Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[YashG]

Fall of Ochertyne and Novobakhmutivka is showing first signs of Ukraine running out of men. Till many many months there was the talk of ukraine falling short of men but the problem had not manifested yet. Ukraine had defended everywhere. But the first signs might be there now.

These settlements fell more because of there were no reserves and less because of low ammunition. So 61Bn will solve the ammo problem atleast for 5-6 months but not the 'men' problem.

This problem will exacerbate a lot in days to come. There are rumors of Russia introducing +10 brigades in theatre.

[srai]

^^^
One example of how much losses Russians are incurring for incremental gains.

Ukrainian troops destroyed over 300 units of equipment near Novomykhailivka

20 April, 2024

…
The battle for the small village, which used to be home to only 1,500 people, began in late fall.

To seize this settlement, Russians concentrated 10 brigades and regiments totaling up to 30,000 soldiers on a narrow section of the front line.

“And every day Russians throw tanks and armored combat vehicles into the attack, sparing no infantry. We have destroyed 314 units of enemy equipment,” the military said.

Novomykhailivka is located about 12 kilometers south of Mariinka, which Russian forces have been trying to capture since 2014.
…

This image shows all the destroyed Russian armor around the Novomykhailivka village.


That village was flattened and eventually overrun by the Russians but it was achieved at a great cost (both equipment and personnel).

[YashG]

^^^
Exactly sometimes I'm amazed at the amount of russian materiel that is destroyed. I just assume someone is doing a bean counter for these. It does seem that Ukraine had a very favorable edge in FPVs in last 5 months.

[srai]

Let’s see how quickly aid ammunition reach the frontlines and what sort of immediate impact it will have.

…
STORING WEAPONS IN EUROPE
According to a U.S. military official, the U.S. would be able to send certain munitions “almost immediately” to Ukraine because storehouses exist in Europe.

Among the weapons that could go very quickly are the 155 mm rounds and other artillery, along with some air defense munitions. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss preparations not yet made public.

A host of sites across Germany, Poland and other European allies also are helping Ukraine maintain and train on systems sent to the front. For example, Germany set up a maintenance hub for Kyiv’s Leopard 2 tank fleet in Poland, near the Ukrainian border.

The nearby maintenance hubs hasten the turnaround time to get needed repairs done on the Western systems.
…

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-weap ... bf47254ece

[srai]

After recent €50 billion in economic aid by EU, there are now plans for a 5-year €100 billion military aid package by NATO (EU only).

…

Meanwhile, US military $60 billion aid package still stuck in US Congress politics.

NATO EU stepping out of US shadow. Over the years, US has become an unreliable partner.

The US $61 billion military aid will get Ukraine through 2024. However, this sort of US aid may be the last one given how difficult it was to get the bill through the divided US congress.

It provides NATO EU around a year to make its pledge of 5-year €100 billion military aid a reality by early 2025.

Then it becomes a matter of who outlasts whom over the next 5-years. Defense budgets increasing. MIC shifting gears. Who ends up with an upper-hand?

[Manish_P]

^ Is the Netherlands 4 Billion Euros aid part of the 50 billion EU aid or an addition?

[srai]

^^^

AFAIK, EU €50 billion is for economic aid/loans spread over 4 years. EU made up of 27 countries.

Then the planned NATO Europe €100 billion will be for military aid/loans spread over 5 years. NATO Europe has 30 member countries.

So far each NATO European nation has been donating their own billions haphazardly. If we add up all the individual countries military donation till now, it will be quite a lot. One can assume that the €100 billion is meant to combine funds from donor NATO European countries into a “basket” and make it more predictable over many years.

With each NATO European members increasing their defense budget to a minimum 2% of their GDP, €100 billion military donations over 5-years easily doable. This is around €3.3 billion (€660 million/year) per country (if divided equally over 30 countries). Obviously G7 nations like Germany, France, Italy and UK will contribute more based on relative GDP percentage.

Also, one thing to remember is that 70-90% of “aid” money remains within their own home country. So really each of the countries are spending on their own MIC, contractors and other beneficiaries. For example, a tank donated is manufactured/refurbished in the donor country or Union along with all the auxiliary support equipment and ammunition.

[Manish_P]

..
With each NATO European members increasing their defense budget to a minimum 2% of their GDP, €100 billion military donations over 5-years easily doable...

Understood

Also, one thing to remember is that 70-90% of “aid” money remains within their own home country. So really each of the countries are spending on their own MIC, contractors and other beneficiaries. For example, a tank donated is manufactured/refurbished in the donor country or Union along with all the auxiliary support equipment and ammunition.

Quite so. However the money remains within the country only temporarily as the finished product is still given out. If/when the home country needs the money (for something else) or the product they have to arrange for the funds again from their reserves/earnings. Still got the gist of the operation. Thanks.

Wish our fledgling MIC (private and sarkari both) would get a sizeable chunk of the action. Artillery shells, Howitzers, Vehicles, Ancillary equipment... War is such a big business.

[Tanaji]

Looks like US has finally given long range 300 km ATACMS to Ukraine and these were used for strikes against a Russian airbase in Crimea.

Wonder how many are been given as these systems are quite old.

[drnayar]

After recent €50 billion in economic aid by EU, there are now plans for a 5-year €100 billion military aid package by NATO (EU only).

…

Meanwhile, US military $60 billion aid package still stuck in US Congress politics.

NATO EU stepping out of US shadow. Over the years, US has become an unreliable partner.

The US $61 billion military aid will get Ukraine through 2024. However, this sort of US aid may be the last one given how difficult it was to get the bill through the divided US congress.

It provides NATO EU around a year to make its pledge of 5-year €100 billion military aid a reality by early 2025.

Then it becomes a matter of who outlasts whom over the next 5-years. Defense budgets increasing. MIC shifting gears. Who ends up with an upper-hand?

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-d ... first-time

Defence spending with UK industry by the Ministry of Defence has topped £25 billion for the first time, official statistics have revealed.

[drnayar]

Degrading Russian capabilities seems to be NATOs primary aim and they seem to be achieving this without firing a shot.

I think it will be open season for regime change in Russia once it / if happens.

Next is China.

Only way the former does not happen is China supporting Russia overtly. They could both win. They can flip the war and let the western countries spend themselves to oblivion just like the erstwhile USSR.

The effects are already there to see in western countries, with declining standard of living everywhere.

[srai]

…
However the money remains within the country only temporarily as the finished product is still given out. If/when the home country needs the money (for something else) or the product they have to arrange for the funds again from their reserves/earnings.
…

Yes, there will be additional spending to replace one’s own stocks.

On how long the money stays within the country, you have factor in these things due to aid:

• Corporate profits increase -> earnings tax
• Citizen Employees -> income tax
• Corporate investment and Job creation -> more employment and employed people spending their income on basic goods and services
• Goods and Services -> tax like vat

So the government would easily recover half of it (or probably more) via taxation. Then an injection of income earned consumer spending flowing through the rest of the economy.

[YashG]

ammunition will make mrginal difference if the manpower difference is not made up.

when russia retreated from kherson n kharkiv, it had way more ammo but not men.
Even now ukrainian withdrawal os men related, less ammo relatd.

[Arima]

Degrading Russian capabilities seems to be NATOs primary aim and they seem to be achieving this without firing a shot.

I think it will be open season for regime change in Russia once it / if happens.

Next is China.

Only way the former does not happen is China supporting Russia overtly. They could both win. They can flip the war and let the western countries spend themselves to oblivion just like the erstwhile USSR.

The effects are already there to see in western countries, with declining standard of living everywhere.

Putin won with >70% votes. regime change is out of question in Russland. looks like deepstate calcualtion on Ukr has gone terribly wrong. on 1 hand war is almost lost, Nato is in tatters, Tyson/ black rock investments plans for Ukr is gone.

on other hand, so called axis of evil can open second third or fourth front from Middle east to Far East.
French extended African neo colonialism 3.0 is in limbo

West thought they can bring Russkies on knees through sanction, but now Russland is active in building a non Dollar currency based global trade, Cheen apping tonnes of Gold and dumping US tresueary. Global South and Africa wanting to get into BRICS.

Interesting and dangerous times ahead.

[rajkumar]

How Russia Produces 3 million artillery shells a year




How are you supposed to win against this production volume!!!!

[srai]

Reset to tank warfare due to the threat posed by drones. 5 of the 31 Abrams destroyed so far by drones. US military advisors going to re-formulate tactics and re-train the Ukrainians.

[Aditya_V]

If Iraqi had kept ATGMs and mines in GW 1, the story would have been much more different, all the US Army Bulldozers covering Iraqi trenches would have all changed. Saddam had exhausted his country in the Iran war and gave an easy PR victory to the Americans.

[Pratyush]

Reset to tank warfare due to the threat posed by drones. 5 of the 31 Abrams destroyed so far by drones. US military advisors going to re-formulate tactics and re-train the Ukrainians.

The threat from drones capable of damaging or destroying tanks is over stated. If the tank is able to maintain situational awareness. Then a well trained crew can shoot down a Lancet type drone with the machine gun.

Secondly, the Israelis have developed an active protection system. That's integrated with the remotely operated machine gun. In order to deal with drones.



Thirdly, if the APS of the tank can deal with a top attack ATGM. Then it can also deal with a smaller loitering munition. The types favoured by the Americans.

[Pratyush]

How Russia Produces 3 million artillery shells a year


Snip.....


How are you supposed to win against this production volume!!!!

The flippant answer is, you don't poke the bear.

The serious answer is, you don't poke the bear.

[Aditya_V]

2nd I think most Russians realize they have been fooled by NATO and are fighting for thier country to exist as 1 country, whereas with Woke, never ending wars in Iraq, Afghanistan etc, the heart of NATO is not in this war. Thier existence is not threatened.

[Manish_P]

How Russia Produces 3 million artillery shells a year
....

How are you supposed to win against this production volume!!!!

Obiviously have a larger production volume

Seriously though, it is amazing capacity.

An article reports that the US was planning to increase capacity 6 times to produce some 1 million shells a year but it would happen over the course of the next 4-5 years.
https://www.defensenews.com/digital-sho ... n-ukraine/

With this kind of output from the Russians, the americans will need to get their allies to pitch in and step up their manufacturing.

It would be great if some of them invested in setting up lines in India

The Russians will throw a fit though.

[srai]

Russia is pretty much putting its entire economy behind the war effort. Let’s see how long it can keep up.

MIC is a money vacuum. It doesn’t necessarily contribute to long term economic prosperity.

[srai]

Pratyush,

Abrams donated to Ukraine doesn’t have APS or anti-drone jammers. So let’s see what the Americans come up with in terms of tactics and countermeasures.

Drones are not that easy to shoot down. If they were, Russia and Ukraine wouldn’t have lost so many armoured vehicles to kamikazi FPV. Even infantry have a hard time shooting at drones. There are plenty of videos where the drones circling around desperate soldiers trying to shoot or trying to hide to no avail.

[Rakesh]

Ukrainian Fighter Jets “Using iPads” To Control Western Weapons
https://www.twz.com/air/ukrainian-fight ... rn-weapons
26 April 2024

The Pentagon’s top weapons buyer talked about Ukraine’s success in using tablets to integrate Western weapons on its Soviet jets.

[Pratyush]

Srai,

There are two sizes/types of FPV strike drones in operation.

1) quad copter small sized drones.

2) Slightly larger Lancet type drones.

The quad copter drone is something that can be brought down with 12 gauge shotgun. But we have not seen those widely distributed to both armies. A Ukrainian start up has designed and anti drone shotgun.

A brief discription of same is provided in the YouTube link below.



https://youtu.be/vh3Z7OeWldI?si=MHknAIODrNnboPW7

The Lancet is too big for it to be short down by shotguns. It can be brought down using the .50 cal NSV machine gun the two armies are liberally equiped with.

The thing to note, that for every video of sucessful attack, there are several attacks that are failures and the video of which is not released by either side.

[ernest]

Perhaps, it would be wise to develop under barrel shotgun attachments to equip our infantry. A cheap add-on that will serve as the last resort, and be widely available.

For lancet types, modification of APS to deal with LMs need to be explored along with RCWS coupled with sensors/EO running control algorithms that can quickly shoot down approaching LMs. These can be mounted on vehicles/armor, on top of their usual armament/sensors.

Right now, the solutions we have are EW/hardkill mounted on dedicated platforms.

[Manish_P]

Well if all else fails, they can be set on fire and shown to be shot down and used for propaganda purposes...

U.S. Purchase of 81 Soviet-era combat aircraft fuels speculation: Aid for Kiev?

U.S. reportedly purchases 81 retired Soviet-era warplanes from Kazakhstan, sparking debates about their potential use by Kiev's forces.

The auctioned aircraft, including MIG-29 fighter jets and SU-24 bombers, were sold for a price of $19,000 each. However, concerns arise over the costs of modernizing these decades-old planes.

[Rakesh]

https://x.com/tom_bullock_/status/1784570476435476587 ---> Captured western equipment on display in Moscow.

[srai]

^^^

It would be interesting to see how the Russian weapon systems evolve now that they have in possession a wide range of Western military vehicles/equipment.

[srai]

…

U.S. Purchase of 81 Soviet-era combat aircraft fuels speculation: Aid for Kiev?

U.S. reportedly purchases 81 retired Soviet-era warplanes from Kazakhstan, sparking debates about their potential use by Kiev's forces.

The auctioned aircraft, including MIG-29 fighter jets and SU-24 bombers, were sold for a price of $19,000 each. However, concerns arise over the costs of modernizing these decades-old planes.

Cannibalisation for spare parts to support existing Ukrainian AF MiG-29s and Su-24s. They can get a “few” more years out of them until replaced by F-16s.

The first few F-16s are set to arrive in June/July 2024 but it will take at least another two more years to build up the force (experience and quantity) and the supporting infrastructure.

[hgupta]

What happened to Russian air superiority over Ukrainian skies??? What the hell happened to Russian Air Force?

[Pratyush]

Why this question?

Perhaps the Russians are fighting the war they want to fight. Shock and awe where required. Punishing arty strikes where it gets the job done.

The so called turtle tanks might look funny and desperate. But they have proven useful in getting the job done.

So watch the innovations taking place and learn from this as much as possible.

Because you can expect the Indian Army to have learnt from this as well.

[Deans]

What happened to Russian air superiority over Ukrainian skies??? What the hell happened to Russian Air Force?

Ukraine had more anti aircraft systems in operation than the whole of Europe combined. This was backed up by AWAC's which were outside
Ukrainian airspace and a dense satellite network. The Russian air force could not operate freely until a couple of months ago and in conjunction with long range glide & guided bombs which are released outside the range of Ukraine's short range SAMs.
Russia's loss rate per 1000 sorties is very low. In 2023-24 they have built more aircraft than they lost.

[Deans]

^^^
One example of how much losses Russians are incurring for incremental gains.

Ukrainian troops destroyed over 300 units of equipment near Novomykhailivka
That village was flattened and eventually overrun by the Russians but it was achieved at a great cost (both equipment and personnel).

Although Orxy is know to inflate Russian equipment losses (and understate Ukrainian losses), there has been no surge in losses, contrary to what these
satellite pics might suggest. I have run the numbers in my blog. Oryx figures suggest that Russian tank losses dropped from 8.6 per day in the first
80 days, to 3.2 per day in 2023 to 1 per day currently. Russia's tank production and refurbishment of old tanks is more than current losses.
The satellite pics show all the vehicles lost on both sides since 2014 (though most are from 2022).

[Deans]

Pratyush,

Abrams donated to Ukraine doesn’t have APS or anti-drone jammers. So let’s see what the Americans come up with in terms of tactics and countermeasures.

Drones are not that easy to shoot down. If they were, Russia and Ukraine wouldn’t have lost so many armoured vehicles to kamikazi FPV. Even infantry have a hard time shooting at drones. There are plenty of videos where the drones circling around desperate soldiers trying to shoot or trying to hide to no avail.

There are other problems with the Abrams.
The (gas turbine) engine and equipment is too complicated for Ukrainian armored units to repair, they have to be sent to rear bases for repair.
Leopards have to be sent back to Poland (which also couldn't do repairs, so they were sent to Germany).
The engine runs on a different grade of fuel than Russian tanks.
The heat emitted by the engine makes then highly visible to thermal sensors, which then attract drones.
They have difficulty operating in the soft mud that Ukraine has 4 months in the year

[Manish_P]

..
Cannibalisation for spare parts to support existing Ukrainian AF MiG-29s and Su-24s. They can get a “few” more years out of them until replaced by F-16s.
..

Understood, sir. I was wondering what would be there to salvage for the low prices. Then again 1 USD is about 440 kazak tenge.

[sanman]

Is it true that a Russian TU-22 bomber was downed by Ukrainian SAMs?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-JbGLjNJ5o

[Rakesh]

There are other problems with the Abrams.
The (gas turbine) engine and equipment is too complicated for Ukrainian armored units to repair, they have to be sent to rear bases for repair.
Leopards have to be sent back to Poland (which also couldn't do repairs, so they were sent to Germany).
The engine runs on a different grade of fuel than Russian tanks.
The heat emitted by the engine makes then highly visible to thermal sensors, which then attract drones.
They have difficulty operating in the soft mud that Ukraine has 4 months in the year

They had the same issues during GW1 and GW2 in Iraq.

The mythical superiority of Amreeki maal over their Russian counterparts.

[Rakesh]

What happened to Russian air superiority over Ukrainian skies??? What the hell happened to Russian Air Force?

Wrong set of questions to ask.

Where is Western air superiority? This war has been dragging on for 2+ years now. Why has the West - led by Amreeka - not been able to overwhelm Russian forces in Ukraine? Why is Russia still in this fight? Why is Putin allowed to continue this war? An entire generation of Ukrainians are no longer alive due to Zelensky's stupidity.

If you read the earlier version of this thread, you had MUTUs claiming that Russia would be overrun and defeated in a matter of a few weeks. That India had made a strategic blunder by aligning itself with Russia. All Russian-origin arms in India would face a similar ignominious defeat at the hands of the Chinese. Only a military alliance with Amreeka would save India from the Chinese horde.

Ab Kya Hua?

[Rakesh]

Oops

Another US precision-guided weapon falls prey to Russian electronic warfare, US says
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024 ... ys/396141/
28 April 2024

A U.S. defense official would not provide specifics, but is likely referring to Boeing’s Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb.