Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 11 Jan 2023 00:34

ks_sachin wrote:
NRao wrote: Why are you looking at brigades and KIA, etc?
Because I started this thread to understand Russian & Ukr combat tactics and battle craft - especially as the IA has also embarked on a transformation program.

Putin may be the grand master of strategy, but his hand could have been a lot stronger if the pool of professional career soldiers was broader or if corruption in the armed forces was less than what it is or if the organisational structure of the Russian armed forces was better or if combined ops philosophies had evolved beyond the Soviet times - etc etc etc

IF, THEN, ELSE.

No idea who says that the professional Russian soldier fared badly. I have not heard anyone in the West that has a background in Russian military history come even close to implying that.

From Putin's level, he is sitting in a much better position than any other leader in the world - literally. Putin, like any other leader, looks at such situations in far more holistic ways (I called it full spectral). While his armed forces could have done better in 2022 (recall his army did extremely well in 2014-15 when the Germans/French asked for a ceasefire and in very bad faith negotiated the TWO Minsk accords)(for the record the Russian army in 2015 surrounded arguably 100,000 Ukrainian troops - which led to the Minsk accords), his ministries on the economic front beat the crap out of the West - remember this, from Biden PoV, was a two-front conflict: armed + economics.

And, in a way - with 20/20 hindsight, I for one am very glad it turned out this way. Extremely costly in terms of lives, granted, however, at the same time had the Russians succeeded within a week or two, we would have had another bad-faith Minsk accord. And, the whole cycle would have started all over again.

Now that Putin (after Merkel's admission that Germany negotiated in bad faith) has said that Russia made a mistake WRT the Minsk Accords. One of his original goals was to demilitarize Ukraine. I very much doubt Russia will back off that goal. Russia, and rightly so IMO, does not care for Ukraine anymore and the trust in the West has evaporated. I very much doubt any negotiations are even possible.

On combat tactics, etc - perhaps one can gather some info on the 2014-15 era combat. The only philosophy I see for 2022/23 is a robust MIC supported by a good economy. Rest is a slugfest. IMO. And, BTW, "Russia" = whatever the two Donbas militias + Wagner + Chechens + Russian regulars.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 11 Jan 2023 03:32

NRao,

I really dont care anbout the Minsk accord et all because this is not the subject of my academic interest. However, while I may concede that Putin's hand is strong - could it have been stronger?

My view of the state of the Soviet Armed forces and now the Russian armed forces do not need validation by any western commentator. But you do realise that the Indian Armed forces have a significant of interaction with them over the years.

On combat tactics, etc - perhaps one can gather some info on the 2014-15 era combat. The only philosophy I see for 2022/23 is a robust MIC supported by a good economy. Rest is a slugfest. IMO. And, BTW, "Russia" = whatever the two Donbas militias + Wagner + Chechens + Russian regulars. - If that is all then perhaps we can this thread and stick to the geopolitics of which there seems to be am ample amount on this thread.

Deans has given ample indications of the state of affairs - which provide data points to my position - so this my last post on this thread.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 11 Jan 2023 04:25

Joint press conference

Held Jan 10, 2023

by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, President of the European Council Charles Michel and President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen

(As delivered)

Good morning.
President von der Leyen,
dear Ursula,
President Michel,
dear Charles,

Welcome to both of you. It is great to see you back at NATO headquarters and a very warm welcome to both of you.
This is a great way of starting the New Year.

We have just signed the third NATO-EU joint declaration.
To further advance the strategic partnership between NATO and the European Union.
This is more important than ever.

Almost a year ago, hours after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the 24 February, the three of us met together here at the NATO Headquarters.
President Putin wanted to take Ukraine in a few days.
And to divide us.

On both counts, he has clearly failed.

Russian troops have been pushed back by the brave Ukrainian forces.
And NATO and the European Union have stood united in support of Ukraine.

The regime in Moscow wants a different Europe.
It wants to control its neighbours.
And it sees democracy and freedom as a threat.
This will have long-lasting consequences for our security.

So we must continue to strengthen the vital transatlantic bond in NATO.
We must continue to strengthen the partnership between NATO and the European Union.
And we must further strengthen our support to Ukraine.

In a world of growing strategic competition, authoritarian actors challenge our interests, values and democratic principles.
Through military, but also political, economic, and technological means.

China’s growing assertiveness and policies present challenges that we need to address.

Persistent conflict and instability in our neighbourhood undermine our security.
And provide fertile ground for both strategic competitors and terrorist groups.

Our declaration makes clear that NATO remains the foundation of our collective defence and remains essential for Euro-Atlantic security.

It also recognises the value of a more capable European defence that contributes positively to our security and is complementary to, and interoperable with, NATO.

Today’s declaration builds on the previous two, from 2016 and 2018.
Based on these declarations, we have developed concrete actions.
And we have reached unprecedented progress in our cooperation.

We are determined to take the partnership between NATO and the European Union to the next level.

To address in particular the growing geostrategic competition, resilience issues, and the protection of critical infrastructures. As well as emerging and disruptive technologies, space, the security implications of climate change, foreign interference and information manipulation.

Our partnership will become even more important once Finland and Sweden become full NATO members.

With their accession, NATO will be protecting 96% of the citizens in the European Union.
And a higher share of its territory than ever before.

We encourage the fullest possible involvement of the NATO Allies that are not members of the EU in its initiatives.
And we encourage the fullest possible involvement of EU members that are not part of the Alliance in its initiatives.

So dear Ursula, dear Charles,
Thank you for your personal commitment and your leadership in taking our cooperation forward.

So then, I pass the floor to you, President Michel.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 11 Jan 2023 06:56

What I admire about Russia is their commitment to Russians living in Ukraine. They staunchly supported their folks. They did not sit idly while Ukranians were massacring them since 2014.

Sometimes my son who grew up in US makes fun of India that they can't take care of Hindus anywhere whether in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh or even in West Bengal

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 11 Jan 2023 07:12

My American grown up adult daughters' first question after explaining the events of partition - who in their right mind divides the land but keeps the people? that is the dumbest thing ever. and i did not even tell her that there was an election and the overwhelming majority of them voted for the partition -

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 11 Jan 2023 07:55

who in their right mind divides the land but keeps the people?

That summarises the existential question for Bharat. Perhaps Partition is a process and the terms will be fulfilled, there being much compelling reason, from Islamic jurisprudence (hijrat) to a sense of fair play and integrity.

Perhaps when thought leaders like Rana Ayyub (no irony implied) pack up for greener pastures, others will follow.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 11 Jan 2023 08:07

The solution is simple - Akhand Bharat....

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 11 Jan 2023 10:16

ks_sachin wrote:The solution is simple - Akhand Bharat....

Akand bharat with 58 crore Rop plus 12 crore useful idiot's will be a disaster, some migration to other countries needs to happen before it.

A Deshmukh · Post by **A Deshmukh** » 11 Jan 2023 11:53

we dont need Akhand Bharat. we need a defanged tsp split into 4 parts and a land route to Central Asia all way to Rus.
but this discussion is off topic of thread. no more.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 11 Jan 2023 13:59

Arima wrote:News of TSP planning to send huge consignment of 155mm shells to UKrn in return for Gasturbine engines for Ships and Tanks. more or less Ukrn will cease to be builder army by the end of war with capability destroyed.

It doesnt appear that there is any credible defense industrial capacity left in Ukraine now. The Paki generals are selling all they can against hard cash to US defense procurement specialists who are scouring the globe for readily available munitions. Expect a few more billionaire Paki officers who may out do Bjawa's moolah.

YashG · Post by **YashG** » 11 Jan 2023 14:03

Unless Roos doesnt get a magnitude more intelligent and efficienct in its deployment of ammo, people & equipment - there is no way Ukraine will be routed + US MIC needs a war to keep itself running - Post afghanistan they were looking for one and they got one. Now they will do everything to make Ukraine a 10 year long running blank cheque.

Parasu · Post by **Parasu** » 11 Jan 2023 15:45

Looks like Soledar has fallen to Wagner.
Prigozhin said that Bakhmut and Soledar are very defensible because of terrain and existence of deep long tunnels of salt mines.

May be Russia intends to use these mines for storing ammunition and for jump off position for future offensive operations.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 11 Jan 2023 16:18

salt mine of soledar which runs for 200 kms underground opening into Bakhmut.

Usually amount of whine from UK is indicative of how important the capture is, this time howling is massive & intense.

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 11 Jan 2023 16:46

Akhand bharat with a rump pakjabi state might work as they are the poison.

Parasu · Post by **Parasu** » 11 Jan 2023 16:52

https://tass.com/politics/1560597
Russian guards claim to have achieved some success against Ukrainian strong points.

Prigozhin also said that it was only Wagner and no other units which fought and achieved success in Soledar.

There seems to be performance pressure on individual units in Russia.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 11 Jan 2023 19:02

UK is trying to downplay it as if this is not tactically important but was done solely to please the oligarch as he expressed an intention to develop the same.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 12 Jan 2023 01:43

A sudden mass exodus of warships and submarines from Novorossiysk today. Very unusual, may be a leading indicator of an operation of some kind

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... black-sea/

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 12 Jan 2023 02:17

Musical chairs in Russian Military leadership.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... y-shake-up

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 12 Jan 2023 02:18

Akhand Bharat with an invitation to become Sanatan Dharmis or move to Saudi Arabia

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 12 Jan 2023 03:16

Parasu wrote:https://tass.com/politics/1560597
Russian guards claim to have achieved some success against Ukrainian strong points.

Prigozhin also said that it was only Wagner and no other units which fought and achieved success in Soledar.

There seems to be performance pressure on individual units in Russia.

No idea how true this is, but, there were reports that Prigozhin wanted these salt mines for himself - to run them as his own business.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 12 Jan 2023 03:32

ks_sachin wrote:Musical chairs in Russian Military leadership.

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... y-shake-up

This is certainly an upgrade.

General Sergei Surovikin has been replaced by, I think his boss, General Valery Gerasimov.

General Valery Gerasimov is a Russian army general serving as the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and First Deputy Minister of Defence. Just to be clear he is the head of the Russian Ground Forces, the Navy, and the Aerospace Forces, as well as three independent arms of service: the Strategic Rocket Forces, the Airborne Forces, and the Special Operations Forces.

He has been in that position since 2012!!

Surovikin is still in the same place he has been in the past 3 months. He has not gone anywhere.

______________________________________________________-

I suspect this conflict will be elevated and just may include a few nations outside of Ukraine. There are a number of nations surrounding Ukraine that have either activated or are in the process of activating processes that are a step below mobilizations. The US has sent the 101st and some 18,000 soldiers across the pond, Poland has called up 200,000, Sweden is in the process of something, Romania is hosting the 101st and has been very active along the border with Ukraine, and add to that there is a marked escalation in the arms being sent by the collective West to Ukraine.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 12 Jan 2023 03:56

NRao wrote:India cannot straddle this divide.

Why not? Neutrality has been working brilliantly for us over the last year.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 12 Jan 2023 04:50

@YK,

Will respond in the fallout thread - in due time.

Russia’s Rebound

How Moscow Has Partly Recovered From Its Military Setbacks

Behind paywall.

"All the dumb Russians are dead.” So said Ukrainian officials in July 2022 as they sought to explain why the Russian army had abandoned the overambitious strategy and amateurish tactics that defined its conduct in the early weeks of the war. It was probably too early to make this quip. The Russians continued to do many dumb things and indeed still do. But broadly speaking, the Ukrainians’ intuition in the summer now appears correct: when it comes to overall military strategy, Moscow seems to have gotten smarter.

Russian strategic decisions are finally starting to make military sense. ..................

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 12 Jan 2023 07:40

The conflict has long been escalated, as Raytheon itself said they played a huge part in Moscowa sinking, similarly attacks on Crimean airbases, Crimean bridge. I suspect Nasams Patriots were probably there in Ukraine from early in the war.

Remember in the 1980s US denied any role in Afganistan, it was only after the conflict was over Western media started boasting of stingers etc. I suspect we don't the full extent and how many NATO miltary staff have died to keep Ukraine in the fight.

shaun · Post by **shaun** » 12 Jan 2023 08:57

NRao wrote:@YK,

Will respond in the fallout thread - in due time.

Russia’s Rebound

How Moscow Has Partly Recovered From Its Military Setbacks
Behind paywall.

"All the dumb Russians are dead.” So said Ukrainian officials in July 2022 as they sought to explain why the Russian army had abandoned the overambitious strategy and amateurish tactics that defined its conduct in the early weeks of the war. It was probably too early to make this quip. The Russians continued to do many dumb things and indeed still do. But broadly speaking, the Ukrainians’ intuition in the summer now appears correct: when it comes to overall military strategy, Moscow seems to have gotten smarter.

Russian strategic decisions are finally starting to make military sense. ..................

The trick is to copy the headline along with whatever available in the report , search it and if you are lucky some sites have mirror image of the full version of the report . But be cautious using those websites as they have several links popping out.

tenaliram · Post by **tenaliram** » 12 Jan 2023 13:44

For me the following works:
1. Copy and paste the heading.
2. In google search open "Cached" copy and if it still hits paywall, then you can try open "text only" version in the cached copy.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 12 Jan 2023 16:55

Whatever mistakes the Russian leadership and military have made since the beginning of the war (varying opinions abound on this) the important point to note is the entire Russian war machine -troops, formations, equipment, tactics, comns, logistics etc - is now very well "debugged". Their experience has increased at every level and their soldiers will now have far less fear and anxiety of contact with enemy.

Something the people in the west itching for NATO to get into the fray would do very well to consider.

Same is true to some extent for Ukrainien forces, but they have lost so many soldiers and equipment that most of the learnings can't be brought to bear, plus with all kinds of diverse donated stuff on which they are poorly/not at all trained, the remaining forces can accomplish very little against the Russians now.

Just recall how India approached the Kargil conflict in the first few weeks vs last few weeks. The huge learning and validation of all kinds of things that occured.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 12 Jan 2023 18:36

Ukrainian forces having got thier tactics right after loosing men and Soviet era material, now have to relearn tactics while loosing men and material on the virtual zoo of material provided by NATO to the benefit of each of thier MIC.

Saw an online video from a Western source, the reason Ukrainian Airforce is still there cause of short take off/ landing distance and low maintenance requirement for the MIG 29, Su 25 and Mi17.

Such a benefit may not exist with say NATO aircraft like the F16, hence the US choose to integrate its weapons on the Mig 29 rather than send F16s, train the whole Ukrainian Airforce so Poland, Slovakia, Azerbaijan etc have all been made to give up Mig 29s tokeep the Ukrainian Airforce in the fight.

Plus one must remember the entire Soviet tanks with Ukraine plus Eastern Europe except Chech T 72s has been used up, so that's why Ukraine will soon move to only Western equipment. Further increasing the cost for the West.

Earlier in the war the Ukrainians fought with what the USSR/ Soviets had invested, now that period is over.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 12 Jan 2023 22:30

Alexander of Duran made a very interesting point, somewhat like this: At the start of this war, AFU had several 100s of tanks, arty, ICVs etc and millions of rounds of various munitions of Soviet/Russian type. Six months or so into the war, Russia destroyed all of that and along with a lot of soldiers experienced on operating and supporting them.

Now Ukraine is asking for (and getting some of) several 100s of tanks, arty, ICVs etc and millions of rounds of various munitions from the west, and they need to be rush trained on this zoo of equipment as Aditya_V aptly said above.

So, what is the likelihood that AFU can do a better job this time of holding on to their defensive lines or go beyond and push back the Russians all the way to pre-1991 borders?

Posed this way, the question of likely outcome of the ongoing war becomes quite simple to answer.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 13 Jan 2023 09:36

Been on holiday for a few days. My thought on some key events.

The battles of Soledar and Bakhmut have resulted in horrendous casualties for Ukraine. It suggests the Russian estimate if Ukrainian casualties is
more accurate than Ukraines. There are several videos of new graves being dug in Ukrainian towns, or videos of Ukrainian soldiers saying things like `my company had 80 men (itself understrength) and we were soon down to 30....'.
Several cases of frostbite from surrendered Ukie troops. Either they have shortages of winter clothing, despite NATO supplies, or, the troops are newbies, who get themselves wet in the cold. In the Russian army the worst display of incompetence would be getting frostbite.

Wagner group has defeated experienced Ukrainian formations in urban combat/ house to house fighting. They aren't a bunch of released convicts, as western media suggests.

The re-organisation of the Russian command puts the top 3 officers in charge of the operation. It is the equivalent of India having the COAS in overall command of a war against Pak. It also indirectly sidelines the head of Wagner, who was looking to have a bigger role for himself after the fall of Soledar, which a regular Russian airborne division (moved from Kherson) also took part in.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 13 Jan 2023 09:53

Things r looking good Deans.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 13 Jan 2023 12:30

All this noise in NATO countries about sending tanks and armoured vehicles etc is for the ~~next~~ last line of defense along the Sloviansk - Kramatorsk -Drujkivska - Kostiatinyvka route.
The Russians may need to push for a couple of weeks more to secure Soledar and Bakhmut, then mop up, de-mine , then rebuild and reorganise the defenses to face the other way. This may take all of Feb. Then it leaves a window of 2 months March and April for the Russians to attack Kramatorsk - the Death Star of Ukraine before spring thaw starts in May. Not enough time going by how long it took for Bakhmut.

If there are enough troops and equipment, the defenses built around Kramatorsk will enable AFU to resist Russian onslaught for months.

So that seems to be the idea NATO is pursuing.

Atleast the next wave of Ukrainien soldiers to die will die in shiny western gizmo coffins

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 13 Jan 2023 13:59

Youtube feed is now getting filled with Propaganda videos et la Goebbels like, Russian train with 5770 Soldiers completely blown up. 100 Russian tanks blown up, usually this happens when there is some battle field Fiasco for the Ukrainians.

Like the Bayraktar videos and how they are going destroy the entire Russian Army and how each street Europe was going to buy 1 Bayraktar and donate it to the Europeans, by April the Ukrainans did not even want the Bayraktar. 20000 USD Iranian drones are better than those USD 2 Million Bayraktars.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 13 Jan 2023 15:11

Cyrano wrote:Saw the Gen Bakshi video.

Gen Bakshi is great, but his enthusiasm gets the better of his perspective sometimes.

I interact with Gen Bakshi and this line sums up my view. There is no question about his passion and patriotism though.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 13 Jan 2023 16:18

There's talk in western media about Gen. Surovokin being `replaced' by Gen. Gerasimov, which implies Russia is confused/ strategy failing etc.

Surovikin is a 56 y.o 3 star General. He cannot be expected to command 500,000 men across a front stretching 2000+km. That has not been done at any time in military history by a 3 star general.

The new command structure is headed by 65 y.o 4 star general, (Gerasimov) who is moving from Dy minister of defense, to being the overall commander of the operation. He's among only 2 in the general staff who has actually commanded these many men. The other is Gen Salyukov who is CinC of the Army. Gerasimov will also command Belarus forces who are part of a joint Russia-Belarus group, as well as be in overall command of Wagner and Interior ministry forces.

Gen Aleksi Kim has also been appointed. The role is not mentioned, but since he is currently chief of the General staff, he will probably handle all staff work in the Ukrainian theatre (incl. logistics and manpower).

It seems to be a signal from Russia that this is going to be a long war.

bala · Post by **bala** » 13 Jan 2023 22:51

Russian forces have taken full control of the strategic Donbass town of Soledar

“The liberation of Soledar was completed on the evening of January 12,” the Russian Defense Ministry said during its daily briefing. The MOD added that the town is “important for the continuation of successful offensive actions.” According to the Defense Ministry, airborne troops blocked off Soledar from the north and the south, while aircraft and artillery carried out “concentrated strikes” on Ukrainian troops holed up there.

The MOD said the capture of the stronghold makes possible the cutting of supply lines to Ukrainian forces holding Artyomovsk, a bastion to the southwest of Soledar, which Kiev renamed Bakhmut.

The Soledar city had a pre-conflict population of around 10,500. It is part of Russia’s Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), but had been held by Ukrainian troops since 2014, when the DPR seceded from the country following a coup in Kiev. The DPR became part of Russia after holding a referendum in September.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 14 Jan 2023 01:02

FWIW :

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 14 Jan 2023 18:21

So UK is going to send about a dozen Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine. I suppose others will follow suit with Leopards. Maybe the Americans with M1s.

Tanks are maintenance intensive beasts… wonder how they are going to manage that logistical trail…

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 14 Jan 2023 18:24

I kind of hope the Germans send there tanks . They are out of service most of the time in any case .

Guddu · Post by **Guddu** » 14 Jan 2023 19:09

Hearing Indian ex military and other commentators, Russia has been given a bum rap for their incompetence. Yet, in the end Russia will win. As they say, the US will fight but only to the last Ukrainian. Here's an article which talks about what may be happening...or is it hopium ?
https://bmanalysis.substack.com/p/war-update-03f