Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 11 Jul 2022 02:47

^The Bakra in the picture is a metaphor for the Paki Quoum.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 11 Jul 2022 10:34

There was a photo uploaded by a paki actress on Twitter. She was posing with a Bakra/i. The majority of abduls who responded to her tweet were lusting more for the goat...

Just regular baki quoum thing..

S_Madhukar · Post by **S_Madhukar** » 12 Jul 2022 06:30

Why can’t the Bakis use their atimbum for energy ? Did their bestest friends not show them how? Only to press the trigger ? They are a energy surplus quom they should use up the bum .

S_Madhukar · Post by **S_Madhukar** » 12 Jul 2022 06:33

Bart S wrote:^The Bakra in the picture is a metaphor for the Paki Quoum.

Yup and they prayed for Quomi salam(at)i !

Even handsome got bakrified such is the kudrat-e-paxtan

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 13 Jul 2022 18:48

No IMF deal in sight: PKR loses over Rs2, closes at 210.1 against dollar in interbank

The rupee lost over Rs2 against the dollar during interbank trade on Wednesday with analysts and currency dealers attributing it to fears over the delay in the finalisation of an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the local currency depreciated by Rs2.19, or 1.04 per cent, against the greenback and closed at Rs210.1.

neeraj · Post by **neeraj** » 13 Jul 2022 22:37

Some nuggests from above link

On the other hand, Zafar Paracha, the secretary general of the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan, attributed the rupee’s fall to the central bank’s allowing payments for imports.

No free maal

He also cited the delay in the IMF agreement as the reason for the rupee’s decline. The market had “no hope” that the money would be received any time soon because there were new demands every day, he said....The impression built earlier that we will get money from the IMF has been reversed

neeraj · Post by **neeraj** » 13 Jul 2022 22:43

Reserves fall as external debt servicing rises

The country’s external debt servicing rose to $10.886 billion in the first three quarters of 2021-22 compared to $13.38bn in the entire FY21.

The country has been facing a serious threat from its external front as the State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves fell to single digits despite a $2.3bn inflow from China late last month....The PML-N-led coalition didn’t disclose the rate at which it had borrowed $2.3bn from China....A senior analyst said that the Chinese knew that Pakistan was unable to return to the international debt market and the IMF was not in a hurry to help Islamabad. This was the reason for Chinese lent the money at a very high rate.

iron brother

kit · Post by **kit** » 13 Jul 2022 22:59

neeraj wrote:Reserves fall as external debt servicing rises

The country’s external debt servicing rose to $10.886 billion in the first three quarters of 2021-22 compared to $13.38bn in the entire FY21.

The country has been facing a serious threat from its external front as the State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves fell to single digits despite a $2.3bn inflow from China late last month....The PML-N-led coalition didn’t disclose the rate at which it had borrowed $2.3bn from China....A senior analyst said that the Chinese knew that Pakistan was unable to return to the international debt market and the IMF was not in a hurry to help Islamabad. This was the reason for Chinese lent the money at a very high rate.
iron brother

at that rate wonder how long a IMF bailout , even if that happens would last

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 14 Jul 2022 01:51

PKR back to 210 after going down to 200. Pakis should shun the sdre rupee and adopt a Tafta Arabic origin currency

partha · Post by **partha** » 14 Jul 2022 02:05

kit wrote: at that rate wonder how long a IMF bailout , even if that happens would last

It won't last. Pakis only want IMF loan so that it unlocks other sources of loan. So more and more loans. I wonder what's happening with IMF approval? Didn't the new finance minister boast about getting an approval from Dubai just a few days after coming to power? My suggestion to Paki PM is to sack Bajwa and all the crore kammandus sending shockwaves forcing faujis to mount a coup and come to power and deal with the mess.

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 14 Jul 2022 03:12

Hey Guys,

Now that Jernail Bajwa declared a change from Geostrategy to Geoeconomics, how is the strategic Geoeconomics going? I heard there is lots of victory and achievements in Geoeconomics these days

#ThankYouRaheelSharif

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 14 Jul 2022 03:18

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... esume-loan

July 13, 2022 at 5:07 AM PDT

Pakistan has reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund to resume its loan program, according to a government official familiar with the matter.

A $1.2 billion disbursement is expected in August after the IMF’s management gives final approval, the person said, asking not to be identified before a formal announcement. Representatives for the IMF in Pakistan and the nation’s finance ministry didn’t reply to emails seeking comment.

The Washington-based lender has also agreed to increase the loan program size by $1 billion -- taking it to a total $7 billion -- and extend it through June 2023, the person said.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 14 Jul 2022 08:50

These kind of ‘understandings’ and ‘agreements’ with IMF for releasing the money have been reached many times in the last few months. They are just putting out these headlines to keep mangoes under control.

partha · Post by **partha** » 14 Jul 2022 13:06

Anujan wrote:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... esume-loan
July 13, 2022 at 5:07 AM PDT

Pakistan has reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund to resume its loan program, according to a government official familiar with the matter.

A $1.2 billion disbursement is expected in August after the IMF’s management gives final approval, the person said, asking not to be identified before a formal announcement. Representatives for the IMF in Pakistan and the nation’s finance ministry didn’t reply to emails seeking comment.

The Washington-based lender has also agreed to increase the loan program size by $1 billion -- taking it to a total $7 billion -- and extend it through June 2023, the person said.

https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/97358 ... tah-ismail

Govt to slash petrol, diesel prices today, confirms Miftah Ismail
IMF has no objection on reducing the prices of petroleum products, says MIftah Ismail

Really? IMF has no objection?

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 14 Jul 2022 15:08

Anujan wrote:Hey Guys,

Now that Jernail Bajwa declared a change from Geostrategy to Geoeconomics, how is the strategic Geoeconomics going? I heard there is lots of victory and achievements in Geoeconomics these days

#ThankYouRaheelSharif

Let's just say that that they have been just as successful at Geoeconomics as they have been at Geostrategy.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 14 Jul 2022 21:15

My question is, when are we going to see a triple century for the Pak rupee against the $?
The IMF loan at this stage may not make a difference in the fall.
Gautam

CalvinH · Post by **CalvinH** » 14 Jul 2022 21:29

Geostrategy created two nations from one. I expect Geoeconomics to create at least 4 nations from 1.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 15 Jul 2022 12:10

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... esume-loan
Pakistan Reaches Agreement With IMF to Resume Loan
Loan disbursement may be in August, government official says
Bonds, stocks, rupee gain as Pakistan seen avoiding default
Faseeh Mangi and Karl Lester M Yap, July 14, 2022
Pakistan has reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund, a milestone that would pave the way for the release of an additional $1.2 billion in loans and unlock more funding.
The IMF will also consider extending the facility to the end of June 2023, it said in a statement Wednesday. The accord will make additional funds available once approved by the board, increasing the extended loan facility with Pakistan to about $7 billion, it said.
The IMF program “should alleviate fears of a near-term default scenario and unlock funding from other multilateral lenders,” Nicholas Yap, head of Asia credit desk analysts at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong, wrote in a note.
Pakistan’s rupee, dollar bonds and stocks rose as investors cheered the prospect of a bailout. The country requires at least $41 billion through June next year to keep the foreign-exchange stock at a “respectable” level and repay debts, the finance minister has said.
The nation’s dollar bonds due in December was indicated 2.2 cents higher at 90.04 per dollar, while debt due in April 2031 was quoted 0.2 cents higher. Pakistan’s rupee strengthened as much as 1% to 208.2 a dollar, while the benchmark KSE-100 Index of stocks gained 0.9%.
.....
Gautam
This will free up pending loans from Sugarland, UAE and Saudi. For Pakis $1.2 billion is just pocket change. It is high time for the current jernails to take their bonus and retire in Western Countries.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 15 Jul 2022 13:27

What is a staff level agreement?

James · Post by **James** » 15 Jul 2022 13:58

Dilbu wrote:What is a staff level agreement?

Plausible deniability for full agreement...

End-of-Mission press releases include statements of IMF staff teams that convey preliminary findings after a visit to a country. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF's Executive Board for discussion and decision.

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/20 ... eff-review

partha · Post by **partha** » 15 Jul 2022 14:39

Also: https://tribune.com.pk/story/2366041/im ... id-default

The finance ministry on Wednesday was totally unaware about the timing of the IMF press statement. The ministry was intimated just two about two hours before the IMF announced the agreement early Thursday morning.

The global lender stated that Islamabad should stand ready to “take any additional measures”.

The IMF statement revealed that against the primary budget surplus target of Rs153 billion or 0.2% of the GDP set in the newly revised budget, the global lender has, in fact, given the 0.4% target.

To achieve it, the government may either require more revenue measures or will have to slash the expenditure, excluding that on development.

The review of Pakistan’s “anti-corruption institutions, including the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) has also been made part of the programme conditions", according to the IMF statement.

So what does "staff agreement" mean if there are new conditions and there was no co-ordination between finance min and IMF about press statement. To me "staff agreement" looks like it's an agreement among IMF staff to not relax any conditions for disbursement of loan but Pakis are reporting it like there is an agreement between Pak and IMF.

neeraj · Post by **neeraj** » 15 Jul 2022 21:04

PKR loses Rs1 in interbank as dollar closes near Rs211

...Meanwhile, Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan General Secretary Zafar Paracha termed the dollar's rise as "unexpected".

"We (currency dealers) do not understand the reason for the [rupee's] decline because we were expecting it to rise by Rs2-3 since the IMF staff agreement has been done."

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 15 Jul 2022 21:22

What is this single's, need so.e big overs

neeraj · Post by **neeraj** » 16 Jul 2022 08:13

Is Pakistan Cornered Into Finding Its Own Solutions Out Of The Economic Crisis?

The headline itself is true pakistaniyat. No one wants to give us alms so we are cornered to think of ourselves

Some gems

Some analysts expected complete submission of the US and NATO in the region after the Russia-Ukraine fighting. They also hoped a new regional block, consisting of Pakistan, Russia, China, Turkey and Afghanistan, would take shape. But they have been proven wrong on both counts.

This must be the sea locked 'anal'yst

The Russia-Pakistan ties are in the initial stages. The chances of import of low price fuel to Pakistan from Russia are low. Russia is not in a position to offer any kind of financial assistance or fuel concessions to Pakistan. India on the other hand, is still getting oil and weapons from Russia. Undoubtedly, India is a strong ally of the US and Europe against China.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 16 Jul 2022 09:35

https://www.dawn.com/news/1699538/trade-with-india
Trade with India
Fahd Humayun Published July 14, 2022
The debate over whether or not Pakistan should trade with India has resurfaced in recent weeks, prompted in part by the poor health of the economy, as well as recent suggestions that Pakistan hasn’t quite been able to fully achieve its objectives vis-à-vis the Kashmir dispute by downgrading relations with India.
There is no disputing the economic justification for greater engagement with the neighbourhood, or the logic of geo-economic connectivity, which successive Pakistani governments have advocated for and which has recently found a central place in the country’s National Security Policy document.
But while those in favour of re-establishing Indo-Pak trading say that doing so could usher in economic benefits and foster peace constituencies, they ignore the logic for disengaging with India.
.....
Last year, the ECC saw its decision to import sugar, cotton and cotton yarn from India vetoed by the cabinet in less than 24 hours, even though the price of these commodities was cheaper in India.
During Nawaz Sharif’s third government (2013-17), it was ostensibly the military that had reservations about Sharif moving too rapidly on the trade front without sufficient movement on other political issues with India.
The purpose of recounting this timeline is to illustrate that attempts to revive trade with India will always be politically contentious, to the point of being radioactive, if these are not indemnified by a stronger political rationale for re-engaging India that enjoys multiparty and multi-stakeholder consensus.
For now, the only path to locating such a rationale lies in either a) evidence that the political and human rights situation in J&K (which was the basis of downgrading ties in the first place) is seeing demonstrable improvement; or b) evidence that the situation has stopped deteriorating sufficiently to allow for a window for conditional engagement with the expressed purpose of resolving the Kashmir dispute.
Unfortunately, any engagement with India sans either of these logics, no matter how compelling the underlying economic justification, will fail to gain acceptance amongst politicians and the street.
.....
Gautam

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 17 Jul 2022 12:50

Baki FM Miftah 'Muft Mian' Ismail fave words - Think, Perhaps

As Bakis 'eye' their Friends, the friends will be keeping their eyes and hands firmly on their wallets & pockets

Yawn - Eyeing $4 bn from friendly countries this month

Pakistan is likely to get $4 billion from friendly countries this month to bridge a gap in foreign reserves highlighted by the International Monetary Fund, Finance Minister Miftah Ismail said, two days after sealing a deal with the lender.

“As per the IMF, there is a $4bn gap,” Mr Ismail told a news conference in Islamabad, referring to the shortfall in foreign reserves.

“We will, God willing, fill this gap in the month of July,” he said. “We think that we will get $1.2bn in deferred oil payment from a friendly country. We think that a foreign country will invest between $1.5bn to $2bn in stocks on a G2G (government-to-government) basis, and another friendly country will perhaps give us gas on deferred payment and yet another friendly country will make some deposits.”

Deferred oil is Saudi, Deferred gas is Qatar.. who are the other two bakras? (China and Turkiye are brothers)

jash_p · Post by **jash_p** » 18 Jul 2022 03:16

Baki FM Miftah 'Muft Mian' Ismail fave words - Think, Perhaps

As Bakis 'eye' their Friends, the friends will be keeping their eyes and hands firmly on their wallets & pockets

Yawn - Eyeing $4 bn from friendly countries this month

Pakistan is likely to get $4 billion from friendly countries this month to bridge a gap in foreign reserves highlighted by the International Monetary Fund, Finance Minister Miftah Ismail said, two days after sealing a deal with the lender.

“As per the IMF, there is a $4bn gap,” Mr Ismail told a news conference in Islamabad, referring to the shortfall in foreign reserves.

“We will, God willing, fill this gap in the month of July,” he said. “We think that we will get $1.2bn in deferred oil payment from a friendly country. We think that a foreign country will invest between $1.5bn to $2bn in stocks on a G2G (government-to-government) basis, and another friendly country will perhaps give us gas on deferred payment and yet another friendly country will make some deposits.”

Deferred oil is Saudi, Deferred gas is Qatar.. who are the other two bakras? (China and Turkiye are brothers)

$1.2bn in deferred oil payment from a friendly country. - Saudi
foreign country will invest between $1.5bn to $2bn in stocks on a G2G (government-to-government) basis, - UAE
and another friendly country will perhaps give us gas on deferred payment - Qatar
yet another friendly country will make some deposits. - China

rags · Post by **rags** » 18 Jul 2022 04:32

Deferred oil is Saudi, Deferred gas is Qatar.. who are the other two bakras? (China and Turkiye are brothers)

Surely not bakra's.

The curious one of the bunch is UAE with equity investment aspirations. No talk of loans, free oil etc. They want to buy Paki companies. How the hell do they expect to fight the Jihadi army foundation and panda in the paki market? Or are they trying to buy them out? What sense does it make to invest in a state at the edge of failure.
Also, didn't we sign a FTA with UAE recently?

Many questions..

Guddu · Post by **Guddu** » 18 Jul 2022 08:24

Pak is at high risk for default..amongst the countries at highest risk in the world.

Pakistan Credit Default Swaps
The term credit default swap (CDS) refers to a financial derivative that allows an investor to swap or offset their credit risk with that of another investor. To swap the risk of default, the lender buys a CDS from another investor who agrees to reimburse the lender in the case the borrower defaults.
Credit Default Swap CDS Value Var % 1W Var % 1M Var % 1Y Implied PD(*)
5 Years CDS 505.92 +4.74 % +9.47 % +12.08 % 8.43 %
(*) Implied probability of default, calculated on the hypothesis of a 40% recovery rate.

Jits · Post by **Jits** » 18 Jul 2022 12:11

rags wrote:
Deferred oil is Saudi, Deferred gas is Qatar.. who are the other two bakras? (China and Turkiye are brothers)
Surely not bakra's.

The curious one of the bunch is UAE with equity investment aspirations. No talk of loans, free oil etc. They want to buy Paki companies. How the hell do they expect to fight the Jihadi army foundation and panda in the paki market? Or are they trying to buy them out? What sense does it make to invest in a state at the edge of failure.
Also, didn't we sign a FTA with UAE recently?

Many questions..

As it happens with Pakistani level of reporting where things under discussion are reported as done deal, here also this equity buy in appears to be a proposal from Pakistani side to UAE, so that they get free money without the need to return, whether or not UAE accepts it remains to be seen. I think it's likely to be rejected.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 18 Jul 2022 13:02

They had spoken about IMF releasing money in June like a done deal too. It is almost always wishful thinking packaged as positive news. All part of maintaining image and echandee.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 18 Jul 2022 13:18

Govt faces $4b financing gap despite IMF deal

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan was still facing a $4 billion financing gap that will be bridged by selling stakes of listed government companies to a friendly country, buying oil and gas on deferred payments and arranging cash deposits, said Finance Minister Miftah Ismail on Saturday.

The finance minister’s remarks that came two days after a deal with the International Monetary Fund give credence to the reports that the friendly nations would help Pakistan only after the revival of the bailout package.

“Against the $35.1 billion gross financing requirement for the current fiscal year, there is still a gap of $4 billion that will be bridged by the end of this month,” said Ismail.

He added that a friendly country would give oil on deferred payments equal to $1.2 billion and also give its Special Drawing Rights (SDR) – the supplementary foreign exchange reserve – to Pakistan.

“Another friendly nation will give gas on deferred payments while the third friendly country is planning to buy shares of Pakistani companies worth $1.5-2 billion,” he added.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 18 Jul 2022 13:38

From what Pakis themselves say, the story behind that is that Pakis went to UAE with a begging bowl, they refused to provide any loans or credit of any kind and said that basically nothing would be provided without collateral. Pakis then offered them stakes in govt owned infrastructure and enterprises, and suggested a framework to arrive at the valuation. UAE flatly refused and said that they themselves would decide on the valuation themselves, and their decision would be final, since the Pakis aren't credible. This is being spun by the Pakis as some kind of brilliant deal, whereas the UAE are basically trying their luck at a China style resource grab and are dictating terms to the Pakis.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 18 Jul 2022 14:27

Aur ye laga Chauka!

Thank you, Kaptaan Saab

Yawn - PKR hit new low of Rs 215.2 in interbank

The dollar continued its relentless upward march against the rupee on Monday with the greenback gaining Rs 4.3 in interbank trade.

According to the Forex Association of Pakistan, the dollar was trading at a record Rs 215.25 against the local currency at 1:18 pm, up Rs 4.3, or two per cent, from Friday’s close.

The dollar had closed at Rs 210.95 last week.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 18 Jul 2022 18:12

Cruel food inflation

When media reports about rising food inflation, the numbers don’t tell how difficult the lives of financially poor people become with prices of food items increasing day by day.

But that doesn’t mean poor Pakistanis, in particular, and others, in general, have found a magic wand to fight food inflation. In fact, mere survival continues to become more and more challenging for tens of millions — month after month and year after year. But who cares?

The vast majority of Pakistani families can be categorised in the first four groups whose monthly spending remains somewhere between Rs17,732 and Rs44,175. The latest PBS figures show that during the week ending on July 6, yearly SPI inflation or inflation in prices of essential items for these four groups ranged between 27.3 per cent and 32.2pc. Can we imagine how difficult it would have become for these people to survive with a decline of 27.3-32.2pc in their real income within a year?

Food inflation in Pakistan remains much higher than in other Asian countries that too face the impact of international fuel and food commodity prices; in June average food inflation in China, India and Bangladesh stood at 2.9pc, 7.75pc and 8.3pc respectively

Food inflation in Pakistan has been on the rise as elsewhere in the world. There are no two opinions about that. But the problem is that our policymakers don’t acknowledge the fact that structural deficiencies in our agriculture sector, lack of effective coordination between federal and provincial governments, absence of effective district governments, very weak implementation of the laws against unfair market practices like smuggling, cartel making, hoarding and overcharging, price inelasticity of most essential food items, broken supply chains and the existence of a large grey economy also continue to fuel food inflation, in particular, and overall inflation in general.

During Eidul Azha, most retailers in Karachi were charging Rs100 per litre over and above the printed prices of edible oil and ghee. A three-litre pack of a leading brand of cooking oil was being sold for Rs1800 against the printed price of Rs1485. This betrays the claims of the local administration about effective checks on unfair business practices.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 19 Jul 2022 13:39

Wow this is huge sixer!
US dollar soars to new high against PKR, trades at 221 in interbank

KARACHI: The Pakistani rupee depreciated further in the interbank market on Tuesday hitting a new low of 221 in the interbank market against the US dollar.

The foreign currency gained Rs5.80 during the intraday trade. The rupee was trading in the open market at Rs222 against the dollar today.

Experts are of the view that the dollar maintains its upward trajectory owing to the political uncertainty triggered by the thumping defeat of the ruling PML-N at the hands of PTI in the Punjab by-elections.

As per the data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Monday showed that the local unit lost Rs4.25, or 1.97%, against the US dollar to close at an all-time low of Rs215.20.

It was the highest day-on-day depreciation after March 26, 2020.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 19 Jul 2022 13:42

These are desperate measures and things are not very far from Sri Lanka's situation.
SBP restricts outflow of dollars

ISLAMABAD: Amid declining foreign exchange reserves, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has started choking the outflow of dollars of small amounts of less than $100,000 to avoid a further dip in the reserves, exposing many factories to the risk of closure and monetary penalties. The restrictive measures by the central bank are part of various capital controls that Pakistan is applying to avert a default-like situation amid a delay in approval and disbursement of $1.12 billion loan tranche by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), according to the sources.

Antrix · Post by **Antrix** » 19 Jul 2022 14:15

Just a few weeks back, we were waiting with bated breath for PKR to hit double century, now when do we start the countdown to triple century Sehwag style?

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 19 Jul 2022 15:13

Finally positive News , from Haram Dawn link but proper movement

PKR hits historic low of Rs.222-against dollar in interbank Trade

which means for INR:PKR, ratio which was above 2 before Pulwama is now 2.71, in Jul 21 it 2.15, i.e in 1 year pious Rupee has depreciated 26% against the Kafir Rupee

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 19 Jul 2022 15:13

Dilbu wrote:Wow this is huge sixer!
US dollar soars to new high against PKR, trades at 221 in interbank
The foreign currency gained Rs5.80 during the intraday trade. The rupee was trading in the open market at Rs222 against the dollar today.

Shabash. We expect no less than chaukas and chakkas from Kaptaan sahab