverage.
4) an economically and militarily dependent nation has zero leverage.

What we are seeing in case of India is a combination of 1 and 3. We need to be both economically and militarily independent.

Imagine is scenario where our testimonials are in side our langoti.

As compared to our testimonials exposed to half dozen sets of hands with different interests.

One scenario is preferable to other.

Which is it?

[chetak]

[ramana]

chetak, Interestingly, Putin mamu destroyed most Ukrainian military factories except for Zorya!
Cant be a coinicedence.

[rsingh]

Buying weapon or at least pretending to look for weapon gives india a big leverage in world. Actual we are buying influence and modernizing armed forces at the same time.

I am afraid that this is not correct.

If that is the case, then US should not have any leverage. Because it meets most of its weapons needs domestically.

A long hard look at which Nations have leverage and which ones don't will reveal the following;

1) an economically independent nation has some leverage.
2) an economically and militarily independent nation has greater leverage than a nation that is just economically independent.
3) militarily dependent nation has little leverage.
4) an economically and militarily dependent nation has zero leverage.

What we are seeing in case of India is a combination of 1 and 3. We need to be both economically and militarily independent.

Imagine is scenario where our testimonials are in side our langoti.

As compared to our testimonials exposed to half dozen sets of hands with different interests.

One scenario is preferable to other.

Which is it?

Well Logic is as follows. Russia knows we can buy weapons and we pay in hard currency. Russia knows Chinese reverse engineer the goods and then reproduce.We do not. We are more valuable than China. You have no Idea how Chinese are seen in Siberia. Lovingly known as Takans (cockroaches).In all despite all fear mongering, Russia will never be against India.
US knows there is only one country in Asia (apart from Japan and S. Korea who can buy (potential) big ticket items in quantity and pay for It. Again despite all these low level jackal cries US will Not annoy India.You have foot in mouth comments here are there but nothing dangerous.
European countries. Have you seen how we milked Europe when we bought Raffale ? they were almost at each others collars. France has taken pro India stand after that. As Simple as that.

[chetak]

I am afraid that this is not correct.

If that is the case, then US should not have any leverage. Because it meets most of its weapons needs domestically.

A long hard look at which Nations have leverage and which ones don't will reveal the following;

1) an economically independent nation has some leverage.
2) an economically and militarily independent nation has greater leverage than a nation that is just economically independent.
3) militarily dependent nation has little leverage.
4) an economically and militarily dependent nation has zero leverage.

What we are seeing in case of India is a combination of 1 and 3. We need to be both economically and militarily independent.

Imagine is scenario where our testimonials are in side our langoti.

As compared to our testimonials exposed to half dozen sets of hands with different interests.

One scenario is preferable to other.

Which is it?

Well Logic is as follows. Russia knows we can buy weapons and we pay in hard currency. Russia knows Chinese reverse engineer the goods and then reproduce.We do not. We are more valuable than China. You have no Idea how Chinese are seen in Siberia. Lovingly known as Takans (cockroaches).In all despite all fear mongering, Russia will never be against India.
US knows there is only one country in Asia (apart from Japan and S. Korea who can buy (potential) big ticket items in quantity and pay for It. Again despite all these low level jackal cries US will Not annoy India.You have foot in mouth comments here are there but nothing dangerous.
European countries. Have you seen how we milked Europe when we bought Raffale ? they were almost at each others collars. France has taken pro India stand after that. As Simple as that.

the reaction of the britshits after India opted for the rafale was outstandingly satisfying.

[Pratyush]

You have not understood the basic point.

If India was meeting it's defense requirements by it self. It would not need anyone to support it. It will have the autonomy that it so craves.

If people are selling weapons to us. It's because we are paying money. Nothing is free. Every rupee that goes out of India, feeds a foreign MIC. which has the effect of enriching and preserving of jobs in that country. While exporting Indian wealth and jobs.

An arrangement that is the worst of all world's.

[ramana]

Canyou please post the original tweet?

[vijayk]

/quote]

Canyou please post the original tweet?

https://twitter.com/rohan_mukh/status/1 ... 4672512008