nachiket wrote: ↑01 Apr 2024 12:27
At this point barring some unforeseen events/complications it seems like 3-4 states will decide the overall outcome of the elections - Bihar, Maharashtra, West Bengal and Karnataka. Everywhere else either the NDA or INDI alliance (or someone else) are in a solid lead with the chance of a statewide close fight unlikely.
Out of these 4 KA is probably of the least concern to the BJP after getting JDS on board. Hopefully the arithmetic and vote-transfer works well there.
...
Andhra Pradesh is an honorable mention in this list though I have very little confidence in Chandrababu Naidu to produce something there and actually deliver a significant number of seats and thereafter actually stay in the NDA for five years to make those seats useful.
Nachiket San, be prepared to be surprised on the positive side. The blitzkreig in TN is exciting and the morass of Delhi in which the Gar$hitties of Germans and US has waded in is promising to create a war of the decade. Remember, several of the dynastic parties are looking at oblivion if they cannot hold on to even a shred of dignity.
This is *not* a battle of alliances and equations. They matter. This is a battle where in W. Bengal, BJP has a good chance to get past 21 seats. Sandeshkali is only the latest. Bengal polity is divided over corruption and it is a matter of time when MaoMatas hold over the rapist, corrupt polity of Bengal will break. Where will the rats run then? In fact, the anti-BJP vote base will be divided between MaoMata, Commies and CONgoons.
Look at the phases in W. Bengal, UP and Bihar:
42 (7 phases) 3 3 4 8 7 8 9
80 (7 phases) 8 8 10 13 14 14 13
40 (7 phases) 4 5 5 5 5 8 8
Each and every constituency going to polls will have a very heavy security presence. This will keep the Gundas in relative check.
In rest of India, CONgoons are facing a complete wipeout. Pick a state and we can bet if they can either win 0 or 2 seats. Even Mah.
Remember Indian voter is a smart voter. They kicked out UPA in 2014. Gave a bigger majority to Modi in 2019 and now the satta bazar is rife on the number of seats BJP/NDA will win. Will it be 333+ or 370+
The game here is to see the wipe out of corrupt BIF parties. The big iff is the last mile voter.