Assembly Elections - 2022 & 2023

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 10 May 2023 23:30

Atmavik wrote:
Cyrano wrote:Unless BJP gets strong and charismatic leaders at state level like Yogi or Hemanta, and a team that delivers under them, it will not be able to win comfortably. Easy to blame voters, hard to look into one own party.

+1

Generally speaking, the RSS lot are more disciplined and loyal in the northern states. In the south the ones who get to lead are the cash and carry kind and that is why no headway could be made in a crucial state like TN

The TN BJP, even today has a strong DMK faction, and an equally strong AIDMK faction, but until arrival of Annamalai, there was no BJP faction in the TN BJP

The so called leaders before Annamalai have all been shunted out as governors etc so as not to make waves in the local ecosystem and these people had tacitly ensured that the TN BJP forever remained the junior partner. Again Annamalai has asserted himself rather forcefully, and prevailed over the local partners

So, now the sheer power of a national party like the BJP has dawned on the local dravidians and they are scrambling to find cover

The DMK files has left all of them flustered and panicked

KAR BJP is now like a septic tank. All kinds of sewage has been allowed to flow into the body politic. The results are there for all to see.....

If the congis are allowed to rule in KAR, 2024 will become a tough battle because of the massive inflows of Vit M

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 11 May 2023 00:21

If one wades into a threadbare anal-y-sis, one finds that every neta in every party is ultimately their own "faction".

Let's see what the actual results are.

One can write copious amounts about the "rot in KA BJP". However, this time they took a good shot at introducing fresh blood. It's a process that will take time.

Better to give credit for courageous candidate selection and a great campaign, than repeat the same laundry list of known problems every year.

ritesh · Post by **ritesh** » 11 May 2023 11:58

Whatever little heard and read abt bbmp state of affairs, it's sad that local units either are inept or by design want to ride modi wave without doing the hard work on their own. Till when Modi supposed to bail them out?

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 11 May 2023 12:54

ritesh wrote: Till when Modi supposed to bail them out?

I get a feeling that Modi wave is also reaching its expiry date. It was obvious from the number of rallies and route marches with Modi & Shah did in KA. It was as if they were camping in the state and running from one place to another. The country's Home Minister doing election rallies when L&O situation was bad in Manipur was not good optics. It kind of gave a feeling that the local KA BJP leadership cannot do the heavy lifting this time around. And each time a state leadership uses Modi, and then loses elections it will impact the credibility of Modi as well.

All said and done honesty is not really an important criteria in KA politics. What I would like to see (if wishes were horses..

) is no one getting absolute majority and JDS joining hands with BJP. It would be a coalition government, JDS will milk the situation to the maximum, but it will keep secular Congress away. And if that does not happen, I hope Siddu v/s DKS fights begin at the earliest opportunity. Who gets the CM position would be the most important question.

RajaRudra · Post by **RajaRudra** » 11 May 2023 16:31

One of main reason people may not vote for BJP in Bangalore is roads. Horrible roads. Even still, if managed to win, then its nothing but end of tolerance to congress. I dont have any idea about other parts of Karnataka.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 11 May 2023 16:35

https://twitter.com/TodaysChanakya/stat ... 7824975872

Today's Chanakya @TodaysChanakya

#TCPoll
Karnataka 2023
Vote Projection
BJP 39% ± 3%
Cong 42% ± 3%
JDS 13% ± 3%
Others 6% ± 3%
#News24TodaysChanakyaAnalysis

https://twitter.com/TodaysChanakya/stat ... 6724170754

Today's Chanakya @TodaysChanakya
#TCPoll
Karnataka 2023
Seat Projection
BJP 92 ± 11 Seats
Cong 120 ± 11 Seats
JDS 12 ± 7 Seats
Others 0 ± 3 Seats
#News24TodaysChanakyaAnalysis

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 11 May 2023 17:57

RajaRudra wrote:One of main reason people may not vote for BJP in Bangalore is roads. Horrible roads. Even still, if managed to win, then its nothing but end of tolerance to congress. I dont have any idea about other parts of Karnataka.

For Bangalore it is always infrastructure but yet the mega city has one of the lowest voter count every election! Even this election with 73% voter turnout in KAR, Bangalore ended the day with just 52% turnout.

In rest of Karnataka, or atleast the other parts of old mysore and coastal karnataka, roads were built in every village, town and neighborhood, but two things that struck out - the government waited until the last few months to begin building instead of doing it progressively throughout their term, and when they hurriedly completed the roads, many viral videos went out showing the pathetic quality of construction which did not help the cause. Modi campaigning even in small towns was perhaps to stop this from becoming a Congress wave election.

Also, people claiming it was brave of BJP to introduce 54 new candidates this election, how does it help when many of those names are absolute unknowns ? No one wins in Karnataka without caste, cash and plenty of PR, ignoring local offices and letting BL Santhosh, JP Nadda and the RSS make the decision ensured many winnable seats lost due to poor candidate selection with zero political capital.

They need to make changes at the top before Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, MP and Haryana , BJP failed to win all four states last time but could salvage 2 states through post-polls coalition and Congress' infighting. Himachal should have given a good hint how it is not a good idea to control assembly elections from Delhi.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 11 May 2023 22:05

disha · Post by **disha** » 11 May 2023 22:56

^ Ambar'ji et al, I am surprised that there is so much advice for the BJP and its leaders and also lots of opprobrium. There is none for JDS or CONgoons

Is it because the advice to them is worthless? Like teaching Bhagvatam to a donkey?

Since the forum name is "Bharat Rakshak", it might sound strange, that since there is no advice for CONgoons or JDS, it means they do not have any patriotic or nationalistic person in this form that can give feedback to them!

For example, the inebriated DK Shivakumar doing rounds (whether in assembly elections or out of it), will make an excellent admin! He may make the roads straight because as one inebriated gent told me, walking in inebriated state on curved roads means the gent walks straight! So ergo, walking like a snake slithering means the roads are straight. Do not ask me the logic, ask those inebriated gents.

Also getting new faces into the party means that the faces are *new*. You cannot get old & known faces in the party and claim it is a-new.

And there might be good reason to change. The new faces might be the ones eager to do work while the old ones in their constituency would be the ones who will wake up late and do work for show only.

B'gluru is its own cocoon. The 50% vote will definitely not the it-vity, hoity-toity crowd. They will be complaining about the infrastructure mess in India while planning to relocate to Flint, Michigan.

disha · Post by **disha** » 11 May 2023 23:03

Sachin wrote: And each time a state leadership uses Modi, and then loses elections it will impact the credibility of Modi as well.

Credibility of Mr. Mudi is always impacted. He must always rezine.

And if that does not happen, I hope Siddu v/s DKS fights begin at the earliest opportunity. Who gets the CM position would be the most important question.

We can credibly say that Siddu Vs DKS fight will happen. Publicly. In that, the credibility of CONgoons is intact.

disha · Post by **disha** » 11 May 2023 23:21

KL Dubey wrote: Better to give credit for courageous candidate selection and a great campaign, than repeat the same laundry list of known problems every year.

Dubey'ji, if we start giving credit, then how can we do Rona-Dhona? No, we will do Rona-Dhona!

---

I think Modi and Amit Shah took a very bold step in K'tka and stepped in to make sure that the new candidates have their support.

K'tka BJP is being rebuilt from the ground up and if not 2023, when 2028 comes it will be a formidable force. The trajectory of BJP is only one way and that is up. JDS is flaming out and so will CONgoons. They are being reduced to local satrapies.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 12 May 2023 01:00

Sachin wrote:
ritesh wrote: Till when Modi supposed to bail them out?
I get a feeling that Modi wave is also reaching its expiry date. It was obvious from the number of rallies and route marches with Modi & Shah did in KA. It was as if they were camping in the state and running from one place to another. The country's Home Minister doing election rallies when L&O situation was bad in Manipur was not good optics. It kind of gave a feeling that the local KA BJP leadership cannot do the heavy lifting this time around. And each time a state leadership uses Modi, and then loses elections it will impact the credibility of Modi as well.

When has the Modi wave really worked in State elections outside of Gujarat and UP? Even in 2018 it failed all over the Hindi heartland because of people's dissatisfaction with local BJP leadership (V Raje) or anti-incumbency (MP and CG). It failed in Bihar in 2015, WB in 2021, twice in Delhi and most recently in HP. People have repeatedly shown they will vote differently in State and Central elections and that the Modi magic does not translate to the State unless the local leadership is strong and credible.

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 12 May 2023 01:14

Dishaji
Advice can be given to someone who is open minded
The analogy I use is akin to Evolved and Revealed religions
The Durbari/Family owned parties belong to the latter category where you cannot question what is revealed
We all want BJP to continue for another decade but for that to happen we need robust local satraps who can step up when time comes or the party breaks up(yes I am sticking my neck out here)

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 12 May 2023 01:15

Dishaji
Advice can be given to someone who is open minded
The analogy I use is akin to Evolved and Revealed religions
The Durbari/Family owned parties belong to the latter category where you cannot question what is revealed
We all want BJP to continue for another decade but for that to happen we need robust local satraps who can step up when time comes or the party breaks up(yes I am sticking my neck out here)

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 12 May 2023 01:20

Also we need plans for demolishing the durbaris and family party
We need a change of the playing field

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 12 May 2023 01:25

We don’t want to end with one party rule for another 30 years like Congress time

SRajesh · Post by **SRajesh** » 12 May 2023 01:51

As Someone once said BJP= Congress +Cow
We don’t want that do we

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 12 May 2023 02:11

There seems to be a wave of sorts

Anusha Ravi Sood@anusharavi10
Karnataka has created a new record for itself. Final voter turnout for #KarnatakaElection2023 stands at 73.19% .

This number does not include postal ballots & home voting numbers.

This is the highest voter turnout ever in the State.
#ElectionsWithSouthFirst

Anusha Ravi Sood@anusharavi10·9h

This is an official press release from @ceo_karnataka.

Here's how districts have fared in voter turnout for #KarnatakaElection2023.

Women voters at 72.70%. This vote is super important. Why? Coming up in a small analysis piece shortly.

Male voter turnout at 73.68%

https://youtu.be/Tva93NuS6AM

Karnataka assembly elections 2023: Beyond the Exit Polls, what voter trends suggest

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 12 May 2023 02:31

Now PAPPU's team, Surejwala all talking about EVM based on Exit Polls
Exit Polls probably trap to bring EVM logic into SC.

Guru Samy @WellSaidGuru

Karnataka polls will be a great case study on how karyakartas made a turnaround in the last two hours by systematically pulling out dormant voters from their homes and getting them to vote

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 12 May 2023 02:40

disha wrote:^ Ambar'ji et al, I am surprised that there is so much advice for the BJP and its leaders and also lots of opprobrium. There is none for JDS or CONgoons Is it because the advice to them is worthless? Like teaching Bhagvatam to a donkey?

Since the forum name is "Bharat Rakshak", it might sound strange, that since there is no advice for CONgoons or JDS, it means they do not have any patriotic or nationalistic person in this form that can give feedback to them!

For example, the inebriated DK Shivakumar doing rounds (whether in assembly elections or out of it), will make an excellent admin! He may make the roads straight because as one inebriated gent told me, walking in inebriated state on curved roads means the gent walks straight! So ergo, walking like a snake slithering means the roads are straight. Do not ask me the logic, ask those inebriated gents.

Also getting new faces into the party means that the faces are *new*. You cannot get old & known faces in the party and claim it is a-new.

And there might be good reason to change. The new faces might be the ones eager to do work while the old ones in their constituency would be the ones who will wake up late and do work for show only.

B'gluru is its own cocoon. The 50% vote will definitely not the it-vity, hoity-toity crowd. They will be complaining about the infrastructure mess in India while planning to relocate to Flint, Michigan.

What advice will one give to Congress which has distilled itself into two cohorts - break India by any means possible and court jesters who serve to entertain the Gandhis and fill their coffers. I am sure there are millions of patriots who support Congress for various reasons but none of them have the power to change the core functioning of the party but more importantly they lack the long term threat perception that keeping Congress in power means the end of dharmic India in few decades and a continuous erosion of its borders and its influence.

JDS is just a regional party run by one family on a single platform of caste. I know dozens of loyal, multi-generational JDS supporters who solely vote because they think it is a matter of caste pride and whatever small contracts and freebies that are thrown towards some of the loyalists. They ask for no advice and take no advice because as long as their first family remains in politics, they are guaranteed to win around 25 seats every assembly election even if they don't campaign, they are no different than countless other family run parties in India.

As for the "brave decision" of BJP introducing new faces and hoping that they will usher in a new era for the party, that's not how politics in India works irrespective of the party. You bring in faces that have a good chance of winning on their own merit, once someone loses an election, especially a new comer, the chances of them again getting the ticket is next to none, so what is the point of sidelining old timers or winnable candidates ? Mahesh Tenginkai to take on Jagadish Shettar in Hubli ? Sidelining Halady Srinivas Shetty, forcing him to retire and naming a completely unknown Kiran Kumar Kodagi ? Sidelining Anil Kumar Puthila in Puttur when the region was already boiling after the murder of Praveen Nettaru ? Blame RSS and BL Santhosh for calling the shots without understanding the caste or local voter sentiments.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 12 May 2023 06:18

disha wrote:^ Ambar'ji et al, I am surprised that there is so much advice for the BJP and its leaders and also lots of opprobrium. There is none for JDS or CONgoons Is it because the advice to them is worthless? Like teaching Bhagvatam to a donkey?

Why step into the puddle, unless you want to get wetted.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 12 May 2023 06:22

nachiket wrote:When has the Modi wave really worked in State elections outside of Gujarat and UP?

Worked almost every time. Modi's presence and campaign brings new energy to the party workers. It converts total losses to at least a closer fight and increases seat count. It converts close fights into wins. This is commented upon by most of the competent analysts.

If people want to give it a "wave" label and then argue about whether there is a "wave" or not, they can feel free.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 12 May 2023 07:33

When BJP has been able to neutralize cast on its own in the UP elections. Is it possible that they have understood the cast dynamics of Karnataka as well and found a way to neutralize it as a factor in voting?

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 12 May 2023 07:55

KL Dubey wrote:
nachiket wrote:When has the Modi wave really worked in State elections outside of Gujarat and UP?
Worked almost every time. Modi's presence and campaign brings new energy to the party workers. It converts total losses to at least a closer fight and increases seat count. It converts close fights into wins. This is commented upon by most of the competent analysts.

If people want to give it a "wave" label and then argue about whether there is a "wave" or not, they can feel free.

I'm not denying that BJP gets a chunk of votes just because of Modi's popularity. That always happens. I'm just saying there are a lot of examples where it wasn't enough to get past local issues. I mentioned several in the earlier post and still left out some like Haryana 2019 when BJP lost the majority and needed a hasty post-poll alliance to form the government. And all these states aside from WB have been overwhelmingly behind Modi during 2014 and 19 General elections. My point is that State elections cannot be won without strong and credible local leadership, party organization or an existing BJP government which is working decently well and is at least somewhat popular. Modi's popularity alone will not usually help BJP win if those conditions do not exist.

Srutayus · Post by **Srutayus** » 12 May 2023 09:09

Now PAPPU's team, Surejwala all talking about EVM based on Exit Polls
Exit Polls probably trap to bring EVM logic into SC.

If Exit Polls are that accurate why have elections. Spare the expense. The state of the opposition’s intellect in India

But of course what they really want is to use goons to stuff ballots as in the pre-EVM days and expect the majority to stay silent.

williams · Post by **williams** » 12 May 2023 11:41

What is confusing to me is that Congress is gaining 20-30 seats if the exit polls are to be believed. I am not sure if the anti-incumbency factor is so bad. If it is true, then BJP needs to pull up its socks to take stock. Probably people are looking for something different in the South in terms of the governance model. However, voting percentage-wise we still do not have to worry about national elections.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 12 May 2023 12:04

williams wrote:What is confusing to me is that Congress is gaining 20-30 seats if the exit polls are to be believed. I am not sure if the anti-incumbency factor is so bad. If it is true, then BJP needs to pull up its socks to take stock. Probably people are looking for something different in the South in terms of the governance model. However, voting percentage-wise we still do not have to worry about national elections.

Patience williams saar,

by this time tomorrow, all will be revealed onlee

in KAR, it is the age related demographic, roughly between 18 - 39, that is reacting to the congi misinformation and BIF psyops that is very subtly being pushed by visual, social, and print media in a targeted fashion

unfortunately, they also form a very considerable chunk of the voting population

Increasingly, the boundaries between rural and urban voters are rapidly shrinking, given the demographics cited above, and their very easy access to the composite media ecosystem and their chosen methodology of consumption.

srin · Post by **srin** » 12 May 2023 12:48

There is no difference between BJP, INC, JDS or NOTA in BLR. There is no evidence that Govt still exists. The incumbent BJP MLA didn't deign to even show face in past 5 years. Half the city is dug up, the other half is potholed with open sites filled with garbage. Go for a walk in the morning and you can smell either rotting garbage or burning garbage. RTOs and SROs are corrupt cess pits. Nothing has changed in past 20 years. This is a double-engine sarkar with one of the engines in thrust-reverse mode.

If you are in the "cast-your-vote" (not "vote-your-caste) category, who do you vote ? Which lunatic should run the asylum ? I was seriously tempted to vote for NOTA this time.

If BJP even crosses 100, it'll be only because of NaMo campaign in the past 10 days.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 12 May 2023 16:48

RajeevK wrote:
Lisa wrote: Did India even give these medals out? If not, then where whapsi?
Probably they would have won in Commonwealth games.
But there is no Wrestling in 2026 Commonwealth games.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 12 May 2023 18:34

Axis guy raised BJP to 85 now

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 12 May 2023 19:29

BJP will lose onlee

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 13 May 2023 08:36

any news on overall trends?

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 13 May 2023 08:37

Tight in the early / postal ballot votes.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 13 May 2023 08:52

BJP 86
CONG 98
JDS 17
OTH 04
205/224

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 13 May 2023 08:59

From what I read in a vernacular news paper - The initial leads would be based on postal ballots. Then leads would be from major cities & towns. Leads from rural Karnataka would come in later.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 13 May 2023 09:10

BJP will lose only.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 13 May 2023 09:16

BJP 84
CONG 113
JDS 22
OTH 03

very disappointing

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 13 May 2023 09:24

^^ I think game is up for BJP. DK Shivakumar's assessment seems to be more right.

S_Madhukar · Post by **S_Madhukar** » 13 May 2023 09:37

It’s better for BJP to lose in KAR so that they can clean up the state machine there… sounds like too many old uncles and grandpas running the show there who won’t change.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 13 May 2023 09:50

I think this is a loss, but it happens in a democracy.