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PostPosted: 11 Jan 2009 12:58 
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Good article on saag. Describes the mood of the nation. UPA's inaction will eventually cause a nationalist surge that will give BJP the majority that it needs to clean up this country.

http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers ... r3004.html

POST MUMBAI 9/11: INDIA PARALYZED BY PAKISTAN’S SUPERIORITY IN “BATTLE OF PERCEPTIONS”

By Dr. Subhash Kapila

Introductory Observations

Pondering agonizingly over India’s paralysis in not striking back credibly against Pakistan in response to the Pakistan Army and its ISI-sponsored “war of terror” assault on India’s sovereignty at Mumbai on November 26, 2008, this Author came across a feature in “The Jerusalem Post” written against the back drop of the assaults on Israel’s sovereignty by Hezbollah earlier and Hamas presently and why Israel strikes back forcefully.

The point that caught attention in this feature was that currently, the Israeli Defense Forces in their senior commanders training lays emphasis on how modern warfare is conducted. Israel believes that emphasis today should not be on which side conquers more territory or loses more fighters and fighter aircraft – as was the case in conventional battles such as the 1967 Six War, “but rather on perceptions. In other words, the victor is the side that is perceived to have won”.

Applying this precept in the context of Mumbai 9/11 and India’s paralysis in the post-Mumbai 9/11 phase of over a month, one painfully comes to the conclusion that the root cause of India’s lack of credible responses against the Pakistani military establishment, the ISI and their affiliated Islamic Jihadi terrorist organizations, is that Pakistan established a superiority over India in the “Battle of Perceptions”.

India’s long history of not striking back at major Pakistan-sponsored terrorism incidents from 1992 onwards, India’s misplaced faith that “Friends of Pakistan” would dissuade Pakistan and restrain Pakistan’s war-like provocations against India and Indian political leadership of the day shirking from the will to use power, despite preponderant instruments of power at their command, led to Mumbai 9/11 – a “war of terror” on India when a handful of Pakistan terrorists held India to ransom for three days in sustained gun battles and blasts. In those three days more than 200 lives were lost.

Post-Mumbai 9/11, India’s political leadership fell back in its traditional mould of shirking to use power to safeguard India’s “National Honour” and the unprovoked assault on her sovereignty.

Brave statements were made by India’s political leaders that “all options are on the table” in terms of a riposte to Pakistan. But the one option that India should have exercised in the first few days of Mumbai 9/11, “continues to lie on the table” even after a month of the attacks.

India’s political leaders to strategically chastise Pakistan for its proven involvement and culpability in Mumbai 9/11 attacks moved away from their strident calls on Pakistan to atone for Mumbai 9/11 to a “diplomatic offensive” to present clinching evidence to world capitals. The Indian policy establishment should realize that it is not fighting a “court case” where evidence will count. Does it not occur to the Indian Government that it is dealing in terms of terrorism with a “rogue state” dominated by Pakistan Army on whose agenda, peace with India does not figure. Nor would any guarantees by Pakistan military establishment count that no further terrorist war against India would take place. Are not Pakistan’s broken pledges to the United States to wage war on terrorism, a lesson to be learnt and kept in mind?

India continued to be let down by its political leaders, policy advisors and policy formulation mechanisms in not responding firmly at the outset and thereby further reinforcing Pakistan’s “perceptions” that India can be played around with and will not respond even after a "thousand bleeding cuts"

The Pakistani policy establishment and its more powerful military establishment stood emboldened by their “perceptions” of India’s leadership vulnerabilities to launch Mumbai 9/11 and stand further emboldened by the “perceptions” once again that India would be unable to strike back and continue to seek assistance and support from “Friends of Pakistan”, rather than acting on her own strengths.

Pakistan therefore stands to have won the “Battle of Perceptions” on both counts due to India’s flawed counter-terrorism responses.

This Author’s last paper entitled “India: Policy Establishments Failure on Pakistan Threat Assessment (SAAG Paper No. 2987 dated 19 Dec. 2008 has already brought out in fair detail the flawed threat assessments on President Zardari and General Kiyani, Pakistan Army Chief of India’s political leadership and India’s policy establishment.

This Paper intends to be a study of the following aspects of the “Battle of Perceptions” between India and Pakistan and is discussed under the following heads:

India’s Flawed Perceptions on Pakistan
India’s Misplaced Perceptions of Trust in “Friends of Pakistan” to Restrain Pakistan’s “War of Terror” Against India
Pakistan’s Perceptions of India’s Paralysis to Strike Back, Post -Mumbai 9/11
This Paper is not going to elaborate on what India’s responses should be, which is a separate subject by itself but focus entirely on why India fails to strike back credibly and creates “wrong perceptions” in Pakistan. Only if India had done so in the past and does so now after her “diplomatic offensive” is over, can then India hope that the “appropriate perceptions” have been created in the Pakistani military establishment's mind that India cannot be messed around with.

But before addressing the above aspects, a bit of digression is required to highlight Indian political leader’s propensity to shirk from safeguarding India’s “National Honor” and India’s propensity to rely on the international community to discipline Pakistan’s “War of Terror”.

India’s Political Leaders Propensity to Shirk from Safeguarding India’s National Honour and Propensity to Seek International Support to Discipline Pakistan’s “War of Terror”

India’s political leadership of both the previous Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the present ruling Congress Party have both demonstrated a propensity to shirk from safeguarding India’s National Honour” and a marked propensity to seek international support, more specifically from the United State to discipline Pakistan’s “War of Terror” against India. Both have abdicated their responsibilities and seek to “outsource India’s counter-terrorism” to the international community.

The BJP after armed attacks on India’s Parliament House in December 2002 mobilized the entire Indian Army on Pakistan’s borders and promised an “Aar Pas Ki Larai”, the mother of all battles, to end Pakistan’s terrorism against India. It was a bold move which could have brought decisive results had Indian forces struck in the first few months. The BJP leadership let the strategic advantage fizzle out after a year, under pressure from the United States.

The Congress government in the wake of Mumbai 9/11 gave strong indications that it would indulge in air and missile strikes and should Pakistan enlarge the conflict use India’s conventional might. Once again, history has been repeated and the Congress Government, like the BJP Government buckled under United States pressures for restraint. Once again India’s strategic advantages over Pakistan were foreclosed.

India’s political leaders of all political dispensations need to be reminded of a few home-truths on both these counts from two quotations from the noted British strategist Maj. Gen. Fuller, which this Author incorporated in the last chapter entitled “Prescriptions for India’s National Security” in his book “India’s Defence Policies & Strategic Thought: A Comparative Analysis”. They read as follows. First on “National Honour”:

“There is only one balsam which can make peace worth living – Honour, which is righteousness. There are sublimer ideals than mere peacefulness, and honour is one of these. Peace without honour is degradation and as a noble woman safeguards her honour, and will even sacrifice her life to maintain it in order to keep the family clean, and as a man will give up his life to protect her and her children, so will an upright nation because of its honour, not only protect but sacrifice itself for righteousness cause. All may be lost save honour, for without honour mankind ceases to be human”

and then the thoughts on nations relying on international support to safeguard “National Honour” and this presently applies to India in more ways than one:

“The nation which depends for the security of its honour on some international force (or support from a superpower: my emphasis) has become but a kept woman among nations. There is only one guardian of honour – a virile arm backed by a virile brain. Again a state, which is not prepared to defend its honour by a righteous war, and depends on the benevolence of others to guarantee its existence, when life is threatened, is but a paralytic living in an alm-house; it has scarcely the right to live, for it lacks the might to thrive”

These two messages for all Indian political leaders should be self-explanatory and also denote what Indian public opinion expect from their political leaders, especially when after Mumbai 9/11 Indian nationalism stands aroused.

If India’s political leaders pay heed to these two maxims, they would be able to ensure that the next time around India is subjected to another Pak-initiated terrorist strike, India’s instruments of power stand readied and are used for flick-knife retaliation without the agony of unending debates on Indian TV and media as to what India’s options should be. Nor would there be any requirement to heed advice of “Look before you leap”, India should at all times be ready for a strategic and military leap to chastise its aggressors.

India’s Flawed Perceptions on Pakistan

India’s political leaderships and policy establishment’s flawed perceptions and misplaced readings on the emergence of President Zardari and General Kayani and their impact on Indo-Pak security environment stand discussed in the last Paper of this Author. Timely warnings on these two dignitaries on this account, given months in advance of Mumbai 9/11 stood reflected in this Author’s Papers since mid-2008.

India’s flawed perceptions on Pakistan prevailing in the mindsets of Indian political leaders and policy making establishment are reflected below in brief.

Strategically and militarily, the following misperceptions seem to prevail in India’s policy making circles: (1) Pakistan with its nuclear weapons arsenal is the strategic equal of India (2) In case of Indian military strikes against Pakistan, that country could strike back with nuclear weapons (3) Pakistan has the capability and wherewithal to enlarge a limited war into a general war (4) China could enlarge and intervene in any Indo-Pakistan armed conflict (5) Pakistan can inflict massive damage in retaliation of Indian strikes.

India should welcome Pakistan crossing the nuclear threshold as it would be a suicidal step for the destruction and disintegration of Pakistan. China in the current security environment where Pakistan’s “war of terror” could visit Xinjiang also would not be tempted to go beyond rhetoric in any Indo-Pak armed conflict.

Politically, the Indian policy making mindset is dominated by the following misperceptions (1) Pakistan could develop into a peaceful neighbor with more political patience and understanding from India (2) Pakistan’s politics domination by Islamic fundamentalist elements could fade away (3) Pakistan Army could be brought under firm control of a civilian democratic political government (4) Pakistan’s civil society wants peace with India (5) Pakistan’s civil society could bring about the over throw of Pakistan Army’s political dominance of Pakistan’s governance (6) Track II diplomacy and use of Special Indian Envoys to Pakistan could facilitate peaceful Indo-Pak relations (7) Pakistan is a responsible stake-holder in regional peace and a responsible member of the international community.

To any discerning Indian policy maker it should be evidently clear that all the above perceptions of Indian policy establishment on Pakistan are misplaced and wrong. There are no concrete indications on the ground to suggest otherwise.

It are these strategic, military and more substantially the political misperceptions on Pakistan which have distorted Indian policy-makers formulations on Pakistan and the absence of an Indian credible response to Pakistan’s provocation “war of terror” against India.

India’s political leaders and policy establishment needs to recognize the reality that more than a decade of Track II diplomacy and the flitting of Special Envoys between New Delhi and Islamabad have not brought the two countries to peaceful co-existence. This is for the simple reason that the Pakistan Army calls the shots in Pakistan on its foreign policies and peace with India is not Pakistan Army’s objective.

India’s Misplaced Perceptions of Trust in “Friends of Pakistan” to Restrain Pakistan’s “War of Terror” Against India

Pakistan would like to claim the international community as “Friends of Pakistan” because most of the Western countries, China and the oil-rich Islamic monarchies of the Gulf Region bankroll Pakistan’s sustenance, notwithstanding that the bulk of these finances are diverted to the Pakistan Army and the operation of Pakistan’s “War of Terror” against India and Afghanistan.

In terms of discussion of India’s misplaced trust in “Friends of Pakistan” to restrain Pakistan’s “War of Terror” against India, the discussion in this Paper would focus on the role of the United States, China and Saudi Arabia.

Despite 9/11 when the United States itself was subjected to a combination of Pakistani operated and Saudi-financed terrorism onslaught against mainland USA, the United States has been reluctant to recognize that the Pakistani “War of Terror” against India is also part of the global Islamic Jihad and needs to be firmly dealt with in a concerted manner by the global community by backing strong actions by India against Pakistan, rather than diplomacy.

The United States has the strategic, military, political and economic clout to stop Pakistan’s “War of Terror” against India. But it would not use that clout, because Pakistan colludes in American strategy in the region and India does not.

India’s trust that an evolving US-India Strategic Partnership would make America play a different ball-game in South Asia, vis-à-vis Pakistan, is grossly misplaced, in light of Mumbai 9/11.

The flurry of top US dignitaries visiting New Delhi in the wake of Mumbai 9/11 were not intended to reinforce New Delhi’s resolve to strike back at Pakistan but to pressurize India not to resort to military strikes against Pakistan and exercise restraint.

China enjoys even more stronger strategic, military, political and economic clout over Pakistan. In the wake of Mumbai 9/11 and moreso in the years preceding it, China was in a strong and coercive position to restrain Pakistan’s “War of Terror” against India. It did not do so for reasons best known to every Indian.

In the wake of Mumbai 9/11, China has advocated restraint on both India and Pakistan. However the actual message should have been a stern and salutary message by China to Pakistan, that its “War of Terror” in the region, which may eventually engulf Xinjiang too, should stop. China can be expected to continue to support Pakistan even now in its face-off with India.

Saudi Arabia as far as international terrorism is concerned is along with Pakistan is the “Real Axis of Evil”. Saudi Arabian Islamic charities finance Pakistani terrorist organizations “War of Terror” on both flanks of Pakistan. Pakistan is heavily dependant on Saudi Arabia for free oil supplies, financial aid and political backing. Saudi Arabia more than USA and China could discipline Pakistan in a second if it wishes to.

The visit of Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister last month was meaningless. He hesitated and shirked from condemning Pakistan’s “War of Terror” against India. His visit was meaningless even if India intended that through it to send a message to Islamic Countries.

In any case it should have struck the Indian policy establishment that no Gulf Region Islamic countries have come out with any outright condemnation of Pakistan following 9/11. Further the media in these countries has been spewing vitriolic outbursts that India is now involved in American-Zionist conspiracies to fragment Pakistan and its nuclear arsenal – the only one in the Islamic world. More cynically that Mumbai 9/11 was fabricated by India intelligence agencies as an excuse for the above.

All in all, the stark pointer is that India cannot rely on the international community to curb Pakistan’s “War of Terror”. The “Friends of Pakistan” count on Pakistan to serve their strategic ends and would go to great lengths to protect Pakistan from India’s wrath however well placed.

Pakistan’s Perceptions of India’s Paralysis to Strike Back, Post Mumbai 9/11

In the “Battle of Perceptions” post-Mumbai 9/11 Pakistan seems to have established a superiority over India by correctly perceiving India’s paralysis.

Gleaning through the demonstrated performance and statements of Pakistan’s political and military leaders and the writings of Pakistani columnists in their media, the Pakistani perceptions of India’s paralysis to strike back post-Mumbai 9/11 were read as follows: (1) India failed to strike back against Pakistan in 2002-2003 OP PRAKARM despite an initial advantage of surprise and strength. (2) In the large number of major terrorist attacks in India by Pak-sponsored terrorists or their modules within India there were no retaliatory responses from India (3) India every time took the “softer route” of attempting to enlist international condemnation against Pakistan (4) Pakistan this time too was confident that after the first few days of general condemnation, the international community would lapse back as hithertofore (5) Pakistani columnists harped on India’s military machine not being fully prepared for war due to incomplete inventories and slow inflow of Russian military hardware (6) Pakistan’s military establishment was confident in their perceptions that India would not be able to obtain substantial USA, China, Saudi Arabia backing for Indian retaliatory strikes against Pakistan.(7) India would be held back by fears that any assertive step could lead to internationalizing of the Kashmir issue.

Indian political leader’s propensity to shirk away from using “hard options” to protect India’s “National Honour” and rely more on international condemnation of Pakistan was correctly read by the Pakistani military establishment.

The course of events even after a month post-Mumbai 9/11 seem to bear out Pakistan’s military establishments perceptions of India in terms of retaliatory strikes or other hard actions.

To that extent it can be said that Pakistan has established superiority over India in the “Battle of Perceptions” unless India now decides to change course, in confronting Pakistan’s “War of Terror” against India.

The current "diplomatic offensive" by India and providing dossiers of clinching involvement of Pakistan's official establishment in Mumbai 9/11 will not shame the Pakistani military establishment or prompt it to any positive action to dismantle its terror-networks or extradite the wanted terrorists to India for trial.

At the end of this "diplomatic offensive" Pakistan's military establishment's "Perceptions" of India's soft responses would continue.

India would be left then with only two options, namely to execute military strikes against Pakistan or just accept a "lump-it" situation.

Concluding Observations

The major concluding observations that need to be made are as under:

India cannot endlessly go on buckling to Pakistan Army sponsored and Pakistan based “War of Terror” against India.
The next such “War of Terror” strike against India would perforce pressurize the present Indian Government or the one that succeeds it to go in for the “hard option” of retaliatory military strikes, irrespective of the cost.
USA, China and Saudi Arabia would be well-advised as “Friends of Pakistan” to clamp down on Pakistan Army sponsored terrorist organization in Pakistan and their disruptive activities as any future conflict on this count could also jeopardize their respective national security interests in this region.
Pakistan itself needs to realize that when its traditional intransigence against India pushes India to the wall, it could result in another fragmentation of Pakistan as in 1971.
India needs to recognize that “diplomatic offensives” do not tame strategic delinquencies of military-dominated nations like Pakistan. Hard options are called for:
Finally, India’s political leaders need to recognize that threats to Indian “National Honour”, sovereignty and security have to met squarely and eliminated by India and India alone. India's counter-terrorism operations cannot be "out-sourced" to others.


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PostPosted: 11 Jan 2009 13:02 
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fortunately, my state of karnataka will not be voting for upa this time. hopefully, the rest of the country doesnt follow delhi example

samuel.chandra wrote:
Time to open up the purse strings and go vote. UPA should be taught a lesson.

mnag wrote:
with more days passing since 26/11 mumbai incident and indian govt doing nothing except for some speeches by pranab/manmohan once in a while, it looks like no action will happen until the next deadly terrorist incident. india has condemned israel's actions and has made it clear that it is against any military action or surgical strikes. india is hoping that us will miraculously help us out of this situation and hoping that us will fight our war on terror which may not materialise in the near future.

since we also have an election coming up, my guess is that there will be a troop buildup along borders now or prior to elections and there will be some speeches by the netas to convince the electorate that congress/upa is taking action. i think this will be the only indian response to mumbai.

i am not even sure that kasab will get death penalty which would be executed


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PostPosted: 11 Jan 2009 13:29 
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Me think we should put economic sanctions on Bakistan. Any company doing business in India not allowed to do anything with Bakistan ( as in case of US-CUBA)..........and let them have Chinese made Pig-fat fried chips and Somalian tea.


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PostPosted: 11 Jan 2009 13:35 
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Location: Ya kundendu tushar haar dhavala ..
Lets for time being buy into the GOI propaganda that surgical strikes are not gonna help and that we need to up the diplomatic ante against TSP (whatever that means , presently it looks as if GOI is more concerned about GAZA :roll: ).

Anyways my simple question is what stops us from holding the whole TSP at ransom by stopping the water from the five rivers flowing into TSP ? Is it too much to expect from the Maha mandbuddhi singh and his ilk ? :evil:

{I have said this before, and I am saying this again. It is against BRF policy to come up with, and use insulting names for people holding top offices in Bharat. The next time an official warning will follow. I will give you a chance to edit your own post. I am leaving it out, bolded, so that other "jingoes" may see it as well. thanks, Archan.}

PS: you already have two warnings, a third will lead to your posting rights being postponed.


Last edited by archan on 11 Jan 2009 21:01, edited 2 times in total.
No more calling names to the PM, please.


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PostPosted: 11 Jan 2009 13:47 
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negi wrote:
Anyways my simple question is what stops us from holding the whole TSP at ransom by stopping the water from the five rivers flowing into TSP ? Is it too much to expect from the Maha mandbuddhi singh and his ilk ? :evil:


It's not possible if we don't want floods on our side. What is possible is an even worse scenario for TSP: hold water for certain time then let it go and repeat, i.e short duration cycles of flood and drought in TSP.


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PostPosted: 11 Jan 2009 13:52 
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Of course it can be controlled during this time of the year and even during the summer season there is no danger of floods.


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PostPosted: 11 Jan 2009 17:28 
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Which time of the year is better to initiate a war with Pak. Looking at history winter seems more preferable to us ....


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PostPosted: 11 Jan 2009 22:30 
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samuel.chandra wrote:
Good article on saag. Describes the mood of the nation. UPA's inaction will eventually cause a nationalist surge that will give BJP the majority that it needs to clean up this country.

http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers ... r3004.html

POST MUMBAI 9/11: INDIA PARALYZED BY PAKISTAN’S SUPERIORITY IN “BATTLE OF PERCEPTIONS”

By Dr. Subhash Kapila

An excellent analysis by Dr. Subhash Kapila. BRFites have seen this pattern emerge all the way since Kargil.

Hoping to be wrong, but I don't see much light at the end of the political tunnel...everyone is gung ho when they are the opposition party, but its business as usual regardless of which "coalition" comes to power.


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PostPosted: 11 Jan 2009 22:59 
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Div wrote:
samuel.chandra wrote:
Good article on saag. Describes the mood of the nation. UPA's inaction will eventually cause a nationalist surge that will give BJP the majority that it needs to clean up this country.

http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers ... r3004.html

POST MUMBAI 9/11: INDIA PARALYZED BY PAKISTAN’S SUPERIORITY IN “BATTLE OF PERCEPTIONS”

By Dr. Subhash Kapila

An excellent analysis by Dr. Subhash Kapila. BRFites have seen this pattern emerge all the way since Kargil.

Hoping to be wrong, but I don't see much light at the end of the political tunnel...everyone is gung ho when they are the opposition party, but its business as usual regardless of which "coalition" comes to power.


His analysis just proves what we know. Either way: conducting a regular war or a perceived war, current Indian leaders are inept.

India seems to have plenty of thinkers, but very few that can lead (as tough a job as it is).


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 00:45 
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I have been saying what subhash ji and J post report says since 1999
Are bahi ek jhapad keechke tho maro, tha ki dushman samjhe ki upon ko bhi g mai dham hai"

magar upon mumble ya aar paarb bhashan may hi dubey :((

Andha raja Andha parja
sathe there bahajan...
Zamana dath threki

"song from trere mere sapne" how appropriate :rotfl:


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 01:54 
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In the Great Game of 21st Century, instead of fielding its own team either side, India has taken the role of an Umpire.
Umpires are usually bad mouthed by both the teams and that is what is happening right now.

It's time for India to field it's own team.

Quote:
The United States has the strategic, military, political and economic clout to stop Pakistan’s “War of Terror” against India. But it would not use that clout, because Pakistan colludes in American strategy in the region and India does not.


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 02:34 
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Image

imho, we should not release this movie! ban it, till a GoI action is seen on Pakistan.


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 03:51 
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SaiK wrote:
Image

imho, we should not release this movie! ban it, till a GoI action is seen on Pakistan.


So it looks like Ramu will make a movie about this incident and explains his visit with vilasrao deshmukh to the site...


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 04:00 
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A pot-bellied Bollywood Herrow instead of the TFTA terrorist? :rotfl:


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 05:20 
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Too crafty a neighbour

Quote:
Brahma Chellaney

Mumbai: The unparalleled November 26 to 29 Mumbai terrorist assaults were seen as India's 9/11. They were expected to be a tipping point in India's forbearance with Pakistan-fomented terrorism.


However, it is now clear that nothing will change fundamentally. Pakistan's military-nurtured terror complex will remain intact, so also the cosy ties between the Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence and terrorist groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba. The pusillanimity of the Indian leadership has been shown to be too entrenched to be possibly uprooted.

All this means that there will be more Pakistani terrorist attacks in India at phased intervals, with history repeating itself. Furthermore, a now-familiar Indian cycle of empty rhetoric -- ritual condemnation of each attack and a hackneyed promise to defeat terror while allowing communal, electoral and vote-bank considerations to influence counter-terrorism action -- will inexorably eat into the vitals of India's internal security.

As if to make up for its faintheartedness, the Indian government has engaged in an almost-daily war of words with Pakistan -- a war of words any victim can never win against an attacker. Pakistan, despite its internal disarray and eroding credibility, indeed has played its cards well to outmanoeuvre India. It has also demonstrated that its public-relations machine remain more robust than India's.

Pakistan demanded evidence and when India, playing into its hands, compiled and handed over a dossier of detailed evidence, Islamabad heaped ridicule on that data, saying it was "little more than propaganda".

Now Islamabad intends to compile its own dossier on India's alleged involvement in the Baluchi insurrection, although it knows that RAW's covert wing was disbanded long ago by then prime minister IK Gujral and that New Delhi has no capability to help the Baluchis regain their stolen independence.

In fact, India kept its demands so modest as to weaken calls for Pakistan to irreversibly and verifiably tear apart its state-reared terror complex. New Delhi basically asked Islamabad to bring the Pakistan-based masterminds of the attacks to justice. Although it said it would prefer that the masterminds were extradited and "brought to Indian justice," it signalled it would be satisfied if they were put on trial in Pakistan. But even if, at New Delhi's insistence, Pakistan had agreed to extradite Zarrar Shah and Zaki ur-Rehman Lakhvi to India, it would have lost nothing other than a little pride. After all, the Lashkar and Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorist infrastructure, including sustenance from the ISI, would have remained in place.

In other words, New Delhi's demands were such that Islamabad could easily have delivered on them. Yet, with New Delhi doing little more than making public statements, Pakistan refused to yield.

All that Pakistan has done is to arrest Lakhvi and Shah, besides -- in response to UN Security Council action -- detaining the Lashkar chief, Hafiz Sayeed, and outlawing the Lashkar's reincarnation, the Jamaat-ud-DawaA. But the Lashkar/Jamaat-ud-DawaA is in the process of being reborn under a new name, even as the terrorist body's Muridke headquarters already remains in business.

With the bodies of the nine other attackers still lying unclaimed in Mumbai, Islamabad took more than six weeks to grudgingly admit a fact that had become incontestable -- that the sole captured terrorist is a Pakistani. Yet that admission cost the Pakistani national security adviser his job.

New Delhi exerted no pressure to make Islamabad give in to its fairly small demands. An array of discreet options was available to India, including diplomatic, economic and political. Between the two extremes -- empty talk and war -- New Delhi could have invoked measures commonly available to nations to step up political pressure, such as recalling its own high commissioner from Islamabad, suspending the composite dialogue process, disbanding the farcical joint anti-terror measures and invoking trade sanctions.

Yet a feckless leadership did not take the smallest step even as a symbolic expression of India's outrage over Pakistan's role as the staging ground for the Mumbai attacks. Instead it repeatedly tied itself up in knots.

Note the hurried manner in which the external affairs minister first ruled out the military option, only to later say "all options are open". Note also that India accused state actors in Pakistan of involvement -- in the prime minister's words, "some Pakistani official agencies must have supported" the Mumbai attacks -- and then the same day handed a dossier to Islamabad with the naive expectation that the Pakistani state would act against its state actors. India has had weak governments but never a more incompetent and weak-willed national-security team in charge.

India has to defend itself from the forces of terrorism, or else no united, plural, inclusive and democratic India will survive.


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 06:19 
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India needs new leaders. No more think tanks or articles on this topic.


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 06:21 
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IB4TL?


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 06:27 
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NRao wrote:
India needs new leaders. No more think tanks or articles on this topic.

India is wating for real leader for long long time.
Remind me of
Hum intjaar karenge kiyamat tak , hum intajaar karenge .
Khuda kare ke kiyamatho
OOOr leader aayee.
Come summer , just increase the temperature in lSlooland by lighting few nukes amidst them.


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 08:09 
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^^ really liked the "come summer" touch lol


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 08:36 
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45 DAYS AFTER MUMBAI
B.RAMAN

Quote:
Forty-five days after the Mumbai terrorist strike of November 26 to 29,2008, India has failed to convince large sections of the internationalcommunity that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) had orchestrated the terrorist strike in Mumbai by 10 terrorists of theLashkar-e-Toiba (LET). That is my conclusion after interactions with a wide spectrum of foreign counter-terrorism experts----governmental aswell as non-governmental.

2. The experts of the various countries whose nationals died at the hands of the terrorists are convinced on the basis of their own substantial independent technical intelligence that the terrorist attack was carried out by 10 Pakistani nationals belonging to the LET, who came to Mumbai by boat from Karachi for carrying out the strike. They are also convinced on the basis of the voluminous evidence in their archives about the privileged relationship between the ISI and the LET. But they claim not to have seen any conclusive evidence so far to show that the ISI----or at least its present leadership---- had orchestrated the Mumbai terrorist attack. A question, which they pose, which is logical and compelling, is whether the terrorists would have killed nationals of the US, the UK, France, Italy, Germany, Canada and Australia if they had been deputed by the ISI to indulge in the carnage.

3. Some of these experts, who were earlier convinced of the ISI hand behind the attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul in the first week of July, 2008, when Lt.Gen. Nadeem Taj, the present Corps Commander at Gujranwala, was the ISI Director-General, are prepared to allow for the possibility that Lt.Gen. Taj, before he was removed from the ISI on September 30, 2008, allegedly under US pressure by Gen.Pervez Ashfaq Kayani, Pakistan's Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), might have also planned the Mumbai attack by the LET and got its cadres chosen for the attack trained. In this connection, it is significant that Ajmal Amir, the Pakistani in the custody of the Mumbai Police, had reportedly stated during his interrogation that the attack was planned for September 26, but was postponed. These experts point out that Taj was still the DG of the ISI on September 26.

4. The Americans had allegedly got Taj removed because of their conviction that his was the brain behind the Kabul attack and that Taj,who has a reputation of being rabidly anti-Indian and anti-US, had leaked out some information shared by the Americans with him to the Taliban. It was generally presumed till now on the basis of some past reports in sections of the Pakistani media about Taj being related to Gen.(retd) Pervez Musharraf that he must be a Mohajir, but some Western experts claim that he is actually a Punjabi-speaking Kashmiri. If this is so, in its history the ISI had been headed by Punjabi-speaking Kashmiris twice. The earlier Kashmiri DG of the ISI was Lt.Gen.(retd) Javed Nasir, who headed the ISI during Nawaz Sharif's first tenure as the Prime Minister (1990-93). The Mumbai blasts of March,1993,were orchestrated by him. He was removed by Sharif from the ISI under US pressure because of his perceived non-cooperation in the US attempts to buy back the unused Stinger missiles from the Afghan Mujahideen. It was during his tenure that the Bill Clinton Administration had declared Pakistan as a suspected State-sponsor of terrorism. This designation was removed after six months after Sharif had removed from the ISI Nasir and some other officers disliked by the US.

5. While thus some American experts have an open mind on the possibility of the involvement of Taj in the Mumbai carnage, they are prepared to give the benefit of doubt to Lt.Gen.Ahmed Shuja Pasha, who has been the DG of the ISI since September 30,2008. He enjoys a good reputation in the West as a balanced person, who would not indulge in this type of operation, particularly when it is partly directed against Western nationals and Jewish civilians.

6. Every country, whose nationals died during the terrorist attack, has been making a detailed analysis of why its nationals were targeted and killed. For example, in addition to the Israelis and the nationals of the countries mentioned above, the terrorists also killed the nationals of three countries in South-East Asia. One of them was a Chinese woman from Singapore. According to one version that one heard in Singapore, the terrorists forced her to ring up her Foreign Office in Singapore and request it to urge the Government of India not to send the security forces into the hotels. According to the version prevalent in Singapore, when the Singapore Foreign Office refused to intercede in this matter, the terrorists shot her dead. Why did they do so? What is the reason for their apparent anger against Singapore? This is a question, which kept propping up.

7. Apart from the way the attack was planned and executed, the most significant aspect of the attack was the targeting of foreign nationals----particularly the cream of the foreign business community who frequent these hotels. It was because of this that the technical intelligence agencies of the Western countries diverted all their capabilities to cover the conversations between the terrorists and their handlers in Pakistan. It is said that the US moved one of its communication satellites over Mumbai during the 60 hours that the drama lasted in order to cover these conversations.

8. After the drama was over and the National Security Guards (NSGs) had rescued the surviving hostages, the Western countries had all their surviving nationals quietly flown to Europe where they were thoroughly debriefed by special teams from their intelligence agencies. It is said that the French even sent a special plane for evacuating the French and other Western survivors from Mumbai to Paris. Western experts are surprised that neither the Mumbai Police nor the central intelligence agencies showed interest in detaining the surviving foreign hostages in India in order to debrief them thoroughly. If they had done so, the details collected by them would have formed an important part of the dossier prepared by the Ministry of Home Affairs and disseminated to foreign Governments. It is said that such details,which could have been obtained by debriefing the foreign survivors, hardly figure in the dossier.

9. According to foreign experts, the Mumbai Police and the central intelligence agencies were so excited by the capture alive of one of the Pakistani perpetrators that they seem to have devoted all their attention to interrogating him and getting as many details as possible, which could help them to fix Pakistan. They complain that other important aspects which might have helped them in reconstructing the terrorist attack, drawing the right lessons from it and preventing a repetition of similar attacks in future have not received much attention.

10. Pakistan's argument that the Government of India has been trying to divert attention from the colossal failure of its counter-terrorism machinery in Mumbai by focussing on the alleged involvement of the ISI has started having some takers abroad due to the unprofessional manner in which the sequel to the terrorist strike has been handled by the Govt.of India. It is important to hold Pakistan accountable for using terrorism against India through concrete evidence. At the same time, it is equally important to identify the deficiencies in our counter-terrorism machinery and act quickly to remove them. This is not being done.

11. The Mumbai carnage has caused great concern in the Western countries for two reasons. Firstly, the jihadi terrorists in India, who had in the past showed an increasing preference for explosives over hand-held weapons, have gone back to hand-held weapons for attacking private establishments such as hotels, which have anti-explosive checks, but no armed guards to foil an attack with hand-held weapons. Of the 163 fatalities in Mumbai, only five were reportedly caused by explosives. The remaining 158 were caused by hand-held weapons (assault rifles and hand-grenades). This trend of the jihadi terrorists going back to hand-held weapons was first noticed in the Anbar province of Iraq after 1993(??? typo) when Al Qaeda killed a number of Americans and others with hand-held weapons. It was noticed in Pakistan in 2007. When the jihadis failed to kill Benazir Bhutto with an explosive device at Karachi in October,2007, they used a mix of a hand-held weapon and an explosive to successfuly kill her at Rawalpindi on December 27,2007. This trend was noticed in Afghanistan in 2008. While there was reportedly an one-third increase in the use of explosive devices in Afghanistan, there was a simultaneous increase in the use of hand-held weapons for precision killings. This trend has now spread to the Indian territory outside Jammu & Kashmir.

12. Secondly, many Western experts feel that there was an Al Qaeda hand in the planning and execution of the Mumbai attack and that such precision planning and execution would not have been possible without the involvement of some local Muslims. While Indian experts have been able to quantify reasonably well the threat which they would continue to face in J&K, they have not been able to quantify in a similar manner the threat from sections of the Indian Muslim youth outside J&K because of a fear in political circles that such an exercise for quantification might have an adverse effect on the Muslim votes in the forthcoming parliamentary elections..

13. US Congressional committees and professional counter-terrorism organisations in the West are already examining the details of the Mumbai carnage in order to draw lessons for themselves and to prevent a Mumbai-style attack in their country. Surprisingly, such an exercise is hardly to be seen in India. All the debate till now has been on what are the options against Pakistan. There has hardly been any public debate on what are the options against the terrorists in order to prevent another major attack. :-? ( 12-1-09)


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 08:57 
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narayanan wrote:
IB4TL?


Interesting. Do either BC or BR have anything new?

I would hope not, but, I would not be surprised if we could download these two articles and republish them after the next attack.

I mean even the Pakis must be getting bored to death - attack, Indian nonresponse, attack, Indian non.............

but I did learn something new today: in the UK "Paki" means all South Asians. The caliphate is already in existence. What are the Islamists yelling about? The Prince of UK has stated it. Someone please let the LeT and ISI know. No need to draw up new attacks. We are all Pakis (sleeping in airports).


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 09:00 
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BTW, the move from remote bombs to handheld devices is because the US and gang have been able to suppress the "remote" component with a good deal of success.


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 09:46 
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Quote:
8. After the drama was over and the National Security Guards (NSGs) had rescued the surviving hostages, the Western countries had all their surviving nationals quietly flown to Europe where they were thoroughly debriefed by special teams from their intelligence agencies. It is said that the French even sent a special plane for evacuating the French and other Western survivors from Mumbai to Paris. Western experts are surprised that neither the Mumbai Police nor the central intelligence agencies showed interest in detaining the surviving foreign hostages in India in order to debrief them thoroughly. If they had done so, the details collected by them would have formed an important part of the dossier prepared by the Ministry of Home Affairs and disseminated to foreign Governments. It is said that such details,which could have been obtained by debriefing the foreign survivors, hardly figure in the dossier.


This type of incompetence is unbelievable.


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 10:02 
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I dont know how much they would have got out of hysterical foreigners who would anyay compalin of Indian police tactics.

This Monday morning quarterbacking is tantamoun to whining. The retired folks always write dirges of how the current crowd has muffed up one thing or the other but what did they do when they were in service and had better politicial masters?

So lets give it a rest as to what should and could have been done and see what can be done.


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 10:08 
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Would these foreigners be expected to be particularly astute that they should be preferred over or even in addition to the hundreds of Indians involved in these events. Do Indian police agencies have that kind of time to waste?


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 10:13 
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well.. can't they debrief from france or germany or usa? they can present their evidences and protest to their govt. supporting or not supporting their suspicions or any thing that they think we are missing in the dossier that we presented to pakistan.

if they do so, now, it would only help get pakistan fixed rather keep the criminals doing what they keep doing..

is pakistan so important for afghan operations.. why is the world fearing that pakis when become failed state, would cause more terrorism.. imho, the more failed state it becomes, there would be more explicit terror attacks initially, but it would die out since, the world establishes their capabilities pretty soon/and alienate them.

now, it looks like pakistan can nuke any part of the world just by the words- non state acting jihad.. and stinch ally of terrorism with unkill.

this is very silly!.. if the firangs have anything..let them stick it on pakis face.. and not wait till sh!t hits the ceiling fan!


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 10:18 
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sanjaykumar wrote:
Would these foreigners be expected to be particularly astute that they should be preferred over or even in addition to the hundreds of Indians involved in these events. Do Indian police agencies have that kind of time to waste?

No, but they may have been witness to events that were unique to them. Hard to discern that without even trying to find out what they know/saw.

Not sure I would call something like that Monday morning quarterbacking - its a valid question on what seems like a very common sense procedure. Sure the logistics of doing that would have been hard, but that's the job of investigators.


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 11:09 
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Zeenews had a scathing critique of Gilani's besharm taek on the Mumbai terrorist attackers.


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 11:51 
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Lets say GOI decides to play tit for tat after this coercive diplomacy drama not yielding any results and orders Indian military/R&AW to take out Laskhar leadership as well as the Paki Military leadership including Kiyani and the ISI chief. Is the SF/R&AW prepared operationally to pull this off? Is this something that they would be planning and training for?
I don't expect an answer, just wondering aloud.....


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 14:46 
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Almost 50 days after the Mumbai Terror Attacks, we all know there is not going to be any Indian retaliation against the Pakistanis. So it is a frustrating waste of time, day-dreaming on those lines.

So my hopes have come down to some sort of an economic response to Pakistan's call to war against India.

We should take a few pages out of the successful Cold War waged on the Soviet Union - wear down the opponent economically and also create multiple centers of credible power within the opponent's state structure.

Time to just push Pakistan over the economical cliff, somewhere from where it never recovers.

o Create enough opposition to any financial help to Pakistan in US Congress.
o Veto any multilateral aid to Pakistan or at least mold international opinion against it.
o Subsidize and encourage all export industries in competition with Pakistani exports. Don't let Pakistan even earn a dime from its exports.
o Help create an unfriendly investment climate in Pakistan
o Get Pakistan into an arms race with India
o Buy off 10 % Pakistan Army top power echelon and 2% of all lower level officer, useful for denuking.


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 18:24 
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RajeshA, its not about day dreaming. I was thinking along the lines of whether our military is really capable of holding up their end of the bargain if there is political will to retaliate militarily. I guess my frustration is creeping from the political incoherence of GOI to a potential military incompetence when finally the call comes. Whine thread here I come.....
But I agree with your course of action. Pakistan should be kept at the edge of collapse for generations until they change their ways for good and surrender to the will of India.


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 18:58 
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Indian political contraption has not just failed but some parts are in cahoots with the very problem. Else D-Company would not exist for some 15-20 years.

Mumbai police with lathis cannot be expected to deal with such attacks.

On debriefing let us see what happens after the next attack. Bet foreigners will be "debriefed" - including order best food from here and there, etc. The point being police forces in major cities in India NEED to be brought up to "international" standards - for the sake of the country. I suspect Mumbai police know "interrogation" but does NOT know "debriefing". Indian police have to keep up with ISI, nothing less.

Also, the handing over of LeT leaders is, IMHO, a bad plot. It will not dismantle the organizational structure IN Pakistan, which is what we need. The US will oppose any eco sanctions from India (in specific). Any action has to be swift - before the rest of the nations can react (cold start).


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 20:21 
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Comme on guys

If we had debriefed these "traumatised" survivors the foreign media would have cried "murder".


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 20:52 
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Indian police did debriefed some of them if not all, due to the situtaion at hand. Pls check news items came at that time.

B.Raman was lamenting the notion that if those evidence would have included into the dossier it would shame the Pakistan even more and created even more perfect picture to frame them. Its upto present Gov. what it wants to do.


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 21:41 
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India ready to break with Pakistan over lack of help with Mumbai inquiry

From Times Online
January 12, 2009
India ready to break with Pakistan over lack of help with Mumbai inquiry
Smoke rises from the Taj Hotel in Mumbai

(Peter Keep/Reuters)

Smoke rises from the Taj Palace Hotel in Mumbai, where Islamist gunmen killed more than 170 people during a three-day rampage
David Byers, in Delhi

India plans to break off business, transport and tourist links with Pakistan and isolate it from the rest of the world if it fails to help to investigate the Mumbai terrorist attacks, the country's Home Minister told The Times today.

Speaking in an interview that will raise the temperature further between the two countries, Palaniappan Chidambaram accused Pakistan of doing nothing to assist India bring to justice the perpetrators of the attacks on the country's financial capital, which killed 165 people between November 26 and 29.

Asked what Pakistan was doing to help with the investigation, in which India handed over a dossier of evidence to its neighbour last week, Mr Chidambaram said: "Zero. What have they provided? Nothing."

The minister — who will brief David Miliband on the investigation's progress when the British Foreign Secretary arrives in Delhi tomorrow — gave an indication of action that would be taken if Pakistan continued to refuse to investigate the attacks, blamed by India on Islamic militants with links to the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI).

"There are many, many links between India and Pakistan, and if Pakistan does not co-operate and does not help to bring the perpetrators to heel, those ties will become weaker and weaker and one day snap," he said.

"Why would we entertain Pakistani business people? Why would we entertain tourists in India? Why would we send tourists there?" Mr Chidambaram refused to discuss when such measures might be introduced, but said: "We need co-operation soon."

Since the attacks in November, India has become infuriated with Pakistan’s apparent failure to take more aggressive action against the Pakistan-based militant outfit Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), which Indian, American and British officials say was behind the attacks. In the days after the Mumbai attacks, Pakistan captured two of the suspected planners, Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi and Zarar Shah, in a crackdown against the LeT in Pakistani-controlled Kashmir, but India says it mhas done little since then.

Pakistan has also denied claims by Manmohan Singh, the Indian Prime Minister, that the ISI was involved. India also says that it has failed to respond to a 100-page dossier, presented to it last week, with transcripts of intercepted calls between the gunmen and their handlers in Pakistan during their attacks. The Pakistani National Security Chief, Mahmoud Ali Durrani, was dismissed last week only hours after confirming that the lone surviving gunman was Pakistani.

Yousaf Raza Gilani, the Pakistani Prime Minister, further infuriated the Indian Government by carrying out interviews saying that the attacks were related to the disputed territory of Kashmir, comparing Pakistanis living there to the Palestinians in Gaza.

“Gilani is living in a world of his own if he brings Kashmir into this,” a senior Indian government source told The Times. “The simple fact is that Pakistan is a failing, but not yet a failed, state. That is what he needs to address.”

During his three-day visit to India, Mr Miliband will meet Mr Chidambaram and Pranab Mukherjee, the External Affairs Minister – about extremism. to discuss terrorism and climate change. He will also speak at theTaj Mahal and Oberoi Hotels inm Mumbai, both of which were among the buildings attacked

Mr Miliband's visit comes after Gordon Brown visited Delhi last month to express his condolences and solidarity after the attacks.


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 21:47 
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a massive earth quake in pakistan will make our babooze to claim that its a natural repsonse to terrorism after mumbai.. thanx, i made it.. ib4tl.


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 22:02 
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kasthuri wrote:
"Why would we entertain Pakistani business people? Why would we entertain tourists in India? Why would we send tourists there?" Mr Chidambaram refused to discuss when such measures might be introduced, but said: "We need co-operation soon."

wow. act, or we're going to stop issuing tourist visas.

wtf? worst retaliatory threat ever delivered. :roll:


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 22:17 
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India's response to Pakistan is zero, nada, zilch. We are a nation of Gandhi, Nanak and Buddha. We should be ready to offer another cheek as a response to this Jhapad.


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 22:19 
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SBajwa wrote:
India's response to Pakistan is zero, nada, zilch. We are a nation of Gandhi, Nanak and Buddha. We should be ready to offer another cheek as a response to this Jhapad.


Make that bumcheek onlee....

Perhaps things are mopving behind the scenes, hard 2 know or say. But certainly after the next attack we will be in a position to know if anything got done or not. If before then the Indus is breached frm the west then also I'd take quite satisfaction that our boys might, just might, have had a hand up the baki musharraf.


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PostPosted: 12 Jan 2009 23:27 
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Perhaps one element of some rag-tag Indian response could be a massive development program in J&K.

Now that J&K elections have been held, and the Jammu-wallahs and Kashmiris and Ladakhis have overwhelmingly voted for a new democratic dispensation, the Center could clear a major program to upgrade the hydel-power generation capacity in Jammu and Kashmir, which means a lot more dams should be built on the rivers including the Western ones.

Similarly the river systems ought to be integrated into one integrated rivers network.

When time comes, it becomes easier to turn off the tap.

At least the Kashmiris will get both jobs and Kashmir will get more funds from selling electricity to the rest of India.

Let the Kashmiris fight it out with the Pakistanis.


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