Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

[srin]

Btw, in a general vein, I don't understand the obsession to take cities/towns - Bakhmut or Avdeevka and now Kharkiv (other than the PR part). Fighting street by street, taking up buildings, steel plants etc is such a big waste of time. And worse is when the forces send tanks into cities. I thought that they learnt the lesson in Stalingrad.

A city is a parasite completely dependent upon external entities for food, power and fuel (and maybe water too). Just outflank the city and threaten to encircle it - the city will empty itself. And if it isn't empty, it'll starve itself in a few months, and it'll be militarily irrelevant long before.

[drnayar]

Btw, in a general vein, I don't understand the obsession to take cities/towns - Bakhmut or Avdeevka and now Kharkiv (other than the PR part). Fighting street by street, taking up buildings, steel plants etc is such a big waste of time. And worse is when the forces send tanks into cities. I thought that they learnt the lesson in Stalingrad.

A city is a parasite completely dependent upon external entities for food, power and fuel (and maybe water too). Just outflank the city and threaten to encircle it - the city will empty itself. And if it isn't empty, it'll starve itself in a few months, and it'll be militarily irrelevant long before.

you need to "motivate" the people inside if you want to keep the territory long term. Also it becomes a useful buffer against a more hostile region. A lot more would need to coerce but done the right way wean the people to "your" side and make them work for you.

5 years from now it would be Ukrainian vs Ukrainian , Russia will do what America is doing now.

[srai]

Russian Defense Minister Shoigu is out. Apparently he had been in that position for almost 15 years.

FSB head has also been replaced.

[srai]

To take a city the size of Kharkiv, it is estimated Russia will need at least 300,000 troops.

[pravula]

Btw, in a general vein, I don't understand the obsession to take cities/towns - Bakhmut or Avdeevka and now Kharkiv (other than the PR part). Fighting street by street, taking up buildings, steel plants etc is such a big waste of time. And worse is when the forces send tanks into cities. I thought that they learnt the lesson in Stalingrad.

A city is a parasite completely dependent upon external entities for food, power and fuel (and maybe water too). Just outflank the city and threaten to encircle it - the city will empty itself. And if it isn't empty, it'll starve itself in a few months, and it'll be militarily irrelevant long before.

Then you will end up with hostiles in your rear.

[Deans]

Btw, in a general vein, I don't understand the obsession to take cities/towns - Bakhmut or Avdeevka and now Kharkiv (other than the PR part). Fighting street by street, taking up buildings, steel plants etc is such a big waste of time. And worse is when the forces send tanks into cities. I thought that they learnt the lesson in Stalingrad.

A city is a parasite completely dependent upon external entities for food, power and fuel (and maybe water too). Just outflank the city and threaten to encircle it - the city will empty itself. And if it isn't empty, it'll starve itself in a few months, and it'll be militarily irrelevant long before.

Its the opposite. Russia's goal is to demilitarize the Ukrainian army - not take territory. Russia is doing that effectively by making Ukraine fight for cities that they place more significance on than Russia does. When Ukraine concentrates a large force to defend a town and exhausts its reserves, it makes killing them easier, improves the kill ratio and makes future operations (in more open and less defended parts of Ukraine) easier.
For e.g. in Kharkiv - I don't believe Russia has any intention of taking it. But Ukraine cannot not (pardon the pun) deploy a large force to defend it.
There are enough Pro Russian people in Kharkov to make defending it very difficult (they will tip off the Russian who will send drones into buildings
housing the enemy).

In the case of Bakmut and Avdeevka, these were part of the Ukrainian defensive line in the Donbass built since 2014. They had to be taken at some
point, though Ukraine continued to defend them long after it was clear the city could not be defended. Bakhmut was an exchange of Russian convicts (Wagner) for the best brigades of the Ukraine army, with Russia having the additional bonus of capturing the city.

[Deans]

Btw, in a general vein, I don't understand the obsession to take cities/towns - Bakhmut or Avdeevka and now Kharkiv (other than the PR part). Fighting street by street, taking up buildings, steel plants etc is such a big waste of time. And worse is when the forces send tanks into cities. I thought that they learnt the lesson in Stalingrad.

What Russia learnt in WW2 is that there is no point breaking your army trying to defend a city (Kiev, Odessa, Kharkov) unless the loss of the city will
mean the loss of the war (Leningrad, Moscow and Stalingrad).

[Pratyush]

I think that the Russians are taking the cities because of the importance of those cities as logistics nodes.

Not because of any ego related reasons.

A look at the detailed road and rail maps with terrain features will make it clear.

The Ukrainians also understand the importance of those cities. Hence the stubborn resistance.

[Manish_P]

I think that the Russians are taking the cities because of the importance of those cities as logistics nodes.
...

+1

Another reason would be power. Cities typically have power generation/distributions plants. Modern militaries require large amounts of power for their equipment.

[Aditya_V]

Built up areas also provide cover and shelter for troops. You can hide movements, equipment in built up areas plus infrastructure for living. In open fields trenches can be more easily spotted.

[YashG]

^^^

Taking a city is like having a fort in an area. You can sustain operations in the surroundings using this as a base. If you knit together several cities (just like forts) you can sustain operations in a much larger region.

Placing a seige to a city (or fort) only breaks one node of defensive grid. Seige is costly and you have to do it for successive cities. Once you break up the cities connecting each other - you also make logistics or load balancing between each other that much more difficult.

That is why severing chasiv yar and pokrovsk from each other will degrade ukn capabilities. One brigade now cannot fludically be deployed elswhere. Longer movements increase chance of detection. Same with stockpiles. Now you will have to maintain larger stockpile in each direction since you cant balance out. Larger stockpiles again means more risk.

[Deans]

^^^

Taking a city is like having a fort in an area. You can sustain operations in the surroundings using this as a base. If you knit together several cities (just like forts) you can sustain operations in a much larger region.

That is what Ukraine has done. The North-South Donbass line (Siversk- Bakhmut- Toretsk- Niu York- Avdiivka- Pervomaisky-Marinka-Kostyantykinva-Vuledar-Pavlivka) is a an almost continuous built up area, fortified since 2015 and designed to bleed the Russians. This line has now been broken
or bypassed. The second line parallel to it, has also been broken at one point.

[YashG]

^^^
Russians have broken the defensive line and also caused manpower attrition, which means russians are making progress. But all of this still does not amount to collapse of Ukrainian lines. Ukns are able to stabilise somewhat secondary or tertiary lines.

What will be the conditions for collapse ? further dissolution of fortifications, manpower attrition or baffield innovations that will allow russians movement that is not wrecked by FPV drones ?

I can imagine it will be all of these three but which factor will count for most ?

[Sharads]

Mass production of drones( preferably AI), FABs, expendable light unmanned tanks and mine-clearing equipment, anti-drone and EW systems might change the pace of war.

But most importantly the underground domain is the key that picks the lock. Fast tunnel boring machines, like Prufrock, could be use to bypass the fortifications and reach Dneiper and beyond. Mastery over the underground domain would negate the need to enter the large cities instead the smaller villages around the city could be use to encircle and take over.

Russians(and Indians) should also develop completely composite stealth light-weight mass-produced unmanned fighter drone with one tonne air-to-surface FAB or anti-radiation payload.

[srai]

One very surprising revelation is that Russians don’t seem to have hardened aircraft shelters on their airbases!


https://www.rferl.org/amp/crimea-russia ... 82540.html

… many more photos

[Rakesh]

One very surprising revelation is that Russians don’t seem to have hardened aircraft shelters on their airbases!
https://www.rferl.org/amp/crimea-russia ... 82540.html

… many more photos

The exact same thing the US Congress has been warning the Sec of the Air Force and the Sec of the Navy about.

viewtopic.php?t=7962

[Deans]

One very surprising revelation is that Russians don’t seem to have hardened aircraft shelters on their airbases!

… many more photos

There was a mass ATACAM raid on an airbase in Crimea. It resulted in the loss of a S-400 radar and launchers, (the 2nd one destroyed in a ATACAM/Storm shadow raid) and 4-5 aircraft incl. 1-2 SU-27's, 1 Mig29 and 2 mig31s.
Russian analysts are calling it an unpardonable that the aircraft were not in concrete shelters, which the local commander had apparently flagged the need over a year ago. That said:

Many of the aircraft on the base had been moved to bases further away. The SU-27's were probably damaged airframes, kept in a part of the
airfield meant for those aircraft. The Mig 29 was older and meant for local CAP work. The MiG 31s are literally irreplaceable as they are no
longer produced. Most of the ATACAMs were shot down.

[Tanaji]

Zelensky is now saying that for the first time in 2 years Ukraine has enough artillery shells. Looks like the Nato manufacturing capability has finally stepped up.

[srai]

^^^
Typical production ecosystem lead times of 12-36 months have come to pass. NATO now should be able to produce quantities they have promised.

AFAIK, there are two artillery 155mm ammo initiatives:

1. NATO -> 1 million rounds production
2. Czech Plan -> 1.5 million rounds purchase worldwide

[srai]

As Russia Advances, NATO Considers Sending Trainers Into Ukraine

NATO allies are inching closer to sending troops into Ukraine to train Ukrainian forces, a move that would be another blurring of a previous red line and could draw the United States and Europe more directly into the war.

Ukraine’s manpower shortage has reached a critical point, and its position on the battlefield in recent weeks has seriously worsened as Russia has accelerated its advances to take advantage of delays in shipments of American weapons. As a result, Ukrainian officials have asked their American and NATO counterparts to help train 150,000 new recruits closer to the front line for faster deployment.
…
But in February, President Emmanuel Macron of France said that “nothing should be ruled out” when it comes to sending Western troops to Ukraine. Mr. Macron has doubled down on his comment since, including after senior American diplomats asked him to stop.

The government of Estonia has not ruled out the possibility of sending troops to western Ukraine to take over rear roles that could free Ukrainian troops to go to the front, Estonia’s national security adviser said this week.

Lithuania’s foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, backed Mr. Macron’s stance in an interview with the The Guardian last week. “Our troops have been training Ukrainians in Ukraine before the war,” he said, adding, “So returning to this tradition might be quite doable.”
…
Moving the training into Ukraine, military officials acknowledge, would allow American trainers to more quickly gather information about the innovations occurring on the Ukrainian front lines, potentially allowing them to adapt their training.
…
“Remember, when Russia first invaded Crimea in 2014, we sent increased troop numbers into Ukraine to train Ukrainian forces in western Ukraine, and we kept rotating them in all the way to 2022, when we got spooked and withdrew them,” said Evelyn Farkas, the former top Pentagon official for Ukraine during the Obama administration. “It shouldn’t surprise anyone now, when manpower is in short supply at the Ukrainian front, that NATO members and the alliance leadership consider how to help again from the rear.”

Other NATO allies, including Britain, Germany and France, are working to base defense contractors in Ukraine to help build and repair weapons systems closer to the combat zone — what military officials have described as a “fix it forward” approach. Current and former U.S. defense officials said the White House is now reviewing its ban on allowing American defense contractors in Ukraine, although a small number have already been allowed in, under State Department authorities, to work on specific weapons systems like Patriot air defenses.
…

[pravula]

This is slow walking into WW-III. Didn't US-Vietnam start the same way? We are potentially looking at a 20+ year engagement.

[Pratyush]

It will be over, if Donald Trump is elected in November.

Or,

The Germans get a real politition who understands exactly where German interests are.

[srai]

^^^
Typical production ecosystem lead times of 12-36 months have come to pass. NATO now should be able to produce quantities they have promised.

AFAIK, there are two artillery 155mm ammo initiatives:

1. NATO -> 1 million rounds production
2. Czech Plan -> 1.5 million rounds purchase worldwide

There is actually a third one US for 1 million rounds in the $60 billion package.

So update on previous would be

1. US -> 1 million 155mm rounds
2. EU NATO -> 1 million 155mm rounds production
3. Czech Plan -> 1.5 million rounds purchase worldwide for 152mm and 155mm

[srai]

This is slow walking into WW-III. Didn't US-Vietnam start the same way? We are potentially looking at a 20+ year engagement.

For the US, war is a money making business …

https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much- ... -invasion/

…
Will Ukraine have to pay the US back?

A substantial portion of military aid sent to Ukraine will have to be repaid, though the US has yet to establish a definitive timeline.

In May 2022, President Biden signed the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act, authorizing the US military to provide Ukraine and other Eastern European countries with equipment. The law defers repayments from Ukraine indefinitely, meaning that while the government is not required to pay back these loans now, they will have to somewhere down the line — with interest.

This is similar to the Lend-Lease Act between the US and the United Kingdom, Soviet Union, France, China, and other Allied nations during World War II, in which payments for military equipment were suspended during the conflict.[2]

…

I guess it’s all the same for all parties involved. Longer the better for MICs.

[srai]

Next evolution of drones … autonomous hives

Hives For U.S. Drone Swarms Ready To Deploy This Year

…
technology for the military to operate mixed swarms of small drones with minimal human involvement. They are integrating battlefield drones with a system known as a Hive which can launch, recover and recharge drones automatically at the push of a button.
…
working to decouple the drone launch and recovery process from human labor and dramatically scale up the number of drones that can be employed. Their Hive features robotic automation hardware and intelligence software to drone fleet enable operation.
…
Both types of Hive have autonomous control systems to launch and fly drones back and land them precisely on a launch pad with the help of an upward-facing stereoscopic camera system. A relief drone is automatically launched as soon as the first starts to run low on battery, and this will already be at work when the original is back inside the Hive's recharging bay.
…
Typically the drones will operate in units of three where one is in the air carrying out surveillance while the other two are recharging or going to/coming from the operational area. A Hive Expedition with 12 drones can maintain 4 in the air on a permanent, 24/7 basis, patrolling a specific area or maintaining watch over a target. The Hive also responds automatically to problems with any given drone to maintain the required number in the air.

Sentien even have a multi-Hive concept which involves drones migrating outwards through a network of Hives to replace lost of malfunctioning drones.

Both types of Hive allow a single operator to control the entire fleet via a simple tablet interface, and they remove the need for any physical drone handling. According to Sentien, an operator can drive a Hive to a location and have a pop-up security system running in five minutes.
…
Mixed Swarms

The Hive can handle a mixed team of different drones for different purposes. Experience from Ukraine shows the effectiveness of hunter-killer teams in which larger drones are deployed for long-range reconnaissance with smaller quadcopters for getting a close look, with drop drones armed with grenades and FPV kamikazes for attack. The Hive approach allows all of these to work together in concern from a single mobile vehicle. Future developments are likely to see other specialized types in the mix, including electronic warfare, interceptors and fighters as well as decoys and defence-suppression drones.

Currently small drone operations generally involve hand launch, which comes with risks and is labor intensive. In Ukraine, it typically takes a team two to operate a drone, one doing the piloting and the other the preparation, recovery and battery changes. A system like Hive enables a small unit to keep a large number of drones in the air; being mounted on a vehicle also means that the swarm can be used for convoy protection or other mobile roles. The system can also handle autonomous drones which do not transmit data in flight but download it once they return to the Hive, so it can work even in situations of total jamming.

Ukraine is planning to build two million drones this year, but these are still operating as individuals. More than ten thousand drone operators keep thousands of drones in the air on a continuous basis, maintaining a constant watch over the entire front line. New technology will enable the same mission to be carried out with fewer troops and less risk.
..

[srai]

Oleksandr Usyk (Ukraine)
Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion


https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/commen ... ted_tyson/

These people are fighters, not going to go down easily …

[Pratyush]

A video from the armours bench. Describing a 12 gauge shotgun adaptor for the Russian standard under barrel granade launcher. The video suggests that it's able to kill drones at upto 30 meters.

https://youtu.be/b_JEBj1GknA?si=ChDqr2Ll1RdFsafv

[Manish_P]

Oleksandr Usyk (Ukraine)
Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion

...

These people are fighters, not going to go down easily …

Check out who has been the mayor of Kyiv for the past few years....

And his brother too...

[srai]

Ukraine’s MIC expanding to $20 billion capacity but the government only has $6 billion in funds for 2024.



They are going to come out as one of the top defense exporters.

[ashthor]

Ukraine’s MIC expanding to $20 billion capacity but the government only has $6 billion in funds for 2024.

They are going to come out as one of the top defense exporters.

Also the top super power

[sanman]

Ukraine’s MIC expanding to $20 billion capacity but the government only has $6 billion in funds for 2024.
They are going to come out as one of the top defense exporters.

Sounds like some new factories are going to get bombed. Infrastructure targets are far easier for Russians to hit.

[YashG]

https://x.com/NovichokRossiya/status/17 ... 7142664203

This twitter post is quoting the 79th Brigade of Ukn having lost 35 (KIA 15, WIA 20) soldiers on one front in one day.
There are around a 100 brigades from ukn fighting on frontline.

Since its an alarming message alluded to sending troops to kharkiv, so it is fair to assume WIA+KIA doubled, therefore the alarming post. So business as usual this number per day would be 17 (KIA 7, WIA 10)
- and some losses are recoverable. Say 50% are recoverable, gives KIA 7, WIA unrecoverable 5
and until sometime back (NOT now) all brigades were are not facing enemy; say 80% were

= 80 x 12 or 960 irrecoverable losses
----

This augurs well with other estimates that Ukn was losing ~ 1000 unrecoverable losses / day atleast sometime back that @deans also arrived. @deans increased his estimation which is next part.
-----
But very recently, almost all of the Ukn brigades were on frontline; Nothing was held back..in that case 12 x 100 would mean 1200 losses / day
-----
now with Kharkiv offense, artillery imbalance...this has probably become > 1200 and could be upto 2500 ( 20-25 x 100 = 2000 - 2500).

So 1200 - 2500 losses / day since not all brigades may face a day like reported above.
-----

[srai]

^^^
What is amusing is that both sides are coming up with similar daily casualties figures of the opponent!

Yet both sides continue to fight on

[YashG]

If both Russia and Ukn lose 1K soldiers a day - Ukn will run out of soldiers first. That explains why russia is fighting, they can win.

Why Ukn is fighting ?

Also much before they run out - depletion of force will lead to a total collapse. I dont know when that may happen. rn Ukns are defending well. They are losing but slowly - slow enough that at this rate Russia will take years to reach Kiev. ofcourse collapse is first slow, then sudden. I dont know when that will happen.

[sanman]

If both Russia and Ukn lose 1K soldiers a day - Ukn will run out of soldiers first. That explains why russia is fighting, they can win.

Why Ukn is fighting ?

Ukrainians have been turned into cannon-fodder for Washington, through its flunky Zelensky.
Just like Afghans were turned into cannon-fodder.

Also much before they run out - depletion of force will lead to a total collapse. I dont know when that may happen. rn Ukns are defending well. They are losing but slowly - slow enough that at this rate Russia will take years to reach Kiev. ofcourse collapse is first slow, then sudden. I dont know when that will happen.

The Ukrainians are very short of manpower. Meanwhile, the powerful new Russian glide-bombs can smash their way through Ukrainian lines.
Russian war manufacturing continues to ramp up. Shoigu was replaced with someone more attuned to supply & logistics.

Zelensky no longer even has any legitimacy in the eyes of his own people, now that his electoral mandate has expired, and after he dismissed the native Ukrainian general Zaluzhny.

[YashG]

^^^

All the things you said are correct. But Ukn defence is not collapsing. Not yet. It is failing to defend but not collapsing. Perhaps answer is russian still have 1.5:1 edge in numbers. Once they reach a 2:1 edge, we could see faster collapse. Russians can achieve 2:1 or 3:1 - its a mathematical answer involving rate of losses in russia, Ukn, recruitments and artillery edge.

[sanman]

Victoria Nuland is back -- she's now calling on Washington to approve military strikes against Russian military bases inside of Russia itself.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/KzLPGGHcsEo

https://twitter.com/amuse/status/1792505525545939318


It's hard to know who is the stupidest person in the news these days. Nuland is a mentalcase.
(And as I'm again at pains to mention - Nuland and her fellow NeoCons overlap with the Israel lobby)

[williams]

This is what happens when you start a war with Khan's backing. You will just be a pawn for Khan's interests and eccentricities.

[williams]

Victoria Nuland is back -- she's now calling on Washington to approve military strikes against Russian military bases inside of Russia itself.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/KzLPGGHcsEo

https://twitter.com/amuse/status/1792505525545939318


It's hard to know who is the stupidest person in the news these days. Nuland is a mentalcase.
(And as I'm again at pains to mention - Nuland and her fellow NeoCons overlap with the Israel lobby)

She is back in the media, but not in the state dept. However people in the state department thinks the same way.

[srai]

Sanman,
Please discuss your Nuland in the other geopolitical thread.