Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[Avid]

Pentagon Investigates More Social-Media Posts Purporting to Include Secret U.S. Documents https://www.wsj.com/articles/pentagon-s ... ne-4d7524f

....
Well over 100 images, marked with “Top Secret” and other classifications indicating they represent highly sensitive U.S.-produced intelligence, were posted in the Discord message board of fans of the Minecraft computer game around March 1. While many of them were deleted recently, open-source intelligence researchers have managed to download more than 60 files.
....

Dozens of newly discovered images viewed by The Wall Street Journal contained highly valuable information for America’s adversaries, particularly Russia.
The documents, some of which appear to be briefing materials, outline details of the purported locations and operations of Ukraine’s air-defense systems, quantities of each type of air-defense missiles and sobering predictions of when Ukrainian forces would run out of each kind of munition.
....

Alternative link:
https://archive.is/2023.04.07-225100/ht ... ne-4d7524f

[IndraD]

UK intelligence says Russia has made significant gains in Bakhmut
what appears is western city is taken and Eastern side is fighting

[YashG]

^^^
UK Intelligence in Ukraine is a propaganda tool. I dont know how to accept what they are reporting. MOstly they talk about how Ukraine is decimating russia. Any russian gains reporting is so unnatural - unless it is some tool to send zelensky some message. I wonder.

[Pratyush]

They are compelled to tell the truth due to the nature of the facts emerging on the ground.

The Ukrainian president had stated that if Russia takes Bakhmut. Ukraine will have to enter negotiation with Russia.

There is only so much that can be concealed.

[YashG]

The Ukrainian president had stated that if Russia takes Bakhmut. Ukraine will have to enter negotiation with Russia.

Where? When?
Will like to read this more.

[ks_sachin]

^^^
UK Intelligence in Ukraine is a propaganda tool. I dont know how to accept what they are reporting. MOstly they talk about how Ukraine is decimating russia. Any russian gains reporting is so unnatural - unless it is some tool to send zelensky some message. I wonder.

Its called information warfare. It builds a narrative that people will believe.
We have used it to devastating impact in the last few years.

Why are you surprised?

[Roop]

Its called information warfare. It builds a narrative that people will believe.
We have used it to devastating impact in the last few years.

Why are you surprised?

Who are you talking about here? Who is "we"?

[Pratyush]

Where? When?
Will like to read this more.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/artic ... -zelenskyy

Tuesday March 28, 2023

THE FIGHT FOR BAKHMUT

Snip...

Our society will feel tired,” he said. “Our society will push me to have compromise with them

[IndraD]

Ukr army is blowing any tall building in Bakhmut now https://twitter.com/Spriter99880/status ... 12071?s=20

[Thakur_B]

Pentagon Investigates More Social-Media Posts Purporting to Include Secret U.S. Documents https://www.wsj.com/articles/pentagon-s ... ne-4d7524f

....
Well over 100 images, marked with “Top Secret” and other classifications indicating they represent highly sensitive U.S.-produced intelligence, were posted in the Discord message board of fans of the Minecraft computer game around March 1. While many of them were deleted recently, open-source intelligence researchers have managed to download more than 60 files.
....

Dozens of newly discovered images viewed by The Wall Street Journal contained highly valuable information for America’s adversaries, particularly Russia.
The documents, some of which appear to be briefing materials, outline details of the purported locations and operations of Ukraine’s air-defense systems, quantities of each type of air-defense missiles and sobering predictions of when Ukrainian forces would run out of each kind of munition.
....

Alternative link:
https://archive.is/2023.04.07-225100/ht ... ne-4d7524f

As per these leaks Ukrainian air defences are depleting fast and won't last till May end.

Russians will amplify the air campaign if that happens.

[Pratyush]

This puts into contrast the Russian's use of long range loitering munitions.

They have used those munitions as SAM sink. The Ukrainian's were given a dillima protect electricity infrastructure and run out of SAM or freeze.

[eklavya]

Military briefing: Ukraine’s ‘high-risk’ bid to breach Russia’s fortified frontline

Military briefing: Ukraine’s ‘high-risk’ bid to breach Russia’s fortified frontline
Spring counter-offensive requires high level of co-ordination between Kyiv’s military divisions

On one side will be around 35,000 Ukrainian soldiers, bolstered by western battle tanks. They will face more than 140,000 enemy troops along a 950km frontline. Separating the two forces will be a deadly obstacle course of mines, earthworks and tank-stopping bollards set by the Russians.

The day is soon approaching when Ukraine will attempt to breach Russia’s frontline fortifications. Nearly 14 months since President Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion, the stakes in this first phase of its spring counter-offensive could not be higher. Success or failure will shape the battlefield and determine the strength of Kyiv’s hand in any eventual negotiations with Moscow to resolve the conflict.

“To be strong in any talks, Ukraine must be strong on the battlefield,” as Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said earlier this year. “Let’s de-occupy the maximum [amount of territory] we can.”

But the fighting promises to be a hard slog, warn military officials and analysts. For one, breaching operations are exceptionally hard to perform as they require all military units — from artillery and tanks, to intelligence gathering and engineers — to work synchronously.

“It takes a giant orchestration of combined arms,” said Nick Gunnell, a former officer in Britain’s Royal Engineers who has extensive experience of breaching operations. “Everyone has to play a role. It’s very high risk.”

Adding to the difficulties is the Ukrainians’ lack of air superiority. The last big battle involving western tanks was in 2003 when a US-led coalition battled Iraqi forces equipped with Soviet-era T-72s. But the allied forces then were supported by ground attack aircraft and Apache helicopters.

On the ground, Ukrainian forces will have western supplied heavy weaponry such as British Challenger and German-made Leopard tanks, US-supplied Bradley fighting vehicles and self-propelled Archer howitzers.

But they will also lack decisive air cover to stop Russian fighter jet attacks that could, as Gunnell put it, “squash Ukraine’s specialist engineering vehicles” as they try to breach Russian fortifications. The west has so far resisted requests to provide Kyiv with advanced fighter jets such as US F-16s.

“The classic approach in a land offensive is to break out into the enemy rear, in one area or several, and deliver a concentrated blow against the enemy’s centre of gravity,” said Ben Barry, a former British armoured infantry battalion commander. “Successful examples without air superiority are rare,” he said, and cited Israel’s land attack on Egyptian positions in 1973 during the Yom Kippur war.

It is no secret that the counter-offensive is imminent. Ukraine’s defence ministry recently shared a video that showed soldiers learning how to use British weaponry with the captions: “For What? You’ll see. #SpringIsComing.”

By May, the ground will be firm enough for vehicle manoeuvres and more western-supplied armour, plus engineering equipment such as the armoured bridge layers in the US’s latest $2.6bn military aid package to Kyiv, will have arrived.

Exactly where the attack might take place remains a tightly guarded secret. One area seen as strategically vital to Russia is around Melitopol, near the Sea of Azov. A successful Ukrainian push here would split Russian forces in two, leaving one group in Crimea and the south, and another to the east. But the Russian army, aware of the risk, has already prepared serried lines of defences in the region.

The Russian defences typically consist of a minefield, followed by lines of pyramid-shaped concrete bollards called dragons’ teeth that slow down mechanised units. Another minefield lies beyond them, with a line of trenches and dugouts 400m further back, and an anti-tank ditch 500m behind that.

“You need to pick the most advantageous spot — although that is a very open-ended concept,” Gunnell said. “It may be where Ukraine has good logistics nearby, or at Russia’s weakest point — although that might be Ukraine’s weakest spot too.”

Either way, the first step is to fire a 200m hose packed with explosives that clears a 5-metre-wide lane of mines for tanks and other armour to traverse.

The next is to clear the dragons’ teeth, perhaps using tanks fitted with ploughs. The last step is to breach the ditches with specialist bridging equipment.

“It is all about momentum and speed,” said Gunnell. “But things always go wrong, so you have to be prepared. If a tank plough breaks down, it has to be recovered or a second lane prepared.”

The hardest part is synchronising the various parts — and Ukraine’s army, while adept at small-scale manoeuvres, has limited experience of combined arms operations at this scale, analysts said.

Furthermore, Ukraine’s forces have lost a large share of their most experienced soldiers, having suffered an estimated 120,000 casualties. Purportedly leaked US intelligence documents have suggested that the counteroffensive could fall “well short” of Kyiv’s goals.

Yet Ukraine’s army has been underestimated before, such as when it defied western military assessments last year and pushed back Russian forces from around the capital and then the northeastern city of Kharkiv. Russia has also lost almost twice as many men since the full-scale invasion, according to western assessments. Moreover, Ukrainian troops are better equipped and trained than their foes.

“If the Ukrainian attack is hard and fast and gets behind the Russians, the frontline will unravel and the Russians will run . . . just as they did during the counter-offensive around Kharkiv,” said Glen Grant, a former British army officer and adviser to the Ukrainian parliament’s defence committee.

If that happens, the defences that the Russians have prepared will also prove largely worthless, allowing more Ukrainian forces to pour through the cleared gap.

“It is an old maxim that undefended earthworks don’t kill you,” Grant added. “And then the Ukrainians will be able to just keep going for as long as their plans and logistics last.”

[Cyrano]

Looks like AFU is being pushed for one last self immolation blaze of glory!

[eklavya]

Sounds to me that they are being warned to not do it! I thought attackers needed advantage in numbers over defenders. Here they have a significant disadvantage. Will be grim.

[Aditya_V]

Or more likely they want to do 2 things

1. Make the Russians complacent
2. Setup public opinion in case it's a failure

The worst scenario for the West if the public opinion is setup for cake walk and the counter attack fails, best case scenario the Russians fold up. It's all in the balance.

[ks_sachin]

Its called information warfare. It builds a narrative that people will believe.
We have used it to devastating impact in the last few years.

Why are you surprised?

Who are you talking about here? Who is "we"?

India

[Trikaal]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sj9cN9yy00U

A good analysis of why Russia has struggled so much in this war. The video attributes it majorly to combat compliance.

[Aditya_V]

Time will tell but the linked video looks like pure propaganda, it makes a lot of assumptions and statements without facts, the Germans put the same claims against the Soviets in 1941-45 period which were later wrong. The US British have pushing such propoganda since the cold war. Even during the Vietnam war such claims were common.

[IndraD]

https://www.wionews.com/videos/russia-u ... ory-583029

The leader of the Russian paramilitary force Wagner group and someone believed to have President Vladimir Putin's ear, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has called for an end to the war in Ukraine. This he says should be done as Russia has achieved all of its planned goals in its special operation

[Deans]

https://www.wionews.com/videos/russia-u ... ory-583029

The leader of the Russian paramilitary force Wagner group and someone believed to have President Vladimir Putin's ear, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has called for an end to the war in Ukraine. This he says should be done as Russia has achieved all of its planned goals in its special operation

The actual article (in Russian, which I can read a fair bit) says no such thing.
He broadly says:
- Russia will not accept any agreement (imposed on it).
- The fortified regions of Russia will not be penetrated
- Russian people have never been broken.
- Either we beat back the coming counteroffensive and emerge the strongest, or lick our wounds and try again - in which case we won't negotiate.

[Aditya_V]

In a way it is good propaganda, large sections of the Public in US and Western Europe have bought the propaganda. When reality turns out different, it will lead to a lot introspection.

[vijayk]

[VishnuS]

Sounds to me that they are being warned to not do it! I thought attackers needed advantage in numbers over defenders. Here they have a significant disadvantage. Will be grim.

Bhai that is true, attackers needed to be at least 3:1 ratio wrt defenders.

But this is only for local situation, the numbers are skewed as we are looking at the entire front.

Also, tech plays a major role, if 300 leopards, Abrams, M60s & Challys March together, then there is nothing in Russian inventory that can stop them.

If you ask me, Ukraine is preparing for another mad dash like it had done on Kharkiv. This will probably break the will of Russia.

We have to wait and see how things will go

[Aditya_V]

Sounds to me that they are being warned to not do it! I thought attackers needed advantage in numbers over defenders. Here t

Also, tech plays a major role, if 300 leopards, Abrams, M60s & Challys March together, then there is nothing in Russian inventory that can stop them.

If Russian refences are manned with good number of , Well Mined pathways, ATGMs, Good defensive pillboxes, backed up good Ammo with Motors, Artillery MLRS and Russian Airforce FAB bombs and if the Russians have enough Satellite , UAVs etc , it can turn out to be very bad for the Ukrainians . In the Kharkiv offensives the Russians were in Kherson, the limited Manpower 180 k troops with which they launched the SMO was their undoing, With Troop rotation and such a huge front , it was an ideal situation for the NATO- Ukraine. The reality is that for such a huge advances the Ukraine had a really low number of Russian KIA, POW's or even Equipment.

Since then the Russians have mobilized 300K men fine tuned their Strategies.

The Russians started this war with a very stupid assumption, that Ukraine with Negotiate if they show they are serious and NATO will also see reason.

The fact is they are just doubling down irrespective of the consequences, Ukraine is being sacrified, Western Europe economies are paying a heavy price. US Logistics, AEW is being run into the Ground.

IF China with its power and threats gets SOKO and Taiwan now, US will become very weak, the Neocons are not thinking rationally here.

I feel June 23- Sep-23 , when summer conditions are roads are dry, we will know who will win the war. Russians or the Ukrainians, it all building up with the Stalingrad type fighting in Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Maryinka. I just hope for the Ukrainians like in Kursk 1943 they do not delay the offensive too much for German Leopards( an animal also known as the Panther).

[williams]

Sounds to me that they are being warned to not do it! I thought attackers needed advantage in numbers over defenders. Here they have a significant disadvantage. Will be grim.

Bhai that is true, attackers needed to be at least 3:1 ratio wrt defenders.

But this is only for local situation, the numbers are skewed as we are looking at the entire front.

Also, tech plays a major role, if 300 leopards, Abrams, M60s & Challys March together, then there is nothing in Russian inventory that can stop them.

If you ask me, Ukraine is preparing for another mad dash like it had done on Kharkiv. This will probably break the will of Russia.

We have to wait and see how things will go

If at all Russian air power needs to be demonstrated, this is the time to do it. It is really hard to believe if the west is helping Ukraine to stage this, they would do so without any air support. I think Russia needs to be very careful if they think they have air superiority. There is a nasty surprise coming is my speculation.

[Aditya_V]

Definitely, the West must be planning something, we have to see how this plays out.

[drnayar]

Definitely, the West must be planning something, we have to see how this plays out.

Not to mention China , they could just be overt on their support to Russia and keep the west bogged down in ukraine while they move onto a whole scale invasion of Taiwan., two can play that game !.. and sanctions against China ? .. that would be hilarious

[Pratyush]

The leaks appear to be an extremely elaborate disinformation campaign.

This has been going on since late December. When the Ukrainian chief of defence staff gave his interview to the economist.

After which we started seeing the whole drama about dilivery of tanks and other vehicles to Ukraine.

But I think that the Russians have totally checked out of paying any attention to what the west is saying about this topic.

[drnayar]

The leaks appear to be an extremely elaborate disinformation campaign.

This has been going on since late December. When the Ukrainian chief of defence staff gave his interview to the economist.

After which we started seeing the whole drama about dilivery of tanks and other vehicles to Ukraine.

But I think that the Russians have totally checked out of paying any attention to what the west is saying about this topic.

And they have made some statements to that effect as well., ref to one of my previous posts, the whole episode is a downright disinfo campaign to gauge reactions and policies

[Pratyush]

That could be it. If you believe what is being said by some retired US intelligence operatives on the judging freedom show on you tube. Then the leaks are designed to create an off ramp for the Biden admin.

[Pratyush]

Snip...

Also, tech plays a major role, if 300 leopards, Abrams, M60s & Challys March together, then there is nothing in Russian inventory that can stop them.

If you ask me, Ukraine is preparing for another mad dash like it had done on Kharkiv. This will probably break the will of Russia.

The Russians have enough ATGM to make short work of this 300 tank force. Both as ground launched applications and launched from the attack help fleet.

They have an elaborate ISR & Strike complex designed to kill targets. Orlan 10 coupled with Karsnopole is going to make short work of any tank. Same goes for the Lancet. Or whatever the current Russian equivalent to the Shahid 136. It has re attack capacity.

Things are about to get very ugly.

WRT, breaking Russian will. Russia is a funny country. In the last century or so. It has alternated between not fighting to the bitter end to fighting to the last man.

In 91 they gave up. So by there previous performance measures. They are about to clobber NATO in Ukraine.

Another historical parallel that springs to mind.

1812 a French emperor with Europe prostate at his feet, marched on Russia. Did not end well for him.

1941 the Fureher with Europe prostate at his feet, marched on Russia. Did not end well for him.

2004, the US with the triumph of 91, decided to meddle in Ukraine and Georgia. Russia clobbered Georgia in 2008. US knowing Russian concerns about Ukraine, decided to overthrow an elected government 6 months before the next elections. Thereby setting the stage for this conflict.

Did I mention that Europe is prostate at the feet of the US today.

[eklavya]

Also, tech plays a major role, if 300 leopards, Abrams, M60s & Challys March together, then there is nothing in Russian inventory that can stop them.

If you ask me, Ukraine is preparing for another mad dash like it had done on Kharkiv. This will probably break the will of Russia.

We have to wait and see how things will go

Indeed, wait and see! From The Economist:

Ukraine’s counter-offensive is drawing near
Its Western allies want success—but not too much
Apr 16th 2023

“Break the spine!” shouts the man in Russian, chiding his colleague. “What, you’ve never cut a head off before?” The video shows what appears to be a knife-wielding Russian soldier beheading a Ukrainian one alive. “Put it in a ****** bag,” demands another voice, “and send it to his commander.” The footage, posted by a popular Russian far-right account on Telegram, a social media site, on April 11th, provoked outrage in Ukraine. “Everyone must react,” said Volodymyr Zelensky, the country’s president. “We are not going to forget anything.” Mr Zelensky’s army will soon have a shot at revenge.

A Ukrainian counter-offensive is due in the coming days or weeks. Almost no one knows precisely where or when it will come. Only five officials have all the details, noted Oleksiy Danilov, Ukraine’s security chief, on April 6th. But Russian troops are braced. On April 12th British defence intelligence said that Russia had finished building three layers of defensive lines along 120km (75 miles) of the front line in Zaporizhia province in anticipation of a Ukrainian assault towards Melitopol (see satellite imagery, which depicts dragon’s teeth anti-tank obstacles stretching south-east along the P37 highway from Shyroke). Conquering Melitopol would help Ukraine sever Russia’s land bridge between the occupied regions of Donbas and Crimea.

Ukraine’s offensive force consists of at least a dozen brigades (some sources say up to 18), nine of which have been armed and supplied by Western allies (a brigade tends to be several thousand men). Those nine are due to have more than 200 tanks, 800 other armoured vehicles and 150 pieces of field artillery in total, according to American intelligence documents which leaked onto the internet in early March and widely circulated in April. It is a large force but with some glaring weaknesses.

The majority of its vehicles have little or no armour. The amount of artillery is relatively modest—the 21st brigade appears to have just ten guns allocated to it. Notably, the newest equipment is spread thinly across units rather than concentrated in a few. Ukraine might make changes to its order of battle in response to the leaks, but it cannot dismantle and reconstitute brigades that might have been training and preparing together for weeks or months.

One problem for Ukraine is how to achieve surprise. If it masses its forces at a particular spot, Russia might detect those preparations and shore up its lines accordingly. That puts a premium on deception, notes Mick Ryan, a retired Australian major-general. Ukraine will have to conceal troop concentrations, headquarters and logistics hubs. “It could also mean we will see lots of smaller mini-offensives rather than a couple of large ones,” says Mr Ryan, “just to confuse the Russian targeting cycle and to deceive them about Ukraine’s main effort.” Ukraine has some experience of this: it cleverly used last summer’s first counter-offensive in Kherson to distract from a surprise attack in Kharkiv in the east.

If Ukraine can achieve tactical surprise, the next question is whether it can punch through Russian defences and then send more forces quickly through the gap. It will need mobile air defences to keep Russian planes at bay; it is not clear if it has enough. It will also have to cross rivers and minefields—obstacles which have consumed entire Russian brigades in the east—as well as a formidable network of Russian trenches and fortifications (see map). “There is no military endeavour that is more difficult to plan, orchestrate and execute than combined-arms obstacle breaching,” says Mr Ryan.

In theory, precision artillery can quickly take out prepared defences, says Ben Barry of iiss, a think-tank, pointing to Britain’s use of multiple-launch rocket systems to destroy bunkers in Afghanistan. But that requires expert synchronisation of artillery, infantry and armour so that troops advance neither too early, while the defences are intact, nor too late, when Russia’s rear echelon has reinforced the site of a barrage.

To date, Ukraine’s army has largely conducted sequential operations—first artillery fire, then a ground advance—rather than these more demanding co-ordinated ones, says Franz-Stefan Gady, a military analyst conducting fieldwork in the country. That is in part because of rigid Soviet-style commanders and a lack of combined-arms training at scale, he says. Improving Ukraine’s command and control has been a priority for Western officials helping to train and advise Ukrainian generals in Germany over recent weeks.

The timing of an offensive is also uncertain. Weather is one factor. American intelligence analysts reckon that the ground in eastern Ukraine will remain muddy until early May. Kit is another. A third of the Western-supplied brigades are not due to be fully equipped and trained until the end of April. Ukraine’s general staff could launch a staged attack, with some brigades thrown in later as they arrive, says Mr Barry, but might choose to “save it all up for a big bang”, maximising the pressure on Russian defences. Waiting for too long will also allow Russia to dig in further and replenish ammunition.

Western officials familiar with Ukraine’s preparations are unsure how everything will pan out. It is vital, they say, that Ukrainian forces have the confidence to keep moving forward. Russia’s layered defences are designed to lure advancing columns into “kill zones” covered by pre-sighted artillery. If troops panic and freeze up, they could be decimated. But there are also concerns about the opposite: an unexpected collapse of Russian forces that puts Ukraine’s army at the mouth of Crimea, in a position to seal off the peninsula, attack Russian ports and bases there and deny the Sea of Azov to Russian ships. Large pockets of Russian troops could also be trapped in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts.

Such a humiliation is deemed unlikely—a leaked assessment by the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) predicts only “marginal” gains for either side this year—but not impossible. Many Ukrainian officials would welcome it. But some Western ones are concerned that a serious rout would destabilise Russia to a dangerous degree, making it harder for the Kremlin to swallow any negotiations that might follow. Far preferable, they say, for Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, to order a semi-voluntary retreat, as he did from the west bank of the Dnieper river in Kherson province in November. The aim is not to defeat Mr Putin militarily but to persuade him that recovering the lost territory would require wave after wave of politically risky mobilisation.

That will not be easy. Mr Putin is thought to remain convinced that time is on his side. He has reinforced failure at every turn, sticking with the war after his defeat at the gates of Kyiv and then frittering away hundreds of thousands of mobilised recruits on a futile offensive around the town of Bakhmut since January. The DIA assessment, first published by the Washington Post, says that even if Ukraine were to inflict “unsustainable losses on Russian forces”, Russia would prefer to conduct a fresh mobilisation rather than enter negotiations. On April 12th Russia’s parliament passed a new law allowing the defence ministry to issue electronic—rather than physical—summons for military service, making it easier to dragoon recruits. Another round seems inevitable.

Ukraine may not get another shot. It can sustain a counteroffensive through the spring and perhaps into the summer, says Michael Kofman of CNA, a think-tank. But it will burn through ammunition and men in the process, he warns, and this could be the “high-water mark” of Western aid. America’s election and shortages of equipment will impose growing constraints. The coming months could be the decisive period of the war. ■

[Avid]

IMHO, if the The Economist is skeptical of a UKR victory -- then it would appear that West has decided to start laying the groundwork for UKR memorial.

[Rakesh]

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1 ... 80160?s=20 ---> “For a rare picture of Russian military competence, consider the Kremlin’s battlefield electronic-warfare troops.” Jamming is so good, the mainstream media was praising the electronic warfare troops for a while already.

[Rakesh]

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1 ... 52128?s=20 ---> “American officials believe Russian jamming is causing the JDAMs, and at times other American weapons such as guided rockets, to miss their mark.” Could also explain why HIMARS is barely a thing anymore … without GPS it’s just an astronomically expensive MLRS!

[Cyrano]

Those 200 tanks are not all there in Ukraine. May be 50-60, then the armoured vehicles are mostly wheeled, and includes tin boxes like humvees, artillery pieces number may be right but will be of different makes and calibres. All this equipment collection will be manned by hastily trained troops with no combined arms offensive experience that can bring to bear the full potential of the theoretical force that could be generated, and focus it in one or two places to punch through Russian defense lines. Even assuming they do that, this motley collection of equipment cannot be serviced in the field. It will be a miracle if they can advance 50km into Russian held territory. Then what? They will be exhausted sitting ducks for second echelon of Russian forces waiting for them. AFU can achieve no surprise coz Russian satellites are watching as well, and there can only be half a dozen places where any meaningful thrust by AFU is possible. It's really sick on the part of the US to send some more thousands of Ukrainien men to certain death for no defined objective. And terribly foolish and tragic for Ukranians to end up getting crushed between two major powers. Alas some lessons can only be learnt the hard way.

[Roop]

Those 200 tanks are not all there in Ukraine. May be 50-60 ...

I agree with your post, but want to address this issue in particular: claims of "200 tanks" are ridiculous bombast, nothing else. That number would make up a whole armoured division. IMO even 60 is an impossibility. I'll give you 45 to 50 at best (i.e. an armoured regiment).

Those who have been following reliable sources for the last few months (i.e. not CNN / BBC / The Economist or news announcements from the Pentagon / State Dept.) know that there has been a great hemming and hawing, mumbling and foot-shuffling from NATO countries about the supply of these tanks to Ukraine. America, the Mighty Khan, can supply no tanks until the end of this year, because they have to start up the factory assembly-line again. Poland, the raving warmonger with a big army, can supply maybe a dozen tanks. The UK, the raving warmonger with the tiny army, can supply maybe a half-dozen. France can supply the other half-dozen. Germany originally said they couldn't send any, until probably Victoria Nuland got in touch with Scholz and said, "Look, Fritz, if you think the Nordstream pipeline was bad, just wait till you see what we have planned for your car factories, if you don't get with the program". Et voila, a miracle! Germany suddenly discovered they did have a half-dozen or so tanks they could spare. Spain had its arm twisted, and announced it would send three tanks. Portugal -- one tank. Canada -- well, its Clown Prince of a PM said they were going to send some tanks, God only knows how many.

Throw this all together in a mixing bowl, add tank crews from NATO countries (because the Yukies sure as hell can't magically conjure up the required crews), stir thoroughly, bake for an hour at 300 degrees and I'll give you an armoured regiment at most (45 to 48 tanks). A whole new armoured division?!! Please stop the heavy drinking and smoking of hashish.

[Cyrano]

The US also realises this offensive will be highly vulnerable to Russian air attacks. Scramble going on to get a few soviet jets Mig29s mostly to Ukraine to put up some resistance above ground. But they too need munitions and missiles else will become target practice.

Prigorjin, head of Wagner reportedly said AFU has kept 200K troops hidden away, saving them for this offensive. Could be true since there have been lots of reports of fresh conscripts being sent to Bakhmut during the past few months. But even then, not all will be front line assault troops who can breach Russian defenses and infantry that can hold against flank attacks.

AFU will be under great pressure to show territorial gains, and Russians will draw them in and close in behind them, and RuAF will pound rearward bases to prevent them from reaching the encircled assault brigades. Classic battle scenario that's been played out since Mongol times.

I only wish the encircled AFU units will surrender and save their lives.

In parallel, we can expect Ukr to make creative drone or missile attacks on Zhaporizhiye NPP, Crimea, border towns like Belgorod which will be mostly done by NATO operatives. But that will change nothing.

If they attack Belorussia then Kiev with be hit with missiles, this time the "bank" won't be spared.

That's the best case scenario for this is offensive. It doesn't seem anyone in the US govt is capable of thinking beyond that.

[YashG]

As per what I read in news reports - tanks delivered till now
Poland 10
Germany 18
UK 14

[MeshaVishwas]

Don't care much about other tanks but I badly want to see the Challenger 2 burnt to the ground by the Ruskies.
All 14 at the earliest.
Take out the recovery vehicle too, just so that these glib rats can no longer claim zero losses on that as well.