Pakistani Economic Stress Watch

Ramesh · Post by **Ramesh** » 14 Dec 2022 21:30

Balochis have decided to strike back by having a small bonfire.

CalvinH · Post by **CalvinH** » 14 Dec 2022 22:46

Pakis are not letting the foreign airlines remit the ticket money back outside Pakistan. Such is the shortage of the Forex. That's the reason the Karachi dude was advised that he may not be able to fly out.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 15 Dec 2022 11:45

Dar needs to have another stern talk with the Poor Moody Fishes

Remittances decline 14pc in November

Remittances sent by overseas Pakistanis declined by 14 per cent in November this year. The inflows fell by 9.6 per cent during the first five months of the current fiscal year (FY23).

The latest data released by the State Bank on Wednesday showed that the remittances kept falling and declined to $2.1 billion in November from $2.5bn during the same month last year. The inflows declined by 5pc compared to $2.215bn in October this year.

..

Currency experts and bankers believe that the low inflows are the direct consequences of a wide gap in dollar rates. The grey market offers Rs 255 per dollar, while banks provide Rs 224.71 for a dollar.

mody · Post by **mody** » 15 Dec 2022 12:23

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/gw ... 22ef87827a

Baloch rebels blow up oil storage facility at Gwadar port. Every little bit helps!!

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 16 Dec 2022 01:59

Neela wrote:
In some areas, consumers have complained of hardly getting two hours of gas supply during the day. There have also been complaints about low gas pressure in many areas which means consumers are even unable to cook proper meals.

Kraachi has piped gas?

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 16 Dec 2022 06:06

Vayutuvan wrote:
Neela wrote:
Kraachi has piped gas?

Yes , some paki cities have piped gas. They used to boast abt it in the 90’s . Now they wish they used the cylinder system

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 16 Dec 2022 08:26

When partition was planned, the West thought with the highly developed Western Punjab irrigation system, facilities in Lahore, Karachi and resources of Baluchistan, Pakistan would outshine India. To secure the Pakis the West introduced the Indus water treaty, helped build the Paki China road etc.

That is why a Network of piped gas was built for Pakis in the 1950s. This supply was interrupted for 6 months in Dec 1971 when the Gas supplies were knocked out by IAF An 12 bombers.

With heavy Aid Paki economy and defense were punching above their weight for 70 years. 1989 when the Kashmir struggle broke, Pakis had a much richer economy than us
. There is ecosystem of FFNGOs which funds politics, Judiciary Babudom which keeps India backward, slowly we have to break this jinx. But there can never be peace between India and Pakistan, the first step is to break Pakistan up in long process of setting up India 'a long term safety

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 16 Dec 2022 09:11

Vayutuvan wrote:
Neela wrote:
Kraachi has piped gas?

Yes as others have pointed out they have had this facility for decades. Parts of south Bombay used to have piped gas, even I recall my friend from Baroda saying they had it. This is not rocket science but if the city utility has a commercial interest, they will make it happen. Since petroleum was in govt hands and gas was subsidized, piped gas remained a pipe dream. I have also seen a hybrid of piped gas used widely since about 20 years ago which is industrial size cylinders in an apartment complex connected together like a bank of batteries, delivering gas through pipes and usage being metered in each flat.

CalvinH · Post by **CalvinH** » 16 Dec 2022 11:24

Aditya_V wrote:When partition was planned, the West thought with the highly developed Western Punjab irrigation system, facilities in Lahore, Karachi and resources of Baluchistan, Pakistan would outshine India. To secure the Pakis the West introduced the Indus water treaty, helped build the Paki China road etc.
With heavy Aid Paki economy and defense were punching above their weight for 70 years. 1989 when the Kashmir struggle broke, Pakis had a much richer economy than us

+ the factories in East Pakistan. Good size population, fertile land, natural resources and good location. Plus generous western aid. Pakistan has it all going for it.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 16 Dec 2022 11:33

Aditya_V wrote:When partition was planned, the West thought with the highly developed Western Punjab irrigation system, facilities in Lahore, Karachi and resources of Baluchistan, Pakistan would outshine India. To secure the Pakis the West introduced the Indus water treaty, helped build the Paki China road etc.

You forgot to add one crucial piece of information.
Most if not all of the commercial, educational and industrial facilities were run by the Hindus or Sikhs. Peacefuls were just rent seekers with no idea about running anything. It's not a surprise that when Muhazirs went from India there was so much resentment from the Punjabis, as Muhazirs had much better level of education. That's a fault-line that is still visible.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 23 Dec 2022 09:11

FM Dar must be planning another stern talking to the S&P guys

Yawn - S&P Global lowers Pakistan’s long-term sovereign credit rating

Global ratings agency S&P Global on Thursday cut Pakistan’s long-term sovereign credit rating by one notch to “CCC+” from “B” to reflect a continued weakening of the country’s external, fiscal and economic metrics.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 27 Dec 2022 06:57

I have seen increasing quantities of Pakistan sourced goods in Indian grocery stores. Patel-Bros in particular. like Kashmir tea , dry dates , dry apricots etc. Was not the case before. What's most shocking is that The Kerala based company Swad is sourcing dates and apricots from Pakistan for some reason. Does anyone here no folks in Patel Bros or Swad ? We need to do our bit and put an end to this. Happy to give my 2 cents worth if needed. I'll sleep better we succeed in reducing there already dismal Non IT exports further , even if its only a couple of mill.

williams · Post by **williams** » 27 Dec 2022 07:41

Probably sourced from the middle east. SWAD is a Patil Brothers brand not sure if they are directly importing from the Paki's

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 27 Dec 2022 07:43

Insist any and all halal comestibles are so labelled. It is ironic that plant foodstuffs can be halal, but so be it.

Let the consumer make the choice.

Ardeshir · Post by **Ardeshir** » 27 Dec 2022 13:37

sanjaykumar wrote:Insist any and all halal comestibles are so labelled. It is ironic that plant foodstuffs can be halal, but so be it.

Let the consumer make the choice.

To be labeled halal, a food product can only be handled/packaged by a Muslim. That alone should qualify as discriminatory.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 27 Dec 2022 20:09

The consumer would be eschewing halal not Muslims. The boycott would have some collateral effects

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 28 Dec 2022 00:04

^ Indian companies have sought halal cert to sell to some muslim countries. while that is not ideal Ill still purchase a haldiram product manufactured in India as the profit contributes to indian economy even though they caved into the rent seeking behavior of halaal certifiers .
I would never buy anything with made in pak label even if that is the only item on shelf and nothing else is available.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 28 Dec 2022 00:17

I for one am done with Haldiram. They can sell halal elsewhere.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 30 Dec 2022 13:18

Dar-o-nomics 101: Press harder on the accelerator when the out of control car is going down slope.

His skill is of timely ejection (to UK-stan) just before the crash impact

Yawn - SBP’s forex reserves fall to eight-year low

With the expected IMF tranche still nowhere to be seen, State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves on Thursday further declined by $ 294 million to $ 5.8 billion — their eight years’ low — making it even more difficult for the country to repay its foreign debts.

Though Finance Minister Ishaq Dar insists Pakistan will not default, the situation on the ground hardly supports his assertions.

A US dollar, which was sold at Rs 180 in April, traded at Rs 226 in the inter-bank market on Thursday. Yet, the greenback has almost vanished from the open market over the last couple of months. Worse, a grey market has emerged due to the shortage of American dollar which is offering a dollar for Rs 260 to Rs 270, against the inter-bank rate of Rs 226.

Bankers said the low exchange rate being managed by the State Bank artificially has diverted this $ 300m to the illegal grey market. Currency experts said if this trend continues then more remittances would go to the grey market and the country would lose about $4 bn at the end of the current fiscal FY23.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 30 Dec 2022 13:52

Another $1b due next week

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is set to make debt repayments of over $1 billion to two foreign commercial banks early next month, amid the government’s hard struggle to avoid sovereign default with very little gross foreign exchange reserves left behind.

Sources in the Ministry of Finance told The Express Tribune that the government will return two loans to the Gulf banks in the first week of January. These loans had been secured for a period of one year in the hope that the lenders will further extend repayment at the time of maturity. Junk credit ratings pointing out high risk of default, however, restrained foreign lenders from keeping their commitments to Pakistan.

Two separate repayments of $600 million and $415 million will be made to two Dubai-based commercial banks. Until fresh loans are secured, these repayments are expected to make a major dent in the already precarious foreign exchange reserves – currently standing at around $6 billion. The Ministry of Finance did not comment on this article.

Details seen by The Express Tribune suggest that the $32 billion plan was too optimistic to materialise in the absence of the IMF umbrella. The government still believes it can raise $1.5 billion by floating Eurobonds and has made it part of the external financing plan. Another net $300 million are projected on account of Naya Pakistan Certificates (NPC).

As against the budgeted over $7 billion foreign commercial loans, the Ministry of Finance still sees $6.3 billion materialising in the current fiscal year, a figure that also appears highly optimistic. The government is pinning its hopes on China rolling-over its foreign commercial loans worth $3.5 billion and non-Chinese banks not taking back their loans worth $1.3 billion. The finance ministry says that a $700 million Chinese commercial loan will arrive soon, which Islamabad had returned earlier.

So far, however, both the Chinese and non-Chinese commercial banks have stayed away from extending their loans due to the adverse impact of Pakistan’s junk credit rating on their overall balance sheets.

The government expects that it will be able to get fresh foreign commercial loans worth $1.5 billion in the current fiscal year, an assessment that may not be true without the IMF programme’s revival. Foreign commercial banks are now demanding an interest rate much higher than 10%, which the government cannot politically afford.

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 30 Dec 2022 22:18

Pakistan has lost $7 billion due to Junk credit rating

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 30 Dec 2022 22:21

Didnt Dar say that he is an IMF expert, knows how to deal with IMF?

The previous fellow took a reasonable path of austerity and shoring up finances. The current fellow thinks that he can do brinkmanship and get loan approvals.

Dar might have a point, I was listening to Mohamed A. El-Erian who said that one of the objectives of multinational lending agencies was to prevent political and social instability. From that angle, the four fathers might still rescue Pakistan, especially if they are afraid about "the bum falling in the hands of the taliban".

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 30 Dec 2022 23:17

All the funding will now flow to Ukraine, pakis may get a few scraps which their elite will blow away in a few months

Dar-o-nomics is all about keeping the PKR low vs $ , wait for a few yrs and u will see a huge jump in $ .

partha · Post by **partha** » 31 Dec 2022 11:06

Anujan wrote: The previous fellow took a reasonable path of austerity and shoring up finances. The current fellow thinks that he can do brinkmanship and get loan approvals.

The previous fellow is quite reasonable indeed. He identifies the problems with Pakistan economy correctly but when it comes to India he appears delusional like every other Paki. In this talk on being asked about trade with India, he says he had tweeted he is ready to trade veggies with India but no Indian leader responded to that tweet

Literally on the verge of bankruptcy but still expects India to reach out to Pakistan via twitter.

https://youtu.be/YOXEsu4xt7M?t=4093

He also said until BJP is in power good relations with India is not possible but then a RAW agent contradicted him saying it was BJP PM Vajpayee who came to Lahore, accepted Pakistan's creation etc but you gave Kargil in return and when Modi came to Lahore to improve ties you did Pathankot. Miftah Ismail doesn't even respond to it.

RAW agent appears here - https://youtu.be/YOXEsu4xt7M?t=4395

rrao · Post by **rrao** » 31 Dec 2022 12:44

pakistan will never go bankrupt and will be kept well alive by enemies of india....one surprising thing that i observed ,all the dual use items available either on e-bay, amazon etc say that the item can not be shipped to india and club india with yemen,nigeria,somalia etc... the same item thay ship to pakistan...is it ukarain effect?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 31 Dec 2022 21:26

"Pakistan has to pay $8.3 billion for debt servicing in the next 3 months and foreign reserves stand at $5.8 billion."

https://www.indianarrative.com/economy- ... 89223.html

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 31 Dec 2022 23:39

partha wrote:
Anujan wrote: The previous fellow took a reasonable path of austerity and shoring up finances. The current fellow thinks that he can do brinkmanship and get loan approvals.
The previous fellow is quite reasonable indeed. He identifies the problems with Pakistan economy correctly but when it comes to India he appears delusional like every other Paki. In this talk on being asked about trade with India, he says he had tweeted he is ready to trade veggies with India but no Indian leader responded to that tweet Literally on the verge of bankruptcy but still expects India to reach out to Pakistan via twitter.

https://youtu.be/YOXEsu4xt7M?t=4093

He also said until BJP is in power good relations with India is not possible but then a RAW agent contradicted him saying it was BJP PM Vajpayee who came to Lahore, accepted Pakistan's creation etc but you gave Kargil in return and when Modi came to Lahore to improve ties you did Pathankot. Miftah Ismail doesn't even respond to it.

RAW agent appears here - https://youtu.be/YOXEsu4xt7M?t=4395

The sense of entitlement these buggers have is mind boggling , we should not deal with them

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 01 Jan 2023 05:28

Four father support in a graph

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 01 Jan 2023 11:19

Anujan wrote:Four father support in a graph

..

Anujan ji, is there such a graph for a longer period.. say from the 1970s ?

I tried a basic chart from the US state dept website (for US aid) and Wiki (for GDP).

From the 1970s onwards the US aid alone accounts for roughly 0.5 % of the Pak GDP.

It hovers around 3.5% during the US covert action in A'stan and hovers between 2.5-3% during the initial period of the US overt action in A'stan (post 9/11).

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 Jan 2023 00:29

Year in review: Will the economy survive 2023?

The economy has deteriorated from bad to worse in 2022. The outlook for the next year suggests that the tough phase may continue for some time, despite the government taking some corrective measures immediately.

A section of experts believe that the country is heading towards witnessing “negative economic growth” for the third time in the history of Pakistan in the current fiscal year (Jul-June) 2022-23.

The key crisis in the domestic economy is the fall of the country’s foreign exchange reserves to the alarming level of $5.8 billion and the repayment of foreign debt worth $73 billion in the next three years (till end of fiscal year 2025).

The rest of the crises in the economy are by-products of the key crisis. They include a 49-year high inflation rate of 27%, a 23-year high key policy rate (benchmark interest rate) at 16%, increased rate of taxes and 28% devaluation of the domestic currency to Rs227 against the US dollar in 2022.

“There are two possible options to move on. One, the government agrees to implement stringent conditions agreed with the IMF to resume the loan programme and find some financial space to fix the current economic crisis. The second option is to part ways with the IMF, leading to Pakistan defaulting on its foreign debt repayments,” he commented.

“In both scenarios (with the IMF or without it), the country will continue to face high inflation readings of 23-24% on average in FY23 coupled with a shortage of goods, particularly energy and food,” Rauf stated.

“Only a miracle can save us from the impending debt crisis. The miracle could be if one or more friendly countries make heavy equity-based investment (not debt-based investment as happened in CPEC) worth $10-20 billion in Pakistan. Our immediate goal is to stop multiplying the crisis,” he said.

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 02 Jan 2023 12:10

@SouthAsiaIndex
Islamabad:— Pakistani govt to take action against 'negative reporting' about country's dwindling economy.

Parasu · Post by **Parasu** » 03 Jan 2023 03:28

https://www.brecorder.com/news/40217941 ... operations
"KSB Pumps Company Limited (KSBP), a manufacturer of industrial pumps, has announced to suspend plant operations from January 02, 2023, citing import restrictions."

"On Friday, Suraj Cotton Mills Limited (SURC), a textile manufacturer, announced to curtail its production by 40%. Baluchistan Wheels Limited (BWHL), an auto parts maker, also extended the closure of production activities till January 6, citing depressed demand.

Last week, textile giant Nishat Chunian Limited (NCL) announced that it will partially shut down its spindles from January, citing market conditions.

The textile manufacturer informed the bourse that the spindles would restart operations after improvement in market conditions.

Last month, Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMCL) announced a complete shut off its plant for both automobiles and motorcycles from January 2, 2023, to January 6, 2023, due to an inventory shortage.

Meanwhile, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), after unabated rupee depreciation, imposed restrictions on the opening of Letters of Credit (LCs). It has recently rolled back the restrictions subject to Pakistan’s foreign exchange position, which has weakened further in recent weeks."

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 03 Jan 2023 10:33

No respite: Inflation edges up to 24.5% in December

In line with the market expectations, consumer prices increased rather slowly to 24.5% in December amid persistent inflationary pressures, indicating no letup for the people, whose purchasing power has already hit rock bottom.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the inflation monitor, rose to 24.5% in December from 12.3% in the same period last year, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported on Monday.

Despite a slight increase of 0.7% in the index movement, the majority of the consumer goods remained out of the people's reach.

The inflation rate, however, was not in line with the Ministry of Finance’s expectations, which ranged from 21% to 23%.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 03 Jan 2023 12:33

Last couple of weeks there is almost a clockwork like alternate day up and down movement of the PSE

Looks like the stock brokers have also moved to a regular fixed earning cycle - buy low today, sell high tomorrow, repeat.

mody · Post by **mody** » 03 Jan 2023 12:57

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/pa ... efc85240a8

Pakistan Railways being forced to curtail is operations, due to shortage of fuel.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 03 Jan 2023 13:44

Mody wrote: Pakistan Railways being forced to curtail is operations, due to shortage of fuel.

SDRE Indians don't realize this is strategy (raided from Indian congress)... bakis are not allowing rail operations thus denying targets for the Indian Air Force!!

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 03 Jan 2023 21:36

There are photos of people buying cooking gas in plastic bags as there is intermittent supply.

Not sure how true this is.

Ashokk · Post by **Ashokk** » 04 Jan 2023 04:25

Tanaji wrote:There are photos of people buying cooking gas in plastic bags as there is intermittent supply.

Not sure how true this is.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 04 Jan 2023 13:29

Pakistan to shut markets and restaurants early to save power amid economic crisis

Islamabad/New Delhi CNN
—
Pakistan’s economic woes show no signs of letting up in 2023.

The South Asian nation announced a new energy conservation plan Tuesday as its fragile economy continues to struggle with multiple challenges. The government has ordered all markets to close by 8.30 pm and restaurants by 10 pm, according to a tweet by its ruling party. These measures will help the country save 62 billion Pakistani rupees ($274 million), the post added.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has also ordered all federal departments to reduce their energy consumption by 30%. The country is in the midst of a severe energy crisis and is heavily dependent on imported fuel.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 04 Jan 2023 13:31

Pakistan’s Cotton Production Falls By an Alarming 37%

Pakistan’s cotton output decreased by over 37 percent year-on-year (YoY), according to the latest fortnightly data released by the Pakistan Cotton Ginner’s Association (PCGA) on Tuesday. Total cotton arrivals in Pakistan slid to 4.61 million bales as of January 1, 2023, compared to 7.347 million bales in the corresponding period last year, recording a difference of 2.73 million bales and a drop of 37.25 percent.