Lok Sabha Elections 2024 - World's largest elections - Desh Ka Garv [World's envy]

[vijayk]

Big sympathy wave for Thackrey and pawar

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/lok-sab ... al-5538107

... Dhoti shiver

[bhavani]

My estimate.

MH - NDA will loose 12-15 seats
Ap - will gain 8-10 seats
bengal - stay the same
UP - will gain 5 seats
TN - 1 additional seat
KA - will loose 8-10 seats

NDA as a whole will hit 310

[Atmavik]

Big sympathy wave for Thackrey and pawar
... Dhoti shiver

wa worried abt this masterstroke. hope its not a 2004 all over again.

[Sumeet]

Big sympathy wave for Thackrey and pawar

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/lok-sab ... al-5538107

... Dhoti shiver

Why is there a sympathy wave for both of these cretins ?

This is central govt elections, not local issue. One can show sympathy in state election.

National Election is about Infra & Development, Foreign policy, Internal & External Security, Military & Space development, National level welfare policies. This is not time to do petty politics. One has state elections for that. There is no reason to make Maharastra pay, also MH folks understand that Mumbai is top target for all terror attacks, do they want a repeat of 2004 to 2013 time period ?

[chetak]

> jinnah's antecedents are well known in India. there is nothing new in ahmed's book for an Indian audience

@chetak, on this one point, I disagree. Well-known to most, but apparently not to the Leftist-Marxist ecosystem. It is very good to refute them with a Pakistani author -- their usual charge of "hindutva fanaticism" doesn't get even an inch.

Gupta ji,

The commies know jinnah's antecedents better than most of us, especially when you consider the fact that they were ardent supporters of pukestan

That they chose to whitewash it is another matter all together.

That is why the commies were in the forefront on the rewriting India's false history

But you point is valid.

Use ahmed to refute and humiliate them

[williams]

If you take a look at the Map of 2019 Election, it was still a massive win. So I will be happy if NDA makes that number. However, leaders set goals which will challenge the status quo and hence this new 400 number. My calculation will be (353 - 5) (2019 seats) + 10 (AP) + 5 (TEL) + 5 TN + 5 (WB) + 5 (North East) + 2 (Goa) + 2 (KL) + 2 (Odisha) + 6 (UP) = 390

For me if we get to the above number, NDA has got a massive mandate and BJP has got a firm foot hold in TN and KL to build further.

400 number could give some Lefty Media talking points when NDA could not make that and they continue with their delusion of them having some influence in NDA not achieving that target. While the others move on to Modi 3.0. What I would expect is that the vote share should increase from ~ 45% to 50%

The biggest jump in North India will be in UP from 62 to 78, which is about 16 new seats
The 10 you gave in AP is very very very conservative. With all three on one side, jagan will have tough time getting more than 5 seats.
Even in WB, momta begum is only sure in 7, which have peaceful in majority, other than that BJP can go up to 35. That would be a jump of 17
Punjab is going to be a big surprise for indi alliance is what most of the on ground BJP supporters are saying. It seems even the mazbahi sikhs are now leaning towards BJP

The only state I am worried is Maharashatra

Yeah my numbers are conservative. If things go great in the states you are mentioning, then June 4th will become a day of sulking for the lefties And there will be another 3 months of uninterrupted entertainment in the media.

[OmkarC]

Hearing various podcasts from local media + experts from Jaipur dialogues & few other shows (albeit BJP leaning), it is being argued that low turnout has impacted both Hindu & peaceful voters equally. The first two phases were apparently the toughest for BJP and it has gained 100-120 out of 190 so far.



For the upcoming phases,

Looking at Telugu reports:
AP: NDA gains 10-12. This is being grudgingly admitted by even those who aren't big fans of BJP.
TG: BJP won 4 last time, likely to gain at least 4 and if some of the close fights finish as expected another 3. So, 11 in best case, but 8 is a good conservative estimate.

So between the two Telugu states its a gain of at least 14 seats for NDA (6 for BJP alone, conservatively).

Looking at reports from some Bhajapa leaning reporters on other states:
- UP, Bihar, Only hearing about big gains in UP and status quo in Bihar. Net gain: 12 (conservatively)
- Raj, apparently tough fight in several seats. Net gain: -3 (ultra conservative)
- Minor losses in Haryana. Net gain: -2 (ultra conservative)
- TN, at least Annamali & TTV Dhinakaran should sail through. Net gain: +2
- Karnataka, Folks say that JDS alliance helped, but let's discount that. Net gain: -4 (conservatively)
- North-east (barring Assam, Tripura & AP). NDA, net gain: -3 (assume NDA losses half of its seats)
- Minor gains from WB. Net gain: +3 (conservatively)
- Minor gains from Orissa. Net gain: +3 (conservatively)
- Ignore positive surprise from Punjab. Assume nothing comes through from Kerala Net gain: 0
- Assume No major changes to 2019 in MP, Gujarat, Delhi, Goa, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Assam, Himachal, Uttarakhand, Tripura, Arunachal, Jammu.

So, overall, very conservatively it seems like a +22 seat gain for NDA. Hope this is ok to offset some losses from Maharashtra and then leave some margin for gains ?

[Tanaji]

Just because Chhagan Lakhoba Bhujbal says there is a wave doesnt mean there is a wave and there definitely isnt one for Uddhav Thackrey. No one is hankering for UTs return - most people I speak to call UT and his side kick cretins.

It will be a different thing for Sharad Pawar though. He personally enjoys a lot of support in Marathwada and its regions. People will have sympathy on how it all went down. Plus there is also the Jarange Patil factor and how he tells the members of his cult to vote.

BJP will lose seats in MH - but it wont be that much. Have faith in Fadnavis - but personally the cost paid by getting into bed with a scamster like Ajit Pawar is very high.

[chetak]

who are the congis going to blame this on ..... can't just keep on blaming the BJP every time



Congress suffers major blow, party’s Delhi President Arvinder Singh Lovely resigns citing interference and alliance with ‘liar’ AAP



https://www.financialexpress.com/india- ... p/3470505/

[chetak]

Delhi High Court says Arvind Kejriwal has put personal interest over national interest, HC is very angry

HC - "You failed to provide textbooks to 2,00,000 students. distribution of books, uniforms etc… this is not our job."

"It is your choice that you have said that the government will continue despite the Chief Minister being in custody"

"If you want us to comment on it, we will come down with all the rigour" - Delhi High Court


https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 633813.cms

[chetak]

we are not the same






Tamilnadu and Kerala have emerged as prime destinations for medical tourism in India, setting a remarkable example. However, the act of transferring organs to nations that are unfriendly towards us, while neglecting our people in need of life-saving treatments, is truly distressing.

Moreover, beneath the facade of these initiatives, lurks the dark world of black market organ trade, engaging in unethical practices of selling organs. The only solution to curb such malpractices is to impose a ban on organ transportation for such purposes.

[chetak]

[chetak]

@shashidigital

While 970 million Indians freely exercise their franchise in the General Elections over the next two months, this is the extent to which an array of elements across Global Media Outlets, Global Think-Tanks, Activists and NGOs have worked overtime to undermine the legitimacy and integrity of the Indian Democracy :




"Will the outcome of India's election increase intolerance" - Deutsche Welle

"Modification of India is almost complete" - TIME Magazine

"India’s election: fixing a win by outlawing dissent damages democracy" - UK Guardian

"Is India's BJP the world's most ruthlessly efficient political party?" - Financial Times

"‘Messianic spell’: how Narendra Modi created a cult of personality" - UK Guardian

"Narendra Modi Is Preparing New Attacks on Democratic Rights" - Jacobin Magazine

"With democracy under threat in Narendra Modi’s India, how free and fair will this year’s election be?" - The Conversation, Australian Research Council

"India can grow fast with or without Narendra Modi" - Reuters

"Modi Is Making India's Election All About Himself" - Bloomberg

"Progressive South Is Rejecting Modi" - Bloomberg

"Modi's Campaign May Have Already Peaked" - Bloomberg

"'Billionaire Raj’ Is Pushing India Toward Autocracy" - Bloomberg

"India’s Voting Machines Are Raising Too Many Questions" - Bloomberg

"Modi’s Sledgehammer Politics Are Battering Indian Democracy" - Bloomberg

"Billionaire Press Barons Are Squeezing Media Freedom in India" - Bloomberg

"Indian democracy developed east Asian characteristics - Voters are increasingly willing to trade political freedom for economic progress" - Financial Times

"The ‘mother of democracy’ is not in good shape" - Financial Times

"Modi's Temple of Lies" - New York Times

" Mr. Modi has remained deeply popular even as he has become more autocratic. He has paid little price — and even found support — for his effort to remake India into what analysts have called an illiberal democracy." - New York Times

"India Democracy in name only" - Le Monde France

"Narendra Modi’s illiberalism may imperil India’s economic progress" - The Economist Magazine

"The Right to Education and Democratic Backsliding in India" - Verfassunsblog

"Democratic backsliding in India could prompt West to review its cooperation with Delhi" - Chatham House

"As India goes to the polls, can democracy deliver a better life for all of its people? - Behind a veneer of progress, injustice and inequality propped up by corruption and the caste system haunt the subcontinent" - UK Guardian

"India's elections this year stand out for their 'undemocratic nature' - Modi is turning democracy into electoral authoritarianism." - Le Monde France

"Modi’s ‘Make in India’ Didn’t Make Jobs" - Foreign Policy Magazine

"India’s middle class warm to autocracy under Modi" - The Press, New Zealand

"Two thirds of Indians back autocracy as Modi eyes third term" - UK Times

"Indian Democracy in Peril: Slide into Autocracy Likely to Continue" - Nippon Japan

"US should not normalize Modi’s autocratic and illiberal India" - UK Guardian

"Why is Biden silent on Modi and India’s slide toward autocracy?" - LA Times

"As India rises, can the West steer Modi away from autocracy?" - UK Times

"India's democratic regression - The autocratic bent of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is clear" - LeMonde France

"Authoritarian drift in the world's largest democracy" - The Informant New Zealand

"Faced with Modi’s authoritarian drift, is India still the largest democracy in the world?" - Actual News Magazine London

"Modi’s party using ‘authoritarian playbook’ to cripple opposition in India" - UK Independent

"Narendra Modi regime suppresses freedoms" - La Croix International Catholic News

"What Has Happened to the Rule of Law in India?" - The Atlantic Magazine

"The Tragedy Of India’s Authoritarian Descent" - The Bullet Socialist Project

"Modi’s India has become less liberal" - Chatham House

"India is the future of the authoritarian internet" - The Daily Dot Austin Texas

"Increasing Authoritarianism in India under Narendra Modi" - Australian Institute of International Affairs

"Narendra Modi Is Developing a New Template for Authoritarian Control of the Internet" - Jacobin Magazine

"India’s authoritarian leader with his own app" - The Week, USA

"Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist government is escalating its attack on civil rights" - UK Guardian

"Has Modi Pushed Indian Democracy Past Its Breaking Point?" - New Yorker Magazine

"Who Can Stop Modi and His Authoritarian Vision for India?" - Jacobin Magazine

"Freedom of Press is Dealt Deadly Blows by Modi's Proto-Fascist Regime in India" - Global Policy Journal UK

"Modi's Personality Cult Has Replaced India's Democracy" - Foreign Policy Magazine

"Modi’s India Is Where Global Democracy Dies" - New York Times

"Australia’s Woeful Response to Rising Authoritarianism in India" - Australian Institute of International Affairs

"Lament for India's descent into authoritarianism - Modi's ethnic nationalism threatens to deepen divisions in the subcontinent" - Nikkei Asia

"Crushing dissent in a new paranoid India" - Lowy Institute

"Despite Modi, India Has Not Yet Become a Hindu Authoritarian State" - Cato Institute

"Modi’s Slide Toward Autocracy - How Modi Is Using Hinduism to Turn India Into an Autocracy" - Foreign Policy Magazine

"India Under Modi Is Becoming a Brutal Authoritarian State" - Haaertz Israel

"Authoritarianism Is Winning on Every Front in India" - Reason Magazine

2:56 PM · Apr 20, 2024

[triank]

@shashidigital

While 970 million Indians freely exercise their franchise in the General Elections over the next two months, this is the extent to which an array of elements across Global Media Outlets, Global Think-Tanks, Activists and NGOs have worked overtime to undermine the legitimacy and integrity of the Indian Democracy :




"Will the outcome of India's election increase intolerance" - Deutsche Welle

"Modification of India is almost complete" - TIME Magazine

"India’s election: fixing a win by outlawing dissent damages democracy" - UK Guardian

"Is India's BJP the world's most ruthlessly efficient political party?" - Financial Times

"‘Messianic spell’: how Narendra Modi created a cult of personality" - UK Guardian

"Narendra Modi Is Preparing New Attacks on Democratic Rights" - Jacobin Magazine

"With democracy under threat in Narendra Modi’s India, how free and fair will this year’s election be?" - The Conversation, Australian Research Council

"India can grow fast with or without Narendra Modi" - Reuters

"Modi Is Making India's Election All About Himself" - Bloomberg

"Progressive South Is Rejecting Modi" - Bloomberg

"Modi's Campaign May Have Already Peaked" - Bloomberg

"'Billionaire Raj’ Is Pushing India Toward Autocracy" - Bloomberg

"India’s Voting Machines Are Raising Too Many Questions" - Bloomberg

"Modi’s Sledgehammer Politics Are Battering Indian Democracy" - Bloomberg

"Billionaire Press Barons Are Squeezing Media Freedom in India" - Bloomberg

"Indian democracy developed east Asian characteristics - Voters are increasingly willing to trade political freedom for economic progress" - Financial Times

"The ‘mother of democracy’ is not in good shape" - Financial Times

"Modi's Temple of Lies" - New York Times

" Mr. Modi has remained deeply popular even as he has become more autocratic. He has paid little price — and even found support — for his effort to remake India into what analysts have called an illiberal democracy." - New York Times

"India Democracy in name only" - Le Monde France

"Narendra Modi’s illiberalism may imperil India’s economic progress" - The Economist Magazine

"The Right to Education and Democratic Backsliding in India" - Verfassunsblog

"Democratic backsliding in India could prompt West to review its cooperation with Delhi" - Chatham House

"As India goes to the polls, can democracy deliver a better life for all of its people? - Behind a veneer of progress, injustice and inequality propped up by corruption and the caste system haunt the subcontinent" - UK Guardian

"India's elections this year stand out for their 'undemocratic nature' - Modi is turning democracy into electoral authoritarianism." - Le Monde France

"Modi’s ‘Make in India’ Didn’t Make Jobs" - Foreign Policy Magazine

"India’s middle class warm to autocracy under Modi" - The Press, New Zealand

"Two thirds of Indians back autocracy as Modi eyes third term" - UK Times

"Indian Democracy in Peril: Slide into Autocracy Likely to Continue" - Nippon Japan

"US should not normalize Modi’s autocratic and illiberal India" - UK Guardian

"Why is Biden silent on Modi and India’s slide toward autocracy?" - LA Times

"As India rises, can the West steer Modi away from autocracy?" - UK Times

"India's democratic regression - The autocratic bent of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is clear" - LeMonde France

"Authoritarian drift in the world's largest democracy" - The Informant New Zealand

"Faced with Modi’s authoritarian drift, is India still the largest democracy in the world?" - Actual News Magazine London

"Modi’s party using ‘authoritarian playbook’ to cripple opposition in India" - UK Independent

"Narendra Modi regime suppresses freedoms" - La Croix International Catholic News

"What Has Happened to the Rule of Law in India?" - The Atlantic Magazine

"The Tragedy Of India’s Authoritarian Descent" - The Bullet Socialist Project

"Modi’s India has become less liberal" - Chatham House

"India is the future of the authoritarian internet" - The Daily Dot Austin Texas

"Increasing Authoritarianism in India under Narendra Modi" - Australian Institute of International Affairs

"Narendra Modi Is Developing a New Template for Authoritarian Control of the Internet" - Jacobin Magazine

"India’s authoritarian leader with his own app" - The Week, USA

"Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist government is escalating its attack on civil rights" - UK Guardian

"Has Modi Pushed Indian Democracy Past Its Breaking Point?" - New Yorker Magazine

"Who Can Stop Modi and His Authoritarian Vision for India?" - Jacobin Magazine

"Freedom of Press is Dealt Deadly Blows by Modi's Proto-Fascist Regime in India" - Global Policy Journal UK

"Modi's Personality Cult Has Replaced India's Democracy" - Foreign Policy Magazine

"Modi’s India Is Where Global Democracy Dies" - New York Times

"Australia’s Woeful Response to Rising Authoritarianism in India" - Australian Institute of International Affairs

"Lament for India's descent into authoritarianism - Modi's ethnic nationalism threatens to deepen divisions in the subcontinent" - Nikkei Asia

"Crushing dissent in a new paranoid India" - Lowy Institute

"Despite Modi, India Has Not Yet Become a Hindu Authoritarian State" - Cato Institute

"Modi’s Slide Toward Autocracy - How Modi Is Using Hinduism to Turn India Into an Autocracy" - Foreign Policy Magazine

"India Under Modi Is Becoming a Brutal Authoritarian State" - Haaertz Israel

"Authoritarianism Is Winning on Every Front in India" - Reason Magazine

2:56 PM · Apr 20, 2024

'gori chamdi 'laal salaam', fully belagaam' is understood..even israeli tabloid's 'opinion' understood (they too have many lefshits)..but what explains japanese publishers' malcontent?! case of doing bidding for their funders who might be gori chamdi & dar-ul-hinslamiya nations?

[Cyrano]

Who gives a Pokemon's ass?

[sanjayc]

Was in Japan recently. They are fully racist towards Indians. It is a closed and dying society. I could hardly see any children anywhere.

[SRajesh]

Exactly who give's P arse
Aaayega to Modiji onleee!!
After that a few scores to be settled!!
or not
The only concerns is if Moonstone is activated post ECI announcing the results!!
Can the SC hold up the MP's taking oath and the rest to follow

[triank]

my guess/observation is that not even the residents of these countries where these turd-rate garbage gets written (through brown sepoys) & published read/care two aanas about kachra-failaoing on india. its mostly only for consumption of & regurgitating by useful deracinated idiots in/of india. till date i havent met anyone from politically antagonistic nations particularly who asked/discussed with me anything on these topics expressing 'concern' (i may be wrong; and havent met any IT-vity types so very narrow 'sample-size'); only once recently met a pinoy guy who was asking me some questions about those burning pyre visuals captured & beamingly circulated by indian dhimmedia during sinovid-19, but those too were not directly related to that, just some general questions on indian/hindu-traditions & customs.
on the contrary i have met a finnish gentleman who surprisingly was/is somewhat aware about indian govt & some happenings esp related to india's foreign-policy & related matters, and is a fan of dr s. jaishankar and palki sharma. have remained in touch with him.

[triank]

Exactly who give's P arse
Aaayega to Modiji onleee!!
After that a few scores to be settled!!
or not
The only concerns is if Moonstone is activated post ECI announcing the results!!
Can the SC hold up the MP's taking oath and the rest to follow

moonstone ji was recently very appreciative of & apparently excited about the new laws brought-in by GoI. of-late he has been seen heaping praises & all too on pm modi/govt iirc some or the other time.

[triank]

Was in Japan recently. They are fully racist towards Indians. It is a closed and dying society. I could hardly see any children anywhere.

yes, have watched/read about it. seemed like the south korean type of attitude. there's one haryanvi chhora who lives there & has a YT channel (forgot name). he though hasnt mentioned this in his vids AFAIK; or may be i missed that one.

[chetak]

'gori chamdi 'laal salaam', fully belagaam' is understood..even israeli tabloid's 'opinion' understood (they too have many lefshits)..but what explains japanese publishers' malcontent?! case of doing bidding for their funders who might be gori chamdi & dar-ul-hinslamiya nations?

triank ji,


The mainstream media in japan is quiet and supportive of their govt but the media ecosystem there also has a left leaning component that is critical of the govt and they have no completion from the mainstream wallas.

The lefty media is thought to be cheen funded

That is where the criticism comes from

[triank]

'gori chamdi 'laal salaam', fully belagaam' is understood..even israeli tabloid's 'opinion' understood (they too have many lefshits)..but what explains japanese publishers' malcontent?! case of doing bidding for their funders who might be gori chamdi & dar-ul-hinslamiya nations?

triank ji,


The mainstream media in japan is quiet and supportive of their govt but the media ecosystem there also has a left leaning component that is critical of the govt and they have no completion from the mainstream wallas.

The lefty media is thought to be cheen funded

That is where the criticism comes from

got it!
this cheeni virus is all-pervasive!

[Sumeet]

Well before we look at others (outsiders) we should see inside.

This narrative was started by our own opposition parties when they were repeatedly loosing elections to BJP. It was matter of time that leftist connected machinery across the globe caught it and started to use it against India.

We are our worst enemy and this is also historically true.

[OmkarC]

Anti-hindu, anti-India propaganda has been steadily infused into any country that has been an ally of India (France, Israel, Japan, etc), usually through articles written by Indian librandus often w/ Hindu sounding names.

Smita Prakash from ANI has a great interview w/ Shashi Shekhar, Prasar Bharati ex-CEO on this topic:

[chetak]

Anti-hindu, anti-India propaganda has been steadily infused into any country that has been an ally of India (France, Israel, Japan, etc), usually through articles written by Indian librandus often w/ Hindu sounding names.

Smita Prakash from ANI has a great interview w/ Shashi Shekhar, Prasar Bharati ex-CEO on this topic:

[youtube]Yyrioxqv6CE[youtube]

OmkarC ji,



@shashidigital --> Shashi Shekhar, ex-CEO Prasar Bharati

[A_Gupta]

So, overall, very conservatively it seems like a +22 seat gain for NDA.

If the NDA falls short of 400 by 25-30 seats, what happens to the Opposition complaints about EVMs?

[Anujan]

^^^^
Simble onlee -- It is further proof that EVMs are hacked in such a way that they do not give out full victory and arouse suspicion, but partial victory so that people do not realize it was hacked

[KL Dubey]

Pradeep Singh gives a crisp and clear analysis of the fake narratives (pharji vimarsh) swirling around this election. Watching this will save a lot of unsubstantiated posts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HalRqBZ8_r0

[AkshaySG]

'gori chamdi 'laal salaam', fully belagaam' is understood..even israeli tabloid's 'opinion' understood (they too have many lefshits)..but what explains japanese publishers' malcontent?! case of doing bidding for their funders who might be gori chamdi & dar-ul-hinslamiya nations?

Whether its Japan or Israel or Germany or any country for that matter the views towards India of an average person will be primarily shaped by mainstream media consumption ( Papers, Movies , Articles etc)

So for most people in these countries the only way they ever hear about India is if BBC/NYT publishes some garbage or a sepoy kindly makes a poverty centric movie like Monkey Man/Slumdog. Social media especially Twitter/ TikTok etc also push a lot of anti India content . So it should not be a surpise to anyone that they have such skewed views.

The failure of Indian policy and Indian right wing policy specifically is that we do not have 1 single such publication/content creator who can make effective reports/documentaries/in depth analysis pieces that can be shared with the wider world. We moan about the Al Jazeera's and DW's of the world but why can't we make such documentaries on current events from our perspective.

For each article listed in your post If even 10 out of 10k readers are convinced that Indian elections are a sham then its a good day at work for this cabal

[sanjayc]

The failure of Indian policy and Indian right wing policy specifically is that we do not have 1 single such publication/content creator who can make effective reports/documentaries/in depth analysis pieces that can be shared with the wider world. We moan about the Al Jazeera's and DW's of the world but why can't we make such documentaries on current events from our perspective.

Why blame the right wing? Have Hindu voters ever supported the right wing, from Bihar to Kolkata to Kerala to Tamil Nadu? Their first voting choice was rabid communists or anti-Hindu Congress or casteist regional parties. BJP and RSS were derided as unsophisticated.

[Pratyush]

^^^

You are not going to make any difference to the opinions of the western audiance by trying to speak to them directly. Because those opinions are shaped by people who can best be described as house slaves. Speaking to the massa what those slaves think massa wants to hear.

The only way to defeat these people is to make them irrelevant to the conversation. The way to do so is to economically grow so strong that the house slaves are not longer able to shape public opinion.

[KL Dubey]

2019 election:

BJP contested 437 seats and left 106 for allies. Result: 303 BJP and 50 allies. Whopping 69% seat conversion by BJP but lower showing by allies (47%).
The latter was due mainly to the wipeout of AIADMK in TN and SAD in PB. Additionally, Thakre got only 78% seat conversion in MH whereas BJP achieved 92% conversion. And of course other small parties contesting in tough regions like TN and KL had no chance.

2024 election:

Things are a lot different.

BJP is contesting 443 seats. It will hold or better its vote share in almost all the seats that it won last time. So we can take 300 seats from 2019 as a good baseline. Additionally this time it will do much better in many states:

UP: last time BJP only got 62 due to SP/BSP/RLD alliance. There is an excellent chance to add 10 seats for BJP this time. 2-3 seats may go to SP (Akalless family members). In addition to the huge pro-incumbency for Modi and Yogi, this time it is only "do ladke" in the opposition - useless alliance since the leaders are useless and both compete for the same vote bank of greens. RLD is with NDA and BSP is doing a half-hearted (or nearly non-existent) campaign.

WB: MoMo has by now painted herself into a corner with little room for escape. The TMC-green nexus has shown its ugly character and is now being strongly attacked by central law enforcement. Money supply is also tight and green goons are fearful this time. So there is a good chance of getting +10 here.

OD: BJP has grown organically here, slowly eating away at BJD vote share (at least for LS elections). They should get +5 here.

TN+TG+KL: The Modi factor and strong local leaders, along with desire for change among voters, will likely yield dramatic results. Likely a +10 surge for BJP on its own.

Other areas: BJP will pick up new seats here and there. E.g, it will get more seats in PB, AP, etc. Maybe another +5.

All this adds up to about +40 for BJP alone.

All said and done, with a bit of give and take on both the "300 baseline" and the additional opportunities, I think BJP should comfortably get to 330, with 345 being a bonus (there seems a lot of desire for change in many states that pollsters may not capture fully).

The allies are contesting about 100 seats.

Despite a more complex situation in MH and BH, the three traditional seat-producing allies (SS, JDU, and LJP) will mostly hold their own. Of the 34 seats they are contesting, they should be able to convert at least 25. This is quite conservative given their much higher contribution in 2019.

The two new members (TDP and NCP) should be able to bring in at least 15 seats.

Finally, this time the smaller parties contesting on about 45 seats have much better chances, especially the NEDA parties and in the south (PMK, JDS, JSP etc). The small parties in UP and BH will also yield a few seats. In total I would expect them to get about 15 seats.

So a conservative total for allies is 55, slightly better than last time. This can go up to 60 in my opinion if the Modi momentum in states like TN, MH, BH, AP turns out to be higher than anticipated.

With the final distribution of seats within the NDA, BJP will be responsible for getting about 340, not 370....and the allies are responsible for getting about 60. This means the seat conversion challenge is 77% for BJP and 60% for allies (compared to 69% and 47% in 2019). Thus, both BJP and allies are challenged to improve seat conversion by about 10 percentage points overall.

This does not correspond to a 10 percentage points increase in vote share across the board. In most seats where NDA has a good chance of converting this time, an increase of 2-7% in vote share will be enough to tip the balance from last time. There will be other seats where vote share will increase hugely by 15-20 percentage points but from a very low base, so NDA may not yet win. These will be the seats ripe for conversion in 2029.

Conclusions:

The expected range for BJP is 330-345, and for allies 55-60. So for NDA the range is 385-405.

NDA is going from strength to strength in each LS election - from 336 in 2014, to 353 in 2019, and heading higher in 2024.

"400 paar" serves two purposes: it is a credible and challenging target as well as a slogan to get workers excited about it.

Party organizations in BJP and allies are all being challenged to perform higher, but not unrealistically.

[A_Gupta]

The failure of Indian policy and Indian right wing policy specifically is that we do not have 1 single such publication/content creator who can make effective reports/documentaries/in depth analysis pieces that can be shared with the wider world.

IMO, there are quite a few good content creators. The issue is not content creation. It is that none of the gatekeepers of the West will publish them.

E.g., in the print media, a Rana Ayyub or Arundhati Roy will get a place in the New York Times, and similar folks will get into the New Yorker or The Atlantic or the Washington Post. But a Minhaz Merchant or a Palki Sharma -- not a chance. But without the means of dissemination in the West, it doesn't matter how much good content is there. The Indian Left has international ties that the Indian Right sorely lacks.

[Pratyush]

https://www.businesstoday.in/india/stor ... 2024-04-29

Raghuram Rajan on wealth distribution idea: 'Let's try and elevate, rather than bring the successful down'

Published on 29th of April 24.

Imagine how beyond the pale the current Congress leadership is. That even this charlatan has distanced himself from them.

[chetak]

'gori chamdi 'laal salaam', fully belagaam' is understood..even israeli tabloid's 'opinion' understood (they too have many lefshits)..but what explains japanese publishers' malcontent?! case of doing bidding for their funders who might be gori chamdi & dar-ul-hinslamiya nations?

Whether its Japan or Israel or Germany or any country for that matter the views towards India of an average person will be primarily shaped by mainstream media consumption ( Papers, Movies , Articles etc)

So for most people in these countries the only way they ever hear about India is if BBC/NYT publishes some garbage or a sepoy kindly makes a poverty centric movie like Monkey Man/Slumdog. Social media especially Twitter/ TikTok etc also push a lot of anti India content . So it should not be a surpise to anyone that they have such skewed views.

The failure of Indian policy and Indian right wing policy specifically is that we do not have 1 single such publication/content creator who can make effective reports/documentaries/in depth analysis pieces that can be shared with the wider world. We moan about the Al Jazeera's and DW's of the world but why can't we make such documentaries on current events from our perspective.

For each article listed in your post If even 10 out of 10k readers are convinced that Indian elections are a sham then its a good day at work for this cabal

Akshay ji,


Why was there no support for republic TV

why did no one from the right come out against the shameful "arrest" of arnab goswami

the murderous ahole who led the arresting team carried an AK-47

arnab wound up fighting a lonely battle all by himself with no one from the BJP even speaking up for him

what support can the right expect when these are the stooopide policies that the right follows

every political party in India worth its salt had party owned media that also includes print, electronic and audio visual ecosystems to set and control the narrative

The BJP has the communication capabilities of a particularly reticent autistic child and it has very little idea of the enormous power of media management

[chetak]

https://www.businesstoday.in/india/stor ... 2024-04-29

Raghuram Rajan on wealth distribution idea: 'Let's try and elevate, rather than bring the successful down'

Published on 29th of April 24.

Imagine how beyond the pale the current Congress leadership is. That even this charlatan has distanced himself from them.

Pratyush ji,

congi policies are dictated by the global left with the dimwit visiting his handlers frequently to get his marching orders.

They get their marching orders from soreass and his ilk

the entitled eyetaalian clown is but a charlatan medium who is pushing their agenda

His closest adviser is yechhh-ury so one can imagine the IQ levels in play and his tone, tenor, demeanour and presentations are abrasive, coarse, and corrosive.

He comes across as subversive instead of projecting an agenda that enhances and enriches his vision for the future

[rajkumar]

Pradeep Bhandari(प्रदीप भंडारी)@pradip103

After Phase 1&2, Is BJP losing momentum on ground in 2024 Lok Sabha Elections ? Watch :

https://x.com/pradip103/status/1784614597867299109/

[Sachin]

Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Congress's Akshay Bam withdraws nomination from Indore, Kailash Vijayvargiya welcomes him into BJP
After Surat now Indore. The candidate selection scheme identified by Shri. Pappu Ghandi & Co seems to be too finnicky. Winnability or even some intelligence on the candidate's behaviour seems to be ignored.

[AkshaySG]

Why blame the right wing? Have Hindu voters ever supported the right wing, from Bihar to Kolkata to Kerala to Tamil Nadu? Their first voting choice was rabid communists or anti-Hindu Congress or casteist regional parties. BJP and RSS were derided as unsophisticated.

Because this is politics.. You cannot wait for voters to change their minds simply based on the good work you have to convince them and if that requires effective use of media and subtle propaganda then so be it. Every other "democracy" in the world does it and in many cases better than us.

[AkshaySG]

Akshay ji,


Why was there no support for republic TV

why did no one from the right come out against the shameful "arrest" of arnab goswami

the murderous ahole who led the arresting team carried an AK-47

arnab wound up fighting a lonely battle all by himself with no one from the BJP even speaking up for him

what support can the right expect when these are the stooopide policies that the right follows

every political party in India worth its salt had party owned media that also includes print, electronic and audio visual ecosystems to set and control the narrative

The BJP has the communication capabilities of a particularly reticent autistic child and it has very little idea of the enormous power of media management

Agreed. The handling of Arnab and Nupur Sharma situation was extremely poor. You essentially are saying to your supporters that the cabal can get you and we will do next to nothing to support you.