Indian Interests_2

[Pratyush]

Looking at the situation I cannot take a definite stand, if a war is inevitable or the current unstable situation will continue till everyone is exhausted and just goes home.

Because even though everyone is focusing on the proxies being used by Iran. Unkil also has his proxies and they have attacked Iran on a few occasions this year through Pakistan.

That should have an effect of bringing about some amount of caution within the Iranian decision making process to escalate or not. If the Iranians are deterred by the use of proxies, then we can expect this unstable situation to continue. If not then war happens.

In case of war breaking out, l am in agreement with the points raised by A.Deshmukh.

[Manish_P]

..

Impact on India:
-ve:
Disturbed Gulf trade route - highly likely.
Oil prices spike - very likely.
Exodus of NRIs from Gulf - likely. atleast from some states like Kuwait/Iraq that would be on the frontlines.
Destruction of our Chabhar-Armenia investment and trade route - very likely.

+ve:
Flight of Gulf money to safer haven - India - very likely
Increased sale of ammunition back to Israel and other friendly countries - likely.
Busy shipyards - maintaining US ships - likely

The negatives outweigh the positives by a huge margin...

[Atmavik]

^^^ so it begins. Iran has launched a drone swarm attack against Israel. i think this is either a diversion or for the proverbial 'nam ke waste'.

[chetak]

#Katchatheevu redux

In 2012 Manmohan Govt was planning to secretly handover the large land area in Rann of Kutch in Gujrat.

Modi got wind of it & shot a letter to Mauni baba.

The coalition govt on the brink of scam charges developed cold feet denied & called off secret land transfer.

[ramana]

Robert Axelrod'sTheory of Cooperation shows tit for tat brings about cooperation.* Muslims were confident Modiji would keep giving them largesse, and they voted for the Opposition.
Now Opposition is being destroyed and largesse is going to be stopped.

* Random tit-for-tat brings it about faster. Modiji has done it unexpectedly.

[ramana]

ToG, you asked me about Modiji using a random tit-for-tat strategy.

We think it's a three-person game between BJP, Muslims, and Congress.
BJP would give benefits, and Muslims take the benefits and support Congress. Congress would make even more appeasement.
In reality, it's a two-person game since 2014, between BJP and Muslims. Muslim support to Congress was the contention. IOW Congress is not a national player after losing power. It's a recipient of Muslim support against the BJP.

Modiji, for ten years, tried Sama, dhana, and bhed to gain Muslim support. For their part, Muslims figured they could continue their play in this game.

This election, Modiji, has gone on the offensive and is making it clear he will repay in kind. This is an unexpected move for Muslims in India, Pakistan, and US supporters.


At the same time, the BJP is working hard to decimate Congress in Lok Sabha, so it's not worthy of support.
Ab tera khya hoga Kaalia?
This is my reading.