Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 17 Apr 2023 17:58

It would seem that Poland and Hungary has banned the import of food grains from Ukraine in violation of EU laws. So much for unity, Poland being opportunistic as usual. It’s a matter of time before they do a land grab as well.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65292698

Unconfirmed reports say that Ukraine is buying fuel from Russia: not directly of course, but with a mix bribe taking Ukranian officials and middlemen means that the fuel ends up with Ukraine…

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 17 Apr 2023 20:16

India, Russia talk free trade deal in step-up of relations https://www.reuters.com/world/india-rus ... 023-04-17/

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 18 Apr 2023 00:48

Cyrano wrote:No statements from our Foreign ministry about sending medical supplies to Ukraine they requested, nothing on inviting Beggarsky to G20. Unless I missed something, this total lack of coverage and no statements is the best way to tell Ukraine where they really stand.

There was a brief statement about inter alia school buses, medicines and medical equipment. Diplomatic triumph for Ukraine.

Official visit of the First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine to India (April 10-12, 2023)

Official visit of the First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine to India (April 10-12, 2023)
April 12, 2023

The First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, H.E. Ms Emine Dzhaparova visited New Delhi from 10- 12 April 2023. This was her first official visit to India.

2. During the visit, Ms. Dzhaparova held bilateral talks with Shri Sanjay Verma, Secretary (West), MEA. Bilateral agenda included - spheres such as economic, defence, humanitarian assistance, and global issues of mutual interest. She briefed Secretary (West) about the prevailing situation in Ukraine. The two sides agreed to hold the next round of Foreign Office Consultations in Kyiv on a mutually convenient date.

3. On the issue of Indian medical students, the Deputy FM mentioned that Ukraine will allow foreign medical students to take the Unified State Qualification Exam in their country of domicile.

4. The Ukrainian Deputy FM also proposed that rebuilding infrastructure in Ukraine could be an opportunity for Indian companies. Secretary (West) shared that India has provided medicines, medical equipments and would provide school buses etc. to Ukraine.

5. Ms. Dzhaparova also called on Minister of State for External Affairs and Culture, Smt Meenakshi Lekhi. Besides holding discussion on a wide range of bilateral and international issues of mutual interest, she handed over a letter from President Zelenskyy, addressed to Prime Minister Modi. Ukrainian request for additional humanitarian supply, including medicines and medical equipments was also shared by her. It was agreed that the next Inter-Governmental Commission between the two countries would be held in India on a mutually convenient date.

6. Ms. Dzhaparova visited the Manohar Parrikar - Institute of Defence Studies, and also delivered a talk at the Indian Council of World Affairs.

7. Ms Dzhaparova, during her visit, highlighted Ukraine's desire to build a stronger and closer relationship with India. Ms. Dzhaparova's visit to India would facilitate cooperation between the two countries.

New Delhi
April 12, 2023

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 18 Apr 2023 15:44

A few school buses = diplomatic triumph?! India is willing to listen to her out of courtesy, and for having cooperated to some extent in evacuating thousands of Indian students last year, we have agreed to provide medical aid again. Our EAM flew out to Mozambique, Modi didn't meet her, he is known to break protocol at times, and most tellingly no invite to G20 despite all the pleading.

India intervened last year when Ukraine was shelling Zhaporizhiye NPP upon Russian behest and pulled IAEA into the matter, which led to IAEA inspectors visiting the ZNPP and posting observers there and then the shelling calmed down, though AFU has attempted special forces attacks on ZNPP several times since then. India also knows the reality of the grain deal and who profited from it.

MEA has been professional as per protocol and strictly neutral which is actually being very cold, because when India is warm to a foreign country it's visiting diplomats are treated as per "atithi devo bhava".

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 18 Apr 2023 18:07

With President Xi and President Putin asserting their “right” to beat and bully their neighbours into submission, India’s natural sympathies in this conflict are with Ukraine. We treat our weaker neighbours far far better. However, a very large proportion of our military and strategic hardware comes from Russia, and China is next door, and waiting for an opportunity to grab more land from India. Plus, one must not forget the discounted oil supplies from Russia. In these very complex and challenging conditions, it doesn’t make sense to make too much pageantry and noise when a Ukrainian diplomat visits New Delhi. Her very presence in New Delhi is a triumph for Ukraine. But India’s direction of travel is clear; the Vayu Sena has been exercising heavily with the UK, France and the US (all in the last few weeks, and ongoing), which are all Ukraine allies. B-1Bs in Bangalore. It all adds up to drifting away from Xi-Putin, and who can can blame India for that.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 18 Apr 2023 18:43

not to mention Z expected he will be invited to open g20 meet with a spectacular speech ..obviously his advances were declined and he was asked to better seek Oscar type platform

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 18 Apr 2023 19:02

Ekalavya,
Suggest you look up and sit through webcast of Jacques Baud, former Swiss intelligence officer, who worked for NATO in various capacities, including in Ukraine. Though not the only one, he is by far the most comprehensive analyst of the Ukraine situation. Might help you acquire a better perspective of what's going on.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 19 Apr 2023 14:48

Cyrano wrote:Ekalavya,
Suggest you look up and sit through webcast of Jacques Baud...

Apart from what he has written, is there any interview on youtube or elsewhere in English (which he speaks) or sub-titled that you are aware of? If yes, please link - I've been looking with limited success.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 19 Apr 2023 15:23

Have you seen John Mearshimer lecture on Ukraine and Russia over the last 7 years.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... story.html

Opinion by Henry A. KissingerMarch 5, 2014

Writing back in 2014 Kissinger was advocating accomodation in Ukraine.

In 2022 he is saying that Ukraine was justified in seeking joining NATO.

Or are you looking for something else.

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 19 Apr 2023 15:44

JE Menon wrote:
Cyrano wrote:Ekalavya,
Suggest you look up and sit through webcast of Jacques Baud...
Apart from what he has written, is there any interview on youtube or elsewhere in English (which he speaks) or sub-titled that you are aware of? If yes, please link - I've been looking with limited success.

Most of his interviews are in French but there was one in English a few months ago that I posted in this thread IIRC. Can't find it on YouTube search now. It might still be out there somewhere...

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 19 Apr 2023 16:08

Here is one with at least English subtitles:

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 19 Apr 2023 19:25

As empires collapse and retreat, opportunists will always be there to expand their spheres of influence. If it wasn't Putin, it would be someone else who would assume title of game master. Deification is a good business.

Avid · Post by **Avid** » 19 Apr 2023 23:14

A good listen (1.25X playback speed is recommended)

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 20 Apr 2023 00:23

The President of Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, speaking in Poland, earlier today. He explains well why Europe will continue to resist Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

80th anniversary of the uprising in the Warsaw ghetto

The most important lesson to be learned from our history is: Never again! Nigdy więcej! !לעולם לא עוד Never again racist fanaticism, never again unbridled nationalism, never again a barbaric war of aggression. Never again – this is the basis of our shared Europe. All of us here joining in remembrance today believe in our shared future and our shared values: the respect for international law, the peaceful coexistence of all human beings in freedom and democracy.

With Vladimir Putin’s illegal attack on a peaceful, democratic neighbouring country, he has made a mockery of these values and destroyed the foundations of our European security order. The Russian President has violated international law, called borders into question, committed land grabs. This war is bringing immeasurable suffering, violence, destruction and death to the people in Ukraine.

In Poland, in Israel, you know from your history that freedom and independence must be fought for and defended. You know how important it is for a democracy to show that it is vigilant and capable of defending itself.

Yet we Germans, too, have learned the lessons from our past. Never again: that means that there must be no brutal war of aggression in Europe like that waged by Russia against Ukraine. Never again: that means that we stand firmly by the side of Ukraine – together with Poland and our other allies. We are providing Ukraine with humanitarian, political and military support – together with Poland and our other allies. Never again: that means that we, the liberal democracies, are strong when we act together and in unity.

This is what I mean when I speak of the responsibility imposed by our history. We Germans will fulfil this responsibility for defending peace and freedom. And I am convinced that our countries, our liberal democracies, have grown even closer in the past months. Our friendship now rests on an even firmer foundation.

Here in this square, by the memorial to the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising, I stand before you in grief and humility. I affirm our responsibility for the crimes of the past and our responsibility for our shared future!

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 20 Apr 2023 00:27

IndraD wrote:not to mention Z expected he will be invited to open g20 meet with a spectacular speech ..obviously his advances were declined and he was asked to better seek Oscar type platform

IMO, as cynical as it sounds, one reason to play Naatu Naatu on Oscar stage was they could show Ukraine palace in the background

Cyrano · Post by **Cyrano** » 20 Apr 2023 13:21

Ironic then that Steinmeier has not found it easy to mention Russia's efforts in slaying the Nazi monster. Selective lessons from history it seems.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 20 Apr 2023 16:00

^^^
Poland was first the victim of the Nazi invasion, facilitated in no small part by the Soviet-Nazi Molotov-Ribbentrop pact (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov–Ribbentrop_Pact),the brutal Katyn massacre carried out by Soviet troops, and then a 45 year occupation by the Soviets. You want Russia to be mentioned on Polish soil for such “efforts” and “lessons from history”.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 20 Apr 2023 16:14

Poland and Russia are never going to be at peace with each other anytime soon.

They are looking to right historical wrongs and not live and let live.

gakakkad · Post by **gakakkad** » 20 Apr 2023 16:26

^ it's widely agreed that the Ribbentrop pact was a bilateral deception . Hitler wanted to use the pact to surprise Stalin with the invasion . And Stalin wanted to not be overtly hostile at that time as he did not want to he the first country to be invaded . He also tried to convince world powers of Hitler's intention but no one would listen to him .

Also before Soviet troops liberated one of the concentration camps ,no one knew the true horrors of what Hitler was doing .

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 20 Apr 2023 19:04

Like today the Poles and Russians hated each other, and Stalin's Miltary Career was cut short and retreat humiliatingly after the Polish Soviet war in 1921. After the German victory against the Russian empire, Finish secession, defeat against Poland in 1921, the Soviets were seen as Pushovers and Stalin himself not confident in 1939, the 1938 Munich agreement was seen as betrayal as The French did not enforce the agreement between the Czechoslovaks, Soviets to come to their aide. Poland in 1938 acted as Hitlers ally , publicly stating it will not allow Soviet soldiers to pass through and defend Czechoslovakia.

In fact the British initially wanted Poland and Nazis to align and go after the Soviets, Poland also hoped for that but Hitler had other ideas.

Like today there were soo many assumptions, propaganda and mistakes. This can easily spiral out of control, both sides have just doubled down over the last 8 years. if both sides go for all or nothing , this will get nasty.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 20 Apr 2023 20:56

Cyrano wrote:Here is one with at least English subtitles:

Thank you.

Hriday · Post by **Hriday** » 21 Apr 2023 11:59

Two predictions related to Ukraine war. Some parts of the predictions already happening now, so sharing it.

A poem written in 1922 by a saint in India says that after few years of war Russia will use nuclear weapons (''arrow of destruction''). War is over 1 year now and continuing. Screenshots of this prediction given below.

Yogananda, author of 'Autobiography of a Yogi' predicted that,

1. In a 3rd world war, Russia will be annihilated, Europe will be devastated and America too will suffer heavily but survive.

2. Before 3rd world war leftist ideas would spread to west.
The recent incident of European Union president threatening right wing Italian president could be related to it.

3. A depression greater than in 1936 would happen in USA, and dollar will not be worth the paper (hyper inflation).

In Twitter I am now seeing a lot of knowledgeable people commenting that dollar going to suffer in coming years because of reckless printing. One factor of dollars strength is that it is used as a reserve currency by other countries. Now suddenly many countries are opening non dollar based international trading accounts. India just opened vostro accounts with 18 countries for non dollar international trade.

ks_sachin · Post by **ks_sachin** » 21 Apr 2023 12:37

Oh nice.....

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 21 Apr 2023 18:04

Your place is in NATO, alliance chief tells Ukraine on first wartime visit
https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-je ... ussia/amp/

viktor orban resonds https://twitter.com/PM_ViktorOrban/stat ... 74720?s=20

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 21 Apr 2023 18:23

Russian Arms Sales to India Stall on Fears Over US Sanctions
India payments for Russia military equipment stuck for a year
Impasse threatens to hurt India’s readiness on China border
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ify%20wall

Avid · Post by **Avid** » 21 Apr 2023 20:00

IndraD wrote:Russian Arms Sales to India Stall on Fears Over US Sanctions
India payments for Russia military equipment stuck for a year
Impasse threatens to hurt India’s readiness on China border
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ify%20wall

Russia cannot afford to get cozy with PRC at the expense of India.
Russia needs India as a counterbalance for PRC as much as US does.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 22 Apr 2023 09:50

>>Russia needs India as a counterbalance for PRC as much as US does.

This is absolutely correct. Ultimately, it will be a tripolar balance in Eurasia, with the core EU becoming the fourth pole that will lend a fuller stability if it wishes to. The tripolar balance will be stable on its own, though.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 22 Apr 2023 22:53

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 23 Apr 2023 08:21

Avid wrote:Russia cannot afford to get cozy with PRC at the expense of India.

Even without being 'at the expense of India', Russia cannot afford to be cozy with PRC.
So, in strategic timeframe, yes. But, in tactical timeframe, it is a different story and that is where Indian interests vis-a-vis Russia need to be guarded.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 23 Apr 2023 08:36

IndraD wrote:Russian Arms Sales to India Stall on Fears Over US Sanctions
India payments for Russia military equipment stuck for a year
Impasse threatens to hurt India’s readiness on China border
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ify%20wall

We seem to have no sense whatsoever and will always spend billions to save millions.

Avid · Post by **Avid** » 24 Apr 2023 20:05

Karan M wrote:
IndraD wrote:Russian Arms Sales to India Stall on Fears Over US Sanctions
India payments for Russia military equipment stuck for a year
Impasse threatens to hurt India’s readiness on China border
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ify%20wall
We seem to have no sense whatsoever and will always spend billions to save millions.

Looks like the Russians are considering shifting production to India as a way to overcome the payment problem.

Link below starts at 2:02
https://youtu.be/4WmbbB5sbCM?t=122

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 24 Apr 2023 21:10

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/2 ... e-00093384
Biden’s team fears the aftermath of a failed Ukrainian counteroffensive
Behind closed doors, the administration worries about what Ukraine can accomplish.

The Biden administration is quietly preparing for the possibility that if Ukraine’s spring counteroffensive falls short of expectations, critics at home and allies abroad will argue that America has come up short, too.

Ukraine’s ever-imminent counteroffensive will attempt to retake Russian-seized territory most likely in the east and south, though for operational reasons no senior officials from Kyiv have detailed specifics.

Ukraine has hoped to sever Russia’s land bridge to Crimea and U.S. officials are now skeptical that will happen, according to two administration officials familiar with the assessment. But there are still hopes in the Pentagon that Ukraine will hamper Russia’s supply lines there, even if a total victory over Russia’s newly fortified troops ends up too difficult to achieve.

Moreover, U.S. intelligence indicates that Ukraine simply does not have the ability to push Russian troops from where they were deeply entrenched — and a similar feeling has taken hold about the battlefield elsewhere in Ukraine, according to officials. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the U.S. hasn’t adequately armed his forces properly and so, until then, the counteroffensive can’t begin.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 24 Apr 2023 21:28

During the early days of this SMO i had gotten into an argument with some Ukrainian supporter online.

I told that clown, that if Ukraine is dependent on the support of outsiders to hold the ground against Russia. Then it's cause is lost. Because it's success will be dependent on the ability and willingness of outsiders to support it.

Unless the last few months have been the most elaborate information warfare operation. It's clear that the west has reached the limit of what it can do for Ukraine.

It's not going to end well for the them.

drnayar · Post by **drnayar** » 25 Apr 2023 03:10

Pratyush wrote:During the early days of this SMO i had gotten into an argument with some Ukrainian supporter online.

I told that clown, that if Ukraine is dependent on the support of outsiders to hold the ground against Russia. Then it's cause is lost. Because it's success will be dependent on the ability and willingness of outsiders to support it.

Unless the last few months have been the most elaborate information warfare operation. It's clear that the west has reached the limit of what it can do for Ukraine.

It's not going to end well for the them.

A good idea would be to look at how uk is reacting...right now they have tested a universal alarm system for the entire population. More likely the west will push the threshold

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 25 Apr 2023 05:04

So why is China talking like this now?

Beijing's backpedaling seems to indicate the Chinese ambassador spoke too much. Will he be recalled?

I don't see how China benefits from the comments by their ambassador.

Ambassador may just be saying what everyone in Beijing thinks -- but even then, it's not always diplomatic to say what you think.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 25 Apr 2023 14:39

Imagine Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and or Kazakhstan - from this statement, you would think you are up for Chinese invasion based on that statement

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 25 Apr 2023 15:13

That neatly makes it appealing for this nation's to be assimilated by Russians.

Study of the April 91 referendum showes that they would have been quite okay with a re formed union.

Ironically even the Ukrainians were open to being a part of the new union.

The August 91 communist coup made the continued union impossible.

sanman · Post by **sanman** » 26 Apr 2023 18:28

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 27 Apr 2023 19:15

is that how powerful a tv anchor was ?
Pentagon celebrate ouster of Tucker Carlson from Fox News, straight speaking on Ukraine war & refusing to toe WH propaganda said to be the main reason
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/2 ... r-00093819

MeshaVishwas · Post by **MeshaVishwas** » 30 Apr 2023 12:14

Ukrainian MoD on Twitter just went full retard.
Don't wish to post their sick post here
Handle is @DefenceU
Hatred of India and her culture seems widespread in this "1000 year old nation".