BenG wrote: ↑01 Nov 2023 12:49
I'm hopeful about Tejas mk1a. But definitely not by March 2024. I'll glad if I'm proven wrong. However I know reality and keep my expectations in check.
Your concerns are best addressed by this sentence in your post.
Nothing comes on time in military projects. And in India, our bureaucracy and our politics always ensures that happens. The Tejas program is running a similar path. The AMCA and TEDBF programs will not be any different either. Even the MMRCA/MRFA program is now running into 2+ decades. Thus if the expectation is that projects will arrive on a timely manner, with timelines set by the local OEM, you will always be disappointed. The unfortunate reality - due to these bureaucratic delays - is that many will die (in crashes operating aging platforms) and the desired capability will likely not be available when needed. And delays in India is not measured in years, but by decades. Nothing will come on time - not Tejas Mk2, not AMCA, not TEDBF or anything else.
But all is not doom and gloom either. There is a measurable, proven change towards self reliance and production improvements. That is primarily due to the on-going global conflicts, which has forced our services to look at platforms / capabilities within the country. There is no other choice now. Forget the trusted source (Russia) for our services, which existed for decades...even the Western nations will find it challenging to meet our Govt's stringent Make in India requirements. I never expected an order beyond the 83 Tejas Mk1A contract, but now that has become certain. And that is coming primarily out of sheer necessity. The MRFA is nowhere on the horizon. The strength (and more importantly the capability) is dangerously low in the IAF and ordering additional Mk1As - despite the delays - will still come much quicker than the MRFA.
The only way to circumvent the bureaucratic delays is to suspend democracy in India. But who is game for that scenario? When Xi Winnie Pooh Bear wants 750 J-10s and 500 J-20s for the PLAAF, there is no one to question him. There are no public defence acquisition councils that exist, like in India. There is no opposition to question this purchase or whether it is value for money. There is no running to Supreme Court, at the slightest hint of impropriety. Pooh Bear is the all seeing eye of Sauron i.e. Govt, Bureaucracy, Opposition, Supreme Court, Defence Councils, etc. He is all of that rolled into one entity ---> The Supreme Leader of the People's Republic of China.
Because in the absence of communism and autocracy, you will have delays. And that is something we have to live with. One cannot compare the political realities of India with that of China. No matter how one slices it, this reality will always exist in India. Once we realize that reality, then decision making becomes much easier. After 10 years of BJP rule, there has been measurable progress...but when you look at the Mount Everest of Inertia that still exists in India, we still have a long way to go. But lets not get our undies in a twist, because MK1A may not come on time. If it does not, so be it.