RaviB wrote:Since the French will scale down their Rafale orders, this would free up some capacity. Does this create the chance for a G-to-G deal for more Rafale which can be received earlier than previously thought based on their order book?
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With the IAF insisting on the MRFA contract, the only workable solution for the Indian Govt is to open an assembly line for the Rafale in India, if the Rafale is chosen as the MRFA. This will be expensive...but in the long run it is the most cost effective solution, when compared to all the other MRFA contenders. See below;
1. The IAF does not need 114 Rafales, they will require only 90 airframes. The 114 number will apply only if another type is chosen, due to a different maintenance schedule. This was stated by Air Marshal Raghunath Nambiar (retd) in an interview to Shiv Aroor. Add the 26 Rafale M (of the Indian Navy...assuming the M variant has won the MRCBF contest) order to the assembly line and you get 116 aircraft in total. Dassault requires a minimum of 100 airframes to transfer the assembly line and this order will check off that box.
2. An assembly line in India will serve not just the IAF, but could potentially serve existing customers awaiting delivery (i.e. Indonesia and UAE). This will greatly help Dassault, as it will ease the pressure off the line at Merignac, France. The line could also serve as a MROU facility for all the Rafale customers in the region (Qatar, UAE, Indonesia and India).
3. With the money already invested in the 36 aircraft Rafale deal, it is pointless to invest even more funds in another fourth generation aircraft. Other than burning money, purchasing any other phoren fourth generation aircraft is meaningless. More of the same must be the mantra, both for local and phoren aircraft. So more Rafale, more Tejas, etc. 90 Rafales + 36 already in service = 126 aircraft. This is the number of MMRCA 1.0 and thus the Air Marshal's numbers are spot on. Seven squadrons (126 airframes) of Mirage 2000s is what Air HQ originally wanted in 2001.
4. Any Rafale line in India will take time to start deliveries and likely the first 18 will come directly from France in fly away condition. With numbers rapidly depleting (i.e. one MiG-21 Bison squadron will retire each year till 2025), additional Tejas Mk1As will have to be ordered. But Air HQ is waiting for the MRFA contract to conclude, because diverting funds for anything else will starve the MRFA contract of funds. But Heaven only knows when the MRFA contest will be over. I am hoping NaMo closes the door on this 2+ decade saga as soon as possible, with a G2G deal that will benefit all parties (France, India and the IAF/IN). Once MRFA is concluded, then the IAF's focus can shift towards additional Mk1As, the Mk2, AMCA, ORCA (?), etc.
5. With FCAS (France's sixth generation aircraft program) severely delayed, the only fallback option is to keep the Rafale up-to-date. With an estimated IOC entry date in the 2050s, the Rafale will have to be regularly upgraded to stay relevant till FCAS arrives. That is already happening with the now-flight testing Rafale F4 variant and with confirmed international orders from UAE and Indonesia for the F4 variant. F4.1 is what is being tested now and F4.2 will follow in 2027. Dassault is already on the drawing board for the F5 variant and there are talks of F6 as well. The Rafale upgrades - borne out of sheer necessity - have a bright future.
6. Fourth generation aircraft will continue to stay relevant, as fifth and sixth generation programs are not cheap to purchase, operate or maintain. Even the USAF is upgrading old fourth generation airframes (F-16 fleet to Block 70 standard) and acquiring new fourth generation airframes (F-15EX). In future conflicts they will play a vital role and will be escorted by the F-22, F-35 and NGAD into battle. Even the PLAAF will adopt the same strategy, with the J-20 being the spearhead and supported by J-10s, J-11s, J-16s, Su-30MKKs, etc. In the IAF, Rafale will be that spearhead. It will hold that mantle till AMCA arrives.