Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

[Cyrano]

TEPA provides an opportunity to integrate into EU markets. Over 40% of Switzerland’s global services exports are to the EU. Indian companies can look to Switzerland as a base for extending its market reach to EU.

IMO this is the crux. Perhaps we are hoping to counter some EU regulations and upcoming carbon tax

[Cyrano]

Bharat must ensure that any deal with the sinking west must be made only with the technological advancement of it's own industry as the prime motivation.

We cannot sacrifice this objective at the altar of short term economic gains, GDP growth etc which will inevitably follow once we become technologically strong and start leading.

[A_Gupta]

All the major states but Bihar show healthy year over year increases in GST collection for February.
Bihar shows a 1% drop.
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.asp ... 0in%202023.

Manipur, Mizoram and Jharkhand also.

Any thoughts?

[Cyrano]

[Aditya_V]

All the major states but Bihar show healthy year over year increases in GST collection for February.
Bihar shows a 1% drop.
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.asp ... 0in%202023.

Manipur, Mizoram and Jharkhand also.

Any thoughts?

No Manufacturing, not much service sector, how many Companies are headquartered in Patna- very few.

[bala]

Finance minister, Nirmala Uvacha - aiming for 7 T GDP within 2030

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYdjQTjlnH8

She does not mention judicial or babucracy reforms. Both of them drag the GDP growth by at least 2 to 3 %. These are a must in 3rd term of Modi ji.

[A_Gupta]

https://prsindia.org/budgets/states/bih ... is-2024-25

The Finance Minister of Bihar, Mr Samrat Chaudhary, presented the Budget for the state for the financial year 2024-25 on February 13, 2024.

Budget Highlights

The Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) of Bihar for 2024-25 (at current prices) is projected to be Rs 9.76 lakh crore, amounting to growth of 13.5% over the previous year.

Expenditure (excluding debt repayment) in 2024-25 is estimated to be Rs 2,56,333 crore, a decrease of 12% over the revised estimates of 2023-24. In addition, debt of Rs 22,393 crore will be repaid by the state. In 2023-24, expenditure (excluding debt repayment) is estimated to be 22% higher than the budget estimate.

Receipts (excluding borrowings) for 2024-25 are estimated to be Rs 2,27,238 crore, an increase of 5.7% over the revised estimates of 2023-24. In 2023-24, receipts (excluding borrowings) are estimated to be 1% higher than the budget estimates.

Revenue surplus in 2024-25 is estimated to be Rs 1,121 crore (0.1% of GSDP). As per the revised estimates, the state is expected to observe a revenue deficit of Rs 35,530 crore in 2023-24 (4.1% of GSDP). In 2023-24, revenue surplus of Rs 4,479 crore was estimated at the budget stage (0.5% of GSDP).

Fiscal deficit for 2024-25 is targeted at 3% of GSDP (Rs 29,095 crore). In 2023-24, as per the revised estimates, fiscal deficit is expected to be 8.9% of GSDP, significantly higher than budgeted (3% of GSDP).

For the previous financial period, Bihar grew at 10% or so.

So lack of growth in GST suggests a very primary production based economy, assuming that the growth figures are correct.

[A_Gupta]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/busine ... ent-puzzle

India’s private investment puzzle
According to the government data, private investment at both the current and constant prices was 27% of the gross domestic product (GDP).

NEW DELHI: Despite the Government’s thrust on capex, the private sector is not very enthusiastic about capacity expansion in the country. Many factors, particularly global uncertainties, are the main reasons behind the lackluster growth in private investment.

IMO and I am not an economist: India should keep a balance between consumption-led growth and investment-led growth, and not be like China.

[Deans]

Not sure if this is the right forum:
I have a blog where I post on Indian national security, geopolitics and Indian startups. It is for the latter (startups) that I am posting here.
I post free original data based content on the nature of Indian startups, that is not covered in the MSM and might be useful to members here.
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/

Those on other forums of BRF have appreciated my posts on Indian national security and the ongoing conflicts. I would be happy to have more readers and feedback on my startup articles ( I've been a CEO, then owner and now mentor select startups, pro-bono).
The blog is free with no advertising, so I hope I am not violating forum rules for self promotion.

[williams]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/busine ... ent-puzzle

India’s private investment puzzle
According to the government data, private investment at both the current and constant prices was 27% of the gross domestic product (GDP).

NEW DELHI: Despite the Government’s thrust on capex, the private sector is not very enthusiastic about capacity expansion in the country. Many factors, particularly global uncertainties, are the main reasons behind the lackluster growth in private investment.

IMO and I am not an economist: India should keep a balance between consumption-led growth and investment-led growth, and not be like China.

For india, it is still important to see a bit of growth (probably another 15-6%) on the investment component of the GDP. That will play a direct role in lowering the burden of imports in our GDP and also spurs more innovation health. Our investments peaked in 2007 and those NPAs had a huge effect on it. To be honest we have not fully recovered from it and then Covid came. We are definitely picking the phase now and hopefully we'll get to a healthy trend soon.

[JTull]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/busine ... ent-puzzle

India’s private investment puzzle
According to the government data, private investment at both the current and constant prices was 27% of the gross domestic product (GDP).

NEW DELHI: Despite the Government’s thrust on capex, the private sector is not very enthusiastic about capacity expansion in the country. Many factors, particularly global uncertainties, are the main reasons behind the lackluster growth in private investment.

IMO and I am not an economist: India should keep a balance between consumption-led growth and investment-led growth, and not be like China.

Investment led growth has impact on both demand and supply. Consumption led growth leads to inflation and import growth.

Consumption in the present is not as much a priority but laying a foundation for sustainable growth requires some structural reforms. We want to uplift average income of an Indian, feed their aspirations with skills development. Supply chain rewiring is a tremendous opportunity for the same.

You also have to factor in long gestation for some of the investments to give returns. PLI scheme is public investment to build private sector capacity. Part of it for supply chain resiliency and part to fulfil our future requirements. e.g., Indian semi-conductor demand is going to grow 10X in next 9 years. No sane Indian would be suggesting that we fulfil this demand by importing.

[bala]

The Indian economy requires a different way of thinking, not just about manufacturing items which are mostly designed elsewhere and cater to foreign markets but a rethink of almost everything. The supply chain components area is dominated by niche players who eat up most of the profits. Take a phone - the chip is controlled by a few companies (apple, google, samsung), the camera by sony, display by LG, Samsung, telecom chip by qualcom. No matter where it is manufactured, these companies have the lion share in profit making. Indian entrepreneurs need to don thinking cap and re-imagine all products, this is where the profits are and taking market share requires nimble, quick thinking and innovative products. Dyson the vacuum cleaning company rethought the vacuum cleaner afresh (what affects suction) and their products quickly caught on (even though more expensive) in the marketplace. India has a chance to rethink pretty much everything. Solutions for Indian market can quickly translate to other nations like Africa for market share. Everyone wants something more appropriate for the task at hand. India also can take the entire import list and for each final year graduating batch of engineers as a project can work on how to make similar things from 1st principle. Once they have the prototype, maybe they form their own company and spring boot themselves. The mantra is: Don't need to be 2nd fiddle to these foreign companies anymore, you own the product and the market share. That is the only way to generate wealth and leap frog over others.

[SaraLax]

The Indian economy requires a different way of thinking, not just about manufacturing items which are mostly designed elsewhere and cater to foreign markets but a rethink of almost everything. .
.
.
India has a chance to rethink pretty much everything. Solutions for Indian market can quickly translate to other nations like Africa for market share. Everyone wants something more appropriate for the task at hand. India also can take the entire import list and for each final year graduating batch of engineers as a project can work on how to make similar things from 1st principle. Once they have the prototype, maybe they form their own company and spring boot themselves. The mantra is: Don't need to be 2nd fiddle to these foreign companies anymore, you own the product and the market share. That is the only way to generate wealth and leap frog over others.

Good Idea !.
Is there any Indian company that provides a good locally produced Virtualization solution for computing ?
How about creating a Proxmox type Virtualization/Container solution for Indian Computing market (x86/Sparc/Arm) & more importantly provide service management for such a solution (to earn additional revenue).

[Cyrano]

Not sure if this is the right forum:
I have a blog where I post on Indian national security, geopolitics and Indian startups. It is for the latter (startups) that I am posting here.
I post free original data based content on the nature of Indian startups, that is not covered in the MSM and might be useful to members here.
https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/

Excellent article Deans ji. Perhaps you should post it in Indian Education system thread as well.

In an interview several months ago, Sanjeev Sanyal was also speaking about the govts intention to leverage Ed tech massively to capitalise on the digital infrastructure we now have in place. Good to see that some of these schemes are already started though a lot remains to be done

Sometimes I think this disaffection for primary and secondary education is also because it will lead to millions of people wanting only to do white collar jobs which are very hard to create. Past govts promised govt jobs with weak economy with low growth and high inflation, low tax collection (some states still do) and ended up unable to pay salaries much less create the promised jobs.

The current govt has rightly resisted this and is trying to create more entrepreneurs with schemes like Mudra loans - which IMO is the right way to go.

[drnayar]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/19/business ... 0][/color]

Five times the size of Paris. Visible from space. The world’s biggest energy plant. Enough electricity to power Switzerland.

[Cyrano]

^^^Page not found!

[Cyrano]

https://twitter.com/DivaJain2/status/17 ... p7khQ&s=19

Another view on edtech

[RajeevK]

^^^Page not found!

here is the correct link
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/19/busi ... e-intl-hnk

[JTull]

I have been waiting on Google Earth to update the location ( 24° 5'39.49"N, 69°20'53.50"E) but last image is from 5/2021.

[vijayk]

[vijayk]

[vijayk]

[vijayk]

[vijayk]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/sm ... 695533.cms

India’s economic activity increased in March, boosted by gains in the manufacturing sector, a flash survey by HSBC Holdings Plc showed.

The manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to a 16-year high of 59.2 from 56.9 in February. That helped to boost the composite index to 61.3 this month. The services purchasing managers’ index eased marginally to 60.3 from 60.6 in February.

[sanman]

David Roche: India Won't Replace China in Global Economy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbyxf_ZF1qc

[drnayar]

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/oil-pri ... 53818.html

[vera_k]

^ What is that part about shipping old cars from the US to India? Did something change or is this another attempt at a pump and dump on people unaware of India's import policies?

[sanjaykumar]

It serves as an adequate check on the credibility of the article, I stopped reading at this point.

[KL Dubey]

Both the David Roche guy and the other the other transcript article are BS. Wasted time.

[vijayk]

https://youtu.be/kzRfM9tTJYs?feature=shared
How India managed an unexpected export turnaround

Very good ... Global Capability centers (GCC), Phones

[vijayk]

[VinodTK]

From: The Time Of India

Q4 growth set to push FY24 GDP up by 8% or more: Sitharaman

MUMBAI: The country's economic growth in the March quarter is likely to be 8% or more, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said. "If this is how inflation management is happening, macroeconomic stability being what it is, you had three-quarters of growth above 8%, and hopefully, the fourth quarter, which ends tomorrow, will also be 8% or over 8%, resulting in 2023-24 having a GDP growth of 8% or over 8%," FM said at an event organised by Mint Saturday.
GDP growth in the Oct-Dec quarter was a scorching 8.4% led by robust manufacturing sector expansion. Data for the March-quarter GDP will be released on May 31.
"Three-quarters of growth over 8% is good news, and I thank the people of India for being very energetic and ensuring that India remains the fastest-growing economy," said Sitharaman.


She said the commentary on consumption was because of a sequential comparison of consumption numbers. "Do you think we would have had 8% growth without consumption?" she asked.
The minister said that the recent spike in income tax notices was because of a new rule driving the tax department to send notices out before they became time-barred and because of digitisation. "Every time through the year, notices are sent so that the assessment does not get time-barred before the six-year limitation sets in on March 31. So, they are rushing a lot of these notices to say, 'Hey, I have asked you a question; reply, and we will take it up further.' It is not harassment; it is because of compliance requirements for the board to ensure that getting information does not get time barred."


Sitharaman said that some old records, which are still in manual form, are now being digitised. "If a notice comes to you saying, 'We do not have this information about you, can you fill it in?', it is more because of the gap in data resulting from the transition from manual to digital," the FM said.

[A_Gupta]

Disputing India's GDP growth numbers:
https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/8- ... od-2921772

--
Whether the above criticism holds any merit or not, if Sanjeev Sanyal accurately reflects the Modi Sarkar policy, then macroeconomic stability is more important to than growth. He has clearly said that India could be growing by another percent or two, but at the cost of macroeconomic stability - it would increase inflation and the foreign trade imbalance; and that is something the government will try not to let happen. Sustained high growth for 25 years needs macroeconomic stability. (In the long run, a consistent 7% growth will beat growth fluctuating between 8% and 5% I think). In the talk I heard from youtube, he advised his audience not to be fixated on growth.

[VinodTK]

X - Posting

India's Manufacturing Hits 16-Year High at 59.1 PMI

New Delhi: With the stellar performance in production as well as new orders since October 2020, India's manufacturing activity continued to expand in March 2024 as the HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index or PMI climbed to a 16-year high of 59.1 in the same month from 56.9 in the month of February this year, reflecting stronger growth of renewed job creation in the country, a private monthly survey showed on Tuesday.

Deccan Chronicle

[drnayar]

[drnayar]

https://www.channel4.com/news/india-cou ... -hong-kong

India could destroy a remote tribe by building new Hong Kong

[sanjaykumar]

Send in the Christians. The tribe will be saved.

[vijayk]

Diva Jain
@DivaJain2

Indian firms will be buying $100 bn of chips a year and 70% of Tata's Assam factory capacity has already been contracted out. N Chandrasekaran has done something that Rajan will never do - put skin in the game.

[drnayar]

India needs dreamers who believe they can not the likes of the traitorous Rajan

We Indians have a dream ..it will resonate through future generations. It is this fight for them that we fight in the next elections

[vijayk]