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The brouhaha is less about India and more about "log kya kahenge" among the P5. I will explain.satyarthi wrote:Why do people expect that there will be a great brouhaha if India tests a thermonuke now?
Ever since 1992, the P5 have been trying to ensure that nobody else in the world tests nuclear bombs and only they, the P5 would retain nukes as long as they liked with the indefinite stated aim of denuclearizing at some distant date in the future.
Test or no test, India is still out of the exclusive club in terms of ability to obtain and trade in material and technology related to nukes - even for civilian use. So India is still under sanctions and is still a pariah and still unable to freely get what it wants and India, on its part has agreed to "voluntarily" toe the P5 line and "be a good boy" and not export technology or material related to nukes.
The meaning of that is that apart from testing and making nuclear bombs, India is meeting every other demand made by the P5, but yet India remains in the doldrums with regard to many materials and widely traded technologies- and has not been fully pulled out of its pariah status despite its pointed good behavior.
The question of exactly why India chooses to behave so well while Pakistan and Korea have behaved like international b*ench*ds is anybody's guess. I suspect it is because the Indian establishment hopes to squirm its way into the status that the exclusive P5 club have, in which they can not only make and maintain weapons, but they can freely trade, import and export and place sanctions and screw others. But the P5 have not yet given in to India's game. India remains a nuclear pariah just like Korea and Pakistan, and the signals are clear: The nuclear club s ONLY for the existing P5. India's status WILL NOT be changed whether it tests again or does not test again.
So why doesn't India test? My guesses are as follows:
1) If India tests again, India's slim chances of being lifted out of nuclear pariah status will be gone for decades, if not forever. The last time there were sanctions (eg in 1998) India was denied simple things like radiation safety monitors for medical personnel, apart from all sorts of items related to aerospace and other areas that could be accused of having "dual use"
2) If India tests again - it's status as "mature nuclear weapon power" will instantly be questioned by the P5 who will say "hey - you really are a have-not" and therefore you must remain a have not.
3) if India tests again, it will serve as a licence for other nascent nuclear states to start testing again. Despite India's seeming "fight against nuclear apartheid" India itself wants to maintain a double standard in which India should be included among the P5 but CTBT etc should be applied to all nations after that. In other words even if India is given the same status as P5 India has no intention of cheering and welcoming new members such as Pakistan, Iran. North Korea etc.
I believe India is showing a double standard here which will come a cropper earlier if it tests and might work if it does not test.
I just wonder if India has the capacity to fight the P5 and make a parallel nuclear club in which India shares material and technology with non P5 nations in a new "Nuclear non aligned club". But India does not appear to have the technological strength or the moral courage to do that. In any case Indians were themselves as derisive of the "non aligned movement" as anyone els, and I suspect a new nuclear club of nuclear have nots trading technology will be treated with similar contempt by both the P5 and Indians. That means some parties in India will oppose it just because they are opposition parties.
In any case, even if India is able to withstand sanctions most of the have-not nations of the world will have their testimonial squeezed dry by the P5 if they were to oin India is a "neo-non-aligned parallel nuclear club" for trading nuke tech and material.
JMT