Deterrence

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hgupta
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Re: Deterrence

Post by hgupta »

Cyrano wrote: 02 Oct 2023 12:24 Amber G,
While accusing others of bias, you don't seem to read posts carefully.

I wrote IF true, and thats a big IF. Instead of debunking the fellow who wrote that article, you go off about ginger counters etc.

The fellow says a fusion type mini nuke. Before you start lecturing, we all know what it takes to trigger one. How much radioactivity would that leave behind? No part of the Swedish agencies reports were made public. SO we HAVE to take what Swedish agencies are reporting using their seismic sensors and $25 or $100 Geiger counters, and take their word as gospel. Of course, Russia whose pipelines were destroyed was excluded from the investigation.

It doesn't matter HOW the NS was destroyed beyond a point. WHO dun it is what matters now. The MSM that wrote scores of pages on Bucha and kidnapped children was silent on such a huge ecological and energy security disaster, begs the question WHY ?

I'd love to see how these NATO countries and their MSMs will react if India did another round of N tests, to prove its mini-nuke designs. Hope we'll have you batting for Bharat even then.
He did nothing of the sort. You seem to be merrily chasing theories into a rabbit hole based on purely conjecture without any substantive or conclusive proof and he is calling you out for it.

There were no mini-nukes involved in that explosion. Just a very powerful bomb that would cut through the pipes that have been reinforced against the pressure of the sea.
Cyrano
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Re: Deterrence

Post by Cyrano »

I admit I wasn't there so I could be wrong :P
SSridhar
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Re: Deterrence

Post by SSridhar »

Discussion about why the US must move away from entirely counterforce to a mix of counterforce plus countervalue, in order to take the combined might of China and Russia, without increasing its nuclear arsenal.

The U.S. Nuclear Arsenal Can Deter Both China and Russia - Glaser, Acton & Fetter - Foreign Affairs
ramana
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Re: Deterrence

Post by ramana »

Shows the decline of super power!
drnayar
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Re: Deterrence

Post by drnayar »

SSridhar wrote: 06 Oct 2023 11:27 Discussion about why the US must move away from entirely counterforce to a mix of counterforce plus countervalue, in order to take the combined might of China and Russia, without increasing its nuclear arsenal.

The U.S. Nuclear Arsenal Can Deter Both China and Russia - Glaser, Acton & Fetter - Foreign Affairs
:mrgreen: ..read..the US does not want to get into an arms race with China .. knowing it cant win.. karma coming a full circle.. it was not so long ago the US bankrupted the Soviet Union using a similar tactic
Haridas
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Re: Deterrence

Post by Haridas »

ramana wrote: 07 Apr 2017 00:56 I think a revisit of the NFU part of the Indian MND is appropriate at this uncertain times.
Current global situtation is more than uncertain, it is volatile time.

Bharat must publically share it revised doctrin (in summary).
drnayar
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Re: Deterrence

Post by drnayar »

Haridas wrote: 29 Dec 2023 23:50
ramana wrote: 07 Apr 2017 00:56 I think a revisit of the NFU part of the Indian MND is appropriate at this uncertain times.
Current global situation is more than uncertain, it is volatile time.

Bharat must publicly share it revised doctrine (in summary).
Indeed, deterring China requires more than ambiguity in its arsenal as well as a robust response in its doctrine
Amber G.
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Re: Deterrence

Post by Amber G. »

I posted about about Dr. Swaminathan in this thread a few months ago.

Noting that:
One anecdote: After the nuclear tests of 1998, He said something very telling to in an Indian Science conference "
You people in Defence, Atomic Energy and Space think of these as "strategic". But without food security, we couldn't have done the nuclear tests."
He was right.
I am glad, that it was announced that Dr. Swaminathan is now honored with Bharat-Ratna!
Amber G.
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Re: Deterrence

Post by Amber G. »

This may be of interest:

I happened to visit Nevada National Security Site, a place steeped in history with over 100 atmospheric nuclear tests and 1000s of underground tests.. Apart from the first Atom bomb tested in New Mexico's Trinity site (which i visited in the past) *all* atomic tests inside USA were tested here. (Exception were some large Thermo nuclear bombs were tested in South Pacific).

This was really memorable!

Sedan Crater (apart several such craters), where the effects of a 140 Kiloton nuclear device (in 1962) were evident - large crater 1300 by 320 ft -- It was a sobering experience, to say the least.

The Knob Hill, where Walter Cronkite famously reported the first live mushroom cloud after an explosion. Standing in that historic spot, we couldn't help but feel the weight of history bearing down on us... People then watched the mushroom cloud, shock waves some 50-100 miles away -- even is Las Vegas - where crowed gathered to watch on rooftops.. (and felt the quake etc).

There were trenches where US troops dug-in just few Km from point zero,... miles away there were benches and view points - (many famous/historic photographs of leaders watching the event )... and houses built with different constructions, and different kind of basements, (with mannequins insides) to study the effect...(VERY sobering to see the results)

One site - where last nuclear test was all ready - but due to treaty with then Soviet Union was scrubbed at the last moment --they left almost everything (except the bomb) .. tunnel (1000 feet deep).. testing equipments/ cables etc.. as it was..

My take on one thing - in 1950's/60's they have to do that much testing mostly for learning .. each test gave new data ...now there is not the need as the science and engineering is much understandable...

One thought - during those 20-30 years -- US performed one nuclear test every week...

(No cameras, iphones, electonics, or Geiger Counter were allowed ..I decided to test the radiation level on my shoes afterward -- it was high but well within the safe limits lower than sands of Kerala..:)

For details one can do search for Sedan Crater etc.. here is the site - some info is openly available:
https://www.energy.gov/em/nevada-nation ... sites-nnss
ShauryaT
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Re: Deterrence

Post by ShauryaT »

A long overdue forward step has been taken.

FINALLY, Divyastra, 19 years late. Next up — Thermonuclear testing - Bharat Karnad
The MIRV tech has been collecting dust at the Advanced Systems Laboratory (ASL), Hyderabad, for the last 19 years. It was a project lovingly shepherded to near completion by RN Agarwal, the then Director, ASL. He wanted to complete it by the time he retired in 2004. But the project missed the deadline by a year. In part because Dr Agarwal’s approaches since 2002 to the first BJP government of Atal Bihari Vajpayee for approval of a test launch of a MIRVed Agni did not elicit the response he had hoped for. The Vajpayee PMO, with Brajesh Mishra, the National Security Adviser-cum-Principal Private Secretary to the PM, heading it, repeatedly said NO! But Agarwal’s spirited campaign for the Indian MIRV project cost him a promotion. He was passed over for the post of DRDO chief and Secretary to the Govt of India (GOI), because Mishra feared Agarwal would use the DRDO pulpit to push MIRV, which Mishra did not want. The head of the Arjun Main Battle Tank Project, Dr M Natarajan, was appointed to lead DRDO instead.

The Manmohan Singh regime wouldn’t OK the MIRV test, and Narendra Modi didn’t either until sometime in late 2022 when he green-flagged the Divyastra test launch.
ramana
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Re: Deterrence

Post by ramana »

History of China's quest for Hydrogen bomb.
Achieved in 2.5 years after fission bomb.

https://thebulletin.org/2024/04/the-sho ... ogen-bomb/
dinesh_kimar
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Re: Deterrence

Post by dinesh_kimar »

1. The Book "Weapons of Peace" Is avbl on libgen, i believe.

2. 1998 test, R. Chidambaram said there were 3 bombs in 11th May- an improved 1974 type fission bomb ( air launched from Mirage 2000 with special pylons and toss bombing maneuver, at about 12 Kt, its 20℅ improved yield from 1974 version) , a pure hydrogen bomb whose trigger is a fusion boosted fission (the trigger alone is approx. 4 fold improvement of 1974 device, say 40 kt, the hydrogen bomb apparently had 3 settings of 5kt, 50kt and 250 kt, and was set at 50kt for the test- this yield was achieved during test and they are satisfied. The delivery platform is adapted to Agni -2 missile tested later in 1999 for 2000km), and low yield sub kiloton device for computer simulation purpose as a database.

3. 13th May - 2 more sub kiloton tests done for simulation database, incl. 1 with reactor grade plutonium. 6th low yield device not tested as not required, frivolous. Each device had seperate shaft, 6 in total- Whitehouse, Tajmahal, Khumbkaran, Navtal 1,2 and 3.

4. Hydrogen bomb mastered only after 1996 PVNR test aborted, if tested earlier in1996, only 40 kt boosted fission, 12 kt air launch and sub kiloton would have been offered for test, not H bomb.

5. Chidambaram wanted h bomb test with boosted fission trigger, maybe due to highest yield configuration avbl with india at that time. For some reason, not concerned with multiple tests for reliability, maybe series of experiments in BARC has already validated all technologies/ sub components involved and is a soilid back up, so confidence high?
dinesh_kimar
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Re: Deterrence

Post by dinesh_kimar »

Added later:

6. H-bomb tested configuration with boosted fission trigger is the payload of Agni missile.

7. Until 1999, India apparently had no nuclear delivery means other than the Mirage 2000. The Prithvi never had a nuclear payload, DRDO was struggling to reduce CEP and develop conventional warheads, armed forces were arm twisted to buy Prithvi 1/2 versions without development trials, IAF and IA had their usual spat on who controlled ranges beyond 150 km.

8. From those early days 26 years ago, India has come a long way with variety of delivery platforms offered as a triad- 6 types of Agni incl. MIRV ICBM, cruise missile , at least 2 types of slbm, and various theatre ballistic missile like Prithvi, Pralay, Pragati, Pranash, etc.
Platforms may be Mirage 2000/ Su-30 mki/ Rafale/ Drones/ SLBM from Arihant class, and truck based TEL / Railway coach TEL. Stand alone silos apparently not required?

Overall, the highest range is 8000 km with Agni 5, Highest yield weapon is 250 kt thermonuclear. So maybe there exists a credible minimum deterrence...

Vajpayee himself had stated in Parliament, on the advice of BARC/ AEC that devices upto 200 kt can be produced. Anil Kakodkar and Chidambaram have asserted the same to the media. Kakodkar has told Shekar Gupta in a Walk the Talk episode that some devices with 200 kt yield are prepared and available.

The 250 kt yield figure / 3 dial-a -yield configuration was in one of Journal papers i came across recently, will try to locate it again , from one of the govt. Think tanks.
vsunder
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Re: Deterrence

Post by vsunder »

^^^ @dinesh.kumar why are you regurgitating useless crap. You are a newbie so learn:

Here

http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/archives/ ... amana.html


http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/archives/ ... crater.pdf

Second article on Crater Phenomenon appeared in the BRM here(it was apparently sent to BARC for peer review by BRM editors and created a sensation there as I was told)

http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/archives/ ... index.html

Eventually SK Sikka who designed the TN device got in touch with me and I was asked to speak at the National Institute for Advanced Study(NIAS) in Bangalore, Raja Ramanna's outfit adjoining the IISc campus. I politely refused. Particularly Sikka was very impressed as to how I dealt with Sublette's analysis and destroyed it in the crater article.

Articles above have been referenced by many think tanks and even have appeared in books. One such book was a collection of articles by the Brookings Institution. Here is one


https://nuclearweaponarchive.org/India/IndiaRef.html
vsunder
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Re: Deterrence

Post by vsunder »

For another example: Since some of you know there is something called Libgen as the poster^^^ has given this gyaan about Libgen, go and look at this Libgen and download the book

The India-China Relationship---Rivalry and Engagement(Oxford University Press), which is a collection of articles with Francine R. Frankel and Harry Harding editors.


The article by George Perkovich in this book titled The Nuclear and Security Balance, pp 178-218 quotes the article in BRM linked above joint with Ramana and Thundyil ---reference [36] on page 215 in the book.

The book is nowadays published by Columbia University Press under a slightly different title:

https://www.amazon.com/India-China-Rela ... 0231132379
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